Bill Ford: A future beyond traffic gridlock

譯者: Abigail Hu 審譯者: Hsun Ying Tsai

By birth and by choice,

既是上帝的安排也是自我的選擇

I've been involved with the auto industry my entire life,

終其一生，我都與汽車行業有著不解之緣

and for the past 30 years,

30年來

I've worked at Ford Motor Company.

我一直在福特汽車公司工作

And for most of those years,

在這期間

I worried about,

我擔心得最多的是

how am I going to sell more cars and trucks?

怎樣才能把更多的轎車卡車賣出去

But today I worry about,

現在我最擔心的是

what if all we do is sell more cars and trucks?

我們一直這麼做的話會有什麽後果呢

What happens

如果路上的車輛

when the number of vehicles on the road doubles, triples,

翻了一倍，兩倍，三倍，甚至四倍

or even quadruples?

會有什麽後果

My life is guided by two great passions,

我的生命被兩種強大的熱情左右著

and the first is automobiles.

第一就是汽車

I literally grew up with the Ford Motor Company.

事實上，我是隨福特公司一同成長的

I thought it was so cool as a little boy

我還是個小孩的時候

when my dad would bring home the latest Ford or Lincoln

爸爸偶爾會把最新款的福特或林肯汽車開回家，停在門前的大道上

and leave it in the driveway.

這真是太酷了

And I decided about that time, about age 10,

那時的我大概10歲

that it would be really cool if I was a test driver.

我想，如果能當上汽車試駕員，該有多好啊

So my parents would go to dinner.

於是趁父母去吃晚飯

They'd sit down; I'd sneak out of the house.

他們坐下了，我就偷溜出去

I'd jump behind the wheel and take the new model around the driveway,

跳上駕駛座，把新傢伙開上車道到處趴趴走

and it was a blast.

太過癮了

And that went on for about two years,

我就這麼玩了兩年

until -- I think I was about 12 --

直到--我大概12歲--

my dad brought home

有一天我爸爸把一台林肯 III

a Lincoln Mark III.

開回家

And it was snowing that day.

那天正好在下雪

So he and mom went to dinner,

他和媽媽去吃晚飯

and I snuck out

我溜了出去

and thought it'd be really cool to do donuts

我覺得（開車）在雪上畫0字型

or even some figure-eights in the snow.

或8字型肯定特別好玩

My dad finished dinner early that evening.

但那晚爸爸的晚飯時間比往常要少

And he was walking to the front hall

他走向客廳

and out the front door

正要出門

just about the same time I hit some ice

我就在這時不巧撞到了冰

and met him at the front door with the car --

在大門口和他撞了個正著

and almost ended up in the front hall.

還差點沖進了客廳

So it kind of cooled my test-driving for a little while.

這一度讓我不想做試駕員了

But I really began to love cars then.

但從此以後，我就開始為車瘋狂了

And my first car was a 1975 electric-green Mustang.

我第一台車是1975年的電光綠野馬

And even though the color was pretty hideous,

儘管顏色真的很難看

I did love the car,

但我相當喜歡它

and it really cemented my love affair with cars

它堅定了我對車狂熱的愛好

that's continued on to this day.

這種熱情也延續至今

But cars are really more than a passion of mine;

但汽車不只是作為我的熱情存在的

they're quite literally in my blood.

我和它的緣分是與生俱來的

My great grandfather was Henry Ford,

我的曾祖父是亨利•福特

and on my mother's side,

而我的曾外祖父

my great grandfather was Harvey Firestone.

是哈维·費爾斯通

So when I was born,

我的出生

I guess you could say expectations were kind of high for me.

我猜你們肯定覺得我肩負眾望吧

But my great grandfather, Henry Ford,

但我的曾祖父亨利•福特

really believed that the mission of the Ford Motor Company

鑒定地相信福特汽車的使命

was to make people's lives better

是讓人們的生活更美好

and make cars affordable so that everyone could have them.

讓每一個人都買得起汽車

Because he believed that with mobility

因為他相信，有了移動能力

comes freedom and progress.

就會有自由和進步

And that's a belief that I share.

這也是我一直堅信的

My other great passion is the environment.

