How we could change the planet's climate future | David Wallace-Wells

Transcriber: Ivana Korom Reviewer: Krystian Aparta

Prevoditelj: Vida Grujic Recezent: Sanda L

I'm here to talk about climate change,

Došao sam pričati o klimatskoj promjeni,

but I'm not really an environmentalist.

no zapravo nisam ekolog.

In fact, I've never really thought of myself as a nature person.

Zapravo, nikad se nisam ni smatrao obožavateljem prirode.

I have never gone camping, never gone hiking,

Nikada nisam išao kampirati ili planinariti,

never even owned a pet.

niti imao kućnog ljubimca.

I've lived my whole life in cities,

Cijeli život živim u gradovima,

actually just one city.

zapravo samo u jednom gradu.

And while I like to take trips to visit nature,

Iako volim otići na izlet u prirodu,

I always thought it was something that was happening elsewhere,

uvijek sam mislio da je priroda nešto što se događa negdje drugdje,

far away,

daleko,

with all of modern life a fortress against its forces.

s modernim načinom života kao tvrđavom za obranu od prirodnih sila.

In other words,

Drugim riječima,

like just about everybody I knew,

baš kao svi koje sam poznavao,

I lived my life complacent

svoj sam život proveo bezbrižno,

and deluded

bez ideje

about the threat from global warming.

o opasnosti koju predstavlja globalno zatopljenje.

Which I took to be happening slowly,

Mislio sam da to ide sporo,

happening at a distance

da se događa tamo negdje

and representing only a modest threat to the way that I lived.

i da predstavlja samo malu prijetnju mom dotadašnjem načinu života.

In each of these ways,

Na svaki od tih načina,

I was very, very wrong.

bio sam potpuno u krivu.

Now most people, if they were telling you about climate change,

Većina ljudi sada, kada govore o klimatskim promjenama,

pričaju priču o budućnosti.

will tell you a story about the future.

Da ja to radim, rekao bih,

If I was doing that, I would say,

"According to the UN, if we don't change course,

"Prema UN-u, ne promijenimo li smjer

do kraja stoljeća,

by the end of the century,

temperatura će vjerojatno porasti za 4 Celzijeva stupnja."

we're likely to get about four degrees Celsius of warming."

To bi značilo, prema mišljenju nekih znanstvenika,

That would mean, some scientists believe,

twice as much war,

dvostruko više ratova,

half as much food,

upola manje zaliha hrane,

a global GDP possibly 20 percent smaller than it would be without climate change.

a globalni BDP možda bi bio 20 % niži nego bez klimatskih promjena.

That's an impact that's deeper than the Great Depression,

Taj je utjecaj snažniji od onoga Velike gospodarske krize

and it would be permanent.

i bio bi trajan.

But the impacts are actually happening a lot faster than 2100.

No utjecaje ćemo osjetiti mnogo prije 2100. godine.

By just 2050, it's estimated,

Procijenjeno je da će do 2050.

many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East

mnogi najveći gradovi u Južnoj Aziji i na Bliskom istoku

will be almost literally unlivably hot in summer.

biti doslovno nevjerojatno vrući tijekom ljeta.

These are cities that today are home to 10, 12, 15 million people.

Ovi su gradovi danas dom 10, 12, 15 milijuna ljudi.

And in just three decades,

I u samo tri desetljeća

you wouldn't be able to walk around outside in them

u njima nećemo moći šetati vani

without risking heatstroke or possibly death.

bez rizika od infarkta ili čak i smrti.

The planet is now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer

Planet je već 1,1 Celzijev stupanj topliji

than it was before industrialization.

nego što je bio prije industrijalizacije.

That may not sound like a lot,

Možda ne zvuči puno,

but it actually puts us entirely outside the window of temperatures

no zapravo nas potpuno izbacuje iz temperaturnih okvira

that enclose all of human history.

cijele ljudske povijesti.

That means that everything we have ever known as a species,

To znači da sve što znamo kao vrsta,

the evolution of the human animal,

evolucija ljudske životinje,

the development of agriculture,

razvoj agrikulture,

the development of rudimentary civilization

razvoj rudimentarnih civilizacija

and modern civilization and industrial civilization,

te moderna i industrijska civilizacija,

everything we know about ourselves as biological creatures,

sve što znamo o sebi kao biološkim bićima,

as social creatures, as political creatures,

kao društvenim i političkim bićima,

all of it is the result of climate conditions

sve je rezultat klimatskih uvjeta

we have already left behind.

koji su već iza nas.

It's like we've landed on an entirely different planet,

Kao da smo sletjeli na drugi planet,

with an entirely different climate.

s potpuno drugačijom klimom.

