Jill Tarter: Why the search for alien intelligence matters

翻译人员: Boyang Zhu 校对人员: Chaoran Yu

So, my question:

我的问题是：

are we alone?

我们是唯一的吗？

The story of humans is the story of ideas --

人类的历史就是“理念“的历史 —

scientific ideas that shine light into dark corners,

将启蒙之光照亮黑暗角落的科学理念，

ideas that we embrace rationally and irrationally,

被我们冷静或狂热拥护的理念，

ideas for which we've lived and died and killed and been killed,

有我们为之而生存、死亡、杀戮，甚至牺牲的理念，

ideas that have vanished in history,

有在历史长河中消逝的理念，

and ideas that have been set in dogma.

也有被列入教条的理念。

It's a story of nations,

这是关于国家

of ideologies,

关于意识形态，

of territories,

关于领域，

and of conflicts among them.

以及其中种种冲突的历史。

But, every moment of human history,

但是，人类历史的任何片刻，

from the Stone Age to the Information Age,

从石器时代到信息时代，

from Sumer and Babylon to the iPod and celebrity gossip,

从苏美尔到巴比伦再从iPod到名流八卦，

they've all been carried out --

全部都是实现在..

every book that you've read,

所有你所阅读的书卷中，

every poem, every laugh, every tear --

诗歌中，所有的欢笑和泪水中，

they've all happened here.

全部都发生在这里，

Here.

这里，

Here.

这里，

Here.

这里。

(Laughter)

(笑声)

Perspective is a very powerful thing.

视角是一种非常强大的东西。

Perspectives can change.

视角会变。

Perspectives can be altered.

视角也可以被改变。

From my perspective, we live on a fragile island of life,

从我的视角看来，我们是生存在这个充满可能性的宇宙中

in a universe of possibilities.

一个纤微的生命之岛上。

For many millennia, humans have been on a journey to find answers,

数千年来，人类始终汲汲于追寻答案中，

answers to questions about naturalism and transcendence,

关于自然主义与超验存在之疑问的答案，

about who we are and why we are,

关于我们是谁及为什么我们会出现在这里，

and of course, who else might be out there.

当然还包括，是否在别的地方可能还存在着生命之类的问题的答案。

Is it really just us?

真的是只有我们吗？

Are we alone in this vast universe

是否我们孤单地存在于这充满能量与物质，

of energy and matter and chemistry and physics?

化学元素与物理规律的浩瀚宇宙之中。

Well, if we are, it's an awful waste of space.

如果真的是这样，那真是太浪费空间了。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

But, what if we're not?

但是，如果这不是真的呢？

What if, out there, others are asking and answering similar questions?

如果在其他地方，有其他人在追问，并试图回答类似的问题？

What if they look up at the night sky, at the same stars,

如果他们也仰望星空，凝视同一颗星辰，

but from the opposite side?

但是他们是在宇宙的另一边呢？

Would the discovery of an older cultural civilization out there

对更久远文明的观察是否

inspire us to find ways to survive

会启发我们寻找到让我们能顺利渡过

our increasingly uncertain technological adolescence?

越发不安定的科技启蒙阶段的方法？

Might it be the discovery of a distant civilization

有没有可能因发现遥远文明

and our common cosmic origins

和我们的共同的起源

that finally drives home the message of the bond among all humans?

而最终带回了揭示全人类内在联系的讯息？

Whether we're born in San Francisco, or Sudan,

无论是出生在旧金山，还是苏丹，

or close to the heart of the Milky Way galaxy,

或者是靠近银河系中心，

we are the products of a billion-year lineage of wandering stardust.

我们都是弥漫在宇宙中的星尘十亿年发展的产物。

We, all of us,

我们所有人

are what happens when a primordial mixture of hydrogen and helium

就是由最初的氢氦混合物进化而来。

evolves for so long that it begins to ask where it came from.

经过了如此漫长的进化之后，我们开始思考自己是从何而来。

Fifty years ago,

五十年前，

the journey to find answers took a different path

寻找答案的旅程找到了另一条途径，

and SETI, the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence,

SETI，寻找外太空星球智慧生命计划，

began.

启动了。

So, what exactly is SETI?

