Why we have virus outbreaks & how we can prevent them | Nathan Wolfe

Prevoditelj: Senzos Osijek Recezent: Tilen Pigac - EFZG

When most people think about the beginnings

Kad većina ljudi razmišlja o početku

of AIDS, they're gonna think back to the 1980s.

AIDS-a, sjetit će se 1980-ih godina.

And certainly, this was the decade in which we discovered AIDS

Naravno, to je bilo desetljeće u kojem smo otkrili AIDS

and the virus that causes it, HIV.

i virus koji ga izaziva, HIV.

But in fact this virus crossed over into humans many decades before,

Ali zapravo, ovaj virus prešao je na ljude mnogo desetljeća prije,

from chimpanzees, where the virus originated, into humans who hunt these apes.

s čimpanzi, odakle on i potječe, na ljude koji su lovili te čovjekolike majmune.

This photo was taken before the Great Depression

Ova je fotografija slikana prije Velike depresije

in Brazzaville, Congo.

u Brazzavilleu u Kongu.

At this time, there were thousands of individuals,

Već su tada tisuće osoba,

we think, that were infected with HIV.

barem tako mislimo, bile zaražene HIV-om.

So I have a couple of really important questions for you.

Imam nekoliko vrlo važnih pitanja za vas.

If this virus was in thousands

Ako je taj virus bio prisutan u tisućama

of individuals at this point,

osoba tada,

why was it the case that it took us until 1984

zašto smo ga tek 1984.

to be able to discover this virus?

otkrili?

OK now, more importantly,

Dobro, što je još važnije

had we been there in the '40s and '50s, '60s,

jest da smo bili ondje u 40-ima, 50-ima i 60-ima,

had we seen this disease, had we understood

da smo vidjeli tu bolest, da smo razumjeli

exactly what was going on with it, how might that have changed and completely

točno što se događa s njom, koliko bi to moglo promijeniti i potpuno

transformed the nature of the way this pandemic moved?

preoblikovati prirodu širenja te pandemije?

In fact, this is not unique to HIV. The vast majority of

Zapravo, to nije svojstveno samo HIV-u. Velika većina

viruses come from animals.

virusa dolazi od životinja.

And you can kind of think of this as a pyramid of this bubbling up of viruses

Možete to zamisliti kao piramidu uzlaznog prelaska virusa

from animals into human populations.

sa životinja na ljude.

But only at the very top of this pyramid do these things become completely human.

Ali samo na samom vrhu virusi postaju isključivo ljudski.

Nevertheless, we spend the vast majority

Unatoč tomu, potrošili smo veliku većinu

of our energy focused on this level of the pyramid,

svoje energije usredotočivši se samo na tu razinu piramide,

trying to tackle things that are already completely adapted to human beings,

pokušavajući obuhvatiti viruse koji su se već potpuno prilagodili ljudima,

that are going to be very very difficult to address --

s kojima će se biti vrlo, vrlo teško nositi -

as we've seen in the case of HIV.

kao što smo vidjeli na primjeru HIV-a.

So during the last 15 years,

Zadnjih 15 godina,

I've been working to actually study the earlier interface here --

proučavam ranije faze onoga -

what I've labeled "viral chatter," which was a term coined

što sam ovdje označio kao „virusno čavrljanje“. Taj je izraz osmislio

by my mentor Don Burke.

moj mentor Don Burke.

This is the idea that we can study the sort of

To je ideja da možemo proučavati

pinging of these viruses into human populations,

prijenos ovih virusa na ljudsku populaciju,

the movement of these agents over into humans;

kretanje ovih tvari na ljude i,

and by capturing this moment,

obuhvaćajući to kretanje,

we might be able to move to a situation where we can catch them early.

mogli bismo se pomaknuti na fazu u kojoj ih možemo rano uhvatiti.

OK, so this is a picture, and I'm going to show you

Dobro, ovo je slika, a pokazat ću vam

some pictures now from the field.

sad neke slike s terena.

This is a picture of a central African hunter.

Ovo je slika jednog srednjoafričkog lovca.

It's actually a fairly common picture.

To je zapravo uobičajeni prizor.

