Rose Goslinga: Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding

譯者: Regina Chu 審譯者: Bighead Ge

In Kenya, 1984 is known

在肯亞，人稱 1984 年

as the year of the cup,

為杯子之年，

or the goro goro.

或稱咕嚕咕嚕。

The goro goro is a cup used to measure

咕嚕咕嚕是一種量杯，

two kilograms of maize flower on the market,

在市場上拿來秤兩公斤的玉米粒，

and the maize flower is used to make ugali,

而玉米粒則拿來煮烏伽黎，

a polenta-like cake that is eaten together with vegetables.

一種很像義式玉米粥的餅， 與蔬菜同吃。

Both the maize and the vegetables are grown

玉米及蔬菜兩者都種在

on most Kenyan farms,

大部分的肯亞農場上，

which means that most families can feed themselves

也就是說大部分的家庭

from their own farm.

都能自給自足。

One goro goro can feed three meals

一杯咕嚕咕嚕能做出三頓餐點

for an average family,

給一個普通人家吃，

and in 1984, the whole harvest

而 1984 年，一年的總收穫

could fit in one goro goro.

只能裝滿一杯咕嚕咕嚕。

It was and still is one of the worst droughts

這到現在仍是人們記憶中 最慘的旱災。

in living memory.

Now today, I insure farmers against droughts

今天，我提供保險給農民對抗

like those in the year of the cup,

像杯子之年的旱災。

or to be more specific, I insure the rains.

或更精確的說，我確保降雨。

I come from a family of missionaries

我來自一個傳教士家族，

who built hospitals in Indonesia,

先人曾在印尼蓋醫院，

and my father built a psychiatric hospital

我的父親則在坦尚尼亞 蓋了間精神病醫院。

in Tanzania.

This is me, age five, in front of that hospital.

這是我，五歲，在那間醫院前。

I don't think they thought I'd grow up

我從不認為他們會想到我長大後

to sell insurance. (Laughter)

要賣保險。（笑聲）

So let me tell you how that happened.

所以讓我告訴你們這怎麼發生的。

In 2008, I was working

2008 年，我在

for the Ministry of Agriculture of Rwanda,

盧安達的農業部工作，

and my boss had just been promoted

我的頂頭上司升了官

to become the minister.

成為部長。

She launched an ambitious plan

她發起一項雄心勃勃的計畫

to start a green revolution in her country,

要在她的國家開始綠色革命，

and before we knew it, we were importing

在我們瞭解狀況之前， 我們就從國外先進口

tons of fertilizer and seed

很多噸的肥料及種子，

and telling farmers how to apply that fertilizer

並告訴農民如何施肥及種植。

and plant.

A couple of weeks later,

幾個星期後，

the International Monetary Fund visited us,

國際貨幣基金組織來拜訪我們，

and asked my minister,

並問我的部長，

"Minister, it's great that you want to help farmers

「部長，這是好事，你要幫農民

reach food security, but what if it doesn't rain?"

達成糧食安全， 但是如果不下雨怎麼辦？」

My minister answered proudly

我的部長很自負的回答

and somewhat defiantly,

也有點挑戰的意味，

"I am going to pray for rain."

「我要祈禱降雨。」

That ended the discussion.

這回答終結了討論。

On the way back to the ministry in the car,

在回到部裡的車上，

she turned around to me and said,

她轉頭向我說

"Rose, you've always been interested in finance.

「蘿絲，妳一向都對財務很有興趣。

Go find us some insurance."

去替我們找找保險。」

It's been six years since,

六年過了，

and last year I was fortunate enough

去年我很幸運

to be part of a team that insured

能成為保險團隊的一員，

over 185,000 farmers in Kenya and Rwanda

替在肯亞及盧安達 超過十八萬五千民農夫

against drought.

投保旱災險。

They owned an average of half an acre

他們擁有平均約半畝的地，

and paid on average two Euros in premium.

保費平均在二歐元左右。

It's microinsurance.

這是微型保險。

Now, traditional insurance doesn't work

那麼，傳統保險業不會保

with two to three Euros of premium,

只有二、三歐元保費的保險，

because traditional insurance relies on farm visits.

因為傳統的保險要靠查勘農場。

A farmer here in Germany would be visited

在德國這裡，一位農夫可能會在

for the start of the season, halfway through,

農季開始、期中、

and at the end, and again if there was a loss,

及農季結束時被查勘， 如果有損失，

to estimate the damages.

還要再來估算賠償金。

For a small-scale farmer in the middle of Africa,

對一個中非的小農，

the maths of doing those visits

這些查勘怎麼算

simply don't add up.

都不合算。

So instead, we rely on technology and data.

所以我們要靠科技 及數據代替現場查勘。

This satellite measures

這個衛星測量

whether there were clouds or not,

一個地方有沒有雲，

because think about it:

因為你想一下：

If there are clouds, then you might have some rain,

如果有雲，大概就會降雨，

but if there are no clouds,

但是如果沒有雲，

then it's actually impossible for it to rain.

