How to win at evolution and survive a mass extinction | Lauren Sallan

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

Congratulations.

Čestitam.

By being here,

Time što ste ovde,

listening, alive,

što slušate, što ste živi,

a member of a growing species,

pripadnici vrste koja se uvećava,

you are one of history's greatest winners --

nalazite se među najvećim pobednicima u istoriji,

the culmination of a success story four billion years in the making.

što je kulminacija priče o uspehu koja je nastajala četiri milijarde godina.

You are life's one percent.

Vi ste privilegovana grupa u prirodi.

The losers,

Gubitnici,

the 99 percent of species who have ever lived,

99 posto vrsta koje su ikada živele,

are dead --

mrtvi su -

killed by fire, flood, asteroids,

ubila ih je vatra, poplava, asteroidi,

predation, starvation, ice, heat

predacija, izgladnjivanje, hladnoća, vrućina

and the cold math of natural selection.

i hladnokrvni proračun prirodne selekcije.

Your ancestors,

Vaši preci,

back to the earliest fishes,

još od prvih riba,

overcame all these challenges.

prevazišli su sve te izazove.

You are here because of golden opportunities

Ovde ste zbog zlatnih prilika

made possible by mass extinction.

koje je omogućilo masovno izumiranje.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

It's true.

Istina je.

The same is true of your co-winners and relatives.

Ovo važi i za one koji su pobedili zajedno sa vama i vaše srodnike.

The 34,000 kinds of fishes.

Za 34 000 vrsta riba.

How did we all get so lucky?

Kako smo imali toliko sreće?

Will we continue to win?

Hoćemo li nastaviti da pobeđujemo?

I am a fish paleobiologist who uses big data --

Ja sam riblji paleobiolog koji koristi velike podatke,

the fossil record --

fosilne ostatke,

to study how some species win and others lose.

radi izučavanja načina na koje neke vrste pobeđuju, a druge gube.

One koje su u životu nam to ne mogu reći;

The living can't tell us;

they know nothing but winning.

znaju samo za pobeđivanje.

So, we must speak with the dead.

Zato moramo da razgovaramo sa mrtvima.

How do we make dead fishes talk?

Kako da nateramo mrtve ribe da progovore?

Museums contain multitudes of beautiful fish fossils,

Muzeji sadrže mnoštvo prelepih fosila riba,

but their real beauty emerges

ali njihova prava lepota se pojavljuje

when combined with the larger number of ugly, broken fossils,

u kombinaciji sa većim brojem ružnih, polomljenih fosila

and reduced to ones and zeros.

svedenih na jedinice i nule.

I can trawl a 500-million-year database for evolutionary patterns.

Mogu izvući bazu podataka za evolucione obrasce tokom 500 miliona godina.

For example,

Na primer,

fish forms can be captured by coordinates

oblici riba se mogu zabeležiti pomoću koordinata

and transformed to reveal major pathways of change

i transformisati tako da otkriju glavne puteve promena

and trends through time.

i trendove kroz vreme.

Here is the story of the winners and losers

Evo priče o pobednicima i gubitnicima

of just one pivotal event I discovered using fossil data.

samo jednog važnog događaja koju sam otkrila pomoću fosilnih podataka.

Let's travel back 360 million years --

Vratimo se 360 miliona godina unazad -

six times as long ago as the last dinosaur --

šest puta više vremena nego od poslednjeg dinosaurusa -

to the Devonian period;

u period devona;

a strange world.

čudan svet.

Armored predators with razor-edge jaws dominated

Dominirali su predatori naoružani oštrim čeljustima,

alongside huge fishes with arm bones in their fins.

zajedno sa ogromnim ribama sa kostima u perajima.

Crab-like fishes scuttled across the sea floor.

Ribe nalik na rakove jurcale su po morskom dnu.

The few ray-fin relatives of salmon and tuna

Nekolicina zrakoperki, rođaka lososa i tune,

cowered at the bottom of the food chain.

bilo je pritajeno na dnu lanca ishrane.

The few early sharks lived offshore in fear.

Nekoliko prvih ajkula živelo je u strahu udaljeno od obala.

Your few four-legged ancestors, the tetrapods,

Nekoliko vaših predaka sa četiri noge, tetrapoda,

struggled in tropical river plains.

mučilo se u tropskim rečnim dolinama.

Ecosystems were crowded.

Ekosistemi su bili skučeni.

There was no escape,

Nije bilo izlaza,

no opportunity in sight.

niti prilike na vidiku.

Then the world ended.

Tada je nastao smak sveta.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

No, it is a good thing.

Ne, to je dobra stvar.

