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譯者: Shin-Yuan Tzou
審譯者: Sean Chuang
00:15
Amongst all the troubling deficits we struggle with today --
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在所有今日世人仍然必需去努力實現的種種令人憂心的缺點之中---
00:18
we think of financial and economic primarily --
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我們認為金融和經濟是最根本主要的--
00:21
the ones that concern me most
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但是我最關心的是
00:23
is the deficit of political dialogue --
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是政治上對話的不足--
00:25
our ability to address modern conflicts
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我們有能力應付現今的衝突
00:27
as they are,
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實際上就是,
00:29
to go to the source of what they're all about
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找到事情發生的原因
00:32
and to understand the key players
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了解關鍵人物
00:34
and to deal with them.
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再和他們打交道。
00:36
We who are diplomats,
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這就是我們:這些外交官,
00:38
we are trained to deal with conflicts between states and issues between states.
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我們受過訓練以應付國家之間的衝突及問題
00:41
And I can tell you, our agenda is full.
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我可以告訴你們,我們的工作滿檔。
00:44
There is trade, there is disarmament,
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工作內容有貿易,有裁減軍備,
00:46
there is cross-border relations.
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有跨界關係。
00:49
But the picture is changing,
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但是情勢一直在變,
00:51
and we are seeing that there are new key players
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我們看見有新的關鍵人物
00:54
coming onto the scene.
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一直跟著出現
00:56
We loosely call them "groups."
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我們概括稱之為“集團”
00:59
They may represent social, religious,
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他們可能是社會、宗教的代表
01:02
political, economic, military realities.
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政治、經濟、軍事實相
01:05
And we struggle with how to deal with them.
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我們為了如何應付他們而奮鬥
01:07
The rules of engagement:
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交戰規則
01:09
how to talk, when to talk,
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怎麼交談,什麼時候交談
01:11
and how to deal with them.
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以及如何和他們打交道
01:14
Let me show you a slide here
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容我在此放個幻燈片
01:16
which illustrates the character of conflicts
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可以說明衝突的性質
01:18
since 1946 until today.
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從1946年起一直到今天
01:20
You see the green
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就是你看見的綠色部份
01:22
is a traditional interstate conflict,
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是傳統的國家之間的衝突
01:25
the ones we used to read about.
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也是我們習慣看到的
01:28
The red is modern conflict,
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紅色部份是現今的衝突
01:30
conflicts within states.
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國家內部的衝突
01:33
These are quite different,
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兩者是完全不同的
01:35
and they are outside the grasp
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連現今的外交
01:38
of modern diplomacy.
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都無法掌握
01:41
And the core of these key actors
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這些關鍵參與者的核心
01:43
are groups
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就是集團
01:45
who represent different interests
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他們代表著國家內部
01:47
inside countries.
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不同的利益
01:49
And the way they deal with their conflicts rapidly spreads to other countries.
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他們處理衝突的方式迅速蔓延到其他國家
01:52
So in a way, it is everybody's business.
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所以,在某種程度上而言,這是攸關眾人之事
01:56
Another acknowledgment we've seen during these years,
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另一件我們這幾年所見印證的事
01:58
recent years,
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近幾年
02:00
is that very few
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就是極少數的
02:02
of these domestic interstate, intrastate conflicts
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國內的州際之間、州內的衝突
02:06
can be solved militarily.
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可以用軍事來解決
02:08
They may have to be dealt with with military means,
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他們處理時可能會涉及軍事
02:10
but they cannot be solved by military means.
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但是不能用軍事手段來解決
02:13
They need political solutions.
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他們需要用到政治解決方案
02:15
And we, therefore, have a problem,
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而且我們,有個問題
02:17
because they escape traditional diplomacy.
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因為他們脫離了傳統外交
02:20
And we have among states
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所以許多國家
02:22
a reluctance in dealing with them.
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都不願和他們打交道
02:24
Plus, during the last decade,
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再加上,過去的10年間
02:26
we've been in the mode
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我們一直處於這種模式
02:28
where dealing with groups
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就是和集團打交道
02:30
was conceptually and politically dangerous.
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在觀念上及政治上都極其危險
02:33
After 9/11,
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911之後
02:35
either you were with us or against us.
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非敵即友
02:37
It was black or white.
