We Can Make COVID-19 the Last Pandemic | Bill Gates | TED

765,087 views ・ 2022-04-22

TED


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譯者: 至磊Zi Le 黃Ng 審譯者: Helen Chang
00:04
In the year 6 CE,
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公元 6 年,
00:07
a fire devastated Rome.
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一場火災肆虐羅馬。
00:09
In response,
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作為回應,
00:11
Emperor Augustus did something that had never been done before
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奧古斯都皇帝做了一件 帝國歷史上從未做過的事,
00:15
in the history of the Empire.
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00:18
He created a permanent team of firefighters
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他創立了一個永久性的消防隊,
00:22
who used buckets just like this one.
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用這種水桶滅火。
00:26
Augustus understood that individuals alone can't protect themselves from fires.
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奧古斯都理解到單獨的個人 無法自我保護免於火災,
00:32
They need help from the community.
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而是需要社群的幫助。
00:35
When one person's house is on fire,
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當一人的房子失火,
00:37
that creates a risk for everyone else's homes.
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就會對其他所有人的房子構成風險。
00:41
And so what we've had these last few years is like a horrific global fire.
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我們最近幾年遇到的 就像一場可怕的全球性火災。
00:48
The COVID pandemic has killed millions and upended economies,
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新型冠狀病毒疫情 殺死了數百萬人,破壞了經濟,
00:53
and we want to stop that from happening again.
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我們想要阻止這種事再度發生。
00:58
COVID, it's hard to overstate how awful it's been.
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說新冠病毒有多糟都不為過。
01:03
It's increased the health inequities between the rich and the poor.
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它加深了富人和窮人的健康不平等。
01:08
Survival depended partly on your income, your race,
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存活與否有一部分取決於 你的收入、種族、你住在哪個社區。
01:12
the neighborhood you lived in.
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01:14
And so we should seize this opportunity
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我們應該把握這個機會
01:17
to create a world where everyone has a chance
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讓世界上人人都可以活得健康多彩,
01:20
to live a healthy and productive life.
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01:23
Also a life free from the fear of the next COVID-19.
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也不必恐懼下一場 如同新冠病毒的事件。
01:30
When I was on this stage in 2015,
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2015 年我站在這個講臺,
01:33
I was one of many people who said
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跟很多人一樣,
我說我們還沒準備好, 而且我們必須準備好。
01:36
we weren't ready and we needed to get ready.
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01:40
We didn't.
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但我們還是沒有。
01:42
The speech actually was watched by a lot of people.
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那場演講其實很多人看過。
01:45
But 90 percent of the views were after it was too late.
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但九成的點閱數是在 為時已晚的時候。
01:50
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
01:53
So now I hope the need is clear.
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現在,我希望這個必要性夠清楚了。
01:58
And of course, we've learned a lot.
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當然,我們學到了很多。
02:00
During this pandemic,
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在這次疫情期間,
02:01
a lot of things worked well, a lot of things didn't work well.
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許多事辦得很好, 也有許多事辦不好。
02:06
And so we have all that knowledge to build a prevention system.
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我們全都有了建構預防系統的知識。
02:11
COVID-19 can be the last pandemic if we take the right steps.
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如果我們踏出正確的步伐, 新冠病毒可以是最後的疫情大流行。
02:18
So how, what are these steps?
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所以該怎麼做?踏出什麼步伐?
02:22
Well, let's go back and look at what the Romans did.
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那我們回頭看看古羅馬人怎麼做。
02:26
Think about how, over time, we've gotten good at preventing big fires.
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想想我們是怎麼 漸漸擅長預防大火的。
02:32
Fire prevention is kind of this pervasive thing.
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火災預防很普遍。
02:35
It's well funded.
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它獲得很多資助,
02:36
It's well understood.
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被很好地理解。
02:38
If an alarm went off right now,
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如果現在警報響起,
02:40
everyone here would know we're supposed to calmly gather,
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所有人都知道我們應該冷靜地集結,
02:44
go out and wait instructions.
