Rose Goslinga: Crop insurance, an idea worth seeding

Prevoditelj: Ivan Stamenković Recezent: Ivana Kordic

In Kenya, 1984 is known

U Keniji, 1984. poznata je

as the year of the cup,

kao godina ćupa,

or the goro goro.

ili goro goro godina.

The goro goro is a cup used to measure

Goro goro je ćup koji se koristi za mjerenje

two kilograms of maize flower on the market,

dva kilograma kukuruznog brašna na tržnici,

and the maize flower is used to make ugali,

i kukuruzno brašno se koristi za pravljenje ugalija,

a polenta-like cake that is eaten together with vegetables.

kolača od palente koji se jede s povrćem.

Both the maize and the vegetables are grown

I kukuruz i povrće su uzgojeni

on most Kenyan farms,

na većini kenijskih farmi,

which means that most families can feed themselves

što znači da se većina obitelji može hraniti

from their own farm.

s vlastitih farmi.

One goro goro can feed three meals

Jedan goro goro dovoljan je za tri obroka

for an average family,

prosječne obitelji,

and in 1984, the whole harvest

i 1984., cijela žetva

could fit in one goro goro.

stala je u jedan goro goro.

It was and still is one of the worst droughts

To je bila i još uvijek jest jedna od najgorih suša

in living memory.

kojih se sjećamo.

Now today, I insure farmers against droughts

Danas, osiguravam farmere protiv suša

like those in the year of the cup,

poput one u godini ćupa,

or to be more specific, I insure the rains.

ili da budem točnija, osiguravam kišu.

I come from a family of missionaries

Dolazim iz obitelji misionara

who built hospitals in Indonesia,

koji su gradili bolnice u Indoneziji,

and my father built a psychiatric hospital

i moj otac izgradio je psihijatrijsku bolnicu

in Tanzania.

u Tanzaniji.

This is me, age five, in front of that hospital.

Ovo sam ja, s pet godina, ispred te bolnice.

I don't think they thought I'd grow up

Mislim da nisu vjerovali da ću odrasti

to sell insurance. (Laughter)

da prodajem osiguranje. (Smijeh)

So let me tell you how that happened.

Dozvolite da vam kažem kako se to dogodilo.

In 2008, I was working

2008. radila sam

for the Ministry of Agriculture of Rwanda,

za ministarstvo poljoprivrede u Rwandi,

and my boss had just been promoted

i moja je šefica upravo bila promaknuta

to become the minister.

na mjesto ministrice.

She launched an ambitious plan

Lansirala je ambiciozan plan

to start a green revolution in her country,

da započne zelenu revoluciju u svojoj zemlji,

and before we knew it, we were importing

i prije nego smo se snašli, uvozili smo

tons of fertilizer and seed

tone gnojiva i sjemena

and telling farmers how to apply that fertilizer

i govorili farmerima kako da koriste to gnojivo

and plant.

i sade.

A couple of weeks later,

Nekoliko tjedana kasnije,

the International Monetary Fund visited us,

posjetio nas je Međunarodni monetarni fond

and asked my minister,

i pitao moju ministricu,

"Minister, it's great that you want to help farmers

"Ministrice, divno je što želite pomoći farmerima

reach food security, but what if it doesn't rain?"

da pribave sigurnost u hrani, ali što ako ne pada kiša?"

My minister answered proudly

Moja ministrica ponosno je odgovorila

and somewhat defiantly,

i pomalo prkosno,

"I am going to pray for rain."

"Molit ću se za kišu."

That ended the discussion.

To je završilo raspravu.

On the way back to the ministry in the car,

Na povratku u ministarstvo u autu,

she turned around to me and said,

okrenula se prema meni i rekla,

"Rose, you've always been interested in finance.

"Rose, tebe su uvijek zanimale financije.

Go find us some insurance."

Nađi nam osiguranje."

It's been six years since,

Od tada je prošlo šest godina,

and last year I was fortunate enough

i prošle godine imala sam sreće

to be part of a team that insured

postati dio tima koji je osigurao

over 185,000 farmers in Kenya and Rwanda

preko 185,000 farmera u Keniji i Rwandi

against drought.

protiv suše.

