Deb Roy: The birth of a word

401,378 views ・ 2011-03-14

TED


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Prevoditelj: Katarina Smetko Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG
00:15
Imagine if you could record your life --
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Zamislite da možete snimiti svoj život --
00:19
everything you said, everything you did,
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sve što ste rekli, sve što ste učinili,
00:22
available in a perfect memory store at your fingertips,
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dostupno savršeno pohranjeno, na dohvat ruke,
00:25
so you could go back
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tako da se možete vratiti,
00:27
and find memorable moments and relive them,
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pronaći značajne trenutke i ponovno ih proživjeti,
00:30
or sift through traces of time
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ili preletjeti kroz tragove vremena
00:33
and discover patterns in your own life
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i otkriti uzorke u vlastitom životu
00:35
that previously had gone undiscovered.
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koje ranije niste ni primijetili.
00:38
Well that's exactly the journey
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Točno je na takvo putovanje
00:40
that my family began
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krenula moja obitelj
00:42
five and a half years ago.
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prije pet i pol godina.
00:44
This is my wife and collaborator, Rupal.
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Ovo je moja supruga i suradnica, Rupal.
00:47
And on this day, at this moment,
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Ovog smo dana i u ovom trenutku
00:49
we walked into the house with our first child,
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ušli u kuću s našim prvim djetetom,
00:51
our beautiful baby boy.
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našim prekrasnim sinom.
00:53
And we walked into a house
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Ušli smo u kuću
00:56
with a very special home video recording system.
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s vrlo posebnim sustavom za kućno snimanje.
01:07
(Video) Man: Okay.
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(Video) Muškarac: U redu.
01:10
Deb Roy: This moment
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Deb Roy: Taj trenutak
01:11
and thousands of other moments special for us
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i tisuće drugih posebnih trenutaka
01:14
were captured in our home
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zabilježeni su u našem domu
01:16
because in every room in the house,
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jer u svakoj sobi u našoj kući,
01:18
if you looked up, you'd see a camera and a microphone,
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ako biste podigli pogled, vidjeli biste kameru i mikrofon,
01:21
and if you looked down,
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a ako biste pogledali prema dolje,
01:23
you'd get this bird's-eye view of the room.
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dobili biste ptičju perspektivu sobe.
01:25
Here's our living room,
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Ovo je naša dnevna soba,
01:28
the baby bedroom,
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dječja soba,
01:31
kitchen, dining room
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kuhinja, blagovaonica,
01:33
and the rest of the house.
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i ostatak kuće.
01:35
And all of these fed into a disc array
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Sve se to spremalo na niz diskova
01:38
that was designed for a continuous capture.
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izrađenih za trajno snimanje.
01:41
So here we are flying through a day in our home
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Sada ubrzano gledamo jedan dan u našem domu.
01:44
as we move from sunlit morning
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Krećemo od sunčanog jutra
01:47
through incandescent evening
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preko osvijetljene večeri
01:49
and, finally, lights out for the day.
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i na kraju gasimo svjetla.
01:53
Over the course of three years,
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Tijekom tri godine
01:56
we recorded eight to 10 hours a day,
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snimali smo 8 do 10 sati na dan,
01:58
amassing roughly a quarter-million hours
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što na kraju čini oko četvrt milijuna sati
02:01
of multi-track audio and video.
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paralelno snimanog audio i video materijala.
02:04
So you're looking at a piece of what is by far
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Dakle, gledate dio daleko najveće
02:06
the largest home video collection ever made.
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kolekcije kućnih videa ikad napravljene.
02:08
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:11
And what this data represents
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Ono što ovi podaci predstavljaju
02:13
for our family at a personal level,
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našoj obitelji na osobnoj razini,
02:17
the impact has already been immense,
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utjecaj je već do sada ogroman,
02:19
and we're still learning its value.
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i još uvijek otkrivamo njihovu vrijednost.
02:22
Countless moments
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Bezbrojni trenuci
02:24
of unsolicited natural moments, not posed moments,
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neglumljenih prirodnih trenutaka, nenamještenih,
02:27
are captured there,
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ovdje su zabilježeni,
02:29
and we're starting to learn how to discover them and find them.
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i polako ih učimo otkrivati i tražiti.
02:32
But there's also a scientific reason that drove this project,
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Ali postoji i znanstveni razlog za ovaj projekt,
02:35
which was to use this natural longitudinal data
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a to je da upotrijebimo ove prirodne linearne podatke
02:39
to understand the process
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kako bismo shvatili proces
02:41
of how a child learns language --
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kojim dijete uči jezik --
02:43
that child being my son.
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a to dijete je moj sin.
