How climate change could make our food less nutritious | Kristie Ebi

翻译人员: Nan Yang 校对人员: Yolanda Zhang

Yogi Berra, a US baseball player and philosopher, said,

美国棒球运动员兼哲学家 Yogi Berra 说过：

"If we don't know where we're going, we might not get there."

“如果不知道哪是我们的目的地， 我们就无法到达。”

Accumulating scientific knowledge is giving us greater insights,

不断累积的科学知识 带给我们更深刻的见解，

greater clarity, into what our future might look like in a changing climate

更大的清晰度，让我意识到我们的 未来在气候的变化下会是什么样子

and what that could mean for our health.

以及对我们的健康意味着什么。

I'm here to talk about a related aspect,

我今天在这里要讲解的 是与之相关的一个方面，

on how our emissions of greenhouse gases from burning of fossil fuels

就是我们通过燃烧化石燃料 产生的温室气体，

is reducing the nutritional quality of our food.

正在降低我们食物的营养质量。

We'll start with the food pyramid.

让我们从食物金字塔开始说起。

You all know the food pyramid.

我们都知道食物金字塔。

We all need to eat a balanced diet.

我们都需要均衡饮食。

We need to get proteins,

我们需要摄入蛋白质，

we need to get micronutrients,

我们需要摄入微量元素，

we need to get vitamins.

我们需要摄入维他命。

And so, this is a way for us to think about

所以，这是我们思考如何保证

how to make sure we get what we need every day

我们每天所需的方法，

so we can grow and thrive.

这样我们可以茁壮成长。

But we eat not just because we need to,

但是我们不仅因为身体需要而吃，

we also eat for enjoyment.

我们也为了享受而吃。

Bread, pasta, pizza --

面包，意大利面，披萨等等，

there's a whole range of foods that are culturally important.

有很大一部分的食物 在文化层面上非常重要。

We enjoy eating these.

我们非常喜欢吃这些。

And so they're important for our diet,

所以它们不只对我们的饮食很重要，

but they're also important for our cultures.

对我们的文化也非常重要。

Carbon dioxide has been increasing since the start of the Industrial Revolution,

自从工业革命的开始， 二氧化碳排放量就在逐渐增加，

increasing from about 280 parts per million to over 410 today,

从开始的 280 ppm (浓度单位) 到现在的 410 ppm，

and it continues to increase.

而且还在继续增长。

The carbon that plants need to grow comes from this carbon dioxide.

植物生长所需的碳 来自于这些二氧化碳。

They bring it into the plant,

它们吸收二氧化碳，

they break it apart into the carbon itself,

分解成碳本身，

and they use that to grow.

然后利用其来生长。

They also need nutrients from the soil.

它们也需要从土壤里摄入营养。

And so yes, carbon dioxide is plant food.

所以，是的， 二氧化碳是植物的食物。

And this should be good news, of rising carbon dioxide concentrations,

提升二氧化碳的浓度， 对于全世界的食品安全

for food security around the world,

都应该是好消息，

making sure that people get enough to eat every day.

可以保证人们每天有足够的食物。

About 820 million people in the world don't get enough to eat every day.

世界上有8亿2千万的人 没有足够的食物。

So there's a fair amount written about how higher CO2

所以对于还要多高的二氧化碳 可以帮助解决我们的食品安全问题，

is going to help with our food security problem.

人们进行过很多讨论。

We need to accelerate our progress in agricultural productivity

我们需要加快农业生产进度，

to feed the nine to 10 billion people who will be alive in 2050

来养活到2050年，地球上 将出现的90到100亿人口，

and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals,

以实现可持续发展目标，

particularly the Goal Number 2,

特别是目标2，

that is on reducing food insecurity,

让食品更加安全，

increasing nutrition,

增加营养，

increasing access to the foods that we need for everyone.

让每个人得到所需的食物。

We know that climate change is affecting agricultural productivity.

我们知道气候变化 正在改变着农业生产力。

The earth has warmed about one degree centigrade

自工业化时代以来，

since preindustrial times.

地球的温度已经升高了1摄氏度。

That is changing local temperature and precipitation patterns,

这正改变着局部的温度和降水模式，

and that has consequences for the agricultural productivity

这对世界很多地方的农业生产力

in many parts of the world.

有着重大的影响。

And it's not just local changes in temperature and precipitation,

而且这并不只是 对局部气温和降水的影响，

it's the extremes.

而是非常极端的影响。

Extremes in terms of heat waves, floods and droughts

严重的热浪，洪水和干旱

are significantly affecting productivity.

正在严重影响着生产力。

And that carbon dioxide,

而二氧化碳，

besides making plants grow,

除了帮助植物生长以外，

has other consequences as well,

也有其它副作用，

that plants, when they have higher carbon dioxide,

当植物摄入过高的二氧化碳，

increase the synthesis of carbohydrates, sugars and starches,

提高了碳水化合物， 糖和淀粉的合成，

and they decrease the concentrations of protein and critical nutrients.

