We Can Make COVID-19 the Last Pandemic | Bill Gates | TED

Translator: Shelley Tsang 曾雯海 Reviewer: Thomas Tam

In the year 6 CE,

公元六年，

a fire devastated Rome.

一場火災肆虐羅馬。

In response,

作為回應，

Emperor Augustus did something that had never been done before

皇帝 Augustus 做咗件

in the history of the Empire.

帝國歷史上從未做過嘅事，

He created a permanent team of firefighters

佢創立咗個永久性消防隊，

who used buckets just like this one.

用呢種水桶滅火。

Augustus understood that individuals alone can't protect themselves from fires.

Augustus 了解喺火災 單獨個人無法保護自己，

They need help from the community.

而係需要社群幫助。

When one person's house is on fire,

當一個人屋企火燭，

that creates a risk for everyone else's homes.

就會對所有人屋企構成風險。

And so what we've had these last few years is like a horrific global fire.

我哋近幾年遇到嘅 就好似場可怕全球性火災。

The COVID pandemic has killed millions and upended economies,

新型冠狀病毒疫情 殺死咗幾百萬人，同顛覆咗經濟，

and we want to stop that from happening again.

我哋想阻止呢種事 再次發生。

COVID, it's hard to overstate how awful it's been.

新冠病毒，話佢有幾差都唔過分。

It's increased the health inequities between the rich and the poor.

佢加深咗貧富之間 唔平等嘅健康水平。

Survival depended partly on your income, your race,

人可否生存落去 部分取決喺佢嘅收入、種族、

the neighborhood you lived in.

同埋住喺邊個社區。

And so we should seize this opportunity

我哋應該把握呢個機遇

to create a world where everyone has a chance

創造出人人都有機會

to live a healthy and productive life.

過健康同豐厚嘅生活。

Also a life free from the fear of the next COVID-19.

唔使驚有下一場新冠病毒。

When I was on this stage in 2015,

2015 年我企响呢個講台，

I was one of many people who said

同好多其他人一樣，我話

we weren't ready and we needed to get ready.

我哋仲未準備好， 而且一定要準備好。

We didn't.

但係我哋無。

The speech actually was watched by a lot of people.

其實嗰場演講好多人睇過，

But 90 percent of the views were after it was too late.

當佢有九成點擊率嘅時候 只不過，已經遲曬啦。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

So now I hope the need is clear.

所以宜家我希望呢個需求清楚易見。

當然啦，我哋已經學咗好多嘢。

And of course, we've learned a lot.

During this pandemic,

呢次疫情期間，

a lot of things worked well, a lot of things didn't work well.

好多嘢做得好好， 亦好多嘢做得唔好。

And so we have all that knowledge to build a prevention system.

起碼我哋全部人 都有建構預防系統嘅知識。

COVID-19 can be the last pandemic if we take the right steps.

如果我哋踏出正確嘅步伐， 新冠病毒可以係最後嘅疫情大流行。

So how, what are these steps?

所以，呢啲步伐係咩呢？

Well, let's go back and look at what the Romans did.

嗱，我哋睇返啲羅馬人做咗咩先。

Think about how, over time, we've gotten good at preventing big fires.

試諗下，我哋係點樣漸漸噉 擅長預防大火嘅。

Fire prevention is kind of this pervasive thing.

火災預防係好普遍。

It's well funded.

獲得好多資助，

It's well understood.

大家都會非常理解。

If an alarm went off right now,

如果宜家警報響起，

everyone here would know we're supposed to calmly gather,

所有人都知道 我哋應該冷靜噉集結，

go out and wait instructions.

走到出口等待指示。

We'd know that help would be on the way

我哋知道救援已經嚟緊，

because we have lots of trained firefighters who practice.

有好多訓練有素嘅消防員喺度做嘢。

The United States alone has 370,000 full-time firefighters,

單單係美國就有 37 萬全職消防員，

even more than I guessed that number would be.

比我估嘅人數仲多。

We also have access to water.

我哋亦都有途徑攞到水。

The United States, for example, has almost nine million fire hydrants.

例如美國有差唔多 九百萬個消防栓。

And so that type of investment, that type of practice,

呢種投資、措施同系統

that type of system is what we need to stop pandemics.

