请双击下面的英文字幕来播放视频。
翻译人员: Li Chen
校对人员: Vivian Lee
00:18
So how would you run a whole country without oil?
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怎么让一个国家在没有用石油的情况下运转?
00:22
That's the question that sort of hit me
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那个问题突然浮现在我的脑海
00:24
in the middle of a Davos afternoon about four years ago.
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四年以前在Davos的一个下午。
00:27
It never left my brain.
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我永远不会忘记它。
00:29
And I started playing with it more like a puzzle.
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我越想越多,就像一个游戏。
00:32
The original thought I had: this must be ethanol.
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一开始我想一定应该用乙醇。
00:34
So I went out and researched ethanol,
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所以我便开始学习研究乙醇。
00:36
and found out you need the Amazon in your backyard in every country.
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然后发现,每个国家必须得有个自己的亚马孙来支持。
00:39
About six months later I figured out it must be hydrogen,
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六个月以后,我觉得答案必定是氢气,
00:42
until some scientist told me the unfortunate truth,
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直到后来某科学家告诉我一个不幸的事实:
00:45
which is, you actually use more
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你其实用了
00:48
clean electrons than the ones you get
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比你所得到的更多干净的电子,
00:50
inside a car, if you use hydrogen.
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如果在汽车里使用氢气的话。
00:52
So that is not going to be the path to go.
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所以这并不是一个可行的办法。
00:55
And then sort of through a process of
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然后经过反反复复的思考,
00:58
wandering around, I got to the thought
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我有了这样一个想法,
01:00
that actually if you could convert an entire country to electric cars,
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如果你可以将整个国家转换到使用电力汽车,
01:03
in a way that is convenient and affordable,
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在方便和经济的前提下,
01:06
you could get to a solution.
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那你便有了解决的方法。
01:09
Now I started this from a point of view that
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我从一开始觉得
01:12
it has to be something that scales en masse.
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我们的办法只能在一个很大的范围内可行。
01:14
Not how do you build one car,
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这并不是怎么制造一辆车,
01:16
but how do you scale this so that it can become
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而是,怎么设计一个方案
01:18
something that is used by 99 percent of the population?
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可以让百分之99的人都使用这种汽车。
01:23
The thought that came to mind is that it needs to be as good
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第一个想法便是这种车必须跟现在的车
01:26
as any car that you would have today.
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一样好用。
01:28
So one, it has to be more convenient than a car.
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因此,第一:它必须比一辆汽车方便。
01:31
And two, it has be more affordable than today's cars.
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第二:它必须比现代的汽车便宜。
01:34
Affordable is not a 40,000 dollar sedan, right?
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便宜的意思不是指一辆4万美元的轿车。
01:37
Alright? That's not something that we can finance or buy today.
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对吧?那可不是我们今天可以购买的汽车。
01:40
And convenient is not something that you drive for an hour and charge for eight.
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并且,方便的意思不是说你得充电8小时却只能开1小时。
01:44
So we're bound with the laws of physics
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所以我们需要遵循物理原理
01:47
and the laws of economics.
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以及经济原理。
01:49
And so the thought that I started with was
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于是我开始问这样一个问题:
01:52
how do you do this, still within the boundary
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我们应该如何在现有的
01:55
of the science we know today --
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科学限定范围内实现这个理想,
01:57
no time for science fair, no time for playing around with things
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要知道,我们并没有科学展览以及尝试各种试验的时间
02:00
or waiting for the magic battery to show up.
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更没有等待神奇电池诞生的时间。
02:02
How do you do it within the economics that we have today?
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那我们应该怎么在现有经济条件之下实现这个目标?
02:04
How do you do it from the power of the consumer up?
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我们应该怎么从消费者动力处着手?
02:06
And not from the power of an edict down.
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而不是从硬性法令限制处着手。
02:09
On a random visit to Tesla on some afternoon,
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在某个去Tesla参观的下午,
02:12
I actually found out that the answer comes
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我突然意识到这些问题的答案来自
02:14
from separating between the car ownership
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汽车拥有权以及
02:17
and the battery ownership.
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电池拥有权的分离。
02:19
In a sense if you want to think about it this is the classic
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在某种程度上,你会觉得这是经典的
02:22
"batteries not included."
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“不包含电池”。
02:25
Now if you separate between the two,
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如果现在你将这两者分离,
02:27
you could actually answer the need for a convenient car
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你便有了如何解决节能车需求的答案-
02:30
by creating a network,
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通过创造一个网络,
02:32
by creating a network before the cars show up.
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在汽车出现之前,创造一个网络。
02:35
The network has two components in them.