One of the things I want you to note from it

Ono što želim da uočite na njoj je

is blood -- that you see a tremendous amount of blood contact.

krv -- vidite ogromnu količinu krvnog kontakta.

This was absolutely key for us. This is a

Ovo je apsolutno ključno za nas. Ovo je

very intimate form of connection.

vrlo prisan oblik povezanosti.

So if we're going to study viral chatter, we need to

Ako bismo proučavali „virusno čavrljanje“, trebamo doći

get to these populations who have intensive contact with wild animals.

do ovih populacija koje imaju intenzivan kontakt s divljim životinjama.

And so we've been studying people like this individual.

Proučavali smo ljude poput ovog čovjeka.

We collect blood from them, other specimens.

Uzimali smo uzorke njihove krvi i druge uzorke.

We look at the diseases, which are in the animals as well as the humans.

Promatrali smo bolesti koje su prisutne i kod životinja i kod ljudi.

And ideally, this is going to allow us to catch these things

U idealnom slučaju, ovo će nam omogućiti da ih uhvatimo

early on, as they're moving over into human populations.

rano, za vrijeme prelaska na ljudsku populaciju.

And the basic objective of this work is not to just

Glavni cilj našeg rada nije samo

go out once and look at these individuals,

otići jednom na teren i pogledati ove pojedince,

but to establish thousands of individuals

nego pronaći tisuće pojedinaca

in these populations that we would monitor

iz tih populacija koje ćemo moći kontinuirano i

continuously on a regular basis.

redovito pratiti.

When they were sick, we would collect specimens from them.

Kad su bili bolesni, uzeli bismo njihove uzorke.

We would actually enlist them --

Angažirali bismo ih --

which we've done now -- to collect specimens from animals.

to smo i napravili -- da skupljaju životinjske uzorke.

We give them these little pieces of filter paper.

Damo im komadiće filtar papira.

When they sample from animals,

Kad uzimaju životinjske uzorke,

they collect the blood on the filter paper

skupljaju krv na filtar papir.

and this allows us to identify yet-unknown viruses from exactly the right animals --

To nam omogućuje da identificiramo dosad nepoznate viruse iz pravih životinja –

the ones that are actually being hunted.

upravo onih koje se love.

(Video) Narrator: Deep in a remote region of Cameroon,

(Video): Narator: Duboko u udaljenom dijelu Kameruna,

two hunters stalk their prey.

dva lovca vrebaju svoj plijen.

Their names are Patrice and Patee.

Zovu se Patrice i Patee.

They're searching for bush meat;

Traže divljač –

forest animals they can kill to feed their families.

šumske životinje koje će ubiti da bi nahranili svoje obitelji.

Patrice and Patee set out most days to go out hunting

Patrice i Patee skoro svaki dan idu u lov

in the forest around their homes.

u šumu koja okružuje njihove domove.

They have a series of traps, of snares that they've set up

Imaju niz zamki, klopke koje su postavili

to catch wild pigs, snakes, monkeys,

ne bi li ulovili divlje svinje, zmije, majmune,

rodents -- anything they can, really.

glodavce, zapravo, sve što mogu uloviti.

Patrice and Patee have been out for hours but found nothing.

Već su satima u lovu i nisu još ništa pronašli.

The animals are simply gone.

Životinja jednostavno nema.

We stop for a drink of water.

Stanemo popiti vode.

Then there is a rustle in the brush.

Začuje se šuštanje u grmlju.

A group of hunters approach,

Skupina lovaca prilazi.

their packs loaded with wild game.

Torbe su im pune divljači.

There's at least three viruses

Postoje barem tri virusa

that you know about, which are in this particular monkey.

za koje znamo, a prisutna su u ovom majmunu.

Nathan Wolfe: This species, yeah. And there's many many more pathogens

Nathan Wolfe: Ova vrsta, da. I postoje mnogi, mnogi drugi patogeni

that are present in these animals.

koji su prisutni u ovim životinjama.

These individuals are at specific risk,

Ovi pojedinci posebno su izloženi riziku,

particularly if there's blood contact, they're at risk for transmission

osobito ako postoji kontakt s krvi izloženi su riziku prijenosa,

and possibly infection with novel viruses.

a moguće su i infekcije novim virusima.

