Robert Muggah: How to protect fast-growing cities from failing

52,155 views ・ 2015-01-15

TED


Please double-click on the English subtitles below to play the video.

00:12
We can cut violent deaths around the world
0
12640
5230
00:17
by 50 percent in the next three decades.
1
17870
3090
00:22
All we have to do is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,
2
22120
5071
00:27
and we'll hit that target.
3
27191
2453
00:29
You don't believe me?
4
29644
1695
00:31
Well, the leading epidemiologists and criminologists around the world
5
31339
3274
00:34
seem to think we can, and so do I,
6
34613
2391
00:37
but only if we focus on our cities, especially the most fragile ones.
7
37004
5135
00:42
You see, I've been thinking about this a lot.
8
42139
4269
00:46
For the last 20 years, I've been working
9
46408
1912
00:48
in countries and cities ripped apart by conflict,
10
48320
3568
00:51
violence, terrorism, or some insidious combination of all.
11
51888
4017
00:55
I've tracked gun smugglers from Russia to Somalia,
12
55905
3506
00:59
I've worked with warlords in Afghanistan and the Congo,
13
59411
3172
01:02
I've counted cadavers in Colombia, in Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.
14
62583
5122
01:08
You don't need to be on the front line, though,
15
68285
2250
01:10
to get a sense that our planet is spinning out of control, right?
16
70535
3312
01:13
There's this feeling that international instability is the new normal.
17
73847
4549
01:18
But I want you to take a closer look,
18
78396
2131
01:20
and I think you'll see that the geography of violence is changing,
19
80527
3212
01:23
because it's not so much our nation states that are gripped by conflict and crime
20
83739
3808
01:27
as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas, Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
21
87547
7524
01:35
Violence is migrating to the metropole.
22
95071
3125
01:38
And maybe this is to be expected, right?
23
98196
2725
01:40
After all, most people today, they live in cities, not the countryside.
24
100921
3947
01:44
Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities, account for two thirds of global GDP.
25
104868
5836
01:50
But when it comes to cities,
26
110704
1759
01:52
the conversation is dominated by the North,
27
112463
2659
01:55
that is, North America, Western Europe, Australia and Japan,
28
115122
3399
01:58
where violence is actually at historic lows.
29
118521
3147
02:01
As a result, city enthusiasts, they talk about the triumph of the city,
30
121668
4701
02:06
of the creative classes, and the mayors that will rule the world.
31
126369
3146
02:10
Now, I hope that mayors do one day rule the world,
32
130315
3486
02:13
but, you know, the fact is,
33
133801
2037
02:15
we don't hear any conversation, really, about what is happening in the South.
34
135838
4369
02:20
And by South, I mean Latin America, Africa, Asia,
35
140207
4377
02:24
where violence in some cases is accelerating,
36
144584
2728
02:27
where infrastructure is overstretched,
37
147312
2601
02:29
and where governance is sometimes an aspiration and not a reality.
38
149913
4355
02:34
Now, some diplomats and development experts and specialists,
39
154268
4323
02:38
they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states
40
158591
2665
02:41
that will shape security in the 21st century.
41
161256
3622
02:44
I think it's fragile cities which will define the future of order and disorder.
42
164878
5185
02:50
That's because warfare and humanitarian action
43
170063
3351
02:53
are going to be concentrated in our cities,
44
173414
2214
02:55
and the fight for development,
45
175628
1573
02:57
whether you define that as eradicating poverty,
46
177201
2691
02:59
universal healthcare, beating back climate change,
47
179892
2433
03:02
will be won or lost in the shantytowns, slums and favelas of our cities.
48
182325
5671
03:07
I want to talk to you about four megarisks
49
187996
2556
03:10
that I think will define fragility in our time,
50
190552
3249
03:13
and if we can get to grips with these,
51
193801
2229
03:16
I think we can do something with that lethal violence problem.