02:45
And so with many privacy provisions put in place
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I tako, s mnogim ograničenjima zbog privatnosti,
02:49
to protect everyone who was recorded in the data,
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kako bismo zaštitili sve koji su snimljeni,
02:52
we made elements of the data available
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učinili smo dijelove podataka dostupnima
02:55
to my trusted research team at MIT
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mojem istraživačkom timu na MIT-u
02:58
so we could start teasing apart patterns
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kako bismo mogli početi izdvajati uzorke
03:01
in this massive data set,
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u tom ogromnom skupu podataka,
03:04
trying to understand the influence of social environments
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pokušavajući shvatiti utjecaj društvene sredine
03:07
on language acquisition.
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na usvajanje jezika.
03:09
So we're looking here
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Sada gledamo
03:11
at one of the first things we started to do.
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jednu od prvih stvari koje smo počeli raditi.
03:13
This is my wife and I cooking breakfast in the kitchen,
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Ovdje moja supruga i ja spremamo doručak u kuhinji.
03:17
and as we move through space and through time,
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Kako se krećemo kroz prostor i vrijeme,
03:20
a very everyday pattern of life in the kitchen.
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svakodnevni uzorak života u kuhinji.
03:23
In order to convert
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Kako bismo pretvorili
03:25
this opaque, 90,000 hours of video
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ovih mutnih 90.000 sati snimaka
03:28
into something that we could start to see,
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u nešto što možemo jasno vidjeti,
03:30
we use motion analysis to pull out,
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koristimo analizu pokreta kako bismo izvukli,
03:32
as we move through space and through time,
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dok se krećemo kroz prostor i vrijeme,
03:34
what we call space-time worms.
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ono što zovemo prostorno-vremenskim crvima.
03:37
And this has become part of our toolkit
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I to je postao dio našeg alata
03:40
for being able to look and see
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koji smo koristili kako bismo vidjeli
03:43
where the activities are in the data,
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gdje se aktivnosti nalaze u podacima,
03:45
and with it, trace the pattern of, in particular,
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i njima pratimo uzorke, konkretno,
03:48
where my son moved throughout the home,
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kuda se moj sin kretao kroz kuću,
03:50
so that we could focus our transcription efforts,
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kako bismo mogli rad na transkriptima
03:53
all of the speech environment around my son --
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i govornu okolinu mogli usredotočiti na mojeg sina --
03:56
all of the words that he heard from myself, my wife, our nanny,
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sve riječi koje je čuo od mene, moje supruge, naše dadilje,
03:59
and over time, the words he began to produce.
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i, s vremenom, na riječi koje je počeo izgovarati.
04:02
So with that technology and that data
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S tom tehnologijom i tim podacima
04:05
and the ability to, with machine assistance,
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i s mogućnošću da
04:07
transcribe speech,
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uz pomoć strojeva transkribiramo govor,
04:09
we've now transcribed
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do sada smo transkribirali
04:11
well over seven million words of our home transcripts.
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više od sedam milijuna riječi s naših kućnih transkripata.
04:14
And with that, let me take you now
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S tim na umu, sad ću vam predstaviti
04:16
for a first tour into the data.
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prvi pregled podataka.
04:19
So you've all, I'm sure,
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Svi ste, siguran sam,
04:21
seen time-lapse videos
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vidjeli ubrzane videosnimke,
04:23
where a flower will blossom as you accelerate time.
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na kojima je ubrzano prikazan cvat cvijeta.
04:26
I'd like you to now experience
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Sada bih vam volio dočarati
04:28
the blossoming of a speech form.
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cvat govornog oblika.
04:30
My son, soon after his first birthday,
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Moj sin je, nedugo nakon prvog rođendana,
04:32
would say "gaga" to mean water.
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govorio "gaga", što je značilo "voda".
04:35
And over the course of the next half-year,
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Tijekom narednih pola godine
04:38
he slowly learned to approximate
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polako se približavao
04:40
the proper adult form, "water."
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ispravnom obliku koji koriste odrasli, "voda".
04:43
So we're going to cruise through half a year
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Sad ćemo proletjeti kroz pola godine
04:45
in about 40 seconds.
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u otprilike 40 sekundi.
04:47
No video here,
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Ovdje nema videozapisa,
04:49
so you can focus on the sound, the acoustics,
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tako da se možete usredotočiti na zvuk, na akustiku
04:52
of a new kind of trajectory:
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nove vrste putanje:
04:54
gaga to water.
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od "gaga" do vode.
04:56
(Audio) Baby: Gagagagagaga
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(Zvuk) Dijete: Gagagagagaga
05:08
Gaga gaga gaga
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Gaga gaga gaga
05:12
guga guga guga
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guga guga guga
05:17
wada gaga gaga guga gaga
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wada gaga gaga guga gaga
05:22
wader guga guga
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wada guga guga
05:26
water water water
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voda voda voda
05:29
water water water
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voda voda voda
05:35
water water
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voda voda
05:39
water.