就係阻止疫情所需要嘅。

Now, often in movies, we'll have pandemics.

我哋成日會响電影入面睇到疫情，

And I'm always impressed with what takes place.

我總係對呢啲故事印象深刻。

Let's look at an example of this rapid response.

等我哋睇下呢個快速反應嘅例子。

[Motaba River Valley, Zaire]

［莫塔巴河谷，薩伊］

(Helicopter rotors whirring)

（直升機旋翼呼呼作響）

Well, that's quite impressive.

嗱，真係幾犀利。

We don't need the music,

唔使要音樂啦，

but otherwise we saw exactly what should happen.

否則我哋真係睇到件事應該係點樣嘅。

An outbreak’s detected.

偵測到疫情爆發。

Very quickly, literally within days,

非常快，幾天之內，

doctors are dispatched.

就派咗醫生過去。

They have a helicopter to get into exactly ground zero.

佢哋搭乘直升機到達精確嘅爆發點。

They go in there, and they’ve got the right tools.

佢哋入去，帶埋正確嘅工具。

And this is what should happen when an outbreak is spotted.

噉就係發現疫情爆發時 應該發生嘅事。

But we don't have that team, we don't have those resources.

但係我哋無嗰種團隊 同嗰啲資源。

And if an outbreak took place in a low-income country,

如果場疫情爆發喺低收入國家，

it could be literally months

可能需要幾個月，

before we started to orchestrate those resources.

我哋先會準備好啲資源。

So despite what you see in movies,

就算你喺電影睇到，

there is no group of experts standing by to prevent this disaster.

我哋根本就無準備好嘅專家團隊 來預防呢場災難。

So we have to create a new team.

所以需要創立新嘅團隊。

I believe we should create what I call the GERM team.

我相信我哋應該創立 GERM 團隊，

Germ stands for Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization.

GERM 代表「全球疫情反應與動員」。

This group is full-time.

呢個團隊係全職嘅。

Their only priority is pandemic prevention.

佢哋唯一要做嘅嘢 就係預防疫情。

It's made up of a diverse set of specialists

呢個團隊由各式各樣嘅專家組成，

with a lot of different realms of expertise:

响好多領域各有專精：

epidemiologists, data scientists,

流行病學家、信息科學家、

logistics experts.

物流管理專家。

And it's not just scientific and medical knowledge.

佢哋唔只有科學同醫學知識，

They also have to have communication and diplomacy skills.

仲有溝通同埋外交協商嘅技能。

The cost of this team is significant.

呢個團隊嘅開銷巨大，

It's over a billion a year

超過 10 億美金一年，

to support the 3,000 people who would be on this team.

用嚟維持 3,000 名團隊成員。

And its mission is to stop outbreaks before they become pandemics.

呢個團隊嘅任務係 阻止疫情爆發演變成大流行。

The work would be coordinated by the WHO.

呢項工作需要世界衛生組織嘅協同。

They'd be present in many locations around the world,

佢哋會喺世界上好多地點出現，

stationed in public health agencies.

進駐公共衛生機構。

They'd work closely with the national teams,

佢哋會同各國團隊緊密合作，

depending on the income level.

視乎地區嘅收入水平，

They'd have more in the lower-income countries.

會喺低收入國家駐紮多啲人。

You know, for example, we could have GERM members

舉例嚟講，我哋可以安排 GERM 成員，

say an epidemiologist, working out of the Africa CDC office in Abuja.

例如一位流行病學家，喺非洲阿布加 疾病控制及預防中心工作。

And a very important thing is that like firefighters,

仲有一件非常重要嘅事， 就好似消防隊員噉，

a GERM team would do drills.

GERM 團隊會進行演習。

When you want to have quick response,

如果要快速回應，

when you want to make sure you have all the pieces there

確保所需嘅一切物品齊備，

and you can move very quickly, practice is key.

仲要快速行動，噉演習就係關鍵，

That's how you make sure everyone knows what to do.

確保所有人知道應該做啲咩。

Now, this team, there could be periods where there's no risky outbreak

响無傳染病爆發風險嘅時期，

and they can keep their skills strong

呢個團隊仍可藉處理其他傳染病

by working on some of the other infectious diseases,

嚟保持佢哋強大嘅技能，

but that would be a second priority.

