What are the most important moral problems of our time? | Will MacAskill

Prevodilac: Ivana Krivokuća Lektor: Tijana Mihajlović

This is a graph

Ovo je grafikon

that represents the economic history of human civilization.

koji predstavlja ekonomsku istoriju ljudske civilizacije.

[World GDP per capita over the last 200,000 years]

[Svetski BDP po glavi stanovnika tokom poslednjih 200 000 godina]

There's not much going on, is there.

Nema mnogo promena, zar ne?

For the vast majority of human history,

Većim delom ljudske istorije,

pretty much everyone lived on the equivalent of one dollar per day,

skoro svi su živeli na istom iznosu od jednog dolara dnevno

and not much changed.

i nije se mnogo toga menjalo.

But then, something extraordinary happened:

Ali zatim se nešto izuzetno dogodilo.

the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions.

Naučna i industrijska revolucija.

And the basically flat graph you just saw

I u suštini zaravnjen grafikon koji ste upravo videli

transforms into this.

pretvara se u ovo.

What this graph means is that, in terms of power to change the world,

Ovaj grafikon označava da, u pogledu moći da promenimo svet,

we live in an unprecedented time in human history,

živimo u jedinstvenom vremenu u ljudskoj istoriji,

and I believe our ethical understanding hasn't yet caught up with this fact.

i smatram da naše etičko shvatanje još nije sustiglo ovu činjenicu.

The Scientific and Industrial Revolutions

Naučna i industrijska revolucija

transformed both our understanding of the world

ujedno su transformisali naše razumevanje sveta

and our ability to alter it.

i našu sposobnost da ga menjamo.

What we need is an ethical revolution

Ono što nam je potrebno je etička revolucija

so that we can work out

tako da možemo da uvidimo

how do we use this tremendous bounty of resources

kako da iskoristimo ovo silno obilje resursa

to improve the world.

da bismo poboljšali svet.

For the last 10 years,

Poslednjih 10 godina,

my colleagues and I have developed a philosophy and research program

moje kolege i ja smo razvili filozofski i istraživački program

that we call effective altruism.

koji zovemo efektivni altruizam.

It tries to respond to these radical changes in our world,

On nastoji da odgovori na ove radikalne promene u svetu,

uses evidence and careful reasoning to try to answer this question:

koristi dokaze i pažljivo rasuđivanje kako bi odgovorio na ovo pitanje:

How can we do the most good?

kako možemo da učinimo što je više moguće dobrih stvari?

Now, there are many issues you've got to address

Postoji mnogo pitanja kojima se morate pozabaviti

if you want to tackle this problem:

ako hoćete da rešite ovaj problem:

whether to do good through your charity

da li da činite dobro kroz dobrotvorne akcije,

or your career or your political engagement,

kroz svoju karijeru ili političko angažovanje,

what programs to focus on, who to work with.

na koje programe da se fokusirate, sa kime da sarađujete.

But what I want to talk about

Ali ja želim da govorim

is what I think is the most fundamental problem.

o nečemu što smatram da je najosnovniji problem.

Of all the many problems that the world faces,

Od mnogih problema sa kojima se svet suočava,

which should we be focused on trying to solve first?

na čije se rešavanje treba najpre fokusirati?

Now, I'm going to give you a framework for thinking about this question,

Daću vam okvir za razmatranje ovog pitanja,

a taj okvir je veoma jednostavan.

and the framework is very simple.

A problem's higher priority,

Problem ima veći prioritet

the bigger, the more easily solvable and the more neglected it is.

što je on veći, lakše rešiv i što je više zanemaren.

Bigger is better,

Veće je bolje,

because we've got more to gain if we do solve the problem.

jer više toga dobijamo ako rešimo problem.

More easily solvable is better

Lakše rešivo je bolje

because I can solve the problem with less time or money.

jer mogu da rešim problem uz manje vremena i novca.

And most subtly,

I najsuptilnije,

more neglected is better, because of diminishing returns.

zanemarenije je bolje, zbog opadajućih prinosa.

The more resources that have already been invested into solving a problem,

Što je više resursa već uloženo u rešavanje problema,

the harder it will be to make additional progress.

teže će biti ostvariti dodatni napredak.

