Robert Muggah: How to protect fast-growing cities from failing

52,178 views ・ 2015-01-15

TED


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Prevodilac: Adisa Ejubovic Lektor: Mile Živković
00:12
We can cut violent deaths around the world
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Možemo da umanjimo broj nasilnih smrti u svetu
00:17
by 50 percent in the next three decades.
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za 50 posto u naredne tri decenije.
00:22
All we have to do is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,
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Sve što treba da uradimo je da smanjimo broj ubistava za 2,3 posto godišnje
00:27
and we'll hit that target.
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i postići ćemo željeni cilj.
00:29
You don't believe me?
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Ne verujete mi?
00:31
Well, the leading epidemiologists and criminologists around the world
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Izgleda da vodeći epidemolozi i kriminolozi u svetu
00:34
seem to think we can, and so do I,
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misle da možemo, a i ja to mislim,
00:37
but only if we focus on our cities, especially the most fragile ones.
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ali samo ukoliko se fokusiramo na naše gradove, posebno na one najnestabilnije.
00:42
You see, I've been thinking about this a lot.
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Znate, mnogo sam razmišljao o ovome.
00:46
For the last 20 years, I've been working
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U poslednjih 20 godina, radim
00:48
in countries and cities ripped apart by conflict,
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u zemljama i gradovima koje su razorili konflikti,
00:51
violence, terrorism, or some insidious combination of all.
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nasilje, terorizam, ili neka kobna kombinacija svega navedenog.
00:55
I've tracked gun smugglers from Russia to Somalia,
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Jurio sam krijumčare oružja od Rusije do Somalije,
00:59
I've worked with warlords in Afghanistan and the Congo,
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radio sam sa vojskovođama u Avganistanu i Kongu.
01:02
I've counted cadavers in Colombia, in Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.
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Brojao sam leševe u Kolumbiji, Haitiju, Šri Lanki, Papua Novoj Gvineji.
01:08
You don't need to be on the front line, though,
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Doduše, ne morate biti na bojištu,
01:10
to get a sense that our planet is spinning out of control, right?
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kako biste stekli utisak da se naša planeta opire kontroli, zar ne?
01:13
There's this feeling that international instability is the new normal.
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Stiče se osećaj da je međunarodna nestabilnost novi standard.
01:18
But I want you to take a closer look,
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Želim da pažljivije pogledate
01:20
and I think you'll see that the geography of violence is changing,
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i vidite da se geografija nasilja menja
01:23
because it's not so much our nation states that are gripped by conflict and crime
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jer nisu same države u košmaru konflikta i kriminala
01:27
as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas, Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
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koliko naši gradovi: Alepo, Bamako, Karakas, Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
01:35
Violence is migrating to the metropole.
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Nasilje se seli u metropole.
01:38
And maybe this is to be expected, right?
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A ovo je možda bilo i očekivano.
01:40
After all, most people today, they live in cities, not the countryside.
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Na kraju krajeva, većina ljudi danas živi u gradovima, ne u selima.
01:44
Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities, account for two thirds of global GDP.
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Samo 600 gradova, uključujući i 30 megagradova, obuhvata 2/3 svetskog BDP-a.
01:50
But when it comes to cities,
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Kada su u pitanju naši gradovi,
01:52
the conversation is dominated by the North,
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dijalog je uspostavljen na Severu,
01:55
that is, North America, Western Europe, Australia and Japan,
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tj, Severnoj Americi, Zapadnoj Evropi, Australiji i Japanu,
01:58
where violence is actually at historic lows.
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gde je nasilje najniže u istoriji.
02:01
As a result, city enthusiasts, they talk about the triumph of the city,
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Kao rezultat toga, zaljubljenici u gradove pričaju o trijumfu gradova,
02:06
of the creative classes, and the mayors that will rule the world.
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o kreativnim klasama, o tome kako će gradonačelnici da vode svet.
02:10
Now, I hope that mayors do one day rule the world,
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Ja se nadam da će gradonačelnici jednog dana vladati svetom,
02:13
but, you know, the fact is,
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ali, znate, činjenica je
02:15
we don't hear any conversation, really, about what is happening in the South.
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da ne čujemo nikakve razgovore o tome šta se dešava na jugu.