我的另一樣熱情是環保

And as a young boy, I used to go up to Northern Michigan

還是個少年的時候，我常去密歇根州北部

and fish in the rivers that Hemingway fished in

在海明威釣過魚的那條河釣魚

and then later wrote about.

那地方他在書中提過

And it really struck me

幾年後

as the years went by,

這裡的變化

in a very negative way,

卻著實令我震驚

when I would go to some stream that I'd loved,

當我重回小時候最喜歡的那條溪

and was used to walking through this field

穿越從前那片

that was once filled with fireflies,

螢火蟲飛舞的田野

and now had a strip mall or a bunch of condos on it.

眼前卻是鋼筋水泥的商場和公寓

And so even at a young age,

雖然當時很年輕

that really resonated with me,

我的內心卻被深深撼動了

and the whole notion of environmental preservation,

保護環境的意識

at a very basic level, sunk in with me.

在我心中油然而生

As a high-schooler, I started to read

上高中以後，我開始讀

authors like Thoreau and Aldo Leopold

梭羅，奧爾多·利奧波德，愛德華•艾比

and Edward Abbey,

等作家的書

and I really began to develop

我開始對自然界

a deeper appreciation of the natural world.

產生了一種更深層的仰慕

But it never really occurred to me

但我從未想過

that my love of cars and trucks

我摯愛的汽車竟然會

would ever be in conflict with nature.

與自然界背道而馳

And that was true

直到上大學

until I got to college.

我都是這麼認為的

And when I got to college, you can imagine my surprise

當我上了大學，你們可以想像我有多吃驚

when I would go to class

因為我上課時

and a number of my professors would say

許多教授都會譴責說

that Ford Motor Company and my family

福特公司，包括我的家庭

was everything that was wrong with our country.

所做的一切都與國家發展背道而馳

They thought that we were more interested, as an industry,

他們認為我們這個行業

in profits, rather than progress,

更重視盈利，而不是發展

and that we filled the skies with smog --

我們讓天空充滿廢氣

and frankly, we were the enemy.

再直白一點就是，我們是敵人

I joined Ford after college,

畢業後，我進入了福特

after some soul searching

我思來想去

whether or not this is really the right thing to do.

這是否是最佳的選擇

But I decided that I wanted to go

但最終我決定去嘗試

and see if I could affect change there.

看看我能不能改變它的形象

And as I look back over 30 years ago,

回過頭看30年前的自己

it was a little naive to think at that age

那時我很自信很天真

that I could. But I wanted to.

可我非常想這麼做

And I really discovered

然後我發現

that my professors weren't completely wrong.

教授的話也有一定道理

In fact, when I got back to Detroit,

實際上，我回到底特律以後

my environmental leanings weren't exactly embraced

我提出的環保想法

by those in my own company,

並沒有被公司員工所接受

and certainly by those in the industry.

更別說同行的公司了

I had some very interesting conversations,

我經歷過一些挺有趣的談話

as you can imagine.

你們可以想像了到

There were some within Ford

在福特公司有些人認為

who believed that all this ecological nonsense

這種環保的想法全是胡扯

should just disappear

不該存在的

and that I needed to stop hanging out

而我不應該

with "environmental wackos."

再與那些“環保主義怪人”為伍

I was considered a radical.

我被視為激進分子了

And I'll never forget the day I was called in by a member of top management

我永遠不會忘記，那天，我被一名高層叫過去

and told to stop associating

說我不可以再跟那些

with any known or suspected environmentalists.

環保主義分子有任何關係

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

Of course, I had no intention of doing that,

我當然沒有這麼做

and I kept speaking out about the environment,

我還是倡導環保

and it really was the topic

而我所謂的環保

that we now today call sustainability.

就是今天所說的永續發展

And in time, my views went from controversial

最終我的想法從當时的備受爭議

to more or less consensus today.

變成了大家如今的共識

I mean, I think most people in the industry

就是說，我想汽車行業的每個人

understand that we've got to get on with it.

都知道我們需要採取措施了

And the good news is today we are tackling the big issues,

好消息是，我們已經開始解決這些關於

of cars and the environment --

汽車及環保的重要問題

not only at Ford, but really as an industry.

不僅是福特公司，整個行業都在努力

We're pushing fuel efficiency to new heights.

我們把能源效率提升到一個新的至高點

And with new technology,

透過新技術

we're reducing -- and I believe, someday we'll eliminate --

我們正在減少CO2排放，並且相信有天我們會

CO2 emissions.