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非黑即白
02:39
And groups are very often
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小集團時而有之
02:41
immediately label terrorists.
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很快地就被貼上恐怖份子的標籤
02:43
And who would talk to terrorists?
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誰要和恐怖份子談話?
02:46
The West, as I would see it,
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西方,就像我看到的
02:48
comes out of that decade weakened,
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擺脫了虛弱的十年
02:50
because we didn't understand the group.
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因為我們對集團不了解
02:53
So we've spent more time
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所以我們花了更多的時間
02:55
on focusing on why we should not talk to others
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在為什麼我們不應該和別人談話上
02:58
than finding out how we talk to others.
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比找出我們如何和別人交談還多
03:00
Now I'm not naive.
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現在我不是白癡
03:03
You cannot talk to everybody all the time.
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你不能一直在和別人交談
03:05
And there are times you should walk.
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有時候你該站起來走出去
03:08
And sometimes military intervention is necessary.
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所以有時候軍事干預是必要的
03:10
I happen to believe that Libya was necessary
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我碰巧認為利比亞是必要的
03:13
and that military intervention in Afghanistan was also necessary.
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在阿富汗的軍事干預也是必要的
03:16
And my country relies on its security
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我的國家重視安全感
03:19
through military alliance, that's clear.
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透過軍事聯盟,這很明顯
03:22
But still we have a large deficit
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但是我們還是有一個很大的落差
03:25
in dealing with and understanding modern conflict.
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在處理和了解現今的衝突上
03:27
Let us turn to Afghanistan.
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讓我們再來談談阿富汗
03:30
10 years after that military intervention,
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在軍事介入的10年之後
03:32
that country is far from secure.
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那個國家已很不安全了
03:34
The situation, to be honest, is very serious.
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這種情況,老實說,非常嚴重
03:37
Now again, the military is necessary,
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所以現在再說一次,軍事是必要的
03:40
but the military is no problem-solver.
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但是軍事不是用來解決問題的
03:43
When I first came to Afghanistan in 2005 as a foreign minister,
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當我於2005年以外交部長的身份第一次到阿富汗時
03:46
I met the commander of ISAF,
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我與駐阿富汗國際安全援助部隊的指揮官碰面
03:48
the international troops.
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是個國際部隊
03:50
And he told me that, "This can be won militarily, minister.
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他告訴我:這是一支勝算在握的軍隊,部長
03:53
We just have to persevere."
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我們只需堅持不懈。”
03:56
Now four COM ISAF's later,
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現在換了四位國際救援部隊指揮官之後
03:58
we hear a different message:
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我們又聽到了不同的訊息
04:00
"This cannot be won militarily.
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這不是穩操勝算的軍隊
04:02
We need military presence,
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我們需要軍事存在
04:04
but we need to move to politics.
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但是我們必需移向政治
04:06
We can only solve this through a political solution.
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我們只能透過政治來解決
04:09
And it is not us who will solve it;
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而且不是我們來解決
04:12
Afghans have to solve it."
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必需阿富汗自己來解決
04:14
But then they need a different political process
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但到那時候他們需要的是個不一樣的政治過程
04:16
than the one they were given in 2001, 2002.
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而不是他們在2001年及2002年所得到的
04:20
They need an inclusive process
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他們需要的是一種包容性的進程
04:23
where the real fabric of this very complicated society
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在那裏,這個相當複雜社會的實際結構
04:26
can deal with their issues.
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可以處理他們的問題
04:28
Everybody seems to agree with that.
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每個人似乎都同意
04:30
It was very controversial to say three, four, five years ago.
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3,4,5年前談起來還頗有爭議
04:33
Now everybody agrees.
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現在大家都同意了
04:35
But now, as we prepare to talk,
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但是現在,我們準備談談的是
04:38
we understand how little we know.
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我們發現我們所知的不多
04:40
Because we didn't talk.
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因為我們不跟人交談
04:42
We didn't grasp what was going on.
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我們不了解到底是怎麼回事
04:45
The International Committee of the Red Cross, the ICRC,
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國際紅十字會
04:48
is talking to everyone,
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和每個人交談
04:50
and it is doing so because it is neutral.
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是因為立場中立所以這樣做
04:53
And that's one reason why
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這是其中一個原因為什麼
04:55
that organization probably
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那個機構可能
04:57
is the best informed key player
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是消息了解現今衝突
04:59
to understand modern conflict --
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消息最靈通的關鍵人物--
05:01
because they talk.
