Robert Muggah: How to protect fast-growing cities from failing

翻译人员: 杏儀 歐陽 校对人员: Jian Zhipeng

We can cut violent deaths around the world

我们可以在未来三十年内

by 50 percent in the next three decades.

将全球暴力性死亡率减半。

All we have to do is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,

我们只需将谋杀犯罪率 每年降低2.3%，

and we'll hit that target.

并且我们可以做到。

You don't believe me?

你不信我？

Well, the leading epidemiologists and criminologists around the world

世界各地顶尖的流行病学家和犯罪学家

seem to think we can, and so do I,

似乎认为我们做得到，我也认为做得到，

but only if we focus on our cities, especially the most fragile ones.

但前提是我们关注城市， 特别是最为脆弱的城市。

You see, I've been thinking about this a lot.

这是我一直关注的问题。

For the last 20 years, I've been working

二十年来，我工作所处的国家和城市

in countries and cities ripped apart by conflict,

都充斥着冲突、暴力、

violence, terrorism, or some insidious combination of all.

恐怖主义，或者样样皆由。

I've tracked gun smugglers from Russia to Somalia,

我曾经跟踪枪械走私分子 从俄罗斯跟踪到索马里，

I've worked with warlords in Afghanistan and the Congo,

我曾经与阿富汗和刚果的军阀合作，

I've counted cadavers in Colombia, in Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.

我曾在哥伦比亚、海地、斯里兰卡、 巴布亚新几内亚，清点尸体数量。

You don't need to be on the front line, though,

话虽如此，你不需要身处战争前线，

to get a sense that our planet is spinning out of control, right?

才感觉到我们的星球正失去控制，是吧？

There's this feeling that international instability is the new normal.

大家明显都感觉到， 国际动荡是新常态。

But I want you to take a closer look,

但我希望大家深入观察，

and I think you'll see that the geography of violence is changing,

就会看到暴力的地理面貌正在改变，

because it's not so much our nation states that are gripped by conflict and crime

因为被冲突和犯罪操控的， 不是我们的国家，

as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas, Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.

而是城市：阿勒颇、巴马科、加拉加斯、 埃尔比勒、摩苏尔、的黎波里、萨尔瓦多。

Violence is migrating to the metropole.

暴力正向大都市迁移。

And maybe this is to be expected, right?

也许这是预料之中的事，对吧？

After all, most people today, they live in cities, not the countryside.

毕竟目前大部分人居住在城市， 而不是农村。

Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities, account for two thirds of global GDP.

600个城市，包括30个大城市， 就占了全球GDP的三分之二。

But when it comes to cities,

但说到城市，

the conversation is dominated by the North,

话题大都由北部地区主导，

that is, North America, Western Europe, Australia and Japan,

所谓北部地区， 是指北美、西欧、澳洲和日本，

where violence is actually at historic lows.

这些地区的暴力率 处于历史新低点。

As a result, city enthusiasts, they talk about the triumph of the city,

因此，城市的热衷者聊的是 城市的胜利、

of the creative classes, and the mayors that will rule the world.

创新阶级的胜利、 说市长们会统治世界。

Now, I hope that mayors do one day rule the world,

我希望某天市长真会统治世界，

but, you know, the fact is,

但是，事实是，

we don't hear any conversation, really, about what is happening in the South.

我们没有真正地听到 南部地区的声音和形势。

And by South, I mean Latin America, Africa, Asia,

所谓南部地区，我是指 拉丁美洲、非洲、亚洲

where violence in some cases is accelerating,

在这些地方，暴力不断加剧，

where infrastructure is overstretched,

基础设施捉襟见肘，

and where governance is sometimes an aspiration and not a reality.

有时政府管理不过是理想， 难成现实。

Now, some diplomats and development experts and specialists,

目前，一些外交官、 发展专家、专业人士在关注

they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states

会决定21世纪安全的 四五十个脆弱城市。

that will shape security in the 21st century.

会决定21世纪安全的 四五十个脆弱城市。

I think it's fragile cities which will define the future of order and disorder.

我认为，这些脆弱城市 会直接决定未来的秩序和稳定。

That's because warfare and humanitarian action

因为战争和人道主义行动

are going to be concentrated in our cities,

将会集中发生在我们的城市，

and the fight for development,

为发展而起的斗争，

whether you define that as eradicating poverty,

无论是消灭贫穷、

universal healthcare, beating back climate change,

普及医疗保健、还是击退气候变化，

will be won or lost in the shantytowns, slums and favelas of our cities.