02:20
And by South, I mean Latin America, Africa, Asia,
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Pod jugom podrazumevam Južnu Ameriku, Afriku, Aziju,
02:24
where violence in some cases is accelerating,
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gde se nasilje u nekim slučajevima ubrzava,
02:27
where infrastructure is overstretched,
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gde je infrastruktura zategnuta
02:29
and where governance is sometimes an aspiration and not a reality.
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i gde je dobra vladavina samo težnja, a ne stvarnost.
02:34
Now, some diplomats and development experts and specialists,
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Neke diplomate i stručnjaci za razvoj i specijalisti
02:38
they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states
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pričaju o 40 do 50 nestabilnih država
02:41
that will shape security in the 21st century.
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koje će oblikovati sigurnost 21. veka.
02:44
I think it's fragile cities which will define the future of order and disorder.
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Mislim da će nestabilni gradovi definisati budućnost reda i nereda.
02:50
That's because warfare and humanitarian action
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To je zato što će ratovi i humanitarna dela
02:53
are going to be concentrated in our cities,
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biti skoncentrisani u našim gradovima
02:55
and the fight for development,
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i borbe za razvoj,
bilo da je u pitanju iskorenje siromaštva,
02:57
whether you define that as eradicating poverty,
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02:59
universal healthcare, beating back climate change,
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ili globalni zdavstveni sistem, ili borba protiv klimatskih promena
03:02
will be won or lost in the shantytowns, slums and favelas of our cities.
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će se dobijati ili gubiti u siromašnim četvrtima i straćarama naših gradova.
03:07
I want to talk to you about four megarisks
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Želim da pričam o 4 mega rizika
03:10
that I think will define fragility in our time,
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za koja smatram da će definisati nestabilnost našeg vremena,
03:13
and if we can get to grips with these,
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i mislim da ako se uhvatimo u koštac s njima
možemo da nešto uradimo povodom onog problema sa nasiljem.
03:16
I think we can do something with that lethal violence problem.
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03:18
So let me start with some good news.
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Počeću sa lepim vestima.
03:21
Fact is, we're living in the most peaceful moment in human history.
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Činjenica je da živimo u najmirnijem trenutku u istoriji čovečanstva.
03:26
Steven Pinker and others have shown how the intensity and frequency of conflict
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Stiven Pinker i ostali su pokazali kako je zabeležena najniža stopa
03:30
is actually at an all-time low.
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sukoba u istoriji.
03:33
Now, Gaza, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine,
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Gaza, Sirija, Sudan, Ukrajina -
03:37
as ghastly as these conflicts are, and they are horrific,
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koliko god da su stravični ovi sukobi, a jesu užasni,
03:41
they represent a relatively small blip upwards
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oni predstavljaju relativno mali rast
03:43
in a 50-year-long secular decline.
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unutar jednog 50-godišnjeg pada.
03:46
What's more, we're seeing a dramatic reduction in homicide.
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Pored toga, svedoci smo velikog pada stope ubistva.
03:51
Manuel Eisner and others have shown
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Manuel Ajsner i ostali su pokazali
03:53
that for centuries, we've seen this incredible drop in murder,
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da već vekovima stopa ubistava drastično opada,
03:57
especially in the West.
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pogotovo na Zapadu.
03:59
Most Northern cities today are 100 times safer than they were just 100 years ago.
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Većina severnjačkih gradova su danas 100 puta sigurniji nego pre 100 godina.
04:04
These two facts -- the decline in armed conflict and the decline in murder --
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Ove dve činjenice - pad u oružanim sukobima i pad ubistava,
04:08
are amongst the most extraordinary,
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neka su od najneverovatnijih
04:09
if unheralded, accomplishments of human history,
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postignuća u istoriji čovečanstva,
04:12
and we should be really excited, right?
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i trebalo bi da smo jako uzbuđeni.
04:15
Well, yeah, we should.
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Da, trebalo bi.
04:17
There's just one problem: These two scourges are still with us.
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Samo postoji jedan problem: ove dve stvari nas i dalje muče.
04:22
You see, 525,000 people -- men, women, boys and girls --
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525.000 ljudi, muškaraca, žena, dečaka i devojčica,
04:28
die violently every single year.
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umre nasilnim putem, svake godine.
04:31
Research I've been doing with Keith Krause and others
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Istraživanje koje sam obavio sa Kitom Krausom i ostalima
04:33
has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000 people are dying in war zones violently.