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这个网络由两个部分组成。
02:38
First component is you charge the car whenever you stop --
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第一个部分是每当你停车的时候,你让汽车充电--
02:41
ends up that cars are these strange beasts that drive
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结果这些汽车变成了只会行驶两个小时
02:44
for about two hours and park for about 22 hours.
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而要充电12个小时的机器。
02:47
If you drive a car in the morning and drive it back in the afternoon
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如果你驾驶汽车早上出门,下午回程
02:51
the ratio of charge to drive is about a minute for a minute.
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这样的话,充电与驾驶的比例是1分钟比一分钟。
02:54
And so the first thought that came to mind is,
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由此产生的第一个想法是,
02:56
everywhere we park we have electric power.
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任何我们停车的地方都会有电力。
02:59
Now it sounds crazy. But in some places around the world,
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这听上去可能有点不可思议。 但是,在世界某个角落,
03:01
like Scandinavia, you already have that.
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像北欧,这个设置已经存在。
03:04
If you park your car and didn't plug in the heater,
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如果你把车停了,不把暖气开着,
03:06
when you come back you don't have a car. It just doesn't work.
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当你回来的时候,车一定开不了。
03:09
Now that last mile,
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现在想想这最后一英里,
03:12
last foot, in a sense,
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最后一步,在某种意义上,
03:14
is the first step of the infrastructure.
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是迈向基础设施的第一步。
03:15
The second step of the infrastructure needs to take care
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基础设施的第二步便是解决
03:17
of the range extension.
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扩大范围的需要。
03:19
See we're bound by today's technology on batteries,
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我们被现有的电池技术限制,
03:22
which is about 120 miles if you want to stay within
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在适当的空间和重量限制范围之内,
03:24
reasonable space and weight limitations.
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汽车只能行驶大概120英里左右。
03:28
120 miles is a good enough range for a lot of people.
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对大部分人来说,120英里已经是一个足够的范围。
03:32
But you never want to get stuck.
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可是,没有人愿意被现有的限制束缚。
03:34
So what we added is a second element to our network,
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因此,我们为我们的网络添加了第二个成分
03:36
which is a battery swap system.
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这便是一个电池交换系统。
03:38
You drive. You take your depleted battery out.
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你驾驶。 你把已耗尽的电池取出。
03:41
A full battery comes on. And you drive on.
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换上一个全新的电池,你继续你的旅程。
03:44
You don't do it as a human being. You do it as a machine.
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这并不是体力劳动。这是全自动模式。
03:46
It looks like a car wash. You come into your car wash.
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这跟自动洗车一样。 你把车开入自动洗车系统,
03:49
And a plate comes up, holds your battery, takes it out, puts it back in, and
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一个钢板将你的电池取出,换进一个新的电池。
03:52
within two minutes you're back on the road
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两分种之内,你便可以上路,
03:54
and you can go again.
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继续你的旅程。
03:57
If you had charge spots everywhere,
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如果任何地方都有充电站,
03:59
and you had battery swap stations everywhere,
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任何地方都有电池替换系统,
04:01
how often would you do it? And it ends up
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你会多久换一次电池,充一次电? 其实这样下来
04:03
that you'd do swapping less times than you stop at a gas station.
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你换电池的频率比你加油的频率要低。
04:07
As a matter of fact, we added to the contract.
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我们甚至把这个事实加入到我们的合同里。
04:10
We said that if you stop to swap your battery more than 50 times a year
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我们规定如果你一年停车替换电池多于50次,
04:13
we start paying you money
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我们会补偿你,
04:15
because it's an inconvenience.
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因为这样停车换电池非常不方便。
04:17
Then we looked at the question of the affordability.
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然后我们审查了消费者能否负担的问题。
04:20
We looked at the question, what happens when the battery is
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当电池与汽车分离,
04:22
disconnected from the car.
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不再是车的一部分会怎么样呢。
04:24
What is the cost of that battery?
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电池究竟是花多少钱?
04:26
Everybody tells us batteries are so expensive.
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别人都告诉我们电池很贵。
04:28
What we found out, when you move from molecules to electrons,
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我们发现,当你从分子过渡到电子,
04:31
something interesting happens.
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有趣的事情便由此产生了。
04:33
We can go back to the original economics of the car and look at it again.
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我们再回到最原有的汽车经济原理,重新考量。
04:36
The battery is not the gas tank, in a sense.
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电池,在某种程度上,跟油箱不一样。
04:38
Remember in your car you have a gas tank.
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还记得你的汽车里有一个油箱。
04:40
You have the crude oil.
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你有原油。
04:42
And you have refining and delivery of that crude oil
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把原油加工,运输,
04:44
as what we call petrol or gasoline.
