Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive | Stephen Petranek

翻译人员: Gu Yu 校对人员: Gabriella Hu

Strap yourselves in,

大家做好准备

we're going to Mars.

我们要去火星。

Not just a few astronauts --

不仅仅是一些宇航员

thousands of people are going to colonize Mars.

成千上万的人 准备殖民火星。

And I am telling you that they're going to do this soon.

相信我，这将发生在不久的将来。

Some of you will end up working on projects on Mars,

你们当中的一些人将留在火星工作，

and I guarantee that some of your children will end up living there.

我保证 你们的孩子也将一直留在那里。

That probably sounds preposterous,

这可能听起来很荒谬

so I'm going to share with you how and when that will happen.

所以我将和各位分享 这如何发生，何时发生。

But first I want to discuss the obvious question:

首先我想讨论一个 显而易见的问题：

Why the heck should we do this?

我们为什么要这么做？

12 years ago,

12年前，

I gave a TED talk on 10 ways the world could end suddenly.

我在TED进行了一场关于 十种世界突然毁灭的方式的演讲。

We are incredibly vulnerable to the whims of our own galaxy.

我们在宇宙的奇思妙想面前 真的难以置信的脆弱。

A single, large asteroid could take us out forever.

单单一颗略大的小行星 就可以让我们永远消失。

To survive we have to reach beyond the home planet.

为了生存， 我们必须有后备的星球。

Think what a tragedy it would be

试想如果

if all that humans have accomplished were suddenly obliterated.

人类所创造的所有成就瞬间消失 那将是多大的悲剧啊。

And there's another reason we should go:

还有一个原因：

exploration is in our DNA.

我们生而勇于探索。

Two million years ago humans evolved in Africa

两百万年前起源于非洲的人类

and then slowly but surely spread out across the entire planet

缓慢却坚定地 探索着望不到尽头的荒野

by reaching into the wilderness that was beyond their horizons.

最终足迹遍布了整个星球。

This stuff is inside us.

这是我们的灵魂。

And they prospered doing that.

而且他们成功了。

Some of the greatest advances in civilization and technology

因为我们不停的探索， 文明和科技都取得了

came because we explored.

长足的进步。

Yes, we could do a lot of good

当然我们可以用钱

with the money it will take to establish a thriving colony on Mars.

搞定很多事情 去建立一个蒸蒸日上的火星殖民地。

And yes we should all be taking far better care of our own home planet.

当然，我们也应该 更好地管理和爱护我们自己的星球。

And yes, I worry we could screw up Mars the way we've screwed up Earth.

当然，我担心就像我们搞砸了地球一样， 我们可能也会搞砸火星。

But think for a moment,

不过先想一想，

what we had when John F. Kennedy told us we would put a human on the moon.

当肯尼迪总统向所有人宣布我们可以 把一个人类送到月球上时，

He excited an entire generation to dream.

他点燃了整代人的梦想。

Think how inspired we will be to see a landing on Mars.

试想为了登陆火星 我们将受到多么大的鼓舞。

Perhaps then we will look back at Earth

也许孤身一人时，

and see that that is one people instead of many

会回想地球的时光。

and perhaps then we will look back at Earth,

也许我们在火星顽强生存时，

as we struggle to survive on Mars,

会回想地球的美好，

and realize how precious the home planet is.

会意识到家的宝贵。

So let me tell you about the extraordinary adventure we're about to undertake.

下面我来介绍 我们将进行的神奇旅程。

But first,

首先，

a few fascinating facts about where we're going.

介绍一下 我们将要去的地方的奇妙之处。

This picture actually represents the true size of Mars compared to Earth.

这张照片真实的反应了 地球和火星的大小对比。

Mars is not our sister planet.

火星不是我们的姊妹星球，

It's far less than half the size of the Earth,

它比地球尺寸的一半还要小得多，

and yet despite the fact that it's smaller,

不过虽然火星小一些，

the surface area of Mars that you can stand on

在火星上表面 人类可以活动的面积

is equivalent to the surface area of the Earth that you can stand on,

和在地球上差不多大，

because the Earth is mostly covered by water.

