100 solutions to reverse global warming | Chad Frischmann

翻译人员: jacks peng 校对人员: Bighead Ge

Hello.

你们好！

I'd like to introduce you to a word you may never have heard before,

我想向你们介绍一个 你们过去可能从未听过，

but you ought to know:

但应该知道的词语：

drawdown.

递减减排。

Drawdown is a new way of thinking about and acting on global warming.

递减减排是思考和应对全球变暖的 一种新思路。

It's a goal for a future that we want,

这是一个目标， 通向我们想要的未来，

a future where reversing global warming is possible.

一个有可能逆转全球变暖的未来。

Drawdown is that point in time

递减减排是大气层中

when atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases begin to decline

温室气体开始逐年下降

on a year-to-year basis.

的那个时间点。

More simply, it's that point

简单来说，是那个

when we take out more greenhouse gases than we put into Earth's atmosphere.

我们从大气层中除去的温室气体 大于我们排入的节点。

Now, I know we're all concerned about climate change,

如今，我知道我们都担忧气候变化，

but climate change is not the problem.

但气候变化本身不是问题。

Climate change is the expression of the problem.

气候变化是问题的表象。

It's the feedback of the system of the planet telling us what's going on.

这是地球生态告诉我们 正在发生什么的信号。

The problem is global warming,

真正的问题是全球变暖，

provoked by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases

是来自温室气体浓度的增加，

caused by human activity.

这都来自人类的行为。

So how do we solve the problem?

那么我们如何解决这个问题？

How do we begin the process of reversing global warming?

我们如何开始逆转全球变暖？

The only way we know how is to draw down,

我们知道的唯一方法是递减减排，

to avoid putting greenhouse gases up

避免排放温室气体

and to pull down what's already there.

并把已经存在的温室气体降下来。

I know.

我知道。

Given the current situation, it sounds impossible,

鉴于目前形势，这听起来不可能，

but humanity already knows what to do.

但人类已经知道该怎么做了。

We have real, workable technologies and practices

我们有真正，可行的技术和实践

that can achieve drawdown.

可以实现递减减排。

And it's already happening.

并且这已经在发生了。

What we need is to accelerate implementation

我们需要的是加速实施，

and to change the discourse

并把话语权

from one of fear and confusion, which only leads to apathy,

从只会导致冷漠的恐惧和混乱中 解放出来，

to one of understanding and possibility,

达到一种理解和可能，

and, therefore, opportunity.

进而抓住机遇。

I work for an organization called Project Drawdown.

我为一个叫“递减减排项目” 的组织工作。

And for the last four years,

在过去4年中，

together with a team of researchers and writers from all over the world,

与来自全球各地的研究者和 作家团队一起，

we have mapped, measured and detailed

我们已经绘制，测量和详细制定了

100 solutions to reversing global warming.

100种扭逆转全球变暖的 解决方案。

Eighty already exist today,

其中80种已存在于生活中，

and when taken together, those 80 can achieve drawdown.

当一起实施时， 这80个方案就可以实现减排。

And 20 are coming attractions, solutions on the pipeline,

还有20个方案即将推出， 或在酝酿中，

and when they come online,

当它们上线时，

will speed up our progress.

会加快我们的进程。

These are solutions

这些解决方案

that are viable, scalable and financially feasible.

是可行的、可扩展的、 经济上允许的。

And they do one or more of three things:

它们能做下面三件事情中的 一件或多件：

replace existing fossil fuel-based energy generation with clean, renewable sources;

用清洁、可再生的能源取代 现有的化石燃料发电；

reduce consumption through technological efficiency

通过技术效率和行为改变

and behavior change;

降低消耗；

and to biosequester carbon in our plants' biomass and soil

通过我们在小学里学到的 光合作用的魔力，

through a process we all learn in grade school,

将碳封存在我们植物的生物量

the magic of photosynthesis.

和土壤中。

It's through a combination of these three mechanisms

这三种机制的结合

that drawdown becomes possible.

使得递减减排成为可能。

So how do we get there?

那么我们如何实现？

Well, here's the short answer.

这里有份简短的答案。

This is a list of the top 20 solutions to reversing global warming.

这是逆转全球变暖的 20大解决方案清单。

Now, I'll go into some detail,

现在，我将详细介绍一下，

but take a few seconds to look over the list.

