Nicholas Negroponte: The vision behind One Laptop Per Child

33,411 views ・ 2007-01-16

TED


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翻译人员: Bin Xu 校对人员: Wei Zhao
00:25
I've been at MIT for 44 years.
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我在麻省理工工作了44年。我还参加过第一届TED大会。
00:27
I went to TED I.
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00:29
There's only one other person here, I think, who did that.
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我想在座的各位中只有一个人有过这样的经历。
00:32
All the other TEDs --
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在所有其他的TED大会上——我参加了所有的TED,都是在Ricky的领导下——
00:34
and I went to them all, under Ricky's regime --
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00:36
I talked about what the Media Lab was doing,
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我讲的都是媒体实验室做了什么,
00:38
which today has almost 500 people in it.
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现在这所实验室已经有了将近500个人。
00:41
And if you read the press,
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大家要是读了报纸,会发现上星期报纸上说我退出了媒体实验室。
00:43
last week it actually said I quit the Media Lab.
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00:46
I didn't quit the Media Lab, I stepped down as chairman --
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我没有退出实验室,我只是不再做“主席”了——
00:50
which was a kind of ridiculous title, but someone else has taken it on --
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这个头衔有点滑稽,不过现在由另外的人担任了,
00:54
and one of the things you can do as a professor
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当教授就是有这么个好处,
00:57
is you stay on as a professor.
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那就是你一旦当上,就一直是教授。
00:59
And I will now do for the rest of my life the One Laptop Per Child,
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而从现在开始,我这一辈子要投身于每个儿童一台笔记本电脑项目,
01:03
which I've sort of been doing for a year and a half, anyway.
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这件事我已经做了一年半了。
01:06
So I'm going to tell you about this,
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所以,这次我就来说说这件事,
01:08
use my 18 minutes to tell you why we're doing it,
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在给我的18分钟时间里说说我为什么要做这件事,
如何做,以及我们正在做什么。
01:12
how we're doing it and then what we're doing.
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01:14
And at some point I'll even pass around
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讲话中间,我还会给大家
01:17
what the $100 laptop might be like.
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看一看100美元笔记本电脑是什么样的。
Chris让我说说一些重大的事。
01:23
I was asked by Chris to talk about some of the big issues,
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01:26
and so I figured I'd start with the three that at least drove me to do this.
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因此我想,我应该从促使我做这件事的三点认识开始。
01:31
And the first is pretty obvious.
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第一条非常明显。
01:34
It's amazing when you meet a head of state, and you say,
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有一件事很让人惊讶。当你会见某个国家元首,问
01:37
"What is your most precious natural resource?"
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“贵国最宝贵的自然资源是什么?”
01:40
They will not say "children" at first,
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他们最初不会说是儿童,
01:42
and then when you say, "children," they will pretty quickly agree with you.
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不过当你说是儿童后,他们很快会同意你的说法。
01:47
And so that isn't very hard.
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因此,这一条不很难理解。
01:49
(Laughter)
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每个人都同意,一些重大问题的解决方案不论是什么,
01:52
Everybody agrees that whatever the solutions are to the big problems,
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都会包括教育,有时只能靠教育,
01:57
they include education, sometimes can be just education
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02:01
and can never be without some element of education.
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而且无论如何都不能少了教育。
02:05
So that's certainly part of it.
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因此教育肯定是不可或缺的。
02:07
And the third is a little bit less obvious.
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第三条就不那么明显了。
02:09
And that is that we all in this room learned how to walk, how to talk,
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这间屋子里的诸位,在学习走路、说话的时候,
02:14
not by being taught how to talk, or taught how to walk,
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不是靠别人教给我们如何说话,或如何走路,
02:18
but by interacting with the world,
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而是通过和周围的世界互动,
02:20
by having certain results as a consequence of being able to ask for something,
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是因为我们能够去要东西,或是能够站起来,够到东西了,
02:24
or being able to stand up and reach it.
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通过这些行为导致某种特定的结果.
