We Can Make COVID-19 the Last Pandemic | Bill Gates | TED

Translator: Luz Leirós Reviewer: Servizo de Normalización Lingüística

In the year 6 CE,

No ano 6 antes de Cristo,

a fire devastated Rome.

un incendio devastou Roma.

In response,

Como resposta,

Emperor Augustus did something that had never been done before

o emperador Augusto fixo algo que ninguén fixera antes

in the history of the Empire.

na historia do Imperio.

He created a permanent team of firefighters

Creou un equipo permanente de bombeiros

who used buckets just like this one.

que utilizaban baldes coma este.

Augustus understood that individuals alone can't protect themselves from fires.

Augusto entendeu que, soas, as persoas non poden protexerse dos incendios.

They need help from the community.

Necesitan axuda da comunidade.

When one person's house is on fire,

Cando se incendia a casa dunha persoa,

that creates a risk for everyone else's homes.

estanse arriscando as casas de todas as demais.

And so what we've had these last few years is like a horrific global fire.

E así, o que tivemos estes últimos anos é como un terrible incendio global.

The COVID pandemic has killed millions and upended economies,

A pandemia da COVID matou millóns e devastou as economías,

and we want to stop that from happening again.

e queremos evitar que isto volva ocorrer.

COVID, it's hard to overstate how awful it's been.

É difícil esaxerar o horrible que foi a COVID.

It's increased the health inequities between the rich and the poor.

Aumentou as desigualdades sanitarias entre ricos e pobres.

Survival depended partly on your income, your race,

A supervivencia dependía, en parte, dos teus ingresos, da túa raza,

the neighborhood you lived in.

do barrio no que vivías.

And so we should seize this opportunity

E por iso debemos aproveitar esta oportunidade

to create a world where everyone has a chance

para crear un mundo onde todos teñamos a posibilidade

to live a healthy and productive life.

de vivir unha vida sa e produtiva.

Also a life free from the fear of the next COVID-19.

Tamén unha vida libre do medo á próxima COVID-19.

When I was on this stage in 2015,

Cando estiven neste escenario no 2015,

I was one of many people who said

fun unha das moitas persoas que dicía

we weren't ready and we needed to get ready.

que non estabamos preparados e que debiamos prepararnos.

We didn't.

Non o fixemos.

The speech actually was watched by a lot of people.

En realidade, esa charla viuna moita xente.

But 90 percent of the views were after it was too late.

Pero o 90 % das visualizacións foron despois de que fose demasiado tarde.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

So now I hope the need is clear.

Así que agora espero que quede clara a necesidade.

And of course, we've learned a lot.

Por suposto, aprendemos moito.

During this pandemic,

Durante esta pandemia,

a lot of things worked well, a lot of things didn't work well.

moitas cousas funcionaron ben e moitas cousas non funcionaron ben,

And so we have all that knowledge to build a prevention system.

de modo que temos todo ese coñecemento para construír un sistema de prevención.

COVID-19 can be the last pandemic if we take the right steps.

A COVID-19 pode ser a última pandemia se seguimos os pasos correctos.

So how, what are these steps?

Cales son eses pasos, logo?

Well, let's go back and look at what the Romans did.

Ben, volvamos atrás e vexamos que fixeron os romanos.

Pensemos en como, co paso do tempo, fomos quen de previr grandes incendios.

Think about how, over time, we've gotten good at preventing big fires.

Fire prevention is kind of this pervasive thing.

A prevención de incendios é unha cousa xeneralizada.

It's well funded.

Está ben financiada.

It's well understood.

Enténdese ben.

If an alarm went off right now,

Se unha alarma soase agora mesmo,

everyone here would know we're supposed to calmly gather,

todos aquí saberiades que se supón que debemos manter a calma,

go out and wait instructions.

saír xuntos e esperar instrucións.

We'd know that help would be on the way

Saberiamos que a axuda está de camiño

because we have lots of trained firefighters who practice.

porque temos moitos bombeiros competentes e adestrados.

The United States alone has 370,000 full-time firefighters,

Só nos EE. UU., temos 370 000 bombeiros a tempo completo,

even more than I guessed that number would be.

aínda máis dos que eu pensaba que había.

We also have access to water.

Tamén temos acceso á auga.

The United States, for example, has almost nine million fire hydrants.

Os EE. UU., por exemplo, teñen case nove millóns de bocas de incendio.