但请花几秒钟看看这份清单。

It's eclectic, I know,

这上面什么都有，我知道，

from onshore wind turbines to educating girls,

从陆上风力涡轮机到女性教育，

from plant-rich diets to rooftop solar technology.

从植物为主的饮食到 屋顶太阳能技术。

So let's break it down a little bit.

我们把它们分解一下。

To the right of the slide, you'll see figures in gigatons,

在幻灯片的右边， 你会看到以10亿为单位的数字。

or billions of tons.

或者10亿吨。

That represents the total equivalent carbon dioxide

这代表大气层中减少的二氧化碳总量

reduced from the atmosphere

若这些解决方案 在全球部署超过30年。

when the solution is implemented globally over a 30-year period.

Now, when we think about climate solutions,

如今，当我们想到气候解决方案，

we often think about electricity generation.

我们常常想到发电问题。

We think of renewable energy as the most important set of solutions,

我们认为可再生能源是 最重要的解决方案，

and they are incredibly important.

它们的确非常重要。

But the first thing to notice about this list

但在这份清单中需要注意的 首要事情是

is that only five of the top 20 solutions relate to electricity.

前20个解决方案中只有 5个跟电力有关。

What surprised us, honestly,

老实说，让我们吃惊的是，

was that eight of the top 20 relate to the food system.

20大解决方案中 有8个跟食物系统有关。

The climate impact of food may come as a surprise to many people,

食物对气候的影响 可能出乎多数人预料，

but what these results show is that the decisions we make every day

但这些结果显示我们每天

about the food we produce, purchase and consume

在生产，购买和 消费什么食物上的决定

are perhaps the most important contributions

可能是个人可以对扭转全球变暖

every individual can make to reversing global warming.

能做的最重要贡献。

And how we manage land is also very important.

我们如何管理土地也非常重要。

Protecting forests and wetlands

保护森林和湿地，

safeguards, expands and creates new carbon sinks

扩大和创造新的碳吸存（碳汇）

that directly draw down carbon.

可以直接减少碳。

This is how drawdown can happen.

这就是递减减排可以发生的方式。

And when we take food and land management together,

当我们把食物和土地管理放一起时，

12 of the top 20 solutions relate to how and why we use land.

前20大解决方案中有12个跟我们 如何和为什么使用土地有关。

This fundamentally shifts traditional thinking on climate solutions.

这根本上逆转了 对气候解决方案的传统思考。

But let's go to the top of the list,

但让我们回到清单的顶部，

because I think what's there may also surprise you.

因为我觉得这些会让你们感到惊讶。

The single most impactful solution,

根据分析，

according to this analysis, would be refrigeration management,

最有影响力的解决方案是制冷管理，

or properly managing and disposing of hydrofluorocarbons, also known as HFCs,

也就是妥善管理、处理氢氟烃(HFCs)，

which are used by refrigerators and air conditioners to cool the air.

冰箱和空调用其冷却空气。

We did a great job with the Montreal Protocol

我们在《蒙特利尔议定书》上 做得很好，

to limit the production of chlorofluorocarbons, CFCs,

限制了氯氟烃(CFCs)的生产，

because of their effect on the ozone layer.

因为它们对臭氧层的影响。

But they were replaced by HFCs,

但是它们被HFCs取代了，

which are hundreds to thousands of times more potent a greenhouse gas

其温室气体的强度是二氧化碳的

than carbon dioxide.

几十万倍。

And that 90 gigatons reduced is a conservative figure.

减少900亿吨都是保守数字。

If we were to account for the impact of the Kigali agreement of 2016,

如果我们考虑进2016年 《基加利协议》的影响，

which calls for the phaseout of hydrofluorocarbons

这个协议要求逐步淘汰 氢氟碳化合物，

and replace them with natural refrigerants, which exist today,

以目前存在的天然制冷剂取代之，

this number could increase to 120, to nearly 200 gigatons

这个数字可能会增加1200亿吨， 总共减少温室气体排放

of avoided greenhouse gases.

接近2000亿吨。

Maybe you're surprised, as we were.

可能你被惊讶到了， 就如我们过去一样。

Now, before going into some details of specific solutions,

现在，在看具体解决方案的细节前，

you may be wondering how we came to these calculations.

你可能好奇 我们是怎么算出这些数字的。

Well, first of all, we collected a lot of data,

首先，我们收集了大量的数据，

and we used statistical analysis to create ranges

我们使用统计分析来创建范围，

that allow us to choose reasonable choices

使我们能够为整个模型中的每个输入

for every input used throughout the models.

