Parag Khanna maps the future of countries

翻译人员: Juncheng Sun 校对人员: Yuan Zhang

Do we live in a borderless world?

我们生活在一个无国界的世界吗？

Before you answer that, have a look at this map.

在您回答这个问题前，请看一下这张地图。

Contemporary political map shows

当代政治地图显示

that we have over 200 countries in the world today.

世界上现有超过200个国家。

That's probably more than at any time in centuries.

这或许是多个世纪以来国家数目最多的时期。

Now, many of you will object.

或许很多人会表示反对。

For you this would be a more appropriate map.

那么这可能是一张更能说服你的地图。

You could call it TEDistan.

你可以把它称作TED之图。

In TEDistan, there are no borders,

在TED之图上，没有任何国界，

just connected spaces and unconnected spaces.

只存在相互连接的区域和毫不相连的区域。

Most of you probably reside in one of the 40 dots

大部分在座的或许都生活在荧幕中图示的40个点中的某个点上，

on this screen, of the many more

这些只是许多个点中的一部分，

that represent 90 percent of the world economy.

而却代表了世界经济的90%。

But let's talk about the 90 percent of the world population

而我们要知道， 世界人口中的90%

that will never leave the place in which they were born.

永远都不会离开自己的出生地。

For them, nations, countries, boundaries, borders still matter a great deal,

对他们来说，民族、国家、分界线和国界仍然关系重大，

and often violently.

甚至是至关重要。

Now here at TED, we're solving some of the great

而在TED，我们试图解开科学中

riddles of science and mysteries of the universe.

和宇宙中一些伟大的谜团。

Well here is a fundamental problem we have not solved:

而在这里我们有一个根本问题有待解决：

our basic political geography.

我们基本的政治地理学。

How do we distribute ourselves around the world?

我们在地球上是如何分布的？

Now this is important, because border conflicts

这个问题很重要，因为边界冲突

justify so much of the world's military-industrial complex.

让世界上如此之多的军工联合体的存在合理化。

Border conflicts can derail

边界冲突能让我们期盼的许多进展

so much of the progress that we hope to achieve here.

偏离轨道。

So I think we need a deeper understanding

因此，我认为我们需要更加深刻的思考，

of how people, money, power,

人口、财富、权力、

religion, culture, technology

宗教、文化、科技

interact to change the map of the world.

是如何相互作用，从而改变世界地图的面貌的。

And we can try to anticipate those changes,

我们也可以试着预测这些改变，

and shape them in a more constructive direction.

将他们导引至一个更加具有建设性的方向。

So we're going to look at some maps of the past,

我们来看一下一些过去的和现在的地图，

the present and some maps you haven't seen

还有一些你们从未见过的地图，

in order to get a sense of where things are going.

来初步感受一下世界的走向。

Let's start with the world of 1945.

我们首先来看一下1945年的地图。

1945 there were just 100 countries in the world.

1945年的时候，世界上正好有100个国家。

After World War II, Europe was devastated,

二次世界大战后，欧洲元气大伤，

but still held large overseas colonies:

但是仍然占有大量的海外殖民地：

French West Africa, British East Africa, South Asia, and so forth.

法属西非、英属东非和南亚，等等。

Then over the late '40s,

接着40年代末期，

'50s, '60s, '70s and '80s,

50年代、60年代、70年代和80年代，

waves of decolonization took place.

脱离殖民运动开始风气云涌。

Over 50 new countries were born.

诞生了50多个新的国家。

You can see that Africa has been fragmented.

你可以看到非洲被打碎了。

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South East Asian nations created.

印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉、东南亚国家建立了起来。

Then came the end of the Cold War.

之后冷战结束。

The end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

冷战结束和苏联的解体。

You had the creation of new states in Eastern Europe,

我们又见证了东欧一些新的国家的成立，

the former Yugoslav republics and the Balkans,

前南斯拉夫共和国和巴尔干半岛诸国，

and the 'stans of central Asia.

以及中亚的一些斯坦国。

Today we have 200 countries in the world.

今天世界上有200多个国家。

The entire planet is covered

整个地球都被

by sovereign, independent nation-states.

自治区、独立国家/洲等所覆盖。

Does that mean that someone's gain has to be someone else's loss?