但呢樣只會係第二優先。

They would work with countries to strengthen their health systems.

佢哋會同各國合作， 強化該國嘅醫療系統。

The health systems are the front line.

醫療系統係前線。

You need to know if, say,

大家要明白，舉例嚟講，

a lot of people show up with a new kind of cough,

如果好多人出現一種新型咳嗽，

that’s when GERM needs to look into it and say, is this an outbreak?

噉就係 GERM 團隊要調查， 判斷係唔係傳染病會爆發，

Is there a new pathogen here?

有無新嘅病原體？

What is the sequence of that?

發展過程係咩？

And so for all of this, the first 100 days are key.

就呢啲工作嚟講， 首一百日會係關鍵。

Viruses spread exponentially.

病毒以指數性成長傳播。

And so if you get in there when the infection rate is fairly small,

如果團隊喺感染率仲好低嘅時候抵達，

you can actually stop the spread.

其實就可以阻斷傳播。

You know, in this epidemic,

喺宜家呢場疫情，

if we'd been able to stop it within 100 days,

如果我哋喺首一百日內能夠阻止，

we would have saved over 98 percent of the lives.

我哋就可以拯救超過 98% 嘅生命。

Now, we did have countries that did a good job.

我哋睇到一啲國家做得好好。

Australia is an example.

澳洲就係一個範例。

They orchestrated diagnostic capacity.

佢哋細緻規劃檢驗能力，

They came up with distancing policies and quarantine policies.

構思出社交距離同隔離政策。

And so their overall death rate per capita will be well less

所以佢哋嘅整體人均死亡率

than a 10th of other countries.

唔到其他國家嘅十分之一。

But we did not, as a world, contain it.

但係我哋全世界 都無控制住疫情，

And that's what we have to do next time.

下次我哋必須要做得到。

When COVID struck, we were almost like Rome

响新冠病毒侵襲嗰時，

before they had fire buckets and firefighters.

我哋好似無滅火桶 同消防員嘅羅馬噉。

We didn't have the people, the systems or the tools we need.

我哋無所需嘅人力、系統同器具。

Now, with the right investments,

若果有正確投資，

we can have a whole new generation of tools,

我哋就可以有新一代嘅工具，

better diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines.

更好嘅篩檢、治療同疫苗。

A good example in the diagnostic area is this little machine,

係檢測方面呢台小機器 係一個很好嘅範例

this is called the Lumira.

佢叫露米婭。

We can have these all over the world that can test for any number of diseases.

我哋喺全世界設置呢種機器 用嚟檢測任意數量嘅疾病，

It’s a 10th as expensive as PCR,

要價係聚合酶連鎖反應嘅 10%，

it’s absolutely as accurate, and it’s simple.

絕對一樣準確，仲簡單易用，

So it can be used anywhere.

可以喺任何地方使用。

We need other R&D investments.

我哋需要投資其他研發。

One that I'm very excited about is the idea of a drug

其中一個令我非常興奮嘅想法

that you inhale that blocks you from getting infected.

係一種吸入就能為你阻斷感染嘅藥物。

It can be pathogen-independent and trigger your immune system

係唔受限任何病原體， 同刺激你嘅免疫系統，

so that you'll be protected.

然後你就可得到保護。

A lot of the tools, the diagnostic tools

好多工具都好重要，

and those infection-blocking tools are important

例如檢測同感染阻斷嘅器材，

because they can be staged in advance.

因為佢哋可以超前部署。

Now, we also need vaccines,

宜家，我哋需要疫苗，

but we want to stop the outbreak

但我哋希望喺需要全球性 作出行動前，

before we have to do a global vaccination campaign.

阻斷疫情嘅爆發。

And so vaccines can play a couple of different roles,

所以疫苗可以扮演 好多唔同角色，

but not the primary role.

唔限於主要功能。

We have to invest in more than just that.

唔只噉，我哋必須投資更多。

When we look at vaccines, they were the miracle of this epidemic.

疫苗，可以話係呢次大流行嘅奇跡。

They saved millions of lives, but they can be far better.

疫苗雖然拯救咗幾百萬條人命， 但其實可以做得更好。

We need to invent easier-to-deliver vaccines

我哋需要發明更容易提供嘅疫苗，

that are just a patch you put on your arm

只係一塊貼喺手臂上嘅膠布

or something that you inhale.