选择合理的选项。

And we chose a conservative approach, which underlies the entire project.

我们选择了保守的方法， 这是整个项目的基础。

All that data is entered in the model,

那些数据进入模型，

ambitiously but plausibly projected into the future,

大胆但合理地预测未来，

and compared against what we would have to do anyway.

并与我们之前要做的对比。

The 84 gigatons reduced from onshore wind turbines, for example,

例如，使用陆上风力涡轮机 所减少的840亿吨，

results from the electricity generated from wind farms

是因为用风力发电厂发电，

that would otherwise be produced from coal or gas-fired plants.

这些电先前由燃煤或燃气发电产生。

We calculate all the costs to build and to operate the plants

我们计算建造和运营这些工厂的 所有成本，

and all the emissions generated.

以及所有产生的排放。

The same process is used to compare recycling versus landfilling,

同样的过程被用来比较回收和填埋，

regenerative versus industrial agriculture,

再生农业与工业化农业，

protecting versus cutting down our forests.

保护与砍伐森林。

The results are then integrated within and across systems

然后在系统内部和 跨系统整合结果，

to avoid double-counting

以避免重复计数

and add it up to see if we actually get to drawdown.

并把它们加起来看能不能实现减排。

OK, let's go into some specific solutions.

好了，让我们看一看 具体的解决方案。

Rooftop solar comes in ranked number 10.

屋顶太阳能排在第10位。

When we picture rooftop solar in our minds

当我们在脑海中想象太阳能屋顶时，

we often envision a warehouse in Miami covered in solar panels.

我们经常想象一个位于迈阿密的仓库， 屋顶覆盖着太阳能电池板。

But these are solutions that are relevant in urban and rural settings,

但这些解决方案同样适用于 我们的城市和农村环境，

high and low-income countries,

高和低收入国家，

and they have cascading benefits.

而且他们具有连锁效应。

This is a family on a straw island in Lake Titicaca

这是一个在喀喀湖稻草岛上的家庭

receiving their first solar panel.

他们收到的第一块太阳能电池板。

Before, kerosene was used for cooking and lighting,

以前，稻草岛上人们用煤油

kerosene on a straw island.

来做饭和照明。

So by installing solar, this family is not only helping to reduce emissions,

所以通过安装太阳能， 这个家庭不仅减少了排放，

but providing safety and security for their household.

而且也为他们的房屋 提供了安全保障。

And tropical forests tell their own story.

热带森林的故事则是另外一番景象。

Protecting currently degraded land in the tropics

保护热带地区目前退化的土地，

and allowing natural regeneration to occur

允许自然再生

is the number five solution to reversing global warming.

是逆转全球变暖的第五个解决方案。

We can think of trees as giant sticks of carbon.

我们可以把树林看作巨大的碳棒。

This is drawdown in action every year,

碳可以通过光合作用从大气中去除，

as carbon is removed from the atmosphere through photosynthesis,

将二氧化碳转化为植物的生物量 和土壤有机碳，

which converts carbon dioxide to plants' biomass and soil organic carbon.

碳的消耗每年都在减少。

And we need to rethink how we produce our food

我们需要重新思考我们如何生产食物

to make it more regenerative.

让它更加“可再生”。

There are many ways to do this, and we researched over 13 of them,

有很多方法可以做到这一点， 我们研究了其中的13种，

but these aren't new ways of producing food.

这些其实都不是生产食物的新方法。

They have been practiced for centuries, for generations.

它们已经被实践了几个世纪，几代人。

But they are increasingly displaced by modern agriculture,

但它们正日益被现代农业取代，

which promotes tillage, monocropping

现代农业促进了机械耕作、单一作物制，

and the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides which degrade the land

用合成化肥和杀虫剂， 从而导致土地退化，

and turn it into a net emitter of greenhouse gases.

并把它变成了温室气体的排放源。

Regenerative agriculture, on the other hand,

在另一方面，可再生农业，

restores soil health and productivity,

恢复土壤健康和生产力，

increases yield,

增加粮食产量，

improves water retention,

提高保水性，

benefits smallholder farmers and large farming operations alike

使小农和大型农业经营同样受益，

and brings carbon back to the land.

并将碳带回土地。

It's a win-win-win-win-win.