And we now have to figure out

Sad trebamo shvatiti

what of the civilization that we've brought with us

što od civilizacije koju smo donijeli

can endure these new conditions

može izdržati ove nove uvjete,

and what can't.

a što ne može.

And things will get worse from here.

Sada se stvari počinju pogoršavati.

Now for a very long time,

Dugo su nam govorili

we were told that climate change was a slow saga.

da je klimatska promjena duga saga.

It started with the industrial revolution,

Počela je industrijskom revolucijom

and it had fallen to us

i mi sada moramo

to clean up the mess left by our grandparents

počistiti nered koji su ostavili naši preci

so our grandchildren wouldn't be dealing with the results.

kako se naši unuci ne bi trebali nositi s posljedicama.

It was a story of centuries.

Ta je priča trajala stoljećima.

In fact, half of all of the emissions

Zapravo, pola emisija

that have ever been produced from the burning of fossil fuels

koje su ikad proizvedene izgaranjem fosilnih goriva

in the entire history of humanity

u cijeloj povijesti čovječanstva

have been produced in just the last 30 years.

proizvedeno je samo u posljednjih 30 godina.

That's since Al Gore published his first book on warming.

To je od kada je Al Gore objavio svoju prvu knjigu o zatopljenju.

It's since the UN established its IPCC climate change body.

Od kada je UN osnovao tijelo za klimatske promjene IPCC.

We've done more damage since then

Od onda smo učinili više štete

than in all the centuries, all the millennia before.

nego što je učinjeno u svim stoljećima i tisućljećima prije nas.

Now I'm 37 years old,

Imam 37 godina,

which means my life contains this entire story.

što znači da moj život sadrži cijelu ovu priču.

When I was born, the planet's climate seemed stable.

Kada sam se rodio, klima planeta činila se stabilnom.

Today,

Danas,

we are on the brink of catastrophe.

na rubu smo katastrofe.

The climate crisis is not the legacy of our ancestors.

Klimatsku krizu nisu nam ostavili preci u naslijeđe.

It is the work of a single generation.

To je rad jedne generacije.

Ours.

Naše.

This may all sound like bad news.

Možda ovo zvuči kao loša vijest.

Which it is, really bad news.

Što zapravo i jest, jako loša vijest.

But it also contains, I think,

No također ima, mislim,

some good news, at least relatively speaking.

i neke dobre vijesti, barem relativno govoreći.

These impacts are terrifyingly large.

Ovi su utjecaji zastrašujuće veliki.

But they are also, I think, exhilarating.

No također su, mislim, uzbudljivi.

Because they are ultimately a reflection

Na kraju, odsjaj su

of how much power we have over the climate.

moći koju zapravo imamo nad klimom.

If we get to those hellish scenarios,

Ako dođemo do onih paklenskih scenarija,

it will be because we have made them happen,

to će biti jer smo ih sami omogućili,

because we have chosen to make them happen.

jer smo ih odabrali omogućiti.

Which means we can choose to make other scenarios happen, too.

Što znači da možemo omogućiti i druge scenarije.

Now that may seem too rosy to believe

To se može činiti previše lijepim za povjerovati

and the political obstacles are in fact enormous.

i političke prepreke zapravo su ogromne.

But it is a simple fact --

No stvar je jednostavna --

the main driver of global warming is human action:

glavni uzrok zatopljenja ljudsko je djelovanje:

How much carbon we put into the atmosphere.

koliko ugljika otpuštamo u atmosferu.

Our hands are on those levers.

Naše su ruke na tim polugama.

And we can write the story of the planet's climate future ourselves.

I sami možemo napisati priču klimatske budućnosti planeta.

Not just can -- but are.

Ne samo da možemo -- to već i radimo.

Since inaction is a kind of action,

Kako je neaktivnost vrsta aktivnosti,

we'll be writing that story ourselves whether we like it or not.

pisat ćemo tu priču svidjelo se to nama ili ne.

This is not just any story,

Ovo nije bilo koja priča,

all of us holding the future of the planet in our hands.

budućnost planeta u rukama je svih nas.

It's the kind of story we used to recognize only in mythology

To je priča poput onih koje smo prepoznavali samo u mitologiji

and theology.

i teologiji.

A single generation

Jedna generacija

that has brought the future of humanity into doubt

koja je u pitanje dovela budućnost čovječanstva

now tasked with securing a new future.

i čiji je zadatak sada osigurati novu budućnost.

So what would that look like?

Kako bi to izgledalo?

