How climate change could make our food less nutritious | Kristie Ebi

Prevodilac: Katarina Čolić Lektor: Ivana Krivokuća

Yogi Berra, a US baseball player and philosopher, said,

Jogi Bera, američki igrač bejzbola i filozof, rekao je:

"If we don't know where we're going, we might not get there."

„Ako ne znamo kuda idemo, možda tamo nećemo stići.“

Accumulating scientific knowledge is giving us greater insights,

Prikupljanje naučnog znanja nam daje bolji uvid

greater clarity, into what our future might look like in a changing climate

i jasniju sliku o tome kako bi izgledala naša budućnost dok se klima menja

and what that could mean for our health.

i šta to može značiti za naše zdravlje.

I'm here to talk about a related aspect,

Ovde sam da pričam u vezi s tim,

on how our emissions of greenhouse gases from burning of fossil fuels

o tome kako gasovi staklene bašte nastali sagorevanjem fosilnih goriva

is reducing the nutritional quality of our food.

smanjuju hranljivu vrednost hrane koju jedemo.

We'll start with the food pyramid.

Počnimo od piramide ishrane.

You all know the food pyramid.

Svima vam je poznata piramida ishrane.

We all need to eat a balanced diet.

Svi treba da se zdravo hranimo.

We need to get proteins,

Moramo da unosimo proteine,

we need to get micronutrients,

mikronutrijente,

we need to get vitamins.

vitamine.

And so, this is a way for us to think about

Ovo je jedan način razmišljanja o tome

how to make sure we get what we need every day

kako da se postaramo da dobijemo šta nam je potrebno svakog dana

so we can grow and thrive.

da rastemo i razvijamo se.

But we eat not just because we need to,

Ne hranimo se samo iz potrebe,

we also eat for enjoyment.

već i uživamo u tome.

Bread, pasta, pizza --

Hleb, pasta, pica -

there's a whole range of foods that are culturally important.

postoji toliko vrsta hrane koje su od kulturološke važnosti.

We enjoy eating these.

Uživamo da ih jedemo.

And so they're important for our diet,

Važne su za našu ishranu,

but they're also important for our cultures.

ali i za našu kulturu.

Carbon dioxide has been increasing since the start of the Industrial Revolution,

Nivo ugljen-dioksida raste od početka industrijske revolucije,

increasing from about 280 parts per million to over 410 today,

od 280 milionitih delova do 410, koliko ih ima danas,

and it continues to increase.

i nastavlja da raste.

The carbon that plants need to grow comes from this carbon dioxide.

Ugljenik potreban biljkama da rastu dolazi od ovog ugljen-dioksida.

They bring it into the plant,

On dolazi do biljke,

they break it apart into the carbon itself,

raspada se na samo ugljenik,

and they use that to grow.

a biljke ga koriste za rast.

They also need nutrients from the soil.

Takođe su im potrebne hranljive materije iz zemljišta.

And so yes, carbon dioxide is plant food.

Dakle, ugljen-dioksid je hrana za biljke.

And this should be good news, of rising carbon dioxide concentrations,

Trebalo bi da su ovo dobre vesti, da koncentracija ugljen-dioksida raste,

for food security around the world,

čime se obezbeđuje hrana širom sveta

making sure that people get enough to eat every day.

i pruža mogućnost ljudima da imaju dovoljno hrane svakog dana.

About 820 million people in the world don't get enough to eat every day.

Oko 820 miliona ljudi na svetu nema dovoljno hrane svakog dana.

So there's a fair amount written about how higher CO2

Postoji mnogo zapisa o tome kako će viši nivo ugljen-dioksida

is going to help with our food security problem.

pomoći u obezbeđivanju hrane.

We need to accelerate our progress in agricultural productivity

Potrebno je da ubrzamo napredak u produktivnosti u poljoprivredi

to feed the nine to 10 billion people who will be alive in 2050

kako bi se nahranilo 9 do 10 milijardi ljudi, koliko će ih biti 2050. godine,

and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals,

i kako bi se postigli ciljevi održivog razvoja,

particularly the Goal Number 2,

naročito cilj broj 2,

that is on reducing food insecurity,

koji se tiče problema obezbeđivanja hrane,

increasing nutrition,

poboljšanja ishrane,

increasing access to the foods that we need for everyone.

povećanja dostupnosti hrane koja je potrebna svima.