这个结果是赢-赢-赢-赢-赢。

(Laughter)

（笑声）

And it's not just how we produce food,

对全球变暖的巨大影响

but what we consume

不仅与我们如何生产食物有关，

that has a massive impact on global warming.

还包括我们怎么消费食物。

A plant-rich diet is not a vegan or a vegetarian diet,

植物性饮食不是严格素食或素食节食，

though I applaud any who make those choices.

尽管我赞赏那些做出这些选择的人。

It's a healthy diet in terms of how much we consume,

就我们的食用量而言， 这是一种健康的饮食，

and particularly how much meat is consumed.

尤其在摄入的肉类数量方面。

In the richer parts of the world,

在全球最富裕的地方，

we overconsume.

我们常常摄入过多。

However, low-income countries

然而，低收入国家

show an insufficient caloric and protein intake.

则显示热量和蛋白质摄入不足。

That needs rebalancing,

这需要再平衡，

and it's in the rebalancing

它正在再平衡中。

that a plant-rich diet becomes the number four solution

植物性饮食成为逆转全球变暖的

to reversing global warming.

第四个解决方案。

Moreover, approximately a third of all food produced is not eaten,

此外，大约1/3被生产的食物 没有被吃完，

and wasted food emits an astounding eight percent of global greenhouse gases.

被浪费的食物排放出令人震惊的 全球8%的温室气体。

We need to look where across the supply chain

我们需要审视整个供应链

these losses and wastage occurs.

这些损耗和浪费发生在哪里。

In low-income countries, after food leaves the farm,

在低收入国家，在食物离开农场后，

most food is wasted early in the supply chain

大部分食物浪费在供应链的早期，

due to infrastructure and storage challenges.

这归咎于基础设施和存储的不足。

Food is not wasted by consumers in low-income countries

挣扎着喂饱其人口的低收入国家：

which struggle to feed their population.

食物不是被消费者浪费的。

In the developed world, instead, after food leaves the farm,

在发达国家，情况恰恰相反： 食物离开农场后，

most food is wasted at the end of the supply chain

大部分食物被供应链终端的

by markets and consumers,

市场和消费者浪费了，

and wasted food ends up in the landfill

浪费的食物被丢进垃圾填埋场，

where it emits methane

在那里分解时

as it decomposes.

排放出甲烷。

This is a consumer choice problem.

这是一个消费者选择问题。

It's not a technology issue.

这不是技术问题。

Preventing food waste from the beginning

从一开始就阻止食物浪费

is the number three solution.

是第三个解决方案。

But here's the interesting thing.

但这里有个有趣的事情。

When we look at the food system as a whole

当我们把整个食物系统当作整体去看，

and we implement all the production solutions

实施像可再生农业那样的

like regenerative agriculture,

生产解决方案，

and we adopt a plant-rich diet,

采取植物性饮食，

and we reduce food waste,

并减少食物浪费时，

our research shows that we would produce enough food on current farmland

我们的研究发现我们可以在 现有的农田上生产足够食物

to feed the world's growing population a healthy, nutrient-rich diet

提供健康而营养丰富的饮食 从现在到2050年及以后

now until 2050 and beyond.

喂饱全球不断增长的人口。

That means we don't need to cut down forests for food production.

这意味着我们不需要砍伐森林 来生产食物。

The solutions to reversing global warming are the same solutions to food insecurity.

逆转全球变暖的解决方案也正是 保障食品安全的解决方案。

Now, a solution that often does not get talked enough about,

有一个解决方案经常被人们忽视，

family planning.

计划生育。

By providing men and women the right to choose

通过为男性和女性提供选择权，

when, how and if to raise a family

来选择何时，如何，是否养育家庭

through reproductive health clinics and education,

通过建立生殖健康诊所、 生殖教育、

access to contraception

获得避孕产品

and freedom devoid of persecution

和不受迫害的自由，

can reduce the estimated global population by 2050.

可以减少2050年的预期全球人口。

That reduced population means reduced demand

人口的减少意味着对

for electricity, food, travel, buildings and all other resources.

电力，食物，旅行，建筑 和其他资源需求的减少。

All the energy and emissions

所有来满足原本高需求

that are used to produce that higher demand

而生产的能源和排放， 因此可以减少，

is reduced by providing the basic human right

只需提供基本人权，来选择何时， 如何及是否

to choose when, how and if to raise a family.