SETI究竟是什么？

Well, SETI uses the tools of astronomy

SETI是尝试使用天文学工具

to try and find evidence of someone else's technology out there.

来寻找其他拥有科技的文明踪迹。

Our own technologies are visible over interstellar distances,

我们自己的科技在星际间是可以被察觉的，

and theirs might be as well.

别人的也同样如此。

It might be that some massive network of communications,

它可能是巨大的通信网络，

or some shield against asteroidal impact,

或者是防御天体碰撞的护罩，

or some huge astro-engineering project that we can't even begin to conceive of,

甚至超出我们想像力的宏伟的空间机械工程，

could generate signals at radio or optical frequencies

产生出可能被持久的搜索计划

that a determined program of searching might detect.

侦测到的无线电信号或光学频率。

For millennia, we've actually turned to the priests and the philosophers

数千年来，我们实际上都在依靠牧师和思想家

for guidance and instruction on this question of whether there's intelligent life out there.

来指引和教导关于是否有地外文明的问题。

Now, we can use the tools of the 21st century to try and observe what is,

今天我们能够使用21世纪的工具来尝试观察

rather than ask what should be, believed.

而不应是犹豫着该相信什么。

SETI doesn't presume the existence of extra terrestrial intelligence;

SETI并不预估地外文明的存在。

it merely notes the possibility, if not the probability

它仅仅是提出可能性，

in this vast universe, which seems fairly uniform.

或其存在在这个广阔宇宙中的概率，应该是非常相当平均的。

The numbers suggest a universe of possibilities.

这些数字展示出一个充满可能性的宇宙。

Our sun is one of 400 billion stars in our galaxy,

我们的太阳是银河系中4000亿颗恒星中的一颗，

and we know that many other stars have planetary systems.

并且我们知道许多其它星球都有行星系，

We've discovered over 350 in the last 14 years,

在过去的14年里我们已经发现了超过350个这样的星系，

including the small planet, announced earlier this week,

包括上周所宣布的小型的行星，

which has a radius just twice the size of the Earth.

大小只有地球的两倍。

And, if even all of the planetary systems in our galaxy were devoid of life,

即使所有的行星系在我们的星系中都不存在生命，

there are still 100 billion other galaxies out there,

另外还有1000多亿个星系，

altogether 10^22 stars.

总共有10的22次方颗恒星。

Now, I'm going to try a trick, and recreate an experiment from this morning.

现在，我来耍个小把戏，我将再现今天早上做的实验。

Remember, one billion?

还记得吗，十亿？

But, this time not one billion dollars, one billion stars.

但是，这次不是十亿美元，而是十亿颗恒星。

Alright, one billion stars.

对，就十亿颗恒星。

Now, up there, 20 feet above the stage,

现在从这里到离地面20尺高的高度，

that's 10 trillion.

就是是十万亿的数量。

Well, what about 10^22?

那10的22次方是怎样？

Where's the line that marks that?

这条边界线会是在哪里？

That line would have to be 3.8 million miles above this stage.

那条线一直要到离这个演讲台380万公里远地方。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

16 times farther away than the moon,

16倍于从这里到月球的距离，

or four percent of the distance to the sun.

或者4％从这里到太阳的距离。

So, there are many possibilities.

所以一定是有很多可能性的。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And much of this vast universe,

在这个广袤无垠的宇宙中很多地方，

much more may be habitable than we once thought,

比我们从前想像的更可能存在着生命，

as we study extremophiles on Earth --

根据我们对地球上嗜极菌进行的研究

organisms that can live in conditions totally inhospitable for us,

一些有机体能在我们完全不能栖息的环境中生存，

in the hot, high pressure thermal vents at the bottom of the ocean,

比如处在深海底炽热高压的热水流火山口，

frozen in ice, in boiling battery acid,

在封冻的冰层间，在沸腾的电酸中，

in the cooling waters of nuclear reactors.

甚至在核子反应堆的冷却剂里，

These extremophiles tell us that life may exist in many other environments.

这些嗜极菌的存在表明生命或许会出现在许多其他环境中。

But those environments are going to be widely spaced in this universe.

但是这些环境在宇宙中非常的分散。

Even our nearest star, the Sun --

即使离我们最近的恒星，太阳 ，

its emissions suffer the tyranny of light speed.

