Nicholas Negroponte: The vision behind One Laptop Per Child

譯者: Michelle Fan 審譯者: Jenny Chen

I've been at MIT for 44 years.

我在MIT待了44年 參加過第一屆TED

I went to TED I.

There's only one other person here, I think, who did that.

我想在場應該只有一位有同等資歷

All the other TEDs --

在其他屆的演講中 -我從没缺席過TED-

and I went to them all, under Ricky's regime --

I talked about what the Media Lab was doing,

我解釋了媒體實驗室的工作內容

which today has almost 500 people in it.

實驗室現在大約有500名研究人員

And if you read the press,

媒體上週說我已經退出實驗室

last week it actually said I quit the Media Lab.

I didn't quit the Media Lab, I stepped down as chairman --

我實際上不是退出 只是卸下主席的職位

which was a kind of ridiculous title, but someone else has taken it on --

這頭銜有點可笑 不過已有人接任

and one of the things you can do as a professor

當教授的好處之一

is you stay on as a professor.

就是一日為教授 終生為教授

And I will now do for the rest of my life the One Laptop Per Child,

我下半輩子將獻給「一個孩子、一台筆電」

which I've sort of been doing for a year and a half, anyway.

畢竟這是我已經推廣一年半的計畫

So I'm going to tell you about this,

也是今天演講的主題

use my 18 minutes to tell you why we're doing it,

在這18分鐘內 我將告訴各位我的動機

計畫如何運作 以及現在的進度

how we're doing it and then what we're doing.

And at some point I'll even pass around

等一下各位甚至有機會看看

what the $100 laptop might be like.

100美元的筆電到底長什麼樣子

克里斯希望我分享幾個重要議題

I was asked by Chris to talk about some of the big issues,

and so I figured I'd start with the three that at least drove me to do this.

因此我先講三個促成這個計畫的動機

And the first is pretty obvious.

第一個顯而易見

It's amazing when you meet a head of state, and you say,

當你與一國元首會晤 你問他：

"What is your most precious natural resource?"

「貴國最珍貴的天然資源是什麼？」

They will not say "children" at first,

他的第一個答案可能不是兒童

and then when you say, "children," they will pretty quickly agree with you.

但你提出時 他們十之八九都贊同

And so that isn't very hard.

(1. 兒童是最珍貴的天然資源) 所以要說服他們一點也不難

(Laughter)

(2. 消除貧困、戰爭、污染的良方是教育) 眾所皆知，要解決貧困國家的問題

Everybody agrees that whatever the solutions are to the big problems,

(3. 除了接受教導 還有別的學習途徑) 教育是必須 甚至是唯一的必須

they include education, sometimes can be just education

and can never be without some element of education.

要解決問題 或多或少必須依賴教育

So that's certainly part of it.

所以提供教育當然是計畫目的之一

And the third is a little bit less obvious.

第三個動機比較不明顯

And that is that we all in this room learned how to walk, how to talk,

這跟所有人學會走路、說話的模式有關

not by being taught how to talk, or taught how to walk,

沒人教我們如何說話或走路

but by interacting with the world,

但與外界互動後 自然就學會了

by having certain results as a consequence of being able to ask for something,

像是開口要求 物品就到了手裡

or being able to stand up and reach it.

或是站起來 就搆得到物品

Whereas at about the age six, we were told to stop learning that way,

但到大概六歲時 這種學習模式卻終止了

and that all learning from then on would happen through teaching,

從那之後所有的學習都透過教導

whether it's people standing up, like I'm doing now,

不管是藉由像這樣聽講、讀書或其他方法

or a book, or something.

But it was really through teaching.

都透過教導而傳授

And one of the things in general that computers have provided to learning

而基本上 電腦對學習的貢獻之一

is that it now includes a kind of learning

在於它提供的學習模式

which is a little bit more like walking and talking,

有點像學習走路和說話

in the sense that a lot of it is driven by the learner himself or herself.

主導權是握在學習者自己手上的

So with those as the principles --

有這幾個動機作為原則

some of you may know Seymour Papert.

在座可能有人認識西摩派柏

This is back in 1982, when we were working in Senegal.