这是不是说一些人的得必然是另外一些人的失呢？

Let's zoom in on one of the most strategic areas of the world,

让我们将焦点对准世界上最具战略意义的地区，

Eastern Eurasia.

欧亚大陆东部。

As you can see on this map,

从地图上可以看到，

Russia is still the largest country in the world.

俄罗斯仍然是世界上最大的国家。

And as you know, China is the most populous.

大家也知道，中国是人口最多的国家。

And they share a lengthy land border.

这两个国家中间有一条漫长的陆地疆界。

What you don't see on this map

而大家从这张地图上看不见的是

is that most of Russia's 150 million people

俄罗斯1.5亿人口中的大部分

are concentrated in its western provinces

都集中在西部

and areas that are close to Europe.

靠近欧洲的省份和地区。

And only 30 million people are in its eastern areas.

仅有3000万人口居住在东部地区。

In fact, the World Bank predicts

事实上，世界银行预测

that Russia's population is declining

俄罗斯的人口正在减少

towards about 120 million people

逐渐减少至1.2亿。

And there is another thing that you don't see on this map.

此外还有一件事大家也无法从地图上得知。

Stalin, Khrushchev and other Soviet leaders

斯大林、克鲁晓夫和其他苏联的领导人

forced Russians out to the far east

曾经强迫俄罗斯人移居远东地区

to be in gulags, labor camps,

的古拉格、劳动集中营、

nuclear cities, whatever the case was.

核试验基地，等等。

But as oil prices rose,

但随着油价的上升，

Russian governments have invested in infrastructure

俄罗斯政府投资建设了基础设施

to unite the country, east and west.

以联结东部和西部。

But nothing has more perversely impacted

但是很难再像以前那样强蛮地

Russia's demographic distribution,

影响俄罗斯的人口分布了。

because the people in the east, who never wanted to be there anyway,

因为东部地区的那些居民一直都不愿意呆在那里，

have gotten on those trains and roads

他们登上火车和汽车

and gone back to the west.

返回了西部地区。

As a result, in the Russian far east today,

结果呢，现在的俄罗斯远东地区，

which is twice the size of India,

虽然面积是印度的两倍，

you have exactly six million Russians.

却只剩下了600万人口。

So let's get a sense of what is happening in this part of the world.

那么让我们来了解一下这个地区现在正在发生什么。

We can start with Mongolia, or as some call it, Mine-golia.

我们先看一下蒙古国，也有人称呼它为矿之国。

Why do they call it that?

为什么这么称呼它呢？

Because in Mine-golia, Chinese firms operate

因为在矿之国，中国公司开采

and own most of the mines -- copper, zinc, gold --

和拥有那里的大部分矿藏 -- 铜矿、锌矿、金矿 --

and they truck the resources south and east into mainland China.

他们将这些资源用卡车运回中国大陆的南部和东部。

China isn't conquering Mongolia.

中国并没有在征服蒙古。

It's buying it.

而是在购买蒙古。

Colonies were once conquered. Today countries are bought.

过去殖民地是征服得来的，而今天国家是购买得到的。

So let's apply this principle to Siberia.

同样的法则也适用于西伯利亚。

Siberia most of you probably think of

许多人可能都会认为西伯利亚

as a cold, desolate, unlivable place.

是个寒冷、荒芜和不适合居住的地方。

But in fact, with global warming and rising temperatures,

但事实上，随着全球暖化和温度上升，

all of a sudden you have vast wheat fields

忽然之间，那里出现了大片的麦田

and agribusiness, and grain being produced in Siberia.

农业贸易和谷物。

But who is it going to feed?

那么这些农产品是给谁消费的呢？

Well, just on the other side of the Amo River,

就在漠河的另外一边，

in the Heilongjiang and Harbin provinces of China,

就是中国的黑龙江等省

you have over 100 million people.

那里居住着超过1亿的人口。

That's larger than the entire population of Russia.

这比整个俄罗斯的人口都要多。

Every single year, for at least a decade or more,

每年，至少在过去10多年里都是如此，

[60,000] of them have been voting with their feet,

都有60万人口用他们的脚投票，

crossing, moving north and inhabiting this desolate terrain.

穿越边界，移民北方，居住在这些荒凉的地带。

They set up their own bazaars and medical clinics.

