Erik Brynjolfsson: The key to growth? Race with the machines

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Mile Živković Lektor: Dejan Vicai

Growth is not dead.

Rast nije mrtav.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)

Let's start the story 120 years ago,

Hajde da krenemo s pričom pre 120 godina

when American factories began to electrify their operations,

kada su američke fabrike u svoje operacije počele uvode struju

igniting the Second Industrial Revolution.

i pokreću Drugu industrijsku revoluciju.

The amazing thing is

Neverovatno je da

that productivity did not increase in those factories

produktivnost u tim fabrikama nije porasla

for 30 years. Thirty years.

30 godina. Trideset godina.

That's long enough for a generation of managers to retire.

To je dovoljno dugo da se penzioniše generacija upravnika.

You see, the first wave of managers

Prvi talas upravnika

simply replaced their steam engines with electric motors,

jednostavno je zamenio parne mašine električnim motorima,

but they didn't redesign the factories to take advantage

ali nisu rekonstruisali fabrike kako bi iskoristili prednosti

of electricity's flexibility.

fleksibilnosti struje.

It fell to the next generation to invent new work processes,

Na sledeću generaciju je palo da smisli nove procese rada,

and then productivity soared,

i produktivnost je onda eksplodirala,

often doubling or even tripling in those factories.

u tim fabrikama, često dva ili tri puta više.

Electricity is an example of a general purpose technology,

Struja je primer tehnologije za opštu upotrebu,

like the steam engine before it.

poput parne mašine pre nje.

General purpose technologies drive most economic growth,

Tehnologije za opštu upotrebu pokreću najviše ekonomskog rasta

because they unleash cascades of complementary innovations,

jer oslobađaju slapove dodatnih inovacija

like lightbulbs and, yes, factory redesign.

poput sijalica, i da, rekonstrukcije fabrika.

Is there a general purpose technology of our era?

Postoji li tenologija za opštu upotrebu našeg doba?

Sure. It's the computer.

Naravno, to je kompjuter.

But technology alone is not enough.

Ali sama tehnologija nije dovoljna.

Technology is not destiny.

Tehnologija nije sudbina.

We shape our destiny,

Mi oblikujemo svoju sudbinu,

and just as the earlier generations of managers

i baš kao što su ranije generacije upravnika

needed to redesign their factories,

morale da rekonstruišu svoje fabrike,

we're going to need to reinvent our organizations

mi ćemo morati da ponovo izmislimo svoje organizacije

and even our whole economic system.

i čak i naš ceo sistem ekonomije.

We're not doing as well at that job as we should be.

U tome nismo uspešni kao što bi trebali da budemo.

As we'll see in a moment,

Kao što ćemo uskoro videti,

productivity is actually doing all right,

produktivnost je u stvari sasvim u redu,

but it has become decoupled from jobs,

ali je postala odvojena od poslova

and the income of the typical worker is stagnating.

i prihodi tipičnog radnika tapkaju u mestu.

These troubles are sometimes misdiagnosed

Ovi problemi se ponekad pogrešno tumače

as the end of innovation,

kao kraj inovacije,

but they are actually the growing pains

ali su zapravo problemi odrastanja

of what Andrew McAfee and I call the new machine age.

u onom što Endru Mekefi i ja zovemo novim dobom mašina.

Let's look at some data.

Pogledajmo neke podatke.

So here's GDP per person in America.

Ovde je BDP po osobi u Americi.

There's some bumps along the way, but the big story

Postoje male nepravilnosti, ali veliku sliku

is you could practically fit a ruler to it.

možete praktično ravnati lenjirom.

This is a log scale, so what looks like steady growth

Ovo je logaritmična skala, tako da je ono što izgleda kao trajni rast

is actually an acceleration in real terms.

zapravo pravo ubrzanje.

And here's productivity.

Ovde je produktivnost.

You can see a little bit of a slowdown there in the mid-'70s,

Možete videti malo usporenje sredinom '70-ih,

but it matches up pretty well with the Second Industrial Revolution,

ali prilično dobro se poklapa sa Drugom industrijskom revolucijom

when factories were learning how to electrify their operations.

kada su fabrike učile kako da uvedu struju u svoje operacije.

After a lag, productivity accelerated again.

Nakon zadržavanja, produktivnost se opet ubrzala.

So maybe "history doesn't repeat itself,

Možda se "istorija ne ponavlja,

but sometimes it rhymes."

ali ponekad se rimuje."

Today, productivity is at an all-time high,

Produktivnost je danas na svom vrhuncu

and despite the Great Recession,

i uprkos Velikoj recesiji

it grew faster in the 2000s than it did in the 1990s,

2000-tih je rasla brže nego '90-ih,

the roaring 1990s, and that was faster than the '70s or '80s.

bučnih '90-ih, i to je bilo brže od '70-ih i '80-ih.

