Jeff Hancock: 3 types of (digital) lies

Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Mile Živković

Let me tell you, it has been a fantastic month for deception.

Dozvolite da vam ispričam, ovo je bio fantastičan mesec za prevare.

And I'm not even talking about the American presidential race. (Laughter)

A čak ni ne mislim na kampanju za američke predsedničke izbore. (Smeh)

We have a high-profile journalist caught for plagiarism,

Imamo poznatog novinara koji je uhvaćen zbog plagijata,

a young superstar writer whose book involves

mladog pisca, super zvezdu, čija knjiga sadrži

so many made up quotes that they've pulled it from the shelves;

toliko izmišljenih citata da je povučena iz prodaje;

a New York Times exposé on fake book reviews.

ekspoze u Njujork Tajmsu o lažnim recenzijama.

It's been fantastic.

Bilo je fantastično.

Now, of course, not all deception hits the news.

Naravno, ne dospevaju sve prevare u vesti.

Much of the deception is everyday. In fact, a lot of research

Mnogo je svakodnevnih prevara.

Zapravo, veliki broj istraživanja ukazuje

shows that we all lie once or twice a day, as Dave suggested.

da svi mi slažemo jednom ili dva puta dnevno, kako Dejv iznosi.

Sada je oko 6:30, što znači da je većina nas verovatno već slagala.

So it's about 6:30 now, suggests that most of us should have lied.

Let's take a look at Winnipeg. How many of you,

Hajde da pogledamo Vinipeg.

in the last 24 hours -- think back -- have told a little fib,

Koliko vas je u poslednjih 24 sata - prisetite se -

izrekla malu ili veliku neistinu? Koliko vas je izreklo malu laž?

or a big one? How many have told a little lie out there?

All right, good. These are all the liars.

U redu. Svi ovi su lažovi. Obratite pažnju na njih. (Smeh)

Make sure you pay attention to them. (Laughter)

No, that looked good, it was about two thirds of you.

Ne, to je izgledalo u redu, skoro dve trećine vas.

The other third didn't lie, or perhaps forgot,

Preostala trećina nije lagala, ili je možda zaboravila da jeste,

or you're lying to me about your lying, which is very,

ili lažete mene o svom laganju,

što je vrlo, vrlo nepošteno. (Smeh)

very devious. (Laughter) This fits with a lot of the research,

To se poklapa sa mnogim istraživanjima

which suggests that lying is very pervasive.

koja ukazuju da je laganje široko rasprostranjeno.

It's this pervasiveness, combined with the centrality

Ta rasprostranjenost, zajedno sa suštinom onoga

što nas čini ljudskim bićem, činjenica da možemo da kažemo istinu

to what it means to be a human, the fact that we can

tell the truth or make something up,

ili da nešto izmislimo, fascinirala je ljude kroz istoriju.

that has fascinated people throughout history.

Here we have Diogenes with his lantern.

Ovde imamo Diogena sa njegovom lampom.

Does anybody know what he was looking for?

Da li neko zna šta je on tražio? Jednog jedinog poštenog čoveka,

A single honest man, and he died without finding one

i umro je, a nije našao nijednog takvog u Grčkoj u to vreme.

back in Greece. And we have Confucius in the East

Imamo i Konfučija na Dalekom Istoku, koji se bavio iskrenošću,

who was really concerned with sincerity,

not only that you walked the walk or talked the talk,

ne samo da ste bili dosledni u onome što pričate i radite,

but that you believed in what you were doing.

već da ste verovali u to šta ste radili, verovali u svoje principe.

You believed in your principles.

Now my first professional encounter with deception

Moj prvi profesionalni susret sa prevarom

is a little bit later than these guys, a couple thousand years.

je bio nešto kasnije od ove dvojice, nekoliko hiljada godina kasnije.

I was a customs officer for Canada back in the mid-'90s.

Radio sam kao kanadski carinik sredinom 90-tih godina.

Yeah. I was defending Canada's borders.

Da. Branio sam kanadske granice.

You may think that's a weapon right there. In fact,

Možete pomisliti da je to tu oružje. U stvari, to je pečat.

that's a stamp. I used a stamp to defend Canada's borders. (Laughter)

Branio sam kanadske granice pečatom. (Smeh)

Very Canadian of me. I learned a lot about deception

Pravi Kanađanin.

Puno sam naučio o prevarama dok sam vršio svoju dužnost na carini,

while doing my duty here in customs,

one of which was that most of what I thought I knew about deception was wrong,

a jedno je da je većina onoga što sam mislio da znam o prevarama

and I'll tell you about some of that tonight.

bilo pogrešno, i večeras ću vam reći nešto od toga.