它的辐射也不得不经受光速的限制，

It takes a full eight minutes for its radiation to reach us.

需要整整8分钟才能到达这里。

And the nearest star is 4.2 light years away,

最近的恒星距离我们有4.2光年距离，

which means its light takes 4.2 years to get here.

这就意味着它所发出的光需要4.2年才能到这。

And the edge of our galaxy is 75,000 light years away,

而我们星系的边缘则有75000光年之远，

and the nearest galaxy to us, 2.5 million light years.

离我们最近的星系要250万光年。

That means any signal we detect would have started its journey a long time ago.

这就是说任何我们能侦测到的信号都是很久很久之前就已经被发射出了。

And a signal would give us a glimpse of their past,

这样的一个信号或许能让我们一窥他们的过去，

not their present.

而不是现在。

Which is why Phil Morrison calls SETI, "the archaeology of the future."

这就是为什么Phil Morrison称SETI为“未来考古学”。

It tells us about their past,

它为我们讲述了他们的过去

but detection of a signal tells us it's possible for us to have a long future.

侦测到的信号也给予了我们对一个长远未来之可能性的信心。

I think this is what David Deutsch meant in 2005,

我想这是David Deutsch在2005年所想表达的，

when he ended his Oxford TEDTalk

当时他以自己的

by saying he had two principles he'd like to share for living,

两条生活原则来结束在牛津TED大会的演讲，

and he would like to carve them on stone tablets.

他认为是非常经典的。

The first is that problems are inevitable.

第一条是问题是不可避免的。

The second is that problems are soluble.

第二条是问题是可以解决的。

So, ultimately what's going to determine the success or failure of SETI

最终能决定SETI成功与否的

is the longevity of technologies,

是科技的长存，

and the mean distance between technologies in the cosmos --

以及科技在宇宙中的平均距离 —

distance over space and distance over time.

在时间与空间中的距离。

If technologies don't last and persist,

如果科技不能持续，

we will not succeed.

我们就成功不了。

And we're a very young technology

在这个古老星系

in an old galaxy,

中我们的科技实属稚嫩，

and we don't yet know whether it's possible for technologies to persist.

我们也不知道科技是否能够长存。

So, up until now I've been talking to you about really large numbers.

到现在为止我跟你们讲的都是非常大的数字，

Let me talk about a relatively small number.

让我来讲些相对小的数字。

And that's the length of time that the Earth was lifeless.

就是地球上没有生命存在的时间的长度。

Zircons that are mined in the Jack Hills of western Australia,

如果我们考察下澳洲西部的杰克山所开掘出的锆石，

zircons taken from the Jack Hills of western Australia

从对杰克山取出的锆石的分析中

tell us that within a few hundred million years of the origin of the planet

发现自地球起源之后的几百万年间

there was abundant water and perhaps even life.

有着丰富的水甚至生命。

So, our planet has spent the vast majority of its 4.56 billion year history

所以在我们的星球上45.6亿年中的大部分时间

developing life,

都在培养生命

not anticipating its emergence.

而不只是在期待生命的出现。

Life happened very quickly,

生命出现的非常地快，

and that bodes well for the potential of life elsewhere in the cosmos.

这也预示了宇宙中其他星球上出现生命的潜力。

And the other thing that one should take away from this chart

还有一点应该从这图表中去掉的

is the very narrow range of time

就是所谓人类在这个星球

over which humans can claim to be the dominant intelligence on the planet.

能称得上是拥有支配权的智能生物是非常短暂的。

It's only the last few hundred thousand years

仅仅在最近的几千年中

modern humans have been pursuing technology and civilization.

现代人类才有出现对科技和文明的追求。

So, one needs a very deep appreciation

一个种族需要对这个星球上

of the diversity and incredible scale of life on this planet

生物的多样性以及惊人数量有非常深刻的认知

as the first step in preparing to make contact with life elsewhere in the cosmos.

方能准备与宇宙中其他的生命进行接触。

We are not the pinnacle of evolution.

我们不是处在进化的顶点。

We are not the determined product

我们不是亿万年进化史中

of billions of years of evolutionary plotting and planning.