52
196030
2945
03:18
So let me start with some good news.
53
198975
2372
03:21
Fact is, we're living in the most peaceful moment in human history.
54
201347
5431
03:26
Steven Pinker and others have shown how the intensity and frequency of conflict
55
206778
4181
03:30
is actually at an all-time low.
56
210959
2740
03:33
Now, Gaza, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine,
57
213699
3646
03:37
as ghastly as these conflicts are, and they are horrific,
58
217345
3831
03:41
they represent a relatively small blip upwards
59
221176
2740
03:43
in a 50-year-long secular decline.
60
223916
2995
03:46
What's more, we're seeing a dramatic reduction in homicide.
61
226911
4307
03:51
Manuel Eisner and others have shown
62
231218
2217
03:53
that for centuries, we've seen this incredible drop in murder,
63
233435
3710
03:57
especially in the West.
64
237145
1945
03:59
Most Northern cities today are 100 times safer than they were just 100 years ago.
65
239090
5436
04:04
These two facts -- the decline in armed conflict and the decline in murder --
66
244526
3745
04:08
are amongst the most extraordinary,
67
248271
1679
04:09
if unheralded, accomplishments of human history,
68
249950
2577
04:12
and we should be really excited, right?
69
252527
3300
04:15
Well, yeah, we should.
70
255827
1828
04:17
There's just one problem: These two scourges are still with us.
71
257655
4389
04:22
You see, 525,000 people -- men, women, boys and girls --
72
262044
6093
04:28
die violently every single year.
73
268148
3181
04:31
Research I've been doing with Keith Krause and others
74
271329
2600
04:33
has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000 people are dying in war zones violently.
75
273929
5457
04:39
The rest, almost 500,000 people, are dying outside of conflict zones.
76
279386
5014
04:44
In other words, 10 times more people are dying outside of war than inside war.
77
284400
5993
04:50
What's more, violence is moving south,
78
290393
3095
04:53
to Latin America and the Caribbean,
79
293488
2708
04:56
to parts of Central and Southern Africa,
80
296196
2281
04:58
and to bits of the Middle East and Central Asia.
81
298477
2874
05:01
Forty of the 50 most dangerous cities in the world
82
301351
2769
05:04
are right here in Latin America,
83
304120
1538
05:05
13 in Brazil,
84
305658
1870
05:07
and the most dangerous of all, it's San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,
85
307528
5237
05:12
with a staggering homicide rate of 187 murders per 100,000 people.
86
312765
4816
05:17
That's 23 times the global average.
87
317581
3139
05:20
Now, if violence is re-concentrating geographically,
88
320720
2727
05:23
it's also being reconfigured to the world's new topography,
89
323447
2813
05:26
because when it comes to cities, the world ain't flat,
90
326260
2539
05:28
like Thomas Friedman likes to say.
91
328799
2278
05:31
It's spiky.
92
331077
1336
05:32
The dominance of the city as the primary mode of urban living
93
332413
3914
05:36
is one of the most extraordinary demographic reversals in history,
94
336327
4287
05:40
and it all happened so fast.
95
340614
3088
05:43
You all know the figures, right?
96
343702
1525
05:45
There's 7.3 billion people in the world today;
97
345227
2242
05:47
there will be 9.6 billion by 2050.
98
347469
2389
05:49
But consider this one fact:
99
349858
2064
05:51
In the 1800s, one in 30 people lived in cities,
100
351922
3192
05:55
today it's one in two,
101
355114
2520
05:57
and tomorrow virtually everyone is going to be there.
102
357634
3158
06:00
And this expansion in urbanization is going to be neither even nor equitable.
103
360792
4086
06:04
The vast majority, 90 percent,
104
364878
1643
06:06
will be happening in the South, in cities of the South.
105
366521
4212
06:10
So urban geographers and demographers,
106
370737
3127
06:13
they tell us that it's not necessarily the size or even the density of cities
107
373864
4295
06:18
that predicts violence, no.