But even since just 1995, '96, the way we communicate

Čak se i način na koji komuniciramo od te 1995., 1996. godine

has been completely transformed. We email, we text,

potpuno promenio.

we skype, we Facebook. It's insane.

Sada koristimo imejl, SMS, Skajp, Fejsbuk. Potpuno ludilo.

Almost every aspect of human communication's been changed,

Gotovo svaki aspekt ljudske komunikacije se promenio,

and of course that's had an impact on deception.

i naravno, to je imalo uticaja na obmane.

Let me tell you a little bit about a couple of new deceptions

Dozvolite da vam ispričam ponešto

we've been tracking and documenting.

o novim vrstama prevara koje smo pratili i zabeležiili.

They're called the Butler, the Sock Puppet

Nazvani su Batler, Marioneta i Kineska mornarica.

and the Chinese Water Army.

It sounds a little bit like a weird book,

Pomalo zvuči kao čudna knjiga,

but actually they're all new types of lies.

ali to su zapravo sve nove vrste laži.

Let's start with the Butlers. Here's an example of one:

Počnimo sa Batlerima. Evo jednog primera:

"On my way." Anybody ever written, "On my way?"

"Na putu sam." Da li je ikad iko napisao: "Na putu sam?"

Then you've also lied. (Laughter)

Onda ste takođe slagali. (Smeh)

We're never on our way. We're thinking about going on our way.

Nikada nismo na putu. Razmišljamo o tome da krenemo.

Here's another one: "Sorry I didn't respond to you earlier.

Evo još jedne: "Izvini što nisam ranije odgovorio. Crkla mi je baterija."

My battery was dead." Your battery wasn't dead.

Baterija vam nije crkla. Niste bili van dometa.

You weren't in a dead zone.

You just didn't want to respond to that person that time.

Samo niste tada hteli da odgovorite toj osobi.

Here's the last one: You're talking to somebody,

Evo poslednje: pričate sa nekim i kažete: "Izvini, imam posla, moram da idem."

and you say, "Sorry, got work, gotta go."

But really, you're just bored. You want to talk to somebody else.

Ali vam je u stvari samo dosadno. Želite da pričate s nekim drugim.

Each of these is about a relationship,

Svaka od ovih laži govori o odnosu koji imate,

and this is a 24/7 connected world. Once you get my cell phone number,

a ovo je svet u kojem smo povezani stalno.

Kada jednom nabavite broj mog mobilnog telefona,

you can literally be in touch with me 24 hours a day.

možete bukvalno da budete u kontaktu sa mnom 24 časa dnevno.

And so these lies are being used by people

Dakle, ove laži ljudi koriste kako bi stvorili tampon zonu,

to create a buffer, like the butler used to do,

kao što je batler nekada bio između nas i svih ostalih.

between us and the connections to everybody else.

But they're very special. They use ambiguity

No one su veoma posebne.

Koriste dvosmislenost koja proističe iz korišćenja tehnologije.

that comes from using technology. You don't know

where I am or what I'm doing or who I'm with.

Ne znaš gde sam, šta radim, sa kim sam.

And they're aimed at protecting the relationships.

I usmerene su na očuvanje veza. Nije stvar u tome da su ljudi kreteni.

These aren't just people being jerks. These are people

Oni govore: "Slušaj, ne želim sada da pričam sa tobom"

that are saying, look, I don't want to talk to you now,

or I didn't want to talk to you then, but I still care about you.

ili "Nisam hteo da pričam sa tobom onda,

ali mi je i dalje stalo do tebe. Naš odnos je i dalje važan".

Our relationship is still important.

Now, the Sock Puppet, on the other hand,

Sa druge strane, Marioneta je potpuno drugačija.

is a totally different animal. The sock puppet isn't

about ambiguity, per se. It's about identity.

Tu se ne radi o dvosmislenosti samoj po sebi.

Radi se o identitetu.

Let me give you a very recent example,

Daću vam jedan svež primer, od prošle nedelje.

as in, like, last week.

Here's R.J. Ellory, best-seller author in Britain.

Evo R. Dž. Elerija, autora bestselera u Velikoj Britaniji.

Here's one of his bestselling books.

Evo jedne od njegovih najprodavanijih knjiga.

Here's a reviewer online, on Amazon.

Evo onlajn kritike, na Amazonu.

My favorite, by Nicodemus Jones, is,

Moja omiljena, od autora Nikodemusa Džounsa, je:

"Whatever else it might do, it will touch your soul."

