Parag Khanna maps the future of countries

譯者: Grace En-Tien Chang 張恩典 審譯者: Adrienne Lin

Do we live in a borderless world?

我們是生活在一個沒有國界的世界嗎?

Before you answer that, have a look at this map.

回答這問題前，請先看看這張地圖：

Contemporary political map shows

當今的政治地圖顯示

that we have over 200 countries in the world today.

我們的世界超過200個國家，

That's probably more than at any time in centuries.

這可能是好幾世紀以來國家數目最多的時期，

Now, many of you will object.

或許很多人會表示反對。

For you this would be a more appropriate map.

對於你們來說這可能是較適當的地圖。

You could call it TEDistan.

你可以稱它為TED國圖，

In TEDistan, there are no borders,

在TED國圖上沒有任何國界，

just connected spaces and unconnected spaces.

只有相連和沒有相連的空間。

Most of you probably reside in one of the 40 dots

大部分在場的人可能住在螢幕上

on this screen, of the many more

其中四十個亮點之一，

that represent 90 percent of the world economy.

它們代表了九成的世界經濟體。

But let's talk about the 90 percent of the world population

但我們來談談那九成

that will never leave the place in which they were born.

永遠不會離開他們出生地的人們

For them, nations, countries, boundaries, borders still matter a great deal,

對他們來說，民族、國家、邊界和國界仍相當重要，

and often violently.

甚至生死相關的重要。

Now here at TED, we're solving some of the great

在TED，我們試圖解決

riddles of science and mysteries of the universe.

一些在科學和宇宙中的重大謎團。

Well here is a fundamental problem we have not solved:

在這裡就有個我們還沒解決的根本問題:

our basic political geography.

我們最基本的政治地理。

How do we distribute ourselves around the world?

我們在世界各地是怎麼分布的?

Now this is important, because border conflicts

這相當重要，因為邊界上的爭鬥

justify so much of the world's military-industrial complex.

往往合理化當今許多軍事/武器產業體系。

Border conflicts can derail

邊界衝突會將

so much of the progress that we hope to achieve here.

我們在那裡許多努力達到的社會進展化為烏有。

So I think we need a deeper understanding

所以我想我們有必要更深層的思考

of how people, money, power,

人、財富、權力、

religion, culture, technology

宗教、文化和科技

interact to change the map of the world.

如何交互作用以改變我們的世界地圖。

And we can try to anticipate those changes,

我們可以試圖去為這些改變做準備，

and shape them in a more constructive direction.

讓它們能往更有建設性的方向發展。

So we're going to look at some maps of the past,

所以我們要看看一些過去的地圖、

the present and some maps you haven't seen

現在的地圖和你從未見過的地圖

in order to get a sense of where things are going.

來感受一下事情會怎麼樣發展。

Let's start with the world of 1945.

我們先從1945年的世界開始吧!

1945 there were just 100 countries in the world.

1945年的時候世界上只有100個國家，

After World War II, Europe was devastated,

而二戰後歐洲斷垣殘壁，

but still held large overseas colonies:

但仍持有大量的海外殖民地：

French West Africa, British East Africa, South Asia, and so forth.

法國有西非、英國有東非、南亞等等，

Then over the late '40s,

到四零年代尾聲，

'50s, '60s, '70s and '80s,

五、六、七和八零年代時，

waves of decolonization took place.

各地區開始一波波的脫離殖民，

Over 50 new countries were born.

超過五十個新國家在這時候誕生。

You can see that Africa has been fragmented.

你可以看到非洲被分的很散碎，

India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, South East Asian nations created.

印度、巴基斯坦、孟加拉和一些東南亞國家生成。

Then came the end of the Cold War.

再來就是冷戰結束，

The end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

冷戰結束和蘇聯的瓦解。

You had the creation of new states in Eastern Europe,

在東歐我們看到一些新國家建立，

the former Yugoslav republics and the Balkans,

原先的南斯拉夫和巴爾幹地區，

and the 'stans of central Asia.

還有中亞的各個尾音是"斯坦"的國家

Today we have 200 countries in the world.

今天我們世界上有兩百個國家，

The entire planet is covered

整個地球都被

by sovereign, independent nation-states.