把它完全消除

We're starting to sell electric cars, which is great.

我們開始銷售電能車，這是個很好的點子

We're developing alternative powertrains

我們在開發替代能源

that are going to make cars affordable

這將降低製造和使用汽車

in every sense of the word --

所付出的代價

economically, socially

不管是經濟上，社會上

and environmentally.

還是環境方面

And actually, although we've got a long way to go

的確，我們還有很長的路要走

and a lot of work to do,

很多困難需要克服

I can see the day where my two great passions --

但我堅信，我生命中那兩種執著的熱情

cars and the environment --

汽車與環保

actually come into harmony.

相互融合的那天並不遙遠

But unfortunately,

不幸的是

as we're on our way to solving one monstrous problem --

雖然我們正在著手解决這個可怕的問題

and as I said, we're not there yet; we've got a lot of work to do,

我說過，我們現在還面臨著很多困難

but I can see where we will --

可我知道我們會成功

but even as we're in the process of doing that,

在我們努力的同時

another huge problem is looming,

另一個大問題也浮出水面了

and people aren't noticing.

一個近乎被忽視的問題

And that is the freedom of mobility

那就是自由移動

that my great grandfather brought to people

這是我曾祖父最先所提出的

is now being threatened, just as the environment is.

可現在它正和自然一樣，面臨著威脅

The problem, put in its simplest terms,

簡單來說，這是一個

is one of mathematics.

數學性的問題

Today there are approximately 6.8 billion people in the world,

目前世界大概有68億人

and within our lifetime, that number's going to grow

在我們一生中，這個數字可能上升到

to about nine billion.

90億左右

And at that population level,

那麼多人的話

our planet will be dealing with the limits of growth.

地球的負荷能力將被推至極限

And with that growth

人口急劇增長

comes some severe practical problems,

也帶來了日益嚴峻的實際問題

one of which is our transportation system

其中一個就是交通問題

simply won't be able to deal with it.

可以說，這是我們的交通體系完全無法承載的

When we look at the population growth in terms of cars,

如果從汽車數量的角度來看人口增長

it becomes even clearer.

結論就更明顯了

Today there are about 800 million cars on the road worldwide.

目前全球共有約8億台汽車

But with more people

但隨著人數增加

and greater prosperity around the world,

和全球財富的不斷增長

that number's going to grow

汽車數量必定會增加

to between two and four billion cars by mid century.

在本世紀中期，全球會有20-40億台汽車

And this is going to create the kind of global gridlock

這可能造成史無前例的

that the world has never seen before.

全球性交通癱瘓

Now think about the impact

請想想這會給我們

that this is going to have on our daily lives.

日常生活帶來怎樣的影響

Today the average American

在今天，美國平均每人

spends about a week a year

每年會有一個星期

stuck in traffic jams,

是在交通堵塞中度過的

and that's a huge waste of time and resources.

這可是對時間和資源的極大浪費

But that's nothing compared

可是，相比之下

to what's going on

在某些飛速發展的國家

in the nations that are growing the fastest.

美國這點問題就變得微不足道了

Today the average driver in Beijing

在北京，平均每個駕駛者

has a five-hour commute.

擁有5小時通勤時間

And last summer -- many of you probably saw this --

去年夏天，許多在場聽眾可能也目睹了，

there was a hundred-mile traffic jam

中國100英里的汽車長龍

that took 11 days to clear in China.

那次堵車過了11天才被疏通

In the decades to come,

在未來的幾十年中

75 percent of the world's population

世界75%的人口將會

will live in cities,

居住在城市

and 50 of those cities

這其中將有50個城市

will be of 10 million people or more.

人口過億

So you can see the size of the issue that we're facing.

可見我們所面臨的問題有多大

When you factor in population growth,

考慮人口增長的話，我們可以

it's clear that the mobility model that we have today

清楚地知道，現行的交通模式根本無法

simply will not work tomorrow.

在未來沿用

Frankly, four billion clean cars on the road

說到底，即便變成40億環保汽車

are still four billion cars,

還是有這麼多車在路上

and a traffic jam with no emissions

即便是無污染的交通堵塞

is still a traffic jam.