"Kakav god efekat da ostavi, svakako će vam dotaći dušu".

And of course, you might suspect

I naravno, možete već pretpostaviti,

that Nicodemus Jones is R.J. Ellory.

Nikodemus Džous je R. Dž. Eleri.

He wrote very, very positive reviews about himself. Surprise, surprise.

Napisao je veoma, veoma pozitivne kritike samome sebi. Gle iznenađenja.

Now this Sock Puppet stuff isn't actually that new.

Ova prevara, Marioneta, zapravo nije toliko nova.

Walt Whitman also did this back in the day,

Volt Vitman je takođe ovo radio nekada davno,

before there was Internet technology. Sock Puppet

pre nego što je postojala internet tehnologija.

becomes interesting when we get to scale,

Marioneta postaje zanimljiva kada dođemo do većih razmera,

which is the domain of the Chinese Water Army.

što je domen Kineske mornarice.

Chinese Water Army refers to thousands of people

Odnosi se na hiljade ljudi u Kini koji su slabo plaćeni za kreiranje sadržaja.

in China that are paid small amounts of money

to produce content. It could be reviews. It could be

To mogu biti kritike, to može biti propaganda.

propaganda. The government hires these people,

Vlada zapošljava ove ljude, kompanije ih zapošljavaju, posvuda.

companies hire them, all over the place.

In North America, we call this Astroturfing,

U Severnoj Americi, mi to nazivamo astroturfingom.

and Astroturfing is very common now. There's a lot of concerns about it.

To je sada veoma učestalo i mnogi se brinu oko toga.

We see this especially with product reviews, book reviews,

Ovo vidimo naročito u ocenama proizvoda, književnim kritikama,

everything from hotels to whether that toaster is a good toaster or not.

svuda od hotela do toga da li je neki toster dobar ili nije.

Now, looking at these three reviews, or these three types of deception,

Posmatrajući ove tri kritike ili tri tipa prevare,

you might think, wow, the Internet is really making us

možete pomisliti, internet nas zaista pretvara u obmanjujuću vrstu,

a deceptive species, especially when you think about

naročito kada pomislite na astroturfing,

the Astroturfing, where we can see deception brought up to scale.

kada vidimo obmanu tako velikih razmera.

But actually, what I've been finding is very different from that.

Ali u stvari, ono što sam ja pronalazio je veoma drugačije od toga.

Now, let's put aside the online anonymous sex chatrooms,

Hajde sad da ostavimo po strani onlajn anonimno seks četovanje,

which I'm sure none of you have been in.

za šta sam siguran da niko od vas nije iskusio.

I can assure you there's deception there.

Uveravam vas da tu ima obmana.

And let's put aside the Nigerian prince who's emailed you

I hajde da ostavimo po strani nigerijskog princa

koji vam je poslao imejl da iznesete 43 miliona iz zemlje. (Smeh)

about getting the 43 million out of the country. (Laughter)

Let's forget about that guy, too.

Zaboravimo i na tog tipa.

Let's focus on the conversations between our friends

Fokusirajmo se na svoje razgovore sa prijateljima, porodicom,

and our family and our coworkers and our loved ones.

kolegama na poslu i svojim voljenima.

Those are the conversations that really matter.

To su razgovori koji su zaista bitni.

What does technology do to deception with those folks?

Šta tehnologija radi sa obmanom kod ovih ljudi?

Here's a couple of studies. One of the studies we do

Evo nekoliko istraživanja. Neke od studija koje vršimo

are called diary studies, in which we ask people to record

se zovu studije dnevnika, u kojima tražimo da ljudi snimaju

all of their conversations and all of their lies for seven days,

sve svoje razgovore i sve svoje laži u toku sedam dana,

and what we can do then is calculate how many lies took place

i onda možemo da izračunamo koliko je laži

per conversation within a medium, and the finding

prisutno po razgovoru u okviru jednog medija,

that we get that surprises people the most is that email

i nalaz koji najviše iznenađuje ljude

is the most honest of those three media.

jeste taj da je imejl najiskreniji od ta tri medija.

And it really throws people for a loop because we think,

To zaista šokira ljude jer mislimo,

well, there's no nonverbal cues, so why don't you lie more?

nema neverbalnih znakova, pa zašto se onda ne laže više?

The phone, in contrast, the most lies.

Telefon, nasuprot tome, najviše laži.