這張照片攝於1982年塞內加爾

Because some people think that the $100 laptop just happened a year ago,

有些人以為這個計畫去年才開始

or two years ago, or we were struck by lightning --

或是前年 或這是我們突發奇想

this actually has gone back a long time, and in fact, back to the '60s.

其實計畫早在60年代就開始了

Here we're in the '80s.

這是80年代的進度 (這是教育計畫，不是筆電或手機計畫)

Steve Jobs had given us some laptops. We were in Senegal.

賈伯斯提供幾台筆電到塞內加爾

It didn't scale

規模不大 但至少將電腦帶到開發中國家

but it at least was bringing computers to developing countries

and learning pretty quickly that these kids,

我們很快發現

even though English wasn't their language,

當地孩子即使不諳英語

the Latin alphabet barely was their language,

甚至連拉丁字母都不認識

but they could just swim like fish.

用起電腦來卻怡然自得

They could play these like pianos.

得心應手

A little bit more recently, I got involved personally.

後來 我自己有機會親身參與

And these are two anecdotes --

這裡有兩個小故事 其中一則發生在柬埔寨

one was in Cambodia,

有個村子沒有水電 沒有電視、電話

in a village that has no electricity, no water, no television, no telephone,

but has broadband Internet now.

但現在村民有寬頻網路

And these kids, their first English word is "Google"

村裡孩子第一個學會的英文單字是"Google"

除了Skype 不知電話為何物

and they only know Skype.

They've never heard of telephony.

They just use Skype.

他們只用Skype

And they go home at night --

晚上回家他們就用寬頻連上網

they've got a broadband connection in a hut that doesn't have electricity.

即使茅屋裡連電源都沒有

The parents love it, because when they open up the laptops,

父母親也愛上了這台筆電 因為一開機

it's the brightest light source in the house.

它就成了屋裡最亮的光源

And talk about where metaphors and reality mix --

讓各位看看什麼叫美夢成真

this is the actual school.

這是學校實際的樣子

In parallel with this, Seymour Papert got the governor of Maine

同一時間 派柏說服緬因州州長

to legislate one laptop per child in the year 2002.

立法在2002年通過該計畫 (絕非兩人共用或一間教室一台)

Now at the time, I think it's fair to say that 80 percent of the teachers were --

當時 若說八成的老師都憂心忡忡

let me say, apprehensive.

我想絕不為過

Really, they were actually against it.

事實上 老師們並不贊成這個計畫

And they really preferred that the money would be used

他們寧可把錢用作他途

for higher salaries, more schools, whatever.

加薪、建新學校、或做其他事

And now, three and a half years later, guess what?

但三年半後的今天看看 情況如何？

They're reporting five things: drop of truancy to almost zero,

他們回報了五個現象

曠課率降到幾乎至零 家長會參與率大幅增加

attending parent-teacher meetings --

which nobody did and now almost everybody does --

以前從沒人參加 現在全都來了

drop in discipline problems, increase in student participation.

風紀問題減少 課堂參與熱絡

Teachers are now saying it's kind of fun to teach.

連老師都覺得現在教課很有意思

Kids are engaged -- they have laptops! --

孩子們有參與感 因為有了筆電

and then the fifth, which interests me the most,

然後第五項發現是我最感興趣的

is that the servers have to be turned off at certain times at night

就是伺服器晚上有時候得關機

because the teachers are getting too much email

因為教師收到太多電子郵件

from the kids asking them for help.

全是孩子們寫來問問題的

So when you see that kind of thing --

因此 這種計畫是不需要前測的

this is not something that you have to test.

The days of pilot projects are over, when people say,

前測早就不適用了 如果有人說：

"We'd like to do three or four thousand in our country to see how it works."

「呃 先拿三四千台來 看看可不可行吧？」

Screw you. Go to the back of the line and someone else will do it,

去你的 閃遠點 自然有別人願意參與

and then when you figure out that this works, you can join as well.

等你明白計畫可行 再回來找我們吧

And this is what we're doing.

這就是我們的作風

(Laughter) (Applause)

(笑聲)(掌聲)

So, One Laptop Per Child was formed about a year and a half ago.

