Toby Eccles: Invest in social change

翻译人员: Fiona Zhang 校对人员: Christine Chang

I'm here today to talk about social change,

今天，我想在这里谈论一下社会变革，

not a new therapy or a new intervention

这不是关于新的具体对策或干预方式，

or a new way of working with kids or something like that,

也不是关于处理儿童问题的新方法之类的，

but a new business model for social change,

而是一种新的社会变革的商业运作模式，

a new way of tackling the problem.

一种解决问题的新方法。

In Britain, 63 percent of all men

在英国，63%

who come out of short sentences from prison

经历过短期监禁的人

re-offend again within a year.

会在出狱后一年内重犯。

Now how many previous offenses

你们觉得，

do you think they have on average

他们平均每人

managed to commit?

会有多少次前科？

Forty-three.

43次。

And how many previous times do you think they've been in prison?

然后再想想，他们平均坐做过多少次牢？

Seven.

7次。

So we went to talk to the Ministry of Justice,

因此，我们和司法部进行谈判，

and we said to the Ministry of Justice,

我们对他们说，

what's it worth to you

如果重犯人数减少了，

if fewer of these guys re-offend?

能给司法部带来多大经济价值？

It's got to be worth something, right?

多少会有些，对不对？

I mean, there's prison costs,

这其中有监狱的支出，

there's police costs, there's court costs,

有警方和法庭的开销，

all these things that you're spending money on

还有其他的针对他们善后开支。

to deal with these guys. What's it worth?

这里的经济价值有多少？

Now, of course, we care about the social value.

当然，我们也在乎社会价值。

Social Finance, the organization I helped set up,

“社会金融”是我协助建立的一个组织，

cares about social stuff.

专门关注社会问题。

But we wanted to make the economic case,

但我们想把这个计划做成经济项目，

because if we could make the economic case,

因为，如果我们可以做到这一点，

then the value of doing this would be completely compelling.

这些计划就会有难以抗拒的吸引力。

And if we can agree on both a value

如果我们能认同这种价值

and a way of measuring whether we've been

并商定一种衡量我们是否

successful at reducing that re-offending,

成功降低重犯率的方式，

then we can do something

那么我们就可以实施一些

we think rather interesting.

我们认为有趣的想法。

The idea is called the social impact bond.

这个想法叫做“社会效益债券”。

Now, the social impact bond is simply saying,

简而言之，“社会效益债券”是指，

if we can get the government to agree,

如果我们使得政府相信

that we can create a contract where

我们可以制订一份合同，说明

they only pay if it worked.

只有项目取得成效时政府才需要支付费用，

So that means that they can try out new stuff

那就意味着，政府可以尝试新的方法

without the embarrassment

而不必应对

of having to pay if it didn't work,

破费却无果的尴尬境地。

which for still quite a lot of bits of government,

这对于许多政府而言

that's a serious issue.

是一个值得深思的问题。

Now, many of you may have noticed

现在，大家或许已经注意到

there's a problem at this point,

这里有一个问题，

and that is that it takes a long time to measure

那就是，检验有无取得意想中的成果

whether those outcomes have happened.

需要漫长的过程。

So we have to raise some money.

因此，我们需要筹集资金。

We use the contract to raise money

我们利用这份合同

from socially motivated investors.

从社会效益型投资者处筹集资金。

Socially motivated investors:

社会效益型投资者，

there's an interesting idea, right?

这是一个新颖有趣的概念，对不对？

But actually, there's a lot of people who,

但事实上，如果有机会的话

if they're given the chance,

很多人

would love to invest in something

乐意投资

that does social good.

可以产生社会效益的项目。

And here's the opportunity.

而这里就提供了这么一个机会。

Do you want to also help government find

你是否也想帮助政府挖掘

whether there's a better economic model,

一个更好地商业运作模式？

not just leaving these guys to come out of prison

不仅仅是放任犯罪者出狱以后

and waiting till they re-offend and putting them back in again,

再次犯罪、再次入狱，

but actually working with them

而是要切实地帮助他们

to move to a different path

走上一条不同的道路

to end up with fewer crimes

以此降低犯罪率，

and fewer victims?

减少受害者。

So we find some investors,

因此，我们要召集一些投资者，

and they pay for a set of services,

他们为一系列的服务提供资金，

and if those services are successful,

如果这些服务取得成功，

then they improve outcomes,

达到了改良（社会）的目的，

and with those measured reductions in re-offending,

那政府就因为重犯率下降

government saves money,

而节约了资金，

and with those savings,

而这些资金则可用于

they can pay outcomes.

支付这些效益的成本。

And the investors do not just get their money back,

这样，投资者不仅可以收回本金，

but they make a return.

还可以取得收益。

So in March 2010, we signed

在2010年3月，我们签署了

the first social impact bond

第一份“社会效益债券”

with the Ministry of Justice

（我们）与司法部合作，

around Peterborough Prison.

在彼得伯勒监狱开展了该项目。

It was to work with 3,000 offenders

我们把3000名犯罪者

split into three cohorts of 1,000 each.