02:26
Whereas at about the age six, we were told to stop learning that way,
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可是在大约6岁的时候,我们被告知,不能这样学习了,
02:31
and that all learning from then on would happen through teaching,
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从那时开始要靠学校教育学习,
02:34
whether it's people standing up, like I'm doing now,
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这可能是有个人站在我们面前,就像我现在做的那样,或是通过书本,以及其他什么东西。
02:36
or a book, or something.
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02:38
But it was really through teaching.
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但确确实实是通过教而学。
02:40
And one of the things in general that computers have provided to learning
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通常说来,电脑能够为学习带来的一件事,
02:45
is that it now includes a kind of learning
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就是它能够提供一种特别的学习经历
02:48
which is a little bit more like walking and talking,
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这种学习有点像学习走路和说话,
02:52
in the sense that a lot of it is driven by the learner himself or herself.
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从某种意义上讲,主要是靠学习者自身的激励进行的。
02:58
So with those as the principles --
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因此,基于这些原则——
03:01
some of you may know Seymour Papert.
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诸位中可能有人想到Seymour Papert,
03:03
This is back in 1982, when we were working in Senegal.
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那是在1982年,我们当时在塞内加尔。
03:07
Because some people think that the $100 laptop just happened a year ago,
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有人可能以为100美元电脑只是一年前开始的,
03:12
or two years ago, or we were struck by lightning --
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或是2年前开始的,或是我们突发奇想开始做的。
03:15
this actually has gone back a long time, and in fact, back to the '60s.
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其实这件事已经做了很长时间,实际上可以上溯到1960年代。
03:20
Here we're in the '80s.
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这张照片是1980年代拍的。
03:22
Steve Jobs had given us some laptops. We were in Senegal.
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史蒂夫·乔布斯捐给我们一些笔记本电脑,我们是在塞内加尔。
03:26
It didn't scale
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这件事的规模没能扩大,但至少,它把电脑带到了第三世界国家,
03:27
but it at least was bringing computers to developing countries
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03:32
and learning pretty quickly that these kids,
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而且这些孩子学得很快——
03:35
even though English wasn't their language,
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虽然他们的语言不是英语,
03:37
the Latin alphabet barely was their language,
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甚至他们连拉丁字母都不大认识,
03:40
but they could just swim like fish.
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可是他们就像鱼儿入了水,
03:42
They could play these like pianos.
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他们就像弹钢琴一样玩这些电脑。
03:46
A little bit more recently, I got involved personally.
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更近一些时候,我亲自参加了这样的项目。
03:50
And these are two anecdotes --
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这里有两段故事——其中的一段是在柬埔寨。
03:52
one was in Cambodia,
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我们选择的村庄没有电,没有自来水,没有电视,也没有电话,
03:55
in a village that has no electricity, no water, no television, no telephone,
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03:59
but has broadband Internet now.
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但是现在却有了宽带互联网。
04:01
And these kids, their first English word is "Google"
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这些孩子会说的第一个英语词是“Google”,
他们只知道Skype。他们从来没有听说过普通的电话。
04:05
and they only know Skype.
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04:07
They've never heard of telephony.
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04:09
They just use Skype.
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他们只用Skype。
04:11
And they go home at night --
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晚上回到家,他们可以通过宽带上网
04:13
they've got a broadband connection in a hut that doesn't have electricity.
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虽然茅屋里并没有电。
04:17
The parents love it, because when they open up the laptops,
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家长们都很喜欢这东西,因为孩子们一打开电脑,
04:19
it's the brightest light source in the house.
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电脑就成了屋子里最亮的光源。
04:22
And talk about where metaphors and reality mix --
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现在我来讲一讲想象和现实是如何交汇的——
04:25
this is the actual school.
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这就是那所学校。
04:28
In parallel with this, Seymour Papert got the governor of Maine
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与此同时,Seymour Papert还说服缅因州州长
04:33
to legislate one laptop per child in the year 2002.