We know that climate change is affecting agricultural productivity.

Znamo da klimatske promene utiču na produktivnost u poljoprivredi.

The earth has warmed about one degree centigrade

Temperatura Zemlje je viša za 1 stepen

since preindustrial times.

u odnosu na preindustrijsko doba.

That is changing local temperature and precipitation patterns,

Ovime se menjaju lokalne temperature i količine padavina,

and that has consequences for the agricultural productivity

što utiče na produktivnost u poljoprivredi

in many parts of the world.

u mnogim delovima sveta.

And it's not just local changes in temperature and precipitation,

A ne radi se samo o lokalnim promenama u temperaturi i padavinama,

it's the extremes.

već i o ekstremnim slučajevima.

Extremes in terms of heat waves, floods and droughts

Esktremni su u vidu toplotnih talasa, poplava i suša,

are significantly affecting productivity.

a koji umnogome utiču na produktivnost.

And that carbon dioxide,

I taj ugljen-dioksid,

besides making plants grow,

osim što pomaže biljkama da rastu,

has other consequences as well,

takođe ima druge posledice po biljke,

that plants, when they have higher carbon dioxide,

a to je da one, kada dobijaju više ugljen-dioksida,

increase the synthesis of carbohydrates, sugars and starches,

povećavaju sintezu ugljenih hidrata, šećera i skroba,

and they decrease the concentrations of protein and critical nutrients.

a smanjuju koncentraciju proteina i vrlo bitnih hranljivih materija.

And this is very important for how we think about food security going forward.

Ovo je vrlo važno za naš dalji plan u vezi sa obezbeđivanjem hrane.

A couple of nights ago in the table talks on climate change,

Pre par večeri povela se priča o klimatskim promenama,

someone said that they're a five-sevenths optimist:

i neko je rekao da je optimista 5/7:

that they're an optimist five days of the week,

optimista 5 dana u nedelji,

and this is a topic for the other two days.

a ovo je tema za preostala dva dana.

When we think about micronutrients,

Kada se radi o mikronutrijentima,

almost all of them are affected by higher CO2 concentrations.

skoro na sve njih utiče povećana koncentracija ugljen-dioksida.

Two in particular are iron and zinc.

Posebno na gvožđe i cink.

When you don't have enough iron, you can develop iron deficiency anemia.

Kada nemate dovoljno gvožđa, može se razviti anemija.

It's associated with fatigue, shortness of breath

Dovodi se u vezu sa umorom, teškoćama u disanju,

and some fairly serious consequences as well.

kao i nekim ozbiljnijim posledicama.

When you don't have enough zinc,

Kada nemate dovoljno cinka,

you can have a loss of appetite.

možete da izgubite apetit.

It is a significant problem around the world.

Ovo je vrlo ozbiljan problem širom sveta.

There's about one billion people who are zinc deficient.

Oko milijardu ljudi na svetu ima nedostatak cinka.

It's very important for maternal and child health.

Veoma je važan za zdravlje majke i deteta.

It affects development.

Utiče na razvoj.

The B vitamins are critical for a whole range of reasons.

Vitamini B su vrlo bitni iz mnogo razloga.

They help convert our food into energy.

Oni pretvaraju hranu koju jedemo u energiju.

They're important for the functions

Važni su za funkcije

of many of the physiologic activities in our bodies.

mnogih fizioloških aktivnosti u našim organizmima.

And when you have higher carbon in a plant,

A kada biljka ima više ugljenika,

you have less nitrogen,

imamo manje azota

and you have less B vitamins.

i manje vitamina B.

And it's not just us.

I ne utiče samo na nas.

Cattle are already being affected

Utiče i na stoku

because the quality of their forage is declining.

jer kvalitet stočne hrane opada.

In fact, this affects every consumer of plants.

Zapravo, ovo utiče na svakog ko konzumira biljnu hranu.

And give a thought to, for example, our pet cats and dogs.

Uzmimo naše ljubimce mačke i pse, na primer.

If you look on the label of most of the pet and dog food,

Ako bacimo pogled na etiketu njihove hrane,

there's a significant amount of grain in those foods.

videćemo da u njoj postoji velika količina žitarica.

So this affects everyone.

Stoga ovo utiče na sve.

How do we know that this is a problem?

