Shai Agassi: A new ecosystem for electric cars

127,238 views ・ 2009-04-13

TED


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譯者: Adrienne Lin 審譯者: Geoff Chen
00:18
So how would you run a whole country without oil?
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一個國家要是沒有石油會如何?
00:22
That's the question that sort of hit me
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這問題是我四年前,
00:24
in the middle of a Davos afternoon about four years ago.
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在達沃斯(瑞士)的一個下午突然想到的。
00:27
It never left my brain.
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這問題纏著我好久
00:29
And I started playing with it more like a puzzle.
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所以我開始解決這個謎題
00:32
The original thought I had: this must be ethanol.
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我原本想,酒精是解決方式
00:34
So I went out and researched ethanol,
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所以我做了酒精的研究
00:36
and found out you need the Amazon in your backyard in every country.
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發現,每個國家都得要有亞馬遜雨林,才有辦法成功
00:39
About six months later I figured out it must be hydrogen,
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半年後,我覺得氮氣是解決方式
00:42
until some scientist told me the unfortunate truth,
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直到一些科學家告訴我這個不幸的事實,
00:45
which is, you actually use more
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就是,如果用氮氣,
00:48
clean electrons than the ones you get
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那我用掉的乾淨電子會比
00:50
inside a car, if you use hydrogen.
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汽車使用的電子還多。
00:52
So that is not going to be the path to go.
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所以這條路也行不通
00:55
And then sort of through a process of
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所以一連串的嘗試
00:58
wandering around, I got to the thought
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我終於想到
01:00
that actually if you could convert an entire country to electric cars,
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如果要整個國家都使用電動車
01:03
in a way that is convenient and affordable,
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那就要讓它方便、便宜
01:06
you could get to a solution.
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才有辦法解決這難題
01:09
Now I started this from a point of view that
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所以我的出發點是,
01:12
it has to be something that scales en masse.
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這解決方式一定要大規模的
01:14
Not how do you build one car,
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跟汽車製造無關
01:16
but how do you scale this so that it can become
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而是要讓它的規模大到
01:18
something that is used by 99 percent of the population?
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99%的人口都使用
01:23
The thought that came to mind is that it needs to be as good
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我的想法是,這東西一定要
01:26
as any car that you would have today.
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比現在汽車更好
01:28
So one, it has to be more convenient than a car.
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所以,第一:一定要比汽車方便
01:31
And two, it has be more affordable than today's cars.
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第二:一定要比現在的車價便宜
01:34
Affordable is not a 40,000 dollar sedan, right?
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一部轎車4萬可不叫便宜
01:37
Alright? That's not something that we can finance or buy today.
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對吧?這種價格普通人付不起
01:40
And convenient is not something that you drive for an hour and charge for eight.
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而開車1小時需充電8小時可不叫方便
01:44
So we're bound with the laws of physics
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所以我們需要考慮到物理限制
01:47
and the laws of economics.
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以及經濟限制
01:49
And so the thought that I started with was
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所以我開始想著
01:52
how do you do this, still within the boundary
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實際的計畫,還得要
01:55
of the science we know today --
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現在科學能達成才行
01:57
no time for science fair, no time for playing around with things
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否則我們沒有多餘時間
02:00
or waiting for the magic battery to show up.
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研究、等待魔術電池的發明
02:02
How do you do it within the economics that we have today?
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那要怎麼在現今經濟下達成?
02:04
How do you do it from the power of the consumer up?
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怎麼促進消費者自發的能力?
02:06
And not from the power of an edict down.
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而非從法令規定下手
02:09
On a random visit to Tesla on some afternoon,
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有次參觀特斯拉(Tesla美國電動車廠)時,
02:12
I actually found out that the answer comes
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我終於發現,答案就是
02:14
from separating between the car ownership
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車廠與電池廠的
02:17
and the battery ownership.
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區分機制
02:19
In a sense if you want to think about it this is the classic
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你想想就是經典的:
02:22
"batteries not included."
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「本品不附電池」
02:25
Now if you separate between the two,
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如果你將兩者分開
02:27
you could actually answer the need for a convenient car
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就是一台便利的車所需要的
02:30
by creating a network,
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就由創造一種網路
02:32
by creating a network before the cars show up.
