Nathan Myhrvold: Could this laser zap malaria?

翻译人员: Yunlin WU 校对人员: Chaoran Yu

We invent.

我们是发明家。

My company invents

我们的公司发明

all kinds of new technology

各式各样的新科技，

in lots of different areas.

它们涉及各个领域。

And we do that for a couple of reasons.

我们发明是有目的的。

We invent for fun --

首先是为乐趣。

invention is a lot of fun to do --

发明是一件很有意思的事儿。

and we also invent for profit.

其次是利益。

The two are related because

这两者是相互关联的

the profit actually takes long enough that if it isn't fun,

因为利益的攫取总是很耗时，假若过程不好玩

you wouldn't have the time to do it.

人们也不会抽时间来做。

So we do this

所以我们所做的

fun and profit-oriented inventing

大部分发明

for most of what we do,

是趣味和利益相结合的，

but we also have a program where we invent for humanity --

另外我们还有一些发明计划服务于人道主义

where we take some of our best inventors,

我们召集最好的发明家

and we say, "Are there problems

问他们，“有没有什么好办法

where we have a good idea for solving a problem the world has?" --

来解决世界上存在的那些问题？”

and to solve it in the way we try to solve problems,

然后用我们的方式来解决

which is with dramatic, crazy,

也就是这种戏剧性的，看似疯狂的

out-of-the-box solutions.

非凡创意。

Bill Gates is one of those smartest guys of ours

比尔盖茨是我们当中最聪明的一个

that work on these problems

他就致力于这样的工作

and he also funds this work, so thank you.

而且他也是这份工作的赞助人，我在此感谢您。

So I'm going to briefly discuss

现在我要简要汇报下

a couple of problems that we have

我们当下所要面对的问题

and a couple of problems where

以及那些我们已经想到

we've got some solutions underway.

一些解决方案的问题。

Vaccination is one of the

疫苗是一种

key techniques in public health,

公共医疗的重要科技，

a fantastic thing.

非常精彩的发明。

But in the developing world a lot of vaccines

但是在发展中国家很多疫苗

spoil before they're administered,

在被使用前就坏掉了。

and that's because they need to be kept cold.

这是因为疫苗需要冷藏。

Almost all vaccines need to be kept at refrigerator temperatures.

几乎所有的疫苗都要以冷藏温度保存。

They go bad very quickly if you don't,

如果温度不够低，疫苗很快就会坏掉。

and if you don't have stable power grid, this doesn't happen,

而如果没有稳定的电力供应，就不能维持低温，

so kids die.

最终儿童会死掉。

It's not just the loss of the vaccine that matters;

这里不光光是损失了疫苗的问题

it's the fact that those kids don't get vaccinated.

重要的是孩子们没办法注射疫苗。

This is one of the ways that

这是其中一种

vaccines are carried:

携带疫苗的方法。

These are Styrofoam chests. These are being carried by people,

这些是聚苯乙烯泡沫箱。由人来携带，

but they're also put on the backs of pickup trucks.

或是用卡车装运。

We've got a different solution.

我们想了另外一个解决办法

Now, one of these Styrofoam chests

现在，一个聚苯乙烯泡沫箱

will last for about four hours with ice in it.

可以在装有冰的情况下维持四小时的低温。

And we thought, well, that's not really good enough.

那么我们想，这样，也许并不够好。

So we made this thing.

所以我们做了这个。

This lasts six months with no power;

它可以在无能源的情况下维持运作六个月，

absolutely zero power,

绝对的零能源

because it loses less

因为它的能耗超低

than a half a watt.

连半瓦都不到。

Now, this is our second generations prototype.

现在这个是我们的二代产品

The third generation prototype is, right now,

第三代雏形目前

in Uganda being tested.

正在乌干达接受测试。

Now, the reason we were able to come up with this

我们能够想到这样的方法

is two key ideas:

主要是因为两点

One is that this is similar to a cryogenic Dewar,

首先这与低温真空瓶的原理相似

something you'd keep liquid nitrogen or liquid helium in.

你可以把液态氮或液态氦放在里面。

They have incredible insulation,

他们有神奇的隔热作用

so let's put some incredible insulation here.