分成3组，每组1000人。

Now, each of those cohorts

每组的成员

would get measured over the two years

自他们出狱时算起

that they were coming out of prison.

有两年的评估期。

They've got to have a year to commit their crimes,

他们可以有一年的时间再次犯罪，

six months to get through the court system,

有6个月的时间走完司法程序，

and then they would be compared to a group

然后我们会把他们与警方数据库中

taken from the police national computer,

基本情况应尽可能相似的

as similar as possible,

一组犯罪者作比较。

and we would get paid

我们得到报酬的条件是

providing we achieved a hurdle rate of 10-percent reduction,

达到重犯率降低10%的预期值，

for every conviction event that didn't happen.

所有被消灭罪行都将为我们带来收益。

So we get paid for crimes saved.

简而言之，犯罪率降低，项目有收益。

Now if we achieved that 10-percent reduction

如果三组犯罪者

across all three cohorts,

都减少了10%的重犯率，

then the investors get a seven and a half percent

那投资者就可以得到7.5%的

annualized return on their investment,

年投资回报率；

and if we do better than that,

如果项目效益比预期更好，

they can get up to 13 percent

那他们可以得到13%

annualized return on their investment,

的年投资回报率。

which is okay.

这是一件好事。

So everyone wins here, right?

大家各取所需，对不对？

The Ministry of Justice can try out a new program

司法部可以尝试一个新的项目，

and they only pay if it works.

而且是在有效的情况下才付款。

Investors get two opportunities:

投资者则有两种好处：

for the first time, they can invest in social change.

首先，他们可以投资社会变革。

Also, they make a reasonable return,

同时他们也能得到合理的收益。

and they also know that

他们也明白，

first investors in these kinds of things,

作为第一批参与这种项目的投资者，

they're going to have to believers.

他们必须是社会效益的拥护者，

They're going to have to care in the social program,

而且关注社会项目。

but if this builds a track record

如果该计划在5～10年中

over five or 10 years,

都有良好的收益，

then you can widen that investor community

那我们就可以扩大投资者的范围，

as more people have confidence in the product.

因为有更多的人对这个产品抱有信心。

The service providers, well, for the first time,

这些服务的提供者有史以来

they've got an opportunity to provide services

第一次有机会投资公共服务

and grow the evidence for what they're doing

并以一种积极的方式

in a really constructive way and learn

来见证他们所从事的事业。

and demonstrate the value of what they're doing

同时，他们可以在5～6年间

over five or six years, not just one or two

学习并展示这项事业的价值，而不是

as often happens at the moment.

在常规下短短的1～2年。

Society wins: fewer crimes, fewer victims.

社会也是赢家：犯罪率下降，受害者减少。

Now, the offenders, they also benefit.

而犯罪者也可以获益。

Instead of just coming out of the prison

从前，他们出狱时

with 46 pounds in their pocket,

兜里只揣着46英镑，

half of them not knowing where they're spending

一半人不知道出狱后的第一个晚上

their first night out of jail,

该在哪里度过。

actually, someone meets them in prison,

现在，有人会在犯罪者服刑期间就和他们接触，

learns about their issues,

了解他们的背景；

meets them at the gate,

出狱时，有人会在监狱门口接应他们，

takes them through to somewhere to stay,

带他们到住宿的地方，

connects them to benefits, connects them to employment,

帮助他们办理社会保险和就业，

drug rehabilitation, mental health,

联系戒毒中心、心理治疗

whatever's needed.

以及其他他们需要的东西。

So let's think of another example:

我们再来考虑另一个例子：

working with children in care.

帮助福利院中的儿童。

Social impact bonds work great

社会效益债券取得了很好的成果，

for any area where there is at the moment

尤其是在那些

very expensive provision that produces

花费高昂

poor outcomes for people.

却没有成效的领域。

So children in the state care

就福利院中的儿童而言

tend to do very badly.

他们的表现十分糟糕。

Only 13 percent achieve a reasonable level

只有13%的福利院孩子可以在16岁的时候

of five GCSEs at 16,

达到普遍的学业水平， （即完成五门普通中等教育证书考试）

against 58 percent of the wider population.

而在全英国的同龄人中，这个比例是58%。

More troublingly, 27 percent of offenders in prison

让人忧心的是，监狱中27%的犯罪者

have spent some time in care.

曾经生活在福利院中。

And even more worryingly,

更有甚者，

and this is a Home Office statistic,

内政部的数据显示，

70 percent of prostitutes

70%的妓女

have spent some time in care.

曾经生活于福利院。

The state is not a great parent.

（可见）国家并不是一位合适的家长。

But there are great programs

不过，现在有很好的项目

for adolescents who are on the edge of care,

服务于很可能要前往福利院的青少年，

and 30 percent of kids going into care

而福利院中30%的孩子

are adolescents.

是青少年。

So we set up a program with Essex County Council

因此我们与艾萨克斯县议会合作开展了一个项目，

to test out intensive family therapeutic support

来找出全面的家庭治疗方法

for those families with adolescents

以服务于那些可能有孩子要

on the edge of the care system.