有主權、獨立的國家覆蓋住。

Does that mean that someone's gain has to be someone else's loss?

這是不是說一些人的得必然是另外一些人的失呢？

Let's zoom in on one of the most strategic areas of the world,

我們把焦點放在世界上最有戰略意義的地方之一吧!

Eastern Eurasia.

歐洲大陸東部。

As you can see on this map,

如你所見，

Russia is still the largest country in the world.

世界上最大的國家仍是俄羅斯，

And as you know, China is the most populous.

也如你所知，中國是人口最多的，

And they share a lengthy land border.

兩國共享一個相當長的邊界，

What you don't see on this map

而你無法在這個地圖上看到的是

is that most of Russia's 150 million people

在俄羅斯的1.5億人中大多數

are concentrated in its western provinces

集中在俄羅斯的西部區域

and areas that are close to Europe.

和鄰近歐洲的地區，

And only 30 million people are in its eastern areas.

只有3千萬人住在其東部地區。

In fact, the World Bank predicts

事實上，世界銀行預測

that Russia's population is declining

俄羅斯的人口正在

towards about 120 million people

往大約1.2億人下降。

And there is another thing that you don't see on this map.

另外一個你在這張地圖所看不到的是：

Stalin, Khrushchev and other Soviet leaders

史達林、克魯曉夫和其他前蘇聯領導人

forced Russians out to the far east

曾經強迫俄羅斯人移居遠東地區

to be in gulags, labor camps,

的古拉格、勞動集中營、

nuclear cities, whatever the case was.

核試驗基地，等等。

But as oil prices rose,

但隨著油價上漲

Russian governments have invested in infrastructure

俄羅斯政府已開始投資建設基礎建設

to unite the country, east and west.

來結合國家的東西橫向

But nothing has more perversely impacted

這項政策對於俄羅斯的人口分布

Russia's demographic distribution,

造成很大的影響，

because the people in the east, who never wanted to be there anyway,

因為那些居住在東部的人，本來就不想住那裏，

have gotten on those trains and roads

現在他們有了火車和馬路

and gone back to the west.

就開始往西部遷移，

As a result, in the Russian far east today,

那就是為什麼東部俄羅斯

which is twice the size of India,

雖然是印度的兩倍大

you have exactly six million Russians.

目前只有6萬俄羅斯人。

So let's get a sense of what is happening in this part of the world.

所以我們可以看看這部分的世界正在發生甚麼事，

We can start with Mongolia, or as some call it, Mine-golia.

我們先以蒙古開始，或者有些人稱它為 "礦"古 (英文音似Mine)

Why do they call it that?

為什麼人們這麼稱呼它?

Because in Mine-golia, Chinese firms operate

因為在蒙古，中國的公司運作

and own most of the mines -- copper, zinc, gold --

並擁有大部份的礦井 - 鋁、鋅、黃金...

and they truck the resources south and east into mainland China.

然後他們將這些礦產運往南部和東部到中國。

China isn't conquering Mongolia.

中國不是在征服蒙古，

It's buying it.

他在併購他。

Colonies were once conquered. Today countries are bought.

殖民地曾經是被軍事攻占的，而現在的國家是被併購的。

So let's apply this principle to Siberia.

所以我們來將此原則套用到西伯利亞:

Siberia most of you probably think of

你們大部分想到西伯利亞應該是會想像

as a cold, desolate, unlivable place.

一個既寒冷、荒蕪又不適合人類居住的地方。

But in fact, with global warming and rising temperatures,

但事實上，因為全球暖化的溫度上升

all of a sudden you have vast wheat fields

在當地突然有廣大的麥田

and agribusiness, and grain being produced in Siberia.

和農業，稻穀在西伯利亞被生產。

But who is it going to feed?

但這是要餵養誰呢?

Well, just on the other side of the Amo River,

就是在漠河的另外一邊，

in the Heilongjiang and Harbin provinces of China,

中國的黑龍江等省那裡

you have over 100 million people.

我們有超過1億的人口，

That's larger than the entire population of Russia.

這比整個俄羅斯的人口都要多。

Every single year, for at least a decade or more,

至少十年的時間，每一年，

[60,000] of them have been voting with their feet,

有六萬人會離開這地方，

crossing, moving north and inhabiting this desolate terrain.