因为地球主要被水覆盖。

The atmosphere on Mars is really thin --

火星的大气层非常稀薄，

100 times thinner than on Earth --

只有地球的厚度的百分之一，

and it's not breathable, it's 96 percent carbon dioxide.

而且火星上不能呼吸， 96%的空气是二氧化碳。

It's really cold there.

火星非常冷。

The average temperature is minus 81 degrees,

平均气温零下63摄氏度，

although there is quite a range of temperature.

昼夜温差也非常大。

A day on Mars is about as long as a day on Earth,

火星上的一昼夜的长短 和地球上差不多，

plus about 39 minutes.

比地球长大约39分钟。

Seasons and years on Mars are twice as long as they are on Earth.

火星上的每个季节和每年的时间 都是地球上的两倍长。

And for anybody who wants to strap on some wings and go flying one day,

对那些想插上翅膀 在火星上飞的人来说，

Mars has a lot less gravity than on Earth,

火星的重力比地球小很多，

and it's the kind of place

所以是个好选择。

where you can jump over your car instead of walk around it.

不用绕过你的车 你可以直接跳过去。

Now, as you can see, Mars isn't exactly Earth-like,

如你所见， 火星并不是像地球，

but it's by far the most livable other place in our entire solar system.

但是这是整个太阳系里 除地球外最适合居住的地方了。

Here's the problem.

不过有个问题。

Mars is a long way away,

去火星路途遥远

a thousand times farther away from us than our own moon.

是地月距离的一千倍。

The Moon is 250,000 miles away

月亮在四十万公里外

and it took Apollo astronauts three days to get there.

阿波罗号载着宇航员去那里要三天的时间。

Mars is 250 million miles away

火星在四亿公里以外

and it will take us eight months to get there --

要八个月我们才能到达，

240 days.

也就是240天。

And that's only if we launch on a very specific day,

而且我们每年只有两次机会，

at a very specific time,

趁地球和火星

once every two years,

成一条线的的时候

when Mars and the Earth are aligned just so,

在这个特殊的日子 特殊的时间降落，

so the distance that the rocket would have to travel will be the shortest.

因为这时候火箭运行 的距离才是最短的。

240 days is a long time to spend trapped with your colleagues in a tin can.

所有人在火箭里 待240天简直就是度日如年。

And meanwhile, our track record of getting to Mars is lousy.

而且翻看过去我们去火星 的记录也不是很理想。

We and the Russians, the Europeans, the Japanese,

我们、俄罗斯人、欧洲人、日本人

the Chinese and the Indians,

中国人和印度人

have actually sent 44 rockets there,

一共发射了44只火箭，

and the vast majority of them have either missed or crashed.

大部分都消失或者坠毁了。

Only about a third of the missions to Mars have been successful.

只有三分之一 的火箭成功到达了火星。

And we don't at the moment have a rocket big enough to get there anyway.

而且我们现在也没有 可以到达火星的足够大的火箭。

We once had that rocket, the Saturn V.

我们曾经有一只 叫做土星五号的大火箭。

A couple of Saturn Vs would have gotten us there.

几只土星五号就可以把我们送过去。

It was the most magnificent machine ever built by humans,

那是人类迄今为止制造的 最大的机器，

and it was the rocket that took us to the Moon.

它也正是带我们去月球的那只火箭。

But the last Saturn V was used in 1973 to launch the Skylab space station,

但是在最后一只土星五号火箭 1973年把宇宙空间站送上太空后

and we decided to do something called the shuttle

继续登陆火星，

instead of continuing on to Mars after we landed on the Moon.

转而开始研发航天飞机。

The biggest rocket we have now

目前我们所拥有的最大火箭

is only half big enough to get us anything to Mars.

只有当时的一半大。

So getting to Mars is not going to be easy

所以去火星并不容易。

and that brings up a really interesting question ...

那么问题来了

how soon will the first humans actually land here?

第一批人类登陆火星还要多久？

Now, some pundits think if we got there by 2050,

一些专家认为进展顺利的话，

that'd be a pretty good achievement.

2025年我们可以成功登陆火星。

These days, NASA seems to be saying that it can get humans to Mars by 2040.