「一個孩子、一台筆電」是一年半前誕生的

這個非營利組織已經募集資金 (透過NRE帳戶籌得2000萬美元)

It's a nonprofit association.

It raised about 20 million dollars

to do the engineering to just get this built,

解決設計的問題 然後再進行生產 (約法三章：規模，規模，規模！)

and then have it produced afterwards.

Scale is truly important.

(07年700-1000萬台，08年1-2億台) 規模至關重要 (在七大國推行)

And it's not important because you can buy components at a lower price, OK?

(免費提供給而兒童) 這不是因為可以用更低價買零組件 明白嗎？

It's because you can go to a manufacturer --

而是因為 當你與合作廠商洽談時

and I will leave the name out --

這邊我就不公佈是哪家廠商了

but we wanted a small display,

你說 我們想要小螢幕 色彩均勻度差一點無妨

doesn't have to have perfect color uniformity.

It can even have a pixel or two missing.

甚至缺一兩個畫素、稍暗都無所謂

It doesn't have to be that bright.

And this particular manufacturer said,

這位廠商回答：

"We're not interested in that. We're interested in the living room.

「呃，很抱歉，我們的專長是家用螢幕

We're interested in perfect color uniformity.

強調的就是色調飽滿

賣點是又大又鮮明的畫面

We're interested in big displays, bright displays.

You're not part of our strategic plan."

您的要求實在有違敝公司的方針」

And I said, "That's kind of too bad, because we need 100 million units a year."

所以我回答：「喔，真可惜，

因為我們一年要一億台」

(Laughter)

廠商口風一轉：「噢，我們的方針是可以調整的」

And they said, "Oh, well, maybe we could become part of your strategic plan."

And that's why scale counts.

所以我才說規模至關重要

And that's why we will not launch this

也因此 我們首批的需求至少要500到1000萬台

without five to 10 million units in the first run.

And the idea is to launch with enough scale

目的在於 達到一定的規模以後

that the scale itself helps bring the price down,

就能以規模制價

and that's why I said seven to 10 million there.

所以07年的目標才會訂這個數字

And we're doing it without a sales-and-marketing team.

我們也沒有業務和行銷團隊

I mean, you're looking at the sales-and-marketing team.

頂多像我這樣到處演講而已

We will do it by going to seven large countries

我們拜訪大國 徵求同意推行計畫

and getting them to agree and launch it,

and then the others can follow.

這樣其他國家也會跟進

We have partners.

我們有合作夥伴 當然Google也名列其中

It's not hard to guess Google would be one.

The others are all playing to pending.

還有其他企業在觀望

就是它 最近在媒體上大出風頭

And this has been in the press a great deal.

It's the so-called Green Machine that we introduced with Kofi Annan

我們與安南一同推出了這台綠色機器

是在11月突尼西亞的世界高峰會上

in November at the World Summit that was held in Tunisia.

Now once people start looking at this, they say, "Ah, this is a laptop project."

大家乍看之下的反應是：這是筆電計畫

Well, no, it's not a laptop project. It's an education project.

其實不是 這是教育計畫

And the fun part -- and I'm quite focused on it --

好玩的來了 這也是我努力的重點

I tell people I used to be a light bulb, but now I'm a laser --

我總說我以前是燈泡 現在是雷射

I'm just going to get that thing built, and it turns out it's not so hard.

我非把這個計畫做起來不可

而且我發現其實沒那麼難

Because laptop economics are the following:

原因是筆電各項成本有固定比重

一台筆電的售價 差不多有五成、接近六成

I say 50 percent here -- it's more like 60,

60 percent of the cost of your laptop

是付給了業務、行銷、流通和利潤

is sales, marketing, distribution and profit.

Now we have none of those, OK?

這些我們都沒有 對不對？

None of those figure into our cost,

所以這些項目沒有列在成本裡

because first of all, we sell it at cost, and the governments distribute it.

因為我們用成本價出售 政府負責流通

It gets distributed to the school system like a textbook.

透過學校系統分送 像發課本一樣

So that piece disappears.

這些成本消失了 剩下的就是螢幕和其他部份

Then you have display and everything else.

Now the display on your laptop costs,

(成本壓到100美元的筆電) 至於螢幕成本 大致而言

in rough numbers, 10 dollars a diagonal inch.