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在汽車出現前,創造這種網路
02:35
The network has two components in them.
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這網路有兩個部份
02:38
First component is you charge the car whenever you stop --
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第一部分:車停的時候,馬上充電
02:41
ends up that cars are these strange beasts that drive
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結果是,這些車變成
02:44
for about two hours and park for about 22 hours.
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開2小時車,得充電22小時
02:47
If you drive a car in the morning and drive it back in the afternoon
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如果早上開車出門,下午開車回家
02:51
the ratio of charge to drive is about a minute for a minute.
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充電與開車比例是一分鐘比一分鐘
02:54
And so the first thought that came to mind is,
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所以我馬上想到
02:56
everywhere we park we have electric power.
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讓所有停車處都要有電力設備
02:59
Now it sounds crazy. But in some places around the world,
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聽起來很瘋狂,但有很多國家
03:01
like Scandinavia, you already have that.
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像是北歐,已經這麼做了
03:04
If you park your car and didn't plug in the heater,
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如果停車的時候,沒插上暖風裝置
03:06
when you come back you don't have a car. It just doesn't work.
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你要開的時候就發不動了
03:09
Now that last mile,
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最後一哩,
03:12
last foot, in a sense,
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或說最後一步
03:14
is the first step of the infrastructure.
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就是基礎建設的第一步
03:15
The second step of the infrastructure needs to take care
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第二步就是,基礎建設需要做到
03:17
of the range extension.
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範圍的擴大
03:19
See we're bound by today's technology on batteries,
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電池發展受限於現今的科技
03:22
which is about 120 miles if you want to stay within
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已一般空間、重量來算
03:24
reasonable space and weight limitations.
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大概是120英里
03:28
120 miles is a good enough range for a lot of people.
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120英里對大部份人來說已經足夠
03:32
But you never want to get stuck.
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但沒人希望途中突然沒電
03:34
So what we added is a second element to our network,
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所以我們的網路加進第二部份
03:36
which is a battery swap system.
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也就是電池交換站
03:38
You drive. You take your depleted battery out.
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你開車,電池沒電了
03:41
A full battery comes on. And you drive on.
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到交換站換電池,繼續開
03:44
You don't do it as a human being. You do it as a machine.
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非常機械化的過程
03:46
It looks like a car wash. You come into your car wash.
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有點像是洗車服務
03:49
And a plate comes up, holds your battery, takes it out, puts it back in, and
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所以將板子打開,電池取車,充電放入
03:52
within two minutes you're back on the road
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不到兩分鐘就可以上路了
03:54
and you can go again.
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就這麼簡單
03:57
If you had charge spots everywhere,
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如果到哪都有充電處、
03:59
and you had battery swap stations everywhere,
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到處都有電池交換站
04:01
how often would you do it? And it ends up
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那你多久需要充電一次?
04:03
that you'd do swapping less times than you stop at a gas station.
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結果是,比你到加油站的數量還少
04:07
As a matter of fact, we added to the contract.
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事實上,我們契約中有一條
04:10
We said that if you stop to swap your battery more than 50 times a year
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說明,如果你一年需要到充電站超過50次,
04:13
we start paying you money
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我們就會付你錢
04:15
because it's an inconvenience.
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因為這樣對你不便利
04:17
Then we looked at the question of the affordability.
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再來,我們來看價格問題
04:20
We looked at the question, what happens when the battery is
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我們研究,如果電池與車子分離
04:22
disconnected from the car.
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會如何?
04:24
What is the cost of that battery?
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那電池花費是多少?
04:26
Everybody tells us batteries are so expensive.
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每個人都反應電池太貴
04:28
What we found out, when you move from molecules to electrons,
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我們發現,如果你從分子移到電子
04:31
something interesting happens.
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有趣的事就發生了
04:33
We can go back to the original economics of the car and look at it again.
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我們回到原本的汽車經濟情況,重新審視
04:36
The battery is not the gas tank, in a sense.
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電池與油箱,基本上是不同的
04:38
Remember in your car you have a gas tank.
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記得汽車是使用油箱
04:40
You have the crude oil.
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獲取原油後
04:42
And you have refining and delivery of that crude oil
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提煉、運輸,原油就變成
04:44
as what we call petrol or gasoline.