It's growing faster than it did during the Second Industrial Revolution.

Raste brže nego u Drugoj industrijskoj revoluciji.

And that's just the United States.

A to je samo u SAD-u.

The global news is even better.

Globalne vesti su još bolje.

Worldwide incomes have grown at a faster rate

Svetski prihodi su rasli brže

in the past decade than ever in history.

u prošloj deceniji nego ikada u istoriji.

If anything, all these numbers actually understate our progress,

Ako ništa drugo, ove brojke potcenjuju naš napredak

because the new machine age

jer se u novom dobu mašina

is more about knowledge creation

radi više o stvaranju znanja

than just physical production.

nego samo o fizičkoj proizvodnji.

It's mind not matter, brain not brawn,

To je mozak, ne materija, pamet, a ne snaga

ideas not things.

ideje, a ne stvari.

That creates a problem for standard metrics,

To stvara probleme za standardnu metriku,

because we're getting more and more stuff for free,

jer sve više stvari dobijamo besplatno,

like Wikipedia, Google, Skype,

poput Vikipedije, Gugla, Skajpa,

and if they post it on the web, even this TED Talk.

i ako se stavi na internet, čak i ovaj TED govor.

Now getting stuff for free is a good thing, right?

Besplatne stvari su dobra stvar, zar ne?

Sure, of course it is.

Naravno da jesu.

But that's not how economists measure GDP.

Ali ekonomisti ne mere BDP na taj način.

Zero price means zero weight in the GDP statistics.

Nepostojeća cena predstavlja nepostojeću težinu u statistici BDP-a.

According to the numbers, the music industry

Ako je suditi po brojkama, muzička industrija

is half the size that it was 10 years ago,

je sada za polovinu manja nego pre 10 godina,

but I'm listening to more and better music than ever.

ali slušam više muzike i bolju muziku nego ikad.

You know, I bet you are too.

Mislim da je tako i kod vas.

In total, my research estimates

U mom istraživanju se ukupno procenjuje

that the GDP numbers miss over 300 billion dollars per year

da BDP cifre godišnje propuste preko 300 milijardi dolara

in free goods and services on the Internet.

u besplatnoj robi i uslugama na internetu.

Now let's look to the future.

Hajde da pogledamo u budućnost.

There are some super smart people

Postoje neki veoma pametni ljudi

who are arguing that we've reached the end of growth,

koji kažu da smo došli do kraja rasta,

but to understand the future of growth,

ali da bismo razumeli budućnost rasta

we need to make predictions

moramo napraviti predviđanja

about the underlying drivers of growth.

o osnovnim pokretačima rasta.

I'm optimistic, because the new machine age

Optimističan sam, zato što je novo doba mašina

is digital, exponential and combinatorial.

digitalno, eksponencijalno i kombinatorično.

When goods are digital, they can be replicated

Kada je roba digitalna, može se kopirati

with perfect quality at nearly zero cost,

u savršenom kvalitetu bez skoro ikakvih troškova

and they can be delivered almost instantaneously.

i može se isporučiti skoro trenutno.

Welcome to the economics of abundance.

Dobrodošli u ekonomiju viška.

But there's a subtler benefit to the digitization of the world.

Ali postoji suptilnija prednost digitalizacije sveta.

Measurement is the lifeblood of science and progress.

Mera je žila kucavica nauke i napretka.

In the age of big data,

U dobu velikih podataka

we can measure the world in ways we never could before.

možemo premeriti svet na načine na koje nikada pre nismo mogli.

Secondly, the new machine age is exponential.

Drugo, novo doba mašina je eksponencijalno.

Computers get better faster than anything else ever.

Kompjuteri se poboljšavaju brže od ičeg drugog, ikada.

A child's Playstation today is more powerful

Plejstejšn nekog deteta danas

than a military supercomputer from 1996.

je moćniji od vojnog superkompjutera iz 1996.

But our brains are wired for a linear world.

Ali naši mozgovi su podešeni za linearni svet.

As a result, exponential trends take us by surprise.

Posledica toga je da nas iznenađuju eksponencijalni trendovi.

I used to teach my students that there are some things,

Svoje učenike sam učio da postoje neke stvari

you know, computers just aren't good at,

u kojima, znate, kompjuteri nisu baš dobri,

like driving a car through traffic.

recimo vožnja automobila kroz saobraćaj.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

That's right, here's Andy and me grinning like madmen

Tu smo Endi i ja kako se smejemo kao ludi

because we just rode down Route 101

jer smo upravo prošli putem 101

in, yes, a driverless car.

u kolima bez vozača.