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通过了一项法案,从2002年起为每个儿童提供一台电脑。
04:39
Now at the time, I think it's fair to say that 80 percent of the teachers were --
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当时,我觉得可以说百分之八十的教师都——
04:44
let me say, apprehensive.
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——可以说是忧心忡忡。
04:45
Really, they were actually against it.
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真的,他们当时确实是反对这件事。
04:47
And they really preferred that the money would be used
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他们更希望这笔钱能用来
04:50
for higher salaries, more schools, whatever.
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给他们涨工资,建几所新学校,等等。
04:52
And now, three and a half years later, guess what?
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现在,三年半过去了,猜猜发生了什么?
04:57
They're reporting five things: drop of truancy to almost zero,
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他们报告说有五大变化。
逃课现象几乎消失了,家长会到会的人多了——
05:03
attending parent-teacher meetings --
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05:05
which nobody did and now almost everybody does --
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过去没有人来,现在几乎所有的家长都来——
05:07
drop in discipline problems, increase in student participation.
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违反纪律的现象少了,学生的参与度提高了。
05:11
Teachers are now saying it's kind of fun to teach.
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老师们现在说教学很有乐趣;
05:14
Kids are engaged -- they have laptops! --
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孩子们积极参与。他们都有笔记本电脑。
05:17
and then the fifth, which interests me the most,
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第五点我觉得最有趣,
05:19
is that the servers have to be turned off at certain times at night
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那就是到了晚上某个时间,他们必须把服务器关上。
05:22
because the teachers are getting too much email
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因为老师们收到的电子邮件太多了
05:25
from the kids asking them for help.
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许许多多的孩子请求帮助。
05:27
So when you see that kind of thing --
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因此,当大家看到这些实例的时候,就知道这件事已经无需再做试验。
05:29
this is not something that you have to test.
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05:31
The days of pilot projects are over, when people say,
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项目的试验阶段已经过去了,所以当有人说,
05:34
"We'd like to do three or four thousand in our country to see how it works."
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“嗯,我们想先在我们国家做三四千人的试验,看看效果如何。”
05:38
Screw you. Go to the back of the line and someone else will do it,
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去你的吧。一边儿去。自然有别的愿意参与的来做。
05:41
and then when you figure out that this works, you can join as well.
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当你想明白了,这事儿行得通的时候,再来加入吧。
05:45
And this is what we're doing.
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我们现在就是这么做的。
05:48
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(笑声)(掌声)
05:50
So, One Laptop Per Child was formed about a year and a half ago.
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因此,每个儿童一台笔记本电脑计划形成于大约一年半以前。
这是一个非盈利组织。它筹集了两千万美元
05:55
It's a nonprofit association.
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05:57
It raised about 20 million dollars
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05:59
to do the engineering to just get this built,
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进行工程开发,然后进行生产。
06:03
and then have it produced afterwards.
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06:05
Scale is truly important.
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规模非常的重要。
06:08
And it's not important because you can buy components at a lower price, OK?
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规模之所以重要,并不是因为这样可以以更低的价格购买零部件,明白吗?
06:14
It's because you can go to a manufacturer --
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而是因为这样的话你就可以跟生产商谈——
06:17
and I will leave the name out --
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这里我就不说那家生产商的名字了——
06:19
but we wanted a small display,
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我当时说我们想要比较小的显示屏,色彩还原不必完美,
06:22
doesn't have to have perfect color uniformity.
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06:26
It can even have a pixel or two missing.
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甚至可以有一两个坏点,也无需那么亮。
06:28
It doesn't have to be that bright.
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06:31
And this particular manufacturer said,
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结果这家生产商说:
06:33
"We're not interested in that. We're interested in the living room.
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“哦,可是我们对此不感兴趣。我们感兴趣的是客厅电脑。
06:36
We're interested in perfect color uniformity.
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我们希望有完美的色彩还原。
我们想造的是大显示屏,亮显示屏。
06:39
We're interested in big displays, bright displays.
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06:41
You're not part of our strategic plan."
