One seed at a time, protecting the future of food | Cary Fowler

翻译人员: Halei Liu 校对人员: dahong zhang

I've been fascinated with crop diversity for about 35 years from now,

我着迷于作物的多样化已经有35年之久，

ever since I stumbled across a fairly obscure academic article

自从我偶然读了一篇杰克卡兰

by a guy named Jack Harlan.

写的晦涩的学术论文后。

And he described the diversity within crops --

他是这样来描述作物的多样性的 --

all the different kinds of wheat and rice and such --

麦子和大米等等的所有种类 --

as a genetic resource.

都是一种基因资源。

And he said, "This genetic resource," --

他说到，“基因资源” --

and I'll never forget the words --

而我从来没有忘记这些话 --

"stands between us and catastrophic starvation

“我们和灾难性饥饿间

on a scale we cannot imagine."

的距离是我们无法想象的”

I figured he was either really on to something,

我想他一定是执迷着什么。

or he was one of these academic nutcases.

或他是书呆子中的一员。

So, I looked a little further,

所以，我又进一步看了看。

and what I figured out was that he wasn't a nutcase.

然后我发现他并不是书呆子。

He was the most respected scientist in the field.

他是这方面里最受尊敬的科学家。

What he understood was that biological diversity -- crop diversity --

他所理解的生物多样性 -- 作物多样性 --¥

is the biological foundation of agriculture.

是农业的生物基础。

It's the raw material, the stuff, of evolution in our agricultural crops.

是原材料，是我们农业作物进化的东西。

Not a trivial matter.

这不是微不足道的事情。

And he also understood that that foundation was crumbling,

他也认识到到这基础摇摇欲坠。

literally crumbling.

真的是摇摇欲坠。

That indeed, a mass extinction was underway

那就是，的确，在我们农业系统中

in our fields, in our agricultural system.

大量的灭绝。

And that this mass extinction was taking place

大规模灭绝正在发生

with very few people noticing

很少人注意到这一点，

and even fewer caring.

更没人在乎。

Now, I know that many of you don't stop

现在，我知道你们中还有很多人在不停的

to think about diversity in agricultural systems

思考这农业系统中的多样化，

and, let's face it, that's logical.

承认吧，这是符合逻辑的。

You don't see it in the newspaper every day.

你不会每天在报纸上看到它。

And when you go into the supermarket, you certainly don't see a lot of choices there.

而当你去超市时，你当然不会察觉到那里有多少选择。

You see apples that are red, yellow, and green and that's about it.

你看到红的，黄的的绿的苹果，就只是这些了。

So, let me show you a picture of one form of diversity.

所以，当我来给你们看看代表多样化的一种图片。

Here's some beans,

这里有一些豆子

and there are about 35 or 40 different

在图片上显示了大概有35-40

varieties of beans on this picture.

种不同的豆子。

Now, imagine each one of these varieties as being distinct from another

现在想象下这些物种中的每一个都区别都和

about the same way as a poodle from a Great Dane.

狮子狗和大丹狗一样。

If I wanted to show you a picture of all the dog breeds in the world,

如果我想给你们看看世界上狗的所有品种。

and I put 30 or 40 of them on a slide, it would take about 10 slides

每一个照片上放上30-40个，会用去10个照片。

because there about 400 breeds of dogs in the world.

因为世界上有大概400种狗。

But there are 35 to 40,000 different varieties of beans.

但是有35000到40000种不同种类的豆子。

So if I were to going to show you all the beans in the world,

所以如果我要想你们展示世界上所有的豆子，

and I had a slide like this, and I switched it every second,

用同样的图片，每1秒一张，

it would take up my entire TED talk,

光这就会用去我所有的TED演讲时间。

and I wouldn't have to say anything.

我说不了任何别的事情。

But the interesting thing is that this diversity -- and the tragic thing is --

但是多样化就有趣在于 -- 也是悲剧在于 --

that this diversity is being lost.