是一英吋對角線10美元 (2005年筆電總價分析)

That can drop to eight; it can drop to seven

這價錢當然可以砍到8元或7元

but it's not going to drop to two, or to one and a half,

但不可能降到2元或1.5元

unless we do some pretty clever things.

除非我們有什麼重大突破

其他部分 棕色那一小塊 就有趣了

It's the rest -- that little brown box -- that is pretty fascinating,

because the rest of your laptop is devoted to itself.

因為其他成本就是筆電運作所需

It's a little bit like an obese person

有點像過重的人 把大部分能量

having to use most of their energy to move their obesity.

都消耗在移動一身肥肉上 懂了吧？

(Laughter)

And we have a situation today which is incredible.

我們現在的處境實在有點匪夷所思

我從筆電問世以來就開始用這東西了

I've been using laptops since their inception.

And my laptop runs slower, less reliably and less pleasantly

我的筆電跑得越來越慢、越不穩、越令人不滿

than it ever has before.

And this year is worse.

今年的狀況更是糟糕

(Applause)

你們聽到這會鼓掌 甚至起立歡呼。但我問：

People clap, sometimes you even get standing ovations,

and I say, "What the hell's wrong with you? Why are we all sitting there?"

「你們怎麼了？為什麼乖乖忍受這些不便？」

And somebody -- to remain nameless -- called our laptop a "gadget" recently.

有人說 百元筆電是時髦玩具

我可不認同 我們的筆電跑得飛快

And I said, "God, our laptop's going to go like a bat out of hell.

When you open it up, it's going to go 'bing.'"

開機的時候 「逬！」一聲就可以用了

It'll be on.

It'll be just like it was in 1985,

就像1985年的蘋果麥金塔512電腦

when you bought an Apple Macintosh 512.

It worked really well.

運作順暢

And we've been going steadily downhill.

現在的筆電一代不如一代

Now, people ask all the time what it is.

常有人問我筆電的規格 (WiFi網狀網路)

That's what it is.

就是如此 (雙模式顯示器)

The two pieces that are probably notable: it'll be a mesh network,

其中最值得一提的應是網狀網路

so when the kids open up their laptops, they all become a network,

孩子們同時使用筆電 就構成網路環境

and then just need one or two points of backhaul.

只需要一兩個後置網路傳輸點

You can serve a couple of thousand kids with two megabits.

2MB的頻寬就夠滿足兩千個孩子

So you really can bring into a village,

所以只要村內家家有筆電

and then the villages can connect themselves,

整個村子就能聯成一個網路

and you really can do it quite well.

效果非常好

The dual mode display --

雙模顯示 讓螢幕在戶外也能用

the idea is to have a display that both works outdoors --

isn't it fun using your cell phone outdoors in the sunlight?

在戶外用手機有什麼問題？

Well, you can't see it.

呃，你根本看不清楚螢幕

And one of the reasons you can't see it

原因之一是 手機螢幕是背光式的

is because it's backlighting most of the time, most cell phones.

大部分手機都是如此

Now, what we're doing is, we're doing one that will be both frontlit and backlit.

我們想做的 是正背光兩用的螢幕

And whether you manually switch it or you do it in the software

切換方式是手動還是用程式轉換還有待確認

is to be seen.

反正 背光時 就是彩色螢幕

But when it's backlit, it's color.

And when it's frontlit, it's black and white

面光時 是三倍解析度的黑白螢幕

at three times the resolution.

這些都達成了嗎？還沒

Is it all worked out? No.

That's why a lot of our people are more or less living in Taiwan right now.

所以我們很多人員現在常跑台灣

And in about 30 days, we'll know for sure whether this works.

大概30天後就會知道可不可行

Probably the most important piece there

而最重要的部分

is that the kids really can do the maintenance.

應該是孩子們可以負責維修工作

And this is again something that people don't believe,

這是另一個不可思議之處

but I really think it's quite true.

但這是千真萬確的 (兒童負責維修工作)

That's the machine we showed in Tunis.

這就是我們在突尼斯展示的筆電

This is more the direction that we're going to go.

這是未來設計的方向 (旋轉功能)

And it's something that we didn't think was possible.