Narrator: As the hunters display their kills, something surprising happens.

Narator: Dok lovci pokazuju svoj ulov, nešto se zanimljivo dogodi.

They show us filter paper they've used to collect the animals' blood.

Pokazuju nam filtar papire koje su koristili za skupljanje životinjske krvi.

The blood will be tested for zoonotic viruses,

Krv će se testirati na zoonotične viruse,

part of a program Dr. Wolfe has spent years setting up.

što je dio programa koji dr. Wolfe godinama provodi.

NW: So this is from this animal right here,

NW: To je od ove životinje,

Greater Spot-Nosed Guenon.

velikog točkastonosnog gvenona.

Every person who has one of those filter papers has at least,

Svaka osoba koja ima jedan od ovih filtar papira barem je

at a minimum, been through our basic health education

prošla naš osnovni zdravstveni tečaj

about the risks associated with these activities,

o rizicima vezanim uz ove radnje,

which presumably, from our perspective,

što im, pretpostavljamo s našeg kuta gledišta,

gives them the ability to decrease their own risk,

daje sposobnost smanjenja vlastitog rizika,

and then obviously the risk to their families,

a zatim očito i rizika za svoje obitelji,

the village, the country, and the world.

selo, državu i svijet.

NW: OK, before I continue, I think it's important to take just a moment

NW: Dobro, prije nego što nastavim, mislim da je važno na trenutak

to talk about bush meat. Bush meat is the hunting of wild game.

progovoriti o lovu na divljač. To je lov na divlje životinje.

OK? And you can consider all sorts of different bush meat.

OK? Možete razmatrati sve vrste različite divljači.

I'm going to be talking about this.

Govorit ću o ovome.

When your children and grandchildren

Kad vam vaša djeca i unuci

sort of pose questions to you about this period of time,

postave pitanja o tom razdoblju,

one of the things they're gonna ask you,

jedna od stvari koju će vas pitati jest,

is how it was they we allowed some of our closest living relatives,

kako smo dopustili da neki od naših najbližih živućih srodnika,

some of the most valuable and endangered species

neki od najvrjednijih i najugroženijih vrsta

on our planet, to go extinct because we

na planetu izumru zato što se

weren't able to address some of the issues

nismo mogli nositi sa

of poverty in these parts of the world.

siromaštvom u tim dijelovima svijeta.

But in fact that's not the only question they're going to ask you about this.

Zapravo to nije jedino pitanje koje će vam postaviti o tome.

They're also going to ask you the question

Pitat će vas i zašto,

that when we knew that this was the way that HIV entered

ako smo znali da je to način na koji je HIV ušao

into the human population,

u ljudsku populaciju,

and that other diseases had the potential to enter like this,

i da druge bolesti također imaju potencijal ući na isti način,

why did we let these behaviors continue?

zašto smo dopustili nastavak ovakvog ponašanja?

Why did we not find some other solution to this?

Zašto nismo pronašli neko drugo rješenje za to?

They're going to say, in regions of profound

Reći će, u regijama duboke

instability throughout the world,

nestabilnosti širom svijeta,

where you have intense poverty, where populations are growing

gdje imate strašno siromaštvo, gdje populacije rastu

and you don't have sustainable resources like this,

i nemate održivih izvora kao ovdje,

this is going to lead to food insecurity.

to će dovesti do štetnosti hrane.

But they're also going to ask you probably a different question.

Ali također će vas pitati i drugačije pitanje.

It's one that I think we all need to ask ourselves,

Ono koje mislim da se svi trebamo pitati,

which is, why we thought the responsibility rested with this individual here.

a to je, zašto smo mislili da odgovornost leži na ovoj osobi ovdje.

Now this is the individual -- you can see just right up over his right shoulder --

Ovo je osoba – možete vidjeti gore preko njegova desnog ramena –

this is the individual that hunted the monkey

to je osoba koja je lovila majmuna

from the last picture that I showed you.

sa prošle slike, koju sam vam pokazao.

OK, take a look at his shirt.

U redu, pogledajte njegovu košulju.

You know, take a look at his face.

Pogledajte njegovo lice.