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走出出口等待指示。
02:46
We'd know that help would be on the way
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我們知道援助已經上路,
02:48
because we have lots of trained firefighters who practice.
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因為我們有很多 訓練有素的消防員在工作。
02:52
The United States alone has 370,000 full-time firefighters,
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單單美國就有 37 萬名全職消防員,
02:58
even more than I guessed that number would be.
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比我預估的人數還多。
03:02
We also have access to water.
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我們也有途徑取得水。
03:04
The United States, for example, has almost nine million fire hydrants.
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例如美國有近九百萬個消防栓。
03:10
And so that type of investment, that type of practice,
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這種投資、措施、系統
03:13
that type of system is what we need to stop pandemics.
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就是阻止疫情所需要的。
03:20
Now, often in movies, we'll have pandemics.
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我們常會在電影裡看到疫情,
03:23
And I'm always impressed with what takes place.
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我總是對這些故事印象深刻。
03:25
Let's look at an example of this rapid response.
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讓我們看看這個快速反應的例子。
03:29
[Motaba River Valley, Zaire]
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[莫塔巴河谷,薩伊]
03:31
(Helicopter rotors whirring)
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(直升機旋翼呼呼作響)
03:46
Well, that's quite impressive.
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那十分令人印象深刻。
03:47
We don't need the music,
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我們不需要音樂,
03:49
but otherwise we saw exactly what should happen.
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但我們確切看到了事情應該是怎麼樣。
03:52
An outbreak’s detected.
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偵測到疫情爆發;
03:54
Very quickly, literally within days,
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非常快速地,在僅僅幾天內,
03:57
doctors are dispatched.
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就派了醫師過來;
03:59
They have a helicopter to get into exactly ground zero.
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他們搭乘直升機到達精確的爆發點;
04:03
They go in there, and they’ve got the right tools.
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他們進入房內,並帶著正確的工具。
04:06
And this is what should happen when an outbreak is spotted.
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這就是發現疫情爆發時該發生的事。
04:12
But we don't have that team, we don't have those resources.
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但我們沒有那種團隊, 我們沒有那些資源。
04:17
And if an outbreak took place in a low-income country,
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如果一場疫情爆發於低所得國家,
04:21
it could be literally months
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可能需要足足幾個月 我們才會準備好那些資源。
04:22
before we started to orchestrate those resources.
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04:25
So despite what you see in movies,
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所以不同於你們在電影看到的,
04:28
there is no group of experts standing by to prevent this disaster.
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我們沒有準備就緒的專家團隊 來預防這場災難。
04:34
So we have to create a new team.
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因此我們需要創立一個新的團隊。
04:36
I believe we should create what I call the GERM team.
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我相信我們應該創立 GERM 團隊,
04:39
Germ stands for Global Epidemic Response and Mobilization.
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GERM 代表「全球疫情反應與動員」。
04:45
This group is full-time.
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這個團隊是全職的,
04:48
Their only priority is pandemic prevention.
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他們唯一的要務是預防疫情。
04:51
It's made up of a diverse set of specialists
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這個團隊由各式各樣的專家所組成,
04:54
with a lot of different realms of expertise:
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在很多領域各有專精:
04:57
epidemiologists, data scientists,
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流行病學家、資料科學家、 物流管理專家。
05:01
logistics experts.
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05:02
And it's not just scientific and medical knowledge.
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他們不只有科學和醫學知識,
05:05
They also have to have communication and diplomacy skills.
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還有溝通和協商技能。
05:10
The cost of this team is significant.
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這個團隊的開銷很巨大,
05:11
It's over a billion a year
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每年超過新臺幣 300 億元,
05:13
to support the 3,000 people who would be on this team.
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以維持 3000 名團隊成員。
05:17
And its mission is to stop outbreaks before they become pandemics.
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這個團隊的任務是 阻止疫病爆發演變成大流行。
05:24
The work would be coordinated by the WHO.