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我們所使用的汽油
04:46
The battery in this sense, is the crude oil.
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電池某方面來說,就像原油
04:50
We have a battery bay. It costs the same hundred dollars
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我們有電池海灣,與油箱的花費相同
04:53
as the gas tank.
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幾百塊而已
04:55
But the crude oil is replaced with a battery.
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但電池取代石油的功能
04:57
Just it doesn't burn. It consumes itself
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不會燃燒,電池會一步步
04:59
step after step after step.
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自己耗損
05:01
It has 2,000 life cycles these days.
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現在的電池可以充電兩千次
05:03
And so it's sort of a mini well.
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就像個小油井
05:06
We were asked in the past when we bought an electric car
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之前,我們買電動車時
05:08
to pay for the entire well, for the life of the car.
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等於是負擔整個油井的價錢
05:10
Nobody wants to buy a mini well when they buy a car.
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沒有人買車時,想花這麼多錢個小油井
05:13
In a sense what we've done is
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所以我們做的是
05:15
we've created a new consumable.
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創造一種新耗材
05:17
You, today, buy gasoline miles.
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現在大家買的是汽油里程
05:19
And we created electric miles.
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我們就創造電子里程
05:22
And the price of electric miles ends up being a very interesting number.
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電子里程價錢加起來是個有趣的數字
05:26
Today 2010, in volume,
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2010的今日,大量來說
05:28
when we come to market, it is eight cents a mile.
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我們的市場價格是一英里8分美元
05:32
Those of you who have a hard time calculating what that means --
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如果你數學不好的
05:34
in the average consumer
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美國目前平均
05:37
environment we're in in the U.S.
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汽油花費是
05:39
20 miles per gallon that's a buck 50, a buck 60 a gallon.
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一加侖20英里,1.5到1.6美金
05:42
That's cheaper than today's gasoline, even in the U.S.
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比油價便宜多了,連在美國也一樣
05:46
In Europe where taxes are in place,
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歐洲因為稅法嚴格
05:49
that's the equivalent to a minus 60 dollar barrel.
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計算起來等於一桶負60元美金
05:54
But e-miles follow Moore's Law.
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但電子里程根據摩爾定律
05:58
They go from eight cents a mile in 2010,
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2010年的一哩8分美金
06:01
to four cents a mile in 2015,
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到2010年變成4分
06:03
to two cents a mile by 2020.
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2020年只有2分美金
06:07
Why? Because batteries life cycle improve --
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為什麼?因為電池壽命增加-
06:10
a bit of improvement on energy density, which reduces the price.
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能源密集的技術進步,讓價格降低
06:13
And these prices are actually with clean electrons.
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這些價格都是乾淨的電子
06:16
We do not use any electrons that come from coal.
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完全沒用到煤炭
06:20
So in a sense this is
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這樣看來
06:22
an absolute zero-carbon, zero-fossil fuel
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這是完全無碳、無化石燃料的
06:25
electric mile at two cents a mile by 2020.
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電子里程在2020年,一哩只要2分錢
06:29
Now even if we get to 40 miles per gallon
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如果順利的話,2020年的石油
06:31
by 2020, which is our desire.
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若達到一加崙40哩
06:33
Imagine only 40 miles per gallon cars would be on the road.
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想像一加崙40哩在路上跑
06:36
That is an 80 cent gallon.
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一加崙等於80分
06:38
An 80 cent gallon means, if the entire Pacific
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一加崙80分等於是等個太平洋
06:40
would convert to crude oil,
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都變成原油才能達成
06:42
and we'd let any oil company bring it out and refine it,
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然後讓石油公司獲取、提煉
06:45
they still can't compete with two cents a mile.
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還是無法與一哩2分錢比較
06:49
That's a new economic factor,
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這是個新的經濟因素
06:51
which is fascinating to most people.
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大部分人都感興趣
06:53
Now this would have been a wonderful paper.
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寫成論文發表應該也不錯
06:55
That's how I solved it in my head. It was a white paper I handed out to governments.
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這是我腦子裡的想法,送給一些政府看的是一份白皮書
06:58
And some governments told me that it's fascinating
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有些政府官員告訴我,他們覺得很有趣
07:00
that the younger generation actually thinks about these things.