或者可以吸入嘅嘢。

We need vaccines that actually block infections.

我哋需要確實阻斷感染嘅疫苗。

In this case, there were lots of breakthrough infections.

喺呢啲情況下， 有好多突破性嘅感染。

We need vaccines that are broad spectrum,

我哋需要廣效性嘅疫苗

so they work against most of the emerging variants,

來對抗絕大多數新生嘅變種病毒，

which we did not have this time.

呢樣嘢係今次無嘅。

And we also need factories that are standing by

我哋仲需要隨時候命嘅工廠，

喺六個月內生產足夠嘅疫苗

so we can build enough vaccines for the entire world

within six months

供全球使用，

and achieve far better equity.

達至更平等。

The vaccines can also do something that would be super helpful,

呢啲疫苗可以做到 非常有用嘅事，

which is to help us eradicate entire families of viruses.

就係幫助我哋消滅整個病毒家族。

Innovative new vaccines used properly could get rid of the flu family,

如果正確使用創新嘅疫苗，

就可以消除流感病毒、冠狀病毒家族。

the coronavirus family.

And there's a huge burden of those,

病毒帶嚟好大負擔，

even in non-pandemic years,

即使响無大流行年份，

and if we get rid of it, it can never cause a pandemic.

如果將佢哋消滅， 就永遠唔會引發大流行。

So I'm talking about investments in three broad areas:

所以，宜家我講嘅係 投資喺三大領域：

Disease monitoring,

疾病偵測，

that's GERM.

即係 GERM 團隊；

The R and D tools that are far better.

更好嘅研發工具；

And finally, and the most expensive, is improved health systems.

最後，亦都係最昂貴嘅， 就係改善醫療系統。

This won't be cheap, but it'll save lives.

費用唔平，但係會拯救好多生命，

And even it'll save money in the long run.

長期落嚟甚至可以慳錢。

It's like an insurance policy.

佢就好似買份保險。

The cost to prevent the next pandemic will be tens of billions of dollars.

用幾百億美金， 作預防下一場大流行嘅開銷 。

But let's compare that to what we just went through.

但係，不如我哋同呢次疫情做個比較。

The IMF estimates that COVID has cost nearly 14 trillion dollars.

國際貨幣基金組織估計新冠病毒， 用咗我哋 14 萬億美金。

And so we need to spend billions in order to save trillions.

我哋付出幾百億，可以慳返幾萬億。

And here's the best part of this.

呢件事最正嘅部分係，

Even when we're not having an outbreak, these investments like the Lumira,

即使係無大流行嘅時期， 呢些投資，例如 Lumira

those new vaccines,

呢啲新疫苗，

they will make people healthier.

仍然可以令人類更健康。

They'll shrink the gap, the health equity gap,

佢哋可以縮細唔平等嘅健康差距，

which is gigantic, between rich and poor countries.

現存富國同窮國之間嘅差距超級巨大。

For example, we can detect more HIV cases and do a better job of treatment.

例如，我哋可以偵測到 更多愛滋個案，更好咁治療；

We can reduce deaths from malaria.

仲可以降低瘧疾嘅死亡人數；

We can get more people high-quality care.

可以令到更多人獲得高品質嘅照護。

And so this is not just a downer

所以呢樣唔單只係

about how to stop things from getting worse,

消極噉防止件事變得更差，

but also a chance to make things better.

仲有機會令到件事變得更好。

If we take the right steps,

如果我哋採取正確嘅行動，

we can make COVID-19 the last pandemic,

就可以令到新冠病毒 成為最後一次大流行，

and we can build a healthier, more equitable world for everyone.

我哋就可以為所有人 建立更健康公平嘅世界。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Helen Walters: Thank you so much.

Helen Walters: 多謝曬。

I have a few follow-up questions

我有幾個後續嘅問題，

and one is really about the formal status of GERM.

其中一個同 GERM 正式地位非常有關。

So you mentioned this would cost a billion dollars,

你提到要花 10 億美金，

會由 WHO 來實踐，

you mentioned it comes through the WHO,

但係邊啲人負責， 又點樣運作？

but exactly who's running this, how does this work,

計劃點樣實現？

how do we make this happen?