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因為他們與人交談
05:03
My point is that you don't have to be neutral to talk.
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我的重點是你不是一定要立場中立才與人交談
05:07
And you don't have to agree
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你也不必贊成對方的觀點
05:09
when you sit down with the other side.
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當你和對方一起坐下來時。
05:11
And you can always walk.
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你可以一直進行談話
05:14
But if you don't talk,
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但是如果你不與人交談
05:16
you can't engage the other side.
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你就不能加入對方
05:18
And the other side which you're going to engage
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而你想加入的對方
05:20
is the one with whom you profoundly disagree.
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是你極度唱反調的一方
05:23
Prime Minister Rabin said when he engaged the Oslo process,
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拉賓總理說當他參與奧斯陸和平進程時,
05:26
"You don't make peace with your friends,
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“你不是和你朋友和平相處,
05:28
you make peace with your enemies."
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而是和敵人同床共枕
05:30
It's hard, but it is necessary.
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很難,但是必要
05:33
Let me go one step further.
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容我再進一步說
05:35
This is Tahrir Square.
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這是塔里爾廣場
05:37
There's a revolution going on.
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有場革命將發生
05:39
The Arab Spring is heading into fall
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阿拉伯之春的熱火
05:41
and is moving into winter.
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持續到秋天冬天
05:43
It will last for a long, long time.
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會持續很長很長的一段時間
05:46
And who knows what it will be called in the end.
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有誰知道它最終將被稱為什麼
05:49
That's not the point.
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這不是重點
05:51
The point is that we are probably seeing,
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重點是我們可能看到
05:54
for the first time in the history of the Arab world,
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阿拉伯世界歷史上的第一次
05:56
a revolution bottom-up --
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一場自下而上的革命
05:58
people's revolution.
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人民的革命
06:00
Social groups are taking to the streets.
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社會集團走上街頭
06:03
And we find out in the West
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我們發現在西方
06:05
that we know very little about what's happening.
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我們對於發生的事所知甚少
06:08
Because we never talk to the people in these countries.
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因為我們從不和這些國家的人民交談
06:12
Most governments followed
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大部份政府遵守
06:14
the dictate of the authoritarian leaders
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獨裁主義領導人的命令規定
06:16
to stay away from these different groups,
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就是遠離這些各種不同的集團
06:18
because they were terrorists.
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因為他們曾是恐怖份子
06:22
So now that they are emerging in the street
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所以現在他們出現在街頭
06:24
and we salute the democratic revolution,
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我們讚揚民主革命
06:27
we find out how little we know.
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我們發現我們所知竟如此之少
06:29
Right now, the discussion goes,
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就是現在,討論下去
06:31
"Should we talk to the Muslim Brotherhood?
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我們是不是應該和穆斯林弟兄會交談?
06:34
Should we talk to Hamas?
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我們是不是應該和哈瑪斯交談?
06:36
If we talk to them, we may legitimize them."
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如果我們和他們交談,就是承認他們合法
06:39
I think that is wrong.
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我覺得這是不對的
06:41
If you talk in the right way, you make it very clear
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如果用正確的方式交談,你非常明白
06:43
that talking is not agreeing.
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這樣的交談是不被同意的
06:46
And how can we tell the Muslim Brotherhood,
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而且我們要怎樣才能告訴穆斯林弟兄會?
06:48
as we should,
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就像我們應該告訴他們一樣
06:50
that they must respect minority rights,
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他們必需尊重少數人的權利
06:54
if we don't accept majority rights?
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如果我們不接受多數人的權利?
06:57
Because they may turn out to be a majority.
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因為他們可能變成多數人
07:00
How can we escape [having] a double-standard,
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我們怎能避免雙重標準?
07:03
if we at the same time preach democracy
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如果我們同時宣揚民主
07:06
and at the same time
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然而
07:08
don't want to deal with the groups that are representative?
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又不想和具有代表性的集團打交道
07:10
How will we ever be interlocutors?
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我們如何永遠做個談話對象?
07:13
Now my diplomats are instructed
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所以現在教我的外交官被教導
07:15
to talk to all these groups.
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要和所有這樣的集團交談
07:17
But talking can be done in different ways.