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voda.
05:41
DR: He sure nailed it, didn't he.
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DR: Odlično je to svladao, za ne?
05:43
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
05:50
So he didn't just learn water.
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I nije naučio samo vodu.
05:52
Over the course of the 24 months,
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Tijekom 24 mjeseca,
05:54
the first two years that we really focused on,
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prve dvije godine, na koje smo se najviše usredotočili,
05:57
this is a map of every word he learned in chronological order.
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ovo je prikaz svih riječi koje je naučio, kronološkim redom.
06:01
And because we have full transcripts,
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A budući da imamo potpune transkripte,
06:04
we've identified each of the 503 words
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identificirali smo svaku od 503 riječi
06:06
that he learned to produce by his second birthday.
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koje je naučio do drugog rođendana.
06:08
He was an early talker.
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Rano je progovorio.
06:10
And so we started to analyze why.
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I počeli smo analizirati zašto.
06:13
Why were certain words born before others?
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Zašto su se neke riječi "rodile" prije drugih?
06:16
This is one of the first results
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Ovo je jedan od prvih rezultata koje smo dobili
06:18
that came out of our study a little over a year ago
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iz našeg istraživanja prije nešto više od godinu dana
06:20
that really surprised us.
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i koji nas je zaista iznenadio.
06:22
The way to interpret this apparently simple graph
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Na ovom naizgled jednostavnom grafu
06:25
is, on the vertical is an indication
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na okomitoj osi prikazana je kompleksnost
06:27
of how complex caregiver utterances are
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rečenica koje su izgovarali odrasli,
06:30
based on the length of utterances.
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a temeljeno na dužini rečenica.
06:32
And the [horizontal] axis is time.
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A na horizontalnoj osi je vrijeme.
06:35
And all of the data,
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I sve smo podatke
06:37
we aligned based on the following idea:
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poredali prema sljedećem principu:
06:40
Every time my son would learn a word,
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svaki put kad bi moj sin naučio riječ,
06:43
we would trace back and look at all of the language he heard
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pratili bismo podatke unatrag i gledali sav govor koji je čuo
06:46
that contained that word.
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i koji je sadržavao tu riječ
06:48
And we would plot the relative length of the utterances.
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i ucrtali bismo relativnu duljinu tih rečenica.
06:52
And what we found was this curious phenomena,
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Tako smo otkrili ovaj zanimljiv fenomen:
06:55
that caregiver speech would systematically dip to a minimum,
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govor odrasle osobe sustavno se svodio na minimum,
06:58
making language as simple as possible,
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čineći govor što jednostavnijim,
07:01
and then slowly ascend back up in complexity.
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a zatim bi ponovno postupno postao sve složeniji.
07:04
And the amazing thing was
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Ono što nas je zadivilo
07:06
that bounce, that dip,
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bio je taj pad, to pojednostavljenje,
07:08
lined up almost precisely
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koje se gotovo potpuno poklapa
07:10
with when each word was born --
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s trenutkom "rođenja" svake riječi --
07:12
word after word, systematically.
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i tako sustavno, za svaku riječ.
07:14
So it appears that all three primary caregivers --
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Tako izgleda da su sva tri primarna skrbnika --
07:16
myself, my wife and our nanny --
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ja, moja supruga i naša dadilja --
07:19
were systematically and, I would think, subconsciously
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sustavno i, rekao bih, podsvjesno,
07:22
restructuring our language
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rekonstruirala jezik
07:24
to meet him at the birth of a word
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kako bi se susreli s njim prilikom rođenja riječi
07:27
and bring him gently into more complex language.
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i nježno ga uveli u složeniji govor.
07:31
And the implications of this -- there are many,
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Pretpostavka je sljedeća -- ima ih više,
07:33
but one I just want to point out,
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ali ovu želim istaknuti:
07:35
is that there must be amazing feedback loops.
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postoje zadivljujuće petlje povratnih informacija.
07:38
Of course, my son is learning
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Naravno, moj sin uči
07:40
from his linguistic environment,
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od svoje jezične okoline,
07:42
but the environment is learning from him.
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ali i okolina uči od njega.
07:45
That environment, people, are in these tight feedback loops
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Ta okolina, ljudi, dio su petlji povratnih informacija
07:48
and creating a kind of scaffolding
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i grade neku vrstu skele
07:50
that has not been noticed until now.
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koja do sad još nije bila uočena.
07:54
But that's looking at the speech context.
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Ali to se odnosi samo na govorni kontekst.
07:56
What about the visual context?
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Što je s vizualnim kontekstom?
07:58
We're not looking at --
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Sad gledamo --
08:00
think of this as a dollhouse cutaway of our house.
