Nathan Myhrvold: Could this laser zap malaria?

譯者: Yuhfen Lin 審譯者: K. C. Peng

We invent.

我們發明，

My company invents

我的公司發明

all kinds of new technology

各種新的科技

in lots of different areas.

在各種不同的領域。

And we do that for a couple of reasons.

我們做發明有兩個理由

We invent for fun --

我們為好玩而發明

invention is a lot of fun to do --

發明是一件很好玩的事

and we also invent for profit.

我們還為了利潤而發明

The two are related because

這兩個理由是相關的

the profit actually takes long enough that if it isn't fun,

獲利需要夠長的時間，如果做起來不好玩

you wouldn't have the time to do it.

你就不會想花時間去做。

So we do this

所以我們為了

fun and profit-oriented inventing

又好玩又可以賺錢而發明

for most of what we do,

這占了大多數

but we also have a program where we invent for humanity --

但我們也有案件是為了人道而發明

where we take some of our best inventors,

在這些情況我們對我們最好的發明家說，

and we say, "Are there problems

我們問，有沒有那些問題

where we have a good idea for solving a problem the world has?" --

是我們能夠有好點子去解決世界上還存在的問題？

and to solve it in the way we try to solve problems,

而且在解決這些問題的過程中

which is with dramatic, crazy,

我們試著用些誇張的，瘋狂的，

out-of-the-box solutions.

跳脫框框外的解決方式。

Bill Gates is one of those smartest guys of ours

比爾蓋茲是我們當中之一最聰明的

that work on these problems

致力於解決這些問題的人

and he also funds this work, so thank you.

他同時也贊助這個計劃，謝謝您。

So I'm going to briefly discuss

所以我要開始簡短的敘述，

a couple of problems that we have

一兩個我們正在面對的問題

and a couple of problems where

和一兩個問題

we've got some solutions underway.

我們已經在某個程度上正在解決的過程上

Vaccination is one of the

疫苗接種是其中一個

key techniques in public health,

推動公共衛生的關鍵技術

a fantastic thing.

了不起的技術

But in the developing world a lot of vaccines

但是在發展中國家，很多的疫苗

spoil before they're administered,

在被使用前就壞掉了。

and that's because they need to be kept cold.

因為疫苗需要保持在低溫

Almost all vaccines need to be kept at refrigerator temperatures.

幾乎所有的疫苗都該存放在冷藏的溫度

They go bad very quickly if you don't,

不然的話很快就會壞掉

and if you don't have stable power grid, this doesn't happen,

如果沒有穩定的電源，幾乎沒辦法做到

so kids die.

所以兒童們死亡

It's not just the loss of the vaccine that matters;

重點不是損失了疫苗

it's the fact that those kids don't get vaccinated.

而是那些孩童沒有接種疫苗

This is one of the ways that

這是其中一種

vaccines are carried:

疫苗運送的方式

These are Styrofoam chests. These are being carried by people,

這些是保利龍箱。圖中這些箱子由人背著來運送

but they're also put on the backs of pickup trucks.

有些時候用卡車來運送這些箱子

We've got a different solution.

我們想出了一個不同的解決方法

Now, one of these Styrofoam chests

這些保利龍箱中的任何一個

will last for about four hours with ice in it.

裡頭放了冰塊，可以維持四個小時的低溫

And we thought, well, that's not really good enough.

我們想，四個小時是不夠的

So we made this thing.

所以我們去做了這個

This lasts six months with no power;

可以在沒有電源的情況下維持六個月低溫

absolutely zero power,

完全不需要任何能源

because it loses less

因為它損失

than a half a watt.

小於半瓦

Now, this is our second generations prototype.

這裡是我們第二代的雛形

The third generation prototype is, right now,

第三代的雛形現在

in Uganda being tested.

正在烏干達測試中

Now, the reason we were able to come up with this

我們能夠想出這個設計的原因

is two key ideas:

有兩個關鍵的點子

One is that this is similar to a cryogenic Dewar,

其中一個是類似液態氮瓶

something you'd keep liquid nitrogen or liquid helium in.