And so that type of investment, that type of practice,

E ese tipo de investimento, ese tipo de práctica,

that type of system is what we need to stop pandemics.

ese tipo de sistema é o que necesitamos para deter as pandemias.

Now, often in movies, we'll have pandemics.

Moitas veces nas películas saen pandemias.

And I'm always impressed with what takes place.

E sempre me impresiona o que pasa.

Let's look at an example of this rapid response.

Vexamos un exemplo desta resposta rápida.

[Motaba River Valley, Zaire]

[Val do río Motaba, Zaire]

(Helicopter rotors whirring)

(Rotores de helicóptero zumbando)

Well, that's quite impressive.

Ben. Iso é impresionante.

We don't need the music,

Non precisamos a música

but otherwise we saw exactly what should happen.

para ver exactamente o que debería pasar.

An outbreak’s detected.

Detectouse un gromo.

Very quickly, literally within days,

Moi rápido, literalmente en poucos días,

doctors are dispatched.

envíanse médicos.

They have a helicopter to get into exactly ground zero.

Teñen un helicóptero que os leva exactamente á zona cero.

They go in there, and they’ve got the right tools.

Chegan alí e teñen as ferramentas adecuadas.

And this is what should happen when an outbreak is spotted.

E isto é o que debería pasar cando se detecta un gromo.

But we don't have that team, we don't have those resources.

Pero nós non temos ese equipo, non temos eses recursos.

And if an outbreak took place in a low-income country,

E se o gromo se produce nun país de baixos ingresos,

it could be literally months

poderían pasar meses

before we started to orchestrate those resources.

antes de que comezaramos a organizar eses recursos.

So despite what you see in movies,

A pesar do que vemos nas películas,

there is no group of experts standing by to prevent this disaster.

non hai ningún grupo de expertos preparados para evitar ese desastre.

So we have to create a new team.

Por iso, temos que crear un novo equipo.

I believe we should create what I call the GERM team.

Creo que deberíamos crear o que eu chamo o equipo GERM.

Germ stands for Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization.

GERM significa Resposta e Mobilización Epidémica Global.

This group is full-time.

Este grupo ten dedicación exclusiva.

Their only priority is pandemic prevention.

A súa única prioridade é a prevención de pandemias.

It's made up of a diverse set of specialists

Está formado por un conxunto diverso de expertos

with a lot of different realms of expertise:

en moitos ámbitos diferentes de especialización:

epidemiologists, data scientists,

epidemiólogos, científicos de datos,

logistics experts.

expertos en loxística.

And it's not just scientific and medical knowledge.

E non se trata só de coñecemento científico e médico.

They also have to have communication and diplomacy skills.

Tamén teñen que ter habilidades de comunicación e diplomacia.

The cost of this team is significant.

O custo deste equipo é elevado,

It's over a billion a year

máis de 1000 millóns ao ano

to support the 3,000 people who would be on this team.

para apoiar as 3000 persoas que formarían este equipo.

And its mission is to stop outbreaks before they become pandemics.

A súa misión é deter os gromos antes de que se convertan en pandemias.

The work would be coordinated by the WHO.

O traballo estaría coordinado pola OMS.

They'd be present in many locations around the world,

Estarían presentes en moitos lugares de todo o mundo,

stationed in public health agencies.

instalados en centros de saúde pública.

They'd work closely with the national teams,

Colaborarían estreitamente cos equipos nacionais,

depending on the income level.

dependendo do seu nivel de ingresos.

They'd have more in the lower-income countries.

Terían máis nos países de baixos ingresos.

You know, for example, we could have GERM members

Por exemplo, poderiamos ter membros de GERM,

say an epidemiologist, working out of the Africa CDC office in Abuja.

como un epidemiólogo, traballando desde a oficina de Africa CDC en Abuja.

And a very important thing is that like firefighters,

E algo moi importante é que, coma os bombeiros,

a GERM team would do drills.

os equipos GERM farían adestramentos.

When you want to have quick response,

Cando queres unha resposta rápida,

when you want to make sure you have all the pieces there

cando queres asegurarte de ter todas as pezas no seu sitio

and you can move very quickly, practice is key.

para poder movelas rapidamente, a clave é a práctica.

That's how you make sure everyone knows what to do.

Así asegúraste de que todos saben o que teñen que facer.

Now, this team, there could be periods where there's no risky outbreak

Agora, este equipo podería ter períodos nos que non hai risco de gromos

and they can keep their skills strong

e poderían manterse ao día

by working on some of the other infectious diseases,

traballando nalgunhas das outras enfermidades infecciosas,

but that would be a second priority.

pero iso sería unha prioridade secundaria.