他們過境，往北移，移居到這個荒涼的地帶，

They set up their own bazaars and medical clinics.

建立他們自己的市集和診所，

They've taken over the timber industry

他們接管當地的伐木產業

and been shipping the lumber east, back into China.

將木材往東運，運回中國。

Again, like Mongolia,

就像蒙古，

China isn't conquering Russia. It's just leasing it.

中國不是在征服俄羅斯，只是在租借它。

That's what I call globalization Chinese style.

這是我所稱的中國式全球化。

Now maybe this is what the map of the region

所以這是這個區域

might look like in 10 to 20 years.

大概十或二十年後會長的樣子。

But hold on. This map is 700 years old.

但等等! 這張地圖七百多歲了!

This is the map of the Yuan Dynasty,

這是元朝的地圖，

led by Kublai Khan, the grandson of Genghis Khan.

在忽必烈(成吉思汗的孫子)掌權時的樣子。

So history doesn't necessarily repeat itself,

所以歷史未必會重演，

but it does rhyme.

但會循一定的模式重複發生

This is just to give you a taste of what's happening in this part of the world.

這就是給你嘗嘗，在世界的這個角落在發生的事。

Again, globalization Chinese style.

這又是中國式的全球化，

Because globalization opens up all kinds of ways for us to

因為全球化給我們開啟很多機會

undermine and change the way we think about political geography.

去顛覆並改變我們對於政治地理的了解。

So, the history of East Asia in fact,

所以在中亞的歷史中，

people don't think about nations and borders.

人們不太以國家和邊界來思考，

They think more in terms of empires and hierarchies,

而是以朝代和統治者，

usually Chinese or Japanese.

通常中國的或日本的。

Well it's China's turn again.

好，現在我們再看看中國，

So let's look at how China is re-establishing

看看中國如何重新在

that hierarchy in the far East.

遠東地區建立那樣的統治，

It starts with the global hubs.

這一切都起源於國際經貿中心，

Remember the 40 dots on the nighttime map

記得剛剛那夜間地圖的四十個亮點嗎?

that show the hubs of the global economy?

他指出的是在我們全球經濟體裡的經貿中心。

East Asia today has more of those global hubs

東亞現在有更多這樣的經貿中心

than any other region in the world.

甚過世界上任何一個地區。

Tokyo, Seoul, Beijing, Shanghai,

東京、首爾、北京、上海、

Hong Kong, Singapore and Sidney.

香港、新加坡、雪梨

These are the filters and funnels of global capital.

這些都是全球資金的過濾網，

Trillions of dollars a year are being brought into the region,

上以兆計的前每年都被帶入這些地區，

so much of it being invested into China.

許多是投資到中國。

Then there is trade.

再來有貿易，

These vectors and arrows represent ever stronger

這些箭頭顯示的是中國

trade relationships that China has

與當地其它國家

with every country in the region.

愈來愈緊密的關係。

Specifically, it targets Japan

最主要它瞄準日本、

and Korea and Australia,

韓國和澳洲。

countries that are strong allies of the United States.

與美國有深厚聯盟的國家。

Australia, for example, is heavily dependent

比如說澳洲對於外銷

on exporting iron ore and natural gas to China.

鐵礦和天然氣到中國有強烈的依賴性。

For poorer countries, China reduces tariffs

對於較窮的國家，中國降低關稅，

so that Laos and Cambodia can sell their goods more cheaply

這樣寮國和柬埔寨可以用更低廉的價格外銷產品，

and become dependent on exporting to China as well.

而因此對產品出口到中國也產生依賴性。

And now many of you have been reading in the news

相信你們很多人有在看新聞，

how people are looking to China

看人們怎麼看待中國

to lead the rebound, the economic rebound, not just in Asia, but potentially for the world.

將如何去領導經濟復甦，不只在亞洲，而是全世界。

The Asian free trade zone, almost free trade zone, that's emerging

亞洲漸漸形成的自由貿易區，幾乎是自由貿易區，

now has a greater trade volume than trade across the Pacific.

現在有比太平洋彼岸還大的經貿量，

So China is becoming the anchor of the economy in the region.

所以中國已漸漸成為此地區的靠山。

Another pillar of this strategy is diplomacy.