可以存放液態氮或液態氦

They have incredible insulation,

這種瓶子有極佳的保溫效果

so let's put some incredible insulation here.

所以我們把極佳的保溫效果用在這裡

The other idea is kind of interesting,

另外一個點子有點有趣

which is, you can't reach inside anymore.

就是，你沒有辦法用手去裡頭拿

Because if you open it up and reach inside,

因為如果你打開蓋子伸手進去拿

you'd let the heat in, the game would be over.

你會讓熱氣進去，那就玩完了

So the inside of this thing actually looks like a Coke machine.

所以這個瓶子裡頭實際上看起來像個自動販賣機

It vends out little individual vials.

一次送出一小罐

So a simple idea,

所以很簡單的點子

which we hope is going to change the way vaccines are distributed

我們希望可以改變疫苗分發運送的方式

in Africa and around the world.

在非洲和世界各地

We'll move on to malaria.

接著我們來談談瘧疾

Malaria is one of the great public health problems.

瘧疾是其中一個嚴重的大衆健康問題

Esther Duflo talked a little bit about this.

Esther Duflo的演講提到了一點點

Two hundred million people a year.

每一年有2.5億人感染

Every 43 seconds a child in Africa dies;

每43秒在非洲有一個兒童死於瘧疾

27 will die during my talk.

27個在我的演講的時間中死亡

And there's no way for us here in this country

我們在這個國家沒有辦法去體會

to grasp really what that means to the people involved.

這對病患的親朋來說是什麼意義

Another comment of Esther's

Esther提到的另外一點

was that we react when there's

我們會對海地這種災難

a tragedy like Haiti,

做出快速的反應

but that tragedy is ongoing.

但瘧疾是持續性的災難

So what can we do about it?

所以我們能夠做些什麼？

Well, there are a lot of things people have tried

很多年來大家試了

for many years for solving malaria.

很多方法去消滅瘧疾

You can spray; the problem is there are environmental issues.

你可以噴殺蟲劑；但問題是不環保

You can try to treat people and create awareness.

你可以試著去治療病患和讓他們對瘧疾有警覺性

That's great, except the places that have malaria really bad,

這很好，只是在瘧疾最嚴重的地區

they don't have health care systems.

他們沒有醫療系統

A vaccine would be a terrific thing,

疫苗會是很有用的

only they don't work yet.

只是目前疫苗還沒有效用

People have tried for a long time. There are a couple of interesting candidates.

很多人試了很久。有幾個比較有趣的可能方案

It's a very difficult thing to make a vaccine for.

開發疫苗是很困難的

You can distribute bed nets,

你可以發送蚊帳

and bed nets are very effective if you use them.

如果蚊帳有被使用的話，效果是很好的

You don't always use them for that. People fish with them.

但蚊帳不只是被用來當蚊帳。有人用蚊帳來捕魚

They don't always get to everyone.

不是每個人都拿到蚊帳

And bed nets

而蚊帳可以

have an effect on the epidemic,

有效控制傳染

but you're never going to make it extinct with bed nets.

但你永遠沒有辦法用蚊帳消滅瘧疾

Now, malaria is

現在，瘧疾是一種

an incredibly complicated disease.

極度複雜的傳染病

We could spend hours going over this.

我們可以花上好幾個小時來談瘧疾

It's got this sort of soap opera-like lifestyle;

瘧疾有這種像是連續劇般的生命週期

they have sex, they burrow into your liver,

它們交配。它們埋進你的肝臟。

they tunnel into your blood cells ...

它們鑽進你的血球中

it's an incredibly complicated disease,

它是種極度複雜的疾病

but that's actually one of the things we find interesting about it

但這正是我們對它感到興趣的其中一點

and why we work on malaria:

和為什麼我們研究瘧疾

There's a lot of potential ways in.

有很多可能的角度可以切入

One of those ways might be better diagnosis.

其中一個可能是改良診斷的方法

So we hope this year

所以我們希望今年

to prototype each of these devices.