Iznova i iznova i iznova vidimo da je telefon

Again and again and again we see the phone is the device

that people lie on the most, and perhaps because of the Butler Lie ambiguities I was telling you about.

naprava preko koje ljudi najviše lažu,

možda zbog dvosmislenosti Batler laži o kojima sam vam govorio.

This tends to be very different from what people expect.

Ovo ume da bude veoma drugačije od onoga što ljudi očekuju.

What about résumés? We did a study in which we had

Šta je sa biografijama? Obavili smo istraživanje

people apply for a job, and they could apply for a job

u kome su se ljudi prijavljivali za posao, i mogli su da se prijave za posao

either with a traditional paper résumé, or on LinkedIn,

bilo sa tradicionalnom biografijom na papiru, ili putem LinkedIn-a,

which is a social networking site like Facebook,

što je sajt društvene mreže poput Fejsbuka

but for professionals -- involves the same information as a résumé.

ali za profesionalce - sadrži iste informacije kao biografija.

And what we found, to many people's surprise,

I otkrili smo, na iznenađenje mnogih,

was that those LinkedIn résumés were more honest

da su LinkedIn biografije bile iskrenije

on the things that mattered to employers, like your

u vezi stvari koje su bile bitne poslodavcima,

responsibilities or your skills at your previous job.

kao što su vaša odgovornost ili vaše veštine ili vaš prethodni posao.

How about Facebook itself?

Šta je sa samim Fejsbukom?

Znate, uvek mislimo, tu su idealizovane verzije,

You know, we always think that hey, there are these

idealized versions, people are just showing the best things

ljudi samo pokazuju najbolje stvari

koje su se desile u njihovim životima. Često sam to mislio.

that happened in their lives. I've thought that many times.

My friends, no way they can be that cool and have good of a life.

Moji prijatelji, nema šanse da mogu da budu tako kul i imaju dobar život.

Well, one study tested this by examining people's personalities.

Pa, jedna studija je ovo testirala ispitivanjem ličnosti ljudi.

They had four good friends of a person judge their personality.

Imali su četiri dobra prijatelja i osobu koja procenjuje njihovu ličnost.

Then they had strangers, many strangers,

Onda su imali strance, mnogo stranaca,

judge the person's personality just from Facebook,

koji procenjuju ličnost osobe samo sa Fejsbuka.

and what they found was those judgments of the personality

Otkrili su da su te procene ličnosti

were pretty much identical, highly correlated,

bile prilično identične, visoko korelirajuće,

meaning that Facebook profiles really do reflect our actual personality.

što znači da Fejsbuk profili zaista odražavaju našu stvarnu ličnost.

All right, well, what about online dating?

Dobro, a šta je sa onlajn zabavljanjem?

Mislim, to je prilično obmanjujuć prostor.

I mean, that's a pretty deceptive space.

I'm sure you all have "friends" that have used online dating. (Laughter)

Siguran sam da svi vi imate "prijatelje"

koji su koristili onlajn zabavljanje. (Smeh)

And they would tell you about that guy that had no hair

Oni bi vam pričali o tipu koji nije imao kose kada je došao,

when he came, or the woman that didn't look at all like her photo.

ili ženi koja uopšte nije izgledala kao na fotografiji.

Well, we were really interested in it, and so what we did

Stvarno smo se zainteresovali za to, i tako smo doveli ljude

is we brought people, online daters, into the lab,

koji koriste onlajn zabavljanje u laboratoriju,

and then we measured them. We got their height

i zatim smo ih izmerili.

up against the wall, we put them on a scale, got their weight --

Dobili smo njihovu visinu naslonivši ih na zid,

stavili ih na vagu, dobili njihovu težinu -

ladies loved that -- and then we actually got their driver's license to get their age.

damama se to baš svidelo - i zatim smo uzeli

njihove vozačke dozvole da bismo saznali njihove godine.

And what we found was very, very interesting.

I ono što smo pronašli je bilo veoma, veoma zanimljivo.

Here's an example of the men and the height.

Evo primera muškaraca i visine.

Donja linija predstavlja koliko su rekli da su visoki na profilu.

Along the bottom is how tall they said they were in their profile.

Along the y-axis, the vertical axis, is how tall they actually were.

Linija y-ose, vertikalne ose, odnosi se na to koliko su stvarno visoki.

That diagonal line is the truth line. If their dot's on it,

Ta dijagonalna linija je linija istine. Ako je njihova tačka na njoj,

they were telling exactly the truth.

govorili su upravo istinu.

Now, as you see, most of the little dots are below the line.

Sad, kao što vidite, većina tačkica je ispod linije.

What it means is all the guys were lying about their height.