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這項工作需要世界衛生組織的協同,
05:27
They'd be present in many locations around the world,
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他們會在世界上許多地點
05:30
stationed in public health agencies.
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進駐公共衛生機構,
05:33
They'd work closely with the national teams,
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與各國團隊緊密合作,
05:36
depending on the income level.
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視該地的所得多寡而定,
05:39
They'd have more in the lower-income countries.
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在低所得國家駐紮較多的人。
05:42
You know, for example, we could have GERM members
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舉例來說,我們可以請 GERM 成員,
05:45
say an epidemiologist, working out of the Africa CDC office in Abuja.
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例如一位流行病學家,
在非洲疾病管制預防中心的 阿布加辦公室工作。
05:51
And a very important thing is that like firefighters,
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一件非常重要的事情是 就如同消防隊員,
05:56
a GERM team would do drills.
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GERM 團隊會進行演習。
06:00
When you want to have quick response,
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若要快速地反應,
06:02
when you want to make sure you have all the pieces there
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若要確保所需的一切物件齊備 且能很快速地行動,
06:05
and you can move very quickly, practice is key.
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演練就是關鍵。
06:09
That's how you make sure everyone knows what to do.
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這是確保所有人 都知道該做什麼的方法。
06:12
Now, this team, there could be periods where there's no risky outbreak
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在沒有傳染病爆發風險的時期
06:16
and they can keep their skills strong
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這個團隊仍可藉處理其他的傳染病 來保持強大的能力,
06:19
by working on some of the other infectious diseases,
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06:23
but that would be a second priority.
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不過這只會是第二優先。
06:25
They would work with countries to strengthen their health systems.
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他們會和各國合作, 強化那些國家的醫療系統。
06:31
The health systems are the front line.
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醫療系統是第一線。
06:35
You need to know if, say,
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得要明白,舉例來說,
06:38
a lot of people show up with a new kind of cough,
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如果很多人出現一種新型的咳嗽,
06:42
that’s when GERM needs to look into it and say, is this an outbreak?
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這就是 GERM 團隊要調查的時候, 判斷這是不是傳染病的爆發,
06:47
Is there a new pathogen here?
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有沒有新的病原體,
06:48
What is the sequence of that?
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後果會是什麼?
06:50
And so for all of this, the first 100 days are key.
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對這些工作而言, 前一百天會是關鍵。
06:55
Viruses spread exponentially.
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病毒以指數性成長在傳播。
06:57
And so if you get in there when the infection rate is fairly small,
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如果能在感染率還很低時抵達那裡,
07:03
you can actually stop the spread.
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其實就可以阻斷傳播。
07:06
You know, in this epidemic,
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要知道在這場疫情裡,
07:08
if we'd been able to stop it within 100 days,
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如果我們得以在一百天內阻止它,
07:12
we would have saved over 98 percent of the lives.
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我們就可以拯救超過 98% 的生命。
07:16
Now, we did have countries that did a good job.
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我們有看到一些國家做得很好。
07:18
Australia is an example.
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澳大利亞是一個範例。
07:20
They orchestrated diagnostic capacity.
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他們細緻規劃檢驗量能,
07:23
They came up with distancing policies and quarantine policies.
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構思出社交距離和隔離政策,
07:27
And so their overall death rate per capita will be well less
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所以他們的整體人均死亡率 不到其他國家的十分之一。
07:32
than a 10th of other countries.
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07:34
But we did not, as a world, contain it.
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但在全世界,我們沒有控制住疫情,
07:38
And that's what we have to do next time.
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這就是我們下次必須要做的。
07:41
When COVID struck, we were almost like Rome
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新冠病毒來襲時,
我們就像沒有滅火桶 和消防隊員的羅馬。
07:44
before they had fire buckets and firefighters.
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07:48
We didn't have the people, the systems or the tools we need.