多样化正在消失。

We have about 200,000 different varieties of wheat,

我们大概有200000种不同的麦子，

and we have about 2 to 400,000 different varieties of rice,

大概有200000—400000种不同的大米品种，

but it's being lost.

但是正在消失。

And I want to give you an example of that.

我想给你们看个例子。

It's a bit of a personal example, in fact.

实际上，是我亲身的体验。

In the United States, in the 1800s -- that's where we have the best data --

再美国，再18世纪 --从那时开始我们才开始纪录 --

farmers and gardeners were growing 7,100

农民和园艺工作者曾种植着7100

named varieties of apples.

种不同名称的苹果。

Imagine that. 7,100 apples with names.

想像一下7100种不同名字的苹果。

Today, 6,800 of those are extinct,

今天有6800种已经灭绝了，

no longer to be seen again.

再也看不到了。

I used to have a list of these extinct apples,

我原来有一份灭绝了的苹果的名单，

and when I would go out and give a presentation,

当我出去要办讲座的时候，

I would pass the list out in the audience.

我就会把名单分给听众。

I wouldn't tell them what it was, but it was in alphabetical order,

我不会告诉他们这是什么，但是这是按字母排列的，

and I would tell them to look for their names, their family names,

我会让他们去找找自己的名字，他们自己的姓，

their mother's maiden name.

她们母亲的名字。

And at the end of the speech, I would ask, "How many people have found a name?"

就在讲座结束的时候，我会问到，”多少人找到了他们自己的名字？“

And I never had fewer than two-thirds of an audience hold up their hand.

每次至少有三分之二的人举了手。

And I said, "You know what? These apples come from your ancestors,

然后我说道，”你们知道吗？这些苹果是从你们祖先传下来的，

and your ancestors gave them the greatest honor they could give them.

而且你们的祖先把他们最宝贵的东西给了它们。

They gave them their name.

他们给了苹果他们的名字。

The bad news is they're extinct.

不幸的是，它们已经灭绝了。

The good news is a third of you didn't hold up your hand. Your apple's still out there.

好消息是，还有三分之一的人没有举手。你们的苹果还在那。

Find it. Make sure it doesn't join the list."

找找看。确定他们不会加入这份名单。“

So, I want to tell you that the piece of the good news is

所以我想告诉你们的好消息之一是

that the Fowler apple is still out there.

福勒苹果还存在。

And there's an old book back here,

而且这里有一本很古老的书，

and I want to read a piece from it.

我想给你们念其中一段。

This book was published in 1904.

这本书出版于1904年。

It's called "The Apples of New York" and this is the second volume.

叫做”纽约的苹果“而且这是第二部。

See, we used to have a lot of apples.

瞧瞧，我们曾经还是有很多苹果品种的。

And the Fowler apple is described in here --

它是这样描写福勒苹果的 --

I hope this doesn't surprise you --

我希望这不要吓着你 --

as, "a beautiful fruit."

”一个美丽的水果“

(Laughter)

（笑）

I don't know if we named the apple or if the apple named us, but ...

我真不知道是我们命名了苹果还是苹果命名了我买，但是...

but, to be honest, the description goes on

但是，说实话，这个描述还有

and it says that it "doesn't rank high in quality, however."

说到，”但是质量并不高。“

And then he has to go even further.

然后书里还说到。

It sounds like it was written by an old school teacher of mine.

听起来想是我原来学校老师写我一样。

"As grown in New York, the fruit usually fails to develop properly in size and quality

”在纽约生长，这个水果并不能在大小和质量上

and is, on the whole, unsatisfactory."

完全成熟，总的来说，不让人满意。“

(Laughter)

（笑）

And I guess there's a lesson to be learned here,

我想这里我们学到了一课，

and the lesson is: so why save it?

那就是：那为什么还挽救它？

I get this question all the time. Why don't we just save the best one?

我一直被问到这个问题。为什么我们不只留最好的？

And there are a couple of answers to that question.

对这个问题有几个答案。

One thing is that there is no such thing as a best one.

一个就是，没有什么所谓最好的。

Today's best variety is tomorrow's lunch for insects or pests or disease.