也改變不了癱瘓的交通

So, if we make no changes today,

因此，如果我們今天不採取措施

what does tomorrow look like?

明天會怎樣

Well I think you probably already have the picture.

我想結局大家都能料到吧

Traffic jams are just a symptom of this challenge,

塞車現象只是我們所面臨的挑戰中的

and they're really very, very inconvenient,

一個小小癥候，他們真的很不方便

but that's all they are.

但也不會有什麽嚴重後果

But the bigger issue

更大的問題在於

is that global gridlock

將來全球性的交通堵塞

is going to stifle economic growth

很可能成為經濟增長的絆腳石

and our ability to deliver

我們的食物供應

food and health care,

衛生保健服務

particularly to people that live in city centers.

會受到阻礙，尤其在市中心地區

And our quality of life is going to be severely compromised.

我們的生活品質也將受到相當大的威脅

So what's going to solve this?

那麼我們要怎麼做呢

Well the answer isn't going to be more of the same.

我們不能再用以前的方式了

My great grandfather once said

我曾祖父在發明T型汽車前

before he invented the Model T,

對我說

"If I had asked people then what they wanted,

“如果我問過去的人他們要什麽

they would have answered,

他們會說

'We want faster horses.'"

我們要跑得更快的馬”

So the answer to more cars

所以更多的道路

is simply not to have more roads.

並不能解決這個問題

When America began moving west,

當美國開始西進時

we didn't add more wagon trains,

我們並不是去瘋狂增加馬車數量

we built railroads.

我們建了鐵路

And to connect our country after World War II,

二戰後，我們並沒有去修建

we didn't build more two-lane highways,

更多的雙車道公路

we built the interstate highway system.

而是建立起洲際高速公路系統

Today we need that same leap in thinking

今天我們同樣需要這種偉大的跳躍性思維

for us to create a viable future.

來創造一個可實現的未來

We are going to build smart cars,

我們會製造出智能汽車

but we also need to build

我們同樣需要建立

smart roads, smart parking,

智能公路，智能停車場

smart public transportation systems and more.

智能交通系統等等

We don't want to waste our time

我們不想再把時間浪費在

sitting in traffic, sitting at tollbooths

堵塞的道路，收費站

or looking for parking spots.

或者在尋找車位上了

We need an integrated system

我們需要一個整合的體系

that uses real time data

它要能通過及時數據

to optimize personal mobility on a massive scale

大規模地優化個體車輛的自由移動度

without hassle or compromises for travelers.

而不會造成駕駛者之間的爭吵和妥協

And frankly, that's the kind of system

事實上，這就是那種

that's going to make the future of personal mobility sustainable.

能促進未來個體移動更具持續性的系統

Now the good news is some of this work has already begun

好消息是，這其中的一些工作在世界各地

in different parts of the world.

已有了進展

The city of Masdar in Abu Dhabi

在阿布達比的馬斯達爾市

uses driverless electric vehicles

已經出現了無人駕駛的電動汽車

that can communicate with one another,

這些車可以相互聯繫

and they go underneath the city streets.

它們行駛在地下車道上

And up above, you've got a series of pedestrian walkways.

而地面上，有一系列的人行步道

On New York City's 34th Street,

在纽约城的第34街

gridlock will soon be replaced

交通堵塞不久將通過

with a connected system

一個連接著汽車專用車道的

of vehicle-specific corridors.

網絡系統得到解決

Pedestrian zones and dedicated traffic lanes are going to be created,

行人區，車輛專用通道也將出現

and all of this will cut down the average rush hour commute

所有的這些，都將減少紐約高峰期的

to get across town in New York

平均通勤時間

from about an hour today at rush hour

大概可以從目前的1個小時

to about 20 minutes.

減少到20分鐘左右

Now if you look at Hong Kong,

再看看香港

they have a very interesting system called Octopus there.

他們創建了一個有趣的系統叫“八達通”

It's a system that really ties together

通過“八達通”

all the transportation assets

所有交通費用

into a single payment system.

都可方便地支付

So parking garages, buses, trains,

停車場，公車，火車

they all operate within the same system.

都是在同一個系統下運轉的

Now shared car services

現在共用汽車服務

are also springing up around the world,

在世界各位都蓬勃發展起來了

and these efforts, I think, are great.