所精心设计的最终产物。

We are one outcome of a continuing adaptational process.

我们是一个持续适应过程中的产物。

We are residents of one small planet

我们是银河系角落里

in a corner of the Milky Way galaxy.

一个小行星上的居民。

And Homo sapiens are one small leaf

智人只是有着

on a very extensive Tree of Life,

数百万年历史的

which is densely populated by organisms that have been honed for survival

生命之树上的

over millions of years.

一片绿叶。

We misuse language,

我们常用词不当，

and talk about the "ascent" of man.

谈论着“人的升华”。

We understand the scientific basis for the interrelatedness of life

我们虽理解物种关联性的科学依据

but our ego hasn't caught up yet.

但本身的自我意识却还未成熟。

So this "ascent" of man, pinnacle of evolution,

这所谓的“人的升华”，“进化的巅峰”，

has got to go.

必须要去除。

It's a sense of privilege that the natural universe doesn't share.

这是自然宇宙所不认同的一种特权。

Loren Eiseley has said,

洛伦艾斯利说过：

"One does not meet oneself

“一个人在另一种生物的眼里

until one catches the reflection from an eye other than human."

看见自己之前都不会认清自己。”

One day that eye may be that of an intelligent alien,

某一天这双眼可能属于一个拥有智慧的外星人，

and the sooner we eschew our narrow view of evolution

我们越快摒弃对进化的狭隘眼光，

the sooner we can truly explore our ultimate origins and destinations.

就能越早开始真正地探求我们的起源与方向。

We are a small part of the story of cosmic evolution,

我们是宇宙进化史的一小部分，

and we are going to be responsible for our continued participation in that story,

并会为自己的持续参与负起相应责任，

and perhaps SETI will help as well.

或许SETI也会起到它的作用。

Occasionally, throughout history, this concept

在历史长河中，偶然间

of this very large cosmic perspective comes to the surface,

这异常宏伟的宇宙视角概念会浮出水面，

and as a result we see transformative and profound discoveries.

而其结果就是我们所看见的具有强烈变革性及意义深远的发现。

So in 1543, Nicholas Copernicus published "The Revolutions of Heavenly Spheres,"

1543年，尼古拉斯·哥白尼出版了《天体运行论》，

and by taking the Earth out of the center,

通过去除地球中心论，

and putting the sun in the center of the solar system,

将太阳放在了这个太阳系的中心，

he opened our eyes to a much larger universe,

他为我们打开通向更大的宇宙的视野，

of which we are just a small part.

我们是属于其中的一小部分。

And that Copernican revolution continues today

哥白尼的革命直到今天

to influence science and philosophy and technology and theology.

还在持续地影响着科学、哲学、技术以及神学。

So, in 1959, Giuseppe Coccone and Philip Morrison

1956年Giuseppe Coccone和Philip Morrison

published the first SETI article in a refereed journal,

在一篇期刊论文上发表了第一篇有关SETI的文章，

and brought SETI into the scientific mainstream.

并将SETI带入了科学界的主流。

And in 1960, Frank Drake conducted the first SETI observation

在1960年，SETI的Frank Drake进行了第一次对两颗恒星的观测

looking at two stars, Tau Ceti and Epsilon Eridani,

对象是鲸鱼座T星和波江座天苑四星，

for about 150 hours.

这场观测大约进行了150小时。

Now Drake did not discover extraterrestrial intelligence,

Drake并没有发现地外文明，

but he learned a very valuable lesson from a passing aircraft,

但他从一架飞过的飞机上得到了宝贵的经验，

and that's that terrestrial technology can interfere

那就是我们自己的科技会干涉到

with the search for extraterrestrial technology.

对地外文明的搜索。

We've been searching ever since,

从那时起我们都坚持的在搜寻，

but it's impossible to overstate the magnitude of the search that remains.

但是这搜索的程度是不可能夸大的。

All of the concerted SETI efforts, over the last 40-some years,

过去40年来SETI所作的全部努力，

are equivalent to scooping a single glass of water from the oceans.

不过是沧海中的一杯水而已。

And no one would decide that the ocean was without fish

不会有人因为这杯水里没有鱼

on the basis of one glass of water.