可以完成這幾個儀器的雛形

One does an automatic malaria diagnosis

其中一個可以自動診斷瘧疾

in the same way that a diabetic's glucose meter works:

用類似於血糖儀量測的方法

You take a drop of blood,

你抽一滴血

you put it in there and it automatically tells you.

放進儀器裡，儀器自動告訴你結果

Today, you need to do a complicated laboratory procedure,

目前，你需要經過複雜的實驗室步驟

create a bunch of microscope slides

製做一堆顯微切片

and have a trained person examine it.

然後由訓練有素的人員檢驗它

The other thing is, you know,

另外一點，你也知道

it would be even better if you didn't have to draw the blood.

如果不需要抽血那就更好了

And if you look through the eye,

比方說你可以透過觀察眼睛

or you look at the vessels on the white of the eye,

或是檢視眼白裡的血管

in fact, you may be able to do this

實際上，你也許可以做到

directly, without drawing any blood at all,

直接的，完全不需要抽任何血

or through your nail beds.

或觀察你的指甲

Because if you actually look through your fingernails, you can see blood vessels,

因為，當你看透你的指甲，你可以看到血管

and once you see blood vessels, we think we can see the malaria.

而且當你可以看到血管，我們想我們可以看到瘧疾

We can see it because of this molecule

我們可以看到瘧疾，是因為這個分子

called hemozoin.

叫做hemozoin

It's produced by the malaria parasite

這是由瘧原蟲產生的

and it's a very interesting crystalline substance.

這是一種很有趣的結晶狀物質

Interesting, anyway, if you're a solid-state physicist.

相當有趣的，如果你是固態物理學家的話

There's a lot of cool stuff we can do with it.

有很多很酷的東西我們可以用它去試試

This is our femtosecond laser lab.

這是我們的飛秒超快雷射實驗室

So this creates pulses of light

這可以產生脈衝雷射光

that last a femtosecond.

這個光包持續一個飛秒

That's really, really, really short.

這是非常，非常，非常的短

This is a pulse of light that's

這是一個脈衝的光

only about one wavelength of light long,

只維持大約一個波長

so it's a whole bunch of photons

所這只是一小群光子

all coming and hitting simultaneously.

全部一起進來打在樣品上

It creates a very high peak power

它產生一個非常高的能量

and it lets you do all kinds of interesting things;

它讓你做各種有趣的東西

in particular, it lets you find hemozoin.

特別是讓你找到hemozoin

So here's an image of red blood cells,

這張照片裡有一些紅血球

and now we can actually map

而現在我們可以直接標示出

where the hemozoin and where the malaria parasites are

Hemozoin在那裡和瘧原蟲在那裡

inside those red blood cells.

在那些紅血球裡面

And using both this technique

同時使用這個技術

and other optical techniques,

還有其他光學科技

we think we can make those diagnostics.

我們覺得我們可以做出診斷

We also have another hemozoin-oriented

我們還有其他以hemozoin為目標的

therapy for malaria:

瘧疾治療方式

a way, in acute cases, to actually

在急重症的情形下用一個方法

take the malaria parasite and filter it out of the blood system.

直接把瘧原蟲從血液中過濾出來

Sort of like doing dialysis,

有點像是做透析

but for relieving the parasite load.

但是是為了減少原蟲的數量

This is our thousand-core supercomputer.

這是我們的千核超級電腦

We're kind of software guys,

我們是做軟體的

and so nearly any problem that you pose,

所以幾乎所有你提出來的問題

we like to try to solve with some software.

我們喜歡試著去用軟體來解決

One of the problems that you have if you're trying to eradicate malaria

其中一個問題是如果你要試著去消滅瘧疾

or reduce it

或者去減少案例

is you don't know what's the most effective thing to do.

你無法知道什麼是最有效的方法

Okay, we heard about bed nets earlier.

我們之前提到蚊帳

You spend a certain amount per bed net.

每個蚊帳要花這麼多錢

Or you could spray.

或者你可以噴殺蟲劑

You can give drug administration.

你可以給藥

There's all these different interventions

有這些不同的介入法

but they have different kinds of effectiveness.