成败关键都在于城市中的 破屋、残楼、贫民窟。

I want to talk to you about four megarisks

我想向大家介绍

that I think will define fragility in our time,

定义现时代脆弱性的四大危机，

and if we can get to grips with these,

倘若我们能够处理这些危机，

I think we can do something with that lethal violence problem.

我们就可以解决致命暴力问题。

So let me start with some good news.

那么我们先由积极的谈起。

Fact is, we're living in the most peaceful moment in human history.

事实是，我们现今生活在 人类历史上最和平的年代。

Steven Pinker and others have shown how the intensity and frequency of conflict

司提芬•朋克和其他人表明 现今冲突的强度和频率

is actually at an all-time low.

是处于一个怎样的历史低点。

Now, Gaza, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine,

目前，加沙、叙利亚、苏丹、乌克兰

as ghastly as these conflicts are, and they are horrific,

这些国家的冲突可怕恐怖，

they represent a relatively small blip upwards

在暴力持续下降50年之后，

in a 50-year-long secular decline.

这只是一个相对较小的往上攀升的点。

What's more, we're seeing a dramatic reduction in homicide.

此外，我们注意到凶杀案大大减少。

Manuel Eisner and others have shown

曼纽尔•艾斯纳和其他人发现

that for centuries, we've seen this incredible drop in murder,

凶杀案下降到令人难以置信的 数百年来的低点，

especially in the West.

特别是在西方地区。

Most Northern cities today are 100 times safer than they were just 100 years ago.

现今大部分的北部城市 比一百年前安全一百倍。

These two facts -- the decline in armed conflict and the decline in murder --

武装冲突减少了， 谋杀犯罪减少了，

are amongst the most extraordinary,

这是最为了不起的事实，

if unheralded, accomplishments of human history,

若是旷古未有，亦是人类历史的成就，

and we should be really excited, right?

我们应该为此感到兴奋，对吧？

Well, yeah, we should.

没错，我们应该。

There's just one problem: These two scourges are still with us.

只是有一个问题： 这两个祸害还是跟着我们。

You see, 525,000 people -- men, women, boys and girls --

大家看，每年有52.5万人，

die violently every single year.

无论男女老少，死于暴力。

Research I've been doing with Keith Krause and others

我、基思•克劳斯和其他人 在做的一个研究表明

has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000 people are dying in war zones violently.

5到6万人死于战区暴力。

The rest, almost 500,000 people, are dying outside of conflict zones.

其余大约50万人死于冲突区域之外。

In other words, 10 times more people are dying outside of war than inside war.

换而言之，非战争暴力致死的人数 是战争致死的十倍。

What's more, violence is moving south,

此外，暴力正往南部地区迁移，

to Latin America and the Caribbean,

移往拉丁美洲、加勒比海地区，

to parts of Central and Southern Africa,

移往部分中非和南非地区，

and to bits of the Middle East and Central Asia.

移往部分中东和中亚地区。

Forty of the 50 most dangerous cities in the world

世界上50个最危险的城市当中

are right here in Latin America,

有40个就在拉丁美洲，

13 in Brazil,

13个在巴西，

and the most dangerous of all, it's San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,

当中最最危险的， 是圣佩德罗苏拉，洪都拉斯第二大城市，

with a staggering homicide rate of 187 murders per 100,000 people.

每10万人中就有187人被谋杀， 凶杀率实为惊人，

That's 23 times the global average.

是世界平均值的23倍。

Now, if violence is re-concentrating geographically,

如果暴力正在重新定位，

it's also being reconfigured to the world's new topography,

它亦正按世界新地形重新定形，

because when it comes to cities, the world ain't flat,

因为对于城市来说， 地球不是平的，

like Thomas Friedman likes to say.

像托马斯•弗里德曼常说，

It's spiky.

世界尖锐棘手的很。

The dominance of the city as the primary mode of urban living

城市主导城市生活主要方式

is one of the most extraordinary demographic reversals in history,

是历史上最不寻常的人口结构逆转之一，

and it all happened so fast.

而发生得惊人之快。

You all know the figures, right?

大家都知道这些数字，对吧？

There's 7.3 billion people in the world today;

现今世界人口73亿人；

there will be 9.6 billion by 2050.

2050年将会有96亿人。

But consider this one fact:

但大家想想这一个现实：

In the 1800s, one in 30 people lived in cities,

在18世纪，每三十个人中 就有一个人住在城市，

today it's one in two,

今天是每两个人有一个人住城市，

and tomorrow virtually everyone is going to be there.

将来基本每个人都住在城市。

And this expansion in urbanization is going to be neither even nor equitable.

城市化的扩张 既不会平坦，也不会公平。

The vast majority, 90 percent,

90%的城市变迁扩张

will be happening in the South, in cities of the South.