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年輕人竟然會去關心這種事
07:03
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:04
Until I got to the
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直到我連絡上
07:06
true young global leader, Shimon Peres, President of Israel,
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真正、年輕的全球領袖-以色列總統西蒙‧佩雷斯(Shimon Peres)
07:09
and he ran a beautiful manipulation on me.
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他後來擺了我一道
07:12
First he let me go to the prime minister of the country,
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首先他讓我去找總理
07:14
who told me, if you can find the money you need for this network,
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總理告訴我,如果我能籌到建構這網路所需的
07:16
200 million dollars,
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兩億美金
07:18
and if you can find a car company
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還有,找到一家車廠
07:20
that will build that car in mass volume,
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願意大量生產以色列所需的
07:22
in two million cars -- that's what we needed in Israel --
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兩百萬台電動車
07:24
I'll give you country to invest the 200 million into.
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他就給我一個國家讓我實行這計畫
07:28
Peres thought that was a great idea.
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佩雷斯覺得這是個好點子
07:31
So we went out, and we looked at all the car companies.
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所以我們開始尋找車商
07:35
We sent letters to all the car companies.
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寄信給他們
07:37
Three of them never showed up. One of them asked us
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有三家完全不搭理,其中一家說
07:39
if we would stay with hybrids and they would give us a discount.
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如果我們繼續用油電混燃車(hybrid),就給我們打折
07:42
But one of them Carlos Ghosn, CEO of Renault and Nissan,
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但其中一位,雷諾-日產的總裁卡洛斯·戈恩(Carlos Ghosn)
07:45
when asked about hybrids said something very fascinating.
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說了一段我們覺得很棒的話
07:48
He said hybrids are like mermaids.
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他說,油電混燃車就像美人魚
07:50
When you want a fish you get a woman and
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你要魚的時候,得到的是美人
07:52
when you need a woman you get a fish.
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你要美人的時候,得到的是魚
07:54
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:57
And Ghosn came up and said,
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戈恩就說:
07:59
"I have the car, Mr. Peres; I will build you the cars."
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「我有車,佩雷斯總統,我可以幫你製造車子」
08:01
And actually true to form, Renault has put a billion and a half dollars
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這是真的,雷諾投入了15億資金
08:04
in building nine different types of cars that fit this kind of model
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生產了九種不同款式的電動車
08:07
that will come into the market in mass volume --
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將會大量上市
08:10
mass volume being the first year, 100 thousand cars.
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第一年的數量將達十萬部
08:13
It's the first mass-volume electric car,
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這是第一批大量生產的電動車
08:15
zero-emission electric car in the market.
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零排放量的電動車上市了
08:18
I was running, as Chris said,
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如Chris介紹,我當時
08:22
to be the CEO of a large software company called SAP
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正在爭取SAP(軟體公司)執行長的位子
08:25
And then Peres said, "Well won't you run this project?"
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然後佩雷斯要求我負責這個專案
08:29
And I said, "I'm ready for CEO" And he said,
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我說,我已經要接任執行長了,他告訴我,
08:31
"Oh no no no no no. You've got to explain to me,
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「不不不,除非你能告訴我,」
08:34
what is more important than saving your country and saving the world,
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「有什麼事會比拯救你的國家、世界更重要,」
08:36
that you would go and do?"
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「而且你非做不可的?」
08:38
And I had to quit and come and do this thing called A Better Place.
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所以我辭了CEO,專心弄A Better Place公司
08:40
We then decided to scale it up.
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後來我們決定擴大規模
08:43
We went to other countries. As I said we went to Denmark.
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我們到其他國家--丹麥
08:45
And Denmark set this beautiful policy;
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丹麥有個美妙的政策
08:47
it's called the IQ test.
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叫智力測驗
08:49
It's inversely proportional to taxes.
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測驗成績與稅額成反比
08:51
They put 180 percent tax on gasoline cars
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他們對汽車課了180%的稅
08:55
and zero tax on zero-emission cars.
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零排放量的車就免稅
08:57
So if you want to buy a gasoline car in Denmark, it costs you about 60,000 Euros.