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我們沒有所需的人力、系統或器具。
07:52
Now, with the right investments,
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現在,如果正確投資,
07:53
we can have a whole new generation of tools,
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我們可以有全新一代的工具、
07:57
better diagnostics, therapeutics and vaccines.
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更好的篩檢、治療和疫苗。
08:01
A good example in the diagnostic area is this little machine,
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在檢測方面這臺小機器 是一個很好的範例,
08:05
this is called the Lumira.
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它叫「 Lumira 」。
08:07
We can have these all over the world that can test for any number of diseases.
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我們可在全世界設置這種機器 檢測任意數量的疾病,
08:11
It’s a 10th as expensive as PCR,
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要價是聚合酶連鎖反應的十分之一,
08:14
it’s absolutely as accurate, and it’s simple.
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它絕對一樣準確、簡單易用,
08:16
So it can be used anywhere.
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所以可以使用於任何地方。
08:18
We need other R&D investments.
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我們需要投資於其他研發。
08:20
One that I'm very excited about is the idea of a drug
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其中一個讓我非常興奮的點子
08:23
that you inhale that blocks you from getting infected.
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是一種吸入就能 為你阻斷感染的藥物。
08:27
It can be pathogen-independent and trigger your immune system
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它可以是不限病原體的, 會刺激你的免疫系統,
08:30
so that you'll be protected.
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你就能獲得保護。
08:33
A lot of the tools, the diagnostic tools
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很多器具很重要, 例如檢測和感染阻斷器材,
08:35
and those infection-blocking tools are important
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08:39
because they can be staged in advance.
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因為它們可以超前部署。
08:42
Now, we also need vaccines,
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我們也需要疫苗,
08:44
but we want to stop the outbreak
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但我們希望在需要全球性施打行動前 阻斷疫情的爆發。
08:47
before we have to do a global vaccination campaign.
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08:51
And so vaccines can play a couple of different roles,
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所以疫苗可以扮演很多不同角色,
08:55
but not the primary role.
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不限於主要功能。
08:56
We have to invest in more than just that.
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我們必須投資不只那樣。
09:00
When we look at vaccines, they were the miracle of this epidemic.
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疫苗可說是這次大流行的奇跡。
09:04
They saved millions of lives, but they can be far better.
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疫苗拯救了數百萬人的性命, 但它可以做得更好。
09:08
We need to invent easier-to-deliver vaccines
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我們必須發明便於運輸的疫苗,
09:11
that are just a patch you put on your arm
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只是一塊貼在手臂上的貼布 或可以吸入的東西。
09:14
or something that you inhale.
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09:16
We need vaccines that actually block infections.
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我們需要可以確實阻斷感染的疫苗。
09:19
In this case, there were lots of breakthrough infections.
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在這方面,目前有很多突破性感染。
09:22
We need vaccines that are broad spectrum,
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我們需要廣效性的疫苗
09:24
so they work against most of the emerging variants,
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來對抗絕大多數新生的變種病毒,
09:28
which we did not have this time.
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這是我們這次所沒有的。
09:29
And we also need factories that are standing by
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我們也需要待命的工廠,
09:33
so we can build enough vaccines for the entire world
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讓我們可以在六個月內 生產足夠全世界使用的疫苗,
09:35
within six months
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09:37
and achieve far better equity.
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達到更平等。
09:40
The vaccines can also do something that would be super helpful,
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這些疫苗可以辦到非常有用的事情,
09:44
which is to help us eradicate entire families of viruses.
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那就是幫助我們消滅整個病毒家族。
09:48
Innovative new vaccines used properly could get rid of the flu family,
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如果正確使用創新的疫苗, 就能消除流感病毒、冠狀病毒家族。
09:54
the coronavirus family.
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09:55
And there's a huge burden of those,
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這些病毒是很大的負擔,
09:57
even in non-pandemic years,
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即便是沒有大流行的年分,
09:59
and if we get rid of it, it can never cause a pandemic.
