We Can Make COVID-19 the Last Pandemic | Bill Gates | TED

翻译人员: Tina Cheng 校对人员: Cissy Yun

In the year 6 CE,

在公元六年，

a fire devastated Rome.

一场大火摧毁了罗马。

In response,

来应对此次火灾，

Emperor Augustus did something that had never been done before

皇帝奥古斯做了一件

in the history of the Empire.

在帝国历史上从未做过的事：

He created a permanent team of firefighters

他创建了一个永久性的消防员团队，

who used buckets just like this one.

用着像这样的水桶。

Augustus understood that individuals alone can't protect themselves from fires.

奥古斯意识到， 个人无法保护自己免受火灾的威胁，

They need help from the community.

我们需要社区的帮助。

When one person's house is on fire,

一幢房子若不幸着火，

that creates a risk for everyone else's homes.

就会给他人的房子带来风险。

And so what we've had these last few years is like a horrific global fire.

在这几年，我们人类见证的就如 一场可怖的全球火灾。

The COVID pandemic has killed millions and upended economies,

新冠疫情已导致数百万人死亡 并破坏了经济，

and we want to stop that from happening again.

我们不希望再重蹈覆辙。

COVID, it's hard to overstate how awful it's been.

新冠肺炎的可怕程度 怎么说都不过分。

It's increased the health inequities between the rich and the poor.

它加剧了富人和穷人之间的健康不平等。

Survival depended partly on your income, your race,

你的幸存几率 和你的收入、种族

the neighborhood you lived in.

和居住地紧紧相关。

And so we should seize this opportunity

我们应该抓住这个机会

to create a world where everyone has a chance

来创造一个世界

to live a healthy and productive life.

让每一个人都有机会

Also a life free from the fear of the next COVID-19.

活的健康、充实。

When I was on this stage in 2015,

在2015年的TED大会上，

I was one of many people who said

我还有很多人都说

we weren't ready and we needed to get ready.

面对疫情我们毫无准备， 而我们需要迅速行动起来。

We didn't.

我们并没有。

The speech actually was watched by a lot of people.

很多人看了那个演讲。

But 90 percent of the views were after it was too late.

但90%的观看量都发生在 为时已晚之后。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

So now I hope the need is clear.

现在我希望 这种必要性是显然易见的。

And of course, we've learned a lot.

当然，我们掌握了不少新知识。

During this pandemic,

在这场大流行病中，

a lot of things worked well, a lot of things didn't work well.

一些措施都很有效， 而其他则不管用。

And so we have all that knowledge to build a prevention system.

我们得利用我们的知识储备 来建立一个预防系统。

COVID-19 can be the last pandemic if we take the right steps.

若我们走对下一步棋， COVID-19可成为最后一场大流行病，

So how, what are these steps?

所以怎么才能做到？

Well, let's go back and look at what the Romans did.

让我们看看罗马人当时怎么做的。

Think about how, over time, we've gotten good at preventing big fires.

想想，随着时间的推移， 人们变得善于预防大火灾。

Fire prevention is kind of this pervasive thing.

防火是一件很普遍的事情。

It's well funded.

它有着充足的预算资金。

It's well understood.

它被人熟知并理解。

If an alarm went off right now,

如果火警现在响了，

everyone here would know we're supposed to calmly gather,

所有在场观众都知道

go out and wait instructions.

我们应经条有序的走向安全出口， 在外面等待指令。

We'd know that help would be on the way

我们清楚救援马上会到，

because we have lots of trained firefighters who practice.

因为我们有很多训练有素的消防员。

The United States alone has 370,000 full-time firefighters,

单单在美国， 我们有超过37万专职消防员，

even more than I guessed that number would be.

这个数字比我想象的还要多。

We also have access to water.

我们很容易获得大量的水。

The United States, for example, has almost nine million fire hydrants.

在美国，差不多有九百万个消防栓。

And so that type of investment, that type of practice,

高投入资金，大量训练，

that type of system is what we need to stop pandemics.

完善的系统， 是我们来对抗大流行病的必要条件。

Now, often in movies, we'll have pandemics.