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在丹麥,買部汽車要花六萬歐元
09:01
If you buy our car it's about 20,000 Euros.
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買電動車只要兩萬歐元
09:03
If you fail the IQ test they ask you to leave the country.
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如果智力測驗結果太低,就會被逼離丹麥
09:06
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:08
We then were sort of coined as the guys
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大家對我們的印象就是
09:10
who run only in small islands.
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只在小島活動而已
09:12
I know most people don't think of Israel as a small island,
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我知道大部分人,不認為以色列是小島
09:14
but Israel is an island -- it's a transportation island.
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但它的確是座島,一座運輸島
09:17
If your car is driving outside Israel it's been stolen.
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如果發現你的車開出以色列,一定是被偷了
09:20
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
09:22
If you're thinking about it in terms of islands,
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如果要以島作為目標
09:25
we decided to go to the biggest island that we could find,
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我們決定去世上最大的島
09:27
and that was Australia. The third country we announced was Australia.
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就是澳洲了,第三個目的地就是澳洲
09:30
It's got three centers --
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它有三大城:
09:32
in Brisbane, in Melbourne, in Sydney --
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墨爾本、布里斯本、雪梨
09:35
and one freeway, one electric freeway that connects them.
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一條電動高速公路連結三地
09:37
The next island
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下一座島
09:39
was not too hard to find, and that was Hawaii.
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不難找,就是夏威夷
09:41
We decided to come into the U.S.
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我們決定進軍美國
09:43
and pick the two best places --
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選了最棒的兩個地點
09:45
the one where you didn't need any range extension.
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第一個地點,不需要擴大規模
09:47
Hawaii you can drive around the island on one battery.
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在夏威夷,一顆電池就能跑整座島
09:49
And if you really have a long day you can switch,
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如果要開一整天,頂多再換上一顆電池
09:51
and keep on driving around the island.
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就能繼續開車環島
09:53
The second one was the San Francisco Bay Area
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第二個地點,是舊金山灣區
09:55
where Gavin Newsom created a beautiful policy across all the mayors.
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市長Gavin Newsom定了個全新政策
09:58
He decided that he's going to take over
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他決定掌管整個加州
10:00
the state, unofficially, and then officially,
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先非正式接收、再正式接收
10:03
and then created this beautiful Region One policy.
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這美妙的政策叫第一區政策
10:07
In the San Francisco Bay Area not only do you have
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舊金山灣區有密度最高的
10:09
the highest concentration of Priuses,
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豐田(油電兩用車Prius)數量
10:11
but you also have the perfect range extender.
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還有最完美的增程引擎(電力用完後使用燃油)
10:13
It's called the other car.
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被稱為「另類車」
10:15
As we stared scaling it up
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我們開始擴大規模
10:18
we looked at what is the problem to come up to the U.S.?
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想想美國所面臨的問題
10:21
Why is this a big issue?
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到底是什麼?
10:23
And the most fascinating thing we've learned is that,
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我們所學到最有趣的事情就是
10:25
when you have small problems on the individual level,
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當你以個人層面來思考小問題
10:28
like the price of gasoline to drive every morning.
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像是每天要加的油價
10:31
You don't notice it, but when the aggregate comes up
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平常不會注意,但所有油價加總起來
10:33
you're dead. Alright?
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會嚇死人,對吧?
10:35
So the price of oil, much like
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所以油價,
10:38
lots of other curves that we've seen,
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如我們看到的曲線
10:40
goes along a depletion curve.
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是呈現消減狀態的
10:42
The foundation of this curve is that we keep losing the wells that are close to the ground.
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曲線幅度之所以越來越大,是因為接近地面的石油漸漸挖光了
10:45
And we keep getting wells that are farther away from the ground.
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我們就必須挖的更深
10:48
It becomes more and more and more expensive to dig them out.
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所以開挖石油越來越貴
10:50
You think, well it's been up, it's been down,
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想想看,曲線上升又下降
10:53
its been up, it's going to keep on going up and down.
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上升過了,又會下降再上升
10:55
Here is the problem:
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問題來了:
10:57
at 147 dollars a barrel, which we were in six months ago,
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半年前的一桶147美元價格
11:00
the U.S. spent a ton of money to get oil.