They would work with countries to strengthen their health systems.

Traballarían cos países para reforzar os seus sistemas de saúde.

The health systems are the front line.

Os sistemas de saúde están na primeira liña.

You need to know if, say,

Hai que saber se, digamos,

a lot of people show up with a new kind of cough,

moita xente sofre un novo tipo de arrefriado,

that’s when GERM needs to look into it and say, is this an outbreak?

que é cando GERM ten que investigalo e dicir: “Isto é un gromo?

Is there a new pathogen here?

Temos aquí un novo patóxeno?

What is the sequence of that?

Cal é a súa secuencia?”

And so for all of this, the first 100 days are key.

Para todo iso, os primeiros 100 días son clave.

Viruses spread exponentially.

Os virus propáganse exponencialmente.

And so if you get in there when the infection rate is fairly small,

Se podes intervir cando a taxa de infección é aínda baixa,

you can actually stop the spread.

poderás deter a propagación.

You know, in this epidemic,

Nesta epidemia,

if we'd been able to stop it within 100 days,

se fósemos quen de detela nos primeiros 100 días,

we would have saved over 98 percent of the lives.

salvariamos máis do 98 % das vidas.

Now, we did have countries that did a good job.

Agora ben, houbo países que fixeron un bo traballo.

Australia is an example.

Australia é un exemplo.

They orchestrated diagnostic capacity.

Eles organizaron a capacidade diagnóstica.

They came up with distancing policies and quarantine policies.

Acertaron coas políticas de distanciamento e as políticas de corentena.

And so their overall death rate per capita will be well less

Así, a súa taxa de mortalidade per cápita será

than a 10th of other countries.

un 10 % menor que a doutros países.

But we did not, as a world, contain it.

Porén, como mundo, non a contivemos.

And that's what we have to do next time.

E iso é o que temos que facer a próxima vez.

When COVID struck, we were almost like Rome

Cando a COVID nos golpeou, eramos case coma Roma

before they had fire buckets and firefighters.

antes de que tiveran baldes para o lume e bombeiros.

We didn't have the people, the systems or the tools we need.

Non tiñamos a xente, os sistemas ou as ferramentas que necesitabamos.

Now, with the right investments,

Mais cos investimentos adecuados,

we can have a whole new generation of tools,

podemos ter toda unha nova xeración de ferramentas,

better diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines.

mellores diagnósticos, tratamentos e vacinas.

A good example in the diagnostic area is this little machine,

Un bo exemplo na area de diagnóstico é esta pequena máquina,

this is called the Lumira.

que se chama Lumira.

We can have these all over the world that can test for any number of diseases.

Podemos ter destas en todo o mundo

e poden detectar calquera número de enfermidades.

It’s a 10th as expensive as PCR,

Custa a décima parte dunha PCR,

it’s absolutely as accurate, and it’s simple.

é, por suposto, igual de segura, e é sinxela.

So it can be used anywhere.

Pode usarse en calquera lugar.

We need other R&D investments.

Necesitamos outros investimentos en I+D.

One that I'm very excited about is the idea of a drug

Un dos que máis me emociona é a idea dun fármaco

that you inhale that blocks you from getting infected.

que se inhala e bloquea a infección.

It can be pathogen-independent and trigger your immune system

Pode ser patóxeno-independente e activar o teu sistema inmunitario

so that you'll be protected.

para que esteas protexido.

A lot of the tools, the diagnostic tools

Moitas das ferramentas, as ferramentas de diagnóstico

and those infection-blocking tools are important

e esas ferramentas de bloqueo de infeccións son importantes

because they can be staged in advance.

porque poden prepararse con antelación.

Now, we also need vaccines,

Tamén necesitamos vacinas,

but we want to stop the outbreak

pero queremos frear o gromo

before we have to do a global vaccination campaign.

antes de ter que facer unha campaña de vacinación global.

And so vaccines can play a couple of different roles,

As vacinas poden desempeñar un par de funcións diferentes,

but not the primary role.

pero non o papel principal.

We have to invest in more than just that.

Temos que investir en algo máis que iso.

When we look at vaccines, they were the miracle of this epidemic.

Cando miramos as vacinas, elas foron o milagre desta epidemia.

They saved millions of lives, but they can be far better.

Salvaron millóns de vidas, pero poden ser moito mellores.

