Rose Goslinga: Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding

翻译人员: Junfei Ye 校对人员: Jing Peng

In Kenya, 1984 is known

在肯尼亚，

1984年被称为

as the year of the cup,

杯子之年，

or the goro goro.

或者 goro goro之年。

The goro goro is a cup used to measure

goro goro是市场上用来称量

two kilograms of maize flower on the market,

两公斤玉米面的一种杯子，

and the maize flower is used to make ugali,

玉米面是用来做乌伽黎的，

a polenta-like cake that is eaten together with vegetables.

乌伽黎是一种跟蔬菜一起吃的类似玉米粥的饼。

Both the maize and the vegetables are grown

玉米和蔬菜都种植在

on most Kenyan farms,

大多数的肯尼亚农场里，

which means that most families can feed themselves

也就是说大多数的家庭

from their own farm.

都能够自给自足。

One goro goro can feed three meals

一 杯goro goro 的玉米面

for an average family,

可供一个普通家庭吃三餐

and in 1984, the whole harvest

然而在1984年，全部的玉米产量

could fit in one goro goro.

只能装满一 杯goro goro 。

It was and still is one of the worst droughts

那是，至今仍然是人们记忆中

in living memory.

最严重的干旱之一。

Now today, I insure farmers against droughts

现在，我为农民们对抗像杯子之年

like those in the year of the cup,

那样的干旱投保，

or to be more specific, I insure the rains.

或者说得更具体点，我为雨水投保。

I come from a family of missionaries

我来自一个在印尼建医院

who built hospitals in Indonesia,

的传教士家庭，

and my father built a psychiatric hospital

我父亲在坦桑尼亚

in Tanzania.

建了一座精神病院。

This is me, age five, in front of that hospital.

这就是我，当时五岁，在这家医院的前面。

I don't think they thought I'd grow up

我觉得他们绝不会想到

to sell insurance. (Laughter)

我长大后会去卖保险（笑声）。

So let me tell you how that happened.

所以让我告诉你这是怎么发生的。

In 2008, I was working

2008年，我在

for the Ministry of Agriculture of Rwanda,

卢旺达农业部工作，

and my boss had just been promoted

我的上司刚好被提升为

to become the minister.

农业部长。

She launched an ambitious plan

她启动了一项雄心勃勃的计划

to start a green revolution in her country,

在她的国家开展一场绿色革命，

and before we knew it, we were importing

在我们知道这个计划之前，我们正在进口

tons of fertilizer and seed

大量的化肥和种子，

and telling farmers how to apply that fertilizer

并且告诉农民们如何使用这些化肥

and plant.

以及如何种植。

A couple of weeks later,

几个星期后，

the International Monetary Fund visited us,

国际货币基金组织拜访了我们，

and asked my minister,

并且问我们部长，

"Minister, it's great that you want to help farmers

“部长，你想帮助农民们达到粮食自足，

reach food security, but what if it doesn't rain?"

这是一件极好的事，但是如果不下雨怎么办，“

My minister answered proudly

我的部长傲慢地，

and somewhat defiantly,

甚至有点挑衅地回答道：

"I am going to pray for rain."

“我打算祈雨。”

That ended the discussion.

这场对话以此结束。

On the way back to the ministry in the car,

在回部里的车里，

she turned around to me and said,

她转向我说，

"Rose, you've always been interested in finance.

“罗斯，你一直对金融感兴趣。

Go find us some insurance."

去给我们找些保险吧。“

It's been six years since,

自那以后已有六年了，

and last year I was fortunate enough

去年我足够幸运地

to be part of a team that insured

成为了一个团队的一分子，这个团队

over 185,000 farmers in Kenya and Rwanda

给超过18万5千的肯尼亚和卢旺达的农民

against drought.

投了对抗干旱的保险。

They owned an average of half an acre

这些农民平均每人拥有半英亩的土地，

and paid on average two Euros in premium.

平均每人支付两欧元的保费。

It's microinsurance.

这是小额保险。

Now, traditional insurance doesn't work

现在，传统保险业不会做

with two to three Euros of premium,

两到三欧元保费的生意，

because traditional insurance relies on farm visits.

因为传统保险业 依赖于对农场的调查

A farmer here in Germany would be visited

一个德国的农场主， 可能在种植季节的开始

for the start of the season, halfway through,

作物生长期间，然后是收割时， 都会被走访调查

and at the end, and again if there was a loss,

如果有损失的话，为了估量赔偿

to estimate the damages.

同样还要被探访。

For a small-scale farmer in the middle of Africa,

作为一个非洲中部 小规模的农民来说，

the maths of doing those visits

这些探访

simply don't add up.

坦白地说不划算。

So instead, we rely on technology and data.

所以，我们改为依赖科技和数据。

This satellite measures

这种卫星用来测量

whether there were clouds or not,

空中是否有云层，

because think about it:

因为你可以想一下：

If there are clouds, then you might have some rain,

如果空中有云层，那就有下雨的可能，

but if there are no clouds,

但是如果没有云层，

then it's actually impossible for it to rain.