108
378159
2090
06:20
Tokyo, with 35 million people,
109
380249
2252
06:22
is one of the largest, and some might say safest, urban metropolises in the world.
110
382501
4728
06:27
No, it's the speed of urbanization that matters.
111
387229
3747
06:30
I call this turbo-urbanization, and it's one of the key drivers of fragility.
112
390976
5847
06:36
When you think about the incredible expansion of these cities,
113
396823
4788
06:41
and you think about turbo-urbanization, think about Karachi.
114
401611
3607
06:45
Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947, a hustling, bustling city.
115
405218
5909
06:51
Today, it's 21 million people,
116
411127
3697
06:54
and apart from accounting for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,
117
414824
3945
06:58
it's also one of the most violent cities in South Asia.
118
418769
3094
07:01
Dhaka, Lagos, Kinshasa,
119
421863
2804
07:04
these cities are now 40 times larger than they were in the 1950s.
120
424667
4045
07:09
Now take a look at New York.
121
429542
1898
07:11
The Big Apple, it took 150 years to get to eight million people.
122
431440
5196
07:16
São Paulo, Mexico City, took 15 to reach that same interval.
123
436636
4441
07:21
Now, what do these medium, large, mega-, and hypercities look like?
124
441947
3893
07:25
What is their profile?
125
445840
1539
07:27
Well, for one thing, they're young.
126
447379
1835
07:29
What we're seeing in many of them is the rise of the youth bulge.
127
449214
3622
07:32
Now, this is actually a good news story.
128
452836
1912
07:34
It's a function of reductions in child mortality rates.
129
454748
2590
07:37
But the youth bulge is something we've got to watch.
130
457338
2457
07:39
What it basically means
131
459795
1431
07:41
is the proportion of young people living in our fragile cities
132
461226
2899
07:44
is much larger than those living in our healthier and wealthier ones.
133
464125
3502
07:47
In some fragile cities,
134
467627
1519
07:49
75 percent of the population is under the age of 30.
135
469146
3581
07:52
Think about that: Three in four people are under 30.
136
472727
4752
07:57
It's like Palo Alto on steroids.
137
477479
2845
08:00
Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example,
138
480324
2740
08:03
in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old.
139
483064
4110
08:07
Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul.
140
487174
2902
08:10
And Tokyo? It's 46.
141
490076
2752
08:12
Same for most Western European cities.
142
492828
3401
08:16
Now, it's not just youth that necessarily predicts violence.
143
496229
3180
08:19
That's one factor among many,
144
499409
2044
08:21
but youthfulness combined with unemployment, lack of education,
145
501453
2976
08:24
and -- this is the kicker -- being male, is a deadly proposition.
146
504429
4106
08:28
They're statistically correlated, all those risk factors, with youth,
147
508535
3501
08:32
and they tend to relate to increases in violence.
148
512036
3127
08:36
Now, for those of you who are parents of teenage sons,
149
516033
3325
08:39
you know what I'm talking about, right?
150
519358
1946
08:41
Just imagine your boy without any structure
151
521304
2910
08:44
with those unruly friends of his, out there cavorting about.
152
524214
3701
08:47
Now, take away the parents,
153
527915
2191
08:50
take away the education, limit the education possibilities,
154
530106
4370
08:54
sprinkle in a little bit of drugs, alcohol and guns,
155
534476
3245
08:57
and sit back and watch the fireworks.
156
537721
3203
09:00
The implications are disconcerting.
157
540924
2097
09:03
Right here in Brazil, the life expectancy is 73.6 years.
158
543021
3515
09:06
If you live in Rio, I'm sorry, shave off two right there.
159
546536
3675
09:10
But if you're young, you're uneducated,
160
550211
2287
09:12
you lack employment, you're black, and you're male,
161
552498
2514
09:15
your life expectancy drops to less than 60 years old.