我認為這些嘗試棒極了

They're relieving congestion,

這樣可以減輕堵塞

and they're frankly starting to save some fuel.

也可以減少燃料的消耗

These are all really good ideas

這些都是很好的想法

that will move us forward.

使我們不斷進步的想法

But what really inspires me

但真正激發我興趣的是

is what's going to be possible

當汽車可以相互聯繫

when our cars can begin talking to each other.

之後會發生什麽呢

Very soon, the same systems that we use today

那些在今天用來給我們

to bring music and entertainment

帶來音樂，娛樂

and GPS information into our vehicles

和導航信息的系統

are going to be used to create

將被改造成一個

a smart vehicle network.

智能汽車網絡系統

Every morning I drive about 30 miles

每天早上，我都要從安亞伯的家中

from my home in Ann Arbor to my office in Dearborn, Michigan.

行駛30英里到密歇根州迪爾本的辦公室

And every night I go home,

每當晚上下班了

my commute is a total crapshoot.

我回家的路總是充滿了風險

And I often have to leave the freeway

我經常被迫開下高速公路

and look for different ways

去找別的路

for me to try and make it home.

然後摸索著回家

But very soon we're going to see the days

但是很快我們就能看到

when cars are essentially talking to each other.

能相互交流的汽車出現了

So if the car ahead of me on I-94 hits traffic,

如果前面的車在公路上發生車禍

it will immediately alert my car

它會立刻警示我的車

and tell my car to reroute itself

並告知它自動去尋找

to get me home in the best possible way.

另一條回家的最佳路線

And these systems are being tested right now,

這類通訊系統目前已經在實驗期了

and frankly they're going to be ready for prime time pretty soon.

它們很快就能與我們見面了

But the potential of a connected car network

但是汽車通訊網絡的潛力

is almost limitless.

是無窮的

So just imagine:

想像一下：

one day very soon,

不久的將來

you're going to be able to plan a trip downtown

你想去市區走走

and your car will be connected to a smart parking system.

你的車會接入智能停車系統

So you get in your car,

你上了車

and as you get in your car,

還沒到市區

your car will reserve you a parking spot before you arrive --

你的車早已為你預約好了一個車位

no more driving around looking for one,

再也不用辛苦地找車位

which frankly is one of the biggest users of fuel

我們都知道，如今在市區里

in today's cars in urban areas --

尋找車位是汽油的

is looking for parking spots.

一大殺手

Or think about being in New York City

我們再想像，在未來的紐約城

and tracking down an intelligent cab on your smart phone

你可以用智能手機預約智能出租車

so you don't have to wait in the cold to hail one.

不再需要在寒冷中攔車了

Or being at a future TED Conference

或者在未來TED的會議上

and having your car

你可以利用你的車

talk to the calendars of everybody here

與在場所有人聯繫

and telling you all the best route to take home

並告訴你返家的最佳路線

and when you should leave

和離開的最佳時間

so that you can all arrive at your next destination on time.

這樣你就可以準時到達下一個目的地

This is the kind of technology

這種科技會把

that will merge millions of individual vehicles

上百萬台汽車統一整合至

into a single system.

一個網絡

So I think it's clear we have the beginnings of a solution

可以說，對於這個巨大的問題，我們已經

to this enormous problem.

有了一個好的開頭

But as we found out with addressing CO2 issues,

但是，如同我們解決CO2的問題

and also fossil fuels,

化石燃料的問題

there is no one silver bullet.

沒有一種方法是萬能的

The solution is not going to be

我們的解決方法不能是

more cars, more roads or a new rail system;

更多車，更多車道，或者新的鐵路系統

it can only be found, I believe,

我堅信，這需要

in a global network

一個全球性

of interconnected solutions.

多方合作的網絡來解決

Now I know we can develop the technology

這當中所需要的技術

that's going to make this work,

我們有能力研發出來

but we've got to be willing to get out there

我們需要的是用堅強的意志

and seek out the solutions --

去找到解決方案

whether that means vehicle sharing or public transportation

無論這意味著共用汽車還是公共交通

or some other way we haven't even thought of yet;

或者其他我們沒想過的方式

our overall transportation-mix and infrastructure

我們整體的交通組合與基礎設施

must support all the future options.