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pokazalo je da između 50.000 i 60.000 ljudi pogine u ratnim zonama.
04:39
The rest, almost 500,000 people, are dying outside of conflict zones.
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Ostatak, skoro 500.000 ljudi umre izvan zona sukoba.
04:44
In other words, 10 times more people are dying outside of war than inside war.
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Drugim rečima, 10 puta više ljudi umre van rata nego u ratu.
04:50
What's more, violence is moving south,
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Štaviše, nasilje se pomera prema jugu,
04:53
to Latin America and the Caribbean,
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do Južne Amerike i Kariba,
04:56
to parts of Central and Southern Africa,
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do delova centralne i južne Afrike,
04:58
and to bits of the Middle East and Central Asia.
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i do delova Srednjeg istoka i centralne Azije.
05:01
Forty of the 50 most dangerous cities in the world
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Od 50 najopasnijih gradova u svetu,
05:04
are right here in Latin America,
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njih 40 je ovde u Južnoj Americi,
05:05
13 in Brazil,
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13 u Brazilu.
05:07
and the most dangerous of all, it's San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,
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Najopasniji od svih je San Pedro Sula, drugi po veličini grad u Hondurasu,
05:12
with a staggering homicide rate of 187 murders per 100,000 people.
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čija je vrtoglava stopa ubistva 187 ubistava na 100.000 ljudi.
05:17
That's 23 times the global average.
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To je 23 puta više u odnosu na svetski prosek.
05:20
Now, if violence is re-concentrating geographically,
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Ako nasilje geografski menja svoju lokaciju,
05:23
it's also being reconfigured to the world's new topography,
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ono se takođe rekonfiguriše u svetskoj topografiji,
05:26
because when it comes to cities, the world ain't flat,
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jer kada su u pitanju gradovi, svet nije ravna linija,
05:28
like Thomas Friedman likes to say.
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kao što Tomas Fridmen voli da kaže.
05:31
It's spiky.
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On ide cik-cak.
05:32
The dominance of the city as the primary mode of urban living
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Dominantnost grada kao primarnog načina urbanog života
05:36
is one of the most extraordinary demographic reversals in history,
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jedan je od najneverovatnijih demografskih preokreta u istoriji,
05:40
and it all happened so fast.
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i sve se desilo jako brzo.
05:43
You all know the figures, right?
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Svi vi znate statistiku, zar ne?
05:45
There's 7.3 billion people in the world today;
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Na svetu danas živi 7,3 milijarde ljudi
05:47
there will be 9.6 billion by 2050.
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i do 2050. biće ih 9,6.
05:49
But consider this one fact:
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Uzmite u obzir ovu činjenicu:
05:51
In the 1800s, one in 30 people lived in cities,
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u 19. veku jedna od 30 osoba je živela u gradu,
05:55
today it's one in two,
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danas je to jedna od dve,
05:57
and tomorrow virtually everyone is going to be there.
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a sutra će skoro svi biti tamo.
06:00
And this expansion in urbanization is going to be neither even nor equitable.
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Širenje usled urbanizacije neće biti niti ravnomerno niti jednako za sve.
06:04
The vast majority, 90 percent,
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Velika većina, 90 posto,
06:06
will be happening in the South, in cities of the South.
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će se odvijati na jugu, u gradovima juga.
06:10
So urban geographers and demographers,
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Urbani geografi i demografi kažu
06:13
they tell us that it's not necessarily the size or even the density of cities
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da veličina i gustoća u gradovima ne mora biti
06:18
that predicts violence, no.
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isključiv pokazatelj nasilja. Ne.
06:20
Tokyo, with 35 million people,
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Tokio sa 35 miliona ljudi je jedna
06:22
is one of the largest, and some might say safest, urban metropolises in the world.
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od najvećih, a neki kažu, i najsigurnijih urbanih metropola na svetu.
06:27
No, it's the speed of urbanization that matters.
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Ovde je bitna brzina urbanizacije.
06:30
I call this turbo-urbanization, and it's one of the key drivers of fragility.
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Ja to zovem turbo-urbanizacijom i ona je jedna od ključnih pokretača nestabilnosti.