今天最好的品种就是明天害虫或疾病的午餐。

The other thing is that maybe that Fowler apple

另外一个就是也许福勒苹果

or maybe a variety of wheat that's not economical right now

或大麦的其它品种在今天没有价值

has disease or pest resistance

但未来可能有着别的品种没有的

or some quality that we're going to need for climate change that the others don't.

对疾病害虫免疫或对气候变化的适应性的特性。

So it's not necessary, thank God,

所以福勒苹果没有

that the Fowler apple is the best apple in the world.

必要是世界上最好的苹果，感谢上帝。

It's just necessary or interesting that it might have one good, unique trait.

它也许包含一个好的，特殊的特性，这就值得引起我们的兴趣了。

And for that reason, we ought to be saving it.

就为这个原因，我们就应该挽救它。

Why? As a raw material, as a trait we can use in the future.

为什么？作为一种原材料，一种我们在未来可以用到的特性。

Think of diversity as giving us options.

把多样化看作是我们的选择。

And options, of course, are exactly what we need in an era of climate change.

这些选择，显然的，正是我们对气候变化所需要的。

I want to show you two slides,

我想给你们看两个幻灯片，

but first, I want to tell you that we've been working at the Global Crop Diversity Trust

但是，首先，我想告诉你们，我们已经在全球作物多样化信用机构工作，

with a number of scientists -- particularly at Stanford and University of Washington --

和一些科学家在一起 -- 特别是斯坦福大学和华盛顿大学 --

to ask the question: What's going to happen to agriculture in an era of climate change

工作是问这个问题：在一个气候变化的年代农业会怎么样

and what kind of traits and characteristics do we need in our agricultural crops

以及我们农业需要什么样的特性和品种

to be able to adapt to this?

来适应这个变化？

In short, the answer is that in the future, in many countries,

长话短说，答案就在未来，在许多国家里，

the coldest growing seasons are going to be hotter

最冷的播种季节变的比

than anything those crops have seen in the past.

这些作物过去遇到的要更热了。

The coldest growing seasons of the future,

未来的最冷的播种季节，

hotter than the hottest of the past.

要比过去最热的还要热。

Is agriculture adapted to that?

农业能适应这个吗？

I don't know. Can fish play the piano?

我不知道。鱼能弹钢琴吗？

If agriculture hasn't experienced that, how could it be adapted?

如果农业没有经历过，怎么能够适应呢？

Now, the highest concentration of poor and hungry people in the world,

现在，世界上贫穷和饥饿最集中的人口，

and the place where climate change, ironically, is going to be the worst

已经那里有气候变化，讽刺的是，最坏会发生在

is in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa.

南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲。

So I've picked two examples here, and I want to show you.

所以我在这里挑选两个我想给你们看的例子。

In the histogram before you now,

现在在你面前的历史图表里，

the blue bars represent the historical range of temperatures,

蓝色的代表着历史上的气温范围，

going back about far as we have temperature data.

纪录着我们有纪录以来的数据。

And you can see that there's some difference

你可以看到在每一个播种季节间

between one growing season and another.

都有一些不同。

Some are colder, some are hotter and it's a bell shaped curve.

有一些冷点，有一些热点，形成了一个钟形的曲线。

The tallest bar is the average temperature for the most number of growing seasons.

在平均气温里最高的是那些最多的播种季节。

In the future, later this century, it's going to look like the red,

在未来，这个世纪末期，就会像这个红色一样，

totally out of bounds.

完全超出范围。

The agricultural system and, more importantly, the crops in the field in India

这个农业系统，最重要的是，在印度农田里的作物

have never experienced this before.

从没有经历过这些。

Here's South Africa. The same story.

这是南非，同样的情况。

But the most interesting thing about South Africa is

但是关于南非有趣的事情是

we don't have to wait for 2070 for there to be trouble.