所以，我们把一些神奇的隔热物放到里面。

The other idea is kind of interesting,

另外一点十分有趣

which is, you can't reach inside anymore.

那就是，你不能再把手伸到瓶子里

Because if you open it up and reach inside,

因为一旦你把瓶子打开把手伸进去

you'd let the heat in, the game would be over.

热量也随之进入到瓶子里，瓶子的作用就失去了

So the inside of this thing actually looks like a Coke machine.

所以从这点看，这东西事实上就像是一个可乐售卖机。

It vends out little individual vials.

将小瓶逐个售出。

So a simple idea,

这是一个简单的想法

which we hope is going to change the way vaccines are distributed

我们希望这个想法可以改变疫苗

in Africa and around the world.

在非洲和全球的分送方式。

We'll move on to malaria.

我们接下来说说疟疾

Malaria is one of the great public health problems.

疟疾是重大的公共健康问题之一。

Esther Duflo talked a little bit about this.

埃斯特·迪弗洛也提到过疟疾。

Two hundred million people a year.

每年有2亿5千万人感染该病。

Every 43 seconds a child in Africa dies;

每43秒就有一个非洲的小孩死于该病。

27 will die during my talk.

在我讲话的这点时间就有27个人会死亡。

And there's no way for us here in this country

我们身处在这个国家，我们没有办法

to grasp really what that means to the people involved.

真正理解到这些数字对患病的人来说到底意味着什么。

Another comment of Esther's

埃斯特讲到的另一点是

was that we react when there's

我们会对

a tragedy like Haiti,

像发生在海地那样的灾难作出反应，

but that tragedy is ongoing.

但疟疾是一场持续的灾难。

So what can we do about it?

那么我们可以对此做些什么呢？

Well, there are a lot of things people have tried

人们已经花了好多年时间

for many years for solving malaria.

尝试找出解决疟疾的方法。

You can spray; the problem is there are environmental issues.

你可以用喷雾，但这牵涉到环境污染的问题。

You can try to treat people and create awareness.

你可以尝试治疗病人并且让他们建立预防疾病的意识。

That's great, except the places that have malaria really bad,

这确实很好，只是在那些疟疾肆虐最严重的地方

they don't have health care systems.

通常都没有医疗保健系统。

A vaccine would be a terrific thing,

疫苗原本会是一个非常好的东西，

only they don't work yet.

但现在还没找到有效的疫苗。

People have tried for a long time. There are a couple of interesting candidates.

人们已经尝试了很久。当中有一些很有潜质的候选疫苗。

It's a very difficult thing to make a vaccine for.

疟疾是一种很难找到与之对抗的疫苗的疾病。

You can distribute bed nets,

你可以分发蚊帐，

and bed nets are very effective if you use them.

如果人们使用蚊帐的话，这会是一个很有效的方式。

You don't always use them for that. People fish with them.

但人们并不把蚊帐用于预防疟疾。人们用蚊帐来捕鱼

They don't always get to everyone.

而且不是所有人都能有蚊帐。

And bed nets

而且蚊帐

have an effect on the epidemic,

虽然说是预防疾病流行的有效方式

but you're never going to make it extinct with bed nets.

但它们并不能使疾病消失。

Now, malaria is

所以说，疟疾是

an incredibly complicated disease.

一种极其复杂的疾病

We could spend hours going over this.

我们可以花数小时来讨论这个疾病。

It's got this sort of soap opera-like lifestyle;

该病的病菌有着肥皂剧般的生活方式。

they have sex, they burrow into your liver,

它们会交配。它们会在你的肝里挖洞。

they tunnel into your blood cells ...

它们会打通通道进入你的血液细胞。

it's an incredibly complicated disease,

疟疾是一种极其复杂的疾病，

but that's actually one of the things we find interesting about it

而这正是我们对其感兴趣的其中一个原因

and why we work on malaria:

也是为什么我们在研究疟疾。

There's a lot of potential ways in.

现在有很多防治该病的方法。

One of those ways might be better diagnosis.

其中一个可能会是迅速诊断仪。

So we hope this year

所以我们希望能在今年

to prototype each of these devices.