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你不在我们的战略规划里。”
06:44
And I said, "That's kind of too bad, because we need 100 million units a year."
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于是我说:“哦,那真是可惜。
因为我们一年就需要一亿部。”
06:47
(Laughter)
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结果他们说:“哦,也许我们可以成为你们的战略规划的一部分。”
06:49
And they said, "Oh, well, maybe we could become part of your strategic plan."
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06:53
And that's why scale counts.
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这就是规模的重要性之所在。
06:56
And that's why we will not launch this
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因此,首批达不到500到1000万部,我们是不会发布这种电脑的。
06:58
without five to 10 million units in the first run.
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07:02
And the idea is to launch with enough scale
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我们的理念是,通过足够大的规模
07:05
that the scale itself helps bring the price down,
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让规模自身把价格压下来,
07:07
and that's why I said seven to 10 million there.
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因此这里我说到是700到1000万部。
07:11
And we're doing it without a sales-and-marketing team.
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而且我们做这件事不需要市场销售队伍。
07:15
I mean, you're looking at the sales-and-marketing team.
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我的意思是,大家可能会问我们的销售队伍在哪儿。
07:17
We will do it by going to seven large countries
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我们是和7个国家讨论这件事,希望他们能够同意发布
07:21
and getting them to agree and launch it,
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07:24
and then the others can follow.
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其他的国家可以效仿。
07:26
We have partners.
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我们也有合作伙伴。大家不难猜到谷歌是其中一家,
07:28
It's not hard to guess Google would be one.
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07:30
The others are all playing to pending.
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其他的还都没确定。
这件事媒体业报道很多次了。
07:34
And this has been in the press a great deal.
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07:37
It's the so-called Green Machine that we introduced with Kofi Annan
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这就是所谓的绿色电脑,我们是和安南一起发布的
那是在突尼斯,在11月举行的世界首脑峰会上。
07:43
in November at the World Summit that was held in Tunisia.
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07:47
Now once people start looking at this, they say, "Ah, this is a laptop project."
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有的人一看到这个电脑,会说,啊,这是个笔记本电脑项目。
07:53
Well, no, it's not a laptop project. It's an education project.
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不对,这不是一个笔记本电脑项目。这是一个教育项目。
07:56
And the fun part -- and I'm quite focused on it --
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最有趣的一点——我对此很关注——
08:00
I tell people I used to be a light bulb, but now I'm a laser --
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我跟人们说,我过去像灯泡一样有很多新点子照亮别人,现在我是激光。
08:04
I'm just going to get that thing built, and it turns out it's not so hard.
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我一定要造出这种电脑,
而且事实证明这不是那么难。
08:10
Because laptop economics are the following:
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因为笔记本电脑业的经营奥秘是这样的:
这里我指出是百分之五十,其实更像是百分之六十。
08:13
I say 50 percent here -- it's more like 60,
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08:16
60 percent of the cost of your laptop
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大家购买笔记本电脑所花的钱,有百分之六十是付给了销售、市场营销、渠道以及利润等。
08:18
is sales, marketing, distribution and profit.
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08:20
Now we have none of those, OK?
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现在我们把这些都拿掉。
08:23
None of those figure into our cost,
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所有这些数字都不在我们的成本里。
08:26
because first of all, we sell it at cost, and the governments distribute it.
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因为,首先,我们以成本价销售,并且通过政府来发行。
08:30
It gets distributed to the school system like a textbook.
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就像课本一样,发行到学校。
08:34
So that piece disappears.
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因此这一块就没有了,现在剩下的只是显示器以及其他的部件。
08:36
Then you have display and everything else.
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08:39
Now the display on your laptop costs,
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笔记本电脑上的显示器的成本,粗略算来,
08:42
in rough numbers, 10 dollars a diagonal inch.
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大约是每英寸(对角线长度)10美元。
08:47
That can drop to eight; it can drop to seven
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这个价格有可能降到8美元或7美元。
08:50
but it's not going to drop to two, or to one and a half,
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但是却不会一下子降到2美元或1.5美元,
08:53
unless we do some pretty clever things.