06:36
When you think about the incredible expansion of these cities,
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Kada pomislite na neverovatno širenje ovih gradova
06:41
and you think about turbo-urbanization, think about Karachi.
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i pomislite na turbo-urbanizaciju, pomislite na Karači.
06:45
Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947, a hustling, bustling city.
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Karači je 1947. bio užurban grad od oko pola miliona stanovnika.
06:51
Today, it's 21 million people,
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Danas on ima 21 milion stanovnika,
06:54
and apart from accounting for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,
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i osim što zauzima 3 četvrtine BDP-a u Pakistanu,
06:58
it's also one of the most violent cities in South Asia.
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on je i jedan od najnasilnijih gradova u južnoj Aziji.
07:01
Dhaka, Lagos, Kinshasa,
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Daka, Lagos, Kinšasa.
07:04
these cities are now 40 times larger than they were in the 1950s.
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Ovi gradovi su 40 puta veći nego što su bili '50-ih.
07:09
Now take a look at New York.
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Pogledajmo sada Njujork.
07:11
The Big Apple, it took 150 years to get to eight million people.
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Velikoj jabuci je trebalo 150 godina da dostigne 8 miliona ljudi.
07:16
São Paulo, Mexico City, took 15 to reach that same interval.
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Sao Paolu i Meksiko Sitiju je trebalo 15 za isti rezultat.
07:21
Now, what do these medium, large, mega-, and hypercities look like?
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Kako ovi osrednji, veliki, mega i hiper gradovi izgledaju?
07:25
What is their profile?
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Kakav je njihov profil?
07:27
Well, for one thing, they're young.
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Kao prvo, oni su mladi.
07:29
What we're seeing in many of them is the rise of the youth bulge.
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Ono što viđamo kod mnogih je nagli porast mlade populacije.
07:32
Now, this is actually a good news story.
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Ovo su zapravo dobre vesti.
07:34
It's a function of reductions in child mortality rates.
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Služi za smanjenje stope smrtnosti dece.
07:37
But the youth bulge is something we've got to watch.
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Ali moramo se paziti naglog porasta mlade populacije.
07:39
What it basically means
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To u suštini znači
07:41
is the proportion of young people living in our fragile cities
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da je razmer mladih ljudi koji žive u našim nestabilnim gradovima
07:44
is much larger than those living in our healthier and wealthier ones.
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mnogo veći od onih koji žive u našim zdravijim i bogatijim gradovima.
07:47
In some fragile cities,
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U nekim nestabilim gradovima
07:49
75 percent of the population is under the age of 30.
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75 posto populacije ima ispod 30 godina.
07:52
Think about that: Three in four people are under 30.
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Razmislite o ovome: tri od četvoro ljudi ima ispod 30 godina.
07:57
It's like Palo Alto on steroids.
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To je kao Palo Alto na steroidima.
08:00
Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example,
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Ako pogledate Mogadišu,
08:03
in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old.
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srednja dob je 16 godina.
08:07
Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul.
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Isto važi i za Daku, Dili i Kabul.
08:10
And Tokyo? It's 46.
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A Tokio? 46.
08:12
Same for most Western European cities.
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Isto važi i za većinu zapadne Evrope.
08:16
Now, it's not just youth that necessarily predicts violence.
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Ne mora značiti da samo omladina uslovljava nasilje.
08:19
That's one factor among many,
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To je jedan od mnogih faktora,
08:21
but youthfulness combined with unemployment, lack of education,
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ali omladina u kombinaciji sa nezaposlenjem, manjkom obrazovanja
08:24
and -- this is the kicker -- being male, is a deadly proposition.
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i, pazite sad ovo, muškom populacijom je smrtonosna jednačina.
08:28
They're statistically correlated, all those risk factors, with youth,
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Ti faktori rizika su statistički povezani sa omladinom
08:32
and they tend to relate to increases in violence.
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i teže da indiciraju porast nasilja.
08:36
Now, for those of you who are parents of teenage sons,
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Za one koji su roditelji sinova tinejdžera,
08:39
you know what I'm talking about, right?
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znate o čemu ja ovde govorim, zar ne?
08:41
Just imagine your boy without any structure
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Zamislite svog dečaka bez ikakve strukture,
08:44
with those unruly friends of his, out there cavorting about.
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zajedno sa svojim neposlušnim prijateljima kako prave dar-mar.
