The strangest summer in recorded history - David Biello

翻译人员: Justin H 校对人员: Yanyan Hong

It’s April 10th, 1815, and in just a few moments,

现在是 4 月 10 日，1815 年， 再过一会儿，

the sun is going to disappear.

太阳即将消失，

On an island in present-day Indonesia,

在现今印度尼西亚的一个岛屿上,

Mount Tambora erupts with a boom that can be heard over 2,000 kilometers away.

坦博拉火山爆发时发出的轰鸣声 可以在两千多公里外听到。

Sulfurous plumes of steam and ash billow thousands of meters into the sky,

含硫的蒸汽和火山灰 喷涌至数千米外的高空，

forming dark storm clouds of soot and lightning.

形成由煤烟和闪电组成的黑暗风暴云。

This eruption will go down as the largest in recorded history,

此次火山喷发是有史以来最大的，

but, at this point, its impact is only just beginning.

但，在那一刻， 它的影响才刚刚开始。

Ascending high into the atmosphere,

升入大气层的高度，

Tambora’s emissions spread across the globe,

坦博拉带来的产物波及了全球，

blotting out the sun for almost an entire year.

影响了近乎一整年的日照时间。

The hazy skies and cold weather of 1816 wreak havoc on agriculture,

1816 年的阴霾和寒冷的天气 对农业造成了不可磨灭的影响，

leading to famines all across the Northern Hemisphere.

导致整个北半球的饥荒，

Nations struggle with epidemics,

各国都在与流行病做斗争，

and artists craft bleak tributes to these seemingly apocalyptic times.

艺术家们为这些看似世界末日的时代 创作了凄凉的赞歌。

This was the year without summer—

那是没有夏天的一年——

literally one of the darkest periods in human history.

可谓是人类历史上最黑暗的时期之一 ，

So why are some modern researchers looking for ways to repeat it?

那么为什么一些现代研究人员 要寻找重复它的方法呢？

Obviously, no one wants to replicate this period’s famine and despair.

显然，没有人愿意再经历 这一时期的饥荒和绝望。

But some scientists are interested in using sulfurous haze to block out the sun,

但一些科学家对使用硫磺雾霾 来遮挡阳光感兴趣，

and hopefully, slow the effects of global warming.

并期望此举 能延缓全球变暖的影响。

This is one of many proposals in the realm of geoengineering—

这是地球工程领域的众多提议之一——

a class of deliberate, large-scale interventions in Earth’s natural systems

对地球自然系统进行的 一类有意的、大规模的干预，

intended to help restrain climate change.

旨在帮助抑制气候变化。

Different geoengineering schemes intervene in different systems.

不同的地球工程方案干预不同的系统。

Any plans to cool the planet by blocking the amount of sunlight reaching the earth

任何通过阻挡到达地球的阳光量 来冷却地球的计划

would fall in the category of solar radiation management.

属于太阳辐射管理范畴。

Some of these proposals are massive in scale,

其中一些提案规模庞大，

such as suggestions to create a helpful version of volcanic plumes

例如创建有用版本的火山羽流的建议，

or build a giant sunshade in Earth’s orbit.

或在地球轨道上建造一个巨大的遮阳棚。

Others are more limited, focusing on enhancing natural cooling systems.

其他的则更为有限， 侧重于增强自然冷却系统。

For example, researchers might enlarge marine clouds

例如，研究人员可能会扩大海洋云，

or make Earth reflect more sunlight by building huge swaths of white surfaces.

或者通过建造大片的白色表面 让地球反射更多的阳光。

Many of these plans sound more than a little strange.

其中许多计划听起来有点奇怪。

But there’s reason to believe they might work,

但有理由相信它们可能有效，

not least because of natural events like the eruption of Tambora.

尤其是因为坦博拉火山喷发等自然事件。

Scientists know that volcanic eruptions have periodically cooled the climate.