162
555012
3212
09:18
There's a reason why youthfulness and violence are the number one killers
163
558224
4857
09:23
in this country.
164
563081
2341
09:25
Okay, so it's not all doom and gloom in our cities.
165
565422
3274
09:28
After all, cities are hubs of innovation,
166
568696
2368
09:31
dynamism, prosperity, excitement, connectivity.
167
571064
3589
09:34
They're where the smart people gather.
168
574653
2252
09:36
And those young people I just mentioned,
169
576905
1941
09:38
they're more digitally savvy and tech-aware than ever before.
170
578846
3644
09:42
And this explosion, the Internet, and mobile technology,
171
582490
3574
09:46
means that the digital divide separating the North and the South
172
586064
3715
09:49
between countries and within them, is shrinking.
173
589779
3244
09:53
But as we've heard so many times,
174
593029
1615
09:54
these new technologies are dual-edged, right?
175
594644
2732
09:57
Take the case of law enforcement.
176
597376
2143
09:59
Police around the world are starting to use remote sensing and big data
177
599519
3587
10:03
to anticipate crime.
178
603106
1595
10:04
Some cops are able to predict criminal violence before it even happens.
179
604701
4420
10:09
The future crime scenario, it's here today,
180
609121
3405
10:12
and we've got to be careful.
181
612526
1500
10:14
We have to manage the issues of the public safety
182
614026
2295
10:16
against rights to individual privacy.
183
616321
2666
10:18
But it's not just the cops who are innovating.
184
618987
2151
10:21
We've heard extraordinary activities of civil society groups
185
621138
2844
10:23
who are engaging in local and global collective action,
186
623982
3135
10:27
and this is leading to digital protest and real revolution.
187
627117
3833
10:31
But most worrying of all are criminal gangs
188
631740
3396
10:35
who are going online and starting to colonize cyberspace.
189
635136
2909
10:38
In Ciudad Juárez in Mexico, where I've been working,
190
638045
3132
10:41
groups like the Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel
191
641177
2354
10:43
are hijacking social media.
192
643531
1621
10:45
They're using it to recruit, to sell their products,
193
645152
2584
10:47
to coerce, to intimidate and to kill.
194
647736
2230
10:49
Violence is going virtual.
195
649966
3183
10:53
So this is just a partial sketch
196
653149
2133
10:55
of a fast-moving and dynamic and complex situation.
197
655282
2676
10:57
I mean, there are many other megarisks
198
657958
1849
10:59
that are going to define fragility in our time,
199
659807
2435
11:02
not least income inequality,
200
662242
1899
11:04
poverty, climate change, impunity.
201
664141
3738
11:07
But we're facing a stark dilemma
202
667879
2345
11:10
where some cities are going to thrive and drive global growth
203
670224
4059
11:14
and others are going to stumble and pull it backwards.
204
674283
2936
11:17
If we're going to change course, we need to start a conversation.
205
677219
3226
11:20
We can't only focus on those cities that work,
206
680445
2991
11:23
the Singapores, the Kuala Lumpurs,
207
683436
2508
11:25
the Dubais, the Shanghais.
208
685944
1880
11:27
We've got to bring those fragile cities into the conversation.
209
687824
4204
11:32
One way to do this might be to start twinning
210
692028
2530
11:34
our fragile cities with our healthier and wealthier ones,
211
694558
2740
11:37
kickstarting a process of learning and collaboration
212
697298
2513
11:39
and sharing of practices, of what works and what doesn't.
213
699811
4239
11:44
A wonderful example of this is coming from El Salvador and Los Angeles,
214
704050
3592
11:47
where the mayors in San Salvador and Los Angeles are collaborating
215
707642
4160
11:51
on getting ex-gang members to work with current gang members,
216
711802
3953
11:55
offering tutoring, education,
217
715755
2788
11:58
and in the process are helping incubate cease-fires and truces,
218
718543
3320
12:01
and we've seen homicide rates go down in San Salvador,
219
721863
2547
12:04
once the world's most violent city,
220
724410
1823
12:06
by 50 percent.
