The strangest summer in recorded history - David Biello

427,392 views ・ 2023-05-16

TED-Ed


请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。

翻译人员: Justin H 校对人员: Yanyan Hong
00:06
It’s April 10th, 1815, and in just a few moments,
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现在是 4 月 10 日,1815 年, 再过一会儿,
00:11
the sun is going to disappear.
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太阳即将消失,
00:14
On an island in present-day Indonesia,
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在现今印度尼西亚的一个岛屿上,
00:16
Mount Tambora erupts with a boom that can be heard over 2,000 kilometers away.
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坦博拉火山爆发时发出的轰鸣声 可以在两千多公里外听到。
00:23
Sulfurous plumes of steam and ash billow thousands of meters into the sky,
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含硫的蒸汽和火山灰 喷涌至数千米外的高空,
00:29
forming dark storm clouds of soot and lightning.
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形成由煤烟和闪电组成的黑暗风暴云。
00:33
This eruption will go down as the largest in recorded history,
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此次火山喷发是有史以来最大的,
00:37
but, at this point, its impact is only just beginning.
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但,在那一刻, 它的影响才刚刚开始。
00:42
Ascending high into the atmosphere,
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升入大气层的高度,
00:44
Tambora’s emissions spread across the globe,
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坦博拉带来的产物波及了全球,
00:47
blotting out the sun for almost an entire year.
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影响了近乎一整年的日照时间。
00:52
The hazy skies and cold weather of 1816 wreak havoc on agriculture,
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1816 年的阴霾和寒冷的天气 对农业造成了不可磨灭的影响,
00:58
leading to famines all across the Northern Hemisphere.
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导致整个北半球的饥荒,
01:02
Nations struggle with epidemics,
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各国都在与流行病做斗争,
01:04
and artists craft bleak tributes to these seemingly apocalyptic times.
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艺术家们为这些看似世界末日的时代 创作了凄凉的赞歌。
01:10
This was the year without summer—
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那是没有夏天的一年——
01:13
literally one of the darkest periods in human history.
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可谓是人类历史上最黑暗的时期之一 ,
01:17
So why are some modern researchers looking for ways to repeat it?
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那么为什么一些现代研究人员 要寻找重复它的方法呢?
01:23
Obviously, no one wants to replicate this period’s famine and despair.
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显然,没有人愿意再经历 这一时期的饥荒和绝望。
01:27
But some scientists are interested in using sulfurous haze to block out the sun,
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但一些科学家对使用硫磺雾霾 来遮挡阳光感兴趣,
01:33
and hopefully, slow the effects of global warming.
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并期望此举 能延缓全球变暖的影响。
01:38
This is one of many proposals in the realm of geoengineering—
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这是地球工程领域的众多提议之一——
01:42
a class of deliberate, large-scale interventions in Earth’s natural systems
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对地球自然系统进行的 一类有意的、大规模的干预,
01:48
intended to help restrain climate change.
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旨在帮助抑制气候变化。
01:51
Different geoengineering schemes intervene in different systems.
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不同的地球工程方案干预不同的系统。
01:55
Any plans to cool the planet by blocking the amount of sunlight reaching the earth
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任何通过阻挡到达地球的阳光量 来冷却地球的计划
02:00
would fall in the category of solar radiation management.
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属于太阳辐射管理范畴。
02:04
Some of these proposals are massive in scale,
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其中一些提案规模庞大,
02:07
such as suggestions to create a helpful version of volcanic plumes
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例如创建有用版本的火山羽流的建议,
02:12
or build a giant sunshade in Earth’s orbit.
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或在地球轨道上建造一个巨大的遮阳棚。
02:17
Others are more limited, focusing on enhancing natural cooling systems.
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其他的则更为有限, 侧重于增强自然冷却系统。
02:21
For example, researchers might enlarge marine clouds
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例如,研究人员可能会扩大海洋云,
02:25
or make Earth reflect more sunlight by building huge swaths of white surfaces.
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或者通过建造大片的白色表面 让地球反射更多的阳光。
02:33
Many of these plans sound more than a little strange.
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其中许多计划听起来有点奇怪。
02:36
But there’s reason to believe they might work,
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但有理由相信它们可能有效,
02:38
not least because of natural events like the eruption of Tambora.
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尤其是因为坦博拉火山喷发等自然事件。
02:43
Scientists know that volcanic eruptions have periodically cooled the climate.
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科学家们知道, 火山喷发周期性地使气候变冷。
02:48
Both the Pinatubo eruption in 1991
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1991 年皮纳图博火山爆发的时候,
02:51
and 1883′s blast of Krakatoa reduced global average temperatures
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和 1883 年的喀拉喀托火山爆发 降低了全球平均气温,
02:57