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便成了我们现有的汽油。
04:46
The battery in this sense, is the crude oil.
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电池,从这个角度看,就像原油。
04:50
We have a battery bay. It costs the same hundred dollars
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我们有电池海湾。 费用大概是几百美元,
04:53
as the gas tank.
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跟油箱一样。
04:55
But the crude oil is replaced with a battery.
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但是原油被电池取代。
04:57
Just it doesn't burn. It consumes itself
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电池不会燃烧。 它只会耗损自己
04:59
step after step after step.
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一步接一步。
05:01
It has 2,000 life cycles these days.
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现有电池有大概2000个寿命循环。
05:03
And so it's sort of a mini well.
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就像一个小型的油井。
05:06
We were asked in the past when we bought an electric car
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过往当我们决定买一辆电力车,
05:08
to pay for the entire well, for the life of the car.
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我们必须付那口井的全部费用。
05:10
Nobody wants to buy a mini well when they buy a car.
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买车的时候, 没有任何人想购入一口小型井。
05:13
In a sense what we've done is
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在某种程度上,我们创造了
05:15
we've created a new consumable.
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一个新的消费品。
05:17
You, today, buy gasoline miles.
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你们,今天,买汽油英里。
05:19
And we created electric miles.
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而我们却创造了电力英里。
05:22
And the price of electric miles ends up being a very interesting number.
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电力英里的价钱非常有意思。
05:26
Today 2010, in volume,
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在2010年的今天, 按数量计算,
05:28
when we come to market, it is eight cents a mile.
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我们今天进入市场,价钱是8美分一英里。
05:32
Those of you who have a hard time calculating what that means --
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那些对这个概念有点模糊的观众,
05:34
in the average consumer
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在平均消费
05:37
environment we're in in the U.S.
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环境下,在美国
05:39
20 miles per gallon that's a buck 50, a buck 60 a gallon.
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一加仑20英里大概是1.50, 1.60一加仑。
05:42
That's cheaper than today's gasoline, even in the U.S.
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这比现在的油价要便宜多了,甚至在美国。
05:46
In Europe where taxes are in place,
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在税收严谨的欧洲,
05:49
that's the equivalent to a minus 60 dollar barrel.
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这就等于-60美元一桶原油。
05:54
But e-miles follow Moore's Law.
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可是电力英里跟随摩尔定律。
05:58
They go from eight cents a mile in 2010,
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在2010年,它们从8美分一英里,
06:01
to four cents a mile in 2015,
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到2015年4美分一英里,
06:03
to two cents a mile by 2020.
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到2020年2美分一英里。
06:07
Why? Because batteries life cycle improve --
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为什么?因为电池寿命循环不断提升-
06:10
a bit of improvement on energy density, which reduces the price.
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能源密集的进步会导致价钱下调。
06:13
And these prices are actually with clean electrons.
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而且这些价钱都是在使用无污染电子的基础上产生的。
06:16
We do not use any electrons that come from coal.
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我们不会使用任何来自煤炭的电子。
06:20
So in a sense this is
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所以,在某种意义上,这是
06:22
an absolute zero-carbon, zero-fossil fuel
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一个绝对无碳,无矿物燃料,
06:25
electric mile at two cents a mile by 2020.
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的电力英里,价钱在2020将是2美分一英里。
06:29
Now even if we get to 40 miles per gallon
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就算我们在2020年之前能达到40英里一加仑
06:31
by 2020, which is our desire.
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正如我们所愿。
06:33
Imagine only 40 miles per gallon cars would be on the road.
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想像路上只有40英里一加仑的车。
06:36
That is an 80 cent gallon.
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那是80美分一加仑。
06:38
An 80 cent gallon means, if the entire Pacific
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80美分一加仑是指如果把整个太平洋
06:40
would convert to crude oil,
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变成原油,
06:42
and we'd let any oil company bring it out and refine it,
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我们让所有石油公司开发加工,
06:45
they still can't compete with two cents a mile.
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他们还是不能跟2美分英里相比。
06:49
That's a new economic factor,
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这是一个新的经济因素,
06:51
which is fascinating to most people.
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许多人对此极感兴趣。
06:53
Now this would have been a wonderful paper.
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这本来是一篇极好的文章。
06:55
That's how I solved it in my head. It was a white paper I handed out to governments.
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这便是我解决这个问题的过程。 我把这分白皮书分发给不同的政府。
06:58
And some governments told me that it's fascinating
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一部分政府告诉我这个概念很有趣,
07:00
that the younger generation actually thinks about these things.