但這些方法有不同的效果

How can you tell?

你怎麼決定？

So we've created, using our supercomputer,

所以我們用我們的超級電腦創造了

the world's best computer model of malaria,

世界上最好的瘧疾電腦模擬

which we'll show you now.

我們現在要秀給你看。

We picked Madagascar.

我們選了馬達加斯加

We have every road,

我們有每一條路

every village,

每一個村莊

every, almost, square inch of Madagascar.

每個，幾乎馬達加斯加的每一英吋

We have all of the precipitation data

我們有所有的降雨量資料

and the temperature data.

氣溫的資料

That's very important because the humidity and precipitation

這些資料很重要因為溼度和降雨量

tell you whether you've got

告訴你會不會有積水的水塘

standing pools of water for the mosquitoes to breed.

讓蚊子在裡頭繁殖

So that sets the stage on which you do this.

所以這設下了你可以使用的平臺

You then have to introduce the mosquitoes,

你然後要加入蚊子

and you have to model that

然後去模擬

and how they come and go.

看蚊子如何來來去去

Ultimately, it gives you this.

最終，你得到這個

This is malaria spreading

這是瘧疾怎麼傳播

across Madagascar.

橫跨馬達加斯加

And this is this latter part of the rainy season.

這是雨季快結束的部分

We're going to the dry season now.

接下來現在是旱季

It nearly goes away in the dry season,

它在旱季時幾乎完全消失

because there's no place for the mosquitoes to breed.

蚊子沒有地方可以繁殖

And then, of course, the next year it comes roaring back.

然後，當然，下一年它又再重新來過

By doing these kinds of simulations,

透過這種電腦模擬

we want to eradicate or control malaria

我們想要在軟體上模擬

thousands of times in software

消滅或控制瘧疾幾千次

before we actually have to do it in real life;

在我們實際上去執行之前

to be able to simulate both the economic trade-offs --

能夠同時去模擬經濟效益

how many bed nets versus how much spraying? --

要買多少蚊帳還是要噴多少藥

or the social trade-offs --

或是社會效益

what happens if unrest breaks out?

如果騷動發生了要怎麼辦？

We also try to study our foe.

我們也試著去研究我們的敵人。

This is a high-speed camera view

這是高速攝影機拍攝的

of a mosquito.

一隻蚊子

And, in a moment,

等一下

we're going to see a view of the airflow.

我們可以看到空氣怎麼流動

Here, we're trying to visualize the airflow

這裡，我們試著去觀察

around the wings of the mosquito

蚊子翅膀旁的氣流

with little particles we're illuminating with a laser.

我們用雷射去照亮這些小粒子

By understanding how mosquitoes fly,

透過了解蚊子怎麼飛

we hope to understand how to make them not fly.

我們希望可以了解怎麼可以讓牠們不能飛

Now, one of the ways you can make them not fly

現在，其中一個讓牠們不飛的方法

is with DDT.

是用DDT（殺蟲劑）

This is a real ad.

這是真的廣告(廣告上：DDT是對我有益的）

This is one of those things you just can't make up.

這不是那種你可以隨便假造

Once upon a time, this was the primary technique,

從前從前，這是主要的控制方法

and, in fact, many countries got rid of malaria through DDT.

而且，實際上不少國家用DDT消滅了瘧疾

The United States did.

美國是其中一個

In 1935, there were 150,000 cases a year

1935年，在美國

of malaria in the United States,

一年有15萬個瘧疾案例

but DDT and a massive public health effort

但是DDT和大量的公共衛生努力

managed to squelch it.

終於控制住

So we thought,

所以我們想

"Well, we've done all these things that are focused on the Plasmodium,

我們已經做了所有有關瘧原蟲的

the parasite involved.

和寄生蟲有關的研究

What can we do to the mosquito?

我們可以做些什麼是和蚊子有關的？

Well, let's try to kill it with consumer electronics."

好的，讓我們試著用家電用品來殺蚊子。

Now, that sounds silly,

現在，這聽起來有些荒唐

but each of these devices

但這裡每一個家電

has something interesting in it that maybe you could use.