They owned an average of half an acre

Posjedovali su u prosjeku pola hektara

and paid on average two Euros in premium.

i platili premiju od dva eura u prosjeku.

It's microinsurance.

To je mikroosiguranje.

Now, traditional insurance doesn't work

Sad, tradicionalno osiguranje ne radi

with two to three Euros of premium,

s premijama od dva do tri eura,

because traditional insurance relies on farm visits.

jer se tradicionalno osiguranje oslanja na posjete farmama.

A farmer here in Germany would be visited

Farmer u Njemačkoj bio bi posjećen

for the start of the season, halfway through,

na početku sezone, na pola,

and at the end, and again if there was a loss,

i na kraju, i ponovno ako bi bilo gubitka,

to estimate the damages.

kako bi se procijenila šteta.

For a small-scale farmer in the middle of Africa,

Za malog farmera usred Afrike,

the maths of doing those visits

matematika obavljanja tih posjeta

simply don't add up.

jednostavno nije vrijedila.

So instead, we rely on technology and data.

Umjesto toga, oslanjamo se na tehnologiju i podatke.

This satellite measures

Ovaj satelit mjeri

whether there were clouds or not,

je li bilo oblaka ili ne,

because think about it:

jer razmislite:

If there are clouds, then you might have some rain,

ako ima oblaka, možda će biti kiše,

but if there are no clouds,

ali ako nema oblaka,

then it's actually impossible for it to rain.

onda je nemoguće da pada kiša.

These images show the onset of the rains

Ove slike pokazuju početak kiša

this season in Kenya.

ove sezone u Keniji.

You see that around March 6,

Vidite da se oko 6. ožujka

the clouds move in and then disappear,

oblaci miču i nestaju,

and then around the March 11,

i zatim, oko 11. ožujka,

the clouds really move in.

oblaci stvarno dolaze.

That, and those clouds,

To, i ovi oblaci,

were the onset of the rains this year.

bili su početak kiša ove godine.

This satellite covers the whole of Africa

Ovaj satelit pokriva cijelu Afriku

and goes back as far as 1984,

i datira unatrag do 1984.,

and that's important, because if you know

i to je važno, jer ako znate

how many times a place has had a drought

koliko puta je neko mjesto imalo sušu

in the last 30 years,

u posljednjih 30 godina,

you can make a pretty good estimate

možete dobro procijeniti

what the chances are of drought in the future,

koje su šanse za sušu u budućnosti,

and that means that you can put a price tag

i onda možete staviti cijenu

on the risk of drought.

na rizik suše.

The data alone isn't enough.

Sami podaci nisu dovoljni.

We devise agronomic algorithms

Stvaramo agronomske algoritme

which tell us how much rainfall a crop needs and when.

koji nam govore koliko kiše usjev treba i kada.

For example, for maize at planting,

Na primjer, za sjetvu kukuruza,

you need to have two days of rain

trebate dva dana kiše

for farmers to plant,

kako bi farmeri sadili,

and then it needs to rain once every two weeks

i onda treba padati kiša jednom u dva tjedna

for the crop to properly germinate.

kako bi usjev proklijao.

After that, you need rain every three weeks

Nakon toga trebate kišu svaka tri tjedna

for the crop to form its leaves,

da bi se formirali listovi,

whereas at flowering, you need it to rain more frequently,

gdje za cvjetanje trebati kišu češće,

about once every 10 days for the crop to form its cob.

otprilike jednom u 10 dana kako bi se formirao klip.

At the end of the season,

Na kraju sezone,

you actually don't want it to rain,

zapravo ne želite da kiši,

because rains then can damage the crop.

jer kiša tada može oštetiti usjev.

Devising such a cover is difficult,

Osmisliti takvo pokrivanje je teško,

but it turned out the real challenge

ali ispalo je da je pravi izazov

was selling insurance.

prodati osiguranje.

We set ourselves a modest target

Postavili smo si skromne ciljeve

of 500 farmers insured after our first season.

od 500 farmera osiguranih nakon prve sezone.

