Larry Brilliant: TED Prize wish: Help stop the next pandemic

翻译人员: Tony Yet 校对人员: Zachary Lin Zhao

I'm the luckiest guy in the world.

我是世界上最幸运的人

I got to see the last case of killer smallpox in the world.

我亲眼看到了世界最后一例的天花被消灭

今年我又到了印度

I was in India this past year,

我马上会看到世界最后一个小儿麻痹症案例

and I may have seen the last cases of polio in the world.

There's nothing that makes you feel more --

没有其他别的东西可以让你感到更加——尤其是当你在这一领域工作的话

the blessing and the honor of working in a program like that --

看到这些疾病被消灭

than to know that something that horrible no longer exists.

没有比这更大的光荣与幸福了

So I'm going to tell you --

接下来——（掌声）

(Applause)

so I'm going to show you some dirty pictures.

我会给大家展示一些很难看的图片

They are difficult to watch, but you should look at them with optimism,

它们很刺眼，但是我觉得我们需要以一种乐观主义的心态来看待它们

because the horror of these pictures will be matched

因为我们看到的这些恐怖的面容——

by the uplifting quality of knowing that they no longer exist.

造成这样的疾病已经被根除了

But first, I'm going to tell you a little bit about my own journey.

首先我想讲一下我自己的历史

My background is not exactly the conventional medical education

我并不是从传统的医学院出来的

that you might expect.

你也许想象不到

When I was an intern in San Francisco,

当我还是在旧金山当实习生的时候

我听说有一群北美的土著

I heard about a group of Native Americans who had taken over Alcatraz Island,

占据了恶魔岛

and a Native American who wanted to give birth on that island,

还有个土著希望在那个岛上生产

and no other doctor wanted to go and help her give birth.

但是没有任何一个医生愿意去那里为她提供帮助

I went out to Alcatraz, and I lived on the island for several weeks.

于是我去了恶魔岛, 在那里住了好几个星期

She gave birth; I caught the baby; I got off the island;

她顺利的生下了孩子，我也离开了那个岛

I landed in San Francisco;

去到了旧金山，所有的报纸都希望采访我

and all the press wanted to talk to me,

because my three weeks on the island made me an expert in Indian affairs.

似乎我在那个岛上三周的生活使我成为了印度问题专家

(Laughter)

I wound up on every television show.

于是我就上了电视

Someone saw me on television; they called me up; and they asked me

有人在电视上看到我，给我打电话

if I'd like to be in a movie and to play a young doctor

问我是否愿意在一部电影里扮演一个年轻医生的角色

for a bunch of rock and roll stars who were traveling in a bus ride

一起的还有一班摇滚明星，他们要从旧金山坐汽车去到伦敦

from San Francisco to England.

我说，很好啊

And I said, yes, I would do that,

so I became the doctor in an absolutely awful movie

于是我就在一部相当糟糕的影片里当上了医生

called "Medicine Ball Caravan."

影片名字是"Medicine Ball Caravan."

(Laughter)

Now, you know from the '60s,

提到60年代

you're either on the bus or you're off the bus; I was on the bus.

你不是在汽车上就是在汽车外

My wife of 37 years and I joined the bus.

我就在汽车上。我跟妻子两人加起来才37岁，就坐进了那样的汽车

Our bus ride took us from San Francisco to London,

汽车把我们从旧金山带到了伦敦

then we switched buses at the big pond.

在大湖区我们 换了汽车，后来还上了另外两辆汽车

We then got on two more buses

我们就穿过土耳其、伊朗、阿富汗

and we drove through Turkey and Iran, Afghanistan,

经过开伯尔山口,进入巴基斯坦。那时候很多年轻的医生都是这样

over the Khyber Pass into Pakistan, like every other young doctor.

This is us at the Khyber Pass, and that's our bus.

这是我们在开伯尔山口的照片，那是我们的汽车

We had some difficulty getting over the Khyber Pass.

要经过开伯尔山口还真不容易

But we wound up in India.

但反正最后到了印度

And then, like everyone else in our generation,

跟我们那个年代所有人一样

we went to live in a Himalayan monastery.

我们去了喜马拉雅山的一座寺庙

(Laughter)

（笑声）

This is just like a residency program,

就像是去那里实习

for those of you that are in medical school.

假如你是在医学院的话应该知道

(Laughter)

我们跟一非常智慧的导师学习，他叫Karoli Baba,

And we studied with a wise man, a guru named Karoli Baba,

who then told me to get rid of the dress,

后来他告诉我脱下这和尚袍

put on a three-piece suit,

穿上西装

go join the United Nations as a diplomat

加入联合国成为一名外交官

为世界卫生组织工作

and work for the World Health Organization.

