Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive | Stephen Petranek

譯者: Howard Chuang 審譯者: jackson leo

Strap yourselves in,

繫好安全帶，

we're going to Mars.

我們要去火星。

Not just a few astronauts --

不只是幾個太空人──

thousands of people are going to colonize Mars.

而是數以千計的人們要殖民火星。

And I am telling you that they're going to do this soon.

我想告訴你，這件事就快發生了。

Some of you will end up working on projects on Mars,

你們其中的一些人 最終將在火星上工作，

and I guarantee that some of your children will end up living there.

而且我敢肯定你們的孩子 最終也會在那裡生活。

That probably sounds preposterous,

這可能聽起來有些荒謬，

so I'm going to share with you how and when that will happen.

所以，我將和各位分享 這會發生在何時，和如何發生。

But first I want to discuss the obvious question:

但首先我想討論一個 顯而易見的問題：

Why the heck should we do this?

我們為何要這麼做？

12 years ago,

12 年前，

I gave a TED talk on 10 ways the world could end suddenly.

我做過一場 TED 演說， 是關於10 種世界突然毀滅的情況。

We are incredibly vulnerable to the whims of our own galaxy.

在率性的銀河系中， 我們難以想像的脆弱。

A single, large asteroid could take us out forever.

僅一顆大隕石就能將我們滅亡。

To survive we have to reach beyond the home planet.

為了生存，我們不能只侷限在地球。

Think what a tragedy it would be

想想這是怎樣的悲劇，

if all that humans have accomplished were suddenly obliterated.

如果人類所有的成就被瞬間摧毀。

And there's another reason we should go:

而另一個理由：

exploration is in our DNA.

就是我們基因裡的冒險精神。

Two million years ago humans evolved in Africa

兩百萬年前人類從非洲崛起，

and then slowly but surely spread out across the entire planet

然後緩慢但穩定地遍佈整個星球，

by reaching into the wilderness that was beyond their horizons.

通過探索茫茫無際的未知曠野。

This stuff is inside us.

這是人類的本能。

And they prospered doing that.

並且藉此繁榮。

Some of the greatest advances in civilization and technology

文明與科技的飛躍發展，

came because we explored.

也基於我們的探索 。

Yes, we could do a lot of good

沒錯，用於創建和繁榮 火星殖民地的資金

with the money it will take to establish a thriving colony on Mars.

的確可以用來做很多其他事情。

And yes we should all be taking far better care of our own home planet.

而且，我們確實應該 更好的照顧地球。

And yes, I worry we could screw up Mars the way we've screwed up Earth.

並且，我也擔心我們會把 火星弄得和地球一樣糟。

But think for a moment,

但是想想看，

what we had when John F. Kennedy told us we would put a human on the moon.

當約翰·甘迺迪宣布， 我們將把人類送上月球的時刻。

He excited an entire generation to dream.

他點燃了整整一代人的夢想。

Think how inspired we will be to see a landing on Mars.

想像當我們親眼目睹 登陸火星會多鼓舞人心。

Perhaps then we will look back at Earth

或許之後，我們回頭看地球，

and see that that is one people instead of many

看到的是一整個民族而不是很多人，

and perhaps then we will look back at Earth,

或許之後，當我們在

as we struggle to survive on Mars,

火星上艱困生存的時候，

and realize how precious the home planet is.

再回頭看地球， 才會了解到地球的珍貴。

So let me tell you about the extraordinary adventure we're about to undertake.

現在，我來告訴你 這場即將開始的非凡冒險。

But first,

但首先，

a few fascinating facts about where we're going.

先說說本次目的地的奇特之處。

This picture actually represents the true size of Mars compared to Earth.

這張照片顯示出 火星對比地球的真實大小。

Mars is not our sister planet.

火星不是我們的姐妹星球。

It's far less than half the size of the Earth,

她連地球的一半都不到，

and yet despite the fact that it's smaller,

然而，儘管它的實際體積較小，

the surface area of Mars that you can stand on

但火星上可站立的地表面積

is equivalent to the surface area of the Earth that you can stand on,

等同於地球上的可站立地表面積，

because the Earth is mostly covered by water.

