100 solutions to reverse global warming | Chad Frischmann

譯者: Regina Chu 審譯者: Marssi Draw

Hello.

大家好。

I'd like to introduce you to a word you may never have heard before,

我想跟大家介紹一個新字， 你們可能從來沒聽過，

but you ought to know:

但是你們應該要知道：

drawdown.

遞降。

Drawdown is a new way of thinking about and acting on global warming.

遞降是思考及應對全球暖化的新方法。

It's a goal for a future that we want,

這是個目標，為了實現我們期許的未來，

a future where reversing global warming is possible.

在這個未來，逆轉全球暖化是可能的。

Drawdown is that point in time

遞降就是在某一個時間點

when atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases begin to decline

大氣中的溫室氣體濃度開始降低，

on a year-to-year basis.

而且是逐年降低。

More simply, it's that point

更簡單的說，就是那個時間點

when we take out more greenhouse gases than we put into Earth's atmosphere.

我們從地球大氣除去的溫室氣體量

比排放進去的還多。

Now, I know we're all concerned about climate change,

我知道我們都很關心氣候變遷，

but climate change is not the problem.

但是氣候變遷不是問題所在。

Climate change is the expression of the problem.

氣候變遷只是問題的表象。

It's the feedback of the system of the planet telling us what's going on.

它是地球告訴我們 情況到底如何的回饋系統。

The problem is global warming,

真正的問題是全球暖化──

provoked by the increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases

被溫室氣體濃度增加而引發，

caused by human activity.

而此增加來自人類的活動。

So how do we solve the problem?

所以我們要如何解決這個問題？

How do we begin the process of reversing global warming?

我們要如何開始逆轉全球暖化？

The only way we know how is to draw down,

我們所知唯一的方法 就是慢慢往下降，

to avoid putting greenhouse gases up

避免排放更多的溫室氣體，

and to pull down what's already there.

並降低已有的量。

I know.

我知道。

Given the current situation, it sounds impossible,

以目前的狀況來看， 這聽起來像天方夜譚，

but humanity already knows what to do.

但是人類早已知道該如何做。

We have real, workable technologies and practices

我們有實際可行的科技及方法

that can achieve drawdown.

可以做到遞降。

And it's already happening.

而且已經發生了。

What we need is to accelerate implementation

我們需要的是加速實施，

and to change the discourse

並改變因恐懼及困惑而產生的論述，

from one of fear and confusion, which only leads to apathy,

──因為這些只會造成漠不關心──

to one of understanding and possibility,

把這些論述改變成了解及可能性，

and, therefore, opportunity.

進而造成機會。

I work for an organization called Project Drawdown.

我為一個名為遞降計畫的組織工作。

And for the last four years,

在過去四年，

together with a team of researchers and writers from all over the world,

我們與一個由來自全世界的 研究員及作家組成的團隊合作，

we have mapped, measured and detailed

我們繪製、測量及詳述

100 solutions to reversing global warming.

一百個解決方案以逆轉全球暖化。

Eighty already exist today,

今天有八十個已經存在，

and when taken together, those 80 can achieve drawdown.

這八十個合起來已經可以達標。

And 20 are coming attractions, solutions on the pipeline,

另外二十個則是正在開發的 吸睛解決方案，

and when they come online,

它們開始運作後，

will speed up our progress.

就會加速我們的進程。

These are solutions

這些解決方案

that are viable, scalable and financially feasible.

可行、可擴展、在經濟上可行。

And they do one or more of three things:

它們能做到下面三項中至少一項：

replace existing fossil fuel-based energy generation with clean, renewable sources;

用清潔、可再生的資源 取代既有的石化燃料能源；

reduce consumption through technological efficiency

藉由科技效率及行為改變 降低石化能源消耗量；

and behavior change;

and to biosequester carbon in our plants' biomass and soil

用生物碳封存，

將碳固封在植物的生物質及土壤中，

through a process we all learn in grade school,

這使用一種我們在小學 就學過的過程，

the magic of photosynthesis.

神奇的光合作用。

It's through a combination of these three mechanisms

透過這三種機制的組合，

that drawdown becomes possible.

遞降成為可能。

So how do we get there?

所以我們要怎麼做到？

Well, here's the short answer.

這裡是簡答。

This is a list of the top 20 solutions to reversing global warming.

這個表上列的是前二十種 能逆轉全球暖化的方法。

Now, I'll go into some detail,

我會解釋一下細節，

but take a few seconds to look over the list.