会发生在南部地区， 在南部的城市。

So urban geographers and demographers,

城市地理学家 和人口学家告诉我们

they tell us that it's not necessarily the size or even the density of cities

一个城市的大小或密度

that predicts violence, no.

不一定会造成暴力。

Tokyo, with 35 million people,

东京有3千5百万人口，

is one of the largest, and some might say safest, urban metropolises in the world.

是世界上最大的大都市之一， 也被认为是最安全的大都市之一。

No, it's the speed of urbanization that matters.

与暴力相关的不是大小或密度， 而是城市化的速度。

I call this turbo-urbanization, and it's one of the key drivers of fragility.

我称之为涡轮城市化， 脆弱性的关键驱动因素之一。

When you think about the incredible expansion of these cities,

你想到这些城市的惊人扩张，

and you think about turbo-urbanization, think about Karachi.

你再想想涡轮城市化， 再想想卡拉奇。

Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947, a hustling, bustling city.

卡拉奇在1947年有约50万人， 是一个繁忙的城市。

Today, it's 21 million people,

今日，卡拉奇有2千1百万人，

and apart from accounting for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,

占有巴基斯坦GDP的三分之四，

it's also one of the most violent cities in South Asia.

亦是南亚最暴力的城市之一。

Dhaka, Lagos, Kinshasa,

达卡、拉各斯、金沙萨

these cities are now 40 times larger than they were in the 1950s.

现在这些城市 比19世纪50年代时庞大40倍。

Now take a look at New York.

我们在看看纽约。

The Big Apple, it took 150 years to get to eight million people.

纽约用了150年来收居八百万人。

São Paulo, Mexico City, took 15 to reach that same interval.

墨西哥城的圣保罗 用来15年时间就做到了。

Now, what do these medium, large, mega-, and hypercities look like?

这些超大中小城市是怎样的城市？

What is their profile?

这些城市的相貌如何？

Well, for one thing, they're young.

首先，这些城市都很年轻。

What we're seeing in many of them is the rise of the youth bulge.

许多城市都出现年轻人口膨胀。

Now, this is actually a good news story.

这算是好消息。

It's a function of reductions in child mortality rates.

因为这意味着幼儿死亡率下降了。

But the youth bulge is something we've got to watch.

但是年轻人口膨胀，我们得小心看待。

What it basically means

简单来说，

is the proportion of young people living in our fragile cities

生活在脆弱城市中的年轻人比例

is much larger than those living in our healthier and wealthier ones.

比其他更健康富裕的城市的比例要高得多。

In some fragile cities,

在一些脆弱城市，

75 percent of the population is under the age of 30.

75%人口年龄在30岁以下，

Think about that: Three in four people are under 30.

想想：每四个人中就有三个在30岁以下。

It's like Palo Alto on steroids.

就像让帕罗奥图服用类固醇。

Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example,

看看索马里的首都摩加迪沙。

in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old.

在摩加迪沙，平均年龄是16岁。

Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul.

类似的有孟加拉的达卡、 东帝汶的帝力、阿富汗的喀布尔。

And Tokyo? It's 46.

东京呢？平均年龄46岁。

Same for most Western European cities.

大部分西欧城市亦一样。

Now, it's not just youth that necessarily predicts violence.

不是年轻人就可以带来暴力。

That's one factor among many,

那只是多个因素中的其中之一，

but youthfulness combined with unemployment, lack of education,

但如果青年，再加上失业、缺乏学历，

and -- this is the kicker -- being male, is a deadly proposition.

如果还是男性青年，那就是不得了了。

They're statistically correlated, all those risk factors, with youth,

这些因素都在统计学上的相关因素

and they tend to relate to increases in violence.

所有风险因素发生在青年身上， 会使暴力发生率上升。

Now, for those of you who are parents of teenage sons,

在座如果有儿子出于青年阶段，

you know what I'm talking about, right?

就会懂我的意思。

Just imagine your boy without any structure

想象一下您的儿子， 什么都没有，

with those unruly friends of his, out there cavorting about.

经常跟不守规矩的朋友在一起， 四处闯闹。

Now, take away the parents,

现在，想象他们没有父母的教导，

take away the education, limit the education possibilities,

没有教育背景， 教育机会受到限制，

sprinkle in a little bit of drugs, alcohol and guns,

在添点毒品、酒精、枪械，

and sit back and watch the fireworks.

想想他们会变成怎样。

The implications are disconcerting.

后果可能是不堪设想的。

Right here in Brazil, the life expectancy is 73.6 years.

在巴西， 人均寿命是73.6岁。

If you live in Rio, I'm sorry, shave off two right there.