BG: Well, GERM does not exist.

BG：嗱， GERM 並唔存在。

It's a proposal I'm putting forward that hopefully over the next year,

佢係我嘅一項提議， 希望可以趁著明年

while the pain of the pandemic is still clear in people's minds,

大家仲記得疫情嘅傷痛，

will get a global consensus.

可以得到全球性共識。

The rich-world governments will have to step up

富國政府就會採取行動，

like they do with all the aid things and come up with that money.

就好似佢地喺援助窮國時一樣， 會攞出所需嘅款項。

The way the personnel systems works, so that it's under WHO,

人事部門嘅運作方式， GERM 隸屬於 WHO，

but a really top-notch team,

係個一流嘅團隊，

there will be a lot of debate about how to do that well.

大家需要好多討論 才知道點先做得好。

So, you know, I'm putting it forward

所以我將佢提出來，

and hopefully within the next year we'll get that consensus.

希望出年我哋就可以取得共識。

HW: Who do you need to pick that up next?

HW：接著要邊啲人承擔呢？

BG: Well, it's really the rich-world governments.

BG：我哋真係需要富國嘅政府。

The WHO has this big yearly meeting, the World Health Assembly,

WHO 每年舉辦盛大嘅世界衛生大會，

未來有人會喺某個時間點 提出解決方案，

and at some point somebody will put forward a resolution

and we'll see if the extra resources can be put in for that.

我哋就觀察可唔可以 投入更多資源。

After World War II, we did a lot.

第二次世界大戰之後， 我哋做咗好多嘢。

You know, we created the United Nations, we talked a lot about war.

我哋創立咗聯合國， 討論咗好多關於戰爭嘅事。

So I'd be stunned, although, you know,

目前行動仍然少於我嘅預期，

so far the action has been less than I would have expected,

若果未來唔可以做到

I'd be stunned if we don't go forward with something pretty close

類似我剛剛所描述嘅，

to what I'm laying out there.

我就會好驚訝。

HW：呢度仲有條個人問題。

HW: This has been pretty personal for you.

You know, the anti-vaxxers are out there, they are loud,

有反疫苗人士， 佢哋嘅聲音好大，

and this has become personal.

宜家變咗人身攻擊。

I just wanted to ask, like, how are you managing that?

我只係想問下， 你會點樣處理？

BG: Well, it's kind of weird.

BG：係有啲怪。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Now, our foundation, the Gates Foundation, is very involved in vaccines,

宜家，蓋茨基金會 對疫苗有好多投入，

the invention of new vaccines, funding vaccines.

支持新疫苗嘅發明 及資助疫苗。

And we're very proud that through joint efforts like GAVI,

我哋好自豪，喺共同努力下， 例如同全球疫苗免疫聯盟合作，

that saved tens of millions of lives.

拯救咗幾千萬條生命。

So it's somewhat ironic to have somebody turn around and say, no, you know,

諷刺嘅係，有人轉頭就話 件事唔係噉嘅，

we're using vaccines to kill people or to make money or, you know,

佢哋話我哋用疫苗殺人或者賺錢，

仲挑起咗疫情大流行，

we started the pandemic,

even some strange things like, that I somehow want to track, you know,

仲有更怪異嘅，

話我想要追蹤啲人嘅位置，

the location of individuals

because I'm so deeply desirous to know where everybody is.

因為我真係好想知道 大家宜家喺邊。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with that information.

我都唔知攞呢啲資料嚟做咩。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

You know, does this turn into something where, you know,

呢啲資料可能攞黎 唔知做啲咩架嘛，

there's constantly crazy people showing up?

唔通一直有瘋狂嘅人出現？

Who knows?

邊個會知呢？

But, you know, hopefully, as the pandemic calms down,

希望隨著疫情降溫，

people are more rational about, hey,

大家會變得更加理智，

vaccines are a miracle and there's a lot more we can do.

疫苗係個奇跡， 我哋仲有好多嘢要做。

HW: So the future is in our hands in the present.

HW：未來喺宜家我哋嘅手上。

Bill Gates, thank you so much for being here.

Bill Gates，好多謝你嚟到呢度。

BG: Thank you.

BG：多謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）