by at least half-a-degree Celsius for up to a year.
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至少降低半摄氏度长达一年。
03:01
These cooling effects are global and fast acting—
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这些降温效果是全球性的, 并且作用迅速——
03:04
but they're also incredibly risky.
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但它们也非常危险。
03:07
The Earth is a chaotic system where even the smallest changes
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地球是一个混乱的系统, 即使是最小的变化
03:11
can create countless unpredictable ripple effects.
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也可以产生无数不可预知的涟漪效应。
03:14
We know that cooling temperatures impacts precipitation,
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我们知道降温会影响降水,
03:17
extreme weather, and other climate phenomena,
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极端天气,以及其他气候现象,
03:21
but it’s difficult for even the most advanced computer models
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但即使是最先进的计算机型号也很难
03:24
to predict how or where these consequences will occur.
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去预测这些后果将如何发生 或在何处发生。
03:28
One country’s solar radiation management
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一个国家的太阳辐射管理
03:31
might be another country’s unnatural disaster,
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可能是另一个国家的非自然灾害,
03:34
causing extreme weather or crop failures like those following Tambora’s eruption.
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造成极端天气或农作物歉收, 例如坦博拉火山喷发后的情况。
03:41
And even if these schemes did safely cool the planet,
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即使这些计划确实让地球安全降温,
03:44
solar radiation management doesn’t address the greenhouse gases
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太阳辐射管理没有解决温室气体问题
03:48
that are causing global warming.
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导致全球暖化。
03:50
These solutions are just highly experimental band-aids
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这些解决方案只是高度实验性的创可贴,
03:54
that the world would have to endure for at least a few decades
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当我们致力于 切实地去除空气中的二氧化碳时,
03:57
while we work on actually removing CO2 from the air.
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得以让世界再多撑几十年。
04:01
And if we pulled that band-aid off prematurely,
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如果我们过早地撕掉创可贴,
04:04
global temperatures could rapidly rebound,
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全球气温可能迅速回升,
04:07
causing a period of intense super warming.
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导致一段时期的强烈超级变暖。
04:12
For these reasons and more solar radiation management is risky.
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由于这些原因, 更多的太阳辐射管理是有风险的。
04:17
Today, researchers are running small-scale experiments,
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现今,研究人员正在进行小规模实验,
04:20
such as enhancing marine clouds to protect the Great Barrier Reef
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例如增强海洋云层以保护大堡礁的
04:25
from further heating and bleaching.
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进一步的热化和褪色。
04:27
And most scientists agree that we should pursue ways to cut emissions
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大多数科学家都认为 我们应该寻求减少排放的方法,
04:31
and remove atmospheric CO2 first and foremost.
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并首先从去除大气中的二氧化碳开始。
04:35
However, there are reasons to keep studying these more aggressive approaches.
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然而,有理由继续研究 这些更激进的方法。
04:39
Desperate times call for desperate measures, and in the future,
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危急时刻需要孤注一掷, 而在未来,
04:43
geoengineering might be civilization’s last resort.
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地球工程可能是文明的最后手段。
04:47
Furthermore, some of these plans would be shockingly easy to execute
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此外,其中一些计划执行起来 其实异常的容易,
04:51
by some rogue actor with enough cash.
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只需要无赖且多金的资本家 给予投资就行。
04:54
So we’ll want to be prepared if someone starts geoengineering
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所以我们要做好准备, 如果有人未经政府批准
04:58
without governmental approval.
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开始地球工程的计划。
05:00
But perhaps the most important reason to investigate the impacts of geoengineering
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但也许调查地球工程影响的最重要原因
05:05
is that people are already making large scale interventions in the atmosphere.
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是人们已经在对大气进行大规模干预。
05:10
In many ways, climate change is an unintended geoengineering project
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在许多方面, 气候变化是一个无意的地球工程项目
05:15
fueled by the emissions
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由几个世纪以来燃烧化石燃料
05:17
generated from centuries of burning fossil fuels.
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产生的排放物所推动。
05:21
And unless we take action to curb emissions
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除非我们采取行动遏制排放,
05:23
and draw CO2 out of the atmosphere soon,
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并尽快从大气中排除二氧化碳,
05:27
summer may never be the same again.
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不然,我们的夏天可能岌岌可危。
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