因為地球大部分表面是被水覆蓋著。

The atmosphere on Mars is really thin --

火星的大氣層非常稀薄──

100 times thinner than on Earth --

比地球稀薄上百倍──

and it's not breathable, it's 96 percent carbon dioxide.

而且 96% 是二氧化碳， 所以無法呼吸。

It's really cold there.

那裡非常冷。

The average temperature is minus 81 degrees,

平均溫度在華氏負 81 度，

although there is quite a range of temperature.

日夜溫差很大。

A day on Mars is about as long as a day on Earth,

火星上的一天相當於地球上的一天，

plus about 39 minutes.

再加上約 39 分鐘。

Seasons and years on Mars are twice as long as they are on Earth.

火星上的一季和一年的長度 大約是地球的兩倍。

And for anybody who wants to strap on some wings and go flying one day,

對於想要插上翅膀 在天空飛翔的人們而言，

Mars has a lot less gravity than on Earth,

火星比地球重力更小，

and it's the kind of place

在這裡，

where you can jump over your car instead of walk around it.

你可以跳過車輛而不用繞過它。

Now, as you can see, Mars isn't exactly Earth-like,

如你所見，火星並不像地球，

but it's by far the most livable other place in our entire solar system.

但卻是目前為止，太陽系中 另一個最適合人類居住的地方。

Here's the problem.

那麼問題來了，

Mars is a long way away,

火星好遠，

a thousand times farther away from us than our own moon.

比我們到月球的距離還要遠上千倍。

The Moon is 250,000 miles away

月球離地球有 25 萬英里，

and it took Apollo astronauts three days to get there.

而阿波羅太空人花了 3 天才到。

Mars is 250 million miles away

火星離地球有 2.5 億英里，

and it will take us eight months to get there --

需要 8 個月才能到達──

240 days.

就是 240 天。

And that's only if we launch on a very specific day,

而且還必需在特定的日子，

at a very specific time,

特定的時間出發，

once every two years,

每兩年才有一次的機會，

when Mars and the Earth are aligned just so,

當火星和地球對齊時，

so the distance that the rocket would have to travel will be the shortest.

火箭航行距離最短。

240 days is a long time to spend trapped with your colleagues in a tin can.

和同事一起被困在小太空艙裡 240 天是相當漫長的。

And meanwhile, our track record of getting to Mars is lousy.

並且，我們前往火星的記錄也很糟。

We and the Russians, the Europeans, the Japanese,

我們美國和俄羅斯、歐洲、日本，

the Chinese and the Indians,

以及中國和印度，

have actually sent 44 rockets there,

事實上，已發射了 44 枚火箭，

and the vast majority of them have either missed or crashed.

但絕大部分不是沒射中就是撞毀。

Only about a third of the missions to Mars have been successful.

只有三分之一成功到達。

And we don't at the moment have a rocket big enough to get there anyway.

而且我們目前還沒有 夠大的火箭飛到那裡。

We once had that rocket, the Saturn V.

我們曾經有那樣的火箭，土星五號。

A couple of Saturn Vs would have gotten us there.

把幾枚土星五號 捆在一起就能把我們送達。

It was the most magnificent machine ever built by humans,

那是人類建造過的最大機器，

and it was the rocket that took us to the Moon.

也是帶我們去月球的火箭。

But the last Saturn V was used in 1973 to launch the Skylab space station,

1973 年，最後一枚土星五號 被發射到天空實驗室太空站，

and we decided to do something called the shuttle

在登陸月球之後， 我們決定使用太空梭

instead of continuing on to Mars after we landed on the Moon.

來執行後續的火星之旅。

The biggest rocket we have now

我們現有的最大火箭，

is only half big enough to get us anything to Mars.

只有前往火星所需火箭的一半大小。

So getting to Mars is not going to be easy

因此前行的路並不容易，

and that brings up a really interesting question ...

這就產生了問題……

how soon will the first humans actually land here?

人類最快何時能首次登陸火星？

Now, some pundits think if we got there by 2050,

現在，一些專家認為 如果 2050 年能去，

that'd be a pretty good achievement.

就已經相當不錯了。

These days, NASA seems to be saying that it can get humans to Mars by 2040.

但最近，NASA（美國太空總署） 似乎認為 2040 年就能送人類上火星。

Maybe they can.