但是先花幾秒鐘來看一下這個列表。

It's eclectic, I know,

這個表五花八門，我知道。

from onshore wind turbines to educating girls,

從陸上風力發電到教育女童，

from plant-rich diets to rooftop solar technology.

從以植物為主的飲食 到屋頂上的太陽能技術。

So let's break it down a little bit.

我們稍微分開看一下。

To the right of the slide, you'll see figures in gigatons,

在幻燈片的右方，

你會看到以吉噸為單位的數字，

or billions of tons.

或稱十億噸。

That represents the total equivalent carbon dioxide

那代表二氧化碳

reduced from the atmosphere

從大氣層減少的總當量，

when the solution is implemented globally over a 30-year period.

只要我們能在三十年內 在全球實行這些方法。

Now, when we think about climate solutions,

在我們思考氣候解決方法時，

we often think about electricity generation.

我們常想到發電。

We think of renewable energy as the most important set of solutions,

我們認為可再生能源 是最重要的一套解決方法，

and they are incredibly important.

的確，這套方法極為重要。

But the first thing to notice about this list

但是在這個單子上第一眼會看到的，

is that only five of the top 20 solutions relate to electricity.

是前二十項方法中 只有五個與電力有關。

What surprised us, honestly,

說真的，我們也非常驚訝

was that eight of the top 20 relate to the food system.

在前二十項中， 有八個跟糧食體系有關。

The climate impact of food may come as a surprise to many people,

氣候會影響糧食 可能會讓很多人吃驚，

but what these results show is that the decisions we make every day

但是這些研究的結果顯示，

我們每天對生產、購買 及消費的糧食所做的決定，

about the food we produce, purchase and consume

are perhaps the most important contributions

大概是每個人可以 做出的最重要的貢獻

every individual can make to reversing global warming.

以逆轉全球暖化。

And how we manage land is also very important.

我們如何管理土地也很重要。

Protecting forests and wetlands

保護森林及濕地

safeguards, expands and creates new carbon sinks

可以保障、擴張及創造新的碳匯，

that directly draw down carbon.

直接把碳吸入封存。

This is how drawdown can happen.

這就是遞降可以發生的方式。

And when we take food and land management together,

如果我們將糧食 及土地管理放在一起，

12 of the top 20 solutions relate to how and why we use land.

前二十項中有十二項

與我們如何及為什麼使用土地有關。

This fundamentally shifts traditional thinking on climate solutions.

這會從根本轉變我們 對氣候解決方法的傳統思維。

But let's go to the top of the list,

但是讓我們看一下清單上方。

because I think what's there may also surprise you.

因為我認為那裡的項目 也會使你們驚訝。

The single most impactful solution,

最有影響力的解決方法，

according to this analysis, would be refrigeration management,

照這份分析來看是冰箱管理，

or properly managing and disposing of hydrofluorocarbons, also known as HFCs,

或說是妥善管理及處置 氫氟碳化物，又稱 HFCs，

which are used by refrigerators and air conditioners to cool the air.

用於冰箱及空調以冷卻空氣。

We did a great job with the Montreal Protocol

我們在《蒙特婁議定書》上做得很好，

to limit the production of chlorofluorocarbons, CFCs,

限制了氟氯碳化物 CFCs 的產量，

because of their effect on the ozone layer.

因為它們對臭氧層會產生影響。

But they were replaced by HFCs,

但是這些化合物被 HFCs 取代，

which are hundreds to thousands of times more potent a greenhouse gas

而其溫室氣體效應， 比二氧化碳強千百倍。

than carbon dioxide.

And that 90 gigatons reduced is a conservative figure.

那個 90 吉噸的減少量 還是個保守的數字。

If we were to account for the impact of the Kigali agreement of 2016,

如果我們能把 2016 年 《吉佳利修正案》的影響一起計入，

which calls for the phaseout of hydrofluorocarbons

這個修正案要逐步削減氫氟碳化物，

and replace them with natural refrigerants, which exist today,

並以現今存在的天然冷媒取代，

this number could increase to 120, to nearly 200 gigatons

那麼這個數字還可以 增加到 120 至 200 吉噸

of avoided greenhouse gases.

可避免排放的溫室氣體。

Maybe you're surprised, as we were.

或許你會很驚訝， 就像我們之前一樣。

Now, before going into some details of specific solutions,

在我們進一步探討 特定解決方案的細節之前，

you may be wondering how we came to these calculations.

你們可能會想知道 這些數字是怎麼算出來的。

Well, first of all, we collected a lot of data,

首先，我們收集很多數據，

and we used statistical analysis to create ranges

我們也用統計分析算出全距，

that allow us to choose reasonable choices

讓我們能選出合理的選擇

for every input used throughout the models.

