Shai Agassi: A new ecosystem for electric cars

127,238 views ・ 2009-04-13

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:18
So how would you run a whole country without oil?
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That's the question that sort of hit me
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in the middle of a Davos afternoon about four years ago.
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It never left my brain.
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And I started playing with it more like a puzzle.
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The original thought I had: this must be ethanol.
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So I went out and researched ethanol,
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and found out you need the Amazon in your backyard in every country.
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About six months later I figured out it must be hydrogen,
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until some scientist told me the unfortunate truth,
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which is, you actually use more
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clean electrons than the ones you get
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inside a car, if you use hydrogen.
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So that is not going to be the path to go.
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And then sort of through a process of
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wandering around, I got to the thought
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that actually if you could convert an entire country to electric cars,
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in a way that is convenient and affordable,
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you could get to a solution.
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Now I started this from a point of view that
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it has to be something that scales en masse.
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Not how do you build one car,
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but how do you scale this so that it can become
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something that is used by 99 percent of the population?
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The thought that came to mind is that it needs to be as good
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as any car that you would have today.
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So one, it has to be more convenient than a car.
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And two, it has be more affordable than today's cars.
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Affordable is not a 40,000 dollar sedan, right?
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Alright? That's not something that we can finance or buy today.
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And convenient is not something that you drive for an hour and charge for eight.
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So we're bound with the laws of physics
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and the laws of economics.
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And so the thought that I started with was
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how do you do this, still within the boundary
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of the science we know today --
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no time for science fair, no time for playing around with things
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or waiting for the magic battery to show up.
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How do you do it within the economics that we have today?
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How do you do it from the power of the consumer up?
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And not from the power of an edict down.
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On a random visit to Tesla on some afternoon,
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I actually found out that the answer comes
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from separating between the car ownership
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and the battery ownership.
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In a sense if you want to think about it this is the classic
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"batteries not included."
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Now if you separate between the two,
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you could actually answer the need for a convenient car
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by creating a network,
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by creating a network before the cars show up.
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The network has two components in them.
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First component is you charge the car whenever you stop --
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ends up that cars are these strange beasts that drive
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for about two hours and park for about 22 hours.
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If you drive a car in the morning and drive it back in the afternoon
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the ratio of charge to drive is about a minute for a minute.
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And so the first thought that came to mind is,
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everywhere we park we have electric power.
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Now it sounds crazy. But in some places around the world,
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like Scandinavia, you already have that.
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If you park your car and didn't plug in the heater,
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when you come back you don't have a car. It just doesn't work.
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Now that last mile,
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last foot, in a sense,
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is the first step of the infrastructure.
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The second step of the infrastructure needs to take care
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of the range extension.
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See we're bound by today's technology on batteries,
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which is about 120 miles if you want to stay within
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reasonable space and weight limitations.
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120 miles is a good enough range for a lot of people.
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But you never want to get stuck.
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So what we added is a second element to our network,
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which is a battery swap system.
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You drive. You take your depleted battery out.
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A full battery comes on. And you drive on.
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You don't do it as a human being. You do it as a machine.
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It looks like a car wash. You come into your car wash.
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And a plate comes up, holds your battery, takes it out, puts it back in, and
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within two minutes you're back on the road
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and you can go again.
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If you had charge spots everywhere,
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and you had battery swap stations everywhere,
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how often would you do it? And it ends up
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that you'd do swapping less times than you stop at a gas station.
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As a matter of fact, we added to the contract.
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We said that if you stop to swap your battery more than 50 times a year
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we start paying you money
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because it's an inconvenience.
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Then we looked at the question of the affordability.
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We looked at the question, what happens when the battery is
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disconnected from the car.
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What is the cost of that battery?
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Everybody tells us batteries are so expensive.
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What we found out, when you move from molecules to electrons,
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something interesting happens.
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We can go back to the original economics of the car and look at it again.
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The battery is not the gas tank, in a sense.
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Remember in your car you have a gas tank.
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You have the crude oil.
