Bill Ford: A future beyond traffic gridlock

翻译人员: Lili Liang 校对人员: Lan Xu

By birth and by choice,

我这辈子与汽车的不解之缘

I've been involved with the auto industry my entire life,

既是与生俱来又是个人的选择

and for the past 30 years,

过去30年里

I've worked at Ford Motor Company.

我一直在福特汽车公司工作

And for most of those years,

过去

I worried about,

我关心的总是

how am I going to sell more cars and trucks?

如何把更多的汽车卖出去

But today I worry about,

而今天我所担心的是

what if all we do is sell more cars and trucks?

如果我们所做的仅仅只是卖出更多的汽车

What happens

如果路上的车辆数量

when the number of vehicles on the road doubles, triples,

翻了一倍，两倍，甚至三倍

or even quadruples?

会有什么后果？

My life is guided by two great passions,

我一生所钟爱的有两样事物

and the first is automobiles.

第一样就是汽车

I literally grew up with the Ford Motor Company.

我其实就是在福特汽车公司里长大的

I thought it was so cool as a little boy

儿时

when my dad would bring home the latest Ford or Lincoln

当父亲把最新版的福特或林肯车开回家，停在路边

and leave it in the driveway.

我觉得这真是太酷了

And I decided about that time, about age 10,

十岁的时候我下定决心

that it would be really cool if I was a test driver.

要是我能当上测试驾驶员，那该多好啊

So my parents would go to dinner.

我的父母去吃晚餐的时候

They'd sit down; I'd sneak out of the house.

等他们一坐下来，我就偷偷溜出去

I'd jump behind the wheel and take the new model around the driveway,

跳上驾驶座，开着新车到路上遛弯

and it was a blast.

真是太过瘾了

And that went on for about two years,

就这么过了两年

until -- I think I was about 12 --

直到--我大概12岁--

my dad brought home

我父亲把一辆林肯MarkIII

a Lincoln Mark III.

开回家

And it was snowing that day.

那一天正好下雪

So he and mom went to dinner,

他和妈妈去吃晚餐

and I snuck out

我就溜了出去

and thought it'd be really cool to do donuts

我想在雪里转几个圈

or even some figure-eights in the snow.

再走几个8字，应该会很酷

My dad finished dinner early that evening.

我父亲当晚提早吃好了晚餐

And he was walking to the front hall

他走到前厅

and out the front door

走到前门

just about the same time I hit some ice

与此同时，我的车撞上了一块冰

and met him at the front door with the car --

冲到了前门，被他撞个正着

and almost ended up in the front hall.

还差点冲进前厅

So it kind of cooled my test-driving for a little while.

这次经历让我的试车生涯暂告一段落

But I really began to love cars then.

但从那以后我真正地爱上了汽车

And my first car was a 1975 electric-green Mustang.

我的第一辆车就是1975年产的电光绿野马

And even though the color was pretty hideous,

尽管颜色相当难看

I did love the car,

但我非常喜爱这辆车

and it really cemented my love affair with cars

它实实在在地奠定了我对车的迷恋

that's continued on to this day.

这种感情延续至今

But cars are really more than a passion of mine;

汽车不仅仅是我所喜爱的事物

they're quite literally in my blood.

我跟它们的缘分是与生俱来的

My great grandfather was Henry Ford,

我的曾祖父就是亨利.福特

and on my mother's side,

而在我母亲那边

my great grandfather was Harvey Firestone.

我的曾外公就是哈卫.凡士通

So when I was born,

我一出生

I guess you could say expectations were kind of high for me.

就肩负众望

But my great grandfather, Henry Ford,

而我的曾祖父亨利.福特

really believed that the mission of the Ford Motor Company

坚定地相信福特汽车公司的使命

was to make people's lives better

就是让人们的生活更美好

and make cars affordable so that everyone could have them.

让所有人都买得起车

Because he believed that with mobility

他相信，有了动力

comes freedom and progress.

就有了自由和进步

And that's a belief that I share.

我也是这么相信的

My other great passion is the environment.

而我热爱的第二样事物就是环境

And as a young boy, I used to go up to Northern Michigan

我曾去过密歇根州北部

and fish in the rivers that Hemingway fished in

在海明威钓过鱼的地方钓鱼

and then later wrote about.