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但是談話有各種不同的方式
07:20
We make a distinction between talking from a diplomatic level
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我們從外交層面的談話
07:23
and talking at the political level.
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以及政治層面的談話做個區分
07:26
Now talking can be accompanied with aid or not with aid.
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現在談話分成有援助也有沒有援助的
07:29
Talking can be accompanied with inclusion or not inclusion.
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也分成有內容的也有沒有內容的
07:32
There's a big array
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有一大批
07:34
of the ways of dealing with this.
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處理這些問題的方式
07:36
So if we refuse
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所以如果我們拒絕
07:38
to talk to these new groups
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與這些今後幾年將主導新聞
07:41
that are going to be dominating the news in years to come,
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的新集團談話
07:44
we will further radicalization,
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我們將更激進化
07:46
I believe.
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我相信
07:48
We will make the road from violent activities into politics
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我們將使這條路從暴力活動進入政治活動
07:51
harder to travel.
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更難以行進
07:53
And if we cannot demonstrate to these groups
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如果我們無法向這些集團證明
07:56
that if you move towards democracy,
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如果你向民主妥協
07:58
if you move towards taking part
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如果你走向參與
08:01
in civilized and normal standards among states,
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國家之間的文明及正常標準
08:04
there are some rewards on the other side.
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對方會有回報的
08:07
The paradox here
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這裏有個自相矛盾的議論
08:09
is that the last decade probably was a lost decade
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就是最後的這十年完全沒有進展
08:12
for making progress on this.
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是個失去的十年
08:14
And the paradox is that the decade before the last decade was so promising --
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而自相矛盾的議論就是十年前到二十年前中間這段時間相當有前景
08:18
and for one reason primarily.
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主要的原因之一
08:21
And the reason is what happened in South Africa:
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原因就是在南非發生的事
08:23
Nelson Mandela.
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尼爾遜 曼德拉
08:25
When Mandela came out of prison
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當曼德拉在27年的牢獄之災之後
08:27
after 27 years of captivity,
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從牢裏被放出來的時候
08:30
if he had told his people,
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如果他告訴國民
08:32
"It's time to take up the arms,
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“拿起武器的時候到了,
08:34
it's time to fight,"
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作戰的時候到了,”
08:36
he would have been followed.
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就會有人聽他的話
08:38
And I think the international community
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而且我想國際社會
08:40
would have said, "Fair enough.
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會說,“很好。
08:42
It's their right to fight."
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他們有權開戰
08:44
Now as you know, Mandela didn't do that.
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現在如你所知,曼德拉並未如此做
08:47
In his memoirs, "Long Road to Freedom,"
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在他的回憶錄“漫漫自由路”中
08:50
he wrote that he survived
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他寫道他活在
08:52
during those years of captivity
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牢獄之中的這些年
08:55
because he always decided to look upon his oppressor
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因為他總是決定將壓迫他的人
08:58
as also being a human being,
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也看做是個人
09:01
also being a human being.
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也視為一個人
09:04
So he engaged a political process of dialogue,
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所以他參與了一個政治對話進程
09:09
not as a strategy of the weak,
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不是弱者的戰略
09:12
but as a strategy of the strong.
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而是強者的戰略
09:15
And he engaged talking profoundly
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而且他從事深入交談
09:18
by settling some of the most tricky issues
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透過解決一些最棘手的問題
09:20
through a truth and reconciliation process
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憑藉著真相及和解的進程
09:23
where people came and talked.
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人們來到這裏而且交談著
09:25
Now South African friends will know
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現在南非的朋友會知道
09:27
that was very painful.
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那很痛苦
09:29
So what can we learn from all of this?
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所以我們從這一切中學到了什麼?
09:32
Dialogue is not easy --
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對話並不簡單
09:34
not between individuals, not between groups, not between governments --
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不管於人與人之間,集團與集團之間,政府與政府之間
09:37
but it is very necessary.
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它都是非常必要的
09:40
If we're going to deal with political conflict-solving of conflicts,
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如果我們要解決政治上的衝突
09:44
if we're going to understand these new groups
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如果我們要了解這些新團體
09:47
which are coming from bottom-up,
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這些事都是從下至上、從細節到總體、從個別到全貌而來的
09:50
supported by technology, which is available to all,
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有科技資助,每個人都會知道
09:53
we diplomats cannot be sitting back in the banquets
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我們做外交官的總不能在宴會時坐在後方
09:56
believing that we are doing interstate relations.