那么就一点可能也没有。

These images show the onset of the rains

这些图像显示这个季节的肯尼亚

this season in Kenya.

雨季来临了。

You see that around March 6,

你看在3月6号左右，

the clouds move in and then disappear,

云层出现然后又消失了，

and then around the March 11,

然后在11号左右，

the clouds really move in.

云层真正的出现了。

That, and those clouds,

那些，和这些云层

were the onset of the rains this year.

是今年雨季的开始。

This satellite covers the whole of Africa

这颗卫星覆盖了整个非洲，

and goes back as far as 1984,

数据最远可追溯到1984年，

and that's important, because if you know

而这一点很重要，因为如果你知道

how many times a place has had a drought

一个地方在过去30年间

in the last 30 years,

发生了多少次旱灾，

you can make a pretty good estimate

那么你就可以很好的估计

what the chances are of drought in the future,

这个地方在未来发生旱灾的可能性，

and that means that you can put a price tag

这也就意味着

on the risk of drought.

你可以对旱灾的风险进行标价。

The data alone isn't enough.

单独的数据是不够的。

We devise agronomic algorithms

我们发明了农艺算法，

which tell us how much rainfall a crop needs and when.

它可以告诉我们一种作物 需要多少降雨以及何时需要

For example, for maize at planting,

例如，对于玉米的种植来说，

you need to have two days of rain

首先在农民播种时

for farmers to plant,

需要两天的降雨，

and then it needs to rain once every two weeks

然后为了使这种作物正常的发芽

for the crop to properly germinate.

需要每两个星期下一次雨。

After that, you need rain every three weeks

这之后，为了使它长出叶子，

for the crop to form its leaves,

需要每三个星期下一次雨，

whereas at flowering, you need it to rain more frequently,

然而到了花期，又需要更频繁的降雨，

about once every 10 days for the crop to form its cob.

大约是每10天下一次，以便它结棒。

At the end of the season,

最后到了收割的时候，

you actually don't want it to rain,

你又希望不要下雨，

because rains then can damage the crop.

因为雨水会对作物造成损害。

Devising such a cover is difficult,

发明这么一种算法是很困难的，

but it turned out the real challenge

但结果却证明真正的挑战

was selling insurance.

是销售保险。

We set ourselves a modest target

我们给自己定了一个很保守的目标，

of 500 farmers insured after our first season.

即在第一个农季之后让500名农民投保。

After a couple of months' intense marketing,

然而经过几个月紧锣密鼓的营销后，

we had signed up the grand total

总共只有185名农民

of 185 farmers.

签了保单。

I was disappointed and confounded.

我感到非常失望和困惑

Everybody kept telling me that farmers

人们不停地跟我说农民

wanted insurance,

想要保险，

but our prime customers simply weren't buying.

但我们主要的目标客户却并不购买。

They were waiting to see what would happen,

他们都在观望，

didn't trust insurance companies,

他们不信任保险公司，

or thought, "I've managed for so many years.

或者在想，“这么多年我都应付过来了，

Why would I buy insurance now?"

为什么我现在要买保险？“

Now many of you know microcredit,

你们中的很多人都知道小额信贷，

the method of providing small loans to poor people

就是尤努斯倡导的那种

pioneered by Muhammad Yunus,

为穷人提供小额贷款的方法。

who won the Nobel Peace Prize

尤努斯因为创建了

for his work with the Grameen Bank.

孟加拉乡村银行， 并与之共同获得了诺贝尔和平奖。

Turns out, selling microcredit

原来，推销小额信贷

isn't the same as selling insurance.

跟销售保险不一样。

For credit, a farmer needs to earn the trust of a bank,

对于信贷来说，农民首先需要获得银行的信任，

and if it succeeds, the bank will advance him money.

如果成功了，银行就会借钱给他。

That's an attractive proposition.

这是一件很诱人的事。

For insurance, the farmer needs to trust

但对于保险来说，农民首先要信任

the insurance company, and needs

保险公司，然后需要

to advance the insurance company money.

预付款给保险公司。

It's a very different value proposition.

这是迥然不同的价值主张。

And so the uptick of insurance has been slow,

因此投保人数的上涨非常缓慢，

with so far only 4.4 percent of Africans

目前为止仅有4.4%的非洲农民

taking up insurance in 2012,

在2012年买了保险，

and half of that number is in one country,

而且这个数字中的一半是一个国家贡献的，

South Africa.

那就是南非。

We tried for some years

我们尝试着直接向农民销售保险，

selling insurance directly to farmers,

尝试了很多年，

with very high marketing cost

获得的只是非常高的销售成本

and very limited success.

和有限的成果。

Then we realized that there were many organizations

然后我们想到了

working with farmers:

那些与农民合作的机构：

seed companies, microfinance institutions,

种子公司、小额信贷机构、

mobile phone companies,

移动电话公司、

government agencies.