221
726233
1644
12:07
We can also focus on hot cities, but also hot spots.
222
727877
2549
12:10
Place and location matter fundamentally in shaping violence in our cities.
223
730426
4302
12:14
Did you know that between one and two percent
224
734728
2555
12:17
of street addresses in any fragile city
225
737283
2065
12:19
can predict up to 99 percent of violent crime?
226
739348
3702
12:23
Take the case of São Paulo, where I've been working.
227
743050
2564
12:25
It's gone from being Brazil's most dangerous city to one of its safest,
228
745614
3753
12:29
and it did this by doubling down
229
749367
1959
12:31
on information collection, hot spot mapping, and police reform,
230
751326
3231
12:34
and in the process, it dropped homicide by 70 percent in just over 10 years.
231
754557
5038
12:39
We also got to focus on those hot people.
232
759595
2455
12:42
It's tragic, but being young, unemployed, uneducated, male,
233
762050
4089
12:46
increases the risks of being killed and killing.
234
766139
3997
12:50
We have to break this cycle of violence
235
770136
2685
12:52
and get in there early with our children, our youngest children,
236
772821
3334
12:56
and valorize them, not stigmatize them.
237
776155
2609
12:59
There's wonderful work that's happening that I've been involved with
238
779214
3370
13:02
in Kingston, Jamaica and right here in Rio,
239
782584
2291
13:04
which is putting education, employment, recreation
240
784875
3298
13:08
up front for these high-risk groups,
241
788173
2156
13:10
and as a result, we're seeing violence going down in their communities.
242
790329
3355
13:13
We've also got to make our cities safer, more inclusive, and livable for all.
243
793684
3678
13:17
The fact is, social cohesion matters.
244
797362
3767
13:21
Mobility matters in our cities.
245
801129
2480
13:23
We've got to get away from this model of segregation, exclusion,
246
803609
3070
13:26
and cities with walls.
247
806679
1416
13:28
My favorite example of how to do this comes from Medellín.
248
808095
2810
13:30
When I lived in Colombia in the late 1990s,
249
810905
2005
13:32
Medellín was the murder capital of the world, but it changed course,
250
812910
3631
13:36
and it did this by deliberately investing in its low-income and most violent areas
251
816541
4259
13:40
and integrating them with the middle-class ones
252
820800
2408
13:43
through a network of cable cars,
253
823208
1672
13:44
of public transport, and first-class infrastructure,
254
824880
2647
13:47
and in the process, it dropped homicide by 79 percent in just under two decades.
255
827527
4822
13:52
And finally, there's technology.
256
832349
2040
13:55
Technology has enormous promise but also peril.
257
835119
2782
13:57
We've seen examples here of extraordinary innovation,
258
837901
2548
14:00
and much of it coming from this room,
259
840449
1793
14:02
The police are engaging in predictive analytics.
260
842242
2368
14:04
Citizens are engaging in new crowdsourcing solutions.
261
844610
2590
14:07
Even my own group is involved in developing applications
262
847200
2647
14:09
to provide more accountability over police and increase safety among citizens.
263
849847
4352
14:14
But we need to be careful.
264
854199
2408
14:17
If I have one single message for you, it's this:
265
857687
3389
14:21
There is nothing inevitable about lethal violence,
266
861076
3485
14:24
and we can make our cities safer.
267
864561
4751
14:29
Folks, we have the opportunity of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence
268
869312
6046
14:35
in half within our lifetime.
269
875358
2647
14:38
So I have just one question:
270
878005
1733
14:39
What are we waiting for?
271
879738
1545
14:41
Thank you.
272
881283
1784
14:43
(Applause)
273
883067
4253
About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

https://forms.gle/WvT1wiN1qDtmnspy7