他后来在书上写到过这里

And it really struck me

多年之后

as the years went by,

这里的变化

in a very negative way,

让我感到震惊

when I would go to some stream that I'd loved,

我曾去到我喜爱的小溪

and was used to walking through this field

步行穿越那片

that was once filled with fireflies,

飞满了萤火虫的田地

and now had a strip mall or a bunch of condos on it.

而现在那里变成了商场或公寓区

And so even at a young age,

因此即使当时我还年少

that really resonated with me,

这还是给了我很大的震动

and the whole notion of environmental preservation,

保护环境的基本意识

at a very basic level, sunk in with me.

就在我内心扎根了

As a high-schooler, I started to read

上高中后，我开始阅读

authors like Thoreau and Aldo Leopold

梭罗，阿尔多.李奥帕德

and Edward Abbey,

和爱德华.艾比等作家的书

and I really began to develop

我对于自然世界

a deeper appreciation of the natural world.

萌生了更深层次的感情

But it never really occurred to me

我从来没有想过

that my love of cars and trucks

我对汽车和卡车的挚爱

would ever be in conflict with nature.

竟然会与自然相冲突

And that was true

我的确是这样认为的

until I got to college.

直到我上了大学

And when I got to college, you can imagine my surprise

初到大学，你们可以想象得到我的惊讶

when I would go to class

上课时

and a number of my professors would say

教授们会说

that Ford Motor Company and my family

美国之所以出现问题

was everything that was wrong with our country.

全都是福特汽车公司以及我们家族的责任

They thought that we were more interested, as an industry,

他们认为我们注重的是整个行业是否赚钱

in profits, rather than progress,

而不是进步

and that we filled the skies with smog --

是我们让天空乌烟瘴气

and frankly, we were the enemy.

我们是国家的大敌

I joined Ford after college,

大学毕业后我进入了福特公司

after some soul searching

在此之前我对此举是否明智

whether or not this is really the right thing to do.

做了一些思想斗争

But I decided that I wanted to go

而我最终决定进入公司

and see if I could affect change there.

看看是否能够做出改变

And as I look back over 30 years ago,

回想三十年前

it was a little naive to think at that age

曾认为自己有这个能力

that I could. But I wanted to.

这实在有些天真，但我的确有这个志愿

And I really discovered

我也发现

that my professors weren't completely wrong.

教授们所说的并不全是错的

In fact, when I got back to Detroit,

实际上，我回到底特律后发现

my environmental leanings weren't exactly embraced

我的公司

by those in my own company,

以及行业中的其它公司

and certainly by those in the industry.

对我的环保倾向并不欢迎

I had some very interesting conversations,

你可以想象到

as you can imagine.

我碰到了一些非常有趣的对话

There were some within Ford

福特公司里的一些人

who believed that all this ecological nonsense

认为这些保护环境的废话

should just disappear

应被禁止

and that I needed to stop hanging out

我也应当停止

with "environmental wackos."

与“环保狂人”来往

I was considered a radical.

我被认为是一名激进分子

And I'll never forget the day I was called in by a member of top management

我永远忘不了那一天我被某管理高层叫到办公室

and told to stop associating

被要求停止

with any known or suspected environmentalists.

与任何已知或疑似环保人士为伍

(Laughter)

（众人笑）

Of course, I had no intention of doing that,

当然，我并没有理会

and I kept speaking out about the environment,

我还是坚持倡导保护环境

and it really was the topic

这就是我们今天

that we now today call sustainability.

所谈论的可持续性

And in time, my views went from controversial

现在，我的观点从饱受非议

to more or less consensus today.

变成多少为众人所接受

I mean, I think most people in the industry

我是说，我认为行业中大多数人

understand that we've got to get on with it.

都明白我们必须采取行动了

And the good news is today we are tackling the big issues,

好消息是，我们现正在设法解决

of cars and the environment --

关于汽车与环境的大问题－－

not only at Ford, but really as an industry.

不仅是福特，全行业都是如此

We're pushing fuel efficiency to new heights.

