What would happen if everyone stopped eating meat tomorrow? - Carolyn Beans

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Yi-Ping Cho (Marssi)

Let's explore a hypothetical together.

讓我們一起來探討一個假想情境。

There are over four times as many livestock as people.

家畜的數量是人類的四倍以上。

Farmed cattle alone weigh nearly ten times as much

單單養殖牛的總重量幾乎就是 所有野生哺乳類動物加總的十倍。

as all wild mammals combined.

So imagine if a wizard of meatless dining suddenly appeared

想像一下，如果突然 出現了一名無肉餐飲巫師，

and with one wave of a wand wiped away all meat from our shelves—

一揮魔杖就讓我們架上 所有肉類都消失無蹤，

along with any desire to eat it.

也讓我們沒有吃肉的欲望。

Farm animals destined for food vanish— whisked away to another planet.

用來供應肉類的養殖場動物消失了——

被帶往另一個星球。

What happens in the following days, years, and even millennia?

接下來的幾天、幾年， 甚至幾千年會如何？

Overnight, food related greenhouse gas emissions drop by about 63%.

一夜之間，與食物相關的 溫室氣體排放量就下降了約 63％。

We no longer get protein and key nutrients

我們的蛋白質和重要營養素 不再來自約七百億隻雞、

from the approximately 70 billion chickens, 1.5 billion pigs,

十五億隻豬、

300 million cattle, and 200 million tons of fish and shellfish

三億頭牛，和兩億噸 魚類和甲殼類水生動物，

processed for consumption each year.

這是每年被加工成食品的動物數量。

To help fill this nutritional gap,

為了補足這些少掉的營養，

our demand for fruits, vegetables, and legumes go up—

我們對水果、蔬菜， 和豆類的需求增加——

a diet that most dietitians agree contains all of the nutrients we need

大多數營養師都認同這類飲食

包含有健康生活所需的所有營養。

for a healthy life.

But initially there aren’t enough of these foods to go around.

但最初，這類食物的 數量不夠滿足需求。

The rise in demand causes produce costs to soar.

需求的上升導致農產品成本飆升。

In regions like Mongolia,

在像蒙古這樣的地區，

where the harsh environment makes it difficult to grow vegetables,

因為環境惡劣，種植蔬菜十分困難，

a sudden lack of meat leaves people with little to eat.

肉類突然消失，讓大家 幾乎沒東西可以吃。

Cultures built around meat lose their foundations.

以肉類為中心建立的 文化失去了基礎。

Members of salmon-eating tribes in the Pacific Northwest of the United States,

例如，在美國太平洋西北部， 吃鮭魚的部落族人

for example, lose not only sustenance and livelihoods,

不僅失去了糧食和生計，

but an integral component of their religion.

也失去了其宗教的一大要素。

Tens of millions of anglers lose work that was already threatened

數千萬名垂釣者失去了

本來就已經因為魚類數量減少 而受到威脅的工作。

by dwindling fish populations.

As the meat industry collapses,

隨著肉類產業瓦解，

many households in developing countries are left scrambling for income

發展中國家的許多家庭

因為失去原本來自畜牧業的 收入而陷入辛苦掙扎。

that once came from livestock farming.

Some meat producers shift to agricultural crops,

有些肉類生產者轉型改種農作物，

which leave workers— and neighboring communities—

導致工人——以及鄰近社區——

less susceptible to respiratory diseases associated with livestock production.

比較不會受到畜牧生產 相關的呼吸系統疾病所影響。

As crop agriculture expands, prices come down.

隨著作物農業的擴大，價格會下降。

Ultimately, vegetarianism becomes less expensive than meat-eating

最終，在大部分國家， 吃素變得比吃肉便宜。

in most countries.

Luckily, we don’t need to clear new farmland to grow all this food.

幸運的是，我們並不必開墾 新的農地來種植所有這些食物。

Without animals raised for meat,

沒有為了食用而飼養的動物，

land that had been used to grow feed is now available.