我们不用等到2070年才会遇到这些问题。

By 2030, if the maize, or corn, varieties, which is the dominant crop --

在2030年，苞谷，或玉米，这些品种，这是主流作物 --

50 percent of the nutrition in Southern Africa are still in the field --

南非50％的[不清楚] 还在田地里 --

in 2030, we'll have a 30 percent decrease in production of maize

在2030年，我们将会遭遇玉米30％的减产

because of the climate change already in 2030.

因为气候在2030年时已经变化了。

30 percent decrease of production in the context of increasing population,

30％的粮食减产，就增长人口而言，

that's a food crisis. It's global in nature.

这是食物危机。是全球的自然问题。

We will watch children starve to death on TV.

我们将会在电视里看到儿童们饥饿而死。

Now, you may say that 20 years is a long way off.

现在，你也许可以说20年还早得很。

It's two breeding cycles for maize.

这也就是两个玉米育种周期。

We have two rolls of the dice to get this right.

我们有两轮得机会来赌一把。

We have to get climate-ready crops in the field,

我买必须让田地里得作物准备好气候得变化，

and we have to do that rather quickly.

我们要快点做。

Now, the good news is that we have conserved.

现在，好消息是我们已经开始储藏了。

We have collected and conserved a great deal of biological diversity,

我买已经开始收集和储藏了很多生物多样化的品种，

agricultural diversity, mostly in the form of seed,

农业多样化的，大多数以种子的形态，

and we put it in seed banks, which is a fancy way of saying a freezer.

而且我买把它放到种子银行里，其实就是冷藏起来。

If you want to conserve seed for a long term

如果你想长时间储藏种子

and you want to make it available to plant breeders and researchers,

而且你想让它可以种植和被研究，

you dry it and then you freeze it.

你要凉干然后再冷藏。

Unfortunately, these seed banks are located around the world in buildings

不幸的是，这些种子药行就在世界各地的银行里

and they're vulnerable.

而且很容易出问题。

Disasters have happened. In recent years we lost the gene bank,

灾难时有发生。在最近几年里我买失去了基因银行，

the seed bank in Iraq and Afghanistan. You can guess why.

和在伊拉克和阿富汗的种子银行。你们应该知道为什么。

In Rwanda, in the Solomon Islands.

在卢旺达，在所罗门群岛。

And then there are just daily disasters that take place in these buildings,

而就是这些日常灾难常常发生在只些建筑物里，

financial problems and mismanagement and equipment failures,

资金问题，管理问题和仪器故障，

and all kinds of things, and every time something like this happens,

各种各样的事情，像这样的事情每发生一次，

it means extinction. We lose diversity.

就意味着灭绝。我们在损失多样化。

And I'm not talking about losing diversity in the same way that you lose your car keys.

我指的损失多样化可不像你们说的车钥匙丢了一样。

I'm talking about losing it in the same way that we lost the dinosaurs:

我指的损失就是像我们没有了恐龙一样，

actually losing it, never to be seen again.

真的没有了，再也看不见了。

So, a number of us got together and decided that, you know, enough is enough

所以，一群人聚在仪器，决定到，你知道，被逼上绝路了，

and we need to do something about that and we need to have a facility

我买必须做些什么，我买有设备

that can really offer protection for our biological diversity of --

那些设备可以为我们的生物多样化提供保护 --

maybe not the most charismatic diversity.

也许不是最有魅力的多样化。

You don't look in the eyes of a carrot seed quite in the way you do a panda bear,

你看待胡萝卜时和你看待熊猫时可能会不一样，

but it's very important diversity.

但是胡萝卜也是重要的多样化。

So we needed a really safe place, and we went quite far north to find it.

所以我们需要一个很安全的地方，而且我们在很南方找到了这个地方。

To Svalbard, in fact.

在斯瓦尔巴，实际上。

This is above mainland Norway. You can see Greenland there.

这是在挪威的上面。你在这里可以看到格陵兰岛。

That's at 78 degrees north.

这是在北纬78度。

It's as far as you can fly on a regularly scheduled airplane.

这是你乘坐民用航空可以飞的最远的地方。

It's a remarkably beautiful landscape. I can't even begin to describe it to you.