And he made an outrageous prediction that smallpox would be eradicated,

他甚至预言，天花最终会被消灭的

and that this was God's gift to humanity,

这将会是上帝带给人类的礼物

because of the hard work of dedicated scientists.

另外也多得科学家的努力

And that prediction came true.

后来他的预言实现了，这个小女孩叫Rahima Banu,

This little girl is Rahima Banu,

and she was the last case of killer smallpox in the world.

她是世界上最后一例的天花感染个案

And this document is the certificate that the global commission signed,

这是一份文件，那是全球的委员会共同签署的

certifying the world to have eradicated the first disease in history.

显示人类历史上第一次消灭了一种疾病

The key to eradicating smallpox was early detection, early response.

消灭天花关键是早发现、早反应

I'm going to ask you to repeat that: early detection, early response.

希望大家可以跟我重复一遍，早发现、早反应

Can you say that?

可以吗？

Audience: Early detection, early response.

早发现、早反应

Larry Brilliant: Smallpox was the worst disease in history.

天花是历史上最糟糕的疾病

It killed more people than all the wars in history.

历史上因为感染这一疾病而死亡的人比所有在战争中死去的人还要多

In the last century, it killed 500 million people.

单单是20世纪，就有5亿人因为感染天花而死亡

You're reading about Larry Page already.

假如你已经看到了关于拉里·配奇的介绍

Somebody reads very fast.

有人肯定是阅读得很快

(Laughter)

在拉里·配奇和谢盖尔·柏林出生那一年

In the year that Larry Page and Sergey Brin --

with whom I have a certain affection and a new affiliation --

我跟他们有些关系并且最近还成立了一个新的组织

in the year in which they were born,

他们出生那一年

就有200万人因为这个病而死

two million people died of smallpox.

1980年，我们宣布世界根除了天花

We declared smallpox eradicated in 1980.

This is the most important slide that I've ever seen in public health,

这是我看到过的关于公共卫生的最重要一张幻灯片

[Sovereigns killed by smallpox] because it shows you

它告诉你，即使你再有钱、再健壮

to be the richest and the strongest,

and to be kings and queens of the world,

即使你是君王

did not protect you from dying of smallpox.

也不能免于天花之害

Never can you doubt that we are all in this together.

我们的命运都是联系在一起的，这一点无可质疑

But to see smallpox from the perspective of a sovereign

但从国家的角度

is the wrong perspective.

来看天花是错误的

You should see it from the perspective of a mother,

你应当从一位母亲的角色来看这个问题

watching her child develop this disease and standing by helplessly.

她只能看着自己的孩子受感染，而后病情一日一日恶化

Day one, day two, day three,

第一天、第二天、第三天、第四天、第五天、第六天

day four, day five, day six.

You're a mother and you're watching your child,

你是母亲，看着自己的孩子这个模样

and on day six, you see pustules that become hard.

到了第六天，你看到脓疱变硬

第七天，就看到天花成脐形

Day seven, they show the classic scars of smallpox umbilication.

Day eight.

第八天

And Al Gore said earlier

戈尔不久前说世界上印刷数量最多的照片是

that the most photographed image in the world,

the most printed image in the world,

地球的图片

was that of the Earth.

但是在1974年

But this was in 1974, and as of that moment,

在那个时候，这张图片是

this photograph was the photograph that was the most widely printed,

印刷最多的

because we printed two billion copies of this photograph,

我们一共印了二十亿张

and we took them hand to hand, door to door,

而后是逐家逐户的发放

向人们询问他们家里是否有天花病人

to show people and ask them if there was smallpox in their house,

because that was our surveillance system.

这就是我们的监控系统。我们那时候没有Google

We didn't have Google, we didn't have web crawlers,

也没有网络爬虫，没有计算机

we didn't have computers.

By day nine -- you look at this picture and you're horrified;

到第九天，看着这图片，你都会感到害怕

I look at this picture and I say, "Thank God,"

而我看到这图片，会说“谢天谢地”

because it's clear that this is only an ordinary case of smallpox,

因为很明显，这仅仅是一个普通的天花个案

and I know this child will live.

这个孩子是可以活下去的

And by day 13, the lesions are scabbing, his eyelids are swollen,

到了第十三天，伤痕会长痂，孩子的眼睑会下沉

but you know this child has no other secondary infection.