在這個策略之下另一個重點是外交，

China has signed military agreements with many countries in the region.

中國與該地區許多國家簽訂了軍事協定，

It has become the hub of diplomatic institutions

它已成為外交機構的中心，

such as the East Asian Community.

比如說東亞的社區。

Some of these organizations don't even have

有些這樣的組織會員甚至不包括

the United States as a member.

美國。

There is a treaty of nonaggression between countries,

各國之間建立了互不干涉條約，

such that if there were a conflict between China and the United States,

假使中國與美國發生衝突，

most countries vow to just sit it out,

大部分國家會宣誓中立，

including American allies like Korea and Australia.

包括韓國和澳大利亞等美國盟友。

Another pillar of the strategy,

在這策略的另一個重點，

like Russia, is demographic.

像俄羅斯一樣，是人口。

China exports business people, nannies, students,

中國向外輸出商人、保姆、學生、

teachers to teach Chinese around the region,

和老師，在整個區域內教授中文，

to intermarry and to occupy ever greater

彼此通婚，以及在各個經濟體中

commanding heights of the economies.

佔據史無前例的主導性地位。

Already ethnic Chinese people

已經可以看到中國人

in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia

在馬來西亞、泰國和印尼等國家

are the real key factors and drivers

成為了當地經濟不容忽視的

in the economies there.

關鍵因素和推動力。

Chinese pride is resurgent in the region

因此在這些地區，中國人的驕傲

as a result.

再次復甦

Singapore, for example, used to ban Chinese language education.

比如說新加坡曾經禁止學習中文，

Now it encourages it.

現在他們鼓勵學習中文。

If you add it all up what do you get?

如果你們把這些東西全部加起來你會得到甚麼結論?

Well, if you remember before World War II,

如果你記得，二次世界大戰前，

Japan had a vision

日本曾有一個願景，

for a greater Japanese co-prosperity sphere.

想建立一個日本大東亞共榮圈。

What's emerging today is what you might call

而現今正在漸漸浮現的你可以稱為

a greater Chinese co-prosperity sphere.

中國大東亞共榮圈。

So no matter what the lines on the map tell you

所以不管世界地圖如何告訴你這是

in terms of nations and borders,

國家的邊界，

what you really have emerging in the far east

在亞洲真正的狀況是，

are national cultures,

國家的文化，

but in a much more fluid, imperial zone.

但在一種更動態，帝國的趨向。

All of this is happening without firing a shot.

這一切就自然而然的發生了，

That's most certainly not the case in the Middle East

而在中東絕對不是這樣的狀態!

where countries are still very uncomfortable

在那裏國家對於

in the borders left behind by European colonialists.

歐洲殖民者遺留下來的國界還是相當不適應。

So what can we do to think about borders differently in this part of the world?

所以我們在那個地方對於國界有甚麼樣的見解?

What lines on the map should we focus on?

地圖上我們該注意哪些線?

What I want to present to you is what I call

我想要給你看的是

state building, day by day.

國家的建立，每日進度。

Let's start with Iraq.

我們以伊拉克為起點吧!

Six years after the U.S. invasion of Iraq,

在美國入侵伊拉克之後的第六年，

the country still exists more on a map than it does in reality.

這個國家在地圖上的存在，比現實還真實。

Oil used to be one of the forces holding Iraq together;

石油曾經是維繫伊拉克的要素之一，

now it is the most significant cause of the country's disintegration.

現在卻是此國家瓦解的重要原因。

The reason is Kurdistan.

這原因是因為庫德斯坦；

The Kurds for 3,000 years

庫德族三千年以來

have been waging a struggle for independence,

就在爭取獨立，

and now is their chance to finally have it.

而現在是他們獨立的契機。

These are pipeline routes, which emerge from Kurdistan,

這些是從庫德斯坦出來的管線，

which is an oil-rich region.

它們的區域富含石油。

And today, if you go to Kurdistan,

而當今，如果你進入庫德斯坦，

you'll see that Kurdish Peshmerga guerillas

你會看到庫德族的Peshmerga游擊隊

are squaring off against the Sunni Iraqi army.

正在跟伊拉克的遜尼軍隊作戰。

But what are they guarding?

但他們在守護甚麼?

Is it really a border on the map?