那一點下雨的機會都沒有。

These images show the onset of the rains

這些影像顯示

這個季節肯亞雨季來臨。

this season in Kenya.

You see that around March 6,

你看大概在三月六日

the clouds move in and then disappear,

雲飄進來然後消失，

and then around the March 11,

然後大約在三月十一日

the clouds really move in.

雲真的進來了。

That, and those clouds,

那個，及這些雲

were the onset of the rains this year.

是本年雨季的開始。

This satellite covers the whole of Africa

這個衛星涵蓋整個非洲，

and goes back as far as 1984,

並可回溯早至 1984 年，

and that's important, because if you know

而這很重要，因為如果你知道

how many times a place has had a drought

一個地方在過去 30 年

in the last 30 years,

發生過多少次旱災，

you can make a pretty good estimate

你就可以做個還滿準的估算

what the chances are of drought in the future,

看看未來乾旱的機會有多大。

and that means that you can put a price tag

也就是說你可以標價

on the risk of drought.

在乾旱風險上。

The data alone isn't enough.

只靠數據是不夠的。

We devise agronomic algorithms

我們還設計了農事演算法，

which tell us how much rainfall a crop needs and when.

告訴我們一種作物需要 多少降雨及何時降雨。

For example, for maize at planting,

舉個例，在玉米栽植期

you need to have two days of rain

你需要兩天的雨

for farmers to plant,

給農夫下種用，

and then it needs to rain once every two weeks

然後要每兩個星期下一次雨

for the crop to properly germinate.

讓作物好好發芽。

After that, you need rain every three weeks

之後，你要每三星期下一次雨

for the crop to form its leaves,

讓作物長葉子，

whereas at flowering, you need it to rain more frequently,

在開花期，你需要更頻繁的降雨，

about once every 10 days for the crop to form its cob.

大概每十天一次讓作物結穗。

At the end of the season,

在生長期尾聲，

you actually don't want it to rain,

你其實不想要下雨

because rains then can damage the crop.

因為雨會破壞作物收成。

Devising such a cover is difficult,

要做到這麼廣的設計的確很難

but it turned out the real challenge

但結果證明賣保險才是真的挑戰。

was selling insurance.

We set ourselves a modest target

我們給自己制定還算合理的目標，

of 500 farmers insured after our first season.

希望在第一季後 有約 500 位農夫投保。

After a couple of months' intense marketing,

在幾個月的強力行銷後，

we had signed up the grand total

我們簽下了總計

of 185 farmers.

185 位農夫。

I was disappointed and confounded.

我好失望，非常不解。

Everybody kept telling me that farmers

每個人都說農夫

wanted insurance,

想要買保險，

but our prime customers simply weren't buying.

但是我們的主要客戶就是不買。

They were waiting to see what would happen,

他們在觀望會發生什麼事，

didn't trust insurance companies,

不信任保險公司，

or thought, "I've managed for so many years.

或是想，「我都撐了這麼多年了，

Why would I buy insurance now?"

為什麼現在還要我買保險？」

Now many of you know microcredit,

在座很多人都知道微型信貸，

the method of providing small loans to poor people

就是提供窮人一小筆貸款的方法，

pioneered by Muhammad Yunus,

由穆罕默德·尤納斯首創，

who won the Nobel Peace Prize

他得了諾貝爾和平獎，

for his work with the Grameen Bank.

因他在孟加拉鄉村銀行的作為。

Turns out, selling microcredit

事實證明，賣微型信貸

isn't the same as selling insurance.

與賣一般保險截然不同。

For credit, a farmer needs to earn the trust of a bank,

在信貸方面， 農夫必須得到銀行的信任，

and if it succeeds, the bank will advance him money.

如果成功了，銀行就會墊款給他。

That's an attractive proposition.

那是很吸引人的提議。

For insurance, the farmer needs to trust

在保險方面，

農夫得信任保險公司，

the insurance company, and needs

to advance the insurance company money.

還得預付保險公司錢。

It's a very different value proposition.

那是非常不同的價值主張。

And so the uptick of insurance has been slow,

所以保險的漲勢很慢

with so far only 4.4 percent of Africans

到目前為止只有 4.4% 的非洲人

taking up insurance in 2012,

在 2012 年投保，

and half of that number is in one country,

而且還有半數是來自同一個國家，

South Africa.

南非。

We tried for some years

我們試了幾年

selling insurance directly to farmers,

要直接賣保險給農夫，

with very high marketing cost

行銷成本很高，

and very limited success.

成功卻極為有限。

Then we realized that there were many organizations

然後我們才知道已經有很多組織

working with farmers:

與農夫合作：

seed companies, microfinance institutions,

種苗公司、微型金融機構、

mobile phone companies,

手機公司、

government agencies.