也許他們可以。

I believe that they can get human beings into Mars orbit by 2035.

我相信他們能在 2035 年 將人類送入火星軌道。

But frankly,

但坦率地說，

I don't think they're going to bother in 2035 to send a rocket to Mars,

我不認為他們到 2035 年 還擔心發射火箭到火星的事，

because we will already be there.

因為我們已經在那裡了。

We're going to land on Mars in 2027.

我們將於 2027 年登陸火星。

And the reason is

這是因為

this man is determined to make that happen.

這個人下決心要實現它。

His name is Elon Musk, he's the CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX.

他叫伊隆·馬斯克，特斯拉汽車 和 SpaceX 公司的執行長。

Now, he actually told me that we would land on Mars by 2025,

現在，他肯定的告訴我， 我們將在 2025 年登陸火星，

but Elon Musk is more optimistic than I am --

伊隆·馬斯克比我更樂觀

and that's going a ways --

這是他的方式──

so I'm giving him a couple of years of slack.

所以我多給出幾年的彈性時間。

Still ...

但是......

you've got to ask yourself,

或許你會懷疑，

can this guy really do this by 2025 or 2027?

這傢伙真的能在 2025 年 或 2027 年做到嗎？

Well, let's put a decade with Elon Musk into a little perspective.

好吧，讓我們來看 伊隆·馬斯克十年內能做些什麼。

Where was this 10 years ago?

如果在 10 年前？

That's the Tesla electric automobile.

提到特斯拉電動汽車──

In 2005, a lot of people in the automobile industry were saying,

在 2005 年，很多汽車業內人士都說，

we would not have a decent electric car for 50 years.

我們在 50 年內不會有 像樣的電動汽車。

And where was that?

那麼還有呢？

That is SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket,

那是 SpaceX 公司的獵鷹 9 號火箭，

lifting six tons of supplies to the International Space Station.

運送 6 噸補給品到國際太空站。

10 years ago,

可是在 10 年前，

SpaceX had not launched anything, or fired a rocket to anywhere.

SpaceX 公司沒有發射過任何火箭。

So I think it's a pretty good bet

所以，我認為這值得一賭，

that the person who is revolutionizing the automobile industry

他只用不到 10 年時間

in less than 10 years

就革新了整個汽車工業。

and the person who created an entire rocket company in less than 10 years

並在 10 年內裡創建了 整個火箭研製公司，

will get us to Mars by 2027.

可能在 2027 年把我們送去火星。

Now, you need to know this:

現在，你要知道：

governments and robots no longer control this game.

政府和機器人不再控制壟斷這領域，

Private companies are leaping into space

私人公司湧入其中。

and they will be happy to take you to Mars.

他們很樂意帶你去火星。

And that raises a really big question.

這就產生了關鍵性問題。

Can we actually live there?

我們真的可以在那裡生活嗎？

Now, NASA may not be able to get us there until 2040,

在 2040 年之前，NASA 可能無法送我們去那裡，

or we may get there a long time before NASA,

或者我們在 NASA 之前就做到了，

but NASA has taken a huge responsibility in figuring out how we can live on Mars.

但 NASA 肩負了確保人類 在火星上生存的巨大責任。

Let's look at the problem this way.

換個方式來看這個難題。

Here's what you need to live on Earth:

這是你在地球上生活的必需品：

food, water, shelter and clothing.

食品、水、住所和衣物。

And here's what you need to live on Mars:

而在火星上的必需品是

all of the above, plus oxygen.

上述所有，加上氧氣。

So let's look at the most important thing on this list first.

因此，我們先來看清單中最重要部分。

Water is the basis of all life as we know it,

如眾所知，水是所有生命的基礎，

and it's far too heavy for us to carry water from the Earth to Mars to live,

要把水從地球運到火星是不實際的，

so we have to find water if our life is going to succeed on Mars.

所以要在火星上生存就必須找到水。

And if you look at Mars, it looks really dry,

但你來看火星，它看起來非常乾旱，

it looks like the entire planet is a desert.

整顆星球就像一個沙漠。

But it turns out that it's not.

但事實證明，並非如此。

The soil alone on Mars contains up to 60 percent water.

