How climate change could make our food less nutritious | Kristie Ebi

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Congmei Han

Yogi Berra, a US baseball player and philosopher, said,

美國棒球球員及哲學家 尤吉·貝拉說過：

"If we don't know where we're going, we might not get there."

「若我們不知道要去哪裡 就可能到不了那裡。」

Accumulating scientific knowledge is giving us greater insights,

累積的科學知識讓我們 有更深入更清楚的洞見，

greater clarity, into what our future might look like in a changing climate

了解在變遷的氣候之下 我們的未來可能會變成什麼樣子，

and what that could mean for our health.

及氣候變遷對我們健康意味著什麼。

I'm here to talk about a related aspect,

我來這裡是要談一個相關的面向，

on how our emissions of greenhouse gases from burning of fossil fuels

談燃燒化石燃料造成的溫室氣體排放

會如何讓我們食物的營養品質下降。

is reducing the nutritional quality of our food.

We'll start with the food pyramid.

我們先從食物金字塔開始。

You all know the food pyramid.

大家都知道食物金字塔。

We all need to eat a balanced diet.

我們都需要均衡的飲食。

We need to get proteins,

我們需要取得蛋白質， 需要取得微量營養素，

we need to get micronutrients,

we need to get vitamins.

需要取得維生素。所以， 我們可以用這種方式來思考

And so, this is a way for us to think about

how to make sure we get what we need every day

我們要如何確保我們 能夠得到每日所需，

so we can grow and thrive.

讓我們成長茁壯。

But we eat not just because we need to,

但，我們不只是因為 我們需要吃而吃，

we also eat for enjoyment.

我們了為了享受而吃。

Bread, pasta, pizza --

麵包、義大利麵、比薩——

there's a whole range of foods that are culturally important.

有一大堆食物在文化上 有很高的重要性。

We enjoy eating these.

我們享受吃這些食物。

And so they're important for our diet,

所以，它們對我們的飲食很重要，

but they're also important for our cultures.

但它們也對我們的文化很重要。

Carbon dioxide has been increasing since the start of the Industrial Revolution,

從工業革命之後 二氧化碳濃度就一直在上升，

increasing from about 280 parts per million to over 410 today,

從 280 ppm 上升到

現在的 410 ppm 以上，

and it continues to increase.

且還在持續上升。

The carbon that plants need to grow comes from this carbon dioxide.

植物生長需要的碳 來自這種二氧化碳。

They bring it into the plant,

空氣中的二氧化碳進入植物中分解，

they break it apart into the carbon itself,

and they use that to grow.

然後植物會靠那碳來生長。

They also need nutrients from the soil.

植物也需要來自土壤的營養。

And so yes, carbon dioxide is plant food.

所以，二氧化碳確是植物的食物。

And this should be good news, of rising carbon dioxide concentrations,

對於確保世界的糧食來說，

二氧化碳濃度增加應該是好消息，

for food security around the world,

making sure that people get enough to eat every day.

因為能確保大家每天 有足夠的食物可吃。

About 820 million people in the world don't get enough to eat every day.

全世界大約有八億兩千萬人 每天沒有足夠的食物可吃。

So there's a fair amount written about how higher CO2

所以，更高濃度的二氧化碳的確可以

is going to help with our food security problem.

協助我們解決糧食安全問題。

We need to accelerate our progress in agricultural productivity

我們需要加速我們 在農業生產力的進展，

to feed the nine to 10 billion people who will be alive in 2050

才能在 2050 年的時候 讓九十到一百億人有食物可吃，

and to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals,

且能達成永續發展目標，

particularly the Goal Number 2,

特別是第二個目標，

that is on reducing food insecurity,

也就是降低糧食的不安全系數，

increasing nutrition,

增加糧食營養，

increasing access to the foods that we need for everyone.

增加人人所需要的食物的可攝取性。

We know that climate change is affecting agricultural productivity.

我們知道氣候變遷 會影響農業生產力。

The earth has warmed about one degree centigrade

和工業革命之前相比，

地球溫度已經變暖了約攝氏一度。

since preindustrial times.

That is changing local temperature and precipitation patterns,

那意味著地方溫度 和降雨模式會改變，

and that has consequences for the agricultural productivity

就會對農業生產力造成影響，

in many parts of the world.

在世界許多地方皆是如此。

And it's not just local changes in temperature and precipitation,

問題並不只是在地方的 溫度和降雨改變，

it's the extremes.

還有極端氣候。

Extremes in terms of heat waves, floods and droughts

比如熱浪、洪水、乾旱，

are significantly affecting productivity.

都會顯著影響農業生產力。

And that carbon dioxide,

且二氧化碳

besides making plants grow,

除了讓植物生長之外，

has other consequences as well,

還有其他後果，

that plants, when they have higher carbon dioxide,

當植物有比較高的二氧化碳時，

increase the synthesis of carbohydrates, sugars and starches,

碳水化合物、糖、 澱粉的合成會增加，

and they decrease the concentrations of protein and critical nutrients.