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除非我们能有什么重大突破。
让我们感兴趣的是剩下的部分——那块棕色的部分,
08:57
It's the rest -- that little brown box -- that is pretty fascinating,
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09:01
because the rest of your laptop is devoted to itself.
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因为笔记本电脑其余的部分都是为自己而存在的。
09:06
It's a little bit like an obese person
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这有点像一个胖人,必须把大部分
09:09
having to use most of their energy to move their obesity.
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大部分的体能用于移动自己肥胖的身子。明白吗?
09:12
(Laughter)
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09:14
And we have a situation today which is incredible.
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我们现在的处境就有点匪夷所思。
自从笔记本电脑问世,我就开始用这种东西。
09:19
I've been using laptops since their inception.
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09:22
And my laptop runs slower, less reliably and less pleasantly
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可是一直以来,我的笔记本电脑越来越慢,越来越不稳定,越来越不让我满意。
09:28
than it ever has before.
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09:30
And this year is worse.
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今年情况就更糟了。
09:32
(Applause)
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听了这话,有人鼓掌,有时还有人站起来喝彩,我要说,
09:33
People clap, sometimes you even get standing ovations,
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09:36
and I say, "What the hell's wrong with you? Why are we all sitting there?"
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“大家都怎么了?我们为什么坐在这里坐视这一切?”
09:40
And somebody -- to remain nameless -- called our laptop a "gadget" recently.
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而且有个我不愿指名道姓的人最近还把我们的笔记本电脑叫做“电玩”。
我听了之后说,老天,我们的笔记本电脑可是运行飞快的。
09:47
And I said, "God, our laptop's going to go like a bat out of hell.
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09:50
When you open it up, it's going to go 'bing.'"
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当你打开它,它会嘭的一下子亮起来,就开了,就能用了。
09:52
It'll be on.
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09:54
It'll be just like it was in 1985,
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就像在1985年,大家刚买回来的苹果的Mac512一样。
09:58
when you bought an Apple Macintosh 512.
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10:02
It worked really well.
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它非常好用。
10:04
And we've been going steadily downhill.
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我们一直以来都是在走下坡路。
10:07
Now, people ask all the time what it is.
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大家一直在问,我们的电脑配置是什么样的。
10:11
That's what it is.
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就是这个样子的。
10:13
The two pieces that are probably notable: it'll be a mesh network,
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值得关注的两点,是它会使用网状网络,
10:18
so when the kids open up their laptops, they all become a network,
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所以当孩子们一开机,他们就都连成一个网络,
10:22
and then just need one or two points of backhaul.
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然后就只需要1到2点的空载传输。
10:25
You can serve a couple of thousand kids with two megabits.
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有两兆的带宽,就足够几千个孩子用的。
10:28
So you really can bring into a village,
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因此很容易把它部署到村庄,
10:31
and then the villages can connect themselves,
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整个村庄就能联网,
10:34
and you really can do it quite well.
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这样就能用得很好。
10:37
The dual mode display --
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另外一点是双模式显示屏——这样设计是为了让它既能在室外使用——
10:39
the idea is to have a display that both works outdoors --
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10:43
isn't it fun using your cell phone outdoors in the sunlight?
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大家在室外使用手机的时候有没有遇到问题?
10:47
Well, you can't see it.
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对了,屏幕看不清。
10:48
And one of the reasons you can't see it
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之所以看不清,其中一个原因在于手机是背光照明的,
10:51
is because it's backlighting most of the time, most cell phones.
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绝大部分手机都是。
10:55
Now, what we're doing is, we're doing one that will be both frontlit and backlit.
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因此,我们要做的是,我们要设计一种既使用背光,又使用反射光的屏幕。
10:59
And whether you manually switch it or you do it in the software
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置于到底是手动切换还是通过软件切换还没最后决定。
11:03
is to be seen.
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不过在使用背光的时候,它是彩色的,
11:05
But when it's backlit, it's color.