他们建立起了他们自己的百货市场和医疗诊所。

They've taken over the timber industry

他们还接手了伐木业，

and been shipping the lumber east, back into China.

将木材往东运回中国。

Again, like Mongolia,

和在蒙古发生的一样，

China isn't conquering Russia. It's just leasing it.

中国并不是在征服俄罗斯。只是在租赁而已。

That's what I call globalization Chinese style.

这就是我所称的中国式全球化。

Now maybe this is what the map of the region

也许这就是这个区域的地图

might look like in 10 to 20 years.

在10至20年后的样子。

But hold on. This map is 700 years old.

但有意思的是，这张地图已经700岁了。

This is the map of the Yuan Dynasty,

这正是中国元代的地图，

led by Kublai Khan, the grandson of Genghis Khan.

由忽必烈汗统治的朝代，成吉思汗的孙子。

So history doesn't necessarily repeat itself,

历史并不一定会重复，

but it does rhyme.

但却会重演。

This is just to give you a taste of what's happening in this part of the world.

这只是让大家稍微了解了一下这个地区正在发生什么。

Again, globalization Chinese style.

同样，中国式的全球化。

Because globalization opens up all kinds of ways for us to

因为全球化为我们带来了多种多样的可能性

undermine and change the way we think about political geography.

来变革我们思考政治地理的方式。

So, the history of East Asia in fact,

因此，事实上在东亚的历史中，

people don't think about nations and borders.

人们并没有太过关注国家和疆界。

They think more in terms of empires and hierarchies,

而更在意帝权和统治，

usually Chinese or Japanese.

通常是中国人和日本人。

Well it's China's turn again.

现在又轮到中国了。

So let's look at how China is re-establishing

让我们看一下中国是如何再次建立起

that hierarchy in the far East.

它在远东地区的统治地位的。

It starts with the global hubs.

它首先从全球性的区域中心开始。

Remember the 40 dots on the nighttime map

记得刚刚那张夜间地图中的40多个亮点吗？

that show the hubs of the global economy?

这些亮点标示出了全球经济的聚集区。

East Asia today has more of those global hubs

当今东亚地区拥有全世界最多的经济聚集区

than any other region in the world.

比世界上任何其他地区都多。

Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai,

东京、首尔、北京、上海、

Hong Kong, Singapore and Sidney.

香港、新加坡和悉尼。

These are the filters and funnels of global capital.

这些区域是全球资金的过滤网和漏斗。

Trillions of dollars a year are being brought into the region,

每年有数以兆计的资金流入这个区域。

so much of it being invested into China.

其中很多都投向了中国。

Then there is trade.

还有贸易。

These vectors and arrows represent ever stronger

这些指向线和箭头代表

trade relationships that China has

中国与区域内各国的贸易关系

with every country in the region.

史无前例地紧密。

Specifically, it targets Japan

尤其是它对日本、

and Korea and Australia,

韩国和澳大利亚的贸易，

countries that are strong allies of the United States.

这些国家都是美国的密切盟友。

Australia, for example, is heavily dependent

例如澳大利亚，非常依赖

on exporting iron ore and natural gas to China.

向中国出口铁矿石和天然气。

For poorer countries, China reduces tariffs

而在与贫穷国家交易时，中国降低关税

so that Laos and Cambodia can sell their goods more cheaply

因而老挝和柬埔寨可以以更便宜的价格销售他们的商品

and become dependent on exporting to China as well.

随之也对向中国的出口产生依赖。

And now many of you have been reading in the news

许多人都在新闻中看到

how people are looking to China

大家都很期待中国

to lead the rebound, the economic rebound, not just in Asia, but potentially for the world.

引领复苏，经济复苏，不仅仅是对亚洲，而可能是对全世界。

The Asian free trade zone, almost free trade zone, that's emerging

亚洲自由贸易区，几乎已经是自由贸易区了，正逐步显现。

now has a greater trade volume than trade across the Pacific.

贸易额超过了跨太平洋的贸易额。

So China is becoming the anchor of the economy in the region.

因此中国正成为该地区经济的靠山。

Another pillar of this strategy is diplomacy.

这一策略的另外一个支柱是外交。

China has signed military agreements with many countries in the region.