科学家们知道， 火山喷发周期性地使气候变冷。

Both the Pinatubo eruption in 1991

1991 年皮纳图博火山爆发的时候，

and 1883′s blast of Krakatoa reduced global average temperatures

和 1883 年的喀拉喀托火山爆发 降低了全球平均气温，

by at least half-a-degree Celsius for up to a year.

至少降低半摄氏度长达一年。

These cooling effects are global and fast acting—

这些降温效果是全球性的， 并且作用迅速——

but they're also incredibly risky.

但它们也非常危险。

The Earth is a chaotic system where even the smallest changes

地球是一个混乱的系统， 即使是最小的变化

can create countless unpredictable ripple effects.

也可以产生无数不可预知的涟漪效应。

We know that cooling temperatures impacts precipitation,

我们知道降温会影响降水，

extreme weather, and other climate phenomena,

极端天气，以及其他气候现象，

but it’s difficult for even the most advanced computer models

但即使是最先进的计算机型号也很难

to predict how or where these consequences will occur.

去预测这些后果将如何发生 或在何处发生。

One country’s solar radiation management

一个国家的太阳辐射管理

might be another country’s unnatural disaster,

可能是另一个国家的非自然灾害，

causing extreme weather or crop failures like those following Tambora’s eruption.

造成极端天气或农作物歉收， 例如坦博拉火山喷发后的情况。

And even if these schemes did safely cool the planet,

即使这些计划确实让地球安全降温，

solar radiation management doesn’t address the greenhouse gases

太阳辐射管理没有解决温室气体问题

that are causing global warming.

导致全球暖化。

These solutions are just highly experimental band-aids

这些解决方案只是高度实验性的创可贴，

that the world would have to endure for at least a few decades

当我们致力于 切实地去除空气中的二氧化碳时，

while we work on actually removing CO2 from the air.

得以让世界再多撑几十年。

And if we pulled that band-aid off prematurely,

如果我们过早地撕掉创可贴，

global temperatures could rapidly rebound,

全球气温可能迅速回升，

causing a period of intense super warming.

导致一段时期的强烈超级变暖。

For these reasons and more solar radiation management is risky.

由于这些原因， 更多的太阳辐射管理是有风险的。

Today, researchers are running small-scale experiments,

现今，研究人员正在进行小规模实验，

such as enhancing marine clouds to protect the Great Barrier Reef

例如增强海洋云层以保护大堡礁的

from further heating and bleaching.

进一步的热化和褪色。

And most scientists agree that we should pursue ways to cut emissions

大多数科学家都认为 我们应该寻求减少排放的方法，

and remove atmospheric CO2 first and foremost.

并首先从去除大气中的二氧化碳开始。

However, there are reasons to keep studying these more aggressive approaches.

然而，有理由继续研究 这些更激进的方法。

Desperate times call for desperate measures, and in the future,

危急时刻需要孤注一掷， 而在未来，

geoengineering might be civilization’s last resort.

地球工程可能是文明的最后手段。

Furthermore, some of these plans would be shockingly easy to execute

此外，其中一些计划执行起来 其实异常的容易，

by some rogue actor with enough cash.

只需要无赖且多金的资本家 给予投资就行。

So we’ll want to be prepared if someone starts geoengineering

所以我们要做好准备， 如果有人未经政府批准

without governmental approval.

开始地球工程的计划。

But perhaps the most important reason to investigate the impacts of geoengineering

但也许调查地球工程影响的最重要原因

is that people are already making large scale interventions in the atmosphere.

是人们已经在对大气进行大规模干预。

In many ways, climate change is an unintended geoengineering project

在许多方面， 气候变化是一个无意的地球工程项目

fueled by the emissions

由几个世纪以来燃烧化石燃料

generated from centuries of burning fossil fuels.

产生的排放物所推动。

And unless we take action to curb emissions

除非我们采取行动遏制排放，

and draw CO2 out of the atmosphere soon,

并尽快从大气中排除二氧化碳，

summer may never be the same again.

不然，我们的夏天可能岌岌可危。