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11:07
And when it's frontlit, it's black and white
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使用反射光的时候,就是黑白的了,分辨率高了三倍。
11:09
at three times the resolution.
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这样的显示模式是否已经设计完成了?还没。
11:11
Is it all worked out? No.
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11:13
That's why a lot of our people are more or less living in Taiwan right now.
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所以现在我们还有很多人住在台湾。
11:18
And in about 30 days, we'll know for sure whether this works.
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再过一个月我们就能知道这是否行得通了。
11:23
Probably the most important piece there
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也许最重要的一点,
11:27
is that the kids really can do the maintenance.
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是孩子们自己就能进行维护。
11:30
And this is again something that people don't believe,
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许多人对此也是将信将疑,
11:33
but I really think it's quite true.
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但我很确定,这一点没有问题。
11:36
That's the machine we showed in Tunis.
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这就是我们在突尼斯展示的电脑,
11:41
This is more the direction that we're going to go.
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而这是我们要设计的更多的使用方式。
11:44
And it's something that we didn't think was possible.
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原来我们也曾以为这些都不可能呢。
11:47
Now, I'm going to pass this around.
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现在我把这个机器往下传一下。
11:51
This isn't a design, OK?
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这不是设计图。
11:53
So this is just a mechanical engineering sort of embodiment of it
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这只是一个工程模型,供大家把玩一下。
11:58
for you to play with.
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11:59
And it's clearly just a model.
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这显然只是个模型。
12:01
The working one is at MIT.
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能够真正使用的原型在MIT呢。
我把这个先交给这位帅哥,请他往下传。
12:04
I'm going to pass it to this handsome gentleman.
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12:07
At least you can decide whether it goes left or --
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然后你再决定往哪儿传——
12:09
Chris Anderson: Before you do it, for the people down in simulcast --
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哦,同时联播。抱歉,我忘了。好的,摄像机在哪儿呢?
12:13
Nicholas Negroponte: Sorry! I forgot. CA: Just show it off a bit.
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12:16
So wherever the camera is -- OK, good point. Thank you, Chris.
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对,好主意。谢谢你,Chris。
12:19
The idea was that it would be not only a laptop,
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我们的想法是,这个机器并不仅仅是台笔记本电脑,
12:22
but that it could transform into an electronic book.
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而是可以变化一下,变成一部电子书。
12:26
So it's sort of an electronic book.
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这样就像电子书了。
12:28
This is where when you go outside, it's in black and white.
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这样可以在户外,以黑白模式显示。
12:30
The games buttons are missing,
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游戏按钮在这里,没做上。但是它也可以当游戏机用,当电子书读。
12:32
but it'll also be a games machine,
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12:34
book machine.
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12:36
Set it up this way, and it's a television set.
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这样放置,它就成了一台电视机。
12:38
Etc., etc. -- is that enough for simulcast? OK, sorry.
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等等等等——这些演示够了吗?好的,抱歉。
我把它交给Jim吧,请他决定往下怎么传。好的。
12:45
I'll let Jim decide which way to send it afterwards.
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12:48
OK. Seven countries.
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七个国家。(笑声)
12:49
(Laughter)
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12:51
I say "maybe" for Massachusetts, because they actually have to do a bid.
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我说马萨诸塞州有可能,是因为他们得进行招标。
法律要求他们必须招标等等。
12:56
By law you've got to bid, and so on and so forth.
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因此还不能说他们肯定能。
12:59
So I can't quite name them.
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13:00
In the other cases, they don't have to do bids.
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其他的个例中,他们就无需招标。他们可以做出决定。
13:03
They can decide --
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13:04
it's the federal government in each case.
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每个案例所涉及的都是中央政府。
13:06
It's kind of agonizing,
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这有点困难,因为好多人说:
13:08
because a lot of people say, "Let's do it at the state level,"
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“要不我们在州一级做这件事吧。”
当然,这是因为州比中央政府灵活,因为其规模较小。
13:11
because states are more nimble than the feds, just because of size.