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然後就相信我們正在做國際關係
09:59
We have to connect
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我們必需拉攏
10:01
with these profound changes.
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這些深刻改變的關係
10:03
And what is dialogue really about?
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而對話的真意為何?
10:05
When I enter into dialogue,
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當我和他人交談時
10:07
I really hope that the other side
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我真誠的希望對方
10:09
would pick up my points of view,
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能抓到我的觀點
10:11
that I would impress upon them
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我就會讓他們留下深刻的印象
10:13
my opinions and my values.
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我的意見和我的價值觀
10:15
I cannot do that
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但是我不能做這樣的事
10:17
unless I send the signals that I will be open
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除非我示意我會公開地表示
10:19
to listen to the other side's signals.
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我一直都會注意你的暗示
10:22
We need a lot more training on how to do that
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我們需要更多如何做到這一點的訓練
10:25
and a lot more practice
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以及更多的練習
10:27
on how that can take problem-solving forward.
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在如何將解決問題推展開來
10:30
We know from our personal experiences
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我們從自己體驗中知道
10:32
that it's easy sometimes
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它有時候很容易
10:34
just to walk,
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就只是走出去
10:36
and sometimes you may need to fight.
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有時候卻需要開戰
10:39
And I wouldn't say that is the wrong thing in all circumstances.
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我不會說在所有情況下那都是件錯事
10:42
Sometimes you have to.
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因為有時候你必需這樣做
10:44
But that strategy seldom takes you very far.
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但那策略不會花你太多時間
10:47
The alternative is a strategy
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換個方式也是
10:49
of engagement and principled dialogue.
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作戰和有原則對話的策略
10:51
And I believe we need to strengthen this approach
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而且我相信我們必需鞏固這個方法
10:54
in modern diplomacy,
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在現今的外交上
10:56
not only between states,
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不只是國與國之間
10:58
but also within states.
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也是國家內部間
11:00
We are seeing some new signs.
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我們看見一些新的跡象
11:02
We could never have done
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我們永遠無法完成
11:04
the convention against anti-personnel landmines
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反對殺傷性地雷的協定
11:06
and the convention that is banning cluster munitions
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以及禁止大規模軍火彈藥的協定
11:10
unless we had done diplomacy differently,
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除非我們完成了不同的外交
11:13
by engaging with civil society.
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透過與民間社會銜接
11:15
All of a sudden,
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忽然間
11:17
NGOs were not only standing in the streets, crying their slogans,
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非政府組織不是只站在街頭,為他們的口號哭泣,
11:20
but they were taking [them] into the negotiations,
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而且還將它們帶入協商中
11:23
partly because they represented the victims of these weapons.
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部份因為他們是這些武器犧牲者的代表
11:27
And they brought their knowledge.
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而且還帶來了他們的知識
11:29
And there was an interaction
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在外交和從下而上的力量之間
11:31
between diplomacy and the power coming bottom-up.
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互相影響
11:34
This is perhaps a first element
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這可能是改變的
11:36
of a change.
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第一個因素
11:38
In the future, I believe,
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未來,我相信
11:40
we should draw examples from these different illustrations,
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我們應該從這些不同的實例中找出範例
11:43
not to have diplomacy
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但不包括外交
11:45
which is disconnected from people and civil society.
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因為外交脫離了人民及民間社會
11:48
And we have to go also
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我們也必需
11:51
beyond traditional diplomacy
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超越傳統外交
11:53
to the survival issue of our times,
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來到我們這個時代的生存問題
11:55
climate change.
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趨勢的改變
11:57
How are we going to solve climate change through negotiations,
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我們如何透過談判來解決趨勢的改變?
12:00
unless we are able to make civil society and people,
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除非我們能使民間社會及人民
12:03
not part of the problem, but part of the solution?
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不是問題的一部份,而是解決方案的一部份。
12:06
It is going to demand an inclusive process of diplomacy
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這就是要求一個外交的包括性的進程
12:09
very different from the one we are practicing today
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與今日實行的大不相同
12:12
as we are heading to new rounds of difficult climate negotiations,
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因為我們正朝著困難趨勢談判的新一輪邁進
12:15
but when we move toward something
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但是當我們接近某件事情的時候
12:17
which has to be much more
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它就應該更加
12:19
along a broad mobilization.