我们将燃料效能推向新的高度

And with new technology,

通过使用新技术

we're reducing -- and I believe, someday we'll eliminate --

我们正在减少－－我相信，总有一天，能够消灭－－

CO2 emissions.

二氧化碳尾气

We're starting to sell electric cars, which is great.

我们开始销售电动汽车，这非常好

We're developing alternative powertrains

同时开发新动力传送器

that are going to make cars affordable

让所有车

in every sense of the word --

变得经济实惠

economically, socially

无论从经济上，社会上

and environmentally.

还是环境上来说

And actually, although we've got a long way to go

事实上，尽管我们的工作

and a lot of work to do,

任重道远

I can see the day where my two great passions --

我依然能够预见到我热衷的两项事业－－

cars and the environment --

汽车和环境－－

actually come into harmony.

和谐发展的一天

But unfortunately,

可惜的是

as we're on our way to solving one monstrous problem --

尽管我们正在解决这一个重大的问题－－

and as I said, we're not there yet; we've got a lot of work to do,

正如我所说的，我们还有很长的路要走

but I can see where we will --

但我能预见到我们会达到－－

but even as we're in the process of doing that,

即使我们正在为此努力

another huge problem is looming,

另一个重大的问题开始威胁我们

and people aren't noticing.

而人们还没有注意到

And that is the freedom of mobility

我曾祖父

that my great grandfather brought to people

为世人带来的出行自由

is now being threatened, just as the environment is.

正如环境一样受到威胁

The problem, put in its simplest terms,

这个问题，用最简单的方式表述

is one of mathematics.

就是一个数学问题

Today there are approximately 6.8 billion people in the world,

今天全球人口大约68亿

and within our lifetime, that number's going to grow

在我们有生之年，这个数字将上升

to about nine billion.

至90亿

And at that population level,

在这样的人口水平下

our planet will be dealing with the limits of growth.

我们的地球将面临发展的限制

And with that growth

这样的人口增长

comes some severe practical problems,

将导致一些严重的现实问题

one of which is our transportation system

其中一个问题就是

simply won't be able to deal with it.

交通系统无法承受人口负重

When we look at the population growth in terms of cars,

如果我们把人口增长和汽车联系起来看

it becomes even clearer.

情况就更明了了

Today there are about 800 million cars on the road worldwide.

全球目前大约有8亿辆车行驶在路上

But with more people

全球人口越多

and greater prosperity around the world,

发展得越兴盛

that number's going to grow

到了本世纪中叶

to between two and four billion cars by mid century.

这个数字将增长至20亿至40亿辆车

And this is going to create the kind of global gridlock

这将造成空前的

that the world has never seen before.

全球交通大拥堵

Now think about the impact

想象一下

that this is going to have on our daily lives.

这对我们的日常生活会有什么影响

Today the average American

现今平均每个美国人

spends about a week a year

每年有将近一周的时间

stuck in traffic jams,

花在了堵车上

and that's a huge waste of time and resources.

这浪费了大量的时间和资源

But that's nothing compared

这还不算什么

to what's going on

那些发展最快的国家

in the nations that are growing the fastest.

情况比这严重得多

Today the average driver in Beijing

在北京，每个司机每天

has a five-hour commute.

花在路上的平均时间是五个小时

And last summer -- many of you probably saw this --

去年夏天－－你们很多人可以已经看到这消息－－

there was a hundred-mile traffic jam

中国有一次花了11天

that took 11 days to clear in China.

才疏通了长达100英里的交通大拥堵

In the decades to come,

在未来的几十年后

75 percent of the world's population

全球75%的人口

will live in cities,

将生活在城市里

and 50 of those cities

其中的50多个城市

will be of 10 million people or more.

人口将超过一亿人

So you can see the size of the issue that we're facing.

你们可以看到我们面临问题有多大了

When you factor in population growth,

如果你把人口问题考虑进去

it's clear that the mobility model that we have today

就不难看到，我们今天拥有的移动模式

simply will not work tomorrow.

在将来是行不通的

Frankly, four billion clean cars on the road

很显然，四十亿辆环保车行驶在路上

are still four billion cars,

仍旧是四十亿辆车啊

and a traffic jam with no emissions

没有废气的交通拥堵

is still a traffic jam.