政府机构。

They were all providing loans to farmers,

他们都在为农民提供贷款，

and often, just before they'd finalize the loan,

经常地，就在他们完成贷款前，

the farmer would say,

农民可能会问：

"But what if it doesn't rain?

“如果不下雨怎么办？

How do you expect me to repay my loan?"

那我怎样偿还贷款？“

Many of these organizations

许多这样的机构

were taking on the risk themselves,

只好自己承担风险，

simply hoping that that year,

干脆希望这一年

the worst wouldn't happen.

最严重的情况不会发生。

Most of the organizations, however,

然而，大多数的机构

were limiting their growth in agriculture.

都在限制农业方面的贷款的增长。

They couldn't take on this kind of risk.

他们承担不了这种风险。

These organizations became our customers,

这些机构成为了我们的客户，

and when combining credit and insurance,

然后当把信贷和保险结合在一起时，

interesting things can happen.

有趣的事情会发生。

Let me tell you one more story.

让我再给你们讲一个故事。

At the start of February 2012 in western Kenya,

2012年2月初在肯尼亚西部，

the rains started, and they started early,

降雨开始了，雨水来得很早，

and when rains start early, farmers are encouraged,

当雨水来得早的时候，农民会受到鼓励，

because it usually means that the season is going to be good.

因为这通常意味着一季的收成会不错。

So they took out loans and planted.

因此他们拿出贷款购买物资，然后播种。

For the next three weeks,

但接下来三个星期，

there wasn't a single drop of rain,

滴雨不下，

and the crops that had germinated so well

那些已些长势良好的作物

shriveled and died.

都枯死了。

We'd insured the loans of a microfinance institution

我们给一家小额信贷机构 提供了担保，

that had provided those loans

他们为这一区域大约6000个农民

to about 6,000 farmers in that area,

提供了贷款。

and we called them up and said,

我们打电话告诉他们：

"Look, we know about the drought.

“嘿，我们知道干旱的事情。

We've got you.

而且了解你们的状况。

We'll give you 200,000 Euros at the end of the season."

我们会在这一农季结束时赔偿20万欧元。“

They said, "Wow, that's great,

他们说：“哇，那太好了，

but that'll be late.

但是等到那时就晚了。

Could you give us the money now?

你们能现在就把这些钱给我们吗？

Then these farmers can still replant

这样的话，农民还可以补种

and can get a harvest this season."

并且能在本季获得收成。“

So we convinced our insurance partners,

因此我们说服了我们的保险合作伙伴，

and later that April, these farmers replanted.

在四月末的时候，这些农民都补种了庄稼。

We took the idea of replanting to a seed company

我们把这种补种的方法 告诉了一家种子公司，

and convinced them to price the cost of insurance

并且说服了他们 在每一包种子的袋上

into every bag of seed,

标上保险费用，

and in every bag, we packed a card

在每一个袋子里

that had a number on it,

都有一张标有数字的卡片，

and when the farmers would open the card,

当农民打开这张卡片时，

they'd text in that number,

他们会将上面的数字发送给我们，

and that number would actually help us

这个数字将帮助我们

to locate the farmer

确定这个农民的位置

and allocate them to a satellite pixel.

并且将他们标记到一个卫星像素上

A satellite would then measure the rainfall

卫星会测量

for the next three weeks,

接下来三个星期的降雨

and if it didn't rain,

如果没有降雨，

we'd replace their seed.

我们会给他们换种子

One of the first —

最早的一个——

(Applause) — Hold on, I'm not there!

（掌声）等等，我还没说完呢！

One of the first beneficiaries of this replanting guarantee

这种补种担保最早的受益人之一

was Bosco Mwinyi.

是Bosco Mwinyi

We visited his farm later that August,

在八月的晚些时候 我们访问了他的农场

and I wish I could show you the smile on his face

他向我们展示收成时的那种笑容，

when he showed us his harvest,

我真希望能在此重现

because it warmed my heart

因为它温暖了我的心窝

and it made me realize why selling insurance

并且使我意识到为什么销售保险

can be a good thing.

可以是一件好事

But you know, he insisted

他坚持

that we get his whole harvest in the picture,

让我们将他所有的收成都照在一张照片上

so we had to zoom out a lot.

因此我们不得不将镜头拉得很远

Insurance secured his harvest that season,

保险保障了他这一季的收成，

and I believe that today,

并且今天我相信，

we have all the tools to enable African farmers

我们拥有所有的方法使得非洲农民

to take control of their own destiny.

能够掌控他们自己的命运

No more years of the cup.

不再有杯子之年

Instead, I am looking forward to, at least somehow,

相反，在某种程度上， 我正期盼着

the year of the insurance,

保险之年

or the year of the great harvest.

或者丰收之年

Thank you.

谢谢

(Applause)

（掌声）