輸入給各個模型使用。

And we chose a conservative approach, which underlies the entire project.

我們選了保守的方法， 這是整個計畫的基礎。

All that data is entered in the model,

所有的數據都輸入模型中，

ambitiously but plausibly projected into the future,

非常大膽但合理的預測未來，

and compared against what we would have to do anyway.

並與我們本來會做的比較。

The 84 gigatons reduced from onshore wind turbines, for example,

舉例來說，因陸上風力發電 而減量的 84 吉噸，

results from the electricity generated from wind farms

是因為用風力發電廠發電，

that would otherwise be produced from coal or gas-fired plants.

不然，用煤或瓦斯的火力發電廠 就會排放出那麼多的量。

We calculate all the costs to build and to operate the plants

我們計算要興建及運轉 電廠所需的費用，

and all the emissions generated.

及所有產生出的排放物。

The same process is used to compare recycling versus landfilling,

同樣的方法也拿來比較回收與掩埋，

regenerative versus industrial agriculture,

再生與工業化農業，

protecting versus cutting down our forests.

保護與砍伐森林。

The results are then integrated within and across systems

然後把結果整合於系統內及跨系統，

to avoid double-counting

以避免重複計算，

and add it up to see if we actually get to drawdown.

並加起來看我們是否真的達到遞降。

OK, let's go into some specific solutions.

好，我們現在就來看某些解決方法。

Rooftop solar comes in ranked number 10.

屋頂上的太陽能裝置排第十。

When we picture rooftop solar in our minds

當我們想到屋頂上的太陽能裝置，

we often envision a warehouse in Miami covered in solar panels.

我們通常會想像一座位在邁阿密 被太陽能板蓋住的倉庫。

But these are solutions that are relevant in urban and rural settings,

但是這些解決方案可以用在城鄉，

high and low-income countries,

也可以用在高或低收入國家，

and they have cascading benefits.

而且還有串聯的好處。

This is a family on a straw island in Lake Titicaca

這是住在的的喀喀湖上 一座稻草小島上的家庭

receiving their first solar panel.

接收他們第一塊太陽能板。

Before, kerosene was used for cooking and lighting,

這之前，他們要用煤油 來煮飯及點燈，

kerosene on a straw island.

在稻草小島上用煤油。

So by installing solar, this family is not only helping to reduce emissions,

裝了太陽能板後， 這個家庭不但幫助減排，

but providing safety and security for their household.

還為他們的家庭提供安全及保障。

And tropical forests tell their own story.

熱帶森林不言自明。

Protecting currently degraded land in the tropics

保護目前在熱帶退化的土地

and allowing natural regeneration to occur

並允許自然再生，

is the number five solution to reversing global warming.

是逆轉全球暖化的第五項解決方案。

We can think of trees as giant sticks of carbon.

我們可以把樹想成超大的碳棒。

This is drawdown in action every year,

這是每年都在運作的遞降，

as carbon is removed from the atmosphere through photosynthesis,

因為光合作用把碳從大氣層中移去，

which converts carbon dioxide to plants' biomass and soil organic carbon.

把二氧化碳轉成 植物生質及土壤有機碳。

And we need to rethink how we produce our food

而且我們必須重新思考 要如何生產糧食，

to make it more regenerative.

讓糧食生產更具再生性。

There are many ways to do this, and we researched over 13 of them,

有很多方法可以達到這點， 我們研究了超過 13 種，

but these aren't new ways of producing food.

但是這些都不是生產糧食的新方法。

They have been practiced for centuries, for generations.

這些都早已行之有年，世世代代。

But they are increasingly displaced by modern agriculture,

但是這些方法 正逐漸被現代農法取代，

which promotes tillage, monocropping

現代農法鼓吹整地、單一作物，

and the use of synthetic fertilizers and pesticides which degrade the land

並使用合成肥料及農藥， 而這兩者都會使土地退化，

and turn it into a net emitter of greenhouse gases.

把它變成溫室氣體的淨排放者。

Regenerative agriculture, on the other hand,

另一方面，再生農業

restores soil health and productivity,

恢復土壤健康及生產力、

increases yield,

增加產量、

improves water retention,

增進保水力、

benefits smallholder farmers and large farming operations alike

造福小農，大型農業經營也一樣，

and brings carbon back to the land.

並把碳帶回土壤中。

It's a win-win-win-win-win.