真的是地圖上的邊界嗎?

No. It's the pipelines.

不，是那些管線。

If the Kurds can control their pipelines, they can set the terms

如果庫德人可以控制管線，他們就可以控制

of their own statehood.

談他們國家建立的條件。

Now should we be upset about this, about the potential disintegration of Iraq?

我們應該為伊拉克可能的瓦解擔憂嗎?

I don't believe we should.

我並不認為。

Iraq will still be the second largest oil producer in the world,

伊拉克仍會是世界上第二大產油國，

behind Saudi Arabia.

第一是沙烏地阿拉伯，

And we'll have a chance to solve a 3,000 year old dispute.

而我們有機會解決一個維持三千年的爭議。

Now remember Kurdistan is landlocked.

注意，庫德斯坦四周皆是陸地，

It has no choice but to behave.

它不得不守規矩

In order to profit from its oil

為了能從石油獲益，

it has to export it through Turkey or Syria,

它需將石油輸出到其它國家，如土耳其、敘利亞

and other countries, and Iraq itself.

還有伊拉克本身，

And therefore it has to have amicable relations with them.

所以它與這些國家的關係必須維持好。

Now lets look at a perennial conflict in the region.

現在我們來看看此區另一個連年不斷的衝突，

That is, of course, in Palestine.

這當然是指巴勒斯坦:

Palestine is something of a cartographic anomaly

從地圖上看是一個畸形兒，

because it's two parts Palestinian, one part Israel.

因為它由兩部分巴勒斯坦和一部分以色列組成。

30 years of rose garden diplomacy

30年的玫瑰花園外交 (指白宮的玫瑰花園)

have not delivered us peace in this conflict.

並沒有給這裡的區域衝突中帶來和平。

What might? I believe that what might

那甚麼能給他們帶來和平呢? 我相信

solve the problem is infrastructure.

可以解決這問題的是基礎建設。

Today donors are spending billions of dollars on this.

今天，捐助者正花費數十億美金在此項目上。

These two arrows are an arc,

這兩個箭頭連成一條弧線，

an arc of commuter railroads and other infrastructure

一條由客運火車線和其它基礎設施連成的弧線

that link the West Bank and Gaza.

連接西岸和加薩地帶。

If Gaza can have a functioning port

如果加薩可以有一個可運作的港口，

and be linked to the West Bank, you can have a viable Palestinian state,

然後這個港口可以連接西岸，你就有一個可運作的巴勒斯坦國，

Palestinian economy.

巴勒斯坦經濟。

That, I believe, is going to bring peace to this particular conflict.

這，我相信，可以將和平帶到這個區域。

The lesson from Kurdistan and from Palestine

從庫德斯坦和巴勒斯坦我們可以得到的教訓是

is that independence alone, without infrastructure,

光有獨立，沒有基本建設

is futile.

是沒有用的。

Now what might this entire region look like

那我們想想這整個區域

if in fact we focus on other lines on the map besides borders,

如果我們不只專注在地圖上的國界，會有甚麼不一樣?

when the insecurities might abate?

不安感甚麼時候才會消除?

The last time that was the case was actually

我們最後看到這樣的例子是

a century ago, during the Ottoman Empire.

一個世紀前，奧圖曼圖耳其帝國的時候

This is the Hejaz Railway.

這是Hijaz鐵路線。

The Hejaz Railway ran from Istanbul to Medina via Damascus.

Hijaz鐵路線從伊斯坦堡出發，途經大馬士革，抵達麥地那。

It even had an offshoot running to Haifa

它甚至有一條支線可以抵達海法，

in what is today Israel, on the Mediterranean Sea.

位於今天的以色列，緊靠地中海。

But today the Hejaz Railway lies in tatters, ruins.

但是今天的Hijaz鐵路線破敗不堪。

If we were to focus on reconstructing these curvy lines on the map,

如果我們可以將地圖上這些曲線重新建造起來的話，

infrastructure, that cross the straight lines, the borders,

重建這些穿越直線、疆界的基礎建設，

I believe the Middle East would be a far more peaceful region.

我相信中東會成為一個遠比現在還和平的地區。

Now let's look at another part of the world,

讓我們將目光轉移到地球上的另外一個區域，

the former Soviet Republics of Central Asia, the 'stans.