它們會減少蛋白質 和重要營養物的合成。

And this is very important for how we think about food security going forward.

這點對於糧食安全的 前景十分重要。

A couple of nights ago in the table talks on climate change,

幾天前的晚上，在關於 氣候變遷的座談會中，

someone said that they're a five-sevenths optimist:

有人說他屬於 七分之五的樂觀主義者：

that they're an optimist five days of the week,

一週七天中有五天是樂觀主義者，

and this is a topic for the other two days.

而氣候變遷這個主題， 是針對剩下的那兩天的。

When we think about micronutrients,

想想看微量營養素，

almost all of them are affected by higher CO2 concentrations.

它們幾乎全部都會被 上升的二氧化碳濃度給影響。

Two in particular are iron and zinc.

特別會被影響的是鐵和鋅。

When you don't have enough iron, you can develop iron deficiency anemia.

當你的鐵不夠時，就可能 會發展出缺鐵性貧血。

It's associated with fatigue, shortness of breath

它也可能會造成疲勞、呼吸短促，

and some fairly serious consequences as well.

以及一些很嚴重的後果。

When you don't have enough zinc,

當你的鋅不夠時，

you can have a loss of appetite.

你可能會失去食慾。

It is a significant problem around the world.

這是全世界都存在的重大問題。

There's about one billion people who are zinc deficient.

大約有十億人的鋅不足。

It's very important for maternal and child health.

鋅對於母親和孩子的健康 也有很大的影響。

It affects development.

它會影響成長。

The B vitamins are critical for a whole range of reasons.

維生素 B 群很重要，理由很多。

They help convert our food into energy.

它們能協助將我們的 食物轉換為能量。

They're important for the functions

它們會影響到

of many of the physiologic activities in our bodies.

我們身體中的許多生理活動功能。

And when you have higher carbon in a plant,

當植物中的碳比較高時，

you have less nitrogen,

氮就會比較少，

and you have less B vitamins.

維生素 B 群就會比較少。

And it's not just us.

不只是我們人類。

Cattle are already being affected

牛已經因為其糧草的品質下降

because the quality of their forage is declining.

而受到影響。

In fact, this affects every consumer of plants.

事實上，所有草食動物 都會受到影響。

And give a thought to, for example, our pet cats and dogs.

比如，想想我們的寵物貓和狗。

If you look on the label of most of the pet and dog food,

如果你去看大部分 寵物食物和狗食的標籤，

there's a significant amount of grain in those foods.

會看到成份包括有 大量的穀物含量。

So this affects everyone.

所以大家都會受到影響。

How do we know that this is a problem?

我們如何知道這是個問題？

We know from field studies

從實地研究可以得知，

and we know from experimental studies in laboratories.

從實驗室中的 實驗研究也可以得知。

In the field studies --

在實地研究中——

and I'll focus primarily on wheat and on rice --

我把焦點主要放在小麥和稻米——

there's fields, for example, of rice

比如，有一些稻米田

that are divided into different plots.

被分割為不同的小區塊。

And the plots are all the same:

這些小區塊完全相同：

the soil's the same,

土壤相同、

the precipitation's the same --

降雨相同——

everything's the same.

一切條件都相同。

Except carbon dioxide is blown over some of the plots.

只差在研究者將二氧化碳 釋放在某些小區塊上。

And so you can compare

這樣就可以比較

what it looks like under today's conditions

在現今的條件之下

and under carbon dioxide conditions later in the century.

以及在下半世紀的二氧化碳 條件下會有什麼差別。

I was part of one of the few studies that have done this.

有少數幾個這類的研究， 我參與了其中一個。

We looked at 18 rice lines in China and in Japan

我們去研究中國 和日本的十八種稻米，

and grew them under conditions that you would expect

在預期下半世紀的二氧化碳條件之下

later in the century.

種植它們。

And when you look at the results,

來看看結果，

the white bar is today's conditions,

白色長條是現今的條件，

the red bar is conditions later in the century.

紅色長條是下半世紀的條件。

So protein declines about 10 percent,

蛋白質下降了大約 10%，

iron about eight percent, zinc about five percent.

鐵下降大約 8%，鋅下降大約 5%。

These don't sound like really big changes,

聽起來改變並不大，

but when you start thinking about the poor in every country

但，想想看每個國家的窮人，

who primarily eat starch,

他們吃的主要就是澱粉，

that this will put people who are on the edge

這會讓已經在營養缺乏邊緣的人

over the edge into frank deficiencies,

跨過這條線，真的缺乏營養，

creating all kinds of health problems.

導致各種健康問題。

The situation is more significant for the B vitamins.

維生素 B 群的狀況比較嚴重。

When you look at vitamin B1 and vitamin B2,

看看維生素 B1 和 B2，

there's about a 17 percent decline.

下降了約 17%。

Pantothenic acid, vitamin B5, is about a 13 percent decline.

泛酸，也就是維生素 B5， 下降了約 13%。

Folate is about a 30 percent decline.

葉酸下降了約 30%。

And these are averages over the various experiments that were done.