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zamislite ovo kao presjek naše kuće, poput kućice za lutke.
08:02
We've taken those circular fish-eye lens cameras,
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Uzeli smo kružne leće u obliku ribljeg oka
08:05
and we've done some optical correction,
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i napravili smo neke optičke korekcije,
08:07
and then we can bring it into three-dimensional life.
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nakon čega smo mogli stvoriti stvaran trodimenzionalni prikaz.
08:11
So welcome to my home.
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Pa, dobrodošli u moj dom.
08:13
This is a moment,
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Ovo je trenutak,
08:15
one moment captured across multiple cameras.
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jedan trenutak zabilježen na više kamera.
08:18
The reason we did this is to create the ultimate memory machine,
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Razlog zbog kojeg smo to učinili jest da bismo stvorili najbolji memorijski stroj,
08:21
where you can go back and interactively fly around
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u kojem se možete vraćati i interaktivno se kretati
08:24
and then breathe video-life into this system.
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i zatim udahnuti život ovom sustavu.
08:27
What I'm going to do
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Sada ću vam prikazati
08:29
is give you an accelerated view of 30 minutes,
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ubrzan pregled 30 minuta
08:32
again, of just life in the living room.
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svakodnevnog života u dnevnom boravku.
08:34
That's me and my son on the floor.
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To smo ja i moj sin na podu.
08:37
And there's video analytics
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A ovo su videoanalize
08:39
that are tracking our movements.
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koje prate naše pokrete.
08:41
My son is leaving red ink. I am leaving green ink.
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Moj sin ostavlja crveni trag, a ja ostavljam zeleni trag.
08:44
We're now on the couch,
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Sad smo na kauču,
08:46
looking out through the window at cars passing by.
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gledamo kroz prozor automobile koji prolaze.
08:49
And finally, my son playing in a walking toy by himself.
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I na kraju, moj sin se sam igra u hodalici.
08:52
Now we freeze the action, 30 minutes,
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Sad zamrznemo snimku, 30 minuta,
08:55
we turn time into the vertical axis,
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prikažemo vrijeme na okomitoj osi,
08:57
and we open up for a view
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i dobivamo pregled
08:59
of these interaction traces we've just left behind.
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interaktivnih tragova koje smo ostavljali.
09:02
And we see these amazing structures --
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Vidimo te zadivljujuće strukture --
09:05
these little knots of two colors of thread
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te male čvorove dviju boja,
09:08
we call "social hot spots."
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koje nazivamo društvenim žarištima.
09:10
The spiral thread
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Spiralni trag
09:12
we call a "solo hot spot."
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nazivamo samostalnim žarištem.
09:14
And we think that these affect the way language is learned.
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Mislimo da to utječe na način na koji se uči jezik.
09:17
What we'd like to do
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Htjeli bismo
09:19
is start understanding
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početi shvaćati
09:21
the interaction between these patterns
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interakciju između ovih uzoraka
09:23
and the language that my son is exposed to
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i govora kojem je moj sin izložen
09:25
to see if we can predict
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kako bismo pokušali predvidjeti
09:27
how the structure of when words are heard
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kako struktura vremena u kojem se riječi čuju
09:29
affects when they're learned --
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utječe na vrijeme u kojem se nauče --
09:31
so in other words, the relationship
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odnosno, drugim riječima, vezu
09:33
between words and what they're about in the world.
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između riječi i onoga što one znače u svijetu.
09:37
So here's how we're approaching this.
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Evo kako mi pristupamo tome.
09:39
In this video,
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U ovom videu,
09:41
again, my son is being traced out.
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ponovno, pratimo mog sina.
09:43
He's leaving red ink behind.
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On ostavlja crveni trag.
09:45
And there's our nanny by the door.
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Ovo je naša dadilja, pored vrata.
09:47
(Video) Nanny: You want water? (Baby: Aaaa.)
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(Video) Dadilja: Hoćeš vode? (Dijete: Aaaa.)
09:50
Nanny: All right. (Baby: Aaaa.)
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Dadilja: U redu. (Dijete: Aaaa.)
09:53
DR: She offers water,
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DR: Ona nudi vodu,
09:55
and off go the two worms
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i dva crva odlaze
09:57
over to the kitchen to get water.
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u kuhinju po vodu.
09:59
And what we've done is use the word "water"
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Upotrijebili smo riječ "voda"
10:01
to tag that moment, that bit of activity.
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da bismo označili taj trenutak, taj dio aktivnosti.
10:03
And now we take the power of data
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A sada koristimo moć podataka
10:05
and take every time my son
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i dobivamo svaki trenutak kad je moj sin
10:08
ever heard the word water
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čuo riječ voda
10:10
and the context he saw it in,
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i kontekst u kojem ju je vidio.