It could mean solar arrays barnacling the planet,

To bi mogli biti nizovi solarnih ploča po cijelom planetu,

really everywhere you looked.

gdje god da se okrenete.

It could mean if we developed better technology,

To bi moglo značiti da ako razvijemo bolju tehnologiju,

we wouldn't even need to deploy them that broadly,

ne bismo ih ni trebali toliko široko koristiti,

because it's been estimated that just a sliver of the Sahara desert

jer je procijenjeno da samo dio pustinje Sahara

absorbs enough solar power to provide all the world's energy needs.

apsorbira dovoljno sunčeve energije za potrebe cijelog svijeta.

But we'd probably need a new electric grid,

No vjerojatno bi nam trebala nova električna mreža,

one that doesn't lose two-thirds of its power to waste heat,

ona koja ne gubi dvije trećine energije na otpadnu toplinu,

as is today the case in the US.

kao što je slučaj u SAD-u danas.

We could use some more nuclear power, perhaps,

Mogli bismo koristiti više nuklearne energije, možda,

although it would have to be an entirely different kind of nuclear power,

iako bi to trebala biti potpuno nova vrsta nuklearne energije,

because today's technology simply isn't cost-competitive

jer današnja tehnologija cjenovno nije kompetitivna

with renewable energy whose costs are falling so rapidly.

energiji iz obnovljivih izvora čije cijene ubrzano padaju.

We'd need a new kind of plane,

Trebala bi nam nova vrsta zrakoplova,

because I don't think it's particularly practical

jer mislim da nije baš praktično

to ask the entire world to give up on air travel,

zatražiti da cijeli svijet više ne putuje zrakom,

especially as so much of the global South

pogotovo jer veliki dio globalnog juga

is, for the very first time, able to afford it.

tek sada, po prvi put si to može priuštiti.

We need planes that won't produce carbon.

Trebaju nam zrakoplovi koji ne proizvode ugljik.

We need a new kind of agriculture.

Treba nam nova vrsta poljoprivrede.

Because we probably can't ask people to entirely give up on meat and go vegan,

Jer ne možemo tražiti da ljudi potpuno odustanu od mesa i postanu vegani,

to bi značilo nove načine uzgoja goveda.

it would mean a new way of raising beef.

Or perhaps an old way,

Ili možda stari način,

since we already know that traditional pasturing practices

budući već poznajemo tradicionalne prakse ispaše,

can turn cattle farms

može preobraziti farme stoke

from what are called carbon sources, which produce CO2,

iz takozvanih izvora ugljika, koje proizvode CO2,

into carbon sinks, which absorb them.

u spremišta ugljika koji će ga apsorbirati.

If you prefer a techno solution,

Ako vam je draža tehnologija,

maybe we can grow some of that mean in the lab.

možda neko od tog mesa možemo uzgojiti u laboratoriju.

Probably, we could also feed some real cattle seaweed,

Pravu stoku mogli bismo hraniti morskim algama,

because that cuts their methane emissions by as much as 95 or 99 percent.

jer bi to smanjilo njihovu emisiju metana za čak 95 ili 99 %.

Probably, we'd have to do all of these things,

Vjerojatno bismo morali učiniti sve ovo,

because as with every aspect of this puzzle,

jer kao i sa svakim aspektom ove slagalice

the problem is simply too vast and complicated

problem je jednostavno preširok i prekompliciran

to solve in any single silver-bullet way.

da bi se riješio jednim potezom.

And no matter how many solutions we deploy,

I bez obzira na broj rješenja koja koristimo,

we probably won't be able to decarbonize in time.

vjerojatno se nećemo uspjeti dekarbonizirati na vrijeme.

That's the terrifying math that we face.

Suočeni smo s tom strašnom matematikom.

We won't be able to beat climate change,

Nećemo uspjeti pobijediti klimatsku promjenu,

only live with it and limit it.

možemo samo živjeti s njom i ograničiti je.

And that means we'd probably need

A to znači vjerojatnu potrebu

some amount of what are called negative emissions,

za nečim što se naziva negativnom emisijom,

which take carbon out of the atmosphere as well.

koja uzima ugljik iz atmosfere.

Billions of new trees, maybe trillions of new trees.

Milijarde novih stabala, možda i trilijuni.

And whole plantations of carbon-capture machines.

I cijele plantaže uređaja za upijanje ugljika.

Perhaps an industry twice or four times the size

Možda industrija koja je dva ili tri puta veća

of today's oil and gas business

od današnje industrije nafte i plina,

to undo the damage that was done by those businesses in past decades.

kako bi se poništila šteta nanesena tom industrijom u prošlim desetljećima.