仍旧是交通拥堵啊

So, if we make no changes today,

如果我们今天不做出改变

what does tomorrow look like?

明天怎么办？

Well I think you probably already have the picture.

我想你们可能已经心里有数了

Traffic jams are just a symptom of this challenge,

交通拥堵只是这个挑战的一个症状

and they're really very, very inconvenient,

堵车是非常不方便的

but that's all they are.

堵车就会带来不便

But the bigger issue

而更大的问题是

is that global gridlock

全球的交通拥堵

is going to stifle economic growth

将严重威胁经济增长

and our ability to deliver

扼杀我们运输食物

food and health care,

提供医疗服务的能力

particularly to people that live in city centers.

尤其是向生活在城市中心的人们

And our quality of life is going to be severely compromised.

我们的生活质量将被大打折扣

So what's going to solve this?

有什么解决方法呢？

Well the answer isn't going to be more of the same.

答案可能不尽相同

My great grandfather once said

在发明T型车之前

before he invented the Model T,

我曾祖父曾说

"If I had asked people then what they wanted,

“如果我问当时的人们它们想要什么

they would have answered,

他们会回答

'We want faster horses.'"

‘我们想要跑得更快的马’”

So the answer to more cars

所以，更多车辆的问题

is simply not to have more roads.

不能通过修更多的路来解决

When America began moving west,

当美国开始西进运动时

we didn't add more wagon trains,

我们并没有添置更多的大篷车

we built railroads.

而是建了铁路

And to connect our country after World War II,

在二战后，为了连通国家交通网

we didn't build more two-lane highways,

我们并没有建双向高速公路

we built the interstate highway system.

而是建了州际高速公路体系

Today we need that same leap in thinking

现在我们需要在思想上实现相同的跳跃

for us to create a viable future.

以创造一个坚实的未来

We are going to build smart cars,

我们要制造智能汽车

but we also need to build

我们也要制造

smart roads, smart parking,

智能道路，智能停车位

smart public transportation systems and more.

智能公共运输系统等等

We don't want to waste our time

我们不想把时间浪费在

sitting in traffic, sitting at tollbooths

堵车，收费站

or looking for parking spots.

或寻找停车位上

We need an integrated system

我们需要一个综合体系

that uses real time data

采用实时数据

to optimize personal mobility on a massive scale

优化大范围的个人移动性

without hassle or compromises for travelers.

保证出行者行动不受影响不打折口

And frankly, that's the kind of system

显然，这样的体系

that's going to make the future of personal mobility sustainable.

才能够保证未来个人行动自由的可持续性

Now the good news is some of this work has already begun

值得高兴的是，这项工作在世界的不同地方

in different parts of the world.

已经开工了

The city of Masdar in Abu Dhabi

阿布扎比市的玛斯达尔

uses driverless electric vehicles

采用能够相互沟通的

that can communicate with one another,

无人驾驶电动车

and they go underneath the city streets.

它们在城市街道的地下行动

And up above, you've got a series of pedestrian walkways.

而在地上是一系列人行道

On New York City's 34th Street,

纽约市的34号大街

gridlock will soon be replaced

将堵车取而代之的

with a connected system

是一个四通八达的

of vehicle-specific corridors.

车辆专用通道系统

Pedestrian zones and dedicated traffic lanes are going to be created,

人行区和专用交通通道将被建起

and all of this will cut down the average rush hour commute

这一切都将把纽约市

to get across town in New York

交通拥堵高峰期平均时间

from about an hour today at rush hour

从现在的1个小时

to about 20 minutes.

缩短到20分钟

Now if you look at Hong Kong,

你们看香港

they have a very interesting system called Octopus there.

他们有一套有意思的系统，被称为“八达通”

It's a system that really ties together

这个系统

all the transportation assets

将所有交通资产

into a single payment system.

统一到一个单独的支付系统

So parking garages, buses, trains,

这样，停车场，公车，火车

they all operate within the same system.

都在同一个系统下运行

Now shared car services

现在拼车服务

are also springing up around the world,

在全世界也遍地开花了

and these efforts, I think, are great.