10:12
and we use it to penetrate through the video
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Koristimo to kako bismo prošli kroz video
10:15
and find every activity trace
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i pronašli svaki trag aktivnosti
10:18
that co-occurred with an instance of water.
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koja se pojavila u istom trenutku kad i voda.
10:21
And what this data leaves in its wake
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Ono što je nastalo kao posljedica tih podataka
10:23
is a landscape.
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jest krajolik.
10:25
We call these wordscapes.
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Ovo nazivamo "rječolikom".
10:27
This is the wordscape for the word water,
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Ovo je rječolik za riječ voda,
10:29
and you can see most of the action is in the kitchen.
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i možete vidjeti da je većina aktivnosti u kuhinji.♫
10:31
That's where those big peaks are over to the left.
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Tu se nalaze ovi veliki vrhovi s lijeve strane.
10:34
And just for contrast, we can do this with any word.
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Samo za usporedbu, tako možemo prikazati svaku riječ.
10:37
We can take the word "bye"
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Možemo uzeti riječ "đenja",
10:39
as in "good bye."
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kao u "do viđenja".
10:41
And we're now zoomed in over the entrance to the house.
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I sad smo prebačeni pred ulaz u kuću.
10:43
And we look, and we find, as you would expect,
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Otkrivamo, kao što bi se i očekivalo,
10:46
a contrast in the landscape
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da postoji razlika u krajoliku,
10:48
where the word "bye" occurs much more in a structured way.
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pri čemu se riječ "đenja" pojavljuje mnogo pravilnije.
10:51
So we're using these structures
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Dakle, koristimo te strukture
10:53
to start predicting
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kako bismo počeli predviđati
10:55
the order of language acquisition,
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redoslijed usvajanja jezika,
10:58
and that's ongoing work now.
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i još uvijek radimo na tome.
11:00
In my lab, which we're peering into now, at MIT --
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U mojem laboratoriju na MIT-u, koji sada gledamo --
11:03
this is at the media lab.
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ovo je u medijskom laboratoriju.
11:05
This has become my favorite way
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Ovo je postao moj omiljeni način
11:07
of videographing just about any space.
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grafičkog videoprikaza svakog prostora.
11:09
Three of the key people in this project,
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Troje ključnih ljudi u ovom projektu,
11:11
Philip DeCamp, Rony Kubat and Brandon Roy are pictured here.
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Philip DeCamp, Rony Kubat i Brandon Roy prikazani su ovdje.
11:14
Philip has been a close collaborator
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Philip mi je bio bliski suradnik
11:16
on all the visualizations you're seeing.
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pri izradi vizualizacija koje gledate.
11:18
And Michael Fleischman
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A Michael Fleischman
11:21
was another Ph.D. student in my lab
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također je bio student na doktoratu u mojem laboratoriju
11:23
who worked with me on this home video analysis,
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koji je sa mnom radio na ovoj analizi kućnog videa,
11:26
and he made the following observation:
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i on je primijetio sljedeće:
11:29
that "just the way that we're analyzing
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"način na koji analiziramo
11:31
how language connects to events
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kako je jezik povezan s događajima
11:34
which provide common ground for language,
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koji predstavljaju zajednički temelj jezika,
11:36
that same idea we can take out of your home, Deb,
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tu istu ideju možemo primijeniti i izvan tvoje kuće, Deb,
11:40
and we can apply it to the world of public media."
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i možemo je primijeniti na svijet javnih medija."
11:43
And so our effort took an unexpected turn.
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I tako je naš rad krenuo u neočekivanom smjeru.
11:46
Think of mass media
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Zamislite kako masovni mediji
11:48
as providing common ground
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tvore zajednički temelj,
11:50
and you have the recipe
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a vi imate recept
11:52
for taking this idea to a whole new place.
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kako tu ideju prenijeti na neku višu razinu.
11:55
We've started analyzing television content
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Počeli smo analizirati televizijski sadržaj
11:58
using the same principles --
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koristeći iste principe --
12:00
analyzing event structure of a TV signal --
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analizu strukture događaja TV signala --
12:03
episodes of shows,
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epizode emisija,
12:05
commercials,
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reklame,
12:07
all of the components that make up the event structure.
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sve sastavnice koje čine strukturu događaja.
12:10
And we're now, with satellite dishes, pulling and analyzing
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Sada, pomoću satelitskih tanjura, skupljamo i analiziramo
12:13
a good part of all the TV being watched in the United States.
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dobar dio cjelokupnog TV programa koji se gleda u SAD-u.
12:16
And you don't have to now go and instrument living rooms with microphones
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I sad ne trebate opremati dnevne boravke mikrofonima
12:19
to get people's conversations,
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da biste čuli razgovore drugih ljudi,
12:21
you just tune into publicly available social media feeds.