火星土壤含水量可高達 60％。

And a number of orbiters that we still have flying around Mars have shown us --

從許多繞火星飛行的 人造衛星所獲得的資料──

and by the way, that's a real photograph --

順便說一下，這是張真實的照片──

that lots of craters on Mars have a sheet of water ice in them.

火星上很多火山口 都覆蓋一層冰水物質。

It's not a bad place to start a colony.

在這是建立殖民地就不錯。

Now, here's a view of a little dig the Phoenix Lander did in 2008,

這張 2008 年拍攝的照片 展示鳳凰號登陸器的挖掘實景，

showing that just below the surface of the soil is ice --

可以看到土壤表層下是冰。

that white stuff is ice.

那白色的物體就是冰。

In the second picture,

在第二張照片裡，

which is four days later than the first picture,

是上張照片的四天後所拍攝的，

you can see that some of it is evaporating.

你可以看到，有一部分冰蒸發了。

Orbiters also tell us

人造衛星也告訴我們

that there are huge amounts of underground water on Mars

火星上有大量地下水

as well as glaciers.

以及冰川。

In fact, if only the water ice at the poles on Mars melted,

實際上，如果僅僅 火星兩極的冰蓋融化，

most of the planet would be under 30 feet of water.

星球的大部分將淹沒在 30 英尺的水之下。

So there's plenty of water there,

所以，火星水源充足，

but most of it's ice, most of it's underground,

但大部分是冰， 大部分也儲存於地表之下，

it takes a lot of energy to get it and a lot of human labor.

需要大量的能源和人力去開採。

This is a device cooked up at the University of Washington

這是華盛頓大學早在 1998 年所發明的設備，

back in 1998.

It's basically a low-tech dehumidifier.

這基本上就是個低技術的除濕機。

And it turns out the Mars atmosphere is often 100 percent humid.

而事實證明，火星大氣層 常處於 100％ 的濕度。

So this device can extract all the water that humans will need

所以這個設備可以簡單的從大氣層

simply from the atmosphere on Mars.

提取人類所需的水。

Next we have to worry about what we will breathe.

接下來要考慮如何呼吸的問題。

Frankly, I was really shocked

坦率地說，發現這已被 NASA 解決的時候，

to find out that NASA has this problem worked out.

我非常震驚。

This is a scientist at MIT named Michael Hecht.

MIT（麻省理工學院）的科學家， 邁克爾·赫克特。

And he's developed this machine, Moxie.

他研製的這台稱為莫可西機器，

I love this thing.

我相當喜歡它。

It's a reverse fuel cell, essentially,

它實質上是一個反向燃料電池，

that sucks in the Martian atmosphere and pumps out oxygen.

吸入火星大氣然後排出氧氣。

And you have to remember that CO2 --

而且你要記住，CO2──

carbon dioxide, which is 96 percent of Mars' atmosphere --

二氧化碳佔了火星大氣層的 96%──

CO2 is basically 78 percent oxygen.

但 CO2 中的 78％ 就是氧氣。

Now, the next big rover that NASA sends to Mars in 2020

NASA 計劃在 2020 年 發送到火星的大型登陸車上

is going to have one of these devices aboard,

將安裝這樣的裝置，

and it will be able to produce enough oxygen

並且它能製造滿足一個人

to keep one person alive indefinitely.

一生所需的氧氣量。

But the secret to this --

這還有一個秘密──

and that's just for testing --

當然這還在測試階段──

the secret to this is that this thing was designed from the get-go

這組機器的設計初衷

to be scalable by a factor of 100.

就是要能擴大 100 倍。

Next, what will we eat?

好吧，我們吃什麼呢？

Well, we'll use hydroponics to grow food,

我們將用水耕法來種植糧食，

but we're not going to be able to grow

但我們只能種植出

more than 15 to 20 percent of our food there,

我們所需食物量的 15％ 到 20％，

at least not until water is running on the surface of Mars

除非水已經在 火星的表面上流淌成河，

and we actually have the probability and the capability of planting crops.

並且我們真的能種植農作物 並確保成功率。

In the meantime,

在這之前，

most of our food will arrive from Earth,

我們大部分的食物會從地球運送，

and it will be dried.

是脫水乾燥食物。

And then we need some shelter.