Bush meat is one of the central crises,

Izlov divljih životinja jedna je od središnjih kriza

which is occurring in our population right now,

koja se odvija u našoj populaciji trenutno,

in humanity, on this planet.

u čovječanstvu, na ovom planetu.

But it can't be the fault of somebody like this.

Ali ne može biti krivica nekog ovakvoga.

OK? And solving it cannot be his responsibility alone.

U redu? I njeno rješavanje ne može biti samo njegova odgovornost.

There's no easy solutions,

Nema lakih rješenja,

but what I'm saying to you is that we neglect this problem

ali ono što vam govorim jest da zanemarujemo ovaj problem

at our own peril.

na vlastiti rizik.

So, in 1998, along with my mentors

Dakle, 1998., sa svojim mentorima

Don Burke and Colonel Mpoudi-Ngole,

Donom Burkeom i Pukovnikom Mpoudi-Ngoleom,

we went to actually start this work

otišli smo stvarno započeti taj posao

in Central Africa, to work with hunters

u središnju Afriku, raditi sa lovcima

in this part of the world.

iz ovog dijela svijeta.

And my job -- at that time I was a post-doctoral fellow,

I moj posao – u to vrijeme bio sam postdoktorant,

and I was really tasked with setting this up.

zadužen za to da stvari normalno funkcioniraju.

So I said to myself, "OK, great --

Stoga sam si rekao: „U redu, super –

we're gonna collect all kinds of specimens. We're gonna go to all these

skupit ćemo razne vrste uzoraka. Otići ćemo na sve te

different locations. It's going to be wonderful."

različite lokacije. Bit će predivno.“

You know, I looked at the map; I picked out 17 sites;

Znate, pogledao sam na kartu, odabrao 17 lokacija i

I figured, no problem.

zaključio da nema problema.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Needless to say, I was drastically wrong.

Bespotrebno je reći da sam bio potpuno u krivu.

This is challenging work to do.

Ovo je posao koji predstavlja pravi izazov.

Fortunately, I had and continue to have

Srećom, imao sam i nastavio imati

an absolutely wonderful team of colleagues and collaborators in my own team,

predivan tim kolega i suradnika u svom timu,

and that's the only way that this work can really occur.

i to je jedini način na koji se ovaj posao zapravo može obavljati.

We have a whole range of challenges about this work.

Imamo niz izazova u ovom poslu.

One of them is just obtaining trust

Jedan od njih je zadržavanje povjerenja osoba

from individuals that we work with in the field.

s kojima radimo na ovom području.

The person you see on the right hand side is Paul DeLong-Minutu.

Osoba koju vidite na desnoj strani je Paul DeLong-Minutu.

He's one of the best communicators that I've really ever dealt with.

On je jedan od najboljih razgovornika s kojima sam ikad radio.

When I arrived I didn't speak a word of French,

Kada sam došao, nisam znao ni riječ francuskog,

and I still seemed to understand what it was he was saying.

ali sam uspijevao razumjeti što je govorio.

Paul worked for years

Paul je godinama radio

on the Cameroonian national radio and television,

na kamerunskom državnom radiju i televiziji

and he spoke about health issues. He was a health correspondent.

i govorio je o zdravstvenim problemima. Bio je dopisnik za zdravstvo.

So we figured we'd hire this person -- when we got there he could

Stoga smo zaključili da ćemo zaposliti tu osobu, kad dođemo tamo moći će

be a great communicator.

odlično komunicirati.

When we would get to these rural villages, though, what we found out

Kada bismo stigli u ta nerazvijena sela, otkrili bismo doduše

is that no one had television,

da nitko nema televizor,

so they wouldn't recognize his face.

pa neće prepoznati njegovo lice.

But -- when he began to speak

Ali – kad bi počeo pričati

they would actually recognize his voice from the radio.

prepoznali bi njegov glas s radija.

And this was somebody who had incredible

I to je bio netko sa nevjerojatnim

potential to spread aspects of our message,

potencijalom da širi različita gledišta naše poruke,

whether it be with regards to wildlife conservation

bez obzira radilo se o očuvanju divljine

or health prevention.

ili o zdravstvenoj prevenciji.