To znači da su svi momci lagali o svojoj visini.

In fact, they lied about their height about nine tenths of an inch,

Zapravo, lagali su o svojoj visini za oko 2,3 cm,

what we say in the lab as "strong rounding up." (Laughter)

ono što mi u laboratoriji zovemo "jako zaokruživanje". (Smeh)

Dođete do 177 cm, i bum! 180 cm.

You get to 5'8" and one tenth, and boom! 5'9".

Ali ono što je stvarno važno ovde je, pogledajte sve te tačke.

But what's really important here is, look at all those dots.

They are clustering pretty close to the truth. What we found

Grupišu se prilično blizu istine. Ono što smo otkrili

was 80 percent of our participants did indeed lie

je da je 80 procenata naših učesnika

zaista lagalo na jednoj od tih dimenzija, ali su uvek lagali malčice.

on one of those dimensions, but they always lied by a little bit.

One of the reasons is pretty simple. If you go to a date,

Jedan od razloga je prilično jednostavan. Ako odete na sastanak, kafu,

a coffee date, and you're completely different than what you said,

i potpuno ste drugačiji nego što ste rekli, igra je završena.

game over. Right? So people lied frequently, but they lied

Zar ne? Dakle ljudi su lagali učestalo,

subtly, not too much. They were constrained.

ali su lagali suptilno, ne previše. Obuzdavali su se.

Well, what explains all these studies? What explains the fact

Pa, šta objašnjavaju sva ta istraživanja? Šta objašnjava činjenica

that despite our intuitions, mine included,

da uprkos našim intuicijama, uključujući moju,

a lot of online communication, technologically-mediated

veliki deo onlajn komunikacije, tehnološki posredovane komunikacija,

communication, is more honest than face to face?

je iskrenije nego lice u lice?

That really is strange. How do we explain this?

To je stvarno čudno. Kako ovo objašnjavamo?

Well, to do that, one thing is we can look at the deception-detection literature.

Pa, da bismo to uradili, možemo pogledati literaturu o otkrivanju obmane.

It's a very old literature by now, it's coming up on 50 years.

To je sada veoma stara literatura, ima skoro 50 godina.

It's been reviewed many times. There's been thousands of trials,

Razmatrana je mnogo puta. Izvršene su hiljade provera,

hundreds of studies, and there's some really compelling findings.

stotine istraživanja, i ima nekih zaista ubedljivih nalaza.

The first is, we're really bad at detecting deception,

Prvi je: mi smo stvarno loši u otkrivanju obmana, zaista loši.

really bad. Fifty-four percent accuracy on average when you have to tell

54 procenata tačnosti u proseku kada treba da odredite

if somebody that just said a statement is lying or not.

da li neko ko je upravo izneo tvrdnju laže ili ne.

That's really bad. Why is it so bad?

To je stvarno loše. Zašto je to tako loše?

Well it has to do with Pinocchio's nose.

Pa, ima neke veze sa Pinokiovim nosem.

If I were to ask you guys, what do you rely on

Ako bih vas pitao na šta se oslanjate

when you're looking at somebody and you want to find out

kada gledate nekoga i želite da otkrijete

if they're lying? What cue do you pay attention to?

da li lažu, na koje znake obraćate pažnju,

Most of you would say that one of the cues you look at

većina vas bi rekla da su oči jedan od znakova koje gledate.

is the eyes. The eyes are the window to the soul.

Oči su ogledalo duše.

And you're not alone. Around the world, almost every culture,

I niste jedini. Širom sveta, u skoro svakoj kulturi,

one of the top cues is eyes. But the research

oči su među glavnim znakovima. Ali istraživanja

over the last 50 years says there's actually no reliable cue

tokom poslednjih 50 godina govore

da zapravo nema pouzdanih znakova obmane,

to deception, which blew me away, and it's one of

što me je šokiralo, i to je jedna od teških lekcija

the hard lessons that I learned when I was customs officer.

koju sam naučio dok sam bio carinik.

The eyes do not tell us whether somebody's lying or not.

Oči nam ne govore da li nas neko laže ili ne.

Some situations, yes -- high stakes, maybe their pupils dilate,

U nekim situacijama, da - visokim rizicima,

možda im se zenice rašire, povisi im se ton,

their pitch goes up, their body movements change a little bit,

telesni pokreti se malčice promene,

but not all the time, not for everybody, it's not reliable.

ali ne uvek, ne kod svakoga, nije pouzdano.