中国与该地区内的许多国家都签署了军事协议。

It has become the hub of diplomatic institutions

它已成为一些国际关系组织的中心

such as the East Asian Community.

例如东亚共同体。

Some of these organizations don't even have

有些组织甚至

the United States as a member.

将美国排除在外。

There is a treaty of nonaggression between countries,

这些国家间达成了一个互不干涉条约，

such that if there were a conflict between China and the United States,

因而如果中国与美国之间发生冲突，

most countries vow to just sit it out,

大部分国家都会宣誓中立，

including American allies like Korea and Australia.

包括韩国和澳大利亚等美国盟友。

Another pillar of the strategy,

该策略的另外一个支柱，

like Russia, is demographic.

例如针对俄罗斯，是人口。

China exports business people, nannies, students,

中国向外输出商人、保姆、学生、

teachers to teach Chinese around the region,

和老师，在整个区域内教授中文，

to intermarry and to occupy ever greater

彼此通婚，以及在各个经济体中占据

commanding heights of the economies.

史无前例的主导性地位。

Already ethnic Chinese people

已经可以看到中国人

in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia

在马来西亚、泰国和印尼等国家中

are the real key factors and drivers

成为了当地经济不容忽视的

in the economies there.

关键因素和推动力。

Chinese pride is resurgent in the region

中国人的自豪感在这个区域也

as a result.

再次复苏。

Singapore, for example, used to ban Chinese language education.

例如新加坡，曾经一度禁止利用中文教学。

Now it encourages it.

而现在却大力提倡。

If you add it all up what do you get?

让我们综合来看，大家会得出什么结论？

Well, if you remember before World War II,

如果你还记得二战前

Japan had a vision

日本曾有一个梦想

for a greater Japanese co-prosperity sphere.

建立日本大东亚共荣圈。

What's emerging today is what you might call

而今一个我们可以称之为

a greater Chinese co-prosperity sphere.

大中国共荣圈的形态正逐步显现。

So no matter what the lines on the map tell you

因此不管地图上的分界线是如何区隔

in terms of nations and borders,

出国家和划出疆界的，

what you really have emerging in the far east

在远东地区正在呈现的

are national cultures,

国家文化，

but in a much more fluid, imperial zone.

却是在一个流动的帝国区域里互通的。

All of this is happening without firing a shot.

这些都是在不发一颗子弹的情况下发生的。

That's most certainly not the case in the Middle East

而在中东地区却大相径庭，

where countries are still very uncomfortable

这里的国家仍然对欧洲殖民者留下的疆界

in the borders left behind by European colonialists.

感到非常不满。

So what can we do to think about borders differently in this part of the world?

那么我们怎样能够换一种方式来看待这个区域的疆界问题呢？

What lines on the map should we focus on?

我们应该关注地图上的哪些线呢？

What I want to present to you is what I call

我要向大家展示的是一个我称之为

state building, day by day.

渐进式国家建立的概念。

Let's start with Iraq.

让我们从伊拉克谈起。

Six years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq,

美国入侵伊拉克6年后，

the country still exists more on a map than it does in reality.

地图上的这个国家仍然是比现实中的完整很多。

Oil used to be one of the forces holding Iraq together;

石油原本是将伊拉克各派势力团结在一起的因素。

now it is the most significant cause of the country's disintegration.

而现在石油却是导致国家分裂的根源。

The reason is Kurdistan.

原因是库尔德人。

The Kurds for 3,000 years

库尔德人3000年来

have been waging a struggle for independence,

一直进行着追求独立的斗争。

and now is their chance to finally have it.

现在是他们可以最终获取独立的机会。

These are pipeline routes, which emerge from Kurdistan,

这些是输油管道，源头从库尔德开始，

which is an oil-rich region.

这是一个石油资源富饶的地区。

And today, if you go to Kurdistan,

今天，如果你去库尔德，

you'll see that Kurdish Peshmerga guerillas

你会看到库尔德“自由斗士”

are squaring off against the Sunni Iraqi army.

正对伊拉克逊尼派军队进行自卫攻击。

But what are they guarding?

他们所要守护的是什么呢？

Is it really a border on the map?

仅仅是地图上的一条疆界吗?

No. It's the pipelines.