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如果我們將其消滅, 它們就永遠不會引發大流行了。
10:03
So I'm talking about investments in three broad areas:
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我在談論的是投資於三個大領域:
10:06
Disease monitoring,
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疾病偵測,
10:08
that's GERM.
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就是 GERM 團隊;
10:09
The R and D tools that are far better.
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更好的研發工具;
10:12
And finally, and the most expensive, is improved health systems.
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最後,也是最昂貴的, 就是改善醫療系統。
10:17
This won't be cheap, but it'll save lives.
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這不便宜,但會拯救生命,
10:20
And even it'll save money in the long run.
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長期下來甚至能節省資金。
10:23
It's like an insurance policy.
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它就像買一份保險。
10:27
The cost to prevent the next pandemic will be tens of billions of dollars.
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預防下一場大流行的開銷 是新臺幣數千億元,
10:31
But let's compare that to what we just went through.
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但我們跟這次做個比較。
10:35
The IMF estimates that COVID has cost nearly 14 trillion dollars.
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國際貨幣基金組織估計新冠病毒 用掉了新臺幣近 420 兆元。
10:41
And so we need to spend billions in order to save trillions.
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為了省下幾百兆, 我們需要付出幾千億。
10:48
And here's the best part of this.
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這些事情最棒的部分是這樣的。
10:50
Even when we're not having an outbreak, these investments like the Lumira,
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即使在沒有大流行的時期,
這些投資,例如 Lumira 、新疫苗,
10:55
those new vaccines,
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10:57
they will make people healthier.
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仍然會讓人類更健康。
10:59
They'll shrink the gap, the health equity gap,
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它們可以縮小健康不平等的差距,
11:02
which is gigantic, between rich and poor countries.
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富國和窮國之間的差距很巨大。
11:07
For example, we can detect more HIV cases and do a better job of treatment.
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例如,我們能偵測到 更多愛滋個案,更好地治療;
11:13
We can reduce deaths from malaria.
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我們能降低瘧疾的死亡人數;
11:16
We can get more people high-quality care.
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我們能讓更多人獲得高品質的照護。
11:19
And so this is not just a downer
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所以這不只是 消極地防止事情變得更糟,
11:22
about how to stop things from getting worse,
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11:25
but also a chance to make things better.
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還是一個讓事情更好的機會。
11:29
If we take the right steps,
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如果我們採取正確的行動,
11:32
we can make COVID-19 the last pandemic,
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就能讓新冠病毒 成為最後一次大流行,
11:36
and we can build a healthier, more equitable world for everyone.
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我們就可以為所有人 建立更健康公平的世界。
11:42
Thank you.
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謝謝你們。
11:43
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
11:57
Helen Walters: Thank you so much.
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海倫‧華特斯:非常感謝您。
11:59
I have a few follow-up questions
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我有幾個後續的問題,
12:00
and one is really about the formal status of GERM.
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其中一個和 GERM 的 正式地位非常有關。
12:03
So you mentioned this would cost a billion dollars,
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您提到這會花費 300 億元,
12:06
you mentioned it comes through the WHO,
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您提到這會由世界衛生組織來實踐,
12:08
but exactly who's running this, how does this work,
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但具體上誰負責營運? 它怎麼運作?
12:10
how do we make this happen?
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我們要怎麼實現它?
12:12
BG: Well, GERM does not exist.
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比:嗯, GERM 並不存在。
12:15
It's a proposal I'm putting forward that hopefully over the next year,
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它是我的一項提議,
希望可以趁著明年 大家還記得疫情的傷痛,
12:19
while the pain of the pandemic is still clear in people's minds,
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12:23
will get a global consensus.
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能得到全球性的共識。
12:25
The rich-world governments will have to step up
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富國的政府就會必須採取行動,
12:27
like they do with all the aid things and come up with that money.