能够作出所有这些设备的雏形。

One does an automatic malaria diagnosis

其中一个可以自动诊断疟疾

in the same way that a diabetic's glucose meter works:

这与糖尿病葡萄糖计量器的工作原理是相同的。

You take a drop of blood,

你取出一滴血

you put it in there and it automatically tells you.

放在机器里，就可以自动告诉你诊断结果。

Today, you need to do a complicated laboratory procedure,

但是现在，你需要做一个繁复的实验室检验

create a bunch of microscope slides

制作出一堆显微镜载玻片

and have a trained person examine it.

还需要受过训练的人去做检验。

The other thing is, you know,

大家知道，另外一点就是

it would be even better if you didn't have to draw the blood.

如果不需要抽血就更好了。

And if you look through the eye,

如果你通过观察眼睛

or you look at the vessels on the white of the eye,

或者观察白眼球部分的血管，

in fact, you may be able to do this

事实上，你可以这么做

directly, without drawing any blood at all,

这就可以直接作出诊断而不需要抽取任何的血，

or through your nail beds.

又或者可以通过甲床来作出诊断。

Because if you actually look through your fingernails, you can see blood vessels,

因为事实上你可以通过你的指甲看到血管。

and once you see blood vessels, we think we can see the malaria.

一旦能看到血管，我们认为就有可能看到疟疾。

We can see it because of this molecule

我们可以看出来是因为这种

called hemozoin.

叫作疟原虫色素的分子。

It's produced by the malaria parasite

它是由疟原虫产生的。

and it's a very interesting crystalline substance.

这是一种十分有趣的结晶质，

Interesting, anyway, if you're a solid-state physicist.

不论怎样，如果你是一个固体物理学家，你就会觉得它有趣。

There's a lot of cool stuff we can do with it.

我们可以用它做很多很酷的事情。

This is our femtosecond laser lab.

这是我们的飞秒级激光实验室。

So this creates pulses of light

这可以发射出持续一飞秒的

that last a femtosecond.

光脉冲。

That's really, really, really short.

那是非常非常非常短的时间。

This is a pulse of light that's

这是一束只有大概

only about one wavelength of light long,

一光波波长的脉冲。

so it's a whole bunch of photons

所以事实上就是一整束光子

all coming and hitting simultaneously.

同时发出并相互撞击。

It creates a very high peak power

从而产生一个非常高的峰值功率。

and it lets you do all kinds of interesting things;

可以让你做各种有趣的事情。

in particular, it lets you find hemozoin.

特别是可以让你发现疟原虫色素。

So here's an image of red blood cells,

大家可以看到血红细胞的图像。

and now we can actually map

现在我们事实上可以画出

where the hemozoin and where the malaria parasites are

疟原虫色素和疟原虫

inside those red blood cells.

在这些血红细胞里的分布。

And using both this technique

通过使用这两项技术

and other optical techniques,

以及其他光学技术，

we think we can make those diagnostics.

我们认为可以作出诊断。

We also have another hemozoin-oriented

我们还有另外一个针对疟原虫色素

therapy for malaria:

的疟疾治疗方法

a way, in acute cases, to actually

一个在急症发生时

take the malaria parasite and filter it out of the blood system.

可以实质地找到疟原虫并将其过滤出血液系统的方法

Sort of like doing dialysis,

类似于是在做透析，

but for relieving the parasite load.

但目的是减少疟原虫在血液中的数量。

This is our thousand-core supercomputer.

这是我们的千核超级电脑。

We're kind of software guys,

我们都是些搞软件的家伙，

and so nearly any problem that you pose,

所以面对你提出的几乎任何问题，

we like to try to solve with some software.

我们都喜欢尝试用一些软件去解决。

One of the problems that you have if you're trying to eradicate malaria

如果你想要消除或者减少疟疾

or reduce it

会遇到的其中一个问题是

is you don't know what's the most effective thing to do.

你不知道什么方法是最有效的。

Okay, we heard about bed nets earlier.

是的，我们之前谈到了蚊帐。

You spend a certain amount per bed net.

每床蚊帐都要花钱购买。

Or you could spray.

或者你可以用喷雾。

You can give drug administration.

