Why we have virus outbreaks & how we can prevent them | Nathan Wolfe

翻译人员: Qian YANG 校对人员: Beibei Mu

When most people think about the beginnings

当大多数人思索艾滋病的起源时，

of AIDS, they're gonna think back to the 1980s.

他们会回想到20世纪80年代。

And certainly, this was the decade in which we discovered AIDS

当然，就是在这个十年里，我们发现了艾滋病，

and the virus that causes it, HIV.

以及导致该病的病毒，艾滋病病毒。

But in fact this virus crossed over into humans many decades before,

但是事实上，这个病毒在几十年前就已经从黑猩猩身上交叉感染到了人类身上，

from chimpanzees, where the virus originated, into humans who hunt these apes.

病毒在黑猩猩身上首次发现，然后传染到捕猎这些猿类的人类身上。

This photo was taken before the Great Depression

这张照片是大萧条之前，

in Brazzaville, Congo.

在刚果的布拉扎维拍摄的。

At this time, there were thousands of individuals,

那时，有成千上百的人，

we think, that were infected with HIV.

在我们看来，是被艾滋病病毒感染的。

So I have a couple of really important questions for you.

所以我有几个非常重要的问题要问你们。

If this virus was in thousands

如果病毒存在于

of individuals at this point,

数千人的体内，

why was it the case that it took us until 1984

那么为什么直到1984年

to be able to discover this virus?

我们才发现这个病毒呢？

OK now, more importantly,

现在，更重要的是，

had we been there in the '40s and '50s, '60s,

我们生活在20世纪40年代，50年代，还是60年代，

had we seen this disease, had we understood

我们看到这个疾病了吗，我们明白

exactly what was going on with it, how might that have changed and completely

这个病到底是怎么回事吗？我们明白，它是怎样改变，

transformed the nature of the way this pandemic moved?

而且完全改变了流行性疾病的本质吗？

In fact, this is not unique to HIV. The vast majority of

事实上，不仅仅是艾滋病病毒。很多的病毒

viruses come from animals.

都来自于动物。

And you can kind of think of this as a pyramid of this bubbling up of viruses

你可以想成是病毒的金字塔

from animals into human populations.

依次从动物到人类

But only at the very top of this pyramid do these things become completely human.

但是只有在金字塔的最顶端，这些事情才会发生在人类身上。

Nevertheless, we spend the vast majority

不过，我们花了大量的精力

of our energy focused on this level of the pyramid,

专注于金字塔的等级

trying to tackle things that are already completely adapted to human beings,

试着处理人类已经完全习惯的事情

that are going to be very very difficult to address --

这些解决起来会非常非常的困难，

as we've seen in the case of HIV.

就像我们看到的艾滋病病毒一样。

So during the last 15 years,

所以在最近的15年里，

I've been working to actually study the earlier interface here --

我一直都在致力于，事实上是研究更早时期的联系

what I've labeled "viral chatter," which was a term coined

这就是我所称的“病毒谈话者”，这是我的顾问唐.博克

by my mentor Don Burke.

发明的一个用语。

This is the idea that we can study the sort of

这个想法就是，我们可以研究

pinging of these viruses into human populations,

这些病毒是怎么样感染人类，

the movement of these agents over into humans;

以及病毒携带者进入人体的过程，

and by capturing this moment,

通过捕捉这一瞬间，

we might be able to move to a situation where we can catch them early.

我们或许可以追溯到发现病毒的早期。

OK, so this is a picture, and I'm going to show you

好的，所以这是张照片，我现在要向你们展示

some pictures now from the field.

一些这个领域的照片。

This is a picture of a central African hunter.

这是中非捕猎者的一张照片

It's actually a fairly common picture.

其实是很普通的一张照片。

One of the things I want you to note from it

我想让你们从照片中注意一件事情

is blood -- that you see a tremendous amount of blood contact.

就是血，你可以看到有很多的血液接触。

This was absolutely key for us. This is a

对我们来说这就是非常之关键。

very intimate form of connection.

这是一个非常亲密的接触。

So if we're going to study viral chatter, we need to

所以如果我们要研究病毒谈话者，我们就需要

get to these populations who have intensive contact with wild animals.

找到和野生动物有密切接触的人群。

And so we've been studying people like this individual.

所以我们就一直在研究有类似这个人的情况的人。

We collect blood from them, other specimens.

我们从他们身上和其他生物身上提取血样。

We look at the diseases, which are in the animals as well as the humans.