之前以為這是做不到的

Now, I'm going to pass this around.

我現在把筆電傳下去

This isn't a design, OK?

這並不是設計圖

So this is just a mechanical engineering sort of embodiment of it

它只是個粗製的樣本 讓各位看看

for you to play with.

And it's clearly just a model.

只算是模型

The working one is at MIT.

實際成品在MIT

從這位帥哥這裡開始傳

I'm going to pass it to this handsome gentleman.

At least you can decide whether it goes left or --

讓你決定要往左還是往右傳

Chris Anderson: Before you do it, for the people down in simulcast --

噢 我忘了有現場聯播 攝影機拍一下好嗎

Nicholas Negroponte: Sorry! I forgot. CA: Just show it off a bit.

So wherever the camera is -- OK, good point. Thank you, Chris.

幸好你提醒 謝了 克里斯

The idea was that it would be not only a laptop,

這不僅是一台筆電

but that it could transform into an electronic book.

還可以變身成電子書

So it's sort of an electronic book.

或是具備類似的功能

This is where when you go outside, it's in black and white.

這樣就可以在戶外看黑白螢幕

The games buttons are missing,

雖然沒有遊戲鈕 不過它也是遊戲機

but it'll also be a games machine,

book machine.

Set it up this way, and it's a television set.

把螢幕豎起來 可以當電視

Etc., etc. -- is that enough for simulcast? OK, sorry.

有許多用途 這樣展示清楚了嗎？好

吉姆會決定等下要往哪邊傳

I'll let Jim decide which way to send it afterwards.

OK. Seven countries.

回到剛剛說的七大國 (笑聲)(七國：中國 印度 泰國 埃及 奈及利亞 巴西 阿根廷)

(Laughter)

I say "maybe" for Massachusetts, because they actually have to do a bid.

麻州還不確定 因為他們必須要進行招標

依法行事就得遵照程序進行

By law you've got to bid, and so on and so forth.

所以我現在還不敢下定論

So I can't quite name them.

In the other cases, they don't have to do bids.

其他國家不需要招標就可以決定

They can decide --

it's the federal government in each case.

決策者都是中央政府

It's kind of agonizing,

不過惱人的是 很多人說

because a lot of people say, "Let's do it at the state level,"

「我們從地方政府開始下手吧」

當然 地方政府規模小 一定比中央靈活

because states are more nimble than the feds, just because of size.

但是我們發現

And yet we count.

We're really dealing with the federal government.

我們交涉的對象其實是中央政府

We're really dealing with ministries of education.

面對的是教育部

And if you look at governments around the world,

環顧世界各國政府

ministries of education tend to be the most conservative,

教育部往往是最保守的

and also the ones that have huge payrolls.

也是人員最多的部門

Everybody thinks they know about education,

每位都自詡為教育專家

其中又牽涉許多文化層面

a lot of culture is built into it as well.

It's really hard. And so it's certainly the hard road.

推行計畫真的不容易 十分艱鉅

If you look at the countries, they're pretty geoculturally distributed.

這些國家各有不同的地理文化

Have they all agreed? No, not completely.

每國都同意推行嗎？沒有

Probably Thailand, Brazil and Nigeria

泰國 巴西 奈及利亞是比較積極的

are the three that are the most active and most agreed.

也最願意配合

We're purposely not signing anything with anybody

我們尚未與任一國簽署任何協議

until we actually have the working ones.

要等筆電完工

And since I visit each one of those countries

我每三個月拜訪這些國家一次

within at least every three months,

I'm just going around the world every three weeks.

等於我每三週就環遊世界一圈

Here's sort of the schedule

這是我們大致的進度

and I put at the bottom we might give some away free in two years at this meeting.

希望在兩年後的TED大會上免費發送

Everybody says it's a $100 laptop --

每個人都說 成本100元的筆電 辦不到的

you can't do it.

Well, guess what, we're not.

知道嗎 我們確實辦不到

We're coming in probably at 135, to start, then drift down.

一開始大約是135元 然後慢慢降價

And that's very important,

這點非常重要

because so many things hit the market at a price and then drift up.