Čudno. Druga stvar je da samo zato što ne možete da me vidite,

Strange. The other thing is that just because you can't see me

doesn't mean I'm going to lie. It's common sense,

ne znači da ću lagati. To je zdrav razum,

but one important finding is that we lie for a reason.

ali jedan važan nalaz jeste da lažemo sa razlogom.

We lie to protect ourselves or for our own gain

Lažemo da bismo se zaštitili, zarad sopstvenih ciljeva,

or for somebody else's gain.

ili ciljeva nekog drugog.

So there are some pathological liars, but they make up

Postoje poneki patološki lažovi, ali oni čine mali deo populacije.

a tiny portion of the population. We lie for a reason.

Mi lažemo sa razlogom.

Just because people can't see us doesn't mean

Samo zato što nas ljudi ne vide, ne znači nužno da ćemo lagati.

we're going to necessarily lie.

But I think there's actually something much more

Ali mislim da se zapravo mnogo više toga

interesting and fundamental going on here. The next big

interesantnog i fundamentalnog ovde dešava.

Sledeću veliku stvar za mene, sledeću veliku ideju,

thing for me, the next big idea, we can find by going

možemo pronaći vraćajući se nazad kroz istoriju do korena jezika.

way back in history to the origins of language.

Most linguists agree that we started speaking somewhere

Većina lingvista se slaže da smo počeli da govorimo pre oko negde

between 50,000 and 100,000 years ago. That's a long time ago.

između 50 000 i 100 00 godina. To je pre mnogo vremena.

A lot of humans have lived since then.

Mnogo ljudi je živelo od tada.

We've been talking, I guess, about fires and caves

Pričali smo, pretpostavljam, o vatrama i pećinama

and saber-toothed tigers. I don't know what they talked about,

i sabljozubim tigrovima. Ne znam o čemu su pričali,

but they were doing a lot of talking, and like I said,

ali su dosta pričali, i kao što sam rekao,

there's a lot of humans evolving speaking,

mnogo je ljudi razvilo govor,

about 100 billion people in fact.

oko 100 milijardu ljudi zapravo.

What's important though is that writing only emerged

Ono što je važno je da se pisanje pojavilo tek pre oko 5 000 godina.

about 5,000 years ago. So what that means is that

Dakle to znači da svi ljudi pre nego što je bilo pisanja,

all the people before there was any writing,

every word that they ever said, every utterance

svaka reč koju su ikada rekli, svaki iskaz

disappeared. No trace. Evanescent. Gone.

je nestao. Bez traga. Iščezao. Propao.

So we've been evolving to talk in a way in which

Evoluirali smo da govorimo na način u kome nema zapisa.

there is no record. In fact, even the next big change

Zapravo, čak i naredna velika promena

to writing was only 500 years ago now,

u pisanju je bila tek pre oko 500 godina,

with the printing press, which is very recent in our past,

sa štamparskom presom, što je veoma sveže u našoj prošlosti,

and literacy rates remained incredibly low right up until World War II,

i stope pismenosti su ostale neverovatno niske sve do Drugog svetskog rata,

so even the people of the last two millennia,

tako da čak i ljudi poslednja dva milenijuma,

most of the words they ever said -- poof! -- disappeared.

većina reči koje su ikada izgovorili - puf! - nestale su.

Let's turn to now, the networked age.

Hajde da se vratimo sadašnjosti, umreženom dobu.

How many of you have recorded something today?

Koliko vas je danas nešto zabeležilo?

Anybody do any writing today? Did anybody write a word?

Da li je iko nešto zapisao danas? Da li je bilo ko napisao reč?

It looks like almost every single person here recorded something.

Izgleda da je skoro svaka osoba ovde nešto zabeležila.

In this room, right now, we've probably recorded more

U ovoj sobi, baš sada, mi smo verovatno zabeležili više

than almost all of human pre-ancient history.

nego skoro cela ljudska praistorija.

That is crazy. We're entering this amazing period

To je ludo. Ulazimo u neverovatan period

of flux in human evolution where we've evolved to speak

protoka u ljudskoj evoluciji gde smo se razvili da govorimo

in a way in which our words disappear, but we're in

na način u kome naše reči nestaju,

an environment where we're recording everything.

ali smo u sredini gde sve snimamo.

U stvari, mislim da u veoma bliskoj budućnosti,

In fact, I think in the very near future, it's not just

what we write that will be recorded, everything we do

neće samo ono što zapišemo biti snimljeno,

will be recorded.

sve što činimo biće zabeleženo.

What does that mean? What's the next big idea from that?

Šta to znači? Koje sledeća velika ideja proizilazi iz toga?