在电影中， 时常有大流行病的桥段。

And I'm always impressed with what takes place.

电影中发生的一切 让我印象深刻。

Let's look at an example of this rapid response.

让我们看一个片段 其中的迅速反应。

[Motaba River Valley, Zaire]

[莫他巴河谷，扎伊尔]

(Helicopter rotors whirring)

(直升飞机旋翼声)

Well, that's quite impressive.

影片中值得赞赏。

We don't need the music,

背景音乐的确是有些过火，

but otherwise we saw exactly what should happen.

但这个片段展示了 在现实生活中本该发生的事。

An outbreak’s detected.

疫情开始爆发，

Very quickly, literally within days,

很快，在几天之内，

doctors are dispatched.

医生们迅速部署。

They have a helicopter to get into exactly ground zero.

直升机带领医生直达疫情中心。

They go in there, and they’ve got the right tools.

他们带着对的工具抵达。

And this is what should happen when an outbreak is spotted.

一旦发现疫情， 这是人们应该采取一系列措施。

But we don't have that team, we don't have those resources.

但我们现在没有这种团队， 没有这种资源。

And if an outbreak took place in a low-income country,

若疫情爆发于低收入国家，

it could be literally months

我们需要要数月

before we started to orchestrate those resources.

仅开始整理资源。

So despite what you see in movies,

与你在电影中看到的不同，

there is no group of experts standing by to prevent this disaster.

现今我们没有一个专家小组 随时待命来预防这场灾难。

So we have to create a new team.

所以我们必须建立一个新团队。

I believe we should create what I call the GERM team.

我认为 我们需要建立一个GERM团队。

Germ stands for Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization.

GERM是 全球流行病应对和动员的缩写。

This group is full-time.

它是一个全职小组。

Their only priority is pandemic prevention.

他们唯一的重点职责 是预防大流行病。

It's made up of a diverse set of specialists

GERM由来自广泛领域的专家组成

with a lot of different realms of expertise:

epidemiologists, data scientists,

流行病学家、数据科学家、

logistics experts.

物流专家。

And it's not just scientific and medical knowledge.

他们不仅仅有科学或医学知识，

They also have to have communication and diplomacy skills.

他们还具有沟通和外交能力。

The cost of this team is significant.

运行GERM团队花费不小。

It's over a billion a year

每年将要约10亿美元

to support the 3,000 people who would be on this team.

来支撑3000位团队成员。

And its mission is to stop outbreaks before they become pandemics.

它的任务是阻止疫情演变成大流行病。

The work would be coordinated by the WHO.

这项工作将由世卫组织协调。

They'd be present in many locations around the world,

GERM将身处世界各地，

stationed in public health agencies.

在公共卫生机构工作。

They'd work closely with the national teams,

他们会和当地国家的团队 紧密合作，

depending on the income level.

当然这也要看当地的收入情况。

They'd have more in the lower-income countries.

在低收入国家中， 分配的人手会更多。

You know, for example, we could have GERM members

举个例子，我们可以让GERM成员

say an epidemiologist, working out of the Africa CDC office in Abuja.

一位流行病学家在非洲疾病预防控制中心 驻阿布贾办公室工作。

And a very important thing is that like firefighters,

与消防员相似，

a GERM team would do drills.

GERM团队会经常进行演习。

When you want to have quick response,

你若想要及时的反应，

when you want to make sure you have all the pieces there

万事俱备，

and you can move very quickly, practice is key.

快速行动， 那练习是必不可少的。

That's how you make sure everyone knows what to do.

这样才能确保每个人都知道该怎么做。

Now, this team, there could be periods where there's no risky outbreak

这支队伍，可能会面对 一段时间没有危险疫情爆发，

and they can keep their skills strong

那他们可以

by working on some of the other infectious diseases,

治理其他传染病 帮助团队保持技能，

but that would be a second priority.

但那会是他们的第二责任。

They would work with countries to strengthen their health systems.

GERM将帮助各国加强其卫生系统。

The health systems are the front line.