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年轻一代会真的考虑这种方案。
07:03
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
07:04
Until I got to the
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直到我联络到
07:06
true young global leader, Shimon Peres, President of Israel,
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Shimon Peres,一个年轻的领袖,以色列总统,
07:09
and he ran a beautiful manipulation on me.
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他让我好好的操作了这个理念。
07:12
First he let me go to the prime minister of the country,
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首先他让我联络以色列首相。
07:14
who told me, if you can find the money you need for this network,
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他告诉我,如果你可以收集到足够开发这个网络的资金,
07:16
200 million dollars,
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20亿美金,
07:18
and if you can find a car company
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并且可以找到汽车制造商,
07:20
that will build that car in mass volume,
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能生产大量的那个模型的汽车,
07:22
in two million cars -- that's what we needed in Israel --
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大概2两百万辆车左右。 这便是以色列所需要的。
07:24
I'll give you country to invest the 200 million into.
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如果你可以办到这些,我将给你整个国家,让你投资那20亿美金。
07:28
Peres thought that was a great idea.
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Peres认为这是一个很好的想法。
07:31
So we went out, and we looked at all the car companies.
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因此我们调查了所有的汽车制造商。
07:35
We sent letters to all the car companies.
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我们还给他们发了信。
07:37
Three of them never showed up. One of them asked us
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在这些厂商当中,三个从来没有回复。 其中一个问我们
07:39
if we would stay with hybrids and they would give us a discount.
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能否只用双动力汽车,他们会给我们折扣。
07:42
But one of them Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault and Nissan,
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但是,其中一位,雷诺和尼桑的CEO,Carlos Ghosn,
07:45
when asked about hybrids said something very fascinating.
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当他被问到双动力汽车的时候,他给了一个很有趣的答案。
07:48
He said hybrids are like mermaids.
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他说双动力汽车就像美人鱼一样。
07:50
When you want a fish you get a woman and
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当你要看金鱼的时候,你看到女子,当
07:52
when you need a woman you get a fish.
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你要看女子的时候,你却看到金鱼。
07:54
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
07:57
And Ghosn came up and said,
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Ghosn告诉我们,
07:59
"I have the car, Mr. Peres; I will build you the cars."
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"我可以制造这种电力汽车。 Peres先生,我会为你制造这种汽车。"
08:01
And actually true to form, Renault has put a billion and a half dollars
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事实上,雷诺早已投资15亿美金
08:04
in building nine different types of cars that fit this kind of model
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在制造9种不同的电力汽车,
08:07
that will come into the market in mass volume --
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它们将大量进入市场-
08:10
mass volume being the first year, 100 thousand cars.
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第一年预计产量,10万辆。
08:13
It's the first mass-volume electric car,
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这将是第一款大量生产的电力汽车,
08:15
zero-emission electric car in the market.
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市场上第一款零排放量的电力汽车。
08:18
I was running, as Chris said,
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正如Chris所说,我当时竞任
08:22
to be the CEO of a large software company called SAP
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SAP,一个大型软件公司的CEO。
08:25
And then Peres said, "Well won't you run this project?"
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Peres问我会不会主管这个项目。
08:29
And I said, "I'm ready for CEO" And he said,
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我告诉他我已经做好了当CEO的准备。 他说,
08:31
"Oh no no no no no. You've got to explain to me,
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"不不不。 你得告诉我
08:34
what is more important than saving your country and saving the world,
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有什么比拯救你的国家和拯救世界
08:36
that you would go and do?"
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更重要的事情?"
08:38
And I had to quit and come and do this thing called A Better Place.
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我于是退出了SAP CEO的竞选,开始了这个名为“更美好的地方”的案子。
08:40
We then decided to scale it up.
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然后我们决定把这个案子扩大。
08:43
We went to other countries. As I said we went to Denmark.
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我们去了别的国家。 像我之前说的,我们去了丹麦。
08:45
And Denmark set this beautiful policy;
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丹麦把这个方案设定成了一个叫
08:47
it's called the IQ test.
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IQ测试的政策。
08:49
It's inversely proportional to taxes.
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这个方案被设置成跟税收成反比。
08:51
They put 180 percent tax on gasoline cars
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丹麦政府对所有汽油车征收百分之180的税,
08:55
and zero tax on zero-emission cars.
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不对零排放量的汽车征收任何税收。
08:57
So if you want to buy a gasoline car in Denmark, it costs you about 60,000 Euros.
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因此如果你在丹麦想购买一辆汽油汽车,价钱大概是6万欧元左右。
09:01
If you buy our car it's about 20,000 Euros.