這些數字是各項實驗 得到的平均值。

Folate is critical for child development.

葉酸對孩童發展很重要。

Pregnant women who don't get enough folate

懷孕的女性若沒有足夠的葉酸，

are at much higher risk of having babies with birth defects.

會有更高的風險 生出有缺陷的寶寶。

So these are very serious potential consequences for our health

如果二氧化碳持續上升，

這些都是很嚴重的潛在健康後果。

as CO2 continues to rise.

In another example,

再舉一個例子，

this is modeling work that was done by Chris Weyant and his colleagues,

這是克里斯·韋揚 和他的同事所建的模型，

taking a look at this chain from higher CO2 to lower iron and zinc --

看的是二氧化碳的提升 如何連結到鐵及鋅的下降——

and they only looked at iron and zinc --

他們只研究了鐵和鋅——

to various health outcomes.

再如何連結到健康結果。

They looked at malaria, diarrheal disease, pneumonia,

他們觀察到的疾病有 瘧疾、腹瀉、肺炎、

iron deficiency anemia,

缺鐵性貧血，

and looked at what the consequences could be in 2050.

並去研究在 2050 年 會有什麼後果。

And the darker the color in this,

圖上比較深的顏色

the larger the consequences.

表示後果比較嚴重。

So you can see the major impacts

這樣各位就可以看出

in Asia and in Africa,

亞洲和非洲的衝擊最大，

but also note that in countries such as the United States

但也請注意一下像美國這類國家，

and countries in Europe,

還有歐洲的國家，

the populations also could be affected.

這些地方的居民也可能被影響。

They estimated about 125 million people could be affected.

他們估計會有大約 一億兩千五百萬人被影響。

They also modeled what would be the most effective interventions,

他們也建模來研究 最有效的干預方式是什麼，

and their conclusion was reducing our greenhouse gases:

他們的結論是， 減少我們的溫室氣體：

getting our greenhouse gas emissions down by mid-century

在這個世紀中時要將 我們的溫室氣體排放降低，

so we don't have to worry so much about these consequences

這樣在下半世紀

我們才不用太擔心這些後果。

later in the century.

These experiments, these modeling studies

這些實驗，這些建模研究，

did not take climate change itself into account.

並沒有把氣候變遷納入考量。

They just focused on the carbon dioxide component.

它們只把焦點放在 二氧化碳這個元素。

So when you put the two together,

如果把這兩者拼湊起來，

it's expected the impact is much larger than what I've told you.

衝擊會比我剛才告訴 各位的還要大很多。

I'd love to be able to tell you right now

我很希望現在能告訴大家，

how much the food you had for breakfast, the food you're going to have for lunch,

你們在早餐時吃了多少食物， 等下在午餐要吃多少食物，

has shifted from what your grandparents ate

和你們的祖父母所吃的

in terms of its nutritional quality.

在營養品質上有什麼不同。

But I can't.

但我沒辦法。

We don't have the research on that.

我們沒有那方面的研究。

I'd love to tell you how much current food insecurity

我很想告訴各位，目前的糧食安全

is affected by these changes.

受到這些改變的影響有多大。

But I can't.

但我沒辦法。

We don't have the research on that, either.

我們也沒有那方面的研究。

There's a lot that needs to be known in this area,

在這個領域中， 還有很多需要探究的，

including what the possible solutions could be.

包括有什麼可能的解決方案。

We don't know exactly what those solutions are,

我們不清楚那些解決方案是什麼，

but we've got a range of options.

但我們有許多選項。

We've got advancements in technologies.

我們有科技的進步。

We've got plant breeding. We've got biofortification.

我們有植物育種。 我們有生物營養強化。

Soils could make a difference.

土壤也能造成不同。

And, of course, it will be very helpful to know

當然，最好能夠知道

how these changes could affect our future health

這些改變會如何影響 我們未來的健康、

and the health of our children and the health of our grandchildren.

我們孩子的健康， 及我們孫子孫女的健康。

And these investments take time.

這些投資都要花時間。

It will take time to sort all of these issues out.

要理清這些議題都要花時間。

There is no national entity or business group

沒有國家實體或者企業集團

that is funding this research.

在資助這項研究。

We need these investments critically so that we do know where we're going.

我們迫切需要這些投資，

這樣我們才能知道 我們未來的方向。

In the meantime, what we can do

在這期間，我們能做的就是

is ensure that all people have access to a complete diet,

確保所有人都能攝取全面的飲食，

not just those in the wealthy parts of the world but everywhere in the world.

不僅是在世界上富裕地區的人， 而是全世界的人。

We also individually and collectively need to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions

我們個人以及集體都需要 減少我們的溫室氣體排放，

to reduce the challenges that will come later in the century.

減輕下半世紀會出現的挑戰。

It's been said that if you think education is expensive, try ignorance.

有人說過，如果你覺得教育 很昂貴，試試無知的代價吧。

Let's not.

咱們別試吧。

Let's invest in ourselves,

咱們要投資我們自己，

in our children

投資我們的孩子， 投資我們的星球。

and in our planet.

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）