Kako znamo da je ovo problem?

We know from field studies

Znamo na osnovu terenskih istraživanja

and we know from experimental studies in laboratories.

i eksperimentalnih studija u laboratorijama.

In the field studies --

U terenskim istraživanjima -

and I'll focus primarily on wheat and on rice --

a fokusiraću se prvenstveno na pšenicu i pirinač -

there's fields, for example, of rice

postoje polja, recimo, pirinča,

that are divided into different plots.

koja su izdeljena na različite parcele.

And the plots are all the same:

Parcele su sve iste:

the soil's the same,

zemljište je isto,

the precipitation's the same --

količina padavina je ista –

everything's the same.

sve je isto.

Except carbon dioxide is blown over some of the plots.

Osim što iznad nekih parcela ima više ugljen-dioksida.

And so you can compare

Tako možete uporediti

what it looks like under today's conditions

situaciju u uslovima danas

and under carbon dioxide conditions later in the century.

i onu u uslovima sa više ugljen-dioksida kasnije tokom ovog veka.

I was part of one of the few studies that have done this.

Bila sam deo jedne od nekoliko studija koje se ovim bave.

We looked at 18 rice lines in China and in Japan

Istraživali smo 18 zasada pirinča u Kini i Japanu

and grew them under conditions that you would expect

i gajili ih u uslovima koje biste očekivali

later in the century.

kasnije u ovom veku.

And when you look at the results,

Kada pogledate rezultate,

the white bar is today's conditions,

beli stubac označava uslove danas,

the red bar is conditions later in the century.

a crveni uslove kasnije u ovom veku.

So protein declines about 10 percent,

Nivo proteina se smanjuje za oko 10%,

iron about eight percent, zinc about five percent.

gvožđa oko 8%, cinka oko 5%.

These don't sound like really big changes,

To ne zvuči kao prevelika promena,

but when you start thinking about the poor in every country

ali ako pomislite na ljude koji žive u siromaštvu u svakoj zemlji

who primarily eat starch,

i prvenstveno jedu skrob,

that this will put people who are on the edge

onda će ovo dovesti ljude koji se nalaze na samoj ivici

over the edge into frank deficiencies,

do toga da pređu tu ivicu u ozbiljan nedostatak,

creating all kinds of health problems.

što će izazvati razne zdravstvene probleme.

The situation is more significant for the B vitamins.

Situacija je malo drastičnija za vitamin B.

When you look at vitamin B1 and vitamin B2,

Ako pogledate vitamine B1 i B2,

there's about a 17 percent decline.

videćete pad od oko 17%.

Pantothenic acid, vitamin B5, is about a 13 percent decline.

Pantotenska kiselina, vitamin B5, beleži pad od oko 13%.

Folate is about a 30 percent decline.

Nivo folata se smanjuje za oko 30%.

And these are averages over the various experiments that were done.

Ove cifre predstavljaju prosečne vrednosti raznih eksperimenata.

Folate is critical for child development.

Folat je od velikog značaja za razvoj dece.

Pregnant women who don't get enough folate

Kod trudnica koje ne dobijaju dovoljno folata

are at much higher risk of having babies with birth defects.

postoji veći rizik da bebe budu rođene sa nekim defektom.

So these are very serious potential consequences for our health

Ovo su vrlo ozbiljne potencijalne posledice po naše zdravlje

as CO2 continues to rise.

ako nivo ugljen-dioksida nastavi da raste.

In another example,

U drugom primeru,

this is modeling work that was done by Chris Weyant and his colleagues,

koji su modelovali Kris Vejant i njegove kolege,

taking a look at this chain from higher CO2 to lower iron and zinc --

vidimo povezanost povišenog nivoa CO2 i smanjenog nivoa gvožđa i cinka -

and they only looked at iron and zinc --

a proučavali su samo gvožđe i cink -

to various health outcomes.

sa raznim zdravstvenim ishodima.

They looked at malaria, diarrheal disease, pneumonia,

Uzimali su u obzir malariju, dijarejske bolesti, upalu pluća,

iron deficiency anemia,

anemiju usled nedostatka gvožđa,

and looked at what the consequences could be in 2050.

i razmatrali moguće posledice u 2050. godini.

And the darker the color in this,

Tamnija boja

the larger the consequences.

označava veće posledice.