After a couple of months' intense marketing,

Nakon nekoliko mjeseci intenzivnog marketinga,

we had signed up the grand total

pridružilo nam se ukupno

of 185 farmers.

185 farmera.

I was disappointed and confounded.

Bila sam razočarana i zbunjena.

Everybody kept telling me that farmers

Svi su mi govorili da farmeri

wanted insurance,

žele osiguranje,

but our prime customers simply weren't buying.

ali naše najvažnije mušterije nisu kupovale.

They were waiting to see what would happen,

Čekali su da vide što će se dogoditi,

didn't trust insurance companies,

nisu vjerovali osiguravajućim kućama,

or thought, "I've managed for so many years.

ili su mislili, "Uspijevao sam tolike godine.

Why would I buy insurance now?"

Što će mi sada osiguranje?"

Now many of you know microcredit,

Puno vas zna za mikrokredite,

the method of providing small loans to poor people

metodu davanja malih pozajmica siromašnima

pioneered by Muhammad Yunus,

koje je pokrenuo Muhammad Yunus,

who won the Nobel Peace Prize

koji je osvojio Nobelovu nagradu za mir

for his work with the Grameen Bank.

za rad sa Grameen Bankom.

Turns out, selling microcredit

Ispada da prodaja mikrokredita

isn't the same as selling insurance.

nije ista kao prodaja osiguranja.

For credit, a farmer needs to earn the trust of a bank,

Za kredit, farmer mora pridobiti povjerenje banke,

and if it succeeds, the bank will advance him money.

i ako uspije, banka će mu dati novac.

That's an attractive proposition.

To je privlačna propozicija.

For insurance, the farmer needs to trust

Za osiguranje, farmer mora vjerovati

the insurance company, and needs

osiguravajućoj kući, i treba

to advance the insurance company money.

dati novac osiguravajućoj kući.

It's a very different value proposition.

To je vrlo drugačija propozicija vrijednosti.

And so the uptick of insurance has been slow,

Tako da je porast osiguranja bio spor,

with so far only 4.4 percent of Africans

za sada s 4.4. posto Afrikanaca

taking up insurance in 2012,

koji su uzeli osiguranje u 2012.,

and half of that number is in one country,

i pola tog broja je u jednoj zemlji,

South Africa.

Južnoj Africi.

We tried for some years

Pokušavali smo kroz nekoliko godina

selling insurance directly to farmers,

prodavati osiguranje izravno farmerima

with very high marketing cost

s visokim troškovima marketinga

and very limited success.

i ograničenim uspjehom.

Then we realized that there were many organizations

Onda smo shvatili da postoji puno organizacija

working with farmers:

koje rade s farmerima:

seed companies, microfinance institutions,

seed tvrtke, mikrofinancijske institucije,

mobile phone companies,

mobilni operateri,

government agencies.

vladine agencije.

They were all providing loans to farmers,

Oni su svi davali pozajmice farmerima

and often, just before they'd finalize the loan,

i često, taman prije dovršetka pozajmice,

the farmer would say,

farmer bi rekao,

"But what if it doesn't rain?

"Ali što ako ne kiši?

How do you expect me to repay my loan?"

Kako očekujete da ću vam vratiti zajam?"

Many of these organizations

Mnoge od ovih organizacija

were taking on the risk themselves,

preuzimale su rizik na sebe,

simply hoping that that year,

nadajući se da se te godine,

the worst wouldn't happen.

neće dogoditi najgore.

Most of the organizations, however,

Većina organizacija, ipak,

were limiting their growth in agriculture.

ograničavala je svoj rast u poljoprivredi.

They couldn't take on this kind of risk.

Nisu mogli podnijeti takav rizik.

These organizations became our customers,

Ove organizacije postale su naše mušterije,

and when combining credit and insurance,

i kada kombiniramo kredite i osiguranje,

interesting things can happen.

zanimljive stvari mogu se dogoditi.

Let me tell you one more story.

Dozvolite da vam ispričam još jednu priču.

At the start of February 2012 in western Kenya,

Početkom veljače 2012. u zapadnoj Keniji,

the rains started, and they started early,

kiše su počele, i počele su rano,

and when rains start early, farmers are encouraged,

i kada kiše počnu rano, farmere potiču,

because it usually means that the season is going to be good.

jer to većinom znači da će sezona biti dobra.