都必須能夠滿足未來所有需求

We need our best and our brightest

我們要讓最優秀的人

to start entertaining this issue.

去處理這個問題

Companies, entrepreneurs, venture capitalists,

公司夥伴，企業家，風險投資家

they all need to understand

他們都需要知道

this is a huge business opportunity,

這將是一個巨大的商機

as well as an enormous social problem.

也是一個非常大的社會問題

And just as these groups

當他們開始

embrace the green energy challenge --

面對綠色能源挑戰的同時

and it's really been amazing to me to watch

我看到這三年來

how much brain power, how much money

有那麼多努力，那麼多錢

and how much serious thought

那麼多想法

has, really over the last three years,

統統花在綠色能源問題上

just poured into the green energy field.

這令我很吃驚

We need that same kind of passion and energy

我們在解決全球性交通問題上需要

to attack global gridlock.

同樣的熱情與努力

But we need people like all of you in this room,

我們更需要像在場各位一樣的

leading thinkers.

前衛思想者

I mean, frankly, I need all of you

事實上，我需要你們

to think about how

去設想

you can help solve this huge issue.

你會怎麼解決這個大問題

And we need people from all walks of life;

我們需要各行各業的人們

not just inventors, we need policymakers

不僅是發明家，我們需要決策者

and government officials

政府官員們

to also think about how they're going to respond to this challenge.

去思考他們要如何面對這個挑戰

This isn't going to be solved

問題是無法通過

by any one person or one group.

個體的努力，或某個集團來解決的

It's going to really require a national energy policy,

它要求每個國家都能有一個全國性的

frankly for each country,

能源政策

because the solutions in each country are going to be different

因為各國的解決方式是不同的

based upon income levels, traffic jams

這基於各國不同的收入水平，交通狀況

and also how integrated

以及目前

the systems already are.

網絡的統一程度

But we need to get going, and we need to get going today.

但我們必須採取行動了，就現在

And we must have an infrastructure

我們需要設計出完善的

that's designed to support

基礎設施來應對

this flexible future.

多變的未來

You know, we've come a long way.

我們歷經長途跋涉才走到這裡

Since the Model T,

T型汽車上市前

most people never traveled

大多數人都不曾

more than 25 miles from home in their entire lifetime.

或可能一輩子都不會, 到離家超過25英里的地方

And since then,

但從那時起

the automobile has allowed us the freedom

汽車賦予了我們選擇居住環境

to choose where we live, where we work,

工作環境，娛樂環境的自由

where we play

也就是說

and frankly when we just go out and want to move around.

我們可以自由選擇什麽時候出去，去哪兒等等

We don't want to regress and lose that freedom.

我們不會倒退更不願失去那種自由

We're on our way to solving --

雖然我說過，我們還有

and as I said earlier, I know we've got a long way to go --

很長的路要走，我們已經在著手解決它了

the one big issue that we're all focused on that threatens it,

這個我們一直關注的大問題威脅著汽車的自由移動

and that's the environmental issue,

那就是環境問題

but I believe we all must turn

但我堅信，我們必須

all of our effort and all of our ingenuity and determination

投入全部的努力，創造力與決心

to help now solve this notion of global gridlock.

來解決所謂的全球性交通堵塞

Because in doing so,

因為只有這樣

we're going to preserve what we've really come to take for granted,

我們才能保護好一直被我們理所當然而擁有

which is the freedom to move

在世界各地

and move very effortlessly around the world.

輕鬆自在穿梭的自由

And it frankly will enhance our quality of life

如果我們真能做到，那我們的生活品質

if we fix this.

定能著實上升了

Because, if you can envision, as I do,

你們像我這樣去展望，就會知道

a future of zero emissions

在零碳排放的未來

and freedom to move around the country and around the world

我們自由自在的穿梭於世界

like we take for granted today,

就像現在我們視為是理所當然的一樣

that's worth the hard work today

這樣的生活值得我們

to preserve that for tomorrow.

用現在的努力去換取明天的擁有

I believe we're at our best

我相信我們始終都在用最好的狀態

when we're confronted with big issues.

面對各種重大的挑戰

This is a big one, and it won't wait.

這是一個巨大的挑戰，也不容等待

So let's get started now.

所以，現在就開始改變吧

Thank you.

謝謝

(Applause)

（掌聲）