但可以知道，这孩子没有其他的二级感染

这是到了第二十天，孩子也许会终身都带着伤疤，但是他还是可以活下来

And by day 20, while he will be scarred for life, he will live.

还有别的天花并不是像这样的

There are other kinds of smallpox that are not like that.

This is confluent smallpox,

这是一种发散型的天花

in which there isn't a single place on the body where you could put a finger

你看整个身体

and not be covered by lesions.

连一跟指头大小没有被感染的肌肤也没有

Flat smallpox, which killed 100 percent of people who got it.

这是平坦天花, 一旦感染上就必定丧命

And hemorrhagic smallpox, the most cruel of all,

还有出血性天花，那是最毒的一种

which had a predilection for pregnant women.

怀孕妇女最容易感染

I've probably had 50 women die.

我见过至少50人因此而死亡，都是感染了这个病毒

They all had hemorrhagic smallpox.

I've never seen anybody die from it who wasn't a pregnant woman.

没有一个因此死去的不是怀孕妇女

In 1967, the WHO embarked on what was an outrageous program

1967年，世界卫生组织开始了一场极为浩大的运动

to eradicate a disease.

要根除一种疾病

In that year, there were 34 countries affected with smallpox.

那一年，有34个国家有天花个案

By 1970, we were down to 18 countries.

1970年，这一数字降到了18个

1974, we were down to five countries.

1974年, 五个

But in that year, smallpox exploded throughout India.

但是那一年，天花在印度感染蔓延开了

也就是在印度，我们见到了最后一宗的天花

And India was the place where smallpox made its last stand.

In 1974, India had a population of 600 million.

1974年，印度有6亿人

There are 21 linguistic states in India,

21种官方语言

which is like saying 21 different countries.

也就是相当于有21个不同的国家

There are 20 million people on the road at any time,

那个年代的任意时刻，都会有两千万的人不是在汽车上

in buses and trains, walking; 500,000 villages, 120 million households,

就是在火车上或在路上，我们走遍了50座村庄，走访了1.2亿户人家

and none of them wanted to report

但是没有人愿意跟我们说他们家有天花的个案

if they had a case of smallpox in their house,

because they thought that smallpox was the visitation of a deity,

他们认为感染天花是因为有天神降临

Shitala Mata, the cooling mother,

那天神就是Shitala Mata, 降温女神

and it was wrong to bring strangers into your house

另外，把 陌生人带到屋子里也是不被接受的

when the deity was in the house.

因为神就在屋子里，所以没有人愿意报告天花的案例

No incentive to report smallpox.

It wasn't just India that had smallpox deities;

也不仅仅是在印度才有关于天花的神的传说

smallpox deities were prevalent all over the world.

全世界各地都有这样的传说

So, how we eradicated smallpox was --

那我们是怎么根除了天花的呢？要大范围的接种是不可能的

mass vaccination wouldn't work.

You could vaccinate everybody in India,

即使今年给全印度的人注射了疫苗，但是下一年马上又有

but one year later there'd be 21 million new babies,

两千一百万新生婴孩

which was then the population of Canada.

这相当于加拿大的人口

It wouldn't do just to vaccinate everyone.

所以实现人人接种是不可能的

You had to find every single case of smallpox in the world

必须是找到世界上每一个的天花案例去治疗

at the same time, and draw a circle of immunity around it.

而与此同时也开展社区接种行动

And that's what we did.

我们做的就是这个

In India alone, my 150,000 best friends and I went door to door,

单单是在印度，我就有15万的朋友跟我一起

挨家挨户的拿着这照片问

with that same picture,

to every single house in India.

一共做了十亿次的家访

We made over one billion house calls.

And in the process, I learned something very important.

在这一过程中，我学到了很重要一点

Every time we did a house-to-house search,

我们每做一次家访

都会看到患病人数在上升

we had a spike in the number of reports of smallpox.

When we didn't search, we had the illusion that there was no disease.

当我们不是在调查的时候，会有一种错觉，认为这病已经根除了

When we did search, we had the illusion that there was more disease.

当我们在做调查的时候，就有另外 一种幻觉，以为事实比我们知道的严重得多

A surveillance system was necessary,

必须建立一个监控的体系

because what we needed was early detection, early response.

因为我们需要的是早发现早反应

So we searched and we searched,

我们不断的开展调查，并且找到了

and we found every case of smallpox in India.

印度的每一宗天花案例

We had a reward. We raised the reward.

我们设立一个举报的奖励机制。并且逐步提高奖金数额

We continued to increase the reward.