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可是我们考虑过。
13:16
And yet we count.
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13:17
We're really dealing with the federal government.
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我们就是在跟中央政府谈。
13:19
We're really dealing with ministries of education.
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在和各国的教育部门谈。
13:21
And if you look at governments around the world,
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大家要是看一看世界各国的政府,
13:24
ministries of education tend to be the most conservative,
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就会发现教育部往往是最保守的,
13:28
and also the ones that have huge payrolls.
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也是冗员最多的。
13:32
Everybody thinks they know about education,
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里面所有的人都自以为自己懂教育,
其官场文化积淀甚深。
13:35
a lot of culture is built into it as well.
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13:37
It's really hard. And so it's certainly the hard road.
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这非常难。因此这条路充满艰难险阻。
13:41
If you look at the countries, they're pretty geoculturally distributed.
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大家再看看这些国家,会发现他们地理位置分布在世界各地。
13:46
Have they all agreed? No, not completely.
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他们都同意了吗?不,还没有完全同意;
13:48
Probably Thailand, Brazil and Nigeria
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可能泰国、巴西和尼日利亚是其中最积极的三个国家,
13:50
are the three that are the most active and most agreed.
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也最同意这项计划。
13:54
We're purposely not signing anything with anybody
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我们刻意暂时不跟任何人签署任何协议
13:57
until we actually have the working ones.
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我们要等到能工作的样机出来之后再签。
13:59
And since I visit each one of those countries
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我几乎每隔三个月就要访问这些国家一次,
14:02
within at least every three months,
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14:04
I'm just going around the world every three weeks.
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这样每三个星期我就要环游世界一圈。
14:07
Here's sort of the schedule
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这里是我们的大体计划,
14:08
and I put at the bottom we might give some away free in two years at this meeting.
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在最下面我说两年后在TED大会上我可能发放一些免费的电脑。
14:15
Everybody says it's a $100 laptop --
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大家都说,这个100美元电脑你做不成的。
14:18
you can't do it.
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14:19
Well, guess what, we're not.
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知道吗?我们确实做不到。
14:21
We're coming in probably at 135, to start, then drift down.
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我们现在的价格大约在135美元,然后再逐渐降低。
14:26
And that's very important,
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这一点很重要,
14:27
because so many things hit the market at a price and then drift up.
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因为市场上有很多因素影响价格,使价格升高。
要是亏本经营,那么顾客一旦对此感兴趣,
14:33
It's kind of the loss leader,
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14:34
and then as soon as it looks interesting,
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销售者又承受不了了,那样就无法形成规模了。
14:37
it can't be afforded, or it can't be scaled out.
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14:40
So we're targeting 50 dollars in 2010.
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我们的目标是到2010年使价格降到50美元。
14:43
The gray market's a big issue.
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灰市是一个大问题。其中一个办法——只说一种——
14:45
And one of the ways -- just one --
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14:47
but one of the ways to help in the case of the gray market
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一种对付灰市的办法
14:51
is to make something that is so utterly unique --
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是把商品做得非常特殊。
14:54
It's a little bit like the fact that automobiles --
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这有点像汽车——
在美国,每天都有数千辆汽车被盗,
14:58
thousands of automobiles are stolen every day in the United States.
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15:01
Not one single post-office truck is stolen.
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但是没有一辆邮车被盗。为什么?
15:04
(Laughter)
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15:05
And why?
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15:07
Because there's no market for post-office trucks.
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因为没有邮车销赃的市场。
15:09
It looks like a post-office truck.
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它看起来就像邮车。
15:11
You can spray paint it. You can do anything you want.
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你可以重新喷漆,可以想尽办法改装,但它就是像邮车。
15:13
I just learned recently: in South Africa, no white Volvos are stolen.
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最近我刚了解到:在南非,从没有人偷白色沃尔沃。
15:17
Period. None. Zero.
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一个也没有。零记录。
15:19
So we want to make it very much like a white Volvo.