我们对这些在动物和人身上所发生的疾病进行研究。

And ideally, this is going to allow us to catch these things

理想的情况是，这可以让我们在早期就应控制住这个疾病

early on, as they're moving over into human populations.

因为这些疾病会传染到人类身上。

And the basic objective of this work is not to just

此项工作最基本的目标不仅仅

go out once and look at these individuals,

是从外部研究这些受感染的人，

but to establish thousands of individuals

而是要在这些人群中建立

in these populations that we would monitor

数千个个体，这样我们就可以监控

continuously on a regular basis.

在日常的基础上持续的监控。

When they were sick, we would collect specimens from them.

当他们生病时，我们可以从他们身上提取血液样本。

We would actually enlist them --

我们可以将这些样本标做记号

which we've done now -- to collect specimens from animals.

这些我们现在已经完成，在动物身上提取样本。

We give them these little pieces of filter paper.

我们给他们这些小的过滤纸片。

When they sample from animals,

当他们从动物身上提取样本时，

they collect the blood on the filter paper

可以将提取的血液放到滤纸上

and this allows us to identify yet-unknown viruses from exactly the right animals --

这就可以允许我们从特定的动物身上发现未知的病毒，

the ones that are actually being hunted.

这些动物实际上是已经被捕获的。

(Video) Narrator: Deep in a remote region of Cameroon,

（视频）：叙事者：深在喀麦隆遥远地区，

two hunters stalk their prey.

两个猎人正在跟踪他们的猎物。

Their names are Patrice and Patee.

他们的名字是帕特里斯和帕蒂。

They're searching for bush meat;

他们正在寻找非洲野生动物

forest animals they can kill to feed their families.

也就是他们可以杀掉用来喂养自己家庭的森林动物。

Patrice and Patee set out most days to go out hunting

帕特里斯和帕蒂几乎每天都整装待发，外出打猎

in the forest around their homes.

地点是在他们家周围的森林里。

They have a series of traps, of snares that they've set up

他们有一系列设计的圈套和陷阱

to catch wild pigs, snakes, monkeys,

为了就是捉住野猪、蛇、猴子、

rodents -- anything they can, really.

鼠类动物，以及任何他们能捕获的动物。

Patrice and Patee have been out for hours but found nothing.

帕特里斯和帕蒂已经外出几小时了，但是一无所获。

The animals are simply gone.

动物很轻易的就逃跑了。

We stop for a drink of water.

我们停下来喝了点水。

Then there is a rustle in the brush.

然后在草丛里有窸窣的响声。

A group of hunters approach,

一群猎人走近。

their packs loaded with wild game.

他们的包裹里装满了不同的野味。

There's at least three viruses

至少带有三种病毒

that you know about, which are in this particular monkey.

是你知道的，这些病毒存在于一种特殊的猴子身上。

Nathan Wolfe: This species, yeah. And there's many many more pathogens

内森.沃尔夫：这个物种，是的。有很多很多病原体

that are present in these animals.

都存在于这些动物身上。

These individuals are at specific risk,

这些人都处在一种特定的风险之中，

particularly if there's blood contact, they're at risk for transmission

尤其是如果人与动物之间有血液接触，那么人类就有传染的风险

and possibly infection with novel viruses.

也有可能感染其他的病毒。

Narrator: As the hunters display their kills, something surprising happens.

叙事者：当捕猎者展示他们的技巧时，一些令人吃惊的事情就发生了。

They show us filter paper they've used to collect the animals' blood.

他们向我们展示他们用来提取动物血液的滤纸。

The blood will be tested for zoonotic viruses,

血液将用来检测动物传染性病毒，

part of a program Dr. Wolfe has spent years setting up.

沃尔夫博士研究项目的一部分花了几年的时间才建立起来。

NW: So this is from this animal right here,

内森.沃尔夫：所以就是从这里的这个动物开始的，

Greater Spot-Nosed Guenon.

也就是大斑鼻猴。

Every person who has one of those filter papers has at least,

每个人都有其中一张过滤纸，这些人至少，

at a minimum, been through our basic health education

都接受过我们基本的健康教育

about the risks associated with these activities,

知道与这些活动相关的风险，

which presumably, from our perspective,

这可能从我们的观点来看，

gives them the ability to decrease their own risk,

能给他们一种降低风险的能力，

and then obviously the risk to their families,

也可以降低对家庭的风险，

the village, the country, and the world.