我认为，这些行动都非常好

They're relieving congestion,

它们缓解了交通拥堵

and they're frankly starting to save some fuel.

当然也帮助节省了一些燃油

These are all really good ideas

这些都是十分棒的想法

that will move us forward.

能够推动我们的进步

But what really inspires me

而真正给我启发的是

is what's going to be possible

当我们的车开始相互交谈

when our cars can begin talking to each other.

会是什么情况

Very soon, the same systems that we use today

很快，我们今天使用的

to bring music and entertainment

将音乐、娱乐

and GPS information into our vehicles

和GPS信息嵌入车辆的这个系统

are going to be used to create

将被用于建设

a smart vehicle network.

一个智能车辆网络

Every morning I drive about 30 miles

每天早晨我从安娜堡的家

from my home in Ann Arbor to my office in Dearborn, Michigan.

开车30英里去到我在密歇根州迪尔伯恩的办公室

And every night I go home,

每天晚上

my commute is a total crapshoot.

我回家的路途总是被堵得水泄不通

And I often have to leave the freeway

我常常不得不离开高速路

and look for different ways

另找其它出路

for me to try and make it home.

才能回到家

But very soon we're going to see the days

但很快，我们就能看到

when cars are essentially talking to each other.

汽车相互沟通的那一天

So if the car ahead of me on I-94 hits traffic,

如果在我前面的一辆车在I-94号路上遇到塞车

it will immediately alert my car

它就会立即通知我的车

and tell my car to reroute itself

让我的车另寻出路

to get me home in the best possible way.

这样我就能找到回家的最佳路径

And these systems are being tested right now,

这些系统都在接受测试

and frankly they're going to be ready for prime time pretty soon.

它们很快就会被正式投入运行

But the potential of a connected car network

车辆连接网络的潜力

is almost limitless.

几乎是无限的

So just imagine:

试想一下

one day very soon,

在不久的将来

you're going to be able to plan a trip downtown

你们能够在市中心计划行程

and your car will be connected to a smart parking system.

而你的车就会被接入一个智能停车系统

So you get in your car,

接着，你上了车

and as you get in your car,

就在此时

your car will reserve you a parking spot before you arrive --

你的车在你到达之前为你预定一个停车位－－

no more driving around looking for one,

无需开着车到处找了

which frankly is one of the biggest users of fuel

开车找停车位

in today's cars in urban areas --

无疑是城市车辆

is looking for parking spots.

耗油最多的一方面

Or think about being in New York City

或者试想一下在纽约市里

and tracking down an intelligent cab on your smart phone

用智能电话定位一辆智能出租车

so you don't have to wait in the cold to hail one.

这样你就无需在冷风中苦苦等候了

Or being at a future TED Conference

或试想一下，你参加未来的TED会议时

and having your car

你的车

talk to the calendars of everybody here

把在座各位的日程表一查

and telling you all the best route to take home

挑选你们最佳的回家路径

and when you should leave

而在离开时

so that you can all arrive at your next destination on time.

你们都能够准时地到达下一个目的地

This is the kind of technology

这样的科技

that will merge millions of individual vehicles

能够将几百万辆车

into a single system.

统一到一个独立的体系中

So I think it's clear we have the beginnings of a solution

很显然，我们已经有了

to this enormous problem.

解决这个大问题的初步方案

But as we found out with addressing CO2 issues,

但是在我们应对二氧化碳排放问题

and also fossil fuels,

和燃料问题时发现

there is no one silver bullet.

问题的解决并不是一蹴而就的

The solution is not going to be

解决方案并不是

more cars, more roads or a new rail system;

使用更多的汽车，建设更多道路或新的铁路系统；

it can only be found, I believe,

解决问题的关键，我认为

in a global network

在这样一个全球网络中

of interconnected solutions.

解决方案都互相关联

Now I know we can develop the technology

我知道我们能够研发出这样的技术

that's going to make this work,

使得这一切成为现实

but we've got to be willing to get out there

我们也愿意

and seek out the solutions --

去寻找解决方案－－

whether that means vehicle sharing or public transportation

不论是使用拼车或公共交通

or some other way we haven't even thought of yet;

或其它我们还未想到的方法

our overall transportation-mix and infrastructure

我们的整体交通组合和基础设施

must support all the future options.