We need to invent easier-to-deliver vaccines

Necesitamos inventar vacinas de fácil aplicación

that are just a patch you put on your arm

que sexan só un parche que pos no brazo

or something that you inhale.

ou algo que inhalas.

We need vaccines that actually block infections.

Necesitamos vacinas que realmente bloqueen as infeccións.

In this case, there were lots of breakthrough infections.

Neste caso, había moitas infeccións irruptivas.

We need vaccines that are broad spectrum,

Necesitamos vacinas de amplo espectro,

so they work against most of the emerging variants,

que funcionen contra a maioría das variantes emerxentes,

which we did not have this time.

algo que non tivemos desta vez.

And we also need factories that are standing by

Tamén necesitamos fábricas que estean preparadas

para producir vacinas suficientes para todo o mundo

so we can build enough vaccines for the entire world

within six months

en seis meses

and achieve far better equity.

e lograr moita máis equidade.

The vaccines can also do something that would be super helpful,

As vacinas tamén poder facen algo que sería superútil,

which is to help us eradicate entire families of viruses.

que é axudarnos a erradicar familias enteiras de virus.

Innovative new vaccines used properly could get rid of the flu family,

As novas vacinas innovadoras, utilizadas adecuadamente, poderían desfacerse

da familia da gripe, da familia do coronavirus.

the coronavirus family.

And there's a huge burden of those,

E hai unha enorme carga delas,

even in non-pandemic years,

incluso en anos non pandémicos.

and if we get rid of it, it can never cause a pandemic.

Se nos desfacemos deles, nunca poderán causar unha pandemia.

So I'm talking about investments in three broad areas:

Entón, estou falando de investimentos en tres grandes áreas:

Disease monitoring,

control de enfermidades

that's GERM.

—iso é GERM—,

The R and D tools that are far better.

ferramentas de I+D moito mellores

And finally, and the most expensive, is improved health systems.

e, finalmente, e o máis caro, sistemas de saúde mellorados.

This won't be cheap, but it'll save lives.

Non será barato, pero salvará vidas.

And even it'll save money in the long run.

Incluso aforrará cartos a longo prazo.

It's like an insurance policy.

É coma unha póliza de seguros.

The cost to prevent the next pandemic will be tens of billions of dollars.

O custo de previr a próxima pandemia será de decenas de miles de millóns de dólares.

But let's compare that to what we just went through.

Pero comparemos iso co que acabamos de pasar.

The IMF estimates that COVID has cost nearly 14 trillion dollars.

O FMI calcula que a COVID custou preto de 14 billóns de dólares.

And so we need to spend billions in order to save trillions.

Por tanto, necesitamos gastar miles de millóns para aforrar billóns.

And here's the best part of this.

E aquí está o mellor de todo isto.

Even when we're not having an outbreak, these investments like the Lumira,

Mesmo cando non estamos a ter un gromo, eses investimentos coma Lumira,

those new vaccines,

esas novas vacinas

they will make people healthier.

farán que a xente sexa máis saudable.

They'll shrink the gap, the health equity gap,

Reducirán a fenda, a fenda da igualdade sanitaria,

which is gigantic, between rich and poor countries.

que é xigantesca entre países ricos e pobres.

For example, we can detect more HIV cases and do a better job of treatment.

Por exemplo, podemos detectar máis casos de VIH e mellorar os tratamentos.

We can reduce deaths from malaria.

Podemos reducir a mortalidade por malaria.

We can get more people high-quality care.

Podemos conseguir unha atención de calidade para máis persoas.

And so this is not just a downer

E isto non é só un discurso deprimente

about how to stop things from getting worse,

sobre como evitar que as cousas empeoren,

but also a chance to make things better.

senón tamén unha oportunidade para melloralas.

If we take the right steps,

Se damos os pasos correctos,

we can make COVID-19 the last pandemic,

podemos facer da COVID-19 a última pandemia

and we can build a healthier, more equitable world for everyone.

e construír un mundo máis saudable e equitativo para todos.

Thank you.

Grazas.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)

Helen Walters: Thank you so much.

Helen Walters: Grazas, moitísimas grazas.

I have a few follow-up questions

Teño algunhas preguntas

and one is really about the formal status of GERM.

e unha delas é sobre o estado oficial do GERM.

So you mentioned this would cost a billion dollars,

Dicías que isto custaría

mil millóns de dólares, que vén a través da OMS, pero exactamente

you mentioned it comes through the WHO,

but exactly who's running this, how does this work,

quen o está a levar a cabo, como funciona, como facemos que ocorra?

how do we make this happen?