卫生系统是就是前线。

You need to know if, say,

你若想知道，

a lot of people show up with a new kind of cough,

如果一群人带着一种奇怪的新咳嗽 出现在健康诊所，

that’s when GERM needs to look into it and say, is this an outbreak?

这时GERM就需研究并判断， 这是一场会蔓延的疫情吗？

Is there a new pathogen here?

这里有新的病原体吗?

What is the sequence of that?

它的序列是什么？

And so for all of this, the first 100 days are key.

对于这一切行动， 前100天将是关键。

Viruses spread exponentially.

病毒以指数方式传播。

And so if you get in there when the infection rate is fairly small,

所以如果能在感染率很小时开始控制，

you can actually stop the spread.

你实际上可以阻止传播。

You know, in this epidemic,

在这场流行病中，

if we'd been able to stop it within 100 days,

若我们可以在前100天阻止传播，

we would have saved over 98 percent of the lives.

我们可以拯救98%的生命。

Now, we did have countries that did a good job.

我们确实有一些国家做得很好。

Australia is an example.

比如说澳大利亚。

They orchestrated diagnostic capacity.

他们协调了诊断能力。

They came up with distancing policies and quarantine policies.

他们制定了保持距离和隔离政策。

And so their overall death rate per capita will be well less

因此，他们的人均总死亡率

than a 10th of other countries.

远低于其他国家的十分之一。

But we did not, as a world, contain it.

但就整个世界来讲， 我们并没有成功控制病毒。

And that's what we have to do next time.

这是我们在下一次必须做到的。

When COVID struck, we were almost like Rome

当新冠来临， 我们就像

before they had fire buckets and firefighters.

还未具备水桶和消防员的罗马。

We didn't have the people, the systems or the tools we need.

我们没有急需的人，系统和工具。

Now, with the right investments,

如果我们做出正确的投资

we can have a whole new generation of tools,

我们将拥有一系列更成熟的工具，

better diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines.

更有效的诊断、治疗和疫苗。

A good example in the diagnostic area is this little machine,

举个诊断方面的例子，

this is called the Lumira.

这个小小的机器叫做Lumira。

We can have these all over the world that can test for any number of diseases.

可以在世界任何地方检测多种疾病。

It’s a 10th as expensive as PCR,

与PCR测试相比 成本只有其十分之一，

it’s absolutely as accurate, and it’s simple.

结果一样准确， 而且用起来十分方便。

So it can be used anywhere.

几乎可以在任何地方使用。

We need other R&D investments.

我们需要其他研发投资。

One that I'm very excited about is the idea of a drug

有一个让我十分激动的想法是 一种可被吸入的药物

that you inhale that blocks you from getting infected.

保护你免受传染。

It can be pathogen-independent and trigger your immune system

它可以不依赖于病原体， 并触发你的免疫系统

so that you'll be protected.

保护你。

A lot of the tools, the diagnostic tools

许多工具，诊断工具

and those infection-blocking tools are important

和那些阻断感染工具十分重要，

because they can be staged in advance.

因为它们可以被提前部署。

Now, we also need vaccines,

我们也需要疫苗。

but we want to stop the outbreak

但我们更希望 在需要进行全球疫苗行动之前

before we have to do a global vaccination campaign.

阻止疫情的爆发

And so vaccines can play a couple of different roles,

疫苗可以扮演几个不同的角色，

but not the primary role.

但它并不是主角。

We have to invest in more than just that.

我们要投资的不止这些。

When we look at vaccines, they were the miracle of this epidemic.

当我们看到疫苗在这场流行病中 发挥了奇迹般的作用。

They saved millions of lives, but they can be far better.

它们拯救了百万生命， 但它还可以不断进步。

We need to invent easier-to-deliver vaccines

我们需要投资研发 更容易提供的疫苗

that are just a patch you put on your arm

如手臂贴片或鼻腔喷雾。

or something that you inhale.

We need vaccines that actually block infections.

我们需要可以阻断感染的疫苗。

In this case, there were lots of breakthrough infections.