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And you have refining and delivery of that crude oil
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as what we call petrol or gasoline.
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The battery in this sense, is the crude oil.
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We have a battery bay. It costs the same hundred dollars
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as the gas tank.
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But the crude oil is replaced with a battery.
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Just it doesn't burn. It consumes itself
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step after step after step.
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It has 2,000 life cycles these days.
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And so it's sort of a mini well.
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We were asked in the past when we bought an electric car
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to pay for the entire well, for the life of the car.
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Nobody wants to buy a mini well when they buy a car.
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In a sense what we've done is
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we've created a new consumable.
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You, today, buy gasoline miles.
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And we created electric miles.
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And the price of electric miles ends up being a very interesting number.
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Today 2010, in volume,
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when we come to market, it is eight cents a mile.
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Those of you who have a hard time calculating what that means --
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in the average consumer
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environment we're in in the U.S.
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20 miles per gallon that's a buck 50, a buck 60 a gallon.
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That's cheaper than today's gasoline, even in the U.S.
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In Europe where taxes are in place,
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that's the equivalent to a minus 60 dollar barrel.
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But e-miles follow Moore's Law.
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They go from eight cents a mile in 2010,
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to four cents a mile in 2015,
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to two cents a mile by 2020.
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Why? Because batteries life cycle improve --
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a bit of improvement on energy density, which reduces the price.
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And these prices are actually with clean electrons.
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We do not use any electrons that come from coal.
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So in a sense this is
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an absolute zero-carbon, zero-fossil fuel
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electric mile at two cents a mile by 2020.
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Now even if we get to 40 miles per gallon
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by 2020, which is our desire.
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Imagine only 40 miles per gallon cars would be on the road.
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That is an 80 cent gallon.
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An 80 cent gallon means, if the entire Pacific
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would convert to crude oil,
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and we'd let any oil company bring it out and refine it,
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they still can't compete with two cents a mile.
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That's a new economic factor,
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which is fascinating to most people.
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Now this would have been a wonderful paper.
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That's how I solved it in my head. It was a white paper I handed out to governments.
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And some governments told me that it's fascinating
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that the younger generation actually thinks about these things.
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(Laughter)
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Until I got to the
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true young global leader, Shimon Peres, President of Israel,
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and he ran a beautiful manipulation on me.
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First he let me go to the prime minister of the country,
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who told me, if you can find the money you need for this network,
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200 million dollars,
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and if you can find a car company
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that will build that car in mass volume,
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in two million cars -- that's what we needed in Israel --
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I'll give you country to invest the 200 million into.
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Peres thought that was a great idea.
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So we went out, and we looked at all the car companies.
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We sent letters to all the car companies.
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Three of them never showed up. One of them asked us
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if we would stay with hybrids and they would give us a discount.
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But one of them Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault and Nissan,
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when asked about hybrids said something very fascinating.
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He said hybrids are like mermaids.
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When you want a fish you get a woman and
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when you need a woman you get a fish.
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(Laughter)
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And Ghosn came up and said,
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"I have the car, Mr. Peres; I will build you the cars."
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And actually true to form, Renault has put a billion and a half dollars
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in building nine different types of cars that fit this kind of model
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that will come into the market in mass volume --
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mass volume being the first year, 100 thousand cars.
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It's the first mass-volume electric car,
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zero-emission electric car in the market.
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I was running, as Chris said,
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to be the CEO of a large software company called SAP
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And then Peres said, "Well won't you run this project?"
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And I said, "I'm ready for CEO" And he said,
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"Oh no no no no no. You've got to explain to me,
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what is more important than saving your country and saving the world,
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that you would go and do?"
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And I had to quit and come and do this thing called A Better Place.
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We then decided to scale it up.
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We went to other countries. As I said we went to Denmark.
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And Denmark set this beautiful policy;
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it's called the IQ test.
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It's inversely proportional to taxes.
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They put 180 percent tax on gasoline cars
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and zero tax on zero-emission cars.