这是一个十分美丽的地方。不能用语言来描述。

It's otherworldly, beautiful.

鬼斧神工，真的很美。

We worked with the Norwegian government

我们和挪威政府和

and with the NorGen, the Norwegian Genetic Resources Program,

挪威基因资源项目一起合作，

to design this facility.

来设计这个设施。

What you see is an artist's conception of this facility,

你现在看到的时一个艺术家构想中的设施

which is built in a mountain in Svalbard.

建造在斯瓦尔巴山地。

The idea of Svalbard was that it's cold,

因为斯瓦尔巴山地很冷，

so we get natural freezing temperatures.

所以我们就运用了自然的冷却温度。

But it's remote. It's remote and accessible

但是这个地方很偏僻，偏僻但又可以进入

so it's safe and we don't depend on mechanical refrigeration.

所以很安全，而且我们完全不依靠机械冷藏系统。

This is more than just an artist's dream, it's now a reality.

那不仅仅是一个艺术家的梦想，那是真的。

And this next picture shows it in context, in Svalbard.

下副图片将会显示这个机构，在斯瓦尔巴。

And here's the front door of this facility.

这是这个设施的正门。

When you open up the front door,

当你打开正门后

this is what you're looking at. It's pretty simple. It's a hole in the ground.

你会看到这个。十分简单。就是地下的一个洞。

It's a tunnel, and you go into the tunnel,

这是一个通道，当你走进通道时，

chiseled in solid rock, about 130 meters.

开凿在岩石里，大概有130米。

There are now a couple of security doors, so you won't see it quite like this.

那里有一些安检门，所以和你们看的有一点不同。

Again, when you get to the back, you get into an area that's really my favorite place.

又一次，当你们进入到后面，你们就来到了我最喜欢的地方。

I think of it as sort of a cathedral.

为什么？我想是因为这就像大教堂一样。

And I know that this tags me as a bit of a nerd, but ...

我想这个就有点可以把我定义为书呆子，但是...

(Laughter)

（笑）

Some of the happiest days of my life have been spent ...

我生命中最美好的几天

(Laughter)

（笑）

in this place there.

就是在这里度过的。

(Applause)

（掌声）

If you were to walk into one of these rooms, you would see this.

如果你走进这其中一个房间，你就会看到这个。

It's not very exciting, but if you know what's there, it's pretty emotional.

这不是很令人兴奋，但是如果你知道这是在哪里，这是很让人激动的。

We have now about 425,000

我们现在又大概425，000

samples of unique crop varieties.

个不同的作物品种样品。

There's 70,000 samples of different varieties of rice

在这个机构里大概有70，000中

in this facility right now.

不同的大米品种样品。

About a year from now, we'll have over half a million samples.

在过大概一年，我们将会有超过50万的样品。

We're going up to over a million, and someday we'll basically have samples --

终究有一天我们会有超过100万的样品，我们的样品 --

about 500 seeds --

500类型的种子 --

of every variety of agricultural crop that can be stored in a frozen state

每一种农业作物的物种都可以被冷藏在这个

in this facility.

冰冻设备里。

This is a backup system for world agriculture.

这是我们农业系统的备份。

It's a backup system for all the seed banks. Storage is free.

这是所有种子银行的一个备份。储存是免费。

It operates like a safety deposit box.

这就像一个保险箱一样。

Norway owns the mountain and the facility, but the depositors own the seed.

挪威拥有这个山和这个机构，但是存户是拥有种子。

And if anything happens, then they can come back and get it.

而且如果发生了什么是，他们可以来这里那回种子。

This particular picture that you see shows the national collection of the United States,

这个图片给你们展示的是加拿大的国家收藏，

of Canada, and an international institution from Syria.