這可是贏—贏—贏—贏—贏啊！

(Laughter)

（笑聲）

And it's not just how we produce food,

不僅僅是我們如何生產糧食，

but what we consume

我們消費什麼

that has a massive impact on global warming.

也對全球暖化造成巨大影響。

A plant-rich diet is not a vegan or a vegetarian diet,

以植物為主的膳食 不是純素食也不是蔬食，

though I applaud any who make those choices.

然而我還是要給 做出這些選擇的人鼓鼓掌。

It's a healthy diet in terms of how much we consume,

那是健康的膳食，就我們吃的量，

and particularly how much meat is consumed.

尤其是我們吃多少肉的量而論。

In the richer parts of the world,

在這個世界比較富有的地方，

we overconsume.

我們都吃過多。

However, low-income countries

然而在低收入國家，

show an insufficient caloric and protein intake.

卻顯示卡路里及蛋白質攝取不足。

That needs rebalancing,

這現象需要重新平衡一下，

and it's in the rebalancing

也就是在重新平衡中，

that a plant-rich diet becomes the number four solution

以植物為主的膳食 成為第四項解決方案

to reversing global warming.

以逆轉全球暖化。

Moreover, approximately a third of all food produced is not eaten,

此外，所有生產的糧食 大約有三分之一不是被吃掉，

and wasted food emits an astounding eight percent of global greenhouse gases.

浪費的食物排放出的溫室氣體 相當驚人，佔全球的 8％。

We need to look where across the supply chain

我們必須全面檢視供應鏈，

these losses and wastage occurs.

看看哪裡產生了這樣的損失及浪費。

In low-income countries, after food leaves the farm,

在低收入國家，糧食離開農場後，

most food is wasted early in the supply chain

大多食物在供應鏈前端就浪費掉了，

due to infrastructure and storage challenges.

因為基礎設施和儲存條件不好。

Food is not wasted by consumers in low-income countries

在低收入國家， 糧食不是被消費者浪費掉，

which struggle to feed their population.

因為這些國家本身 已經很難養活自己的國民。

In the developed world, instead, after food leaves the farm,

在已開發國家卻相反， 在食物離開農場後，

most food is wasted at the end of the supply chain

大部分食物是在供應鏈末端

被市場及消費者浪費掉，

by markets and consumers,

and wasted food ends up in the landfill

浪費的食物最終進到掩埋場，

where it emits methane

排放甲烷，

as it decomposes.

因食物腐化而產生。

This is a consumer choice problem.

這是消費者選擇的問題。

It's not a technology issue.

不是科技的問題。

Preventing food waste from the beginning

從頭避免糧食浪費

is the number three solution.

是第三項解決方案。

But here's the interesting thing.

但這裡有件很有意思的事。

When we look at the food system as a whole

當我們從整體來看糧食系統，

and we implement all the production solutions

並實施所有的生產解決方法，

like regenerative agriculture,

像是再生農業，

and we adopt a plant-rich diet,

採用以植物為主的膳食，

and we reduce food waste,

減少食物浪費，

our research shows that we would produce enough food on current farmland

我們的研究顯示，

我們可以在現有的農地上 生產足夠的糧食，

to feed the world's growing population a healthy, nutrient-rich diet

以餵飽世界不斷增長的人口，

提供健康、營養豐富的飲食，

now until 2050 and beyond.

從現在直到 2050 年還不止！

That means we don't need to cut down forests for food production.

這代表我們不需要 砍伐森林以生產糧食。

The solutions to reversing global warming are the same solutions to food insecurity.

逆轉全球暖化的方法 跟解決糧食安全的方法一樣。

Now, a solution that often does not get talked enough about,

現在要看的這個方法， 通常很少被提出討論，

family planning.

家庭計畫。

By providing men and women the right to choose

提供男性及女性選擇權，

when, how and if to raise a family

決定何時、如何或要不要生小孩，

through reproductive health clinics and education,

透過家庭計畫診所及教育

access to contraception

拿到避孕用品，

and freedom devoid of persecution

自由無迫害，

can reduce the estimated global population by 2050.

可以減少 2050 年的人口估計量。

That reduced population means reduced demand

減少的人口數代表需求也跟著減少，

for electricity, food, travel, buildings and all other resources.

如電力、糧食、運輸、 建築及其他資源。

All the energy and emissions

為了達到原本那麼高的需求 而生產的能量及排放量，

that are used to produce that higher demand

is reduced by providing the basic human right

都可以因此減量，

只要提供基本人權，

to choose when, how and if to raise a family.