We had a scorecard that we wrote on every house.

在每家每户的得分板上都写着

And as we did that,

采取了这样的措施后，向我们报告患病的人数降到了零

the number of reported cases in the world dropped to zero.

1980年，我们宣布，天花在这个地球上被完全消灭

And in 1980, we declared the globe free of smallpox.

It was the largest campaign in United Nations history,

那是联合国在伊战以前所发起的最大一场运动

until the Iraq war.

来自全球的15万位医生

150,000 people from all over the world --

doctors of every race, religion, culture and nation,

他们来自不同的种族、宗教、文化以及国家

who fought side by side, brothers and sisters,

大家并肩作战

with each other, not against each other,

为的是使得这个世界变得更加美好

in a common cause to make the world better.

But smallpox was the fourth disease that was intended for eradication.

但天花是人类历史上第四次发起针对疾病的行动

We failed three other times.

我们先前的三次行动都失败了

We failed against malaria, yellow fever and yaws.

我们对疟疾、黄热病以及 yaws 的斗争都失败了

But soon we may see polio eradicated.

但后来我们看到了小儿麻痹症被消灭

But the key to eradicating polio is early detection, early response.

而实现这一目标的方法是早发现、早应对

This may be the year we eradicate polio.

今年我们也许可以赢得对小儿麻痹症的斗争

That will make it the second disease in history.

它将成为人类历史上第二次战胜一个疾病

And David Heymann, who's watching this on the webcast --

David Heymann, 他现在也在看直播

David, keep on going. We're close!

David, 坚持这样的斗争吧，我们马上就要胜利了。现在只剩下四个国家有感染个案了

We're down to four countries.

(Applause)

（掌声）

I feel like Hank Aaron.

现在我就像棒球手Hank Aaron一样，Barry Bonds什么时候都能顶替我

Barry Bonds can replace me any time.

Let's get another disease off the list of terrible things to worry about.

让我们再看看另外一个可怕的疾病

I was just in India working on the polio program.

不久前我在印度做小儿麻痹症的项目

The polio surveillance program is four million people going door to door.

这个项目我们逐家逐户的走访了400万户人家

That is the surveillance system.

这就是监控体系

But we need to have early detection, early response.

但需要强调的是，我们要早发现，早反应

Blindness, the same thing.

失明也是同样的道理。发现失明的关键是

The key to discovering blindness is doing epidemiological surveys

做传染病调查，并且发现致盲的原因

and finding out the causes of blindness,

so you can mount the correct response.

只有这样，我们才能找到正确的应对方法

The Seva Foundation was started by a group of alumni

Seva 基金会就是由当年参与消灭天花的

of the Smallpox Eradication Programme,

那群英雄发起的

who, having climbed the highest mountain,

他们登过了世界最高的山峰

tasted the elixir of the success of eradicating a disease,

尝试过因消灭一个顽疾而产生的快感

wanted to do it again.

并且希望再来一次

And over the last 27 years, Seva's programs in 15 countries

过去27年里，Seva基金会的项目在15个国家

have given back sight to more than two million blind people.

为200万人恢复了光明

Seva got started because we wanted to apply these lessons

因为我们希望把这样的预警以及相关的传染疾病的知识

of surveillance and epidemiology

应用到一个没有人会意识到

to something which nobody else was looking at as a public health issue:

是公共医疗问题的领域

也就是失明

blindness, which heretofore had been thought of only as a clinical disease.

人们以前认为那只是一个门诊能解决的病

In 1980, Steve Jobs gave me that computer, which is Apple number 12,

1980年，乔布斯把一台苹果电脑送给我，那是他们出产的第12台电脑

它现在还在加德满都，并且还能用

and it's still in Kathmandu, and it's still working,

and we ought to go get it and auction it off and make more money for Seva.

我想我们得去那里找到那台电脑，把它拍卖掉，拿那些钱用于支持Seva项目

And we conducted the first Nepal survey ever done for health,

我们也在尼泊尔开展了该国第一次的人口普查

and the first nationwide blindness survey ever done,

以及第一次全国失明个案调查

and we had astonishing results.

得到的结果是让人惊讶的

Instead of finding out what we thought was the case --

因为它跟我们设想的相差很大

that blindness was caused mostly by glaucoma and trachoma --

我们以为失明大多数是因为青光眼或沙眼所致

we were astounded to find out

但我们调查发现，失明的原因更多的是白内障

that blindness was caused instead by cataract.

要知道，医生只有当他知道事实上生了什么病，他才能对症下药

You can't cure or prevent what you don't know is there.