08:47
Now, take away the parents,
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Sada uklonite roditelje,
08:50
take away the education, limit the education possibilities,
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uklonite obrazovanje i ograničite mogućnosti za obrazovanje,
08:54
sprinkle in a little bit of drugs, alcohol and guns,
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začinite to sa malo droge, alkohola i oružja
08:57
and sit back and watch the fireworks.
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i zavalite se i uživajte u vatrometu.
09:00
The implications are disconcerting.
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Implikacije su uznemirujuće.
09:03
Right here in Brazil, the life expectancy is 73.6 years.
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Ovde u Brazilu životni vek je 73,6.
09:06
If you live in Rio, I'm sorry, shave off two right there.
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Ako živite u Riju, smanjite to za dve.
09:10
But if you're young, you're uneducated,
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Ali ako ste mladi, neobrazovani,
09:12
you lack employment, you're black, and you're male,
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nezaposleni crnac,
09:15
your life expectancy drops to less than 60 years old.
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vaš životni vek pada na manje od 60 godina.
09:18
There's a reason why youthfulness and violence are the number one killers
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Postoji razlog zašto su mladost i nasilje glavni faktori smrtnosti
09:23
in this country.
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u ovoj zemlji.
09:25
Okay, so it's not all doom and gloom in our cities.
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Ali našim gradovima ne hara samo propast.
09:28
After all, cities are hubs of innovation,
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Oni su ipak žarišta inovacija,
09:31
dynamism, prosperity, excitement, connectivity.
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dinamike, prosperiteta, uzbuđenja, veza.
09:34
They're where the smart people gather.
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Oni su mesta gde se pametni ljudi sastaju.
09:36
And those young people I just mentioned,
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Ti mladi ljudi koje sam upravo spomenuo
09:38
they're more digitally savvy and tech-aware than ever before.
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su mnogo više digitalno osvešćeni nego ikada.
09:42
And this explosion, the Internet, and mobile technology,
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Ova eksplozija interneta i mobilne tehnologije
09:46
means that the digital divide separating the North and the South
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znači da se smanjuje digitalna granica koja razdvaja sever i jug
09:49
between countries and within them, is shrinking.
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između zemalja i unutar njih.
09:53
But as we've heard so many times,
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Ali kao što smo mnogo puta čuli,
09:54
these new technologies are dual-edged, right?
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ove nove tehnologije su mač sa dve oštrice.
09:57
Take the case of law enforcement.
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Uzmite za primer sprovođenje zakona.
09:59
Police around the world are starting to use remote sensing and big data
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Policija širom sveta počinje da koristi daljinske senzore i velike podatke
10:03
to anticipate crime.
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kako bi predvidela zločin.
10:04
Some cops are able to predict criminal violence before it even happens.
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Neki policajci mogu da predvide nasilje pre nego što se i desi.
10:09
The future crime scenario, it's here today,
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Scenario budućih zločina je danas ovde
10:12
and we've got to be careful.
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i mi moramo da budemo pažljivi.
10:14
We have to manage the issues of the public safety
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Moramo da radimo na pitanjima javne bezbednosti
10:16
against rights to individual privacy.
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u odnosu na prava na individualnu privatnost.
10:18
But it's not just the cops who are innovating.
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Nisu samo policajci inovativni.
10:21
We've heard extraordinary activities of civil society groups
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Čuli smo o neverovatnim aktivnostima grupa građanskog društva
10:23
who are engaging in local and global collective action,
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koje se angažuju u lokalnim i globalnim kolektivnim akcijama
10:27
and this is leading to digital protest and real revolution.
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što vodi do digitalnog protesta i prave revolucije.
10:31
But most worrying of all are criminal gangs
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Ali najviše od svega brinu kriminalne bande
10:35
who are going online and starting to colonize cyberspace.
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koje se šire onlajn i počinju da kolonizuju sajber prostor.
10:38
In Ciudad Juárez in Mexico, where I've been working,
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U Sijudad Huarezu u Meksiku gde sam radio,
10:41
groups like the Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel
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grupe poput Zeta i kartela Sinaloa
10:43
are hijacking social media.
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otimaju društvene medije.
10:45
They're using it to recruit, to sell their products,
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Koriste ih za regrutaciju i prodaju proizvoda,
10:47
to coerce, to intimidate and to kill.