最近NASA似乎认为 2040年前就可以送人类登陆火星。

Maybe they can.

也许他们可以做到。

I believe that they can get human beings into Mars orbit by 2035.

我认为他们可以在2035年之前 就把人送入火星轨道。

But frankly,

但是坦白说，

I don't think they're going to bother in 2035 to send a rocket to Mars,

我不认为他们在2035年 还会操心发射火箭到火星的事情，

because we will already be there.

因为我们已经在那里了。

We're going to land on Mars in 2027.

我们将要在2027年登陆火星。

And the reason is

因为

this man is determined to make that happen.

有人下决心做到这件事。

His name is Elon Musk, he's the CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX.

他叫埃隆·马斯克 特斯拉和SpaceX公司的CEO。

Now, he actually told me that we would land on Mars by 2025,

实际上他跟我说 2025年前我们就可以登陆火星，

but Elon Musk is more optimistic than I am --

但是埃隆·马斯克 比我要乐观，

and that's going a ways --

这是他的行事方式，

so I'm giving him a couple of years of slack.

所以我多给他两年作为缓冲。

Still ...

不过，

you've got to ask yourself,

大家可能会怀疑，

can this guy really do this by 2025 or 2027?

这个人真的可以在 2025年到2027年间做到么？

Well, let's put a decade with Elon Musk into a little perspective.

我们先看一下有埃隆·马斯克 的十年是如何发展的。

Where was this 10 years ago?

十年前是怎样的？

That's the Tesla electric automobile.

这是特斯拉电动汽车。

In 2005, a lot of people in the automobile industry were saying,

2005年很多汽车产业的人表示

we would not have a decent electric car for 50 years.

50年后我们才会有一辆 高级的电动汽车。

And where was that?

十年前的火箭产业呢？

That is SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket,

这是SpaceX的 猎鹰9号运载火箭

lifting six tons of supplies to the International Space Station.

满载六吨物资去往国际空间站。

10 years ago,

十年前，

SpaceX had not launched anything, or fired a rocket to anywhere.

SpaceX还没有发射过任何火箭。

So I think it's a pretty good bet

所以我认为

that the person who is revolutionizing the automobile industry

一个用不到十年时间

颠覆整个汽车产业

in less than 10 years

and the person who created an entire rocket company in less than 10 years

并且白手起家 创造整个火箭产业的人

will get us to Mars by 2027.

是可以在2027年前 带我们上火星的。

Now, you need to know this:

你要知道：

governments and robots no longer control this game.

政府和机器人不再是 太空飞行的掌控者，

Private companies are leaping into space

私人公司跳跃式的发展进入太空，

and they will be happy to take you to Mars.

他们很乐意带我们去火星。

And that raises a really big question.

不过随之而来的问题是

Can we actually live there?

我们真的可以在火星生存么？

Now, NASA may not be able to get us there until 2040,

NASA也许直到2040年 才可以把我们送到火星，

or we may get there a long time before NASA,

也许我们在NASA之前 就已经到达火星了，

but NASA has taken a huge responsibility in figuring out how we can live on Mars.

但是NASA需要解决 我们在火星如何生存的问题。

Let's look at the problem this way.

我们换个方式看这个问题。

Here's what you need to live on Earth:

这是在地球上生存的必需品：

food, water, shelter and clothing.

食物、水、住所和衣物。

And here's what you need to live on Mars:

这是在火星上生存的必需品：

all of the above, plus oxygen.

上面的所有加上氧气。

So let's look at the most important thing on this list first.

我们先说单子上最重要的东西。

Water is the basis of all life as we know it,

我们都知道水是生命之源，

and it's far too heavy for us to carry water from the Earth to Mars to live,

从地球带水去火星是不可能的，

so we have to find water if our life is going to succeed on Mars.

所以想要成功殖民火星 我们必须找到水源。

And if you look at Mars, it looks really dry,

乍一看火星是很干燥的，

it looks like the entire planet is a desert.

整个行星就像一个大沙漠，

But it turns out that it's not.

但实际上并非如此。

The soil alone on Mars contains up to 60 percent water.