以及村落、国家和世界的危险。

NW: OK, before I continue, I think it's important to take just a moment

内森.沃尔夫：好，在我继续之前，我觉得很重要的是花些时间

to talk about bush meat. Bush meat is the hunting of wild game.

去讨论一下非洲野生动物肉。非洲野生动物肉就是捕获野味。

OK? And you can consider all sorts of different bush meat.

是吧？你可以考虑多种不同的非洲野生动物肉。

I'm going to be talking about this.

我要讨论的就是这个。

When your children and grandchildren

当你的孩子、孙子和孙女

sort of pose questions to you about this period of time,

整理出一些关于这段时期的问题来问你，

one of the things they're gonna ask you,

其中有一件他们要问你的事情，

is how it was they we allowed some of our closest living relatives,

是我们是怎样使这些动物变成自己最亲密的伙伴的，

some of the most valuable and endangered species

一些地球上最珍贵和濒临灭绝的种群

on our planet, to go extinct because we

将要灭绝，因为我们

weren't able to address some of the issues

不能解决

of poverty in these parts of the world.

世界上这些地区的一些贫穷问题。

But in fact that's not the only question they're going to ask you about this.

但是事实上这不是他们要问你关于这个的唯一问题。

They're also going to ask you the question

他们要问你的问题是

that when we knew that this was the way that HIV entered

当我们知道这是艾滋病病毒进入

into the human population,

人类的方式时，

and that other diseases had the potential to enter like this,

知道其他疾病也有可能会进入人体时，

why did we let these behaviors continue?

为什么我们要让这些行为继续？

Why did we not find some other solution to this?

为什么我们没有找到其他的解决办法呢？

They're going to say, in regions of profound

他们会说，在那些

instability throughout the world,

世界上极其不稳定的地区

where you have intense poverty, where populations are growing

人们非常贫穷，人口在不断的增长

and you don't have sustainable resources like this,

而且不会有像这可以继续利用的资源，

this is going to lead to food insecurity.

这将会导致食品不安全

But they're also going to ask you probably a different question.

但是他们也可能会问你一个不同的问题。

It's one that I think we all need to ask ourselves,

这是一个我认为我们都需要问自己的问题，

which is, why we thought the responsibility rested with this individual here.

那就是，为什么我们认为这些责任是这里所指的几个人的。

Now this is the individual -- you can see just right up over his right shoulder --

现在这就是那个人，你可以看到就是那个右肩膀较高的那个

this is the individual that hunted the monkey

这就是那个捕获猴子的人

from the last picture that I showed you.

在我给你们看过的上一张照片上有他。

OK, take a look at his shirt.

好，现在来看一下他的衬衫。

You know, take a look at his face.

你知道的，看一下他的脸。

Bush meat is one of the central crises,

非洲野生动物肉是主要风险之一，

which is occurring in our population right now,

这种风险会马上在我们人类当中发生，

in humanity, on this planet.

会发生在地球的人类身上。

But it can't be the fault of somebody like this.

但是这不是一些像这样人的错误。

OK? And solving it cannot be his responsibility alone.

对吗？解决问题也不是他自己的责任。

There's no easy solutions,

没有简单的解决方法，

but what I'm saying to you is that we neglect this problem

但是我要对你们说的是我们忽略了这个问题

at our own peril.

才导致危险发生在我们身上。

So, in 1998, along with my mentors

所以在1998年时，我和我的导师们

Don Burke and Colonel Mpoudi-Ngole,

唐.伯克以及上校麻破蒂-尼古乐，

we went to actually start this work

我们就开始在中非展开这项工作

in Central Africa, to work with hunters

与捕猎者一起工作

in this part of the world.

一起在世界上的这个地方工作

And my job -- at that time I was a post-doctoral fellow,

而我的工作，在那时我只是个博士后而已，

and I was really tasked with setting this up.

我也确实为了这个项目的开展费尽心机。

So I said to myself, "OK, great --

所以我对自己说，“好吧，很好

we're gonna collect all kinds of specimens. We're gonna go to all these

我们要收集所以种群的标本。我们要

different locations. It's going to be wonderful."

去不同的地方。这将是很不错的。”

You know, I looked at the map; I picked out 17 sites;

你知道，我看了一下地图，我挑选了17个地点，

I figured, no problem.

我想，没有问题。

(Laughter)

笑声

Needless to say, I was drastically wrong.

不用说，我大错特错了。

This is challenging work to do.