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samo se uključite u javno dostupne društvene medije.
12:24
So we're pulling in
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Tako da prikupljamo
12:26
about three billion comments a month,
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oko tri milijuna komentara mjesečno.
12:28
and then the magic happens.
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I tada se događa čarolija.
12:30
You have the event structure,
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Imate strukturu događaja,
12:32
the common ground that the words are about,
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zajedničku točku svih riječi
12:34
coming out of the television feeds;
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koje dolaze iz televizijskih emisija;
12:37
you've got the conversations
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Imate razgovore
12:39
that are about those topics;
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koji su o tim temama;
12:41
and through semantic analysis --
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i kroz semantičku analizu --
12:44
and this is actually real data you're looking at
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sad gledate prave, stvarne podatke
12:46
from our data processing --
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iz naše obrade podataka --
12:48
each yellow line is showing a link being made
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svaka žuta linija označuje vezu koja se stvara
12:51
between a comment in the wild
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između nevezanog komentara
12:54
and a piece of event structure coming out of the television signal.
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i dijela strukture događaja koja dolazi iz televizijskog signala.
12:57
And the same idea now
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I ta se ista ideja
12:59
can be built up.
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sad može nadograditi.
13:01
And we get this wordscape,
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Tako da dobivamo ovaj rječolik,
13:03
except now words are not assembled in my living room.
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osim što riječi sada nisu složene u mojem dnevnom boravku.
13:06
Instead, the context, the common ground activities,
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Umjesto toga, kontekst, zajedničke aktivnosti,
13:10
are the content on television that's driving the conversations.
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sadržaj su na televiziji koji stvara razgovore.
13:13
And what we're seeing here, these skyscrapers now,
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Ovo što ovdje vidimo, ovi neboderi,
13:16
are commentary
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jesu komentari
13:18
that are linked to content on television.
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koji su povezani s televizijskim sadržajem.
13:20
Same concept,
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Isti koncept,
13:22
but looking at communication dynamics
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osim što se gleda dinamika komunikacije
13:24
in a very different sphere.
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u vrlo različitoj sferi.
13:26
And so fundamentally, rather than, for example,
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Tako da, u biti, umjesto da, primjerice
13:28
measuring content based on how many people are watching,
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mjerimo sadržaj na temelju broja gledatelja,
13:31
this gives us the basic data
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ovo nam daje osnovne podatke
13:33
for looking at engagement properties of content.
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za razumijevanje poticajnih svojstava sadržaja.
13:36
And just like we can look at feedback cycles
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I baš kao što možemo gledati povratne cikluse
13:39
and dynamics in a family,
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i dinamiku u obitelji,
13:42
we can now open up the same concepts
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sad možemo proširiti iste koncepte
13:45
and look at much larger groups of people.
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i obrađivati mnogo veće grupe ljudi.
13:48
This is a subset of data from our database --
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Ovo je podskup podataka iz naše baze --
13:51
just 50,000 out of several million --
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samo 50.000 od nekoliko milijuna --
13:54
and the social graph that connects them
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i društveni graf koji ih povezuje
13:56
through publicly available sources.
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kroz javno dostupne izvore.
13:59
And if you put them on one plain,
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Ako ih stavite u jednu ravninu,
14:01
a second plain is where the content lives.
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na drugoj ravnini nalazi se sadržaj.
14:04
So we have the programs
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Tako imamo programe
14:07
and the sporting events
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i sportske događaje
14:09
and the commercials,
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i reklame
14:11
and all of the link structures that tie them together
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a sve strukture povezivanja koje ih međusobno vežu
14:13
make a content graph.
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zajedno čine graf sadržaja.
14:15
And then the important third dimension.
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I sada, važna treća dimenzija.
14:19
Each of the links that you're seeing rendered here
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Svaka od poveznica koje ovdje vidite prikazane
14:21
is an actual connection made
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stvarna je veza koja je nastala
14:23
between something someone said
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između nečega što je netko rekao
14:26
and a piece of content.
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i dijela sadržaja.
14:28
And there are, again, now tens of millions of these links
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A sada ponovno vidimo desetke milijuna tih poveznica
14:31
that give us the connective tissue of social graphs
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koje sačinjavaju vezivno tkivo društvenih grafova
14:34
and how they relate to content.
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i načina na koji su povezani sa sadržajem.
14:37
And we can now start to probe the structure
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Sad možemo početi ispitivati strukturu
14:39
in interesting ways.
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na zanimljive načine.