In your TED packages there's a DVD, "Infinite Vision,"

在你的TED礼品包里，有一张DVD，其标题是《无限视野》

about Dr. V and the Aravind Eye Hospital.

就是关于V博士以及他所创办的阿拉文眼科医院的

I hope that you will take a look at it.

希望大家有时间去看看

Aravind, which started as a Seva project,

阿拉文医院，一开始时是Seva基金会的一个项目

is now the world's largest and best eye hospital.

现在已经发展成为世界最好的眼科医院

This year, that one hospital will give back sight

今年一年，阿拉文将可以帮助

to more than 300,000 people in Tamil Nadu, India.

印度泰米尔纳德邦30万人恢复视力

(Applause)

（掌声）

Bird flu.

还有禽流感。我站在这里是代表了各种悲剧性的事情

I stand here as a representative of all terrible things --

this might be the worst.

这也许会变得更糟

The key to preventing or mitigating pandemic bird flu

解决和控制传染性禽流感的方法是

is early detection and rapid response.

早发现、早反应

We will not have a vaccine or adequate supplies of an antiviral

假如禽流感在未来3年内发生

to combat bird flu if it occurs in the next three years.

我们是没有疫苗或足够的抗病毒药物来与之进行搏斗的

WHO stages the progress of a pandemic.

世界卫生组织在记录着病毒的发展情况

We are now at stage three on the pandemic alert stage,

我们现在是处于病毒警戒的第3级

with just a little bit of human-to-human transmission,

有一点点的人传人现象

but no human-to-human-to-human sustained transmission.

但还没有出现连续性的传染

The moment WHO says we've moved to category four --

当世卫说，我们到达第4警戒级别的时候

this will not be like Katrina.

我们看到的将会是比卡特里那风灾后更悲惨的世界。因为整个世界都将停滞下来

The world as we know it will stop.

There'll be no airplanes flying.

没有任何的飞机敢起飞

Would you get in an airplane with 250 people you didn't know,

试想一下，假如一架飞机上的250名乘客里

coughing and sneezing,

有人在感冒咳嗽，你知道他们有可能把病传染给你

when you knew that some of them might carry a disease that could kill you,

并且这个病可以引致死亡，你也找不到药来医这种病

for which you had no antivirals or vaccine?

你还敢搭这飞机吗？

I did a study of the top epidemiologists in the world in October.

10月的时候，我对世界上最顶尖的流行病学家进行了一次调查

I asked them -- these are all fluologists and specialists in influenza --

我问他们——他们都是流感方面的专家

and I asked them the questions you'd like to ask them:

我提出的问题跟你们希望提的问题一样

What do you think the likelihood is that there'll be a pandemic?

你预言流感再次爆发的几率有多大？

If it happens, how bad do you think it will be?

假如真的发生，你认为最坏会发生怎样的结果？

Fifteen percent said they thought there'd be a pandemic within three years.

有15%的人说，未来3年内会发生

But much worse than that,

而更糟糕的是

90 percent said they thought there'd be a pandemic

他们当中有90%的人认为我们的子辈和孙辈长大后

within your children or your grandchildren's lifetime.

必将会发生流感爆发

And they thought that if there was a pandemic,

假如真的出现

a billion people would get sick.

将会有10亿人患病

As many as 165 million people would die.

并且将有1.65亿的人因此而死亡

There would be a global recession and depression

全球经济也将走向萧条和衰退

as our just-in-time inventory system

人类临危而应对的那种体系将倒台

and the tight rubber band of globalization broke,

整个全球化的框架将崩溃

and the cost to our economy of one to three trillion dollars

并且会给我们带来3万亿美元的经济损失

would be far worse for everyone than merely 100 million people dying,

不单是有1亿人因此而死，还有

很多人会因此而失去工作

because so many more people would lose their job

and their healthcare benefits,

他们的医疗保障也会丧失

that the consequences are almost unthinkable.

整个后果简直是不堪设想

And it's getting worse, because travel is getting so much better.

并且随着交通变得越来越便利，情况变得越来越糟糕

Let me show you a simulation of what a pandemic looks like.

让 我给大家演示一下，发生大流感是怎样子的

So we know what we're talking about.

我们讲的就是流感

Let's assume, for example, that the first case occurs in South Asia.

我们假设第一个案例出现在南亚

It initially goes quite slowly.

一开始时是悄无声息的

You get two or three discrete locations.

逐渐在其他一两个地方也发生了感染

Then there'll be secondary outbreaks, and the disease will spread

之后会有二级感染，病毒也会

from country to country so fast that you won't know what hit you.