都有些有趣的元件也許可以用得上

Your Blu-ray player has

你的藍光光碟機

a very cheap blue laser.

有一個很便宜的藍光電射

Your laser printer has a mirror galvanometer

你的雷射印表機鏡測電流計

that's used to steer a laser beam very accurately;

用來很準確地控制雷射光

that's what makes those little dots on the page.

這是用來在紙上畫出那些小點

And, of course, there's signal processing

而且，當然，還有訊號處理

and digital cameras.

和數位攝影機

So what if we could put all that together

所以如果我們可以把所有的東西裝在一起

to shoot them out of the sky with lasers?

用雷射把蚊子從空中射下來？

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Applause)

（掌聲）

Now, in our company, this is what we call

現在，在我們公司，這是我們叫做

"the pinky-suck moment."

“吸小指的時刻”（邪惡博士）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

What if we could do that?

要是我們可以做的到的話？

Now, just suspend disbelief for a moment,

現在，把不可置信放到一邊一下

and let's think of what could happen

讓我們想想會發生怎樣的情況

if we could do that.

要是我們可以做得到的話

Well, we could protect very high-value targets like clinics.

我們就可以保護高價值的目標像是診所

Clinics are full of people that have malaria.

診所滿是帶有瘧疾的人

They're sick, and so they're less able to defend themselves from the mosquitoes.

他們生病了，所以無法自已去防禦蚊子的攻擊

You really want to protect them.

你真的需要去保護他們

Of course, if you do that,

當然，如果你能保護診所

you could also protect your backyard.

你也可以保護你家後院

And farmers could protect their crops

然後農夫可以保護他們的農作物

that they want to sell to Whole Foods

那些他們可以賣到有機商店的作物

because our photons

因為我們的光子

are 100 percent organic. (Laughter)

是百分之百有機的

They're completely natural.

光子是完全天然的

Now, it actually gets better than this.

現在，實驗上它可以做到更好

You could, if you're really smart,

你可以，如果你很聰明的話

you could shine a nonlethal laser on the bug

你可以發射一道不致命的雷射在蟲身上

before you zap it,

在你用雷射殺死那隻蟲之前

and you could listen to the wing beat frequency

你可以聽聽蟲翅拍擊的頻率

and you could measure the size.

而且你可以量牠的大小

And then you could decide:

然後你可以決定

"Is this an insect I want to kill,

這是隻我想殺的蟲

or an insect I don't want to kill?"

或者這隻蟲我不想殺

Moore's law made computing cheap;

摩爾定律讓電腦運算便宜

so cheap we can weigh

便宜到我們可以衡量

the life of an individual insect

各別每隻蟲的生命

and decide thumbs up

然後決定是可以留活口

or thumbs down. (Laughter)

還是要滅口

Now, it turns out we only kill the female mosquitoes.

實際上，我們只需要殺死母的蚊子

They're the only ones that are dangerous.

只有牠們是危險的

Mosquitoes only drink blood

蚊子只有在下蛋時

to lay eggs.

才吸血

Mosquitoes actually live ... their day-to-day nutrition

蚊子的維生方法--牠們每天的養分

comes from nectar, from flowers --

來自於花蜜

in fact, in the lab, we feed ours raisins --

實際上，在實驗室裡，我們餵我們的蚊子葡萄乾

but the female needs the blood meal.

但是母的蚊子需要血粉

So, this sounds really crazy, right?

所以，這聽起來很瘋狂，對嗎？

Would you like to see it?

你想要看嗎？

Audience: Yeah!

觀眾：要

Nathan Myhrvold: Okay, so our legal department prepared a disclaimer,

好的，我們的律師準備了一份免責聲明

and here it is.

就是這（很大很嚇人的雷射）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）（不要用剩下的好眼球去看光束）

Now, after thinking about this a little bit

現在，在考慮了一點點之後

we thought, you know, it probably would be simpler

我們想，你知道，這可能會簡單點

to do this with a nonlethal laser.