当然不是。是输油管道。

If the Kurds can control their pipelines, they can set the terms

如果库尔德人掌控了他们的输油管道，他们就可以起草

of their own statehood.

建立他们自己的国家。

Now should we be upset about this, about the potential disintegration of Iraq?

那么我们应该为之感到难过吗？因为伊拉克可能会被分裂。

I don't believe we should.

我认为不然。

Iraq will still be the second largest oil producer in the world,

伊拉克仍然会是世界上第二大产油国，

behind Saudi Arabia.

仅次于沙特阿拉伯。

And we'll have a chance to solve a 3,000 year old dispute.

而且我们有机会解决一个存在3000年的纷争。

Now remember Kurdistan is landlocked.

不要忘记库尔德是一个被陆地包围的地区。

It has no choice but to behave.

它必须循规蹈矩。

In order to profit from its oil

要从它的石油中获取利益，

it has to export it through Turkey or Syria,

它必须取道土耳其或者叙利亚输出石油，

and other countries, and Iraq itself.

以及别的国家，包括伊拉克。

And therefore it has to have amicable relations with them.

因而它必须要和他们保持友好关系。

Now lets look at a perennial conflict in the region.

现在我们看一下这个地区另外一个连年不断的冲突。

That is, of course, in Palestine.

显而易见，这就是巴勒斯坦。

Palestine is something of a cartographic anomaly

巴勒斯坦从地图上看是一个畸形儿，

because it's two parts Palestinian, one part Israel.

因为它由两部分巴勒斯坦和一部分以色列组成。

30 years of rose garden diplomacy

30年的玫瑰花园外交

have not delivered us peace in this conflict.

并没有给这里的区域冲突中带来和平。

What might? I believe that what might

那有其他办法吗？我认为要这个

solve the problem is infrastructure.

问题可以通过基础工程建设来解决。

Today donors are spending billions of dollars on this.

今天，捐助者正花费数十亿美金在此项目上。

These two arrows are an arc,

这两个箭头连成一条弧线，

an arc of commuter railroads and other infrastructure

一条由客运火车线和其它基础设施连成的弧线

that link the West Bank and Gaza.

连接西岸和加沙地带。

If Gaza can have a functioning port

如果加沙有一个运营的港口

and be linked to the West Bank, you can have a viable Palestinian state,

跟西岸连通起来，那么就可以切实可行地成立一个巴勒斯坦国，

Palestinian economy.

以及巴勒斯坦经济体。

That, I believe, is going to bring peace to this particular conflict.

我相信这一举措可以给这个区域带来和平。

The lesson from Kurdistan and from Palestine

库尔德和巴勒斯坦的教训是

is that independence alone, without infrastructure,

独立本身，如果没有基础建设的支持，

is futile.

是没有意义的。

Now what might this entire region look like

那么试想整个这个区域会呈现怎样一个面貌呢？

if in fact we focus on other lines on the map besides borders,

如果我们也去关注地图上除了边界线之外的其他界线的话。

when the insecurities might abate?

那时候不稳定因素会大幅减少吗。

The last time that was the case was actually

上一次和平时期已经是

a century ago, during the Ottoman Empire.

一个世纪以前的事了，在奥斯曼帝国时期。

This is the Hejaz Railway.

这是Hijaz铁路线。

The Hejaz Railway ran from Istanbul to Medina via Damascus.

Hijaz铁路线从斯坦布尔出发，途经大马士革，抵达麦地那。

It even had an offshoot running to Haifa

它甚至有一条支线可以抵达海法，

in what is today Israel, on the Mediterranean Sea.

位于今天的以色列，紧靠地中海。

But today the Hejaz Railway lies in tatters, ruins.

但是今天的Hijaz铁路线破败不堪。

If we were to focus on reconstructing these curvy lines on the map,

如果我们可以将地图上这些曲线重新建造起来的话，

infrastructure, that cross the straight lines, the borders,

这些基础建设，穿越这些直线 -- 疆界，

I believe the Middle East would be a far more peaceful region.

我相信中东会成为一个远比现在和平的地区。

Now let's look at another part of the world,

让我们将目光转到地球上的另外一个区域，

the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia, the 'stans.

位于中亚地区的前苏联地区，这些斯坦国。

These countries' borders originate from Stalin's decrees.