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So if you want to buy a gasoline car in Denmark, it costs you about 60,000 Euros.
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If you buy our car it's about 20,000 Euros.
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If you fail the IQ test they ask you to leave the country.
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(Laughter)
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We then were sort of coined as the guys
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who run only in small islands.
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I know most people don't think of Israel as a small island,
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but Israel is an island -- it's a transportation island.
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If your car is driving outside Israel it's been stolen.
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(Laughter)
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If you're thinking about it in terms of islands,
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we decided to go to the biggest island that we could find,
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and that was Australia. The third country we announced was Australia.
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It's got three centers --
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in Brisbane, in Melbourne, in Sydney --
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and one freeway, one electric freeway that connects them.
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The next island
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was not too hard to find, and that was Hawaii.
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We decided to come into the U.S.
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and pick the two best places --
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the one where you didn't need any range extension.
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Hawaii you can drive around the island on one battery.
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And if you really have a long day you can switch,
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and keep on driving around the island.
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The second one was the San Francisco Bay Area
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where Gavin Newsom created a beautiful policy across all the mayors.
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He decided that he's going to take over
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the state, unofficially, and then officially,
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and then created this beautiful Region One policy.
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In the San Francisco Bay Area not only do you have
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the highest concentration of Priuses,
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but you also have the perfect range extender.
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It's called the other car.
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As we stared scaling it up
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we looked at what is the problem to come up to the U.S.?
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Why is this a big issue?
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And the most fascinating thing we've learned is that,
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when you have small problems on the individual level,
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like the price of gasoline to drive every morning.
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You don't notice it, but when the aggregate comes up
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you're dead. Alright?
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So the price of oil, much like
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lots of other curves that we've seen,
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goes along a depletion curve.
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The foundation of this curve is that we keep losing the wells that are close to the ground.
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And we keep getting wells that are farther away from the ground.
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It becomes more and more and more expensive to dig them out.
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You think, well it's been up, it's been down,
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its been up, it's going to keep on going up and down.
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Here is the problem:
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at 147 dollars a barrel, which we were in six months ago,
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the U.S. spent a ton of money to get oil.
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Then we lost our economy and we went back down to 47 --
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sometimes it's 40, sometimes it's 50.
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Now we're running a stimulus package.
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It's called the trillion-dollar stimulus package.
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We're going to revive the economy. Hopefully it happens between now and 2015,
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somewhere in that space.
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What happens when the economy recovers?
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By 2015 we would have had at least 250 million new cars
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even at the pace we're going at right now.
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That's another 30 percent demand on oil.
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That is another 25 million barrels a day.
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That's all the U.S. usage today.
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In other words at some point when we've recovered we go up to the peak.
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And then we do the OPEC stimulus package
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also known as 200 dollars a barrel.
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We take our money and we give it away.
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You know what happens at that point?
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We go back down. It's going to go up and down.
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And the downs are going to be much longer
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and the ups are going to be much shorter.
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And that's the difference between problems that are additive,
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like CO2, which we go slowly up and then we tip,
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and problems that are depletive,
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in which we lose what we have,
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which oscillate, and they oscillate until
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we lose everything we've got.
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Now we actually looked at what the answer would be.
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Right? Remember in the campaign: one million
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hybrid cars by 2015.
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That is 0.5 percent of the U.S. oil consumption.
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That is oh point oh well percent of the rest of the world.
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That won't do much difference.
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We looked at an MIT study:
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ten million electric cars on the global roads.
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Ten million out of 500 million we will add between now and then.
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That is the most pessimistic number you can have.
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It's also the most optimistic number
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because it means we will scale this industry
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from 100 thousand cars is 2011,
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to 10 million cars by 2016 --
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100 x growth in less than five years.
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You have to remember that the world today is bringing in so many cars.
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We have 10 million cars by region.
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That's an enormous amount of cars.
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China is adding those cars --
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India, Russia, Brazil.
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We have all these regions.
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Europe has solved it. They just put a tax on gasoline.
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They'll be the first in line to get off
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because their prices are high.