因為許多商品上市後 價格會逐漸上漲

就是先以低價促銷 打響知名度後

It's kind of the loss leader,

and then as soon as it looks interesting,

到頭來不是變得太貴 就是無法量產

it can't be afforded, or it can't be scaled out.

So we're targeting 50 dollars in 2010.

我們目標是在2010年將成本降至50美元

The gray market's a big issue.

水貨市場是一大問題

And one of the ways -- just one --

but one of the ways to help in the case of the gray market

防範水貨市場交易 只有一個方法

is to make something that is so utterly unique --

就是產品必須獨一無二

It's a little bit like the fact that automobiles --

以汽車為例

美國每天有上千輛車失竊

thousands of automobiles are stolen every day in the United States.

Not one single post-office truck is stolen.

但一定沒有人會偷郵務車 為什麼？

(Laughter)

And why?

Because there's no market for post-office trucks.

因為沒辦法脫手

It looks like a post-office truck.

郵務車就是郵務車的樣子

You can spray paint it. You can do anything you want.

就算漆上不同顏色、改裝都沒用

I just learned recently: in South Africa, no white Volvos are stolen.

我聽說 南非沒有白色富豪車失竊

Period. None. Zero.

從來沒有

So we want to make it very much like a white Volvo.

所以百元筆電就要像白色富豪車

Each government has a task force.

各國政府都有專案小組

This perhaps is less interesting,

but we're trying to get the governments to all work together

要各部門通力合作 其實困難重重

and it's not easy.

最省事的做法是從中央政府下手

The economics of this is to start with the federal governments

and then later, to subsequently go to other --

然後層層推展

例如 發起兒童一對一資助計畫

whether it's child-to-child funding,

so a child in this country buys one for a child in the developing world,

讓美國孩子替發展中國家孩子出錢

依性別或年齡將兩地的孩子配對

maybe of the same gender, maybe of the same age.

An uncle gives a niece or a nephew that as a birthday present.

也可能是長輩送晚輩 當作生日禮物

I mean, there are all sorts of things that will happen,

可以做的事太多了

and they'll be very, very exciting.

未來的發展真是讓人萬分期待

And everybody says -- I say -- it's an education project.

另外 既然這是教育計畫

Are we providing the software?

筆電裡會附軟體嗎？

The answer is:

答案是 系統裡當然有軟體

The system certainly has software,

but no, we're not providing the education content.

不過 我們不提供教學材料

That is really done in the countries.

教材由各國自己負責

But we are certainly constructionists.

我們是建構主義者

And we certainly believe in learning by doing

認為做中學才是學習之道

and everything from Logo, which was started in 1968,

例如Logo程式語言 從1968年啟用

to more modern things, like Scratch, if you've ever even heard of it,

或比較近代的Scratch程式語言

are very, very much part of it.

都是以此為理念而設計的

And that's the rollout.

這就是我們首次展示

Are we dreaming? Is this real?

這是癡人說夢嗎？真的可行嗎？ 可行

It actually is real.

The only criticism, and people really don't want to criticize this,

我們唯一受到的批評-沒人願意批評這個計畫

because it is a humanitarian effort, a nonprofit effort

因為它是人道活動 非營利組織

and to criticize it is a little bit stupid, actually.

其實任何批評都是非常不智的

(Laughter)

But the one thing that people could criticize was,

所以唯一會批評的就是

"Great idea, but these guys can't do it."

立意可嘉 但這些人無法付諸實行

And that could either mean these guys, professors and so on couldn't do it,

這指的可能是 這群教授等人不自量力

or that it's not possible.

或計畫本身是不可能的任務

Well, on December 12, a company called Quanta agreed to build it,

12月12日 廣達電腦同意進行生產

and since they make about one-third of all the laptops on the planet today,

該公司是製造全球1/3筆電的大廠

that question disappeared.

一舉掃除任何對可行性的疑慮

So it's not a matter of whether it's going to happen.

百元筆電計畫正準備上路

It is going to happen.

And if it comes out at 138 dollars, so what?

即使一開始售價是138美元又如何？

If it comes out six months late, so what?

即使延遲六個月才上市又如何？

That's a pretty soft landing.

這個計畫一定會漸入佳境 謝謝

Thank you.

(掌聲)

(Applause)