这些国家的边界线来自于斯大林颁布的法令。

He purposely did not want these countries to make sense.

他故意将这些国家分割得七零八落。

He wanted ethnicities to mingle

他想让不同种族混居

in ways that would allow him to divide and rule.

这样他就可以进行分裂和统治。

Fortunately for them, most of their oil and gas resources

而对这些国家来说幸运的是，他们大部分的油气资源

were discovered after the Soviet Union collapsed.

是在苏联垮台之后发现的。

Now I know some of you may be thinking, "Oil, oil, oil.

我知道你们中的一些人肯定在想，“石油，石油，又是石油，

Why is it all he's talking about is oil?"

为什么他老在说石油呢？”

Well, there is a big difference in the way we used to talk about oil

请注意，以前我们讨论石油的方式和

and the way we're talking about it now.

现在我们所讨论的方式是大不相同的。

Before it was, how do we control their oil?

以前，我们会讨论我们如何控制他们的石油。

Now it's their oil for their own purposes.

而现在是，他们怎样利用自己的石油。

And I assure you it's every bit as important to them

我敢保证，现在对他们来说任何一滴石油都十分重要，

as it might have been to colonizers and imperialists.

和曾经对于殖民统治者和帝国主义者那样同样重要。

Here are just some of the pipeline projections

这里是一些计划中的输油管道

and possibilities and scenarios

和一些可能的情况

and routes that are being mapped out for the next several decades.

以及线路，也许会在未来的几十年内得以实现。

A great deal of them.

非常之多。

For a number of countries in this part of the world,

对这个区域的一些国家来说，

having pipelines is the ticket to becoming part of the global economy

拥有输油管到就等同于拿到了加入全球经济体中的门票

and for having some meaning

这对他们很有意义，

besides the borders that they are not loyal to themselves.

加之边界对他们来存在变数。

Just take Azerbaijan.

让我们举一下阿塞拜疆的例子。

Azerbaijan was a forgotten corner of the Caucuses,

阿塞拜疆是高加索地区被遗忘一个的角落。

but now with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline into Turkey,

但是随着Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan输油管道通往土耳其，

it has rebranded itself as the frontier of the west.

它已重新将自己标榜为西方的前哨。

Then there is Turkmenistan, which most people think of

还有土库曼斯坦，在许多人的印象里

as a frozen basket case.

它就是一个天寒地冻的毫无希望之地。

But now it's contributing gas across the Caspian Sea

但是现在它正穿越里海将天然气

to provide for Europe,

输往欧洲，

and even a potentially Turkmen-

甚至有可能建造土库曼-

Afghan-Pakistan-India pipeline as well.

阿富汗-巴基斯坦-印度输油管道。

Then there is Kazakhstan, which didn't even have a name before.

还有哈萨克斯坦，之前甚至没有一个正式的名字。

It was more considered South Siberia during the Soviet Union.

在苏联时期它更多地被称作南西部利亚。

Today most people recognize Kazakhstan

而现在大部分人都认为哈萨克斯坦

as an emerging geopolitical player. Why?

是一个新兴的地缘政治角色。为什么呢？

Because it has shrewdly designed pipelines to flow across the Caspian,

因为它机智地设计了穿越里海的输油管道，

north through Russia, and even east to China.

往北进入俄罗斯的管道，甚至向西进入中国的管道。

More pipelines means more silk roads, instead of the Great Game.

管道越多意味着“丝绸之路”也越多，而不再是大博弈。

The Great Game connotes dominance of one over the other.

大博弈意味着一个国家对另外一个国家的主导。

Silk road connotes independence and mutual trust.

而丝绸之路意味着独立和互信。

The more pipelines we have, the more silk roads we'll have,

输油管道越多，那么丝绸之路也会越多，

and the less of a dominant Great Game competition

21世纪的主导权争夺战

we'll have in the 21st century.

也会越来越少。

Now let's look at the only part of the world that really has brought down its borders,

让我们来看一下这个世界上唯一真正放弃了边界的地区，

and how that has enhanced its strength.

以及这一举动如何让它自身变得更加强大。

And that is, of course, Europe.

