The “myth” of the boiling frog

翻译人员: Gia Hwang 校对人员: Carol Wang

Two frogs are minding their own business in the swamp when WHAM—

两只青蛙在沼泽地里正各忙各的， 这时“砰”地一声——

they’re kidnapped.

它俩被绑架了，

They come to in a kitchen, captives of a menacing chef.

它们被恶厨师捕获后来到了厨房。

He boils up a pot of water and lobs one of the frogs in.

他煮了一锅水， 把一只青蛙丢进锅里。

But it’s having none of this.

但它从没经历过这些，

The second its toes hit the scalding water it jumps right out the window.

它脚趾碰到滚烫水的那一刻, 它直接跳出了窗外。

The chef refills the pot, but this time he doesn’t turn on the heat.

厨师又把锅装满水， 但这次他没有开火。

He plops the second frog in, and this frog’s okay with that.

他把第二只青蛙丢进锅里， 这只青蛙没啥反应。

The chef turns the heat on, very low, and the temperature of water slowly rises.

厨师打开小火，水温慢慢升高，

So slowly that the frog doesn’t notice.

慢到青蛙都没注意到。

In fact, it basks in the balmy water.

其实，它沐浴在温暖的水中。

Only when the surface begins to bubble does the frog realize: it’s toast.

只有当水面开始冒泡时， 青蛙才意识到：它已熟了。

What’s funny about this parable is that it’s not scientifically true... for frogs.

这个寓言的有趣之处在于， 科学角度看关于青蛙的说法不正确。

In reality, a frog will detect slowly heating water and leap to safety.

其实青蛙能察觉慢慢加热的水， 然后跳到安全的地方。

Humans, on the other hand, are a different story.

但另一方面，人类的情况就不同了。

We’re perfectly happy to sit in the pot and slowly turn up the heat,

我们很享受坐在锅里， 慢慢地把火调大，

all the while insisting it isn’t our hand on the dial,

始终坚持说不是我们的手在控温、

arguing about whether we can trust thermometers,

争论温度计是否可信并质疑——

and questioning— even if they’re right, does it matter?

就算温度计正确，有关系吗?

It does.

确实有关系。

Since 1850, global average temperatures have risen by 1 degree Celsius.

自 1850 年以来，全球 平均气温上升了 1 ℃。

That may not sound like a lot, but it is.

听起来上升不多，但其实很多，

Why? 1 degree is an average.

为什么？因为 1 ℃ 是平均值，

Many places have already gotten much warmer than that.

许多地方的气温已经比这高得多。

Some places in the Arctic have already warmed 4 degrees.

北极一些地方已经升温 4 ℃。

If global average temperatures increase 1 more degree,

如果全球平均气温再升 1 ℃，

the coldest nights in the Arctic might get 10 degrees warmer.

北极最冷寒夜可能温度会上升10 ℃，

The warmest days in Mumbai might get 5 degrees hotter.

孟买最热的时候可能还要热 5 ℃。

So how did we get here?

那么我们是怎么走到这一步的呢？

Almost everything that makes modern life possible relies on fossil fuels:

几乎所有使现代生活成为可能的东西 都依赖于化石燃料：

coal, oil, and gas full of carbon from ancient organic matter.

煤、石油和天然气都充满 来自远古有机物的碳。

When we burn fossil fuels,

当我们燃烧化石燃料时，

we release carbon dioxide that builds up in our atmosphere,

释放出二氧化碳， 它在大气层中累积，

where it remains for hundreds or even thousands of years,

并停留数百年、甚至数千年。

letting heat in, but not out.

让热量进入，而不会排出热量。

The heat comes from sunlight, which passes through the atmosphere to Earth,

来自阳光的热量 穿过大气层到达地球，

where it gets absorbed and warms everything up.

热量被吸收，使一切变暖。

Warm objects emit infrared radiation, which should pass back out into space,

温度较高的物体会发出红外辐射， 这种辐射本该返回太空，

because most atmospheric gases don’t absorb it.

因为多数大气气体不会吸收它。

But greenhouse gases— carbon dioxide and methane—

但温室气体——二氧化碳和甲烷——

do absorb infrared wavelengths.

确实会吸收红外线波长。

So when we add more of those gases to the atmosphere,

所以，当我们向大气中 释放更多这种气体时，

less heat makes it back out to space, and our planet warms up.

返回太空的热量减少， 地球就会变暖。

If we keep emitting greenhouse gases at our current pace,

如果继续以目前速度排放温室气体，

scientists predict temperatures will rise 4 degrees

科学家预测，到2100年，

与工业化前的水平相比， 全球气温将上升 4 ℃ 。

from their pre-industrial levels by 2100.

They’ve identified 1.5 degrees of warming—

他们已确定，气温 上升 1.5 ℃ 就到临界值，

global averages half a degree warmer than today’s—

即全球平均气温比现在高 0.5 ℃，

as a threshold beyond which the negative impacts of climate change

一旦超过这个临界值，

will become increasingly severe.

气候变化的负面影响将变得更严重。

To keep from crossing that threshold,

为了避免超过这个门限值，

we need to get our greenhouse gas emissions down to zero

我们需要

尽快将温室气体排放降至零。

as fast as possible.

Or rather, we have to get emissions down to what's called net zero,

或者确切地说，我们必须 将排放量降至所说的净零，

meaning we may still be putting some greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,

即我们仍可在向大气中 排放一些温室气体，

but we take out as much as we put in.

但我们吸收和排放一样多。

This doesn’t mean we can just keep emitting and sequester all that carbon—

这并不意味着可以继续 排放和封存所有的碳——

we couldn’t keep up with our emissions through natural methods,

我们无法通过自然封存方法 跟上我们的碳排放，

and technological solutions would be prohibitively expensive

而且技术解决方案会非常昂贵，

and require huge amounts of permanent storage.

还需要大量的永久储存。

Instead, while we switch from coal, oil, and natural gas

相反，当我们从煤炭、石油和天然气

to clean energy and fuels, which will take time,

转向清洁能源和燃料时—— 这需要时间——

we can mitigate the damage by removing carbon from the atmosphere.

可以通过大气去碳来减轻损害。

Jumping out of the proverbial pot isn’t an option,

跳出热锅不是我们的选择，

but we can do something the frogs can’t:

但我们可以做一些青蛙做不到的事：

reach over, and turn down the heat.

伸出手来，把火关小。