96 percent of all fish species died

Devedeset šest posto svih vrsta riba je umrlo

during the Hangenberg event, 359 million years ago:

tokom Hangenbergovog događaja, pre 359 miliona godina,

an interval of fire and ice.

što je interval vatre i leda.

A crowded world was disrupted and swept away.

Prenatrpan svet je prekinut i zbrisan.

Now, you might think that's the end of the story.

Možda ćete pomisliti da je to kraj priče.

The mighty fell, the meek inherited the earth,

Moćnici su pali, smerni su nasledili zemlju,

and here we are.

i eto nas ovde.

But winning is not that simple.

Ali, pobeđivanje nije tako jednostavno.

The handful of survivors came from many groups --

Šačica preživelih potekla je iz više grupa,

all greatly outnumbered by their own dead.

a većinom ih je brojalo manje nego što ih je bilo mrtvih.

They ranged from top predator to bottom-feeder,

Bilo ih je u rasponu od velikih predatora do onih koji se hrane na dnu,

big to small,

od velikih do malih,

marine to freshwater.

od morskih do slatkovodnih.

The extinction was a filter.

Izumiranje je bilo filter.

It merely leveled the playing field.

Prosto je izbalansiralo situaciju.

What really counted was what survivors did over the next several million years

Ono što je zaista bilo bitno je šta su preživeli radili

tokom narednih nekoliko miliona godina u tom razorenom svetu.

in that devastated world.

The former overlords should have had an advantage.

Trebalo bi da su bivši gospodari imali prednost.

They became even larger,

Postali su još veći,

storing energy,

čuvali su energiju,

investing in their young,

ulagali u svoje mlade,

spreading across the globe,

širili se po planeti,

feasting on fishes,

hranili se ribama,

keeping what had always worked, and biding their time.

nastavili sa onim što je uvek funkcionisalo

i ubijali vreme.

Yet they merely persisted for a while,

Ipak, samo su istrajali neko vreme,

declining without innovating,

propadajući bez inovativnosti,

becoming living fossils.

postavši živi fosili.

They were too stuck in their ways

Suviše su se ukopali u svoje načine

and are now largely forgotten.

i sada su većim delom zaboravljeni.

A few of the long-suffering ray-fins, sharks and four-legged tetrapods

Nekoliko zrakoperki koje su se dugo mučile,

ajkula i četvoronožnih tetrapoda krenulo je u suprotnom pravcu.

went the opposite direction.

They became smaller --

Postali su manji -

living fast, dying young,

živeli su brzo, umirali mladi,

eating little and reproducing rapidly.

jeli malo i brzo se razmnožavali.

They tried new foods,

Isprobavali su novu hranu,

different homes,

različita staništa,

strange heads and weird bodies.

neobične glave i čudna tela.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

And they found opportunity, proliferated,

Pronašli su priliku, razmnožili se

and won the future for their 60,000 living species,

i izborili se za budućnost za svojih 60 000 živih vrsta,

including you.

ukljućujući vas.

That's why they look familiar.

Zato izgledaju poznato.

You know their names.

Znate njihova imena.

Winning is not about random events

Pobeđivanje nema veze sa nasumičnim događajima

or an arms race.

ili trkom u naoružanju.

Rather, survivors went down alternative, evolutionary pathways.

Umesto toga, preživeli su krenuli alternativnim evolucionim stazama.

Some found incredible success,

Neki su došli do neverovatnog uspeha,

while others became dead fish walking.

dok su drugi postali mrtva riba koja hoda.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

A real scientific term.

To je pravi naučni termin.

(Laughter)

(Smeh)

I am now investigating

Trenutno istražujem

how these pathways to victory and defeat repeat across time.

kako se te staze pobede i poraza ponavljaju tokom vremena.

My lab has already compiled thousands upon thousands of dead fishes,

Moja laboratorija je već prikupila hiljade mrtvih riba,

but many more remain.

ali mnogo ih je još ostalo.

However, it is already clear

Međutim, već je jasno

that your ancestors' survival through mass extinction,

da je opstanak vaših predaka kroz masovno izumiranje

and their responses in the aftermath

i njihov posledični odgovor

made you who you are today.

proizveo ono što ste danas.

What does this tell us for the future?

Šta nam ovo poručuje vezano za budućnost?

As long as a handful of species survive,

Dok god nekolicina vrsta preživi,

life will recover.

život će se oporaviti.

The versatile and the lucky will not just replace what was lost,

Prilagodljivi i srećni neće samo zameniti ono što je izgubljeno,

but win in new forms.

već će pobediti u novom obliku.

It just might take several million years.

Samo će za to možda trebati nekoliko miliona godina.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)