以前用來種飼料的土地 現在空下來可供使用。

All things considered, our new diets require less land and water.

綜合來看，我們的新飲食 所需要的土地和水都較少。

Millions of deaths are avoided every year,

每年可以避免數百萬人死亡，

thanks in part to lower rates of heart disease, cancer,

有部分原因是因為 較少人患有心臟病、癌症，

and other conditions associated with red meat consumption.

以及其他和吃紅肉相關的疾病。

We no longer contract new pathogens from wild animals hunted for food,

我們不再因為捕殺野生動物 而染上新的病原體，

or novel influenza viruses from farmed pigs,

或因為養豬而染上新型的流感病毒，

or drug-resistant superbugs that develop in beef cattle

或在被餵食預防性 抗生素的食用牛身上

that have been preemptively fed antibiotics.

產生的高抗藥性超級細菌。

As the years pass, global biodiversity rises

隨時間過去，全球的 生物多樣性越來越高，

as habitat loss, pesticide use, and other pressures from agriculture subside.

因為棲息地喪失、 殺蟲劑使用的情況減少，

其他來自農業的壓力也趨於平緩。

Amazonian birds have more forest to fly over.

亞馬遜的鳥類有更多森林可以飛翔。

Fewer cheetahs are shot for stalking too close to livestock.

也比較少有獵豹因為 跟蹤牲畜時太過靠近而被槍殺。

Bee, wasp, and butterfly communities thrive as natural areas expand.

隨著自然區域的擴大，蜜蜂、 黃蜂，和蝴蝶群落都蓬勃發展。

In turn, insect-pollinated crops produce higher yields.

接下來，昆蟲授粉的作物產量更高。

Many ocean species rebound from overfishing.

本來因過度捕撈的許多 海洋物種重新復甦，

Throughout history, humans in traditionally vegetarian regions

在歷史上，傳統素食地區的人類

have evolved a genetic mutation

已經演化出一種基因突變，

that helps them more efficiently process fats from plants.

讓他們能更有效地處理 來自植物的脂肪。

So over thousands of years,

因此，經過數千年，

our bodies may evolve to make the most of our veggies.

我們的身體可能演化成 能充分利用我們的蔬菜。

Or we may lose some adaptations, like the ability to extract iron from meat.

或我們可能會失去一些適應能力， 例如從肉中提取鐵質的能力。

Of course, a wizard will not turn our world meatless.

當然，巫師不會把我們的 世界變成無肉世界。

Though many individuals are choosing to go vegetarian,

儘管有許多人選擇吃素，

globally, meat eating is still on the rise.

就全球來說，肉食仍在增加。

This trend spells trouble for our climate.

這個趨勢會給我們的氣候帶來麻煩。

Even if we suddenly stopped burning fossil fuels,

即使我們突然停止燃燒化石燃料，

business as usual food systems paired with a growing population

一切照舊的食物系統， 加上人口不斷增加，

would push global temperatures over 1.5°C by the end of the century.

會在這個世紀末將全球溫度 推升攝氏一點五度以上。

Cattle are the biggest culprit.

罪魁禍首是牛。

Beef and dairy production are responsible for over 60% of all food-based emissions,

食物相關的排放總量中有至少 60％ 和牛肉及乳製品的生產有關，

while only providing around 18% of the world's calories.

但它們提供的卡路里 僅佔全球的約 18%。

In fact, diets containing modest portions of meats like chicken

實際上，包含適當肉類 （如雞肉）份量的飲食

often produce less greenhouse gas than vegetarian diets high in dairy.

產生的溫室氣體通常少於 大量乳製品的素食飲食。

Reducing beef, cheese, and milk consumption could go a long way

少吃牛肉、乳酪，和牛奶，

對於協助實現無肉世界的 許多益處都有很大的幫助——

toward achieving many of the benefits of a meatless world—

no magic required.

不需要魔法就能辦到。