你可以给他们药物。

There's all these different interventions

有很多种不同的方法。

but they have different kinds of effectiveness.

但这些方法的效果也不一样。

How can you tell?

那你怎样才能知道呢？

So we've created, using our supercomputer,

所以，我们用超级电脑制作出，

the world's best computer model of malaria,

全球最好的疟疾计算模式，

which we'll show you now.

我们现在就给大家展示一下。

We picked Madagascar.

我们选择马达加斯加。

We have every road,

我们收集了马达加斯加的每条路，

every village,

每条村庄，

every, almost, square inch of Madagascar.

几乎是该国的每一平方米的数据。

We have all of the precipitation data

我们还收集了所有的降雨量

and the temperature data.

以及气温的数据。

That's very important because the humidity and precipitation

这是很重要的信息，因为湿度和降雨量

tell you whether you've got

可以告诉你哪里

standing pools of water for the mosquitoes to breed.

积水成池，成为蚊子滋生的温床。

So that sets the stage on which you do this.

这样就设定好做这一步的程序。

You then have to introduce the mosquitoes,

然后要往程序里引入蚊子，

and you have to model that

并且在程序里建立蚊子

and how they come and go.

来去的模式。

Ultimately, it gives you this.

最后，电脑程序会给出这样的结果。

This is malaria spreading

这是在马达加斯加

across Madagascar.

散播的疟疾。

And this is this latter part of the rainy season.

这表示雨季的后期。

We're going to the dry season now.

我们现在看一下旱季的情况。

It nearly goes away in the dry season,

蚊子在旱季几乎绝迹。

because there's no place for the mosquitoes to breed.

因为没有地方让蚊子繁育。

And then, of course, the next year it comes roaring back.

当然，到了第二年，一切又卷土重来。

By doing these kinds of simulations,

通过做这些模拟实验，

we want to eradicate or control malaria

我们希望能够消灭或者控制疟疾

thousands of times in software

当然在真正运用到现实生活之前，

before we actually have to do it in real life;

我们会用软件做成千上万次的模拟。

to be able to simulate both the economic trade-offs --

为了模拟经济上的权衡——

how many bed nets versus how much spraying? --

也就是对比蚊帐和喷雾的花费

or the social trade-offs --

——以及社会上的权衡——

what happens if unrest breaks out?

也就是如果发生动乱该怎么办？

We also try to study our foe.

我们也尝试研究我们的“敌人”

This is a high-speed camera view

这是高速摄像机

of a mosquito.

下的蚊子。

And, in a moment,

很快

we're going to see a view of the airflow.

我们就会看到空气的流动。

Here, we're trying to visualize the airflow

在这里，我们想要利用

around the wings of the mosquito

激光照射出一些小粒子

with little particles we're illuminating with a laser.

从而看到蚊子翅膀附近的空气流动。

By understanding how mosquitoes fly,

通过研究蚊子的飞行方式

we hope to understand how to make them not fly.

我们希望能够找出禁止他们飞的方法。

Now, one of the ways you can make them not fly

当今，其中一种禁止蚊子飞的方法

is with DDT.

是使用农药DDT

This is a real ad.

这是一个真实的广告。

This is one of those things you just can't make up.

这是那些你没有办法编造的东西之一。

Once upon a time, this was the primary technique,

这曾经是基本的技术，

and, in fact, many countries got rid of malaria through DDT.

而且事实上，很多国家就是用DDT消灭了疟疾。

The United States did.

美国就是这么做的。

In 1935, there were 150,000 cases a year

在1935年，美国每年

of malaria in the United States,

有15万疟疾病例，

but DDT and a massive public health effort

但是通过使用DDT和大量的公共健康投入

managed to squelch it.

美国终于遏止了疾病的继续蔓延。

So we thought,

所以我们在想

"Well, we've done all these things that are focused on the Plasmodium,

我们已经针对疟原虫，也就是引起疟疾的寄生虫，

the parasite involved.

做了这么多的事情。

What can we do to the mosquito?

我们可以对蚊子做些什么呢？

Well, let's try to kill it with consumer electronics."

那么，让我们来试试用日常电器来杀死它们。

Now, that sounds silly,

现在这听上去或者很傻，

but each of these devices

但这里的每一个仪器

has something interesting in it that maybe you could use.