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美國花了一大把錢獲得石油
11:04
Then we lost our economy and we went back down to 47 --
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經濟蕭條後回到47美元
11:07
sometimes it's 40, sometimes it's 50.
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偶爾在40到50元間浮動
11:09
Now we're running a stimulus package.
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現在提倡的振興經濟方案
11:11
It's called the trillion-dollar stimulus package.
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一兆元振興經濟方案
11:13
We're going to revive the economy. Hopefully it happens between now and 2015,
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我們拿來救經濟,希望到2015年能達成
11:17
somewhere in that space.
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約五年的時間
11:19
What happens when the economy recovers?
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那經濟復甦後會發生什麼事呢?
11:22
By 2015 we would have had at least 250 million new cars
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到2015年,我們會生產至少兩億五千萬部新車
11:27
even at the pace we're going at right now.
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以目前的速度推算
11:29
That's another 30 percent demand on oil.
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石油的供應會增加30%
11:31
That is another 25 million barrels a day.
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等於一天需要額外2500萬桶石油
11:34
That's all the U.S. usage today.
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這是現今全美的需求量
11:38
In other words at some point when we've recovered we go up to the peak.
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換句話說,當我們景氣回升到頂點
11:41
And then we do the OPEC stimulus package
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當我們實行石油輸出國家組織(OPEC)的
11:43
also known as 200 dollars a barrel.
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一桶200美元刺激方案
11:45
We take our money and we give it away.
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錢花掉後,還是回到原點
11:47
You know what happens at that point?
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到時候會發生什麼事?
11:49
We go back down. It's going to go up and down.
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我們會走下坡,上上下下
11:51
And the downs are going to be much longer
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下坡將會更久
11:53
and the ups are going to be much shorter.
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復原將會更慢
11:55
And that's the difference between problems that are additive,
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這之間的差距就是附加性的問題:
11:58
like CO2, which we go slowly up and then we tip,
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像二氧化碳,慢慢增加後到達頂點;
12:01
and problems that are depletive,
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以及耗減性的問題:
12:03
in which we lose what we have,
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我們資源慢慢耗盡;
12:05
which oscillate, and they oscillate until
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兩種問題造成曲線的不斷波動
12:07
we lose everything we've got.
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直到失去所有東西為止
12:11
Now we actually looked at what the answer would be.
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所以我們開始找尋答案
12:13
Right? Remember in the campaign: one million
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是吧?記住這口號,2015年以前,
12:15
hybrid cars by 2015.
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油電混燃車數量將達一百萬部
12:19
That is 0.5 percent of the U.S. oil consumption.
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這是美國石油耗量的0.5%
12:23
That is oh point oh well percent of the rest of the world.
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其他國家的零點零幾
12:28
That won't do much difference.
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改變實在不大
12:30
We looked at an MIT study:
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來看麻省理工學院的研究
12:32
ten million electric cars on the global roads.
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全球一千萬部電動車在跑
12:35
Ten million out of 500 million we will add between now and then.
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我們目標五億台電動車中的一千萬部而已
12:39
That is the most pessimistic number you can have.
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感覺起來離目標還很遠
12:41
It's also the most optimistic number
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但這數字同時也表示
12:43
because it means we will scale this industry
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我們對於未來發展有樂觀的前景
12:46
from 100 thousand cars is 2011,
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從2011年的十萬部車
12:48
to 10 million cars by 2016 --
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到2016年的一千萬部車-
12:52
100 x growth in less than five years.
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不到五年,100倍的成長
12:57
You have to remember that the world today is bringing in so many cars.
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要想想,世界對於車子的需求有多龐大
13:00
We have 10 million cars by region.
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各地區約一千萬部
13:03
That's an enormous amount of cars.
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車子的數量很驚人
13:05
China is adding those cars --
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中國的汽車數量增加,
13:07
India, Russia, Brazil.
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還有印度、俄羅斯、巴西
13:09
We have all these regions.
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這些地方都要算進來
13:11
Europe has solved it. They just put a tax on gasoline.
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歐洲已經解決了,他們增加石油稅
13:13
They'll be the first in line to get off
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將會率先解決石油問題
13:15
because their prices are high.