从一个国家传到另一个国家，你甚至不知道什么病毒将会光临你身上

Within three weeks it will be everywhere in the world.

三周之后，病毒就传遍了全世界

Now, if we had an "undo" button, and we could go back and isolate it

假如我们可以返回，并且在这个病毒一出现的时候就抓到它

and grab it when it first started -- if we could find it early,

假如我们可以很轻松的发现这个病毒

and we had early detection and early response,

并且早发现早反应

and we could put each one of those viruses in jail --

我们就能将这些病毒放到“监狱”了

that's the only way to deal with something like a pandemic.

这是我们应对大流感的唯一办法

And let me show you why that is.

接着就解释一下

We have a joke.

我们圈内有个笑话。这是病毒传播的一个图

This is an epidemic curve, and everyone in medicine,

I think, ultimately gets to know what it is.

我想医疗药品行业的应当会知道

But the joke is,

这个笑话是说，流行病学家喜欢

an epidemiologist likes to arrive at an epidemic right here

and ride to glory on the downhill curve.

一头栽到这里，而后走向另一侧的荣誉

(Laughter)

But you don't get to do that usually.

但是通常都做不到

You usually arrive right about here.

你通常只能到达这里

What we really want is to arrive right here, so we can stop the epidemic.

但我们所希望的是到达这里，这样我们才能够阻止流行病的扩散

But you can't always do that.

但不能每次都做到，但是有 一个组织

But there's an organization that has been able to find a way

他们却做到了在每一次有新个案出现的时候都知道这些个案

to learn when the first cases occur,

and that is called GPHIN;

它就是GPHIN

it's the Global Public Health Information Network.

全称是“全球公共健康信息网”

And that simulation that I showed you

刚才给大家看到的这个模拟图你会以为是禽流感

that you thought was bird flu -- that was SARS.

And SARS is the pandemic that did not occur.

事实上那是非典。非典就是一个没有真正在全球范围内广泛传播的流行病

And it didn't occur

因为GPHIN发现了这个后来演变为非典的病毒

because GPHIN found the pandemic-to-be of SARS

它比世卫发现这一病毒还要早3个月

three months before WHO actually announced it, and because of that,

正是因为如此，我们才能阻止非典的蔓延

we were able to stop the SARS pandemic.

And I think we owe a great debt of gratitude

我想我们要感谢GPHIN以及Ron St. John所做出的努力

to GPHIN and to Ron St. John,

who I hope is in the audience some place -- over there --

我想他就在我们中间——就在那里

who's the founder of GPHIN.

他是GPHIN的创始人

(Applause)

（掌声）

Hello, Ron!

Ron, 你好！

(Applause)

（掌声）

And TED has flown Ron here from Ottawa, where GPHIN is located,

TED让Ron从渥太华飞到这里来了，GPHIN总部就在那边

because not only did GPHIN find SARS early,

这个机构不单最早发现了非典

but you may have seen last week

伊朗上周说他们国内出现了禽流感

that Iran announced that they had bird flu in Iran,

but GPHIN found the bird flu in Iran not February 14 --

GPHIN则早在去年的9月份就已经发现了那里出现禽流感个案

but last September.

We need an early-warning system

我们需要一个早期预警系统

to protect us against the things that are humanity's worst nightmare.

只有这样，我们才能避免走向人类最可怕的梦魇

And so my TED wish is based on the common denominator

所以我的TED愿望正是基于以上的这些经历提出的

of these experiences.

Smallpox -- early detection, early response.

对于天花，我们要早发现，早反应

Blindness, polio -- early detection, early response.

对于失明、小儿麻痹症，同样是早发现早反应

Pandemic bird flu -- early detection, early response.

对于禽流感，同样，早发现早反应。道理就是这样一句话

It is a litany.

It is so obvious that our only way of dealing with these new diseases

我们应对这些新型疾病的唯一手段

is to find them early and to kill them before they spread.

就是及早发现，并且在其蔓延开来之前将其灭绝

So, my TED wish is for you to help build a global system --

所以我的TED愿望就是建立一个全球的监控体系

an early-warning system --

早期预警系统

to protect us against humanity's worst nightmares.

来保护人类免遭这些传染病的侵袭

And what I thought I would call it is "Early Detection,"

我想，可以称之为早期监控

But it should really be called ...

但它更应当被称作“全面早期监控”（TED）

"Total Early Detection." [TED]

(Laughter)

（笑声）

What?