能選擇何時、如何及要不要生小孩。

But family planning cannot happen without equal quality of education

但是家庭計畫要能實現，

唯有透過讓目前被禁止受教育的女生 得到同等的教育品質。

to girls currently being denied access.

Now, we've taken a small liberty here,

我們在這裡其實稍稍 自由發揮了一下，

because the impact of universal education

因為普及教育的影響力

and family planning resources

及家庭計畫資源

are so inextricably intertwined

是如此緊密交織，

that we chose to cut it right down the middle.

我們選擇給這兩項各一半的量。

But taken together, educating girls and family planning

但是加在一起看， 教育女童及家庭計畫

is the number one solution to reversing global warming,

是逆轉全球暖化的頭號解決方法，

reducing approximately 120 billion tons of greenhouse gases.

可以減少約 1200 億噸的溫室氣體。

So is drawdown possible?

所以遞降有可能嗎？

The answer is yes, it is possible,

答案是肯定的，的確有可能，

but we need all 80 solutions.

但我們需要全部八十項解決方法。

There are no silver bullets or a subset of solutions

我們沒有萬靈丹，或是部分解決方法

that are going to get us there.

可以幫助我們達到目標。

The top solutions would take us far along the pathway,

最上面的幾項解決方法 或許可以帶我們走夠遠的路，

but there's no such thing as a small solution.

但是真的沒有所謂的小型解決方案。

We need all 80.

那八十項我們全要。

But here's the great thing.

但是事情厲害的就在這。

We would want to implement these solutions

我們要實行所有的方法，

whether or not global warming was even a problem,

無論全球暖化是不是問題都一樣，

because they have cascading benefits to human and planetary well-being.

因為這些方法對人類 及地球的福祉有串聯的好處。

Renewable electricity results in clean, abundant access to energy for all.

用可再生電力的結果 是提供全人類乾淨充分的能源。

A plant-rich diet, reduced food waste

以植物為主的膳食減少糧食浪費，

results in a healthy global population with enough food and sustenance.

可使全球人口健康， 有足夠的食物及營養。

Family planning and educating girls?

家庭計畫及教育女童？

This is about human rights,

這是人權，

about gender equality.

是性別平等。

This is about economic improvement and the freedom of choice.

這是改善經濟及選擇的自由。

It's about justice.

這是正義。

Regenerative agriculture, managed grazing, agroforestry, silvopasture

再生農業、有管制的放牧、 混農林業、林地放牧

restores soil health, benefits farmers

可以恢復土壤健康，造福農夫，

and brings carbon back to the land.

並把碳帶回土地。

Protecting our ecosystems also protects biodiversity

保護我們的生態系 也保護了生物多樣化，

and safeguards planetary health

保障了地球健康，

and the oxygen that we breathe.

及我們呼吸的氧氣。

Its tangible benefits to all species are incalculable.

它對所有物種的實質益處 是無可計量的。

But one last point, because I know it's probably on everybody's mind;

只剩最後一點，

因為我知道每個人 心中大概都在想這件事，

how much is this going to cost?

這要花多少錢？

Well, we estimate that to implement all 80 solutions

我們估計要實施 全部八十項解決方法，

would cost about 29 trillion dollars over 30 years.

可能要在未來三十年 花約 29 兆美元。

That's just about a trillion a year.

一年僅需一兆。

Now, I know that sounds like a lot,

我知道那聽起來很多，

but we have to remember that global GDP is over 80 trillion every year,

但是我們要記得

每年全球的國內生產毛額 超過 80 兆美元，

and the estimated savings from implementing these solutions

而且預估從實施 這些解決方案而省下的錢

is 74 trillion dollars, over double the costs.

是 74 兆美元， 比花下去的還多不只一倍。

That's a net savings of 44 trillion dollars.

淨節約值是 44 兆美元。

So drawdown is possible.

所以遞降的確可能。

We can do it if we want to.

我們想做就做的到。

It's not going to cost that much, and the return on that investment is huge.

這不會花想像中的那麼多錢， 而投資報酬率極大。

Here's the welcome surprise.

這裡還有一個驚喜。

When we implement these solutions,

當我們實施了這些解決方案，

we shift the way we do business

我們就轉變了行商的方式，

from a system that is inherently exploitative and extractive

從一個本質上剝削和採掘的系統，

to a new normal that is by nature restorative and regenerative.

轉變到生性就是 恢復及再生的新常態。

We need to rethink our global goals,

我們需要重新思考我們的全球目標，

to move beyond sustainability

超越永續，

towards regeneration,

朝向再生，

and along the way reverse global warming.

並一路逆轉全球暖化。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）