14:41
So if we, for example, trace the path
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Ako, primjerice, pratimo put
14:44
of one piece of content
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jednog dijela sadržaja
14:46
that drives someone to comment on it,
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koji potiče nekoga da ga komentira,
14:48
and then we follow where that comment goes,
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i zatim slijedimo put kojim taj komentar ide,
14:51
and then look at the entire social graph that becomes activated
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i zatim pogledamo cijeli društveni graf koji se aktivira
14:54
and then trace back to see the relationship
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i zatim se vratimo kako bismo vidjeli odnos
14:57
between that social graph and content,
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između tog društvenog grafa i sadržaja,
14:59
a very interesting structure becomes visible.
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pojavljuje se vrlo zanimljiva struktura.
15:01
We call this a co-viewing clique,
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To zovemo ekipom za zajedničko promatranje,
15:03
a virtual living room if you will.
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virtualni dnevni boravak.
15:06
And there are fascinating dynamics at play.
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Odvija se fascinantna dinamika.
15:08
It's not one way.
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I to nije jednosmjerno.
15:10
A piece of content, an event, causes someone to talk.
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Dio sadržaja, neki događaj, potakne nekoga da govori.
15:13
They talk to other people.
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Ta osoba razgovara s drugim ljudima.
15:15
That drives tune-in behavior back into mass media,
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To potiče ponovno uključenje u masovne medije
15:18
and you have these cycles
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tako da postoje ciklusi
15:20
that drive the overall behavior.
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koji potiču cjelokupno ponašanje.
15:22
Another example -- very different --
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Drugi primjer -- vrlo različit --
15:24
another actual person in our database --
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druga stvarna osoba u našoj bazi --
15:27
and we're finding at least hundreds, if not thousands, of these.
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a pronalazimo barem stotine, ako ne i tisuće takvih.
15:30
We've given this person a name.
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Dali smo toj osobi ime.
15:32
This is a pro-amateur, or pro-am media critic
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On je pro-amater, pro-am, medijski kritičar
15:35
who has this high fan-out rate.
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koji dopire do velikog dijela javnosti.
15:38
So a lot of people are following this person -- very influential --
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Tako da mnogi ljudi slijede tu osobu -- vrlo utjecajnu --
15:41
and they have a propensity to talk about what's on TV.
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i imaju sklonost komentiranju sadržaja na TV-u.
15:43
So this person is a key link
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Ta je osoba ključna poveznica
15:46
in connecting mass media and social media together.
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između masovnih medija i društvenih medija.
15:49
One last example from this data:
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Posljednji primjer iz ovih podataka:
15:52
Sometimes it's actually a piece of content that is special.
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Ponekad je poseban upravo dio sadržaja.
15:55
So if we go and look at this piece of content,
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Pa ako promotrimo taj sadržaj,
15:59
President Obama's State of the Union address
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govor predsjednika Obame o stanju Unije
16:02
from just a few weeks ago,
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od prije samo nekoliko tjedana,
16:04
and look at what we find in this same data set,
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pogledajte što pronalazimo u tom istom skupu podataka,
16:07
at the same scale,
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na istoj razini,
16:10
the engagement properties of this piece of content
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poticajna svojstva tog dijela sadržaja
16:12
are truly remarkable.
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zaista su izuzetne.
16:14
A nation exploding in conversation
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Narod koji odjednom počinje komentirati
16:16
in real time
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u stvarnom vremenu
16:18
in response to what's on the broadcast.
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potaknut onime što se emitira.
16:21
And of course, through all of these lines
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I naravno, kroz sve te linije
16:23
are flowing unstructured language.
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teče nestrukturiran jezik.
16:25
We can X-ray
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Možemo napraviti rentgensku snimku
16:27
and get a real-time pulse of a nation,
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i dobiti stvarni puls naroda,
16:29
real-time sense
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stvarne podatke
16:31
of the social reactions in the different circuits in the social graph
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o društvenim reakcijama u različitim krugovima društvenog grafa
16:34
being activated by content.
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koje aktivira sadržaj.
16:37
So, to summarize, the idea is this:
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Dakle, da sažmem, ideja je sljedeća:
16:40
As our world becomes increasingly instrumented
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Kako nam je svijet sve više automatiziran
16:43
and we have the capabilities
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i imamo mogućnosti
16:45
to collect and connect the dots
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prikupljati i povezivati točkice
16:47
between what people are saying
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između onoga što ljudi govore
16:49
and the context they're saying it in,
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i konteksta u kojem to govore,
16:51
what's emerging is an ability
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pojavljuje se i mogućnost
16:53
to see new social structures and dynamics
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da vidimo nove društvene strukture i dinamiku
16:56
that have previously not been seen.
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koje prije nismo mogli vidjeti.
16:58
It's like building a microscope or telescope
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To je kao kad sklapate mikroskop ili teleskop
17:00
and revealing new structures
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i otkrivate nove strukture
17:02
about our own behavior around communication.