政府單位。

They were all providing loans to farmers,

他們都提供貸款給農民，

and often, just before they'd finalize the loan,

而且常常就在他們完成貸款之前，

the farmer would say,

農民會說，

"But what if it doesn't rain?

「可是如果不下雨怎麼辦？

How do you expect me to repay my loan?"

這樣我要怎麼還貸款？」

Many of these organizations

這種組織很多

were taking on the risk themselves,

都會自行吸收風險，

simply hoping that that year,

只希望那一年

the worst wouldn't happen.

最壞的情況不會發生。

Most of the organizations, however,

但是，大部分的組織

were limiting their growth in agriculture.

都會限制他們在農業部門的成長。

They couldn't take on this kind of risk.

他們無法承擔這種風險。

These organizations became our customers,

這些組織就成了我們的客戶，

and when combining credit and insurance,

而且當你把信貸與保險結合，

interesting things can happen.

有趣的事就發生了。

Let me tell you one more story.

讓我再說一個故事。

At the start of February 2012 in western Kenya,

2012 年二月初，在肯亞西部

the rains started, and they started early,

雨季開始了，而且很早就開始。

and when rains start early, farmers are encouraged,

當雨季早早開始，農夫都很受鼓舞，

because it usually means that the season is going to be good.

因為這通常意味著這季會有好收成。

So they took out loans and planted.

所以他們開始借貸栽種。

For the next three weeks,

接下來三星期，

there wasn't a single drop of rain,

連一滴雨都沒有，

and the crops that had germinated so well

原本發芽得很好的作物

shriveled and died.

枯萎死亡。

We'd insured the loans of a microfinance institution

我們擔保一家微型金融機構的貸款，

that had provided those loans

而他們已經提供貸款

to about 6,000 farmers in that area,

給那個地區大約六千民農夫，

and we called them up and said,

我們打電話給他們，說：

"Look, we know about the drought.

「聽好，我們瞭解旱情。

We've got you.

我們會幫你一把。

We'll give you 200,000 Euros at the end of the season."

我們會在季末時給你二十萬歐元。」

They said, "Wow, that's great,

他們說：「哇，那很棒，

but that'll be late.

但是那太遲了。

Could you give us the money now?

你能不能現在就把錢給我們？

Then these farmers can still replant

這樣這些農夫還能及時補植，

and can get a harvest this season."

這季還有收穫。」

So we convinced our insurance partners,

所以我們說服我們的保險事業夥伴，

and later that April, these farmers replanted.

之後那個四月，這些農夫補植。

We took the idea of replanting to a seed company

我們把補植的想法 告訴一家種苗公司，

and convinced them to price the cost of insurance

並說服他們把保險的費用

into every bag of seed,

加在每一袋種子上，

and in every bag, we packed a card

在每一袋種子裡， 我們都包一張小卡，

that had a number on it,

上面有一個數字，

and when the farmers would open the card,

當農夫打開那張卡片，

they'd text in that number,

他們就把上面的數字傳給我們，

and that number would actually help us

那個數字可以實際幫助我們

to locate the farmer

確定那位農夫的地點，

and allocate them to a satellite pixel.

並把他們寫進一個衛星像元裡。

A satellite would then measure the rainfall

衛星就可以測量

for the next three weeks,

未來三星期的降雨。

and if it didn't rain,

如果沒下雨

we'd replace their seed.

我們就換新的種子給他們。

One of the first —

第一批—

(Applause) — Hold on, I'm not there!

（掌聲）等等，我還沒講完！

One of the first beneficiaries of this replanting guarantee

第一批這個補植保證的受益人，

was Bosco Mwinyi.

其中有一位叫波思科·米尼。

We visited his farm later that August,

之後那年八月我們去查訪他的農田，

and I wish I could show you the smile on his face

我真的很想讓你們看看他臉上

when he showed us his harvest,

在展示他的收穫給我們看時的笑容。

because it warmed my heart

因為那溫暖了我的心，

and it made me realize why selling insurance

而且讓我瞭解為什麼賣保險

can be a good thing.

是件好事。

But you know, he insisted

但你知道，他堅持

that we get his whole harvest in the picture,

要我們把他所有的收成 都照在一張相片裡，

so we had to zoom out a lot.

所以我們得把鏡頭拉很遠。

Insurance secured his harvest that season,

保險確保了他那季的收成，

and I believe that today,

而我相信今天，

we have all the tools to enable African farmers

我們擁有一切的方法， 能賦予非洲農民

to take control of their own destiny.

掌握他們自己命運的能力。

No more years of the cup.

不再有杯子之年。

Instead, I am looking forward to, at least somehow,

相反的，我很期待，至少一點點

the year of the insurance,

保險之年，

or the year of the great harvest.

或大豐收之年。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）