Often we run into obstacles. This is us coming back from

Često nailazimo na prepreke. Ovo smo mi dok se vraćamo

one of these very rural sites,

iz jednog od tih vrlo zabačenih područja,

with specimens from 200 individuals

sa uzorcima od 200 pojedinaca

that we needed to get back to the lab within 48 hours.

koje smo morali donijeti u laboratorij u roku od 48 sati.

I like to show this shot -- this is

Volim pokazivati ovu fotografiju - ovo je

Ubald Tamoufe, who's the lead

Ubald Tamoufe, glavni

investigator in our Cameroon site.

istraživač na našem kamerunskom lokalitetu.

Ubald laughs at me when I show this photo

Ubald mi se smije kada pokazujem ovu fotografiju,

because of course you can't see his face.

jer naravno, ne može se vidjeti njegovo lice.

But the reason I like to show the shot

Ali razlog zašto volim pokazivati ovu fotografiju je taj

is because you can see that he's about to solve this problem.

što možete vidjeti da se sprema riješiti ovaj problem.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

Which -- which he did, which he did.

Što – što je i napravio. Što je i napravio.

Just a few quick before and after shots.

Samo nekoliko brzih prije i poslije snimaka.

This was our laboratory before.

Ovo je bio naš laboratorij prije.

This is what it looks like now.

Ovako izgleda sada.

Early on, in order to ship our specimens,

U početku, kako bismo poslali naše uzorke,

we had to have dry ice. To get dry ice we had to go

morali smo imati suhi led. Da bismo dobili suhi led morali smo ići

to the breweries -- beg, borrow, steal to get these folks to give it to us.

u pivovare – moliti, posuđivati, krasti da bismo naveli ove ljude da nam ga daju.

Now we have our own liquid nitrogen.

Sad imamo naš vlastiti tekući dušik.

I like to call our laboratory the coldest place in Central Africa -- it might be.

Volim zvati naš laboratorij najhladnijim mjestom u središnjoj Africi – mogao bi biti.

And here's a shot of me, this is the before shot of me.

I evo i slika mene. Ovo je slika prije.

(Laughter)

(Smijeh)

No comment.

Bez komentara.

So what happened? So during the 10 years that we've been doing

Dakle, što se dogodilo? Tijekom 10 godina dok smo ovo radili,

this work, we actually surprised ourselves.

zapravo smo iznenadili same sebe.

We made a number of discoveries.

Ostvarili smo niz otkrića.

And what we've found is that if you look in the right place,

I što smo otkrili jest da ako gledate na pravom mjestu,

you can actually monitor the flow

možete zapravo nadgledati tijek

of these viruses into human populations.

ovih virusa u ljudsku populaciju.

That gave us a tremendous amount of hope.

To nam je dalo ogromnu količinu nade.

What we've found is a whole range of new viruses in these individuals,

Ono što smo našli jest ogroman raspon novih virusa u ovim pojedincima,

including new viruses in the same group

uključujući i nove viruse iz iste grupe

as HIV -- so, brand new retroviruses.

iz koje je i HIV, dakle posve novi retrovirusi.

And let's face it, any new retrovirus in the

A suočimo se s tim, svaki novi retrovirus u

human population -- it's something we should be aware of.

ljudskoj populaciji – nešto je čega trebamo biti svjesni.

It's something we should be following. It's not something

Nešto je što bi trebali slijediti. Nije nešto

that we should be surprised by.

što bi nas trebalo iznenaditi.

Needless to say in the past

Nepotrebno je reći da su mnoge ruralne zajednice u prošlosti,

these viruses entering into these rural communities

zbog ulaska ovih virusa u njih,

might very well have gone extinct.

izumrle.

That's no longer the case. Logging roads provide access to urban areas.

To više nije slučaj. Prometnice pružaju pristup urbanim područjima.

And critically, what happens in central Africa

I presudno, što se dogodi u središnjoj Africi,

doesn't stay in Central Africa.

ne ostaje u središnjoj Africi.