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就像他們在援助窮國時一樣, 並拿出所需的款項。
12:31
The way the personnel systems works, so that it's under WHO,
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考慮到人事部門的運作方式, GERM 隸屬於世界衛生組織,
12:35
but a really top-notch team,
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但它是一個一流的團隊,
12:37
there will be a lot of debate about how to do that well.
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需要很多討論才能知道怎麼做得好。
12:40
So, you know, I'm putting it forward
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所以我將它提出來,
12:42
and hopefully within the next year we'll get that consensus.
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希望明年我們就能取得共識。
12:46
HW: Who do you need to pick that up next?
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海:你需要誰來承擔這項任務?
12:48
BG: Well, it's really the rich-world governments.
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比:那很需要富國的政府。
12:51
The WHO has this big yearly meeting, the World Health Assembly,
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世界衛生組織每年舉辦 盛大的世界衛生大會,
12:56
and at some point somebody will put forward a resolution
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未來的某個時間點 將會有人提出解方,
12:58
and we'll see if the extra resources can be put in for that.
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我們就觀察能否 有更多資源投入其中。
13:04
After World War II, we did a lot.
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第二次世界大戰後,我們做了很多。
13:07
You know, we created the United Nations, we talked a lot about war.
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我們創立聯合國, 討論很多關於戰爭的事。
13:10
So I'd be stunned, although, you know,
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所以雖然目前的行動 仍然少於我的預期,
13:13
so far the action has been less than I would have expected,
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13:16
I'd be stunned if we don't go forward with something pretty close
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但若未朝類似我所描述的方向前進, 我還是會很訝異。
13:20
to what I'm laying out there.
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13:24
HW: This has been pretty personal for you.
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海:這是一道個人意見的問題。
13:26
You know, the anti-vaxxers are out there, they are loud,
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你知道,有反疫苗人士, 他們聲量很大,
13:29
and this has become personal.
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所以這變得很個人。
13:30
I just wanted to ask, like, how are you managing that?
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我只是想問,你會怎麼處理?
13:34
BG: Well, it's kind of weird.
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比:嗯,這有點詭異。
13:36
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
13:39
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
13:44
Now, our foundation, the Gates Foundation, is very involved in vaccines,
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現在我們的蓋茲基金會 對疫苗有很多投入,
13:47
the invention of new vaccines, funding vaccines.
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支持新疫苗的發明、資助疫苗。
13:50
And we're very proud that through joint efforts like GAVI,
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我們很自豪在共同努力下, 例如全球疫苗免疫聯盟,
13:54
that saved tens of millions of lives.
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拯救了幾千萬條生命。
13:56
So it's somewhat ironic to have somebody turn around and say, no, you know,
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因此很諷刺的是有人說不是這回事,
13:59
we're using vaccines to kill people or to make money or, you know,
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說我們用疫苗殺人或賺錢,
說我們挑起了疫情,
14:03
we started the pandemic,
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14:04
even some strange things like, that I somehow want to track, you know,
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還有更怪異的 說我想要追蹤人們的位置,
14:08
the location of individuals
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14:10
because I'm so deeply desirous to know where everybody is.
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因為我深深渴望知道大家在哪裡。
14:14
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:15
I'm not sure what I'm going to do with that information.
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我不知道拿那些位置資訊做什麼。
14:18
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
14:21
You know, does this turn into something where, you know,
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難道會一直有瘋狂的人出現嗎?
14:24
there's constantly crazy people showing up?
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14:26
Who knows?
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誰知道?
14:28
But, you know, hopefully, as the pandemic calms down,
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希望隨著疫情降溫,
14:31
people are more rational about, hey,
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人們變得更為理智,
14:33
vaccines are a miracle and there's a lot more we can do.
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知道疫苗是一個奇跡, 以及我們還有很多事可做。
14:37
HW: So the future is in our hands in the present.
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海:所以此刻未來正在我們手中。
14:40
Bill Gates, thank you so much for being here.
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比爾‧蓋茲,非常感謝您來到這裡。
14:42
BG: Thank you.
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比:謝謝你。
14:43
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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