当然，这就是欧洲。

The European Union began as just the coal and steel community of six countries,

欧盟仅起源于6个煤炭和钢铁联盟的国家。

and their main purpose was really to keep the rehabilitation of Germany

他们的主要目的实际上是为了帮助德国

to happen in a peaceful way.

通过和平的方式得以复苏。

But then eventually it grew into 12 countries,

但是却逐渐扩大到12个国家。

and those are the 12 stars on the European flag.

这些国家就是欧盟旗帜上的12颗星。

The E.U. also became a currency block,

欧盟也成为了一个货币联盟，

and is now the most powerful trade block in the entire world.

它是世界上现今最强大的贸易联盟。

On average, the E.U. has grown by one country per year

欧盟以平均每年吸纳一个新成员的速度扩张

since the end of the Cold War.

自从冷战以来。

In fact most of that happened on just one day.

事实上，许多新成员都是同一天加入的。

In 2004, 15 new countries joined the E.U.

2004年，15个新成员国家加入了欧盟。

and now you have what most people consider

现在，一个由

a zone of peace spanning 27 countries

27个国家和4.5亿人口组成的公认的和平区域

and 450 million people.

呈现在我们面前。

So what is next? What is the future of the European Union?

那么下一步是什么？欧盟的未来会是怎样？

Well in light blue, you see the zones

这个浅蓝色区域，你可以看到至少

or the regions that are at least two-thirds

2/3的地方依赖于

or more dependent on the European Union

与欧盟国家的

for trade and investment.

贸易和投资。

What does that tell us? Trade and investment tell us

这又能说明什么呢？贸易和投资告诉我们

that Europe is putting its money where its mouth is.

欧洲并不是在纸上谈兵，而是付出了实际的行动。

Even if these regions aren't part of the E.U.,

即使这些区域不是欧盟成员国，

they are becoming part of its sphere of influence.

他们正逐渐加入欧盟影响圈。

Just take the Balkans. Croatia, Serbia

例如巴尔干半岛国家、克罗地亚、塞尔维亚、

Bosnia, they're not members of the E.U. yet.

波斯尼亚，它们还不是欧盟成员国。

But you can get on a German ICE train

但是你如果登上一辆德国ICE火车

and make it almost to Albania.

几乎可以到达阿尔巴尼亚。

In Bosnia you use the Euro currency already,

在波斯尼亚，你可以使用欧元，

and that's the only currency they're probably ever going to have.

也许这将是他们从此以后使用的唯一货币。

So, looking at other parts of Europe's periphery, such as North Africa.

让我们看一下欧洲的外围，例如北非。

On average, every year or two,

平均每年或者每两年，

a new oil or gas pipeline opens up under the Mediterranean,

会有一条新的石油或者天然气运输管道穿越地中海，

connecting North Africa to Europe.

将北非与欧洲连接到一起。

That not only helps Europe diminish its reliance

这不仅仅帮助欧洲减少了

on Russia for energy,

对俄罗斯在能源上的依赖，

but if you travel to North Africa today, you'll hear more and more people saying

而且如果你今天去北非旅游，你会听到越来越多的人说

that they don't really think of their region as the Middle East.

他们并不属于中东地区。

So in other words, I believe that President Sarkozy of France

也就是说，我非常认同法国总统萨克齐

is right when he talks about a Mediterranean union.

关于地中海联盟的观点。

Now let's look at Turkey and the Caucasus.

再来看一下土耳其，和高加索国家。

I mentioned Azerbaijan before.

我之前提到过阿塞拜疆。

That corridor of Turkey and the Caucasus

土耳其和高加索地区的那条走廊

has become the conduit for 20 percent

已经成为欧洲20%能源供应的

of Europe's energy supply.

通道。

So does Turkey really have to be a member of the European Union?

土耳其难道非得要成为欧盟成员国吗？

I don't think it does. I think it's already part of

我认为不然。我认为它已经是

a Euro-Turkish superpower.

欧洲-土耳其这个结构中的一个超级力量了。

So what's next? Where are we going to see borders change

那么接下来呢？我们会在哪些地方看到边界线的改变

and new countries born?

以及新国家的诞生？

Well, South Central Asia, South West Asia

南亚中心地区，西南亚地区

is a very good place to start.