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因此我们想把我们的笔记本电脑做得像白色沃尔沃。
15:24
Each government has a task force.
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每个政府都个行动小组。这一点可能让人不那么感兴趣,
15:26
This perhaps is less interesting,
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15:28
but we're trying to get the governments to all work together
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但是我们力图让所有的政府都协同工作,这一点很难。
15:31
and it's not easy.
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我们项目的经营目标是从中央政府开始,
15:34
The economics of this is to start with the federal governments
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15:39
and then later, to subsequently go to other --
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然后再推进到其他领域——
——比如儿童之间结对子互帮互助,
15:46
whether it's child-to-child funding,
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15:48
so a child in this country buys one for a child in the developing world,
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这个国家的某个儿童可以购买了捐给第三世界国家的一个儿童,
结对子可以是同性别的,也可以是同龄的。
15:53
maybe of the same gender, maybe of the same age.
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15:56
An uncle gives a niece or a nephew that as a birthday present.
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也可以是叔叔给侄子侄女买个生日礼物。
16:00
I mean, there are all sorts of things that will happen,
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有各种各样的形式。
16:02
and they'll be very, very exciting.
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这些形式都会很吸引人。
16:04
And everybody says -- I say -- it's an education project.
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每个人都说——是我说——这是一个教育项目。
16:09
Are we providing the software?
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我们是否提供软件?
16:11
The answer is:
305
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回答是,系统本身带有软件,
16:13
The system certainly has software,
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16:15
but no, we're not providing the education content.
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但是我们不会提供教育内容。
16:18
That is really done in the countries.
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这个由各个国家来做。
16:22
But we are certainly constructionists.
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但我们显然是建设者。
16:24
And we certainly believe in learning by doing
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我们相信通过做可以学,
16:26
and everything from Logo, which was started in 1968,
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比如1968年开始的Logo,
16:30
to more modern things, like Scratch, if you've ever even heard of it,
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一直到更现代的Scratch之类的东西,要是大家听说过的话,
16:35
are very, very much part of it.
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也是这其中的一部分。
16:37
And that's the rollout.
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这是首次展示。
16:40
Are we dreaming? Is this real?
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我们在做梦吗?这是真的吗?这确实是真的。
16:43
It actually is real.
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16:45
The only criticism, and people really don't want to criticize this,
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惟一的批评,而且人们真的不想批评这件事,
16:50
because it is a humanitarian effort, a nonprofit effort
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因为这是一项人道主义项目,是一个非赢利工作,
16:54
and to criticize it is a little bit stupid, actually.
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批评这件事显得不够明智。
16:58
(Laughter)
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16:59
But the one thing that people could criticize was,
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但是有一件事人们确实会批评,
17:05
"Great idea, but these guys can't do it."
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那就是,想法不错,但这些人做不成。
17:09
And that could either mean these guys, professors and so on couldn't do it,
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这里的意思可以是这些人,这些秀才教授们成不了事,
17:14
or that it's not possible.
324
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1976
或者是这件事本身不可能做到。
17:16
Well, on December 12, a company called Quanta agreed to build it,
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12月12号,广达电脑公司同意制造这款电脑,
17:21
and since they make about one-third of all the laptops on the planet today,
326
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4936
全球三分之一的笔记本电脑都是这家公司生产的,
17:26
that question disappeared.
327
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1576
因此上面的问题也就不存在了。
17:28
So it's not a matter of whether it's going to happen.
328
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3216
因此这不再是它能否做成的问题。它马上就能做成。
17:31
It is going to happen.
329
1051520
1216
17:32
And if it comes out at 138 dollars, so what?
330
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4420
假如它的价格在138美元,那又怎样?
17:37
If it comes out six months late, so what?
331
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3026
假如它晚了半年才发布,那又怎样?
17:40
That's a pretty soft landing.
332
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1700
这是一个漂亮的软着陆。谢谢各位。
17:41
Thank you.
333
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1560
(掌声)
17:43
(Applause)
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