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našeg vlastitog ponašanja tijekom komunikacije.
17:05
And I think the implications here are profound,
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I mislim da ovo ima duboke implikacije,
17:08
whether it's for science,
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bilo za znanost,
17:10
for commerce, for government,
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trgovinu, vladu,
17:12
or perhaps most of all,
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ili možda, najviše od svega,
17:14
for us as individuals.
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za nas kao pojedince.
17:17
And so just to return to my son,
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I samo da se vratim na svog sina,
17:20
when I was preparing this talk, he was looking over my shoulder,
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dok sam pripremao ovo predavanje, gledao mi je preko ramena
17:23
and I showed him the clips I was going to show to you today,
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i pokazao sam mu videozapise koje sam mislio pokazati vama danas
17:25
and I asked him for permission -- granted.
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i tražio sam ga dopuštenje -- i dobio ga.
17:28
And then I went on to reflect,
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Nakon toga sam razmišljao,
17:30
"Isn't it amazing,
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"Nije li to fantastično,
17:33
this entire database, all these recordings,
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cijelu ovu bazu, sve snimke,
17:36
I'm going to hand off to you and to your sister" --
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predat ću tebi i tvojoj sestri",
17:38
who arrived two years later --
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koju smo dobili dvije godine kasnije.
17:41
"and you guys are going to be able to go back and re-experience moments
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"A vi ćete se moći vratiti i ponovno proživjeti trenutke
17:44
that you could never, with your biological memory,
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kojih se inače, sa svojim biološkim pamćenjem,
17:47
possibly remember the way you can now?"
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nikako ne biste mogli sjećati kao što to možete sada."
17:49
And he was quiet for a moment.
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On je zašutio na trenutak,
17:51
And I thought, "What am I thinking?
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pa sam pomislio, "Što je meni?
17:53
He's five years old. He's not going to understand this."
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Ima pet godina. Neće razumjeti ništa od ovoga."
17:55
And just as I was having that thought, he looked up at me and said,
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I upravo u trenutku kad sam to pomislio, pogledao me i rekao,
17:58
"So that when I grow up,
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"Znači, kad narastem,
18:00
I can show this to my kids?"
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mogu ovo pokazati svojoj djeci?"
18:02
And I thought, "Wow, this is powerful stuff."
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I pomislio sam "Opa, ovo je moćna stvar."
18:05
So I want to leave you
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Za kraj vam želim pokazati
18:07
with one last memorable moment
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posljednji trenutak za pamćenje
18:09
from our family.
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iz naše obitelji.
18:12
This is the first time our son
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Ovo je prvi put da je naš sin
18:14
took more than two steps at once --
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napravio više od dva koraka odjednom --
18:16
captured on film.
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zabilježeno na filmu.
18:18
And I really want you to focus on something
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Želim da obratite pažnju na nešto
18:21
as I take you through.
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dok vas vodim kroz snimku.
18:23
It's a cluttered environment; it's natural life.
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To je natrpana okolina, svakodnevni život.
18:25
My mother's in the kitchen, cooking,
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Moja majka je u kuhinji, kuha,
18:27
and, of all places, in the hallway,
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i baš u hodniku
18:29
I realize he's about to do it, about to take more than two steps.
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shvaćam da će to učiniti, napraviti više od dva koraka.
18:32
And so you hear me encouraging him,
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Čujete me kako ga ohrabrujem,
18:34
realizing what's happening,
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shvaćam što se događa,
18:36
and then the magic happens.
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i tad nastupa čarolija.
18:38
Listen very carefully.
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Slušajte pažljivo.
18:40
About three steps in,
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Nakon oko tri koraka,
18:42
he realizes something magic is happening,
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on shvaća da se događa nešto čarobno.
18:44
and the most amazing feedback loop of all kicks in,
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I uključuje se zadivljujuća petlja povratnih informacija,
18:47
and he takes a breath in,
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on udahne,
18:49
and he whispers "wow"
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i prošapće "opa"
18:51
and instinctively I echo back the same.
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a ja instiktivno odgovorim isto to.
18:56
And so let's fly back in time
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Vratimo se nazad u vremenu
18:59
to that memorable moment.
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do tog trenutka za pamćenje.
19:05
(Video) DR: Hey.
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(Video) DR: Hej.
19:07
Come here.
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Dođi ovamo.
19:09
Can you do it?
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Možeš li?
19:13
Oh, boy.
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Ajme meni.
19:15
Can you do it?
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Možeš li?
19:18
Baby: Yeah.
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Dijete: Da.
19:20
DR: Ma, he's walking.
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DR: Mama, on hoda.
19:24
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
19:26
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
19:28
DR: Thank you.
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DR: Hvala.
19:30
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)

Original video on YouTube.com
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