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如果你买我们的车,价钱大概是2万欧元左右。
09:03
If you fail the IQ test they ask you to leave the country.
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如果你无法通过这个IQ测试,丹麦政府将命令你离开丹麦。
09:06
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:08
We then were sort of coined as the guys
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我们于是被称为
09:10
who run only in small islands.
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只在小岛国活动的一组。
09:12
I know most people don't think of Israel as a small island,
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我知道大部分人不认为以色列是一个小岛国家。
09:14
but Israel is an island -- it's a transportation island.
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可是以色列是一个岛国。 以色列是一个交通岛国。
09:17
If your car is driving outside Israel it's been stolen.
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如果你的车在以色列以外行驶,那你的车必定是被盗窃了。
09:20
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
09:22
If you're thinking about it in terms of islands,
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如果你把这些国家都看成是岛屿,
09:25
we decided to go to the biggest island that we could find,
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那么我们决定去我们可以找到的最大的岛国。
09:27
and that was Australia. The third country we announced was Australia.
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那便是澳大利亚。 澳大利亚是我们第三个公布的国家。
09:30
It's got three centers --
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澳大利亚有三个中心--
09:32
in Brisbane, in Melbourne, in Sydney --
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布里斯班市,墨尔本,和悉尼--
09:35
and one freeway, one electric freeway that connects them.
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再加一个高速,一个把这三个中心连起来的电子高速。
09:37
The next island
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下一个岛屿
09:39
was not too hard to find, and that was Hawaii.
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并不难找,那便是夏威夷。
09:41
We decided to come into the U.S.
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于是我们决定来到美国,
09:43
and pick the two best places --
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并选择了两个最好的地方--
09:45
the one where you didn't need any range extension.
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两个并不需要任何扩大范围的地方。
09:47
Hawaii you can drive around the island on one battery.
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在夏威夷,你可以依靠一个电池兜游整个岛。
09:49
And if you really have a long day you can switch,
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如果你真的计划一个比较长的行程日,你可以替换,
09:51
and keep on driving around the island.
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并且不断的驾驶。
09:53
The second one was the San Francisco Bay Area
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第二个地方便是三藩市湾区。
09:55
where Gavin Newsom created a beautiful policy across all the mayors.
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在所有的市长当中,Gavin Newsom精心设计了一个政策方案。
09:58
He decided that he's going to take over
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他决定要掌管整个
10:00
the state, unofficially, and then officially,
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加利福尼亚州,非正式的,然后正式的。
10:03
and then created this beautiful Region One policy.
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然后设置这个叫"1号地区"的政策。
10:07
In the San Francisco Bay Area not only do you have
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在三藩市湾区,你不但有
10:09
the highest concentration of Priuses,
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最高密度的丰田双动力车Priuses,
10:11
but you also have the perfect range extender.
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而且你有最完善的范围扩大设置。
10:13
It's called the other car.
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这个被称为另类的车。
10:15
As we stared scaling it up
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正当我们开始扩大这个方案
10:18
we looked at what is the problem to come up to the U.S.?
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我们研究了美国所面临的问题。
10:21
Why is this a big issue?
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为什么这是一个重要的问题?
10:23
And the most fascinating thing we've learned is that,
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我们所见过的最有趣的是
10:25
when you have small problems on the individual level,
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当个人有些小问题时,
10:28
like the price of gasoline to drive every morning.
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像每天的汽油价格这种事,
10:31
You don't notice it, but when the aggregate comes up
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你并不太注意。 可是当问题聚集起来,
10:33
you're dead. Alright?
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那可麻烦了。 是吧?
10:35
So the price of oil, much like
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所以油价,就像
10:38
lots of other curves that we've seen,
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我们见过的其他曲线一样,
10:40
goes along a depletion curve.
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沿着一个耗尽曲线发展。
10:42
The foundation of this curve is that we keep losing the wells that are close to the ground.
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这个曲线建立在我们逐渐失去接近地下的油井的基础上。
10:45
And we keep getting wells that are farther away from the ground.
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然后我们便不停的开发离地下越来越远的油井。
10:48
It becomes more and more and more expensive to dig them out.
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这样的油井最后变得越来越贵去开发。
10:50
You think, well it's been up, it's been down,
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你想想,油价上涨过,下调过,
10:53
its been up, it's going to keep on going up and down.
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再上涨过,而且会一直上下变动。
10:55
Here is the problem:
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问题在此:
10:57
at 147 dollars a barrel, which we were in six months ago,
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六个月前,原油价高立在147美元一桶,
11:00
the U.S. spent a ton of money to get oil.