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za iznudu, zastrašivanje i ubijanje.
10:49
Violence is going virtual.
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Nasilje prelazi u virtuelan prostor.
10:53
So this is just a partial sketch
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Ovo je samo delimična skica
10:55
of a fast-moving and dynamic and complex situation.
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ubrzane, dinamične i složene situacije.
10:57
I mean, there are many other megarisks
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Postoje i drugi mega rizici
10:59
that are going to define fragility in our time,
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koji će definisati nestabilnost u našem vremenu
11:02
not least income inequality,
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gde će se sigurno naći i nejednakosti u prihodima,
11:04
poverty, climate change, impunity.
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siromaštvo, promene u klimi, nekažnjivost.
11:07
But we're facing a stark dilemma
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Ali suočeni smo sa potpunom dilemom
11:10
where some cities are going to thrive and drive global growth
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gde će neki gradovi prosperirati i biti globalni pokretači rasta,
11:14
and others are going to stumble and pull it backwards.
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a drugi će posrtati i povlačiti ih dole.
11:17
If we're going to change course, we need to start a conversation.
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Ako želimo da promenimo pravac, moraćemo da započnemo dijalog.
11:20
We can't only focus on those cities that work,
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Ne možemo samo da se fokusiramo na gradove koji funkcionišu,
11:23
the Singapores, the Kuala Lumpurs,
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na Singapure, Kuala Lumpure,
11:25
the Dubais, the Shanghais.
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Dubaije, Šangaje.
11:27
We've got to bring those fragile cities into the conversation.
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Moramo da u dijalog uvedemo i nestabilne gradove.
11:32
One way to do this might be to start twinning
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Jedna od strategija bi mogla biti bratimljenje
11:34
our fragile cities with our healthier and wealthier ones,
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naših nestabilnih gradova sa zdravijim i imućnijim gradovima;
11:37
kickstarting a process of learning and collaboration
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započinjanje procesa učenja i saradnje,
11:39
and sharing of practices, of what works and what doesn't.
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i deljenja praksi, onoga što funkcioniše i ne.
11:44
A wonderful example of this is coming from El Salvador and Los Angeles,
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Divan primer toga dolazi iz El Salvadora i Los Anđelesa
11:47
where the mayors in San Salvador and Los Angeles are collaborating
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gde gradonačelnici San Salvadora i Los Anđelesa sarađuju
11:51
on getting ex-gang members to work with current gang members,
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tako što nagovaraju bivše članove bandi da rade sa trenutnim članovima bandi,
11:55
offering tutoring, education,
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daju im instrukcije, obrazovanje
11:58
and in the process are helping incubate cease-fires and truces,
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i u procesu toga pomažu u izgradnji pomirenja i prekidu vatre.
12:01
and we've seen homicide rates go down in San Salvador,
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Stopa ubistva u San Salvadoru,
12:04
once the world's most violent city,
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jednom od najnasilnijih gradova,
12:06
by 50 percent.
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se smanjila za 50 posto.
12:07
We can also focus on hot cities, but also hot spots.
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Možemo i da se fokusiramo na žarišne gradove ali i žarišne tačke.
12:10
Place and location matter fundamentally in shaping violence in our cities.
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Lokacija je od suštinske važnosti u oblikovanju nasilja u našim gradovima.
12:14
Did you know that between one and two percent
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Da li ste znali da između 1 i 2 posto adresa
12:17
of street addresses in any fragile city
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u bilo kom nestabilnom gradu
12:19
can predict up to 99 percent of violent crime?
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može da predvidi do 99% nasilnih zločina?
12:23
Take the case of São Paulo, where I've been working.
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Uzmite primer Sao Paola gde sam radio.
12:25
It's gone from being Brazil's most dangerous city to one of its safest,
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Prešao je iz najopasnijeg grada u Brazilu u jedan od najsigurnijih,
12:29
and it did this by doubling down
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a to je postigao udvostručivši
12:31
on information collection, hot spot mapping, and police reform,
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sakupljanje informacija i mapiranje žarišta i policijsku reformu.
12:34
and in the process, it dropped homicide by 70 percent in just over 10 years.
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U samo 10 godina smanjio je broj ubistava za 70 posto.
12:39
We also got to focus on those hot people.