就认为整个大海也都没有。

The 21st century now allows us to build bigger glasses --

21世纪（技术）允许我们建造更大的玻璃镜片，

much bigger glasses.

大的多的镜片

In Northern California, we're beginning to take observations

在加利福尼亚北部，我们开始用首批42组

with the first 42 telescopes of the Allen Telescope Array --

艾伦望远镜阵列来进行观测

and I've got to take a moment right now to publicly thank

我要占用一点点时间来向

Paul Allen and Nathan Myhrvold

保罗·艾伦和内森·梅尔沃德

and all the TeamSETI members in the TED community

以及所有TED社区中

who have so generously supported this research.

如此慷慨地支持这项研究的SETI成员们表示感谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）

The ATA is the first telescope built from a large number of small dishes,

ATA是第一个用大量小型碟形天线通过电脑相互链接，

and hooked together with computers.

建造而成地望远镜。

It's making silicon as important as aluminum,

这样硅就变得和铝一样得重要，

and we'll grow it in the future by adding more antennas to reach 350

未来我们会增加更多天线至350座左右

for more sensitivity and leveraging Moore's law for more processing capability.

以获得更佳的敏感度并藉着摩尔定律而利用更多（数据）处理能力。

Today, our signal detection algorithms

今天我们的信号侦测算法

can find very simple artifacts and noise.

可以分析出非常简单的人为信号和噪音。

If you look very hard here you can see the signal from the Voyager 1 spacecraft,

如果你非常仔细地观察还能看到旅行者1号飞船发出的信号，

the most distant human object in the universe,

目前宇宙中离我们最远的人造物，

106 times as far away from us as the sun is.

106倍于地球至太阳之间的距离。

And over those long distances, its signal is very faint when it reaches us.

经过这遥远的距离，当它的信号被我们接收到时已经变的非常微弱。

It may be hard for your eye to see it,

可能用肉眼更难识别，

but it's easily found with our efficient algorithms.

但是使用高效的算法就能很轻易分析出来。

But this is a simple signal,

不过这是个简单的信号，

and tomorrow we want to be able to find more complex signals.

未来我们希望能分析出更加复杂的信号。

This is a very good year.

今年是很棒的一年。

2009 is the 400th anniversary of Galileo's first use of the telescope,

2009是伽利略第一次使用望远镜的400周年，

Darwin's 200th birthday,

达尔文诞辰200周年，

the 150th anniversary of the publication of "On the Origin of Species,"

《物种起源》出版150周年，

the 50th anniversary of SETI as a science,

SETI作为科学研究的50周年，

the 25th anniversary of the incorporation of the SETI Institute as a non-profit,

SETI成为非盈利组织的25周年，

and of course, the 25th anniversary of TED.

当然还有，TED25周年。

And next month, the Kepler Spacecraft will launch

下个月，开普勒飞船会发射升空

and will begin to tell us just how frequent Earth-like planets are,

并告诉我们像地球一样的行星在宇宙中的存在有多频繁，

the targets for SETI's searches.

这即是SETI搜索的目标们。

In 2009, the U.N. has declared it to be the International Year of Astronomy,

联合国宣布2009年为国际天文年，

a global festival to help us residents of Earth

一个全球性的节日旨在帮助

rediscover our cosmic origins and our place in the universe.

地球居民重新来探索我们的起源以及我们在宇宙中的位置。

And in 2009, change has come to Washington,

并且在2009年，华盛顿有了新的改变，

with a promise to put science in its rightful position.

这伴随着将科学回归到正确地位的承诺。

(Applause)

（掌声）

So, what would change everything?

什么才能改变一切？

Well, this is the question the Edge foundation asked this year,

这是今年“边缘”组织所提出的问题，

and four of the respondents said, "SETI."

而其中四个调查对象回答道："SETI"。

Why?

为什么？

Well, to quote:

有人说过：

"The discovery of intelligent life beyond Earth

“对地球以外智慧生物的发现

would eradicate the loneliness and solipsism

将根除从最初就折磨着我们这个种族

that has plagued our species since its inception.

的孤单与唯我论。

And it wouldn't simply change everything,

这将不仅仅是改变一切，

it would change everything all at once."