而且，我們需要住所。

At first we can use inflatable, pressurized buildings

首先，我們住在充氣加壓式建築物

as well as the landers themselves.

以及登陸器本身。

But this really only works during the daytime.

但是，這只在白天才能住。

There is too much solar radiation and too much radiation from cosmic rays.

太陽輻射以及宇宙射線太多。

So we really have to go underground.

所以，我們需要住在地下。

Now, it turns out that the soil on Mars,

目前已證實，火星大部分的土壤，

by and large, is perfect for making bricks.

非常適合製造磚塊。

And NASA has figured this one out, too.

NASA 也已得出這樣的結論。

They're going to throw some polymer plastic into the bricks,

他們會在磚塊中加入高分子塑料，

shove them in a microwave oven,

放在微波爐中擠壓，

and then you will be able to build buildings with really thick walls.

然後就可以造出厚重磚牆的建築物。

Or we may choose to live underground in caves or in lava tubes,

或者，我們可以選擇 住在地下、洞穴或熔岩管，

of which there are plenty.

這樣的地方火星上有很多。

And finally there's clothing.

最後還有衣服。

On Earth we have miles of atmosphere piled up on us,

在地球上，幾英里厚的 大氣層堆積在我們之上，

which creates 15 pounds of pressure on our bodies at all times,

我們身體一直承受著 15 磅的壓力，

and we're constantly pushing out against that.

所以我們身體在不停的抵抗。

On Mars there's hardly any atmospheric pressure.

火星上幾乎沒有任何大氣壓力。

So Dava Newman,

所以達瓦·紐曼，

a scientist at MIT,

這位 MIT 的科學家，

has created this sleek space suit.

設計了這件光滑太空服。

It will keep us together,

它讓我們維持身體形狀，

block radiation and keep us warm.

阻擋輻射並保持溫暖。

So let's think about this for a minute.

到此，我們回顧一下。

Food, shelter, clothing, water, oxygen ...

食品、住房、衣服、水、氧氣……

we can do this.

我們都能辦到。

We really can.

全部都能。

But it's still a little complicated and a little difficult.

但實際操作難免複雜困難。

So that leads to the next big --

所以接下來的問題──

really big step --

是非常關鍵的 ──

in living the good life on Mars.

如果要在火星上生活得好。

And that's terraforming the planet:

就是要改造整顆星球：

making it more like Earth,

讓它地球化，

reengineering an entire planet.

改造整顆星球，

That sounds like a lot of hubris,

這聽起來非常的狂妄，

but the truth is

但事實上，

that the technology to do everything I'm about to tell you already exists.

我們已具備所需的科技。

First we've got to warm it up.

首先，我們得把溫度提高。

Mars is incredibly cold because it has a very thin atmosphere.

火星太冷，因為它的 大氣層非常稀薄。

The answer lies here, at the south pole and at the north pole of Mars,

解決方法就在火星的兩極，

both of which are covered

都覆蓋著

with an incredible amount of frozen carbon dioxide --

大量的固態二氧化碳──

dry ice.

乾冰。

If we heat it up,

如果我們把它加熱一下，

it sublimes directly into the atmosphere

它直接氣化到大氣層，

and thickens the atmosphere the same way it does on Earth.

用在地球上同樣的方式 來加厚大氣層。

And as we know,

而我們知道，

CO2 is an incredibly potent greenhouse gas.

CO2 是一種強效溫室氣體。

Now, my favorite way of doing this is to erect a very, very large solar sail

目前，我最喜歡的加熱方式 是豎立巨大太陽帆，

and focus it --

然後聚焦──

it essentially serves as a mirror --

它實際上就是一面大鏡子──

and focus it on the south pole of Mars at first.

然後先面向火星的南極。

As the planet spins, it will heat up all that dry ice, sublime it,

隨著火星自轉時， 太陽帆會加熱氣化所有的乾冰，

and it will go into the atmosphere.

然後進入大氣層。

It actually won't take long

這其實並不需要很長時間，

for the temperature on Mars to start rising,

火星地表溫度開始上升，

probably less than 20 years.