必须为未来的解决方案服务

We need our best and our brightest

我们需要最优秀、最有智慧的成员

to start entertaining this issue.

来解决这个问题

Companies, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists,

公司，企业家，风险资本家

they all need to understand

他们都必须明白

this is a huge business opportunity,

这是一项巨大的商机

as well as an enormous social problem.

同时也是一个巨大的社会问题

And just as these groups

正当这些人群

embrace the green energy challenge --

接受绿色能源的挑战之际－－

and it's really been amazing to me to watch

我感到非常惊喜

how much brain power, how much money

能看到如此多的脑力，资金

and how much serious thought

和认真的想法

has, really over the last three years,

在过去三年里

just poured into the green energy field.

被投入到绿色能源领域中

We need that same kind of passion and energy

我们需要以同样的热情和精力

to attack global gridlock.

来迎战全球交通拥堵

But we need people like all of you in this room,

我们需要像在座各位一样的人们

leading thinkers.

思想领导者们

I mean, frankly, I need all of you

显然，我需要你们所有人

to think about how

思考

you can help solve this huge issue.

你能够如何解决这个艰巨的问题

And we need people from all walks of life;

我们需要各行各业的人们

not just inventors, we need policymakers

而不只是投资者，我们需要决策者

and government officials

政府官员

to also think about how they're going to respond to this challenge.

一同来思考他们如何对这一挑战做出回应

This isn't going to be solved

这个问题不可能

by any one person or one group.

由一个人或一个组织独立解决

It's going to really require a national energy policy,

这需要一个国家级的能源政策

frankly for each country,

每个国家都如此

because the solutions in each country are going to be different

因为每个国家的解决方案会

based upon income levels, traffic jams

由于收入水平，交通拥堵程度

and also how integrated

和体统的整合度的不同

the systems already are.

而各有不同

But we need to get going, and we need to get going today.

但我们需要采取行动，今天就行动起来

And we must have an infrastructure

我们需要设计一套基础设施

that's designed to support

来支持

this flexible future.

这个灵活多变的未来

You know, we've come a long way.

要知道，我们已经走了很长的路程

Since the Model T,

自从T型车的问世

most people never traveled

大多数人再也不用

more than 25 miles from home in their entire lifetime.

花一生的时间穿越超过25英里的距离来回家

And since then,

自此

the automobile has allowed us the freedom

汽车让我们拥有

to choose where we live, where we work,

选择在哪里生活，工作

where we play

玩乐的自由

and frankly when we just go out and want to move around.

我们想去哪就去哪

We don't want to regress and lose that freedom.

我们不想倒退，失去这份自由

We're on our way to solving --

我们正在想办法解决－－

and as I said earlier, I know we've got a long way to go --

我之前说过，我知道我们任重道远－－

the one big issue that we're all focused on that threatens it,

我们所关注的对之造成威胁的那个大问题

and that's the environmental issue,

也就是环境问题

but I believe we all must turn

而我认为我们必须

all of our effort and all of our ingenuity and determination

竭尽全力

to help now solve this notion of global gridlock.

帮助解决全球交通拥堵问题

Because in doing so,

因为只有这样

we're going to preserve what we've really come to take for granted,

我们才能保证我们习以为常的

which is the freedom to move

出行自由

and move very effortlessly around the world.

让我们能够毫不费力地行遍世界

And it frankly will enhance our quality of life

如果我们解决这个问题

if we fix this.

很明显这能够提高我们的生活质量

Because, if you can envision, as I do,

因为，如果你能够像我一样预见到

a future of zero emissions

零尾气排放

and freedom to move around the country and around the world

实现在国家，世界自由通行

like we take for granted today,

我们今天并不在意

that's worth the hard work today

为了保证明天

to preserve that for tomorrow.

今天的辛苦是值得的

I believe we're at our best

我相信我们正在尽最大的努力

when we're confronted with big issues.

直面重大的问题

This is a big one, and it won't wait.

这是一个迫在眉睫的问题

So let's get started now.

我们现在就采取行动吧

Thank you.

谢谢大家

(Applause)

（众人鼓掌）