如果用沒有傷害性的雷射

So, Eric Johanson, who built the device,

所以，Eric Johanson， 他組裝了這個機器

actually, with parts from eBay;

實際上，用從eBay買來的元件

and Pablos Holman over here,

然後Pablos Homan，在這裡

he's got mosquitoes in the tank.

他有蚊子在箱子裡

We have the device over here.

我們有這個裝製在這裡

And we're going to show you,

我們將要秀給你們看

instead of the kill laser,

替代有殺傷力的雷射

which will be a very brief, instantaneous pulse,

那是一個很短暫的脈衝

we're going to have a green laser pointer

我們會有一個綠光雷射筆

that's going to stay on the mosquito for, actually, quite a long period of time;

這個光點會停留在蚊子身上，實際上很長的一段時間

otherwise, you can't see it very well.

不然的話，你沒有辦法看清楚

Take it away Eric.

Eric你可以開始

Eric Johanson: What we have here

Eric Johanson: 我們這裡

is a tank on the other side of the stage.

有一個箱子在舞臺的另一頭

And we have ... this computer screen

然後我們有這個電腦螢幕

can actually see the mosquitoes as they fly around.

可以看到蚊子飛來飛去

And Pablos, if he stirs up our mosquitoes a little bit

然後Pablos，如果他攪動蚊子一下

we can see them flying around.

我們可以看到他們飛來飛去

Now, that's a fairly straightforward image processing routine,

現在這是很直接的影像處理程序

and let me show you how it works.

然後讓我們秀給你看這怎麼作用

Here you can see that the insects are being tracked

這裡你可以看到這些蟲子被追踪

as they're flying around,

當他們飛來飛去的時候

which is kind of fun.

這個呢，有點有趣

Next we can actually light them up with a laser. (Laughter)

接下來，我們可以實際上用雷射照亮牠們

Now, this is a low powered laser,

現在，這是低能量雷射

and we can actually pick up a wing-beat frequency.

我們可以真的聽到拍翅頻率

So you may be able to hear some mosquitoes flying around.

所以你可以聽到蚊子飛來飛去

NM: That's a mosquito wing beat you're hearing.

Nathan Myhrvold：你現在聽到的是蚊子拍翅的聲音

EJ: Finally, let's see what this looks like.

EJ：最後，讓我們看看這看起來是怎麼樣

There you can see mosquitoes as they fly around, being lit up.

那裡你可以看到蚊子在飛，被照亮

This is slowed way down

這是慢動作

so that you have an opportunity to see what's happening.

所以你可以有機會看到是怎麼發生的

Here we have it running at high-speed mode.

這是快速放映

So this system that was built for TED is here to illustrate

所以這套系統是為了在TED展示而做出來的

that it is technically possible to actually deploy a system like this,

使用像這樣的系統在技術上是可行的

and we're looking very hard at how to make it

而我們非常努力地試著去做出來

highly cost-effective to use in places like Africa and other parts of the world.

讓它在非洲或其他地方可以符合成本效益

(Applause)

（掌聲）

NM: So it wouldn't be any fun to show you that

NM:所以這不夠好玩如果我們不讓你們看

without showing you what actually happens when we hit 'em.

當我們真的打到牠們的樣子

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

This is very satisfying.

這非常令人滿意

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

This is one of the first ones we did.

這是我們做的第一個

The energy's a little bit high here.

使用的能量有點太高

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

We'll loop around here in just a second, and you'll see another one.

我們等一下會迴轉播放，然後你將會看到另一個

Here's another one. Bang.

這裡是另外一隻。砰！

An interesting thing is, we kill them all the time;

另一個有趣的是，我們一直殺牠們

we've never actually gotten the wings to shut off in midair.

我們從來沒有實際上在空中讓翅膀停下來

The wing motor is very resilient.

翅膀的馬達是非常不容易殺死的

I mean, here we're blowing wings off

我的意思是這裡我們把翅膀打掉

but the wing motor keeps all the way down.

但是翅膀的馬達繼續運作一直到牠掉下來

So, that's what I have. Thanks very much.

所以，我的演講到此為止，謝謝大家

(Applause)

（掌聲）