仅仅火星上的泥土就包含60%的水。

And a number of orbiters that we still have flying around Mars have shown us --

仍然盘旋在火星上空的 人造卫星的照片告诉我们，

and by the way, that's a real photograph --

顺便说一句 这是一张真实照片，

that lots of craters on Mars have a sheet of water ice in them.

很多火星环形山中间都 被冰所覆盖。

It's not a bad place to start a colony.

在这里殖民就不错。

Now, here's a view of a little dig the Phoenix Lander did in 2008,

这是2008年凤凰号火星登录器 进行的小小的挖掘的照片，

showing that just below the surface of the soil is ice --

可以看到地表下就是冰，

that white stuff is ice.

白色的就是冰，

In the second picture,

第二张图

which is four days later than the first picture,

拍摄于第一张图之后四天，

you can see that some of it is evaporating.

你可以看到部分冰升华了。

Orbiters also tell us

卫星也告诉我们

that there are huge amounts of underground water on Mars

火星地下水和冰山资源

as well as glaciers.

都非常丰富。

In fact, if only the water ice at the poles on Mars melted,

实际上如果所有火星两级的冰融化了，

most of the planet would be under 30 feet of water.

火星上绝大部分地方 都会被9米深的水所覆盖。

So there's plenty of water there,

所以水资源很丰富。

but most of it's ice, most of it's underground,

不过大多数是冰 大多数在地下，

it takes a lot of energy to get it and a lot of human labor.

需要大量人力和能源去开采和挖掘。

This is a device cooked up at the University of Washington

这个仪器是1998年由华盛顿大学

back in 1998.

提出的设想。

It's basically a low-tech dehumidifier.

基本上这是一个低科技除湿器。

And it turns out the Mars atmosphere is often 100 percent humid.

事实上火星大气 100%是非常潮湿的，

So this device can extract all the water that humans will need

这个装置可以仅仅 从大气中吸取水分

simply from the atmosphere on Mars.

来满足人类需求。

Next we have to worry about what we will breathe.

接下来我们要考虑如何呼吸。

Frankly, I was really shocked

坦白地说我发现

to find out that NASA has this problem worked out.

NASA已经找到了 解决方案时我惊呆了。

This is a scientist at MIT named Michael Hecht.

这位在MIT的科学家 叫做迈克尔·赫克特。

And he's developed this machine, Moxie.

他制造了这个机器，莫克西。

I love this thing.

我爱这个机器

It's a reverse fuel cell, essentially,

它本质上是一个反向燃料电池，

that sucks in the Martian atmosphere and pumps out oxygen.

吸收火星的大气释放氧气。

And you have to remember that CO2 --

96%的火星大气成分二氧化碳

carbon dioxide, which is 96 percent of Mars' atmosphere --

基本上可以转化成为

CO2 is basically 78 percent oxygen.

78%的氧气。

Now, the next big rover that NASA sends to Mars in 2020

2020年下一个NASA 发射的巨型探测器

is going to have one of these devices aboard,

将会携带这些装置去火星，

and it will be able to produce enough oxygen

它可以制造足够一个人

to keep one person alive indefinitely.

一生取之不尽的氧气。

But the secret to this --

神奇的是，

and that's just for testing --

这只是在试验阶段，

the secret to this is that this thing was designed from the get-go

神奇的是这个装置 从一开始被设计成

to be scalable by a factor of 100.

可以扩展到100倍大小的规模。

Next, what will we eat?

接下来我们吃什么？

Well, we'll use hydroponics to grow food,

我们用水培法种植作物，

but we're not going to be able to grow

不过我们的种植规模不能

more than 15 to 20 percent of our food there,

超过我们粮食需求的15-20%。

at least not until water is running on the surface of Mars

除非火星表面已经被水覆盖

and we actually have the probability and the capability of planting crops.

并且我们有可能也有能力种植作物。

In the meantime,

否则在此期间，

most of our food will arrive from Earth,

食物大多是干燥后

and it will be dried.

从地球运输过来。

And then we need some shelter.