前往福利院的家庭。

Essex only pays in the event

而艾克萨斯县政府只用为

that it's saving them care costs.

那些削减了开支的项目埋单。

Investors have put in 3.1 million pounds.

投资者共投入了310万英镑。

That program started last month.

这个项目于上个月开始运营。

Others, around homelessness in London,

还有其他一些项目，关注伦敦的流浪人群，

around youth and employment and education

关注全国各地年轻人的

elsewhere in the country.

就业和教育

There are now 13 social impact bonds in Britain,

现在，英国有13份社会效益债券。

and amazing levels of interest in this idea

而社会对其的热情持续高涨，

all over the world.

延展到全世界。

So David Cameron's put 20 million pounds

卡梅伦（英国首相）已经为支持此想法

into a social outcomes fund to support this idea.

向社会效益基金会支付了两千万英镑。

Obama has suggested 300 million dollars

奥巴马提议，从美国的预算中

in the U.S. budget for these kinds of ideas

抽出3亿美元来推进这些想法

and structures to move it forward,

和组织。

and a lot of other countries

还有很多国家

are demonstrating considerable interest.

表现出极大地兴趣。

So what's caused this excitement?

是什么让他们如此兴奋？

Why is this so different for people?

这对于人们而言有什么特别的？

Well, the first piece, which we've talked about,

首先，我们已经谈到过了，

is innovation.

是创新。

It enables testing of new ideas

它给尝试新想法提供了机会，

in a way that's less difficult for everybody.

且这种方式不会给人们制造麻烦。

The second piece it brings is rigor.

第二点是严密。

By working to outcomes, people really have to test

为了取得效益，人们必须反复试验

and bring data into the situation that one's dealing with.

并把数据信息应用于正在解决的问题上。

So taking Peterborough as an example,

以彼得伯勒（监狱）为例，

we add case management

我们把个案管理

across all of the different organizations that we're working with

添加到所有与我们合作的组织之中；

so they know

因此他们能够知晓

what actually has been done with different prisoners,

我们是如何对待不同类型的犯罪者，

and at the same time they learn

同时，我们会主动从司法部

from the Ministry of Justice, and we learn,

索要信息，因此他们（监狱）和我们

because we pushed for the data,

都可以了解到

what actually happens, whether they get re-arrested or not.

犯罪者的近况，有没有被再次逮捕。

And we learn and adapt the program accordingly.

我们会研究并根据实际情况调整项目。

And this leads to the third element, which is new,

这就带来了第三个，也是一个新的好处，

and that's flexibility.

灵活性。

Because normal contracting for things,

一般的合同

when you're spending government money,

都是要政府付钱的，

you're spending our money, tax money,

也就是说，要花我们纳税人的钱，

and the people who are in charge of that are very aware of it

负责项目的人很清楚这一点。

so the temptation is to control exactly how you spend it.

因此，关键是要控制花钱的方式。

Now any entrepreneur in the room knows

在座的每一位企业家都明白，

that version 1.0, the business plan,

这是商业计划的1.0版本

is not the one that generally works.

而且通常是行不通的。

So when you're trying to do something like this,

当你尝试开展这样的计划时，

you need the flexibility to adapt the program.

就需要灵活性来调整这个计划。

And again, in Peterborough, we started off

再回到彼得伯勒（监狱）的项目，

with a program, but we also collected data,

我们在运营的同时也收集信息；

and over the period of time,

过一段时间之后，

we nuanced and changed that program

我们就根据现实与设想的差别来调整计划

to add a range of other elements,

并加入了一系列新的元素，

so that the service adapts

使得这些服务既能

and we meet the needs of the long term

满足长期效益

as well as the short term:

也能契合短期需求：即

greater engagement from the prisoners,

更多的犯罪者

longer-term engagement as well.

可以参与到期限更长的项目中。

The last element is partnership.

最后一种好处是合作。

There is, at the moment, a stale debate going on very often:

这其实是老生常谈：

state's better, public sector's better,

国家变好，公众受惠，

private sector's better, social sector's better,

个人获益，社会多赢。

for a lot of these programs.

这是类似项目的普遍规律。

Actually, for creating social change,

事实上，如果想推动社会变革，

we need to bring in the expertise

我们需要充分利用

from all of those parties

社会各界的专业知识

in order to make this work.

才能使这成为可能。

And this creates a structure

而这些项目创造了一种机制

through which they can combine.

来融合各方的力量。

So where does this leave us?

这一切都说明了什么？

This leaves us with a way

它们提供了一种方法，

that people can invest in social change.

让人们有机会投资社会变革。

We've met thousands, possibly millions of people,

我们遇到成千甚至上百万的人

who want the opportunity to invest in social change.

希望有机会投资社会变革。

We've met champions all over the public sector

我们知道很多公共部门中的精英

keen to make these kinds of differences.

都很热衷于创造不同。

With this kind of model,

利用这种商业模式

we can help bring them together.

我们可以把他们团结在一起。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）