（掌声）

(Applause)

What?

(Applause)

But in all seriousness,

我是认真的——

because this idea is birthed in TED,

因为这个想法是在TED诞生的

I would like it to be a legacy of TED, and I'd like to call it

我希望它可以成为TED的一个遗产

the "International System for Total Early Disease Detection."

所以我希望将其命名为“国际早期传染病全面监控系统”

[INSTEDD]

And INSTEDD then becomes our mantra.

于是INSTEDD成为了我们的口头禅

So instead of a hidden pandemic of bird flu,

不是等待一个潜伏的禽流感

we find it and immediately contain it.

而是及早发现并马上控制它

Instead of a novel virus caused by bio-terror or bio-error,

不是坐视生物恐怖行为或生物实验失误

or shift or drift, we find it and we contain it.

我们是发现它并控制它

Instead of industrial accidents like oil spills

不是坐视类似工业意外或类似Bhopal那样的生态灾难

or the catastrophe in Bhopal,

we find them, and we respond to them.

我们是发现它们，并且马上给予反应

Instead of famine, hidden until it is too late,

不是看着饥荒坐视不管，我们发现它并采取反应

we detect it, and we respond.

And instead of a system which is owned by a government,

不是建立一个系统

让它由政府控制，并且存放于政府的某个角落

and hidden in the bowels of government,

let's build an early detection system

让我们建立一个早期预警监控系统

that's freely available to anyone in the world in their own language.

使得全世界人都能使用，并且可以使用他们自己的语言版本

Let's make it transparent, non-governmental,

让我们把它建成一个透明的、非政府控制的系统

not owned by any single country or company,

它不会属于某个国家或公司

housed in a neutral country, with redundant backup

并且会在一个中立国家被托管

in a different time zone and a different continent.

在不同时区以及不同的大陆上也有足够的备份

And let's build it on GPHIN.

让我们就在GPHIN的基础上建立这个系统，让我们从GPHIN开始

Let's start with GPHIN.

Let's increase the websites that they crawl

让我们把GPHIN所抓取的网站数量从2万提升到2000万

from 20,000 to 20 million.

Let's increase the languages they crawl

让我们扩充其抓取源的语言数量，增加到70或更多

from seven to 70, or more.

Let's build in outbound confirmation messages,

让我们建立一个允许市民发布信息的平台

using text messages or SMS or instant messaging

使得人们可以用手机短信来告知我们最新疫情

to find out from people who are within 100 meters

当谣言传出时，让人们有办法了解到离自身方圆100米内的市民的动态

of the rumor that you hear,

if it is, in fact, valid.

假如谣言会演变为真相的话

And let's add satellite confirmation.

让我们加上卫星确认机制

And we'll add Gapminder's amazing graphics to the front end.

我们还可以把Gapminder的精彩图像放到这一系统的界面上

And we'll grow it as a moral force in the world,

我们可以将此作为一种道德行动去推进

finding out those terrible things

最快的去发现那些糟糕的事情

before anybody else knows about them,

and sending our response to them,

并且作出反应

so that next year, instead of us meeting here,

我们都这样做的话，下一年我们再次在此相聚之时

lamenting how many terrible things there are in the world,

我们不再抱怨 世界发生了多少糟糕的事情

we will have pulled together,

我们将有办法通过这些手段以及动员

used the unique skills and the magic of this community,

这一社区的力量

and be proud that we have done everything we can to stop pandemics,

我们可以骄傲的宣布，我们尽了我们之所能去阻止传染病的发生

other catastrophes, and change the world, beginning right now.

我们避免了许多灾难的发生，我们从此刻开始就在改变世界

(掌声)

(Applause)

Chris Anderson: An amazing presentation.

安德森：这是十分精彩的演讲

First of all, just so everyone understands:

首先，为了让大家都明白，你是说

you're saying that by creating web crawlers,

通过网站信息的抓取，可以发现一些潜在的规律和模式

looking on the Internet for patterns,

they can detect something suspicious

并且可以赶在世卫之前发现这些疾病

before WHO, before anyone else can see it?

这是真的吗？

Give an example of how that could possibly be true.

你能解释一下吗？比方说举一个例子

好，首先，你对侵犯版权不会感到十分愤怒吧？

Larry Brilliant: You're not mad about the copyright violation?

不，我喜欢

CA: No. I love it.

(Laughter)

LB: Well, as Ron St. John --

Ron St. John所做的就是这个

I hope you'll go and meet him in the dinner afterwards and talk to him.