而降低了蛋白质和 关键营养物质的浓度。

And this is very important for how we think about food security going forward.

而这对我们思考 未来的食品安全非常重要。

A couple of nights ago in the table talks on climate change,

在几天前的一个 关于气候变化的谈话中，

someone said that they're a five-sevenths optimist:

有人提到他们是 七分之五乐观主义者：

that they're an optimist five days of the week,

意思是每周有五天他们是乐观的，

and this is a topic for the other two days.

而另外两天不是。

When we think about micronutrients,

当我们想到微量元素时，

almost all of them are affected by higher CO2 concentrations.

基本上所有微量元素 都受到更高浓度的二氧化碳影响。

Two in particular are iron and zinc.

特别是铁和锌。

When you don't have enough iron, you can develop iron deficiency anemia.

当你没有摄入足够的铁时， 会触发缺铁性贫血，

It's associated with fatigue, shortness of breath

导致疲劳，呼吸急促，

and some fairly serious consequences as well.

和其它一些非常严重的症状。

When you don't have enough zinc,

而当你摄入锌不足的时候，

you can have a loss of appetite.

可能会导致没有胃口。

It is a significant problem around the world.

这是全球范围内的严重问题。

There's about one billion people who are zinc deficient.

有大约10亿人缺锌。

It's very important for maternal and child health.

这对于母亲和孩子的健康尤为重要。

It affects development.

它影响着孩子的生长。

The B vitamins are critical for a whole range of reasons.

维他命B在很多方面都非常关键。

They help convert our food into energy.

B族维他命帮助把我们 的食物转化为能量。

They're important for the functions

对于我们身体中很多 的生理活动机能

of many of the physiologic activities in our bodies.

都非常重要。

And when you have higher carbon in a plant,

而且当在植物中有过高的碳，

you have less nitrogen,

氮含量就会减少，

and you have less B vitamins.

维他命B也会减少。

And it's not just us.

而这不只会影响我们。

Cattle are already being affected

由于草饲料质量的下降，

because the quality of their forage is declining.

牛也已经受到了影响。

In fact, this affects every consumer of plants.

实际上，它影响着 所有植物的消耗者。

And give a thought to, for example, our pet cats and dogs.

想一下，比如我们的宠物猫狗。

If you look on the label of most of the pet and dog food,

如果你仔细看狗粮，猫粮产品的标签，

there's a significant amount of grain in those foods.

这些食物里包含大量的谷物。

So this affects everyone.

它影响着每个生物。

How do we know that this is a problem?

我们是如何知道这是个问题的呢?

We know from field studies

我们从一些实地考察，

and we know from experimental studies in laboratories.

从实验室的实验研究得知这些。

In the field studies --

在实地考察中——

and I'll focus primarily on wheat and on rice --

我会主要关注小麦和水稻 ——

there's fields, for example, of rice

例如，水稻田

that are divided into different plots.

会被分成不同的地块。

And the plots are all the same:

这些地块完全一样：

the soil's the same,

一样的土壤，

the precipitation's the same --

一样的灌溉方式——

everything's the same.

所有条件都一样，

Except carbon dioxide is blown over some of the plots.

除了吹到田里的二氧化碳。

And so you can compare

所以你可以比较

what it looks like under today's conditions

在现在的二氧化碳情况

and under carbon dioxide conditions later in the century.

和本世纪后期二氧化碳的 情况下对作物的影响。

I was part of one of the few studies that have done this.

我参与了这些实地考察中的一部分。

We looked at 18 rice lines in China and in Japan

我们查看了在中国和日本的 18条水稻生产线，

and grew them under conditions that you would expect

它们是在我们预期中的本世纪后期的

later in the century.

二氧化碳情况下生长。

And when you look at the results,

现在让我们来看结果，

the white bar is today's conditions,

白柱是现在的情况，

the red bar is conditions later in the century.

红柱是本世纪后期的情况。

So protein declines about 10 percent,

可见蛋白质含量降低了10%，

iron about eight percent, zinc about five percent.

铁8%，锌大约5%。

These don't sound like really big changes,

听起来这些不是什么大变化，

but when you start thinking about the poor in every country

但是当你想到每个国家

who primarily eat starch,

主要以吃淀粉为生的穷人时，

that this will put people who are on the edge

这会把那些生存在贫穷边缘的人

over the edge into frank deficiencies,

推向营养严重不足的一边，

creating all kinds of health problems.

导致各种安全健康问题。

The situation is more significant for the B vitamins.

情况对于维他命B族更加严重。

When you look at vitamin B1 and vitamin B2,

我们看维他命B1和B2，

there's about a 17 percent decline.

都大约降低了17%。

Pantothenic acid, vitamin B5, is about a 13 percent decline.

泛酸，维他命B5 下降了大约13%。

Folate is about a 30 percent decline.