接下来，我们需要住处

At first we can use inflatable, pressurized buildings

一开始我们可以 住在充气密封建筑里

as well as the landers themselves.

和着陆器本身之中。

But this really only works during the daytime.

但是这只在白天才能实现。

There is too much solar radiation and too much radiation from cosmic rays.

太阳辐射和宇宙射线太多了，

So we really have to go underground.

所以我们必须躲进地下。

Now, it turns out that the soil on Mars,

已经证实火星上的土壤

by and large, is perfect for making bricks.

基本上很适合制造砖块。

And NASA has figured this one out, too.

NASA也发现了这个特点，

They're going to throw some polymer plastic into the bricks,

他们在砖块里掺入一些聚合塑料，

shove them in a microwave oven,

然后在微波炉里挤压，

and then you will be able to build buildings with really thick walls.

这样你就可以用这些 非常厚实的砖块建造房屋了。

Or we may choose to live underground in caves or in lava tubes,

或者我们可以选择 在火星上大量的洞穴和熔岩洞

of which there are plenty.

里面居住。

And finally there's clothing.

最后是衣物。

On Earth we have miles of atmosphere piled up on us,

在地球我们有 厚厚的大气堆在我们身上，

which creates 15 pounds of pressure on our bodies at all times,

一直给予我们身体15磅的压力。

and we're constantly pushing out against that.

我们已经习惯抵抗这部分压力了。

On Mars there's hardly any atmospheric pressure.

火星上几乎没有大气压力，

So Dava Newman,

所以达瓦·纽曼，

a scientist at MIT,

这个MIT的科学家，

has created this sleek space suit.

制造了这个光滑的宇航服。

It will keep us together,

它可以让我们连在一起，

block radiation and keep us warm.

抵抗射线，并且保持体温。

So let's think about this for a minute.

所以仔细想一下，

Food, shelter, clothing, water, oxygen ...

有了食物、住所、衣物、水源和氧气，

we can do this.

万事俱备。

We really can.

前途是光明的，

But it's still a little complicated and a little difficult.

但是道路是曲折的。

So that leads to the next big --

接下来要解决的问题是

really big step --

一个重要的问题：

in living the good life on Mars.

如何在火星很好的生活。

And that's terraforming the planet:

答案是地球化这个星球：

making it more like Earth,

让它更像地球一些，

reengineering an entire planet.

重新改造整个星球。

That sounds like a lot of hubris,

听起来好像过于狂妄了，

but the truth is

可是实际上

that the technology to do everything I'm about to tell you already exists.

所有所需要的科技 我们已经有了。

First we've got to warm it up.

首先我们先把气候变暖，

Mars is incredibly cold because it has a very thin atmosphere.

因为大气层稀薄火星非常的冷。

The answer lies here, at the south pole and at the north pole of Mars,

解决方案是， 火星的南极北极

both of which are covered

都覆盖着

with an incredible amount of frozen carbon dioxide --

大量的固态二氧化碳

dry ice.

也就是干冰。

If we heat it up,

如果我们加热它们，

it sublimes directly into the atmosphere

它们会直接升华

and thickens the atmosphere the same way it does on Earth.

并增加大气层的厚度， 和地球的情况一样。

And as we know,

我们都知道，

CO2 is an incredibly potent greenhouse gas.

二氧化碳是非常强大的温室气体。

Now, my favorite way of doing this is to erect a very, very large solar sail

这是我非常喜欢的一个办法， 建造一块非常非常大的太阳光反射器

and focus it --

使它聚焦

太阳光反射器本质上就是一面镜子

it essentially serves as a mirror --

and focus it on the south pole of Mars at first.

把焦点一开始对在火星的南极

As the planet spins, it will heat up all that dry ice, sublime it,

随着星球自转 镜子会加热并升华所有的干冰

and it will go into the atmosphere.

二氧化碳会进入到大气之中。

It actually won't take long

实际上火星的气温

for the temperature on Mars to start rising,

很快就会开始升高，

probably less than 20 years.

大概不到20年就可以。

Right now,

现在，

on a perfect day at the equator,

如果是夏天中的大晴天

in the middle of summer on Mars,

在火星的赤道上

temperatures can actually reach 70 degrees,

气温可以达到将近21摄氏度。

but then they go down to minus 100 at night.