如今，我们看到了 不少接种疫苗后的感染。

We need vaccines that are broad spectrum,

我们需要广谱疫苗，

so they work against most of the emerging variants,

它们会与大多数新出现的变异相对抗，

which we did not have this time.

我们现在还没有这种疫苗。

And we also need factories that are standing by

同时，我们需要工厂待命，

so we can build enough vaccines for the entire world

这样才可以为全世界人民 生产足够疫苗，

within six months

这要在六个月内完成，

and achieve far better equity.

达到真正意义上的公平。

The vaccines can also do something that would be super helpful,

疫苗还可以做一些非常有用的事情，

which is to help us eradicate entire families of viruses.

比如说完全消除整个病毒家族。

Innovative new vaccines used properly could get rid of the flu family,

正确使用创新的新疫苗 可以消除流感家族，

the coronavirus family.

或是冠状病毒家族。

And there's a huge burden of those,

这些病毒是我们巨大的负担，

even in non-pandemic years,

在没有大流行的年代也是这样，

and if we get rid of it, it can never cause a pandemic.

如果我们可以清除它们， 将在不会引起一场大流行病。

So I'm talking about investments in three broad areas:

我在谈论三个广泛领域的投资:

Disease monitoring,

疾病监测，

that's GERM.

就是GERM。

The R and D tools that are far better.

更好的研发工具。

And finally, and the most expensive, is improved health systems.

还有其中花费最高的， 提升我们的卫生系统。

This won't be cheap, but it'll save lives.

这些不会很便宜， 它们将拯救生命。

And even it'll save money in the long run.

并从长远角度来看， 它还会省钱。

It's like an insurance policy.

就像是一个保险政策。

The cost to prevent the next pandemic will be tens of billions of dollars.

来预防下一次大流行病 我们要花费几十亿美元。

But let's compare that to what we just went through.

但是让我们把它和 我们刚刚经历的疫情做个比较。

The IMF estimates that COVID has cost nearly 14 trillion dollars.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)估计， 新冠肺炎已经造成近14万亿美元损失。

And so we need to spend billions in order to save trillions.

为了节省这数万亿美元， 我们必须要花这数十亿美元。

And here's the best part of this.

最好的部分是。

Even when we're not having an outbreak, these investments like the Lumira,

在没有疫情时， 对类似Lumira工具的投资，

those new vaccines,

新型疫苗，

they will make people healthier.

会让人们更健康。

They'll shrink the gap, the health equity gap,

他们会缩小贫富之间的健康差距，

which is gigantic, between rich and poor countries.

现今在贫困和富有国家之间， 健康差距是一个巨大鸿沟。

For example, we can detect more HIV cases and do a better job of treatment.

例如，我们可以发现更多艾滋病毒病例， 并更好地进行治疗。

We can reduce deaths from malaria.

我们可以减少疟疾造成的死亡。

We can get more people high-quality care.

我们可以为更多的人 提供高质量的医疗服务。

And so this is not just a downer

所以这并不是

about how to stop things from getting worse,

只能阻止坏情况发酵的灰心事，

but also a chance to make things better.

而是一个让世界变更好的机会。

If we take the right steps,

若我们走对棋，

we can make COVID-19 the last pandemic,

我们可以让COVID-19 成为最后的大流行病，

and we can build a healthier, more equitable world for everyone.

我们也可以为所有人建造一个 更健康，更公平的世界。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

Helen Walters: Thank you so much.

海伦·沃特斯：非常感谢你。

I have a few follow-up questions

我有几个想跟进的问题，

and one is really about the formal status of GERM.

其中一个是关于 GERM的现状。

So you mentioned this would cost a billion dollars,

你提到了这将花费10亿美元，

you mentioned it comes through the WHO,

你也提到了 这需要通过世卫组织来实现，

but exactly who's running this, how does this work,

但究竟谁来经营， 工作将如何进行，

how do we make this happen?

我们如何实现这一目标？

BG: Well, GERM does not exist.