Now, the key thing that I want to leave with you is this framework,

Ključna stvar koju želim da upamtite jeste ovaj okvir,

so that you can think for yourself

tako da možete sami da razmišljate

what are the highest global priorities.

o tome koji su najveći svetski prioriteti.

But I and others in the effective altruism community

Ali, ja i ostali iz zajednice efektivnog altruizma

have converged on three moral issues that we believe are unusually important,

usaglasili smo se oko tri moralna problema koja smatramo izuzetno važnim,

score unusually well in this framework.

koja se izuzetno dobro kotiraju u ovom okviru.

First is global health.

Prvi je zdravlje u svetu.

This is supersolvable.

Ovo je veoma rešivo.

We have an amazing track record in global health.

Imamo neverovatna postignuća u oblasti globalnog zdravlja.

Rates of death from measles, malaria, diarrheal disease

Stope smrti od malih boginja, malarije i dijareje

are down by over 70 percent.

opale su preko 70 posto.

And in 1980, we eradicated smallpox.

A 1980. godine smo iskorenili velike boginje.

I estimate we thereby saved over 60 million lives.

Procenjujem da smo time spasili preko 60 miliona života.

That's more lives saved than if we'd achieved world peace

To je više spasenih života nego da smo ostvarili mir u svetu

in that same time period.

u tom istom periodu.

On our current best estimates,

Prema našim trenutnim najboljim procenama,

we can save a life by distributing long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets

možemo spasiti život podelivši dugotrajne mrežice tretirane insekticidima

for just a few thousand dollars.

za samo nekoliko hiljada dolara.

This is an amazing opportunity.

Ovo je neverovatna prilika.

The second big priority is factory farming.

Drugi veliki prioritet je fabričko uzgajanje.

This is superneglected.

Ovo je izuzetno zanemareno.

There are 50 billion land animals used every year for food,

Godišnje se iskoristi 50 milijardi kopnenih životinja radi ishrane,

and the vast majority of them are factory farmed,

a velika većina je fabrički uzgajana

living in conditions of horrific suffering.

i živi u uslovima užasne patnje.

They're probably among the worst-off creatures on this planet,

Verovatno su među stvorenjima u najgoroj situaciji na ovoj planeti,

and in many cases, we could significantly improve their lives

a u mnogim slučajevima bismo mogli značajno poboljšati njihov život

for just pennies per animal.

za samo nekoliko penija po životinji.

Yet this is hugely neglected.

Ipak, ova tema je veoma zanemarena.

There are 3,000 times more animals in factory farms

Ima 3 000 puta više životinja u fabrikama za uzgajanje

than there are stray pets,

nego kućnih životinja lutalica,

but yet, factory farming gets one fiftieth of the philanthropic funding.

a ipak, fabrički uzgoj dobija petnaesti deo filantropskih sredstava.

That means additional resources in this area

To znači da bi dodatna sredstva u ovoj oblasti mogla dovesti

could have a truly transformative impact.

do istinskog preobražaja.

Now the third area is the one that I want to focus on the most,

Na treću oblast bih hteo da se najviše fokusiram,

and that's the category of existential risks:

a to je kategorija egzistencijalnih opasnosti,

events like a nuclear war or a global pandemic

događaja poput nuklearnog rata ili globalne pandemije

that could permanently derail civilization

koji bi mogli civilizaciju trajno izbaciti iz koloseka

or even lead to the extinction of the human race.

ili čak dovesti do izumiranja ljudske rase.

Let me explain why I think this is such a big priority

Dozvolite da objasnim zašto mislim da je to tako veliki prioritet

in terms of this framework.

shodno ovome okviru.

First, size.

Kao prvo, veličina.

How bad would it be if there were a truly existential catastrophe?

Koliko bi bilo loše kada bi se desila prava egzistencijalna katastrofa?

Well, it would involve the deaths of all seven billion people on this planet

Pa, to bi podrazumevalo smrt svih sedam milijardi ljudi na planeti,

and that means you and everyone you know and love.

a to znači i vas i svih koje poznajete i volite.