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China solves it by an edict. At some point they'll just declare
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that no gasoline car will come into a city, and that will be it.
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The Indians don't even understand why we think of it as a problem
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because most people in India fill two or three gallons every time.
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For them to get a battery that goes 120 miles
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is an extension on range, not a reduction in range.
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We're the only ones who don't have the price set right.
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We don't have the industry set right.
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We don't have any incentive to go and resolve it
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across the U.S.
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Now where is the car industry on that?
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Very interesting. The car industry has been focused just on themselves.
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They basically looked at it and said, "Car 1.0
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we'll solve everything within the car itself."
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No infrastructure, no problem.
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We forgot about the entire chain around us.
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All this stuff that happens around.
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We are looking at the emergence of a car 2.0 --
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a whole new market, a whole new business model.
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The business model in which the money that is actually coming in,
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to drive the car --
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the minutes, the miles if you want,
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that you are all familiar with --
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subsidize the price of the car,
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just like cellphones. You'll pay for the miles.
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And some of it will go back to the car maker.
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Some of it will go back to your own pocket.
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But our cars are actually going to be cheaper than gasoline cars.
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You're looking at a world where cars are matched with windmills.
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In Denmark, we will drive all the cars in Denmark
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from windmills, not from oil.
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In Israel, we've asked to put a solar farm
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in the south of Israel.
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And people said, "Oh that's a very very large space that you're asking for."
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And we said, "What if we had proven that in the same space
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we found oil for the country for the next hundred years?"
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And they said, "We tried. There isn't any."
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We said, "No no, but what if we prove it?"
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And they said, "Well you can dig." And we decided to dig up,
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instead of digging down.
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These are perfect matches to one another.
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Now all you need is about 10 percent
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of the electricity generated.
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Think of it as a project that spans over about 10 years.
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That's one percent a year.
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Now when we're looking at solving big problems,
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we need to start thinking in two numbers.
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And those are not 20 percent by 2020.
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The two numbers are zero -- as in zero footprint or zero oil --
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and scale it infinity.
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And when we go to COP15 at the end of this year
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we can't stop thinking of padding CO2.
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We have to start thinking about giving kickers to countries
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that are willing to go to this kind of scale.
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One car emits four tons.
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And actually 700 and change million cars today
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emit 2.8 billion tons of CO2.
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That's, in the additive, about 25 percent of our problem.
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Cars and trucks add up to about 25 percent of the world's CO2 emissions.
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We have to come and attack this problem
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with a focus, with an effort that actually says,
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we're going to go to zero before the world ends.
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I actually shared that with some legislators here in the U.S.
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I shared it with a gentleman called Bobby Kennedy Jr., who is one of my idols.
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I told him one of the reasons that
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his uncle was remembered
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is because he said we're going to send a man to the moon,
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and we'll do it by the end of the decade.
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We didn't say we're going to send a man 20 percent to the moon.
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And there will be about a 20 percent chance we'll recover him.
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(Laughter)
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He actually shared with me another story, which is from about 200 years ago.
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200 years ago, in Parliament, in Great Britain,
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there was a long argument
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over economy versus morality.
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25 percent -- just like 25 percent emissions today comes from cars --
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25 percent of their energy
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for the entire industrial world in the U.K.
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came from a source of energy that was immoral:
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human slaves.
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And there was an argument. Should we stop using slaves?
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And what would it do to our economy?
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And people said, "Well we need to take time to do it.
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Let's not do it immediately. Maybe we free the kids
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and keep the slaves.
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And after a month of arguments they decided to stop slavery,
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and the industrial revolution started within less than one year.
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And the U.K. had 100 years of economic growth.
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We have to make the right moral decision.
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We have to make it immediately.
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We need to have presidential leadership
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just like we had in Israel that said we will end oil.
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And we need to do it not within 20 years or 50 years,
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but within this presidential term
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because if we don't, we will lose our economy,
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right after we'd lost our morality.
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Thank you all very much.
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(Applause)
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About this website

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