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Takođe treba da se fokusiramo i na žarišne grupe ljudi.
12:42
It's tragic, but being young, unemployed, uneducated, male,
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Tragično je, ali ako ste mlad, nezaposlen i neobrazovan muškarac
12:46
increases the risks of being killed and killing.
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to povećava rizik da budete ubijeni i da ubijete.
12:50
We have to break this cycle of violence
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Moramo da prekinemo začarani krug nasilja
12:52
and get in there early with our children, our youngest children,
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i da počnemo rano, sa svojom najmlađom decom
12:56
and valorize them, not stigmatize them.
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i ohrabrimo ih, a ne stigmatišemo.
12:59
There's wonderful work that's happening that I've been involved with
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Trenutno se odvija divan posao u koji sam i ja umešan
13:02
in Kingston, Jamaica and right here in Rio,
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u Kingstonu na Jamajci i ovde u Riju,
13:04
which is putting education, employment, recreation
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koji pruža obrazovanje, zaposlenje
i rekreaciju za ove visoko rizične grupe,
13:08
up front for these high-risk groups,
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13:10
and as a result, we're seeing violence going down in their communities.
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a rezultat je pad nasilja u njihovim zajednicama.
13:13
We've also got to make our cities safer, more inclusive, and livable for all.
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Moramo da učinimo naše gradove sigurnijim, inkluzivnijim i boljim za život za sve.
13:17
The fact is, social cohesion matters.
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Činjenica je da je društvena kohezija bitna.
13:21
Mobility matters in our cities.
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Mobilnost je bitna za naše gradove.
13:23
We've got to get away from this model of segregation, exclusion,
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Moramo da se udaljimo od ovog modela segregacije i izopštenja
13:26
and cities with walls.
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i gradova sa zidinama.
13:28
My favorite example of how to do this comes from Medellín.
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Moj omiljeni primer dolazi iz Medijena.
13:30
When I lived in Colombia in the late 1990s,
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Kada sam živeo u Kolumbiji kasnih '90-ih,
13:32
Medellín was the murder capital of the world, but it changed course,
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Medijen je bio prestonica ubistva u svetu, ali je promenio svoj pravac
13:36
and it did this by deliberately investing in its low-income and most violent areas
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tako što je svesno uložio u siromašna, najnasilnija područja
13:40
and integrating them with the middle-class ones
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i uključio ih u područja srednje klase
13:43
through a network of cable cars,
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kroz mrežu tramvaja,
13:44
of public transport, and first-class infrastructure,
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javnog prevoza i prvoklasne infrastrukture.
13:47
and in the process, it dropped homicide by 79 percent in just under two decades.
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U procesu je smanjio broj ubistava za 79% u samo dve decenije.
13:52
And finally, there's technology.
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Na kraju, tu je tehnologija.
13:55
Technology has enormous promise but also peril.
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Tehnologija nosi veliki potencijal, ali i veliki rizik.
13:57
We've seen examples here of extraordinary innovation,
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Videli smo primere neverovatnih inovacija
14:00
and much of it coming from this room,
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i puno njih je izašlo iz ove prostorije.
14:02
The police are engaging in predictive analytics.
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Policija se bavi analizom predviđanja.
14:04
Citizens are engaging in new crowdsourcing solutions.
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Građani zajedničkim naporima pronalaze nova rešenja.
14:07
Even my own group is involved in developing applications
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Čak je i moja grupa uključena u razradu aplikacija
14:09
to provide more accountability over police and increase safety among citizens.
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kako bi pokazali više odgovornosti od policije i povećali sigurnost.
14:14
But we need to be careful.
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Ali moramo da budemo pažljivi.
14:17
If I have one single message for you, it's this:
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Ako imam samo jednu poruku, onda je to ova:
14:21
There is nothing inevitable about lethal violence,
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smrtonosno nasilje se može izbeći
14:24
and we can make our cities safer.
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i mi možemo učiniti naše gradove sigurnijim.
14:29
Folks, we have the opportunity of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence
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Imamo priliku života da prepolovimo stopu ubistava
14:35
in half within our lifetime.
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za naših života.
14:38
So I have just one question:
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Imam samo jedno pitanje:
14:39
What are we waiting for?
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šta čekamo?
14:41
Thank you.
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Hvala.
14:43
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
About this website

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