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因為油價過高
13:17
China solves it by an edict. At some point they'll just declare
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中國只要一個政策下去便能解決,
13:19
that no gasoline car will come into a city, and that will be it.
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只要宣佈不再進口石油,一下就能解決了
13:23
The Indians don't even understand why we think of it as a problem
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印度人,還沒意識到發生什麼事
13:26
because most people in India fill two or three gallons every time.
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印度大部分人,每次只加2到3加侖的油
13:28
For them to get a battery that goes 120 miles
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對他們來說,買顆會跑120哩的電池
13:31
is an extension on range, not a reduction in range.
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距離不夠長,其實用不到這麼多
13:35
We're the only ones who don't have the price set right.
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我們幾乎是唯一油價沒定對、
13:38
We don't have the industry set right.
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工業設置也不對的國家
13:40
We don't have any incentive to go and resolve it
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我們根本也沒有誘因
13:42
across the U.S.
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去解決這問題
13:44
Now where is the car industry on that?
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那汽車工業的立場呢?
13:46
Very interesting. The car industry has been focused just on themselves.
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很有趣的是,汽車工業只專注於它們自己
13:49
They basically looked at it and said, "Car 1.0
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他們隨便研究了一下,就覺得
13:51
we'll solve everything within the car itself."
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新版汽車1.0就會解決目前的問題
13:55
No infrastructure, no problem.
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不需要基礎建設、沒有問題
13:58
We forgot about the entire chain around us.
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我們忘了身邊整個大環節
14:01
All this stuff that happens around.
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身旁已經發生的所有事
14:03
We are looking at the emergence of a car 2.0 --
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我們現在已經有2.0版的車了
14:06
a whole new market, a whole new business model.
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一個新市場、新商業模型
14:09
The business model in which the money that is actually coming in,
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這商業模型,其實會讓車子
14:12
to drive the car --
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越開越便宜
14:14
the minutes, the miles if you want,
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里程數、分鐘數這些
14:16
that you are all familiar with --
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你們都清楚的概念
14:18
subsidize the price of the car,
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是可以補貼車價的
14:21
just like cellphones. You'll pay for the miles.
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就像手機,里程數也是用付的
14:23
And some of it will go back to the car maker.
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一部份會回到車商身上
14:25
Some of it will go back to your own pocket.
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一部分回到自己口袋
14:28
But our cars are actually going to be cheaper than gasoline cars.
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但電動車將會比汽車便宜
14:31
You're looking at a world where cars are matched with windmills.
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未來的世界,車子將會是風力發電
14:35
In Denmark, we will drive all the cars in Denmark
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在丹麥,大家所開的車
14:38
from windmills, not from oil.
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都來自風力發電,而非石油
14:41
In Israel, we've asked to put a solar farm
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在以色列,我們要求在南部設置
14:45
in the south of Israel.
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太陽能電廠
14:47
And people said, "Oh that's a very very large space that you're asking for."
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有人質疑:「你要求的土地很大一塊欸」
14:50
And we said, "What if we had proven that in the same space
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我們就問:「如果我們能證明」
14:52
we found oil for the country for the next hundred years?"
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「該地有可供我國下一世紀的石油量呢?」
14:55
And they said, "We tried. There isn't any."
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他們說:「我們調查過了,沒石油」
14:57
We said, "No no, but what if we prove it?"
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我們說:「不,我可以證明有。」
14:59
And they said, "Well you can dig." And we decided to dig up,
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「那你們開挖吧。」但我們決定往上建造(太陽能廠)
15:01
instead of digging down.
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而非向下開挖
15:03
These are perfect matches to one another.
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石油與電力是相匹配的
15:06
Now all you need is about 10 percent
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而且只需要
15:09
of the electricity generated.
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總發電量的10%
15:11
Think of it as a project that spans over about 10 years.
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當成是個可運行十年的計畫
15:14
That's one percent a year.
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一年是1%
15:16
Now when we're looking at solving big problems,
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現在我們來看要怎麼解決大問題
15:19
we need to start thinking in two numbers.
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我們必須從兩個數字來考量
15:21
And those are not 20 percent by 2020.
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這兩個數字不是2020年達到20%
15:23
The two numbers are zero -- as in zero footprint or zero oil --
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這兩個數字分別是零- 0碳足跡、0石油;
15:28
and scale it infinity.