盖茨：目前来说， GERM并不存在。

It's a proposal I'm putting forward that hopefully over the next year,

这是我提出的一个建议， 希望在未来的一年里，

while the pain of the pandemic is still clear in people's minds,

当新冠的痛苦 还很清晰的在我们脑海里，

will get a global consensus.

将会获得一个全球共识。

The rich-world governments will have to step up

强国的政府， 将不得不采取行动，

like they do with all the aid things and come up with that money.

就像他们做出的援助那样 并拿出这笔钱。

The way the personnel systems works, so that it's under WHO,

人事运作方面， 在世卫的领导下，

but a really top-notch team,

这是一个真正的一流团队，

there will be a lot of debate about how to do that well.

关于如何做好这一点， 将会有很多辩论。

So, you know, I'm putting it forward

我现在提出这个想法，

and hopefully within the next year we'll get that consensus.

并希望在明年 我们会达到这个共识。

HW: Who do you need to pick that up next?

沃特斯：接下来需要谁来接这个项目？

BG: Well, it's really the rich-world governments.

盖茨：嗯，说实在， 应该是是富裕国家的政府。

The WHO has this big yearly meeting, the World Health Assembly,

世卫组织每年都有这样的大型会议。 世界卫生大会，

and at some point somebody will put forward a resolution

在这个时候会有人 提出一个建议，

and we'll see if the extra resources can be put in for that.

我们将看看 能否为此投入额外的资源。

After World War II, we did a lot.

第二次世界大战后， 我们做了很多。

You know, we created the United Nations, we talked a lot about war.

你知道，我们创建了联合国。 我们谈了很多关于战争的问题。

So I'd be stunned, although, you know,

所以我会感到震惊，

so far the action has been less than I would have expected,

因为目前的行动 比我预期的要少。

I'd be stunned if we don't go forward with something pretty close

如果我们不以 非常接近我刚描述的方式前进，

to what I'm laying out there.

我会感到震惊。

HW: This has been pretty personal for you.

沃特斯：这个话题与你紧密相关。

You know, the anti-vaxxers are out there, they are loud,

你知道，反疫苗主义者十分活跃，

and this has become personal.

这已经变成了私人恩怨。

I just wanted to ask, like, how are you managing that?

我想问的是， 你是如何处理这个问题的？

BG: Well, it's kind of weird.

盖茨：说来奇怪。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（掌声）

Now, our foundation, the Gates Foundation, is very involved in vaccines,

现在，我们的基金会， 即盖茨基金会，

the invention of new vaccines, funding vaccines.

在疫苗方面有很大的投入。

And we're very proud that through joint efforts like GAVI,

我们感到非常自豪的是，通过像全球疫苗 和免疫联盟的共同努力，

that saved tens of millions of lives.

拯救了数以千万计的生命。

So it's somewhat ironic to have somebody turn around and say, no, you know,

因此，有人转过头来说 我们利用疫苗来杀人

we're using vaccines to kill people or to make money or, you know,

或者是为了赚钱， 是很讽刺的。

we started the pandemic,

或者说 是我们引发了大流行病。

even some strange things like, that I somehow want to track, you know,

甚至一些奇怪的事情， 比如我想通过疫苗追踪

the location of individuals

你的个人定位

because I'm so deeply desirous to know where everybody is.

因为我是如此深切地渴望 想知道每个人在哪里。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

I'm not sure what I'm going to do with that information.

我不确定 我将如何处理这些信息。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

You know, does this turn into something where, you know,

这是否会形成

there's constantly crazy people showing up?

不断有疯狂的人在我面前出现？

Who knows?

谁知道呢？

But, you know, hopefully, as the pandemic calms down,

但是希望 随着大流行病的平静下来，

people are more rational about, hey,

人们会更加理性地看待，

vaccines are a miracle and there's a lot more we can do.

疫苗是一个奇迹， 而且我们还可以做很多事情。

HW: So the future is in our hands in the present.

沃特斯: 所以未来在我们手中。

Bill Gates, thank you so much for being here.

比尔·盖茨，非常感谢你来到这里。

BG: Thank you.

盖茨：谢谢你。

(Applause)

(掌声)