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美国购买石油,花费不少。
11:04
Then we lost our economy and we went back down to 47 --
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然后美国经济崩溃,原油价下调到47美元一桶。
11:07
sometimes it's 40, sometimes it's 50.
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有时是40美元,有时是50美元。
11:09
Now we're running a stimulus package.
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现在我们的政府正实行一个经济刺激计划。
11:11
It's called the trillion-dollar stimulus package.
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一个所谓万亿美元的刺激计划。
11:13
We're going to revive the economy. Hopefully it happens between now and 2015,
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我们意图使经济复苏,希望2015年之前发生,
11:17
somewhere in that space.
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大概在这个时间段里。
11:19
What happens when the economy recovers?
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那当经济复苏时,社会将变成什么样?
11:22
By 2015 we would have had at least 250 million new cars
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在2015年前,我们至少将有2.5亿辆新车
11:27
even at the pace we're going at right now.
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就算我们按现有的汽车增加率计算。
11:29
That's another 30 percent demand on oil.
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那意味着原油需求将上涨百分之30。
11:31
That is another 25 million barrels a day.
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那时还要增加两千五百万桶的原油。
11:34
That's all the U.S. usage today.
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即美国现在的原油消耗量。
11:38
In other words at some point when we've recovered we go up to the peak.
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这就是说当我们经济复苏时,我们将到达原油需求的高峰点。
11:41
And then we do the OPEC stimulus package
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然后我们来实行OPEC刺激计划,
11:43
also known as 200 dollars a barrel.
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也被称为200美元一桶原油。
11:45
We take our money and we give it away.
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我们把我们的资金都用在原油上面。
11:47
You know what happens at that point?
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你知道到了那个程度,什么会发生吗?
11:49
We go back down. It's going to go up and down.
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我们的经济会下调。 它会一直不断上下浮动。
11:51
And the downs are going to be much longer
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并且,下调的时间会越来越长,
11:53
and the ups are going to be much shorter.
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上升的时间会越来越短。
11:55
And that's the difference between problems that are additive,
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这个就是可添加性问题,
11:58
like CO2, which we go slowly up and then we tip,
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像二氧化碳问题,慢慢上升然后达到最高峰,
12:01
and problems that are depletive,
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跟耗尽性问题,
12:03
in which we lose what we have,
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我们失去我们所拥有的某种资源,
12:05
which oscillate, and they oscillate until
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这种资源一直变动,直到
12:07
we lose everything we've got.
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我们完全用尽这种资源。
12:11
Now we actually looked at what the answer would be.
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其实我们查看了这个问题的答案。
12:13
Right? Remember in the campaign: one million
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对吗?还记得那个广告宣传,一百万
12:15
hybrid cars by 2015.
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混合动力车,到2015年
12:19
That is 0.5 percent of the U.S. oil consumption.
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那可是百分之0.5的美国耗油量。
12:23
That is oh point oh well percent of the rest of the world.
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那只是世界耗油量微不足道的一部分。
12:28
That won't do much difference.
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那样做没有什么意义。
12:30
We looked at an MIT study:
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我们查看了一个麻省理工大学的研究:
12:32
ten million electric cars on the global roads.
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一千万电力汽车投放国际市场。
12:35
Ten million out of 500 million we will add between now and then.
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这是我们计划投入的5亿辆电力汽车中的一千万。
12:39
That is the most pessimistic number you can have.
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那可是你所可以拥有的最保守的数量。
12:41
It's also the most optimistic number
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同时也是最乐观的一个数字,
12:43
because it means we will scale this industry
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因为这意味这我们将扩大这个行业
12:46
from 100 thousand cars is 2011,
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从2011年的10万辆,
12:48
to 10 million cars by 2016 --
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到2016年的1千万辆。
12:52
100 x growth in less than five years.
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这意味着不到5年内10倍的增长。
12:57
You have to remember that the world today is bringing in so many cars.
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同时你必须记得现时的世界每天都在增加许多的汽车。
13:00
We have 10 million cars by region.
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按区域计算,我们有一千万辆汽车。
13:03
That's an enormous amount of cars.
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那可是一个不可小看的数字。
13:05
China is adding those cars --
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中国正飞速的增加汽车数量--
13:07
India, Russia, Brazil.
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印度,俄罗斯,巴西,
13:09
We have all these regions.
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这些地区都如此。
13:11
Europe has solved it. They just put a tax on gasoline.
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欧洲已经把这个问题解决。 他们在汽油上加税。
13:13
They'll be the first in line to get off
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他们将会第一个摆脱对石油的依赖,
13:15
because their prices are high.
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因为价钱将高得无法让人承受。
13:17
China solves it by an edict. At some point they'll just declare
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中国将会解决用硬性法规这个问题。 他们将会禁止
13:19
that no gasoline car will come into a city, and that will be it.