Thirdly, the new machine age is combinatorial.

Treće, novo doba mašina je kombinatorično.

The stagnationist view is that ideas get used up,

Iz perspektive stagnacionista, ideje se potroše,

like low-hanging fruit,

poput voća na niskim granama,

but the reality is that each innovation

ali u stvarnosti svaka inovacija

creates building blocks for even more innovations.

stvara gradivni materijal za još više inovacija.

Here's an example. In just a matter of a few weeks,

Evo primera. Za samo nekoliko nedelja

an undergraduate student of mine

jedan moj student osnovnih studija

built an app that ultimately reached 1.3 million users.

napravio je aplikaciju koju je preuzelo 1,3 miliona korisnika.

He was able to do that so easily

To je mogao da uradi s tom lakoćom

because he built it on top of Facebook,

jer je to uradio preko Fejsbuka,

and Facebook was built on top of the web,

a Fejsbuk je napravljen preko mreže,

and that was built on top of the Internet,

a to je napravljeno preko interneta,

and so on and so forth.

i tako dalje.

Now individually, digital, exponential and combinatorial

Pojedinačno, digitalno, eksponencijalno i kombinatorično

would each be game-changers.

bi svaki za sebe menjali igru.

Put them together, and we're seeing a wave

Ali stavite ih zajedno i vidimo talas

of astonishing breakthroughs,

neverovatnih otkrića

like robots that do factory work or run as fast as a cheetah

poput robota koji rade u fabrikama ili trče brzo kao gepardi

or leap tall buildings in a single bound.

i preskaču velike zgrade iz jednog skoka.

You know, robots are even revolutionizing

Roboti čak prave revoluciju

cat transportation.

i u transportu mačaka.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But perhaps the most important invention,

Ali možda najbitniji izum,

the most important invention is machine learning.

je mašinsko učenje.

Consider one project: IBM's Watson.

Pogledajmo jedan projekat: IBM-ov Votson.

These little dots here,

Ove tačkice ovde

those are all the champions on the quiz show "Jeopardy."

su pobednici televizijskog kviza "Opasnost".

At first, Watson wasn't very good,

Votson isprva nije bio veoma dobar,

but it improved at a rate faster than any human could,

ali se poboljšao brže nego što bi mogao ijedan čovek

and shortly after Dave Ferrucci showed this chart

i ubrzo nakon što je Dejv Feruči pokazao ovu tabelu

to my class at MIT,

mom odeljenju na MIT univerzitetu,

Watson beat the world "Jeopardy" champion.

Votson je pobedio svetskog šampiona u "Opasnosti".

At age seven, Watson is still kind of in its childhood.

U svojoj sedmoj godini, Votson je još uvek u detinjstvu.

Recently, its teachers let it surf the Internet unsupervised.

Njegovi učitelji su ga nedavno pustili da pretražuje internet bez nadzora.

The next day, it started answering questions with profanities.

Sledećeg dana počeo je da na pitanja odgovara vulgarnim izrazima.

Damn. (Laughter)

Prokletstvo. (Smeh)

But you know, Watson is growing up fast.

Znate, Votson brzo raste.

It's being tested for jobs in call centers, and it's getting them.

Testiraju ga za poslove u telefonskim centralama, i on dobija te poslove.

It's applying for legal, banking and medical jobs,

Prijavljuje se za poslove u pravu, bankarstvu i medicini,

and getting some of them.

i dobija neke od njih.

Isn't it ironic that at the very moment

Zar nije ironično što u istom trenutku

we are building intelligent machines,

kada pravimo inteligentne mašine,

perhaps the most important invention in human history,

možda najbitniji izum u istoriji ljudi,

some people are arguing that innovation is stagnating?

neki ljudi još uvek tvrde da inovacija tapka u mestu?

Like the first two industrial revolutions,

Poput prve dve industrijske revolucije,

the full implications of the new machine age

punim implikacijama novog doba mašina

are going to take at least a century to fully play out,

će trebati makar jedan vek da se potpuno otkriju

but they are staggering.

ali su zapanjujuće.

So does that mean we have nothing to worry about?

Da li to znači da ne moramo da brinemo ni o čemu?

No. Technology is not destiny.

Ne. Tehnologija nije sudbina.

Productivity is at an all time high,

Produktivnost je na svom vrhuncu

but fewer people now have jobs.

ali manje ljudi sada ima posao.

We have created more wealth in the past decade than ever,

U prošloj deceniji smo stvorili više bogatstva nego ikad,

but for a majority of Americans, their income has fallen.

ali za većinu Amerikanaca prihodi su opali.

This is the great decoupling

Ovo je veliko razdvajanje

of productivity from employment,

produktivnosti od zaposlenosti,

of wealth from work.

bogatstva od rada.

