Adventures of an asteroid hunter | Carrie Nugent

72,549 views ・ 2017-04-04

TED


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I am holding something remarkably old.
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It is older than any human artifact,
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older than life on Earth,
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older than the continents and the oceans between them.
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This was formed over four billion years ago
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in the earliest days of the solar system
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while the planets were still forming.
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This rusty lump of nickel and iron may not appear special,
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but when it is cut open ...
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you can see that it is different from earthly metals.
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This pattern reveals metallic crystals that can only form out in space
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where molten metal can cool extremely slowly,
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a few degrees every million years.
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This was once part of a much larger object,
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one of millions left over after the planets formed.
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We call these objects asteroids.
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Asteroids are our oldest and most numerous cosmic neighbors.
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This graphic shows near-Earth asteroids orbiting around the Sun,
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shown in yellow,
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and swinging close to the Earth's orbit,
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shown in blue.
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The sizes of the Earth, Sun and asteroids have been greatly exaggerated
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so you can see them clearly.
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Teams of scientists across the globe are searching for these objects,
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discovering new ones every day,
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steadily mapping near-Earth space.
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Much of this work is funded by NASA.
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I think of the search for these asteroids as a giant public works project,
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but instead of building a highway, we're charting outer space,
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building an archive that will last for generations.
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These are the 1,556 near-Earth asteroids discovered just last year.
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And these are all of the known near-Earth asteroids,
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which at last count was 13,733.
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Each one has been imaged, cataloged
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and had its path around the Sun determined.
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Although it varies from asteroid to asteroid,
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the paths of most asteroids can be predicted for dozens of years.
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And the paths of some asteroids can be predicted with incredible precision.
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For example, scientists at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory
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predicted where the asteroid Toutatis was going to be four years in advance
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to within 30 kilometers.
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In those four years,
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Toutatis traveled 8.5 billion kilometers.
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That's a fractional precision
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of 0.000000004.
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(Laughter)
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Now, the reason I have this beautiful asteroid fragment
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is because, like all neighbors,
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asteroids sometimes drop by unexpectedly.
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(Laughter)
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Three years ago today,
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a small asteroid exploded over the city of Chelyabinsk, Russia.
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That object was about 19 meters across,
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or about as big as a convenience store.
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Objects of this size hit the Earth every 50 years or so.
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66 million years ago,
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a much larger object hit the Earth,
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causing a massive extinction.
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75 percent of plant and animal species were lost,
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including, sadly, the dinosaurs.
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That object was about 10 kilometers across,
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and 10 kilometers is roughly the cruising altitude of a 747 jet.
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So the next time you're in an airplane,
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snag a window seat, look out and imagine a rock so enormous
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that resting on the ground,
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it just grazes your wingtip.
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It's so wide that it takes your plane one full minute to fly past it.
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That's the size of the asteroid that hit the Earth.
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It has only been within my lifetime
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that asteroids have been considered a credible threat to our planet.
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And since then, there's been a focused effort underway
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to discover and catalog these objects.
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I am lucky enough to be part of this effort.
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I'm part of a team of scientists that use NASA's NEOWISE telescope.
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Now, NEOWISE was not designed to find asteroids.
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It was designed to orbit the earth and look far beyond our solar system
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to seek out the coldest stars and the most luminous galaxies.
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And it did that very well for its designed lifetime of seven months.
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But today, six years later, it's still going.
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We've repurposed it to discover and study asteroids.
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And although it's a wonderful little space robot,
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these days it's kind of like a used car.
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The cryogen that used to refrigerate its sensors is long gone,
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so we joke that its air-conditioning is broken.
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It's got 920 million miles on the odometer,
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but it still runs great
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and reliably takes a photograph of the sky every 11 seconds.
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It's taken 23 photos since I began speaking to you.
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One of the reasons NEOWISE is so valuable
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is that it sees the sky in the thermal infrared.
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That means that instead of seeing the sunlight that asteroids reflect,
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NEOWISE sees the heat that they emit.
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This is a vital capability since some asteroids are as dark as coal
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and can be difficult or impossible to spot with other telescopes.
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But all asteroids, light or dark, shine brightly for NEOWISE.
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Astronomers are using every technique at their disposal
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to discover and study asteroids.
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In 2010, a historic milestone was reached.
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The community, together, discovered over 90 percent of asteroids
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bigger than one kilometer across --
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objects capable of massive destruction to Earth.
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But the job's not done yet.
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An object 140 meters or bigger could decimate a medium-sized country.
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So far, we've only found 25 percent of those.
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We must keep searching the sky for near-Earth asteroids.
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We are the only species able to understand calculus
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or build telescopes.
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We know how to find these objects.
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This is our responsibility.
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If we found a hazardous asteroid with significant early warning,
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we could nudge it out of the way.
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Unlike earthquakes, hurricanes or volcanic eruptions,
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an asteroid impact can be precisely predicted
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and prevented.
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What we need to do now is map near-Earth space.
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We must keep searching the sky.
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Thank you.
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(Applause)
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