位於中亞地區的前蘇聯地區，這些斯坦國。

These countries' borders originate from Stalin's decrees.

這些國家的邊界線，源自史達林頒布的法令，

He purposely did not want these countries to make sense.

他刻意將這些國家分割得七零八落，

He wanted ethnicities to mingle

他想讓不同種族混合

in ways that would allow him to divide and rule.

這樣分裂就容易統治。

Fortunately for them, most of their oil and gas resources

幸好這些國家大多數的石油和天然氣資源

were discovered after the Soviet Union collapsed.

在蘇聯瓦解後才被發現。

Now I know some of you may be thinking, "Oil, oil, oil.

現在我知道你們可能都在想: "油、油、油"

Why is it all he's talking about is oil?"

他為什麼一直講油?"

Well, there is a big difference in the way we used to talk about oil

注意，以前我們討論石油的方式

and the way we're talking about it now.

和現在我們所討論的方式是大不相同的。

Before it was, how do we control their oil?

以前是: 我們要怎麼控制他們的油?

Now it's their oil for their own purposes.

現在是他們的油，他們自己要用，

And I assure you it's every bit as important to them

而且我打包票這對他們

as it might have been to colonizers and imperialists.

和對當初的殖民、帝國主義者一樣重要。

Here are just some of the pipeline projections

這裡是一些計劃中的

and possibilities and scenarios

輸油管道和一些可能的情況

and routes that are being mapped out for the next several decades.

以及接下來幾十年可能的計畫 ，

A great deal of them.

這有許多。

For a number of countries in this part of the world,

對於這個區域上許多國家，

having pipelines is the ticket to becoming part of the global economy

管線是個能參與世界經濟體的門票

and for having some meaning

也是讓自己有存在感

besides the borders that they are not loyal to themselves.

在連它們自己都無法認同的邊界以外。

Just take Azerbaijan.

看看亞塞拜然的例子

Azerbaijan was a forgotten corner of the Caucuses,

亞塞拜然位於高加索一個被遺忘的角落

but now with the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline into Turkey,

但是隨著通往土耳其的Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan輸油管道，

it has rebranded itself as the frontier of the west.

它已重新將自己定義為西方的前哨。

Then there is Turkmenistan, which most people think of

再來是土庫曼(斯坦)，大多數人對這地方的印象是

as a frozen basket case.

天寒地凍毫無希望之地。

But now it's contributing gas across the Caspian Sea

但是現在它能穿越裡海，將天然氣

to provide for Europe,

輸往歐洲，

and even a potentially Turkmen-

甚至有可能建造土庫曼-

Afghan-Pakistan-India pipeline as well.

阿富汗-巴基斯坦-印度輸油管道。

Then there is Kazakhstan, which didn't even have a name before.

還有哈薩克(斯坦)，之前甚至沒有一個正式的名字。

It was more considered South Siberia during the Soviet Union.

在蘇聯時期它被稱作南西伯利亞。

Today most people recognize Kazakhstan

而現在大部分人都認為哈薩克是一個

as an emerging geopolitical player. Why?

新興的地緣政治角色。為什麼?

Because it has shrewdly designed pipelines to flow across the Caspian,

因為它機智地設計了穿越裡海的輸油管道，

north through Russia, and even east to China.

往北進入俄羅斯，甚至向西進入中國。

More pipelines means more silk roads, instead of the Great Game.

管道越多，意味著“絲綢之路”越多，而不再是(英俄19世紀)中亞大博弈。

The Great Game connotes dominance of one over the other.

大博弈是只被另一國家管轄，

Silk road connotes independence and mutual trust.

而絲綢之路代表著獨立和相互的信任。

The more pipelines we have, the more silk roads we'll have,

我們有更多管線，我們就會有更多絲路，

and the less of a dominant Great Game competition

有一個較不被他人主導的大博弈競賽

we'll have in the 21st century.

這是我們的二十一世紀。

Now let's look at the only part of the world that really has brought down its borders,

現在我們看看全世界唯一去除邊界的地區，

and how that has enhanced its strength.

和它如何因此而更加強健，

And that is, of course, Europe.