叶酸降低了30%。

And these are averages over the various experiments that were done.

而这些是我们所做的 各种实验的平均值。

Folate is critical for child development.

叶酸对于胚胎的成长非常关键。

Pregnant women who don't get enough folate

孕妇如果不能摄入足够叶酸

are at much higher risk of having babies with birth defects.

会有更高风险造成婴儿缺陷。

So these are very serious potential consequences for our health

所以这些都是二氧化碳持续增长 会对我们的健康带来的

as CO2 continues to rise.

潜在严重后果。

In another example,

接下来的例子，

this is modeling work that was done by Chris Weyant and his colleagues,

是由Chris Weyant和 他的同事做的建模工作，

taking a look at this chain from higher CO2 to lower iron and zinc --

来看这个从高二氧化碳 到低锌低铁的链条，

and they only looked at iron and zinc --

他们研究了铁和锌与

to various health outcomes.

各种健康状况的关系。

They looked at malaria, diarrheal disease, pneumonia,

他们研究了疟疾，腹泻，肺炎，

iron deficiency anemia,

缺铁性贫血，

and looked at what the consequences could be in 2050.

研究了2050年结果会是什么样，

And the darker the color in this,

在图里颜色越深，

the larger the consequences.

代表造成的后果越大。

So you can see the major impacts

你可以看见在亚洲和非洲

in Asia and in Africa,

的主要影响，

but also note that in countries such as the United States

但是要注意，在美国

and countries in Europe,

和欧洲各国，

the populations also could be affected.

人们也受到了影响。

They estimated about 125 million people could be affected.

他们估计大约1亿2千500万人会受影响。

They also modeled what would be the most effective interventions,

他们同样模拟了 哪种是最有效的干预措施，

and their conclusion was reducing our greenhouse gases:

而结论就是要减少温室气体：

getting our greenhouse gas emissions down by mid-century

在本世纪中期减少温室气体的释放

so we don't have to worry so much about these consequences

我们就不需要担心那些

later in the century.

对本世纪后期产生的影响。

These experiments, these modeling studies

这些实验，模型的研究

did not take climate change itself into account.

没有把气候变化考虑在内。

They just focused on the carbon dioxide component.

他们只是专注于二氧化碳部分。

So when you put the two together,

所以当你把这两部分放在一起，

it's expected the impact is much larger than what I've told you.

可以预期那些影响将比 我之前所说的还要严重。

I'd love to be able to tell you right now

此时我非常想告诉你们，

how much the food you had for breakfast, the food you're going to have for lunch,

我们早餐和午餐吃的食物

has shifted from what your grandparents ate

从营养质量的角度跟 我们祖父母所吃的

in terms of its nutritional quality.

有什么不同。

But I can't.

但是我不能。

We don't have the research on that.

我们没有那方面的研究。

I'd love to tell you how much current food insecurity

我非常想告诉你们 有多少食品的安全性

is affected by these changes.

被这些变化影响。

But I can't.

但是我不能。

We don't have the research on that, either.

我们也没有这方面的研究。

There's a lot that needs to be known in this area,

在这个领域还有很多需要探索的东西，

including what the possible solutions could be.

包括可能的解决方案是什么。

We don't know exactly what those solutions are,

我们不知道确切的解决方案，

but we've got a range of options.

但是我们有一系列选择。

We've got advancements in technologies.

我们有技术的进步。

We've got plant breeding. We've got biofortification.

我们有植物育种。 我们有生物强化。

Soils could make a difference.

土壤可以带来变化。

And, of course, it will be very helpful to know

而且当然，它有助于我们知道

how these changes could affect our future health

这些变化如何影响人们未来的健康，

and the health of our children and the health of our grandchildren.

和我们子孙的健康。

And these investments take time.

这些投入都需要时间。

It will take time to sort all of these issues out.

需要时间来把问题整理清楚。

There is no national entity or business group

没有国家实体或者商业机构

that is funding this research.

在资助这些研究。

We need these investments critically so that we do know where we're going.

我们非常需要这些投资， 这样就可以知道我们的方向。

In the meantime, what we can do

同时，我们可以做的事情

is ensure that all people have access to a complete diet,

是确保所有人能够得到 完整的饮食结构，

not just those in the wealthy parts of the world but everywhere in the world.

不只是那些富裕的地方， 而是世界上所有地方。

We also individually and collectively need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions

我们从个人和集体的角度都要 减少温室气体的排放，

to reduce the challenges that will come later in the century.

这样才能减少本世纪后期 会出现的那些挑战。

It's been said that if you think education is expensive, try ignorance.

有人说过，如果你认为教育很昂贵， 那么试一试无知的代价。

Let's not.

但是我们不能这样。

Let's invest in ourselves,

让我们为自己投资，

in our children

为我们的孩子和

and in our planet.

地球投资吧。

Thank you.

谢谢大家。

(Applause)

（掌声）