So they took out loans and planted.

Tako da su uzeli pozajmice i sadili.

For the next three weeks,

Sljedeća tri tjedna,

there wasn't a single drop of rain,

nije bilo jedne kapi kiše,

and the crops that had germinated so well

i usjevi koji su proklijali tako dobro

shriveled and died.

smežurali su se i umrli.

We'd insured the loans of a microfinance institution

Osigurali smo pozajmice mikrofinancijske institucije

that had provided those loans

koja daje te pozajmice za

to about 6,000 farmers in that area,

otprilike 6,000 farmera u tom području,

and we called them up and said,

i nazvali smo ih i rekli,

"Look, we know about the drought.

"Gledajte, znamo za sušu.

We've got you.

Pokrit ćemo vas.

We'll give you 200,000 Euros at the end of the season."

Dat ćemo vam 200,000 eura na kraju sezone."

They said, "Wow, that's great,

Rekli su, "Wow, to je odlično,

but that'll be late.

no to će biti kasno.

Could you give us the money now?

Možete li nam sada dati novac?

Then these farmers can still replant

Tako da ovi farmeri mogu ponovno saditi

and can get a harvest this season."

i imati žetvu ove sezone."

So we convinced our insurance partners,

Tako da smo uvjerili naše osiguravajuće partnere,

and later that April, these farmers replanted.

i kasnije tog travnja, ovi farmeri su ponovno sadili.

We took the idea of replanting to a seed company

Odnijeli smo ideju ponovnog sađenja tvrtci koja se bavi prodajom sjemena

and convinced them to price the cost of insurance

i uvjerili ih da cijenu osiguranja

into every bag of seed,

uključe u svaku vreću sjemena,

and in every bag, we packed a card

i u svakoj vreći bila je upakirana kartica

that had a number on it,

koja je imala broj,

and when the farmers would open the card,

i kada bi je farmeri otvorili,

they'd text in that number,

poslali bi poruku s tim brojem,

and that number would actually help us

i taj broj nam je pomogao

to locate the farmer

locirati farmera

and allocate them to a satellite pixel.

i pridružiti im piksel satelita.

A satellite would then measure the rainfall

Potom bi satelit mjerio kišu

for the next three weeks,

sljedeća tri tjedna,

and if it didn't rain,

i ako ne bi kišilo,

we'd replace their seed.

zamijenili bi im sjeme.

One of the first —

Jedan od prvih —

(Applause) — Hold on, I'm not there!

(Pljesak) — Pričekajte, nije gotovo!

One of the first beneficiaries of this replanting guarantee

Jedan od prvih primatelja ove garancije ponovne sadnje

was Bosco Mwinyi.

bio je Bosco Mwinyi.

We visited his farm later that August,

Posjetili smo njegovu farmu kasnije u kolovozu,

and I wish I could show you the smile on his face

i željela bih da vam mogu pokazati osmjeh na njegovom licu

when he showed us his harvest,

kada nam je pokazao svoju žetvu,

because it warmed my heart

jer je to zagrijalo moje srce

and it made me realize why selling insurance

i pomoglo mi shvatiti zašto prodaja osiguranja

can be a good thing.

može biti dobra stvar.

But you know, he insisted

Ali znate, on je inzistirao

that we get his whole harvest in the picture,

da uslikamo cijelu žetvu,

so we had to zoom out a lot.

tako da smo se morali dosta udaljiti.

Insurance secured his harvest that season,

Osiguranje mu je omogućilo žetvu te sezone,

and I believe that today,

i vjerujem da danas,

we have all the tools to enable African farmers

imamo sve alate da afričkim farmerima omogućimo

to take control of their own destiny.

da preuzmu vlastitu sudbinu.

No more years of the cup.

Nema više godina ćupa.

Instead, I am looking forward to, at least somehow,

Umjesto toga, veselim se, na neki način,

the year of the insurance,

godini osiguranja,

or the year of the great harvest.

ili godini odlične žetve.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Pljesak)