這就是歐洲。

The European Union began as just the coal and steel community of six countries,

歐洲聯盟剛開始只是六個國家間的煤鋼共同體，

and their main purpose was really to keep the rehabilitation of Germany

主要的目的只是為了讓德國的復甦

to happen in a peaceful way.

能以和平的方式進行。

But then eventually it grew into 12 countries,

不過它見見形成十二個國家，

and those are the 12 stars on the European flag.

和在歐盟旗幟上的十二顆星星。

The E.U. also became a currency block,

歐盟同時也成為一個貨幣體

and is now the most powerful trade block in the entire world.

而現在是整個世界最強大的貿易體。

On average, the E.U. has grown by one country per year

自從冷戰結束後，歐盟平均

since the end of the Cold War.

每年多一個國家，

In fact most of that happened on just one day.

其實所有的事幾乎在一夕間發生：

In 2004, 15 new countries joined the E.U.

2004年，十五個國家加入了歐盟，

and now you have what most people consider

而現在，我們有可以說是

a zone of peace spanning 27 countries

一個和平區，跨27國、

and 450 million people.

和4.5億人口。

So what is next? What is the future of the European Union?

所以接下來會怎麼樣? 歐盟的未來是甚麼?

Well in light blue, you see the zones

在你看到的淺藍色的區域

or the regions that are at least two-thirds

至少三分之二以上

or more dependent on the European Union

是必須仰賴歐盟

for trade and investment.

以進行貿易和投資。

What does that tell us? Trade and investment tell us

這告訴我們甚麼? 貿易和投資告訴我們

that Europe is putting its money where its mouth is.

歐洲並不是在紙上談兵，

Even if these regions aren't part of the E.U.,

即使這些區域並不是歐盟的一部分，

they are becoming part of its sphere of influence.

它們漸漸的成為其影響環的一部分。

Just take the Balkans. Croatia, Serbia

看看巴爾幹半島：克羅埃西亞、塞爾維亞、

Bosnia, they're not members of the E.U. yet.

波斯尼亞 ，他們還不是歐盟的成員，

But you can get on a German ICE train

但是你如果登上一輛德國ICE火車

and make it almost to Albania.

你幾乎可以到阿爾巴尼亞。

In Bosnia you use the Euro currency already,

在波斯尼亞，你可以使用歐元，

and that's the only currency they're probably ever going to have.

也許這將是他們從此以後的唯一貨幣。

So, looking at other parts of Europe's periphery, such as North Africa.

讓我們看一下歐洲的外圍，例如北非。

On average, every year or two,

平均每年或者每兩年，

a new oil or gas pipeline opens up under the Mediterranean,

會有一條新的石油或者天然氣運輸管道穿越地中海，

connecting North Africa to Europe.

將北非與歐洲連接到一起。

That not only helps Europe diminish its reliance

這不僅僅幫助歐洲減少了

on Russia for energy,

對俄羅斯在能源上的依賴，

but if you travel to North Africa today, you'll hear more and more people saying

而且如果你今天去北非旅遊，你會聽到越來越多的人

that they don't really think of their region as the Middle East.

說他們並不屬於中東地區。

So in other words, I believe that President Sarkozy of France

也就是說，我非常認同法國總統薩科齊

is right when he talks about a Mediterranean union.

對於地中海聯盟的觀點。

Now let's look at Turkey and the Caucasus.

再來看一下土耳其，和高加索國家。

I mentioned Azerbaijan before.

我之前提到過亞塞拜然，

That corridor of Turkey and the Caucasus

土耳其和高加索地區的那條走廊

has become the conduit for 20 percent

已經成為歐洲

of Europe's energy supply.

20%能源供應的通道。

So does Turkey really have to be a member of the European Union?

所以土耳其非得成為歐盟成員國嗎？

I don't think it does. I think it's already part of

我認為不然。我認為它已經是

a Euro-Turkish superpower.

歐洲-土耳其這個結構中的一個超級力量了。

So what's next? Where are we going to see borders change

那麼接下來呢？我們會在哪些地方看到邊界線的改變

and new countries born?

以及新國家的誕生？

Well, South Central Asia, South West Asia

南亞中心地區，西南亞地區

is a very good place to start.

是一個很有可能的地方。

Eight years after the U.S. invaded Afghanistan

在美國入侵阿富汗8年之後

there is still a tremendous amount of instability.