它将彻彻底底地一次性改变所有事情。“

So, if that's right, why did we only capture four out of those 151 minds?

如果真是那样，为什么在151位被调查者中只有4位这样是认为？

I think it's a problem of completion and delivery,

我认为这是一个实现与表述上的问题，

because the fine print said,

因为那排小字上说了：

"What game-changing ideas and scientific developments

”你将希望在有生之年看到

would you expect to live to see?"

什么样的震撼想法与科技发展？“

So, we have a fulfillment problem.

这样我们就有了一个实践上的困难。

We need bigger glasses and more hands in the water,

我们需要更大的镜片和更多的人手

and then working together, maybe we can all live to see

加入进来共同努力，或许在我们的有生之年

the detection of the first extraterrestrial signal.

可能会侦测到第一个来自地外的信号。

That brings me to my wish.

这就带出了我的愿望。

I wish that you would empower Earthlings everywhere

我希望你们能鼓励

to become active participants

世界各地的地球人积极参与进

in the ultimate search for cosmic company.

这个对宇宙同伴的终极搜索中来。

The first step would be to tap into the global brain trust,

第一步即是利用全球智囊团，

to build an environment where raw data could be stored,

来建构一个原始数据，

and where it could be accessed and manipulated,

这个原始数据能被储存、访问、操作，

where new algorithms could be developed and old algorithms made more efficient.

同时新的算法将被开发而且原有算法亦可改进。

And this is a technically creative challenge,

这是一个技术上的创新挑战，

and it would change the perspective of people who worked on it.

它也将改变参与其中的人们视角。

And then, we'd like to augment the automated search with human insight.

接着，我们希望通过人工的分析来补强自动搜索。

We'd like to use the pattern recognition capability of the human eye

我们想使用人眼的模式识别能力来帮助发现

to find faint, complex signals that our current algorithms miss.

现有算法所遗漏的黯淡、复杂的信号。

And, of course, we'd like to inspire and engage the next generation.

当然我们很乐意启发及带动下一代。

We'd like to take the materials that we have built for education,

我们希望能将已整理好的资料用于教学，

and get them out to students everywhere,

分发给各地的学生，

students that can't come and visit us at the ATA.

学生们不一定要前来ATA（艾伦望远镜阵列）访问我们。

We'd like to tell our story better,

我们希望能更好地讲述这些故事，

and engage young people, and thereby change their perspective.

并让年轻人参与进来，借此来改变他们的视角。

I'm sorry Seth Godin, but over the millennia, we've seen where tribalism leads.

很抱歉赛思·戈丁，但是千年以来，我们已经看出部落制会走到什么地步。

We've seen what happens when we divide an already small planet

我们看到了将一个本来就非常小的星球

into smaller islands.

再分割成许多小岛会发生什么。

And, ultimately, we actually all belong to only one tribe,

最终，我们实际上只属于一个部落，

to Earthlings.

我们都是地球人。

And SETI is a mirror --

SETI是一面镜子，

a mirror that can show us ourselves

一面能通过卓越视角

from an extraordinary perspective,

折射出我们自己

and can help to trivialize the differences among us.

并削减人与人之间差异的镜子

If SETI does nothing but change the perspective of humans on this planet,

如果SETI除了改变这个星球上人类的视角以外什么都没做到，

then it will be one of the most profound endeavors in history.

那它也可成为历史上影响最深远的运动之一。

So, in the opening days of 2009,

所以在2009年的开端，

a visionary president stood on the steps of the U.S. Capitol

一位具有远见卓识的总统踏入美国国会

and said, "We cannot help but believe

并说到：“ 我们不得不相信

that the old hatreds shall someday pass,

某天老旧的怨恨终会消散，

that the lines of tribe shall soon dissolve,

部落间的界线将会很快消失，

that, as the world grows smaller, our common humanity shall reveal itself."

随着这个世界越发变小，我们集体的人性自会彰显。”

So, I look forward to working with the TED community

我期待着与TED社区一同努力

to hear about your ideas about how to fulfill this wish,

倾听大家关于如何来完成这个愿望的意见，

and in collaborating with you,

以及与大家合作，

hasten the day that that visionary statement can become a reality.

来促使这描述成真的那一天到来。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）