等下你可以在晚餐的时候见到他跟他聊几句

When he started GPHIN --

他于1997年创立了GPHIN，那一年刚好发生禽流感

In 1997, there was an outbreak of bird flu -- H5N1.

It was in Hong Kong.

是H5N1，地点是香港

And a remarkable doctor in Hong Kong responded immediately,

香港有位很英明的医生马上勒令宰杀150万只鸡和其他家禽

by slaughtering 1.5 million chickens and birds,

and they stopped that outbreak in its tracks.

他们通过一些传染途径发现了禽流感的发生

Immediate detection, immediate response.

那就是马上发现马上行动

Then a number of years went by,

之后又过了几年

and there were a lot of rumors about bird flu.

又传出关于禽流感的谣言

Ron and his team in Ottawa began to crawl the web --

Ron和他的同事就在渥太华开始抓取相关网站信息

only crawling 20,000 different websites, mostly periodicals --

那时候只抓取了2万个网站，基本是一些期刊

and they read about and heard about a concern,

他们读到了不少关于鸡的报道以及人们的担忧

of a lot of children who had high fever and symptoms of bird flu.

很多人都发高烧，并且有禽流感的症状

They reported this to WHO.

于是他们向世卫报告了这一情况，世卫还过了一段时间才作出反应

WHO took a little while taking action,

because WHO will only receive a report from a government,

因为世卫通常只接受政府提交的报告

because it's the United Nations.

因为它是联合国的一个机构

But they were able to point to WHO and let them know

但是GPHIN却告诉世卫说

that there was this surprising and unexplained cluster of illnesses

出现了这样一例可疑的

that looked like bird flu.

并且难以解释的类似禽流感的病毒

That turned out to be SARS.

最后人们发现那就是非典

That's how the world found out about SARS.

这就是我们发现非典病毒的故事

And because of that, we were able to stop SARS.

正是因为早发现，我们才能控制非典

Now, what's really important is that, before there was GPHIN,

更重要的是，在GPHIN出现以前

100 percent of all the world's reports of bad things --

世界100%的报告都是关于坏消息的

whether you're talking about famine

不管是关于饥荒或禽流感

or you're talking about bird flu or you're talking about Ebola --

或伊博拉病毒

100 percent of all those reports came from nations.

所有这些由政府提交的报告都是关于坏事情的

The moment these guys in Ottawa --

之后我们看到了这个来自渥太华的机构，他们只有每年80万美元的经费

on a budget of 800,000 dollars a year -- got cracking,

却提交了75%的报告

75 percent of all the reports in the world came from GPHIN,

25 percent of all the reports in the world

其他180个国家政府加起来

came from all the other 180 nations.

只占25%

Now, here's what's really interesting:

最为有趣的是

after they'd been working for a couple years,

他们做这个事情几年后

what do you think happened to those nations?

你说政府会怎么想？

They felt pretty stupid.

So they started sending in their reports early.

他们感到自己这样做不行，就很早提交报告

And now, their reporting percentage is down to 50 percent,

现在他们的报告比例下降到了50%

because other nations have started to report.

因为其他国家也可以提交报告

So, can you find diseases early by crawling the web?

所以你问我们能够通过抓取网站来知道发生了什么疾病吗？

Of course you can.

那是当然的。我们能够做得比GPHIN更早吗？

Can you find it even earlier than GPHIN does now?

Of course you can.

You saw that they found SARS using their Chinese web crawler

当然也是可能的

他们发现非典是抓取中文网络内容，花了6周时间

a full six weeks before they found it using their English web crawler.

之后才在英文网站上见到相关报道

Well, they're only crawling in seven languages.

他们现在只抓取7种语言

These bad viruses really don't have any intention

但是这些病毒是不会倾向于首先

of showing up first in English or Spanish or French.

在英语或法语或西班牙语国家出现的

(Laughter)

（笑声）

所以说，我希望可以在GPHIN的基础上

So yes, I want to take GPHIN, I want to build on it.

I want to add all the languages of the world that we possibly can.

加入更多的语言

I want to make this open to everybody,

使得整个系统变得更加开放

so that the health officer in Nairobi or in Patna, Bihar

让内罗毕或Patna或Bihar的医生

will have as much access to it as the folks in Ottawa or in CDC.

也能跟西方的医生一样，获取到重要的信息

And I want to make it part of our culture

我希望这会成为一个社区

that there is a community of people who are watching out

这样一群人，他们在密切注视着人类梦魇的出现

for the worst nightmares of humanity,

and that it's accessible to everyone.

并且随时准备好告诉世人