You know, it's not surprising that millions of people

Nije iznenađujuće to što su milioni ljudi

have become disillusioned by the great decoupling,

u iluziji zbog velikog razdvajanja,

but like too many others,

ali poput mnogih drugih,

they misunderstand its basic causes.

pogrešno su razumeli osnovne uzroke ovoga.

Technology is racing ahead,

Tehnologija grabi napred,

but it's leaving more and more people behind.

a sve više ljudi ostaje iza nje.

Today, we can take a routine job,

Danas možemo uzeti rutinski posao

codify it in a set of machine-readable instructions,

kodirati ga u komplet uputstava koje mašina može da čita

and then replicate it a million times.

i onda ga ponoviti milion puta.

You know, I recently overheard a conversation

Skoro sam načuo razgovor

that epitomizes these new economics.

koji je savršen primer ove nove ekonomije.

This guy says, "Nah, I don't use H&R Block anymore.

Neki tip kaže: "Ne, više ne koristim H&R Block.

TurboTax does everything that my tax preparer did,

TurboTax radi sve što je radila i moja osoba za porez,

but it's faster, cheaper and more accurate."

ali brže je, jeftinije i preciznije."

How can a skilled worker

Kako obučen radnik

compete with a $39 piece of software?

može da se takmiči sa softverom od 39 dolara?

She can't.

Ne može.

Today, millions of Americans do have faster,

Danas milioni Amerikanaca imaju bržu,

cheaper, more accurate tax preparation,

jeftiniju i precizniju pripremu poreza,

and the founders of Intuit

i osnivači Intuita

have done very well for themselves.

su se veoma dobro obezbedili.

But 17 percent of tax preparers no longer have jobs.

Ali 17% poreskih radnika više nema posao.

That is a microcosm of what's happening,

To je mikrokosmos onoga što se dešava,

not just in software and services, but in media and music,

ne samo sa softverom i uslugama, nego i u medijima i muzici,

in finance and manufacturing, in retailing and trade --

u finansijama i proizvodnji, u maloprodaji i trgovini -

in short, in every industry.

ukratko, u svakoj grani privrede.

People are racing against the machine,

Ljudi se trkaju protiv mašina,

and many of them are losing that race.

i puno njih će tu trku izgubiti.

What can we do to create shared prosperity?

Šta možemo uraditi da stvorimo zajednički prosperitet?

The answer is not to try to slow down technology.

Odgovor je da ne smemo pokušavati da usporimo tehnologiju.

Instead of racing against the machine,

Umesto trke protiv mašine,

we need to learn to race with the machine.

treba da naučimo da trčimo zajedno s mašinom.

That is our grand challenge.

To je naš veliki izazov.

The new machine age

Novo doba mašina

can be dated to a day 15 years ago

se može obeležiti jednog dana pre 15 godina,

when Garry Kasparov, the world chess champion,

kada je Gari Kasparov, svetski šampion u šahu

played Deep Blue, a supercomputer.

igrao protiv superkompjutera Deep Blue.

The machine won that day,

Mašina je pobedila tog dana,

and today, a chess program running on a cell phone

a danas program za šah na našem telefonu

can beat a human grandmaster.

može da pobedi ljudskog velemajstora.

It got so bad that, when he was asked

Došlo je do toga da kada su pitali

what strategy he would use against a computer,

Jana Donera, holandskog velemajstora

Jan Donner, the Dutch grandmaster, replied,

koju strategiju bi koristio protiv kompjutera, odgovorio je:

"I'd bring a hammer."

"Poneo bih čekić."

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

But today a computer is no longer the world chess champion.

Ali kompjuter danas više nije svetski velemajstor u šahu.

Neither is a human,

Nije ni čovek,

because Kasparov organized a freestyle tournament

jer je Kasparov organizovao turnir u slobodnom stilu

where teams of humans and computers

gde su ekipe ljudi i kompjutera

could work together,

radile zajedno

and the winning team had no grandmaster,

i pobednički tim nije imao velemajstora,

and it had no supercomputer.

nije imao superkompjuter.

What they had was better teamwork,

Imali su bolji timski rad

and they showed that a team of humans and computers,

i pokazali su da ekipa ljudi i kompjutera

working together, could beat any computer

koji rade zajedno može da pobedi bilo koji kompjuter

or any human working alone.

ili bilo kog čoveka koji rade sami.

Racing with the machine

Trka zajedno s mašinom nadjačava

beats racing against the machine.

trku protiv mašine.

Technology is not destiny.

Tehnologija nije naša sudbina.

We shape our destiny.

Mi oblikujemo svoju sudbinu.

Thank you.

Hvala vam.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)