整個過程不用 20 年。

Right now,

在此之後，

on a perfect day at the equator,

火星的夏季中期的晴天，

in the middle of summer on Mars,

赤道的溫度，

temperatures can actually reach 70 degrees,

可以達到華氏 70 度，

but then they go down to minus 100 at night.

但夜間還是會降到零下 100 度。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

What we're shooting for is a runaway greenhouse effect:

我們在專注在溫室效應試驗：

enough temperature rise to see a lot of that ice on Mars --

溫度上升，火星上的冰──

especially the ice in the ground -- melt.

特別是地表冰層會融化。

Then we get some real magic.

接下來，見證奇蹟的時刻到了。

As the atmosphere gets thicker, everything gets better.

當大氣層變厚，一切會變得更好。

We get more protection from radiation,

更多保護讓我們遠離輻射，

more atmosphere makes us warmer, makes the planet warmer,

加厚的大氣層讓整個星球變暖，

so we get running water

我們有了流動的水，

and that makes crops possible.

就可能實現農耕。

Then more water vapor goes into the air, forming yet another potent greenhouse gas.

然後更多的水蒸汽進入空氣中， 形成另一種強效溫室氣體。

It will rain and it will snow on Mars.

火星上就會下雨下雪。

And a thicker atmosphere will create enough pressure

更厚的大氣層將創造足夠的壓力，

so that we can throw away those space suits.

我們就能脫掉太空服。

We only need about five pounds of pressure to survive.

我們只需大約 5 磅的 大氣壓就能生存。

Eventually, Mars will be made to feel a lot like British Columbia.

最終，火星感覺很像英屬哥倫比亞。

We'll still be left with the complicated problem

我們還有一些複雜的問題，

of making the atmosphere breathable,

讓大氣轉變成適合人類呼吸，

and frankly that could take 1,000 years to accomplish.

坦率地說可能需要上千年來完成。

But humans are amazingly smart and incredibly adaptable.

但是人類的智慧 和適應性都是超群的。

There is no telling what our future technology will be able to accomplish

現在不能保證 未來不會有技術能實現，

and no telling what we can do with our own bodies.

也不能保證我們的身體 會進化成什麼樣。

In biology right now,

現在的生物學，

we are on the very verge of being able to control our own genetics,

我們即將做到能控制 我們的每一個基因，

what the genes in our own bodies are doing,

在身體裡的作用，

and certainly,

當然，

eventually, our own evolution.

最終，控制自身的進化。

We could end up with a species of human being on Earth

最終在地球上的人類

that is slightly different from the species of human beings on Mars.

和火星上人類即使略有不同。

But what would you do there? How would you live?

你會在火星上做什麼呢？ 你將如何生活？

It's going to be the same as it is on Earth.

和在地球上一樣。

Somebody's going to start a restaurant,

有人要開餐廳，

somebody's going to build an iron foundry.

有人要建鑄鐵廠，

Someone will make documentary movies of Mars

有人拍火星紀錄片，

and sell them on Earth.

賣給地球上的人。

Some idiot will start a reality TV show.

一些白痴開始做一檔 電視真人秀節目。

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

There will be software companies,

這裡將會有軟體公司，

there will be hotels, there will be bars.

也會有酒店酒吧。

This much is certain:

有一點是肯定的：

it will be the most disruptive event in our lifetimes,

這將是我們有生之年 最爆炸性的事件，

and I think it will be the most inspiring.

這也是最鼓舞人心的。

Ask any 10-year-old girl if she wants to go to Mars.

問一個 10 歲女孩願意去火星嗎？

Children who are now in elementary school are going to choose to live there.

現在讀國小的孩子 將選擇是否住在那裡。

Remember when we landed humans on the Moon?

回想當我們在月球登陸時 發生了什麼？

When that happened, people looked at each other and said,

人們對視，說：

"If we can do this, we can do anything."

「如果這我們也能做到， 那我們無所不能。」

What are they going to think when we actually form a colony on Mars?

當我們成功建造火星殖民地時 大家會怎麼看？

Most importantly,

最重要的是，

it will make us a spacefaring species.

我們會成為在宇宙中穿梭的物種。

And that means humans will survive no matter what happens on Earth.

這意味著不管地球遭遇什麼， 人類都將存活下去。

We will never be the last of our kind.

我們不會滅亡。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）