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任何汽油汽车进入城市。 那会是汽油汽车的最终下场。
13:23
The Indians don't even understand why we think of it as a problem
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印度人民根本不了解为什么这是一个问题,
13:26
because most people in India fill two or three gallons every time.
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因为大部分人在印度每次只加2到3加仑汽油。
13:28
For them to get a battery that goes 120 miles
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对于他们来说,一个可以行走120英里的电池
13:31
is an extension on range, not a reduction in range.
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简直是范围的无限扩大,不是范围的缩小。
13:35
We're the only ones who don't have the price set right.
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我们是唯一一个没有将油价设置好的国家。
13:38
We don't have the industry set right.
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我们也没有把各行业设置好。
13:40
We don't have any incentive to go and resolve it
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我们没有任何刺激去解决这个问题
13:42
across the U.S.
309
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这个现象横跨全美国。
13:44
Now where is the car industry on that?
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汽车工业在这个问题上的位置究竟在哪?
13:46
Very interesting. The car industry has been focused just on themselves.
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这个非常有意思。 汽车工业一直都只专注在它们自己身上。
13:49
They basically looked at it and said, "Car 1.0
312
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基本上他们查看了形势然后决定,“汽车1.0
13:51
we'll solve everything within the car itself."
313
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我们将在汽车身上解决所有问题。“
13:55
No infrastructure, no problem.
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没有基本设施,没有问题。
13:58
We forgot about the entire chain around us.
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我们忘记了这些围绕着我们的产业链。
14:01
All this stuff that happens around.
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这些在我们身边发生的事情。
14:03
We are looking at the emergence of a car 2.0 --
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我们正关注汽车2.0的发展--
14:06
a whole new market, a whole new business model.
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一个全新的市场,一个全新的商业模式。
14:09
The business model in which the money that is actually coming in,
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这个商业模式带来新的收益
14:12
to drive the car --
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驾驶汽车会促使,
14:14
the minutes, the miles if you want,
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时间,英里如果那比较便于理解,
14:16
that you are all familiar with --
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这些你熟悉的概念,
14:18
subsidize the price of the car,
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用来补助汽车的价钱,
14:21
just like cellphones. You'll pay for the miles.
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就像手机一样。你只负责驾驶距离。
14:23
And some of it will go back to the car maker.
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这些钱,一部分将会回到汽车制造商身上。
14:25
Some of it will go back to your own pocket.
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一部分将会回到你自己的口袋里。
14:28
But our cars are actually going to be cheaper than gasoline cars.
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我们的汽车将比汽油汽车便宜。
14:31
You're looking at a world where cars are matched with windmills.
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这将是一个汽车与风车磨坊相组合的世界。
14:35
In Denmark, we will drive all the cars in Denmark
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在丹麦,我们将依赖
14:38
from windmills, not from oil.
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风力而不是汽油,来驾驶所有的汽车。
14:41
In Israel, we've asked to put a solar farm
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在以色列,我们将在
14:45
in the south of Israel.
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南部建立一个太阳能磨坊。
14:47
And people said, "Oh that's a very very large space that you're asking for."
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人们说,"你们要的可是一个巨大的空间。”
14:50
And we said, "What if we had proven that in the same space
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我们回答,“如果我们证明在这个空间里
14:52
we found oil for the country for the next hundred years?"
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我们可以为这个国家找到足够一百年的石油?”
14:55
And they said, "We tried. There isn't any."
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他们说,“我们已经尝试过了。那里没有石油。”
14:57
We said, "No no, but what if we prove it?"
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我们说,"不,不,我们能证明,怎么样?“
14:59
And they said, "Well you can dig." And we decided to dig up,
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然后他们说,”那你就挖吧。" 于是我们开始往上挖,
15:01
instead of digging down.
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并不是往下钻。
15:03
These are perfect matches to one another.
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这些是完全符合双方的资源。
15:06
Now all you need is about 10 percent
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现在你只需要百分之10
15:09
of the electricity generated.
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的所得电力。
15:11
Think of it as a project that spans over about 10 years.
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想像这个是持续10年的项目。
15:14
That's one percent a year.
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那便是平均每年百分之1。
15:16
Now when we're looking at solving big problems,
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现在我们正要解决一些主要的问题,
15:19
we need to start thinking in two numbers.
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我们必须开始考虑两个数字。
15:21
And those are not 20 percent by 2020.
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它们并不是在2010年达到百分之20。
15:23
The two numbers are zero -- as in zero footprint or zero oil --
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这两个数字是零,零排放量和零耗油量,
15:28
and scale it infinity.