如果你住里约热内卢， 抱歉，活少两岁。

But if you're young, you're uneducated,

但要是你年轻、没受过教育、

you lack employment, you're black, and you're male,

没有工作、是黑人、还是男性黑人，

your life expectancy drops to less than 60 years old.

你的年均寿命只能直降到60岁以下。

There's a reason why youthfulness and violence are the number one killers

年轻和暴力是这个国家的头号杀手，

in this country.

这是有原因的。

Okay, so it's not all doom and gloom in our cities.

城市不是那么不可救药。

After all, cities are hubs of innovation,

毕竟城市是创新的温床，

dynamism, prosperity, excitement, connectivity.

充满活力、前景、刺激、人际关系。

They're where the smart people gather.

城市里都聚满了聪明人。

And those young people I just mentioned,

而我刚刚所说的年轻人，

they're more digitally savvy and tech-aware than ever before.

他们认识的数码技术和技术比谁都多。

And this explosion, the Internet, and mobile technology,

知识爆炸、因特网、移动通信技术

means that the digital divide separating the North and the South

使南北部地区国家之间的 数码技术差异逐步缩小，

between countries and within them, is shrinking.

也使南北部地区国家内的 数码技术差异逐步缩小。

But as we've heard so many times,

但这些新技术是双刃剑，

these new technologies are dual-edged, right?

这我们都耳熟能详。

Take the case of law enforcement.

拿法律实施来举例。

Police around the world are starting to use remote sensing and big data

全球的警察开始使用 遥感技术和海量数据

to anticipate crime.

来预测犯罪。

Some cops are able to predict criminal violence before it even happens.

一些警察能够在犯罪发生前 就预测到罪犯的暴力行为。

The future crime scenario, it's here today,

将来犯罪的场景， 就在今天，

and we've got to be careful.

我们需要小心提防。

We have to manage the issues of the public safety

我们必须协调好公共安全问题

against rights to individual privacy.

防止个人隐私权利受到侵害。

But it's not just the cops who are innovating.

在创新的，不只是警察。

We've heard extraordinary activities of civil society groups

我们听过坊间社会团体的 举办不少出众的活动，

who are engaging in local and global collective action,

他们从事本地和全球的集体活动，

and this is leading to digital protest and real revolution.

可以引起数字化抗议和真实革命。

But most worrying of all are criminal gangs

但最令人担忧的是

who are going online and starting to colonize cyberspace.

犯罪团体利用网络 开始侵略网络空间。

In Ciudad Juárez in Mexico, where I've been working,

我在墨西哥的华雷斯城工作，

groups like the Zetas and the Sinaloa cartel

那里的塞塔斯暴力犯罪集团 和锡纳罗亚贩毒集团等集团，

are hijacking social media.

一直劫持社交媒体。

They're using it to recruit, to sell their products,

他们利用社交媒体来招兵买马， 贩卖他们的产品，

to coerce, to intimidate and to kill.

胁迫、恐吓和杀害他人。

Violence is going virtual.

暴力在走向虚拟世界。

So this is just a partial sketch

现今形势多变复杂

of a fast-moving and dynamic and complex situation.

这不过是其中一面。

I mean, there are many other megarisks

超级风险还有许多，

that are going to define fragility in our time,

并且会直接影响我们时代的脆弱性，

not least income inequality,

也会影响当今的收入不均、

poverty, climate change, impunity.

贫穷、气候变化、 罪犯逍遥法外等问题。

But we're facing a stark dilemma

但我们面临着一个严峻的窘境：

where some cities are going to thrive and drive global growth

有些城市会繁荣发展 促进全球的进步，

and others are going to stumble and pull it backwards.

但也有城市会跌跌绊绊 拉大家的后腿。

If we're going to change course, we need to start a conversation.

如果要改变这种现象， 我们需要开展新对话。

We can't only focus on those cities that work,

我们不能只关注那些发展好的城市，

the Singapores, the Kuala Lumpurs,

像新加坡、吉隆坡、

the Dubais, the Shanghais.

杜拜、上海；

We've got to bring those fragile cities into the conversation.

我们要与脆弱城市对话。

One way to do this might be to start twinning

方法之一可以是

our fragile cities with our healthier and wealthier ones,

将我们较健康富有的城市 与较脆弱的城市结对，

kickstarting a process of learning and collaboration

开展相互学习合作的过程，

and sharing of practices, of what works and what doesn't.