Well, as a social scientist, this is the most amazing thing

Pa, kao sociolog, ovo je najneverovatnija stvar

I have ever even dreamed of. Now, I can look at

o kojoj sam ikada maštao.

Sada mogu da pogledam sve te reči koje su milenijumima nestajale.

all those words that used to, for millennia, disappear.

I can look at lies that before were said and then gone.

Mogu da pogledam laži koje su ranije izgovorene i zatim nestale.

Sećate se astroturfing kritika o kojima smo ranije govorili?

You remember those Astroturfing reviews that we were

talking about before? Well, when they write a fake review,

Pa, kada napišu lažnu kritiku,

they have to post it somewhere, and it's left behind for us.

moraju da je negde objave, i ona tu ostaje za nas.

So one thing that we did, and I'll give you an example of

Stvar koju smo uradili, a daću vam primer

looking at the language, is we paid people

promatranja jezika, jeste da smo platili ljudima

to write some fake reviews. One of these reviews is fake.

da napišu neke lažne kritike. Jedna od ovih kritika je lažna.

The person never was at the James Hotel.

Osoba nikada nije bila u Džejms hotelu.

The other review is real. The person stayed there.

Druga kritika je istinita. Osoba je boravila tamo.

Now, your task now is to decide

Vaš zadatak sada je da odlučite koja kritika je lažna.

which review is fake?

I'll give you a moment to read through them.

Daću vam momenat da ih iščitate.

But I want everybody to raise their hand at some point.

Ali želim da svi podignu svoju ruku u nekom trenutku.

Remember, I study deception. I can tell if you don't raise your hand.

Setite se, ja izučavam obmanu. Mogu da zaključim da niste podigli ruku.

All right, how many of you believe that A is the fake?

U redu, koliko vas veruje da je A laž?

All right. Very good. About half.

U redu. Veoma dobro. Oko polovine.

And how many of you think that B is?

A koliko vas misli da je to B?

All right. Slightly more for B.

U redu. Malo više za B.

Excellent. Here's the answer.

Odlično. Evo odgovora.

B is a fake. Well done second group. You dominated the first group. (Laughter)

B je laž. Bravo za drugu grupu. Dominirali ste nad prvom grupom. (Smeh)

Vi ste zapravo malo neobični. Svaki put kada ovo demonstriramo,

You're actually a little bit unusual. Every time we demonstrate this,

it's usually about a 50-50 split, which fits

obično bude podela 50-50, što odgovara istraživanju, 54 procenata.

with the research, 54 percent. Maybe people here

in Winnipeg are more suspicious and better at figuring it out.

Možda su ovde u Vinipegu ljudi sumnjičaviji i bolji u otkrivanju.

Those cold, hard winters, I love it.

Te hladne, duge zime, obožavam ih.

All right, so why do I care about this?

Dobro, pa zašto bi mene bilo briga?

Well, what I can do now with my colleagues in computer science

Pa, ono što mogu da sada učinim sa svojim kolegama u informatici

is we can create computer algorithms that can analyze

je da kreiramo kompjuterske algoritme koji mogu da analiziraju

the linguistic traces of deception.

lingvističke tragove prevare.

Let me highlight a couple of things here

Dozvolite mi da ovde istaknem nekoliko stvari u lažnoj kritici.

in the fake review. The first is that liars tend to think

Prva je da su lažovi skloni da misle o narativu.

about narrative. They make up a story:

Who? And what happened? And that's what happened here.

Oni izmišljaju priču: ko i šta se dogodilo, a to se desilo i ovde.

Our fake reviewers talked about who they were with

Naši lažni kritičari su govorili o tome sa kim su bili i šta su radili.

and what they were doing. They also used the first person singular, I,

Takođe su koristili prvo lice jednine, ja,

way more than the people that actually stayed there.

mnogo više nego ljudi koji su zaista tamo boravili.

They were inserting themselves into the hotel review,

Unosili su sebe u kritiku hotela,

kind of trying to convince you they were there.

kao da pokušavaju da vas ubede da su bili tamo.

In contrast, the people that wrote the reviews that were actually there,

Nasuprot tome, ljudi koji su pisali kritike a koji su zaista bili tamo,

their bodies actually entered the physical space,

njihova tela su zapravo ušla u fizički prostor,

they talked a lot more about spatial information.

mnogo više su govorili o prostornim podacima.

They said how big the bathroom was, or they said,

Rekli su koliko je bilo kupatilo, ili su rekli,

you know, here's how far shopping is from the hotel.

znate, evo koliko su prodavnice daleko od hotela.

