The “myth” of the boiling frog

譯者: 【1002熊詩芸】 Jenny 審譯者: Yi-Ping Cho (Marssi)

Two frogs are minding their own business in the swamp when WHAM—

兩隻青蛙正在沼澤地裡各忙各的 這時「砰」地一聲，牠們被綁架了

they’re kidnapped.

They come to in a kitchen, captives of a menacing chef.

牠們被抓來廚房 成了惡廚的俘虜

He boils up a pot of water and lobs one of the frogs in.

惡廚煮了一鍋熱水 把一隻青蛙丟進鍋裡

But it’s having none of this.

但青蛙沒上當

The second its toes hit the scalding water it jumps right out the window.

牠的腳趾一碰到滾燙的水 牠就直接跳出窗外了

The chef refills the pot, but this time he doesn’t turn on the heat.

廚師又把鍋裝滿水 但這次他沒有開火

He plops the second frog in, and this frog’s okay with that.

他把第二隻青蛙丟進鍋裡 這隻青蛙沒啥反應

The chef turns the heat on, very low, and the temperature of water slowly rises.

廚師打開小火，慢慢增加水溫

So slowly that the frog doesn’t notice.

慢到青蛙都沒注意到

In fact, it basks in the balmy water.

事實上，牠正沐浴在溫暖的水中

Only when the surface begins to bubble does the frog realize: it’s toast.

一直到當水面開始冒泡時 青蛙才意識到：牠已熟了

What’s funny about this parable is that it’s not scientifically true... for frogs.

這則寓言有趣的是，對青蛙來說 以科學的角度來看是不正確的

In reality, a frog will detect slowly heating water and leap to safety.

實際上，青蛙能察覺慢慢加熱的水 然後跳到安全的地方

Humans, on the other hand, are a different story.

但人類可就不是這麼回事了

We’re perfectly happy to sit in the pot and slowly turn up the heat,

我們很享受坐在鍋裡 慢慢地把火調大

all the while insisting it isn’t our hand on the dial,

始終堅持說不是我們的手在控溫

arguing about whether we can trust thermometers,

爭論我們是否能相信溫度計

and questioning— even if they’re right, does it matter?

然後質疑就算溫度計正確，有關係嗎？

It does.

確實有關係

Since 1850, global average temperatures have risen by 1 degree Celsius.

從 1850 年以來 全球平均氣溫上升了 1 ℃

That may not sound like a lot, but it is.

聽起來上升不多，但其實很多

Why? 1 degree is an average.

為什麼？因為 1 ℃ 是平均值

Many places have already gotten much warmer than that.

很多地方上升的溫度 早已遠遠高出這個數字

Some places in the Arctic have already warmed 4 degrees.

北極一些地方已經升溫 4 ℃

If global average temperatures increase 1 more degree,

如果全球平均氣溫再上升 1 ℃

the coldest nights in the Arctic might get 10 degrees warmer.

北極最冷的夜晚可能會再升溫 10 ℃

The warmest days in Mumbai might get 5 degrees hotter.

孟買最熱的日子可能會再升溫 5 ℃

So how did we get here?

那麼我們怎麼會落到這步田地？

Almost everything that makes modern life possible relies on fossil fuels:

幾乎所有成就現代化的一切 都仰賴化石燃料：煤炭、石油和天然氣

coal, oil, and gas full of carbon from ancient organic matter.

這些都富含來自遠古有機物的碳

When we burn fossil fuels,

當我們燃燒化石燃料時

we release carbon dioxide that builds up in our atmosphere,

我們釋放出的二氧化碳 會在大氣層中累積

where it remains for hundreds or even thousands of years,

並停留數百年，甚至數千年

letting heat in, but not out.

讓熱只進不出

The heat comes from sunlight, which passes through the atmosphere to Earth,

來自陽光的熱 通過大氣層到達地球

where it gets absorbed and warms everything up.

被吸收後，使萬物變暖

Warm objects emit infrared radiation, which should pass back out into space,

溫暖的物體會輻射紅外線 這些輻射本應返回太空

because most atmospheric gases don’t absorb it.

因為大多數的大氣氣體不會吸收它

But greenhouse gases— carbon dioxide and methane—

但是溫室氣體二氧化碳和甲烷

do absorb infrared wavelengths.

會吸收紅外線波長

So when we add more of those gases to the atmosphere,

因此，當我們向大氣中 釋放更多這種氣體時

less heat makes it back out to space, and our planet warms up.

返回太空的熱減少 地球就會被暖化

If we keep emitting greenhouse gases at our current pace,

如果我們繼續 以目前的速度排放溫室氣體

scientists predict temperatures will rise 4 degrees

科學家預測到 2100 年 全球氣溫將上升 4 ℃

from their pre-industrial levels by 2100.

這是以工業革命前的溫度為比較基準

They’ve identified 1.5 degrees of warming—

科學家已確認氣溫上升 1.5 ℃

global averages half a degree warmer than today’s—

也就是比現在全球平均氣溫 上升 0.5 ℃

as a threshold beyond which the negative impacts of climate change

將視為氣候變遷對地球產生負面影響

will become increasingly severe.

變得越來越嚴重的門檻值

To keep from crossing that threshold,

為了避免越過這個門檻值

we need to get our greenhouse gas emissions down to zero

我們需要將溫室氣體排放量降至零

as fast as possible.

而且越快越好

Or rather, we have to get emissions down to what's called net zero,

或者更確切地說，我們必須 將排放量降至所謂的淨零

meaning we may still be putting some greenhouse gases into the atmosphere,

意即我們仍可能 繼續向大氣層排放溫室氣體

but we take out as much as we put in.

但我們移除的和排放的一樣多

This doesn’t mean we can just keep emitting and sequester all that carbon—

這並不是指我們可以繼續 排放和封存所有的碳

we couldn’t keep up with our emissions through natural methods,

實際上靠大自然減碳 跟不上我們排碳的速度

and technological solutions would be prohibitively expensive

而且技術解決方案 昂貴地令人望之卻步

and require huge amounts of permanent storage.

而且需要大量的永久儲存空間

Instead, while we switch from coal, oil, and natural gas

然而，我們從煤炭、石油和天然氣

to clean energy and fuels, which will take time,

轉向清潔能源和燃料需要時間

we can mitigate the damage by removing carbon from the atmosphere.

我們可以藉由從大氣中移除碳 來減輕對地球的損害

Jumping out of the proverbial pot isn’t an option,

跳出熱鍋或許不是一個選項

but we can do something the frogs can’t:

但我們可以做青蛙做不到的事：

reach over, and turn down the heat.

伸手過去，把火關小