這個地區仍然充滿了巨大的不穩定性。

Pakistan and Afghanistan are still so fragile

巴基斯坦和阿富汗仍然如此脆弱

that neither of them have dealt constructively

以至於他們都沒有實質性地

with the problem of Pashtun nationalism.

處理普什圖人的民族主義問題。

This is the flag that flies in the minds

這是存在於2000萬普什圖人

of 20 million Pashtuns

心目中的國旗，

who live on both sides of the Afghan and Pakistan border.

他們住在阿富汗和巴基斯坦邊界線的兩邊。

Let's not neglect the insurgency just to the south,

不要忘了在南部還有動亂。

Balochistan. Two weeks ago,

在俾路支。兩週前，

Balochi rebels attacked a Pakistani military garrison,

俾路支叛軍攻擊了巴基斯坦的一個軍事守備部隊，

and this was the flag that they raised over it.

這就是他們在攻擊時舉起的旗幟。

The post-colonial entropy

後殖民時期國家的解體

that is happening around the world is accelerating,

在全球發生並在加速。

and I expect more such changes to occur in the map

我預期地圖上如此的改變

as the states fragment.

會隨著這些國家的分解而越來越多。

Of course, we can't forget Africa.

當然我們無法忘記非洲，

53 countries, and by far the most number

五十三個國家，和最多

of suspiciously straight lines on the map.

地圖上相當可疑的直線

If we were to look at all of Africa

如果我們看看整個非洲

we could most certainly acknowledge far more,

我們肯定能認識到那邊有(比地圖上國家)更多的

tribal divisions and so forth.

部落、族群分野。

But let's just look at Sudan, the second-largest country in Africa.

我們來看看蘇丹，非洲第二大國家：

It has three ongoing civil wars,

它有三個正在進行中的內戰，

the genocide in Darfur, which you all know about,

達佛(Darfur)的種族屠殺，這你們肯定聽過，

the civil war in the east of the country,

還有國家東部的內戰，

and south Sudan.

和南蘇丹。

South Sudan is going to be having a referendum in 2011

南蘇丹在2011年將會舉辦一個公投，

in which it is very likely to vote itself independence.

很有可能會選擇讓自己獨立。

Now let's go up to the Arctic Circle.

我們現在來看看極圈：

There is a great race on for energy resources

這裡正上演著一場對北極海床底下

under the Arctic seabed.

能源的爭奪戰。

Who will win? Canada? Russia? The United States?

誰會勝利？加拿大？俄羅斯？還是美國？

Actually Greenland.

事實上格陵蘭島將是贏家。

Several weeks ago Greenland's [60,000] people

數週前，格陵蘭島的6萬居民投票表決，

voted themselves self-governance rights

取得了從丹麥獨立

from Denmark.

的自治權。

So Denmark is about to get a whole lot smaller.

因而丹麥將會縮小很多。

What is the lesson from all of this?

這裡得出的教訓是什麼呢？

Geopolitics is a very unsentimental discipline.

地緣政治是一個非常冷酷的學科。

It's constantly morphing and changing the world,

它不斷地改變世界,

like climate change.

就如氣候變化。

And like our relationship with the ecosystem

正如我們與生態系統的關係一樣，

we're always searching for equilibrium

我們總在尋找一種

in how we divide ourselves across the planet.

我們如何在這星球上分布的平衡。

Now we fear changes on the map.

我們害怕地圖上的這些改變。

We fear civil wars, death tolls,

我們害怕戰爭、死亡，

having to learn the names of new countries.

以及需要去學習新的國家的名字等。

But I believe that the inertia of the existing borders that we have today

但我相信我們對當下存在的邊境所存有的無力感，

is far worse and far more violent.

是更糟糕、更暴力的。

The question is how do we change those borders,

問題是我們該如何去改變這些邊界，

and what lines do we focus on?

和我們應專注在哪些線上?

I believe we focus on the lines that cross borders,

我相信我們應專注在跨國界的線，

the infrastructure lines.

那些基礎建設線路，

Then we'll wind up with the world we want, a borderless one.

這樣我們才可以擁有一個我們想要的世界，一個沒有邊界的世界。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

(掌聲)