So, once we discovered that it was really possible

Dakle, kad smo otkrili da je zapravo moguće

that we could actually do this monitoring,

ostvariti ovaj nadzor,

we decided to move this from research, to

odlučili smo prebaciti ovo iz istraživanja

really attempt to phase up to a global monitoring effort.

u stvarni pokušaj da unaprijedimo to u globalni nadzorni pokušaj.

Through generous support and partnership

Kroz velikodušne potpore i znanstvena partnerstva

scientifically with Google.org and the Skoll Foundation,

sa Google.org i Skoll zakladom

we were able to start the Global Viral Forecasting Initiative

mogli smo započeti globalnu inicijativu za predviđanje virusa

and begin work in four different sites

i počeli rad na 4 različita mjesta

in Africa and Asia.

u Africi i Aziji.

Needless to say, different populations from different parts of the world

Naravno, različite populacije iz različitih dijelova svijeta

have different sorts of contact.

u različitim su doticajima.

So it's not just hunters in Central Africa.

Dakle, nisu samo lovci u središnjoj Africi.

It's also working in live animal markets --

Tu je također rad na tržnicama živim životinjama -

these wet markets -- which is exactly the place where

ove mokre tržnice – što je zapravo i mjesto gdje je

SARS emerged in Asia.

SARS izbio u Aziji.

But really, this is just the beginning from our perspective.

Ali zapravo, iz naše perspektive ovo je tek početak.

Our objective right now, in addition to

Naš trenutni cilj je, u dodatku

deploying to these sites and getting everything moving,

razmještanja na ova mjesta i pokretanja svega,

is to identify new partners

je traženje novih partnera

because we feel like this effort needs to be extended

zato što mislimo da ovaj trud treba biti proširen

to probably 20 or more sites throughout the world -- to viral hotspots --

na vjerojatno 20 ili više mjesta na svijetu – na virusna žarišta –

because really the idea here is to cast an incredibly wide net

zato što je prava ideja da stvorimo nevjerojatno široku mrežu,

so that we can catch these things, ideally,

tako da možemo uhvatiti ovakve stvari, idealno,

before they make it to blood banks,

prije nego što dođu do banaka krvi,

sexual networks, airplanes. And that's really our objective.

seksualnih mreža, zrakoplova. I to je upravo naš cilj.

There was a time not very long ago

Postojalo je vrijeme, ne tako daleko

when the discovery of unknown organisms

u prošlosti kada je otkriće nepoznatih organizama

was something that held incredible awe for us.

bilo nešto što je izazivalo strahopoštovanje kod nas.

It had potential to really change the way that we saw ourselves,

Imalo je potencijal da promijeni način na koji vidimo jedni druge

and thought about ourselves.

i mislimo o sebi samima.

Many people, I think, on our planet right now

Mnogi ljudi, mislim, na našem planetu, upravo sada,

despair, and they think

očajavaju, i misle da smo

we've reached a point where we've discovered most of the things.

došli do točke kad smo otkrili gotovo sve.

I'm going tell you right now: please don't despair.

Reći ću vam upravo sada: nemojte očajavati.

If an intelligent extra-terrestrial

Kada bi inteligentni vanzemaljac

was taxed with writing the encyclopedia of life on our planet,

dobio zadatak da napiše enciklopediju života na našem planetu,

27 out of 30 of these volumes

27 od 30 svezaka

would be devoted to bacteria and virus,

bili bi posvećeni bakterijama i virusima,

with just a few of the volumes left

a svega nekoliko svezaka bilo bi posvećeno

for plants, fungus and animals,

biljkama, gljivama i životinjama -

humans being a footnote;

ljudi bi bili samo fusnota –

interesting footnote but a footnote nonetheless.

zanimljiva fusnota, ali ipak fusnota.

This is honestly the most exciting period

Ovo je iskreno najuzbudljivije razdoblje

ever for the study of unknown life forms on our planet.

do sada za proučavanje nepoznatih oblika života na našem planetu.

The dominant things that exist here

O dominantnim bićima koja ovdje postoje

we know almost nothing about.

ne znamo skoro ništa.

And yet finally, we have the tools, which will allow us to actually explore that world

I na kraju, imamo oruđe koje će nam dopustiti da zapravo istražimo

and understand them.

i shvatimo taj svijet.

Thank you very much.

Hvala vam najljepša.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)