养育家庭。

But family planning cannot happen without equal quality of education

但计划生育无法真正实现，

若目前无法上学的女孩 没有接受同等质量教育的机会。

to girls currently being denied access.

Now, we've taken a small liberty here,

现在，有点冒昧地在这说一下，

because the impact of universal education

因为普及教育

and family planning resources

和计划生育的影响

are so inextricably intertwined

是如此不可分割地交织在一起，

that we chose to cut it right down the middle.

以致我们选择将其一分为二。

But taken together, educating girls and family planning

但总的来说，教育女性和计划生育

is the number one solution to reversing global warming,

是逆转全球变暖的第一个解决方案，

reducing approximately 120 billion tons of greenhouse gases.

可减少大约1200亿吨温室气体。

So is drawdown possible?

所以递减减排是可能的？

The answer is yes, it is possible,

答案是肯定的，是可能的。

but we need all 80 solutions.

但我们需要所有这80个解决方案。

There are no silver bullets or a subset of solutions

没有灵丹妙药或单靠里面几个

that are going to get us there.

就能让我们实现那个目标。

The top solutions would take us far along the pathway,

最靠前的解决方案可以让 我们延着这条路走得很远，

but there's no such thing as a small solution.

但没有任何一个解决方案 可以被忽略的，

We need all 80.

我们需要所有的80个。

But here's the great thing.

但有件事很棒。

We would want to implement these solutions

我们需要实施的这些解决方案，

whether or not global warming was even a problem,

不管全球变暖是不是个问题，

because they have cascading benefits to human and planetary well-being.

因为它们对人类和地球的福祉 有连锁反应。

Renewable electricity results in clean, abundant access to energy for all.

可再生电力为所有人 提供了清洁、丰富的能源。

A plant-rich diet, reduced food waste

植物性饮食，减少食物浪费

results in a healthy global population with enough food and sustenance.

带来有足够食物和营养的全球健康人口。

Family planning and educating girls?

计划生育和女性教育？

This is about human rights,

这跟人权有关，

about gender equality.

跟性别平等有关。

This is about economic improvement and the freedom of choice.

这是事关经济改善和选择自由。

It's about justice.

这事关公正。

Regenerative agriculture, managed grazing, agroforestry, silvopasture

再生农业，管理放牧， 农林复合，森林保护

restores soil health, benefits farmers

恢复土壤健康，造福农民

and brings carbon back to the land.

并把碳带回土地。

Protecting our ecosystems also protects biodiversity

保护我们的生态系统 也就保护了生物多样性

and safeguards planetary health

和保护了地球健康

and the oxygen that we breathe.

以及我们所呼吸的空气。

Its tangible benefits to all species are incalculable.

它对所有物种的有形利益 是不可估量的。

But one last point, because I know it's probably on everybody's mind;

但最后一点， 因为我知道大家可能都在想

how much is this going to cost?

这需要花费多少成本？

Well, we estimate that to implement all 80 solutions

我们估算实施所有80个解决方案

would cost about 29 trillion dollars over 30 years.

需要在30年中花费29万亿美元。

That's just about a trillion a year.

每年只需要1万亿美元。

Now, I know that sounds like a lot,

我知道这个数字听起来很大，

but we have to remember that global GDP is over 80 trillion every year,

但我们需要记得全球每年的 GDP超过80万亿美元，

and the estimated savings from implementing these solutions

并且实施这些解决方案 带来的估计节省

is 74 trillion dollars, over double the costs.

是74万亿美元，是成本的两倍多。

That's a net savings of 44 trillion dollars.

净节省44万亿美元。

So drawdown is possible.

所以递减减排是可行的。

We can do it if we want to.

只要我们想做就能做到。

It's not going to cost that much, and the return on that investment is huge.

不需要花费那么高的成本， 投资的回报确是巨大的。

Here's the welcome surprise.

这是一个受欢迎的惊喜。

When we implement these solutions,

当我们实施这些解决方案，

we shift the way we do business

我们把做生意的方式

from a system that is inherently exploitative and extractive

从一个本质上是剥削和榨取的系统

to a new normal that is by nature restorative and regenerative.

转移到一个新的天然的 具有恢复性和可再生新常态系统。

We need to rethink our global goals,

我们需要重新思考我们的全球目标，

to move beyond sustainability

去超越可持续性，

towards regeneration,

走向再生，

and along the way reverse global warming.

并在此过程中逆转全球变暖。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）