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并且把它们的规模无穷的扩大。
15:31
And when we go to COP15 at the end of this year
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当我们去今年点底的COP15
15:33
we can't stop thinking of padding CO2.
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我们不停的在想如何衬垫二氧化碳。
15:35
We have to start thinking about giving kickers to countries
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我们得开始设想如何鼓励那些愿意
15:37
that are willing to go to this kind of scale.
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采用这个方案的国家。
15:40
One car emits four tons.
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一辆汽车排放4顿二氧化碳。
15:42
And actually 700 and change million cars today
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现时的7亿辆汽车
15:44
emit 2.8 billion tons of CO2.
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排放28亿顿二氧化碳。
15:47
That's, in the additive, about 25 percent of our problem.
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那只是我们所有问题的百分之25。
15:50
Cars and trucks add up to about 25 percent of the world's CO2 emissions.
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汽车跟卡车二氧化碳排放量占世界二氧化碳排放量的百分之25。
15:55
We have to come and attack this problem
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我们得好好的解决这个问题
15:57
with a focus, with an effort that actually says,
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设定一个坚定的目标,
15:59
we're going to go to zero before the world ends.
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用我们的毅力说在世界末日之前,我们的汽车将不再排放任何二氧化碳。
16:02
I actually shared that with some legislators here in the U.S.
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事实上,我与部分美国参议院分享了这个想法。
16:06
I shared it with a gentleman called Bobby Kennedy Jr., who is one of my idols.
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我跟Bobby Kennedy Junior分享了这个想法。 他可是我其中的一位偶像。
16:11
I told him one of the reasons that
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我告诉他其中一个重要的原因
16:13
his uncle was remembered
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他的叔叔被人们记得
16:15
is because he said we're going to send a man to the moon,
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因为他说我们要把人类送上月球
16:18
and we'll do it by the end of the decade.
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我们将在这十年内达到这个目标。
16:20
We didn't say we're going to send a man 20 percent to the moon.
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我们并不是说我们有百分之20的把握把人送到月球。
16:23
And there will be about a 20 percent chance we'll recover him.
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尽管我们只有大概百分之20的把握能把这个人送回来。
16:26
(Laughter)
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(笑声)
16:29
He actually shared with me another story, which is from about 200 years ago.
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他于是给我讲了一个200年前的故事。
16:33
200 years ago, in Parliament, in Great Britain,
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200年前,在英国议会
16:36
there was a long argument
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存在着一个悠久的争议,
16:38
over economy versus morality.
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一个关于经济与道德的争议。
16:40
25 percent -- just like 25 percent emissions today comes from cars --
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百分之25,像我们今天所说的百分之25的汽车排放量,
16:44
25 percent of their energy
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百分之25的能源,
16:47
for the entire industrial world in the U.K.
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支持英国整个工业世界
16:50
came from a source of energy that was immoral:
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来自一个非常不道德的渠道:
16:53
human slaves.
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奴隶。
16:55
And there was an argument. Should we stop using slaves?
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于是便有了如此的一个争议。 我们应该停止使用奴隶吗?
16:58
And what would it do to our economy?
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如果我们停止使用奴隶,那我们的经济将变成怎样?
17:00
And people said, "Well we need to take time to do it.
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而且人们说,“那可得时间啊。”
17:02
Let's not do it immediately. Maybe we free the kids
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暂时先不要急。我们可以先把奴隶的孩子释放
17:04
and keep the slaves.
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把奴隶留着。
17:07
And after a month of arguments they decided to stop slavery,
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经过一个月的争论后,他们决定停止奴隶制。
17:10
and the industrial revolution started within less than one year.
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工业革命在不到一个月内随之诞生。
17:14
And the U.K. had 100 years of economic growth.
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英国因此获得100年的经济发展。
17:18
We have to make the right moral decision.
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我们得做出正确的道德选择。
17:21
We have to make it immediately.
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我们必须马上行动。
17:24
We need to have presidential leadership
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我们需要总统的领导
17:26
just like we had in Israel that said we will end oil.
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就像我们在以色列宣誓我们将不再使用石油。
17:30
And we need to do it not within 20 years or 50 years,
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我们需要在今天行动,不是在20年到50年之内,
17:34
but within this presidential term
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而是在这个总统任期内,
17:37
because if we don't, we will lose our economy,
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因为如果我们不采取行动,我们将失去我们的经济,
17:41
right after we'd lost our morality.
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接着我们将失去我们的道德体系。
17:43
Thank you all very much.
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谢谢大家!
17:45
(Applause)
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(掌声)
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