这是一项有挑战性的工作

Fortunately, I had and continue to have

幸运的是，我以前拥有，以后也会继续拥有

an absolutely wonderful team of colleagues and collaborators in my own team,

一支同事和合作者的完美团队，

and that's the only way that this work can really occur.

这也是开展这项工作的唯一办法。

We have a whole range of challenges about this work.

对此项工作，我们要面临很多挑战。

One of them is just obtaining trust

其中的一个就是

from individuals that we work with in the field.

要取得我们与之工作的人们的信任。

The person you see on the right hand side is Paul DeLong-Minutu.

你看到在你右手边的那个人是保罗.德朗.米奴图。

He's one of the best communicators that I've really ever dealt with.

他是我曾经接触过最好的沟通者之一。

When I arrived I didn't speak a word of French,

当我到那里时，我不会说法语，

and I still seemed to understand what it was he was saying.

但是我似乎明白他在说什么

Paul worked for years

保罗已经在

on the Cameroonian national radio and television,

喀麦隆国家电台和电视工作好几年，

and he spoke about health issues. He was a health correspondent.

他谈论的是健康问题。他是一个健康方面的记者。®

So we figured we'd hire this person -- when we got there he could

所以我们就想要请这个人，这样当我们到喀麦隆的时候，

be a great communicator.

他将会是一个很不错的交流者。

When we would get to these rural villages, though, what we found out

当我们到达这些村落的时候，我们却发现

is that no one had television,

没有人有电视机，

so they wouldn't recognize his face.

所以他们根本不认识他。

But -- when he began to speak

但是当他开始说话时

they would actually recognize his voice from the radio.

他们就能知道这是电台里的声音。

And this was somebody who had incredible

这里有些人有着不可置信的能力

potential to spread aspects of our message,

来传播我们的信息，

whether it be with regards to wildlife conservation

不论是野生动物保护

or health prevention.

还是健康疾病预防。

Often we run into obstacles. This is us coming back from

我们经常会遇到麻烦。这是我们从

one of these very rural sites,

其中的一个村落里回来，

with specimens from 200 individuals

带着200个人的血液样本

that we needed to get back to the lab within 48 hours.

我们需要将这些标本在48小时之内送回实验室。

I like to show this shot -- this is

我想给大家展示一下，这是

Ubald Tamoufe, who's the lead

阿布德.他莫夫，他是

investigator in our Cameroon site.

我们喀麦隆实验基地的主要调查者。

Ubald laughs at me when I show this photo

当我给他看这张照片时，他还朝我大笑

because of course you can't see his face.

当然你看不到他的脸。

But the reason I like to show the shot

但是我想展示这张照片的原因就是

is because you can see that he's about to solve this problem.

因为你可以看到他要解决这个问题。

(Laughter)

笑声

Which -- which he did, which he did.

这个，这个就是他做的。这个就是他做的。

Just a few quick before and after shots.

就在照之前和照之后的很快的时间里。

This was our laboratory before.

这是我们以前的实验室。

This is what it looks like now.

这是现在的样子。

Early on, in order to ship our specimens,

早些时候，为了海运我们的标本，

we had to have dry ice. To get dry ice we had to go

我们不得不用干冰。为了得到干冰，我们不得不

to the breweries -- beg, borrow, steal to get these folks to give it to us.

去酿酒厂，祈求他们借给我们干冰，甚至去偷干冰。

Now we have our own liquid nitrogen.

现在我们已经有我们自己的液体氮了。

I like to call our laboratory the coldest place in Central Africa -- it might be.

我喜欢将我们的实验室称作中非最冷的地方，或许它是吧。

And here's a shot of me, this is the before shot of me.

这是我的照片，这是照相之前的我。

(Laughter)

笑声

No comment.

无可奉告。

So what happened? So during the 10 years that we've been doing

那么发生什么了？在这10年里，我们一直在做的就是

this work, we actually surprised ourselves.

这项工作，我们实际给我们自己很多惊喜。

We made a number of discoveries.

我们做了很多发现。

And what we've found is that if you look in the right place,

我们的发现是，如果你看对了，

you can actually monitor the flow

你就可以监控

of these viruses into human populations.

这些病毒向人类传播的流动过程。

That gave us a tremendous amount of hope.

这给了我们很大的希望。

What we've found is a whole range of new viruses in these individuals,

我们已经发现的是这些人身上一系列的新型病毒，

including new viruses in the same group

包括和HIV病毒同种类型的新病毒

as HIV -- so, brand new retroviruses.