We would need a new kind of infrastructure,

Trebala bi nam i nova vrsta infrastrukture,

poured by a different kind of cement,

s drugačijom vrstom cementa,

because today, if cement were a country,

jer danas, da je cement država,

it would be the world's third biggest emitter.

bio bi treći najveći emiter.

And China is pouring as much cement every three years

Kina svake tri godine polije cementa

as the US poured in the entire 20th century.

koliko i SAD tijekom cijelog 20. stoljeća.

We would need to build seawalls and levees

Trebali bismo izgraditi morske zidove i nasipe

to protect those people living on the coast,

za zaštitu ljudi koji žive na obali,

many of whom are too poor to build them today,

a mnogi su presiromašni da bi ih danas sagradili,

which is why it must mean an end to a narrowly nationalistic geopolitics

zbog čega to mora značiti i kraj usko nacionalističke geopolitike

that allows us to define the suffering of those living elsewhere in the world

koja nam omogućuje definirati patnju onih koji žive negdje drugdje na svijetu

as insignificant,

kao nevažnih,

when we even acknowledge it.

dok ih mi jedva i priznamo.

This better future won't be easy.

Ta bolja budućnost neće biti laka.

But the only obstacles are human ones.

No jedine su prepreke one ljudske.

That may not be much of a comfort,

To možda i nije neka utjeha,

if you know what I know about human brutality and indifference,

kada znate što ja znam o ljudskoj okrutnosti i ravnodušnosti,

but I promise you, it is better than the alternative.

no obećavam, bolja je od alternative.

Science isn't stopping us from taking action,

Znanost nas ne sprječava u djelovanju,

and neither is technology.

kao ni tehnologija.

We have the tools we need today to begin.

Imamo alate koji nam trebaju da počnemo već danas.

Of course, we also have the tools we need to end global poverty,

Imamo i alate koji nam trebaju za zaustavljanje globalnog siromaštva,

epidemic disease

epidemije

and the abuse of women as well.

i zlostavljanja žena.

Which is why more than new tools, we need a new politics,

Zbog toga nam više od novih alata treba nova politika,

a way of overcoming all those human obstacles --

način svladavanja svih tih ljudskih prepreka --

our culture, our economics,

naše kulture, ekonomije,

our status quo bias,

pristranosti statusu quo,

our disinterest in taking seriously anything that really scares us.

nezainteresiranosti za ozbiljno shvaćanje svega što nas zaista plaši.

Our shortsightedness.

Naše kratkovidnosti.

Our sense of self-interest.

Našeg smisla za vlastiti interes.

And the selfishness of the world's rich and powerful

I sebičnosti bogatih i moćnih

who have the least incentive to change anything.

čija je motivacija da nešto promijene najmanja.

Now, they will suffer too,

I oni će patiti,

but not as much as those with the least,

ali ne toliko kao oni koji imaju najmanje,

who have done the least to produce warming

koji su najmanje pridonijeli zatopljenju

and have benefited the least

i najmanje profitirali

from the processes that have brought us to this crisis point

od postupaka koji su nas doveli u ovu kriznu situaciju,

but will be burdened most in the decades ahead.

ali koji će najviše osjetiti teret u desetljećima koja su pred nama.

A new politics

Nova politika

would make the matter of managing that burden,

potrudila bi se upravljati tim teretom,

where it falls and how heavily,

gdje će pasti i koliki će utjecaj imati,

the top priority of our time.

učinila bi ga prioritetom našeg vremena.

No matter what we do, climate change will transform modern life.

Bez obzira na to što radimo, klimatska promjena preobrazit će moderni život.

Some amount of warming is already baked in and is inevitable,

Dio zatopljenja već je počeo i neizbježan je,

which means probably some amount of additional suffering is, too.

što znači da će vjerojatno doći i do dodatnog utjecaja.

And even if we take dramatic action

Čak i ako poduzmemo dramatične mjere

and avoid some of these truly terrifying worst-case scenarios,

i izbjegnemo neke od ovih zaista strašnih scenarija najgorih slučajeva,

it would mean living on an entirely different planet.

to bi značilo živjeti na potpuno drugačijem planetu.

With a new politics, a new economics,

S novom politikom, novom ekonomijom,

a new relationship to technology

novim odnosom prema tehnologiji

and a new relationship to nature --

i novom povezanosti s prirodom --

a whole new world.

cijeli novi svijet.

But a relatively livable one.

Onaj u kojem se relativno može živjeti.

Relatively prosperous.

Relativno prosperitetan.

And green.

I zelen.

Why not choose that one?

Zašto ga ne bismo odabrali?

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)