Now, you guys did pretty well. Most people perform at chance at this task.

Vi ste ovo prilično dobro uradili.

Većina ljudi obavlja ovaj zadatak na sreću.

Our computer algorithm is very accurate, much more accurate

Naš kompjuterski algoritam je vrlo precizan, mnogo precizniji

than humans can be, and it's not going to be accurate all the time.

nego što to ljudi mogu biti, a neće uvek biti precizan.

This isn't a deception-detection machine to tell

Ovo nije mašina za otkrivanje obmane

if your girlfriend's lying to you on text messaging.

koja otkriva da li vas devojka laže u SMS poruci.

We believe that every lie now, every type of lie --

Verujemo da svaka laž, svaki tip laži -

fake hotel reviews, fake shoe reviews,

lažne hotelske kritike, lažne kritike cipela,

your girlfriend cheating on you with text messaging --

vaša devojka koja vas obmanjuje u poruci -

those are all different lies. They're going to have

sve su to različite laži.

different patterns of language. But because everything's

Imaće različite jezičke šablone. Ali zato što se danas sve snima,

recorded now, we can look at all of those kinds of lies.

možemo da pregledamo sve te vrste laži.

Now, as I said, as a social scientist, this is wonderful.

Sad, kao što sam rekao, kao sociolog, ovo je divno.

It's transformational. We're going to be able to learn

To je transformišuće. Bićemo u mogućnosti da naučimo

so much more about human thought and expression,

toliko toga dodatnog o ljudskim mislima i izražavanju,

about everything from love to attitudes,

o svemu od ljubavi do stavova,

because everything is being recorded now, but

jer se sada sve snima, ali šta to znači za prosečnog građanina?

what does it mean for the average citizen?

What does it mean for us in our lives?

Šta to znači za nas u našim životima?

Well, let's forget deception for a bit. One of the big ideas,

Hajde da na kratko zaboravimo na prevare.

Jedna od velikih ideja, ja smatram, je da ostavljamo za sobom velike tragove.

I believe, is that we're leaving these huge traces behind.

My outbox for email is massive,

Moje otpremno sanduče za imejl je ogromno, i nikada ga ne gledam.

and I never look at it. I write all the time,

Stalno pišem, ali nikada ne gledam svoje zapise, svoje tragove.

but I never look at my record, at my trace.

And I think we're going to see a lot more of that,

I mislim da ćemo mnogo više toga tek viđati,

where we can reflect on who we are by looking at

tako da ćemo moći da se osvrnemo na ono što jesmo

what we wrote, what we said, what we did.

gledajući ono što smo napisali, rekli, uradili.

Ako se vratimo obmani, ovde postoji nekoliko stvari za poneti.

Now, if we bring it back to deception, there's a couple

of take-away things here.

First, lying online can be very dangerous, right?

Prvo, lagati na internetu može biti veoma opasno, zar ne?

Not only are you leaving a record for yourself on your machine,

Ne samo da ostavljate zapis za sebe na svojoj mašini,

but you're leaving a record on the person that you were lying to,

već ostavljate zapis osobi koju ste lagali,

i takođe ih ostavljate za mene

and you're also leaving them around for me to analyze

with some computer algorithms.

da ih analiziram nekim kompjuterskim algoritmima.

So by all means, go ahead and do that, that's good.

Dakle, svakako samo napred i uradite to, u redu je.

But when it comes to lying and what we want to do

Ali kada se radi o laganju i tome šta želimo da uradimo sa svojim životima,

with our lives, I think we can go back to

mislim da možemo da se vratimo Diogenu i Konfučiju.

Diogenes and Confucius. And they were less concerned

about whether to lie or not to lie, and more concerned about

A oni su se manje bavili time da li lagati ili ne,

a više ih je zanimalo biti iskren prema sebi,

being true to the self, and I think this is really important.

i mislim da je ovo stvarno važno.

Now, when you are about to say or do something,

Kada treba da kažete ili uradite nešto, možemo pomisliti:

we can think, do I want this to be part of my legacy,

"Da li želim da ovo bude deo moje zaostavštine, deo mojih ličnih zapisa?"

part of my personal record?

Because in the digital age we live in now,

Jer u digitalnom dobu u kome danas živimo,

in the networked age, we are all leaving a record.

u umreženom dobu, svi mi ostavljamo zapise.

Thank you so much for your time,

Hvala vam puno na vašem vremenu,

and good luck with your record. (Applause)

i srećno sa vašim zapisom. (Aplauz)