So you can see the major impacts

Možete da vidite veliki uticaj

in Asia and in Africa,

u Aziji i Africi,

but also note that in countries such as the United States

ali obratite pažnju na to da i zemlje poput SAD-a

and countries in Europe,

i zemalja Evrope

the populations also could be affected.

mogu biti pogođene.

They estimated about 125 million people could be affected.

Procenjuje se da bi oko 125 miliona ljudi moglo biti pogođeno.

They also modeled what would be the most effective interventions,

Takođe su prikazali najefikasnije moguće intervencije

and their conclusion was reducing our greenhouse gases:

i došli do zaključka da treba smanjiti emisiju gasova staklene bašte:

getting our greenhouse gas emissions down by mid-century

smanjiti emisiju gasova do polovine ovog veka

so we don't have to worry so much about these consequences

kako ne bismo brinuli toliko o ovim posledicama kasnije.

later in the century.

These experiments, these modeling studies

Ovi eksperimenti i prikazi

did not take climate change itself into account.

nisu uzeli u obzir same klimatske promene.

They just focused on the carbon dioxide component.

Fokusirali su se isključivo na ugljen-dioksid.

So when you put the two together,

Stoga, kada uzmete sve u obzir,

it's expected the impact is much larger than what I've told you.

očekuje se da je ovaj uticaj mnogo veći od ovoga što vam pričam.

I'd love to be able to tell you right now

Volela bih da mogu da vam kažem sada

how much the food you had for breakfast, the food you're going to have for lunch,

koliko je hrana koju ste jeli za doručak i ona koju ćete jesti za ručak

has shifted from what your grandparents ate

drugačija od hrane koju su vaši preci jeli

in terms of its nutritional quality.

u pogledu kvaliteta hranljivosti.

But I can't.

Ali ne mogu.

We don't have the research on that.

Nema istraživanja o tome.

I'd love to tell you how much current food insecurity

Volela bih da vam kažem koliko na pitanje obezbeđenosti hrane

is affected by these changes.

utiču ove promene.

But I can't.

Ali ne mogu.

We don't have the research on that, either.

Nema istraživanja ni o tome.

There's a lot that needs to be known in this area,

Treba znati dosta o ovom problemu,

including what the possible solutions could be.

uključujući moguća rešenja.

We don't know exactly what those solutions are,

Ne znamo tačno koja rešenja postoje,

but we've got a range of options.

ali imamo dosta opcija.

We've got advancements in technologies.

Imamo napredak u tehnologiji.

We've got plant breeding. We've got biofortification.

Imamo uzgoj biljaka. Imamo biofortifikaciju.

Soils could make a difference.

Zemljišta mogu biti od pomoći.

And, of course, it will be very helpful to know

I naravno, bilo bi vrlo korisno da znamo

how these changes could affect our future health

kako ove promene mogu da utiču na budućnost našeg zdravlja

and the health of our children and the health of our grandchildren.

i zdravlja naše dece i unuka.

And these investments take time.

A za takve investicije je potrebno vreme.

It will take time to sort all of these issues out.

Biće potrebno dosta vremena da se pozabavimo svim ovim pitanjima.

There is no national entity or business group

Ne postoji nijedan državni entitet ili poslovna organizacija

that is funding this research.

koja finansira istraživanje ovoga.

We need these investments critically so that we do know where we're going.

Hitno su nam potrebne investicije kako bismo stvarno znali kako dalje.

In the meantime, what we can do

U međuvremenu, ono što možemo

is ensure that all people have access to a complete diet,

je da osiguramo da svim ljudima bude dostupna potpuna ishrana,

not just those in the wealthy parts of the world but everywhere in the world.

ne samo onima iz bogatijih krajeva sveta, već svima na planeti.

We also individually and collectively need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions

Takođe moramo da pojedinačno i kolektivno smanjimo emisije gasova staklene bašte

to reduce the challenges that will come later in the century.

kako bismo smanjili izazove koji nas čekaju kasnije.

It's been said that if you think education is expensive, try ignorance.

Kaže se ako mislite da je obrazovanje skupo, probajte sa neznanjem.

Let's not.

Ali nemojmo to.

Let's invest in ourselves,

Hajde da uložimo u sebe,

in our children

u našu decu

and in our planet.

i u našu planetu.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)