但是在晚上 马上下降到零下73摄氏度。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

What we're shooting for is a runaway greenhouse effect:

我们为增强火星的温室效应而努力：

enough temperature rise to see a lot of that ice on Mars --

让火星升温 这样很多火星上的冰，

especially the ice in the ground -- melt.

尤其是地下的冰融化 。

Then we get some real magic.

接下来就是见证奇迹的时刻。

As the atmosphere gets thicker, everything gets better.

大气层变厚之后 一切都会好起来。

We get more protection from radiation,

我们受到更少的辐射，

more atmosphere makes us warmer, makes the planet warmer,

大气更厚，温度升得更高，

so we get running water

我们还获得了流动的水资源，

and that makes crops possible.

人类才有可能耕种。

Then more water vapor goes into the air, forming yet another potent greenhouse gas.

然后越来越多的水蒸气进入空气中 这是另一种强大的温室气体。

It will rain and it will snow on Mars.

火星上会下雨，会下雪，

And a thicker atmosphere will create enough pressure

等大气再厚一点 会制造足够的压力，

so that we can throw away those space suits.

我们就可以脱下那些宇航服了。

We only need about five pounds of pressure to survive.

只要有五磅左右的压力 我们就可以生存。

Eventually, Mars will be made to feel a lot like British Columbia.

最后火星的感觉 会很像英属哥伦比亚。

We'll still be left with the complicated problem

我们最后只剩下一个复杂的问题：

of making the atmosphere breathable,

就是如何制造可以呼吸的大气。

and frankly that could take 1,000 years to accomplish.

实话说 可能要1000年才可以做到。

But humans are amazingly smart and incredibly adaptable.

但是人类是非常聪明的， 适应能力也极强。

There is no telling what our future technology will be able to accomplish

谁也不知道将来 我们的科技会发展到什么程度，

and no telling what we can do with our own bodies.

我们的身体可以进化到什么程度。

In biology right now,

现在的生物学

we are on the very verge of being able to control our own genetics,

马上就可以控制我们自己的基因，

what the genes in our own bodies are doing,

控制每个基因在做什么，

and certainly,

当然，

eventually, our own evolution.

最终控制我们的进化。

We could end up with a species of human being on Earth

最终地球上的人类，

that is slightly different from the species of human beings on Mars.

也许和火星上的人类 有一些小小的不同。

But what would you do there? How would you live?

但是我们在火星做什么？ 怎么生活呢？

It's going to be the same as it is on Earth.

就像在地球一样，

Somebody's going to start a restaurant,

有人开饭店，

somebody's going to build an iron foundry.

有人铸铁，

Someone will make documentary movies of Mars

有人拍摄火星的纪录电影，

and sell them on Earth.

卖给地球的人，

Some idiot will start a reality TV show.

一些笨蛋开拍一些真人秀。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

There will be software companies,

那里将会有软件公司，

there will be hotels, there will be bars.

酒店，酒吧。

This much is certain:

有一点是确定的：

it will be the most disruptive event in our lifetimes,

这将是我们人生中 最重大的转折，

and I think it will be the most inspiring.

同时也将是最振奋人心的事件。

Ask any 10-year-old girl if she wants to go to Mars.

问一个十岁的女孩儿是否愿意去火星。

Children who are now in elementary school are going to choose to live there.

现在上小学的孩子 可以选择是否去那里居住。

Remember when we landed humans on the Moon?

想想我们登月的时候

When that happened, people looked at each other and said,

发生了什么？ 大家看着彼此说：

"If we can do this, we can do anything."

“如果我们成功，人类将所向披靡。”

What are they going to think when we actually form a colony on Mars?

那么如果我们真的殖民火星 我们将会怎么想呢？

Most importantly,

更重要的是，

it will make us a spacefaring species.

这将使我们成为航天物种。

And that means humans will survive no matter what happens on Earth.

这意味着无论地球发生什么 我们都不会灭绝。

We will never be the last of our kind.

我们这一代绝不会灭亡。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）