所以是全新的反转录病毒。

And let's face it, any new retrovirus in the

让我们来看一下，任何存在于人类身上的

human population -- it's something we should be aware of.

反转录病毒，就是我们应该意识到的事情。

It's something we should be following. It's not something

这是我们应该密切关注的事情。

that we should be surprised by.

这不是我们应该感到惊讶的事情。

Needless to say in the past

不用说在过去

these viruses entering into these rural communities

侵入这些村落社区的病毒

might very well have gone extinct.

可能已经销声匿迹了。

That's no longer the case. Logging roads provide access to urban areas.

事情已经不是这样子了。伐木道路建设给这些村落提供了进城的的机会。

And critically, what happens in central Africa

发生在中非的事情

doesn't stay in Central Africa.

不会永远在中非。

So, once we discovered that it was really possible

所以一旦我们发现如果真有这种可能

that we could actually do this monitoring,

我们可以做此监控的话

we decided to move this from research, to

就决定从这项研究继续进行下去，

really attempt to phase up to a global monitoring effort.

真正的将全世界的努力融合到一起。

Through generous support and partnership

通过人们大量的支持

scientifically with Google.org and the Skoll Foundation,

和与谷歌公司，史科尔基金会科学的合作，

we were able to start the Global Viral Forecasting Initiative

我们就可以开始进行全球病毒预防行动

and begin work in four different sites

然后开始在非洲和亚洲的

in Africa and Asia.

四个不同的地点开始工作。

Needless to say, different populations from different parts of the world

不用说，世界不同地方的不同人群

have different sorts of contact.

都有不同程度的接触。

So it's not just hunters in Central Africa.

所以不仅仅是中非的捕猎人。

It's also working in live animal markets --

这也可以在活动物市场进行，

these wet markets -- which is exactly the place where

这些市场就是亚洲SARS病毒

SARS emerged in Asia.

出现的那个地方。

But really, this is just the beginning from our perspective.

但是这就是我们目标的开始。

Our objective right now, in addition to

我们现在的目标，除了

deploying to these sites and getting everything moving,

利用这些基地，并开始着手开始一切工作，

is to identify new partners

就是找到新的合作者，

because we feel like this effort needs to be extended

因为我们感觉我们对病毒热点问题的努力需要进一步延伸

to probably 20 or more sites throughout the world -- to viral hotspots --

到世界上大约20个或超过20个基地

because really the idea here is to cast an incredibly wide net

因为这个想法真的就可以建立起一张难以置信的巨大的网络，

so that we can catch these things, ideally,

这样，理想上来说，我们就可以捕捉到这些信息，

before they make it to blood banks,

之后血液就可以转到血库，

sexual networks, airplanes. And that's really our objective.

性网络，以及飞机上。这才是我们的目标。

There was a time not very long ago

有不长的一段时间，

when the discovery of unknown organisms

我们发现了一种未知的生物

was something that held incredible awe for us.

这是一种让我们非常害怕的东西。

It had potential to really change the way that we saw ourselves,

它确实改变了我们看待自己的方式，

and thought about ourselves.

让我们思考一下自己。

Many people, I think, on our planet right now

我觉得现在地球上的很多人

despair, and they think

都很绝望，他们认为

we've reached a point where we've discovered most of the things.

我们已经达到了发现大多数东西的地步。

I'm going tell you right now: please don't despair.

我现在可以告诉你：请不要绝望。

If an intelligent extra-terrestrial

如果一个聪明的天外来客

was taxed with writing the encyclopedia of life on our planet,

因在我们地球上编写生活的大百科全书而被收税的话，

27 out of 30 of these volumes

30卷中会有27卷

would be devoted to bacteria and virus,

讲述细菌和病毒，

with just a few of the volumes left

只有很少的几卷

for plants, fungus and animals,

讲述植物，真菌和动物

humans being a footnote;

人类的内容只是补充说明而已

interesting footnote but a footnote nonetheless.

这会是一个很有趣的脚注，但是仅此而已。

This is honestly the most exciting period

老实说，这将是最令人兴奋的时代

ever for the study of unknown life forms on our planet.

因为这是关于我们地球上未知生活方式的探索和研究。

The dominant things that exist here

对于这种已经存在的占我们生活主导地位的事情

we know almost nothing about.

我们几乎什么也不知道。

And yet finally, we have the tools, which will allow us to actually explore that world

最后我们有工具可以让我们真正的去探索世界

and understand them.

认知世界。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢

(Applause)

掌声