以及来自叙利亚的国际机构。

I think it's interesting in that this facility, I think,

我想这在这个机构里是很有趣，我想，

is almost the only thing I can think of these days where countries,

在这几天里我唯一能想到的就是，这些国家，

literally, every country in the world --

真的，在这个世界上的每一个国家 --

because we have seeds from every country in the world --

因为我们有从这个世界上每一个国家而来的种子 --

all the countries of the world have gotten together

世界上所有的国家都会聚在一起

to do something that's both long term, sustainable and positive.

去做既长期，可持续，和积极的一些事情。

I can't think of anything else that's happened in my lifetime that way.

在我一生中除了想这个在也想不到别的事情了。

I can't look you in the eyes and tell you that I have a solution

我不能看着你们的眼睛，然后告诉你们，我有一个

for climate change, for the water crisis.

可以解决气候变化，和水资源危机的方法。

Agriculture takes 70 percent of fresh water supplies on earth.

农业用去了地球上70%的新鲜水。

I can't look you in the eyes and tell you that there is such a solution

我不能看着你们的眼睛然后说到，这里有一个解决方法

for those things, or the energy crisis, or world hunger, or peace in conflict.

可以解决这些事情，解决能源危机，或世界饥饿，或给冲突带来和平。

I can't look you in the eyes and tell you that I have a simple solution for that,

我不能看着你们的眼睛去告诉你们，我对这些有一个简单的解决方法，

but I can look you in the eyes and tell you that we can't solve any of those problems

但是，我可以看着你们的眼睛，告诉你们我们是不能解决这些问题的，

if we don't have crop diversity.

如果我们没有作物多样化。

Because I challenge you to think of an effective, efficient, sustainable

因为我可以让你们想想一个有效，高效，可持续

solution to climate change if we don't have crop diversity.

的解决气候变化的方法，如果我们没有作物多样化。

Because, quite literally, if agriculture doesn't adapt to climate change,

因为，真的，如果农业无法适应气候变化，

neither will we.

我们也不能。

And if crops don't adapt to climate change, neither will agriculture,

因为作物不能适应气候变化，农业就不能，

neither will we.

我们也不能。

So, this is not something pretty and nice to do.

所以，这里没有什么美好的事情去做。

There are a lot of people who would love to have this diversity exist

有很多人希望能有这种多样化

just for the existence value of it.

就完全因为它存在的价值。

It is, I agree, a nice thing to do.

这就是，我承认，是一件非常美好的事情。

But it's a necessary thing to do.

但是也是非常必须的事情。

So, in a very real sense, I believe that we, as an international community,

所以，非常严肃的，我相信我们，作为一个国际集团，

should get organized to complete the task.

应该组织好去完成这个任务。

The Svalbard Global Seed Vault is a wonderful gift

斯瓦尔巴全球种子保鲜库是一个神奇的礼物

that Norway and others have given us,

是挪威和其他国家给我们的，

but it's not the complete answer.

但是这不是完整的答案。

We need to collect the remaining diversity that's out there.

我们需要去收集余下的多样化物种。

We need to put it into good seed banks

我们需要将他们放进好的种子银行中

that can offer those seeds to researchers in the future.

一个可以在未来给研究者提供种子的银行中。

We need to catalog it. It's a library of life,

我们需要一个手册。这是生命的博物馆，

but right now I would say we don't have a card catalog for it.

但是现在我必须说，我们还没有这个手册。

And we need to support it financially.

而且我们必须有资金上的支持。

My big idea would be that while we think of it as commonplace

我的大想法是，当我们把

to endow an art museum or endow a chair at a university,

重视艺术博物馆或重视大学作为十分平常的事情时，

we really ought to be thinking about endowing wheat.

我们也应该想想去重视小麦。

30 million dollars in an endowment would take care

3千万美元就足以永远保证

of preserving all the diversity in wheat forever.

所有的小麦多样化。

So we need to be thinking a little bit in those terms.

所以我们必须在这些方面想一想。

And my final thought is that we, of course, by conserving wheat,

我想我最后想说的是，当然，通过保存小麦，

rice, potatoes, and the other crops,

大米，土豆，和其他作物，

we may, quite simply, end up saving ourselves.

我们也许，十分简单的，也可以挽救我们自己。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）