分享经验，分享成功与失败。

A wonderful example of this is coming from El Salvador and Los Angeles,

一个很好的例子是 萨尔瓦多和洛杉矶。

where the mayors in San Salvador and Los Angeles are collaborating

圣萨尔瓦多市长和洛杉矶市长携手合作

on getting ex-gang members to work with current gang members,

组织前犯罪团体成员 与目前的犯罪团体成员一起，

offering tutoring, education,

开放教育班、提供教育、

and in the process are helping incubate cease-fires and truces,

并且不断劝谕停火停战，

and we've seen homicide rates go down in San Salvador,

圣萨尔瓦多的凶杀率显著下降了，

once the world's most violent city,

过去世界上最暴力的城市，

by 50 percent.

凶杀率下降五成。

We can also focus on hot cities, but also hot spots.

我们也可以关注热门城市、热门地点。

Place and location matter fundamentally in shaping violence in our cities.

地点对城市暴力形成有着根本影响。

Did you know that between one and two percent

在座是否知道

of street addresses in any fragile city

脆弱城市中1-2%的街道

can predict up to 99 percent of violent crime?

可以预测该城市99%的暴力犯罪。

Take the case of São Paulo, where I've been working.

拿我生活的圣保罗为例。

It's gone from being Brazil's most dangerous city to one of its safest,

过去这是巴西最危险的城市， 现在确实最安全的城市，

and it did this by doubling down

方法是将加大力量，

on information collection, hot spot mapping, and police reform,

双倍增加信息收集、 热点绘图、警方改革，

and in the process, it dropped homicide by 70 percent in just over 10 years.

在十年内凶杀率因此下降70%。

We also got to focus on those hot people.

我们也需要关注热点人物。

It's tragic, but being young, unemployed, uneducated, male,

年轻、失业、无教育、男性

increases the risks of being killed and killing.

虽然不幸， 但却可增加凶杀机率。

We have to break this cycle of violence

我们必须打破这条暴力链，

and get in there early with our children, our youngest children,

早期与儿童和青年相处，

and valorize them, not stigmatize them.

稳定他们，而不是侮辱他们。

There's wonderful work that's happening that I've been involved with

最近我在致力的一项工作

in Kingston, Jamaica and right here in Rio,

在牙买加的金斯敦、 在里约热内卢，

which is putting education, employment, recreation

将教育、就业、娱乐

up front for these high-risk groups,

带给这些高风险人群，

and as a result, we're seeing violence going down in their communities.

因此这些社区的暴力下降了。

We've also got to make our cities safer, more inclusive, and livable for all.

我们也发现城市变得 更加安全，更加包容，更加宜居。

The fact is, social cohesion matters.

事实是，社会凝聚力相当重要。

Mobility matters in our cities.

流动性对城市相当重要。

We've got to get away from this model of segregation, exclusion,

我们必须要让我们的城市

and cities with walls.

远离种族隔离、排斥他人的模式。

My favorite example of how to do this comes from Medellín.

一个很好的例子是麦德林。

When I lived in Colombia in the late 1990s,

九十年代末我住在哥伦比亚，

Medellín was the murder capital of the world, but it changed course,

麦德林是当时世界经典的凶杀城市， 但是这个城市后来改变了，

and it did this by deliberately investing in its low-income and most violent areas

这是因为刻意投资在低收入高暴力的地区

and integrating them with the middle-class ones

与中产阶级社区相融合，

through a network of cable cars,

通过缆车网络的接驳、

of public transport, and first-class infrastructure,

公共交通的联系、 一流基础设施的投入，

and in the process, it dropped homicide by 79 percent in just under two decades.

该城市在二十年内 凶杀率下降79%。

And finally, there's technology.

最后，还有技术。

Technology has enormous promise but also peril.

技术有巨大的好处， 也有巨大的危害。

We've seen examples here of extraordinary innovation,

我们举了一些创新例子，

and much of it coming from this room,

很多都是出自这个房间。

The police are engaging in predictive analytics.

警察致力于预测分析。

Citizens are engaging in new crowdsourcing solutions.

市民致力于新的公众解决方案。

Even my own group is involved in developing applications

我自己的团队也在开发程序，

to provide more accountability over police and increase safety among citizens.

提供更多可信破案资讯， 为市民带来更多安全。

But we need to be careful.

但是我们需要小心提防。

If I have one single message for you, it's this:

如果我可以向您传达一个信息， 那会是：

There is nothing inevitable about lethal violence,

暴力致死不是不可避免的，

and we can make our cities safer.

我们可以将城市变得更安全。

Folks, we have the opportunity of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence

在座各位，我们现在有机会

in half within our lifetime.

在我们有生之年 将凶杀率减少一半。

So I have just one question:

所以我只有一个问题：

What are we waiting for?

我们还在等什么？

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

（掌声）