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順著廣泛的調動
12:21
It's crucial to understand, I believe,
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了解這一點很重要,我相信
12:24
because of technology and because of globalization,
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因為科技也因為全球化
12:26
societies from bottom-up.
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從下而上的社會
12:28
We as diplomats
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我們身為外交家
12:30
need to know the social capital
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需要了解共同社會的
12:32
of communities.
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社會資本
12:34
What is it that makes people trust each other,
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是什麼使得人們互相信任彼此
12:37
not only between states,
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不只是國與國之間
12:39
but also within states?
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也是國家內部
12:41
What is the legitimacy of diplomacy,
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什麼是外交的合法性?
12:44
of the the solution we devise as diplomats
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什麼是我們身為外交官所制定的解決方案的合法性?
12:47
if they cannot be reflected and understood
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如果合法性不能也透過社會上更廣泛的力量
12:50
by also these broader forces of societies
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來反省及了解
12:53
that we now very loosely call groups?
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我們現在又如何能概括的稱之為團體?
12:58
The good thing is that we are not powerless.
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好事是我們並非無能為力
13:00
We have never had
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而是我們從來沒有
13:02
as many means of communication,
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許多溝通的方法
13:04
means of being connected, means of reaching out,
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連結的方法,求助的方法
13:07
means of including.
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包括各種方法
13:09
The diplomatic toolbox
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外交工具箱
13:11
is actually full of different tools we can use
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實際上有很多我們可以使用的各種不同的工具
13:14
to strengthen our communication.
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來強化我們彼此間的溝通
13:16
But the problem is that we are coming out of a decade
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但問題是未來的十年裏
13:19
where we had a fear of touching it.
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很怕用到它
13:21
Now, I hope, in the coming years,
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現在,我希望,在來年
13:24
that we are able to demonstrate through some concrete examples
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我們能夠透過一些具體的範例來證明
13:27
that fear is receding
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恐懼消退
13:30
and that we can take courage
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我們可以
13:32
from that alliance
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從聯盟中
13:34
with civil society
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和不同國家中的
13:36
in different countries
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公民社會拿出勇氣
13:38
to support their problem-solving,
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去支持他們解決
13:40
among the Afghans,
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阿富汗人之間
13:42
inside the Palestinian population,
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巴勒斯坦人口之內
13:45
between the peoples of Palestine and Israel.
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在巴勒斯坦和以色列人民之間的問題
13:47
And as we try to understand this broad movement
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而隨著我們試著了解這廣泛的調動時
13:50
across the Arab world,
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只要跨越阿拉伯世界
13:52
we are not powerless.
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我們就不是毫無力量
13:54
We need to improve the necessary skills,
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我們必需改進必要的技能
13:56
and we need the courage to use them.
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我們需要勇氣來使用他們
13:58
In my country,
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在我的國家裏
14:00
I have seen how the council of Islamist groups
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我看到伊斯蘭集團的協調會
14:05
and Christian groups
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及基督教集團
14:07
came together, not as a government initiative,
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是怎麼一起來的,不是政府提倡的
14:10
but they came together on their own initiative
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而是出於自願的一起來
14:12
to establish contact and dialogue
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來建立接觸及對話
14:14
in times where things were pretty low-key tension.
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在事情低調、不緊繃的時機下
14:18
And when tension increased,
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當張力增加
14:20
they already had that dialogue,
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他們已經交談過了
14:23
and that was a strength to deal with different issues.
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那是一種處理不同問題的力量
14:26
Our modern Western societies
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我們現今西方社會
14:28
are more complex than before,
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比以前更複雜
14:30
in this time of migration.
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在這個遷移的時代
14:32
How are we going to settle and build a bigger "We"
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我們如何解決且建立一個更大的“我們”
14:35
to deal with our issues
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來處理我們的問題
14:37
if we don't improve our skills of communication?
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如果不改善我們的溝通技巧?
14:39
So there are many reasons,
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所以有許多原因
14:41
and for all of these reasons,
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而且為了這些原因
14:43
this is time and this is why we must talk.
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是我們為何一定要交談的時機到了 ,也是理由
14:46
Thank you for your attention.
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謝謝來參加
14:48
(Applause)
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