里面都有一些有趣的，或许可以加以利用的东西。

Your Blu-ray player has

你的蓝光播放器里

a very cheap blue laser.

有非常便宜的蓝色激光。

Your laser printer has a mirror galvanometer

你的激光打印机里有一个镜式电流计

that's used to steer a laser beam very accurately;

用它可以很准确地控制激光光束。

that's what makes those little dots on the page.

这正是为什么要在这里讲到这些小器材的原因。

And, of course, there's signal processing

当然，还有信号处理器

and digital cameras.

以及数码相机，

So what if we could put all that together

那么如果我们把这些东西组合起来

to shoot them out of the sky with lasers?

用它们向天空发射激光会怎样呢？

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

Now, in our company, this is what we call

现在，在我们公司，我们称之为

"the pinky-suck moment."

“粉红的倒霉一刻”

(Laughter)

（笑声）

What if we could do that?

我们能做到的话会怎样呢？

Now, just suspend disbelief for a moment,

现在，请暂时收起怀疑，

and let's think of what could happen

一起来想象一下

if we could do that.

如果我们真能做到会发生什么事情。

Well, we could protect very high-value targets like clinics.

看，我们可以保护像诊所那样的高价值目标。

Clinics are full of people that have malaria.

诊所里充满了患疟疾的病人。

They're sick, and so they're less able to defend themselves from the mosquitoes.

他们都生病了，所以他们抵御蚊子的能力也降低了。

You really want to protect them.

你真的希望能保护他们。

Of course, if you do that,

当然，如果能做到这一点，

you could also protect your backyard.

你同时也保护了你的后院。

And farmers could protect their crops

农民也可以保护他们那些打算

that they want to sell to Whole Foods

卖到全食（Whole Foods)超市的庄稼

because our photons

因为我们的光子

are 100 percent organic. (Laughter)

是百分之一百的有机物。

They're completely natural.

它们是纯天然的。

Now, it actually gets better than this.

其实我们能做的还能更好。

You could, if you're really smart,

如果你真的很聪明，你可以

you could shine a nonlethal laser on the bug

在你杀死这些虫子之前

before you zap it,

向它射出一束不具杀伤力的激光，

and you could listen to the wing beat frequency

你可以仔细听它扇动翅膀的频率，

and you could measure the size.

可以估计它的大小。

And then you could decide:

然后你可以决定

"Is this an insect I want to kill,

这到底是一只我要杀死

or an insect I don't want to kill?"

还是不想杀死的虫子？

Moore's law made computing cheap;

摩尔定律使计算机的使用成本降低

so cheap we can weigh

低至我们可以用计算机测量

the life of an individual insect

个体昆虫的重量

and decide thumbs up

从而决定是否该

or thumbs down. (Laughter)

按下（杀虫的）按钮。

Now, it turns out we only kill the female mosquitoes.

事实上，我们只需要杀死雌性的蚊子。

They're the only ones that are dangerous.

只有它们是有危险的。

Mosquitoes only drink blood

蚊子只有在吸血后

to lay eggs.

才能产卵。

Mosquitoes actually live ... their day-to-day nutrition

事实上，蚊子生存必需品—它们每天的营养

comes from nectar, from flowers --

来源于花蜜。

in fact, in the lab, we feed ours raisins --

事实上，在实验室里，我们用葡萄来喂它们

but the female needs the blood meal.

但是雌性的蚊子需要吸血。

So, this sounds really crazy, right?

怎样，这听起来很疯狂，是吗？

Would you like to see it?

你想要看吗？

Audience: Yeah!

（观众：想）

Nathan Myhrvold: Okay, so our legal department prepared a disclaimer,

好的，为此我们的法律部门准备了一份免责声明。

and here it is.

就是这份。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

Now, after thinking about this a little bit

然后，对此稍作考虑之后，

we thought, you know, it probably would be simpler

我们想，可能用非致命性的激光

to do this with a nonlethal laser.