是一个很有可能的地方。

Eight years after the U.S. invaded Afghanistan

在美国入侵阿富汗8年之后

there is still a tremendous amount of instability.

这个地区仍然充满了巨大的不稳定因素。

Pakistan and Afghanistan are still so fragile

巴基斯坦和阿富汗仍然如此脆弱

that neither of them have dealt constructively

以至于他们都没有实质性地处理

with the problem of Pashtun nationalism.

普什图人的民族主义问题。

This is the flag that flies in the minds

这是存在于2000万普什图人

of 20 million Pashtuns

心目中的国旗，

who live on both sides of the Afghan and Pakistan border.

他们住在阿富汗和巴基斯坦边界线的两边。

Let's not neglect the insurgency just to the south,

不要忘了在南部还有叛乱。

Balochistan. Two weeks ago,

俾路支。两周前，

Balochi rebels attacked a Pakistani military garrison,

俾路支叛军对巴基斯坦的一个军事守备部队进行了攻击

and this was the flag that they raised over it.

这就是他们在攻击时举起的旗帜。

The post-colonial entropy

后殖民时期国家解体

that is happening around the world is accelerating,

在全球发生并在加速。

and I expect more such changes to occur in the map

我预期地图上如此的改变会

as the states fragment.

随着这些国家的分解而越来越多。

Of course, we can't forget Africa.

当然我们不能忘了非洲。

53 countries, and by far the most number

53个国家，拥有世界地图上最多的充满

of suspiciously straight lines on the map.

疑问的直线型疆界的地方。

If we were to look at all of Africa

如果我们全盘地看一下非洲，

we could most certainly acknowledge far more,

我们可以毫无异议地看到比其他地方多得多的

tribal divisions and so forth.

诸如部落纷争之类的冲突。

But let's just look at Sudan, the second-largest country in Africa.

我就举苏丹的例子，非洲第二大国家。

It has three ongoing civil wars,

它有三场连绵不断的内战，

the genocide in Darfur, which you all know about,

达尔福尔的种族灭绝战，这大家都知道，

the civil war in the east of the country,

这个国家东部的内战，

and south Sudan.

还有苏丹南部地区的内战。

South Sudan is going to be having a referendum in 2011

南部苏丹将在2011年举行公投

in which it is very likely to vote itself independence.

很可能这次投票的结果将是独立。

Now let's go up to the Arctic Circle.

往北，到北极圈附近.

There is a great race on for energy resources

这里正上演着一场对北极海床底下能源的

under the Arctic seabed.

争夺战。

Who will win? Canada? Russia? The United States?

谁会胜利？加拿大？俄罗斯？还是美国？

Actually Greenland.

事实上格陵兰岛将是赢家。

Several weeks ago Greenland's [60,000] people

数周前，格陵兰岛的6万居民

voted themselves self-governance rights

投票表决，取得了从丹麦独立的

from Denmark.

自治权。

So Denmark is about to get a whole lot smaller.

因而丹麦将会缩小很多。

What is the lesson from all of this?

这里得出的教训是什么呢？

Geopolitics is a very unsentimental discipline.

地缘政治是一个非常冷酷的学科。

It's constantly morphing and changing the world,

它不断地改变世界,

like climate change.

好似气候变化。

And like our relationship with the ecosystem

正如我们与生态系统的关系一样，

we're always searching for equilibrium

我们总在寻找一种平衡

in how we divide ourselves across the planet.

我们如何在这个星球上分布。

Now we fear changes on the map.

我们害怕地图上的这些改变。

We fear civil wars, death tolls,

我们害怕战争、死亡，

having to learn the names of new countries.

以及熟悉新诞生的国家的名字等。

But I believe that the inertia of the existing borders that we have today

但我认为， 我们今天边界线要是一直存在下去的话

is far worse and far more violent.

更糟糕，会带来更多的暴力。

The question is how do we change those borders,

问题是我们该如何改变这些边界线，

and what lines do we focus on?

那些线条是我们要关注的？

I believe we focus on the lines that cross borders,

我认为我们应该关注那些跨越边界的线，

the infrastructure lines.

那些基础设施建设的线条，

Then we'll wind up with the world we want, a borderless one.

我们就能打造一个我们所畅想的世界，一个无国界的世界。

Thank you.

谢谢！

(Applause)

（掌声）