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然後乘以無限大∞
15:31
And when we go to COP15 at the end of this year
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到哥本哈根開第15屆氣候變遷會議(COP15)時
15:33
we can't stop thinking of padding CO2.
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我們不能只想著漸增的二氧化碳量
15:35
We have to start thinking about giving kickers to countries
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我們必須想一些方法,讓世界各國
15:37
that are willing to go to this kind of scale.
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能自發地開始做改變
15:40
One car emits four tons.
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一輛車有四噸的排放量
15:42
And actually 700 and change million cars today
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現在的七億多輛汽車
15:44
emit 2.8 billion tons of CO2.
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排放28億二氧化碳
15:47
That's, in the additive, about 25 percent of our problem.
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這是附加性問題,僅是我們所面臨問題的25%
15:50
Cars and trucks add up to about 25 percent of the world's CO2 emissions.
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汽車、卡車加起來約是全世界二氧化碳排放量的25%
15:55
We have to come and attack this problem
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我們需要一同解決這個問題
15:57
with a focus, with an effort that actually says,
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專心、致力於這個目標
15:59
we're going to go to zero before the world ends.
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世界毀滅前,排放量降到零
16:02
I actually shared that with some legislators here in the U.S.
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我與一些美國國會議員討論過
16:06
I shared it with a gentleman called Bobby Kennedy Jr., who is one of my idols.
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有位羅伯特甘迺迪二世,他是我的偶像
16:11
I told him one of the reasons that
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我告訴他,他的叔叔(甘迺迪總統)
16:13
his uncle was remembered
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被世人記著的原因之一
16:15
is because he said we're going to send a man to the moon,
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是因為他當初堅決要在十年之內
16:18
and we'll do it by the end of the decade.
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將人類送上月球並安全地返回
16:20
We didn't say we're going to send a man 20 percent to the moon.
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他並沒有說,我們送一個人的20%上月球
16:23
And there will be about a 20 percent chance we'll recover him.
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然後他回來的機率有20%
16:26
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
16:29
He actually shared with me another story, which is from about 200 years ago.
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羅伯特告訴了我一個200年前的故事
16:33
200 years ago, in Parliament, in Great Britain,
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200年前,英國的國會
16:36
there was a long argument
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有個很長的辯論
16:38
over economy versus morality.
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有關於經濟與道德
16:40
25 percent -- just like 25 percent emissions today comes from cars --
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如現今我們有25%的排放量來自汽車
16:44
25 percent of their energy
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當時全英國的工業,
16:47
for the entire industrial world in the U.K.
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有25%的力量來源
16:50
came from a source of energy that was immoral:
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都來自非常不道德的
16:53
human slaves.
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奴隸市場
16:55
And there was an argument. Should we stop using slaves?
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所以辯論是,我們是否該停用奴隸?
16:58
And what would it do to our economy?
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這樣對經濟有何影響?
17:00
And people said, "Well we need to take time to do it.
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有些人說:「我們應該一步步來」
17:02
Let's not do it immediately. Maybe we free the kids
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「也許先從解放童工開始,」
17:04
and keep the slaves.
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「奴隸還是留著。」
17:07
And after a month of arguments they decided to stop slavery,
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長達一個月的辯論,他們決定禁止使用奴隸
17:10
and the industrial revolution started within less than one year.
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之後一年內,工業革命開始了
17:14
And the U.K. had 100 years of economic growth.
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而英國就有了100年的經濟成長
17:18
We have to make the right moral decision.
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我們必須做出對的道德決定
17:21
We have to make it immediately.
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並且需要立刻決定
17:24
We need to have presidential leadership
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我們需要總統級的領導
17:26
just like we had in Israel that said we will end oil.
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就像以色列決定停用石油
17:30
And we need to do it not within 20 years or 50 years,
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我們需要在這個總統任期內達成
17:34
but within this presidential term
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而非20、50年
17:37
because if we don't, we will lose our economy,
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如果不這麼做,我們在失去經濟能力前
17:41
right after we'd lost our morality.
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將先失去我們的道德觀
17:43
Thank you all very much.
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謝謝各位
17:45
(Applause)
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(掌聲)
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