来做这件事会更简单。

So, Eric Johanson, who built the device,

所以，艾里克·乔纳森，他做了这个仪器

actually, with parts from eBay;

事实上，有的部件是在eBAY上买回来的。

and Pablos Holman over here,

还有在那边的帕布罗斯·霍尔曼

he's got mosquitoes in the tank.

他把蚊子养在这个箱子里。

We have the device over here.

我们的仪器在这里。

And we're going to show you,

我们将要向大家展示。

instead of the kill laser,

我们不用杀伤性激光，

which will be a very brief, instantaneous pulse,

那是一种短暂，即时的脉冲

we're going to have a green laser pointer

而是用一种绿色激光指针

that's going to stay on the mosquito for, actually, quite a long period of time;

这个指针会在蚊子身上停留颇长的一段时间

otherwise, you can't see it very well.

否则你不能看得很清楚

Take it away Eric.

把它拿开，艾里克。

Eric Johanson: What we have here

艾里克·乔纳森：我们现在可以看到

is a tank on the other side of the stage.

在讲台的另一边有一个箱子。

And we have ... this computer screen

我们还有这个电脑屏幕

can actually see the mosquitoes as they fly around.

可以看到蚊子在里面飞行的真实情况。

And Pablos, if he stirs up our mosquitoes a little bit

还有帕布罗斯，如果他稍稍搅动一下

we can see them flying around.

我们就可以看到蚊子在里面飞来飞去。

Now, that's a fairly straightforward image processing routine,

接下来是一个很直接的常见的图像处理过程。

and let me show you how it works.

请让我告诉大家是怎样操作的。

Here you can see that the insects are being tracked

在这里你可以看到这些虫子

as they're flying around,

在飞来飞去的时候被跟踪定位

which is kind of fun.

这其实挺有趣。

Next we can actually light them up with a laser. (Laughter)

然后我们其实可以用激光照亮它们

Now, this is a low powered laser,

现在我们要用的是低功率激光

and we can actually pick up a wing-beat frequency.

我们事实上是要测量翅膀扇动的频率。

So you may be able to hear some mosquitoes flying around.

所以你可能会听到有些蚊子在周围飞

NM: That's a mosquito wing beat you're hearing.

内森·梅尔沃德：大家现在听到的是蚊子的翅膀扇动

EJ: Finally, let's see what this looks like.

艾里克·乔纳森：最后，我们来看看结果.

There you can see mosquitoes as they fly around, being lit up.

由于有激光照射，大家可以看到蚊子在飞来飞去.

This is slowed way down

这是放慢版

so that you have an opportunity to see what's happening.

以让大家有机会看清楚在发生的事情。

Here we have it running at high-speed mode.

这是用高速模式播放的效果。

So this system that was built for TED is here to illustrate

这是我们专门为TED设计的演示系统

that it is technically possible to actually deploy a system like this,

这证明了要开发这样的一个系统在技术上是可行的。

and we're looking very hard at how to make it

我们正在非常努力地大幅降低其使用成本

highly cost-effective to use in places like Africa and other parts of the world.

使其能够在非洲和世界上的其他国家使用。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）

NM: So it wouldn't be any fun to show you that

内森·梅尔沃德：如果不向大家演示我们用激光

without showing you what actually happens when we hit 'em.

射击它们时会发生什么事情，这次演示就一点都不有趣了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

(Laughter)

（笑声）

This is very satisfying.

这使人感到非常满足。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

This is one of the first ones we did.

这是我们做出的首批产品的其中之一

The energy's a little bit high here.

这里的能量有点过高了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

We'll loop around here in just a second, and you'll see another one.

我们会在这里稍作环绕，你会看到另一只。

Here's another one. Bang.

这是另一只。砰。

An interesting thing is, we kill them all the time;

有趣的是，我们总是把它们杀死

we've never actually gotten the wings to shut off in midair.

我们从未真正在半空中烧掉它们的翅膀。

The wing motor is very resilient.

翅膀的动力是很持久的

I mean, here we're blowing wings off

我的意思是，在这里，我们可以把翅膀吹掉

but the wing motor keeps all the way down.

但在翅膀掉下来的过程中，依然能转动。

So, that's what I have. Thanks very much.

以上就是我要呈现给大家的。非常感谢。

(Applause)

（鼓掌）