BG: Well, GERM does not exist.

BG: Ben, o GERM non existe.

It's a proposal I'm putting forward that hopefully over the next year,

É unha proposta que estou a presentar que espero que o ano que vén,

while the pain of the pandemic is still clear in people's minds,

mentres a dor da pandemia aínda está clara na mente da xente,

will get a global consensus.

consiga un consenso global.

The rich-world governments will have to step up

Os gobernos do primeiro mundo deberán esforzarse,

like they do with all the aid things and come up with that money.

como fan con todas as axudas, e conseguir ese diñeiro.

The way the personnel systems works, so that it's under WHO,

A forma en que funcionan os sistemas de persoal, que estarán baixo a OMS,

but a really top-notch team,

un equipo realmente excelente…

there will be a lot of debate about how to do that well.

Haberá moito debate sobre como facelo ben.

So, you know, I'm putting it forward

Estouno a propoñer

and hopefully within the next year we'll get that consensus.

e espero que o ano que vén logremos un consenso.

HW: Who do you need to pick that up next?

HW: Quen precisas que se ocupe disto?

BG: Well, it's really the rich-world governments.

BG: Ben, son realmente os gobernos dos países ricos.

The WHO has this big yearly meeting, the World Health Assembly,

A OMS ten unha gran reunión anual, a Asemblea Mundial da Saúde,

and at some point somebody will put forward a resolution

e nalgún momento alguén presentará unha resolución

and we'll see if the extra resources can be put in for that.

e veremos se se poden poñer os recursos adicionais para iso.

After World War II, we did a lot.

Despois da Segunda Guerra Mundial, fixemos moitas cousas.

You know, we created the United Nations, we talked a lot about war.

Creamos as Nacións Unidas, falamos moito da guerra,

So I'd be stunned, although, you know,

así que quedaría atónito se non se fixese.

so far the action has been less than I would have expected,

Aínda que ata o de agora houbo menos accións das que esperaba,

I'd be stunned if we don't go forward with something pretty close

quedaría atónito se non avanzamos con algo moi próximo

to what I'm laying out there.

ao que estou a preparar alí.

HW: Isto foi case persoal para ti.

HW: This has been pretty personal for you.

You know, the anti-vaxxers are out there, they are loud,

Os antivacinas están aí fóra, fan moito ruído,

and this has become personal.

e isto converteuse en algo persoal.

I just wanted to ask, like, how are you managing that?

Eu só quería preguntar: como se xestiona iso?

BG: Well, it's kind of weird.

BG: En fin, é un pouco raro.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

(Applause)

(Aplausos)

Now, our foundation, the Gates Foundation, is very involved in vaccines,

A nosa fundación, a Fundación Gates, está moi implicada nas vacinas,

the invention of new vaccines, funding vaccines.

a invención de novas vacinas, a financiación destas.

And we're very proud that through joint efforts like GAVI,

Estamos moi orgullosos de que, a través de esforzos conxuntos,

como GAVI, se salvasen decenas de millóns de vidas.

that saved tens of millions of lives.

So it's somewhat ironic to have somebody turn around and say, no, you know,

É un pouco paradoxal que alguén lle dea a volta e diga

we're using vaccines to kill people or to make money or, you know,

que estamos a usar vacinas para matar xente ou para facer cartos,

we started the pandemic,

que nós comezamos a pandemia,

even some strange things like, that I somehow want to track, you know,

mesmo algunhas cousas raras, como que, dalgún xeito, quero rastrexar

the location of individuals

a localización das persoas

because I'm so deeply desirous to know where everybody is.

porque estou profundamente interesado en saber onde está todo o mundo.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with that information.

Non estou seguro do que imos facer con esa información.

(Laughter)

(Risas)

You know, does this turn into something where, you know,

Isto está a converterse en algo

there's constantly crazy people showing up?

onde aparece constantemente xente tola.

Who knows?

Quen sabe?

But, you know, hopefully, as the pandemic calms down,

Pero espero que, a medida que a pandemia acougue,

people are more rational about, hey,

a xente sexa máis racional.

vaccines are a miracle and there's a lot more we can do.

As vacinas son un milagre e hai moito máis que podemos facer.

HW: So the future is in our hands in the present.

HW: Así que o futuro está nas nosas mans agora.

Bill Gates, thank you so much for being here.

Bill Gates, moitísimas grazas por vires.

BG: Grazas.

BG: Thank you.

(Applause)

(Aplausos)