That's just a tragedy of unimaginable size.

To je prosto tragedija nezamislivih razmera.

But then, what's more,

Ali potom, štaviše,

it would also mean the curtailment of humanity's future potential,

to bi značilo i ukidanje budućeg potencijala čovečanstva,

and I believe that humanity's potential is vast.

a ja smatram da je potencijal čovečanstva neizmeran.

The human race has been around for about 200,000 years,

Ljudska rasa postoji oko 200 000 godina,

and if she lives as long as a typical mammalian species,

a ako poživi dugo koliko i tipična vrsta sisara,

she would last for about two million years.

potrajala bi oko dva miliona godina.

If the human race were a single individual,

Kada bi ljudska rasa bila samo jedna osoba,

she would be just 10 years old today.

ona bi danas imala samo 10 godina.

And what's more, the human race isn't a typical mammalian species.

Štaviše, ljudska rasa nije tipična vrsta sisara.

There's no reason why, if we're careful,

Nema razloga da, ako smo pažljivi,

we should die off after only two million years.

izumremo nakon svega dva miliona godina.

The earth will remain habitable for 500 million years to come.

Zemlja će ostati nastanjiva još narednih 500 miliona godina.

And if someday, we took to the stars,

A ako se jednog dana vinemo u zvezde,

the civilization could continue for billions more.

civilizacija bi mogla da se nastavi još milijardama godina.

So I think the future is going to be really big,

Mislim da će budućnost biti zaista nešto posebno,

but is it going to be good?

ali hoće li biti dobra?

Is the human race even really worth preserving?

Da li uopšte vredi očuvati ljudsku rasu?

Well, we hear all the time about how things have been getting worse,

Pa, stalno slušamo o tome kako se stvari pogoršavaju,

but I think that when we take the long run,

ali mislim, kada gledamo dugoročno,

things have been getting radically better.

da su se stvari drastično poboljšale.

Here, for example, is life expectancy over time.

Ovde je, na primer, očekivani životni vek kroz vreme.

Here's the proportion of people not living in extreme poverty.

Ovde je udeo ljudi koji ne žive u krajnjem siromaštvu.

Here's the number of countries over time that have decriminalized homosexuality.

Ovde je broj zemalja koje su kroz vreme dekriminalizovale homoseksualnost.

Here's the number of countries over time that have become democratic.

Evo broja zemalja koje su kroz vreme postale demokratske.

Then, when we look to the future, there could be so much more to gain again.

Zatim, kada gledamo u budućnost, mnogo toga se ponovo može dobiti.

We'll be so much richer,

Bićemo toliko bogatiji,

we can solve so many problems that are intractable today.

možemo rešiti toliko problema koje je danas nemoguće savladati.

So if this is kind of a graph of how humanity has progressed

Dakle, ako je ovo grafikon koji pokazuje kako je čovečanstvo napredovalo

in terms of total human flourishing over time,

u pogledu ukupnog ljudskog napretka kroz vreme,

well, this is what we would expect future progress to look like.

pa, ovako bismo očekivali da izgleda napredak u budućnosti.

It's vast.

Ogroman je.

Here, for example,

Ovde bismo, na primer,

is where we would expect no one to live in extreme poverty.

očekivali da niko ne živi u uslovima krajnjeg siromaštva.

Here is where we would expect everyone to be better off

Ovde bismo očekivali da svi žive bolje

than the richest person alive today.

od najbogatije osobe na svetu danas.

Perhaps here is where we would discover the fundamental natural laws

Možda bismo ovde otkrili suštinske prirodne zakone

that govern our world.

koji upravljaju našim svetom.

Perhaps here is where we discover an entirely new form of art,

Ovde bismo možda otkrili sasvim novi oblik umetnosti,

a form of music we currently lack the ears to hear.

vrstu muzike za koju trenutno nemamo uši kojima je možemo čuti.

And this is just the next few thousand years.

A to je samo u narednih nekoliko hiljada godina.

Once we think past that,

Kada to usvojimo,

well, we can't even imagine the heights that human accomplishment might reach.

pa, ne možemo ni zamisliti visine koje ljudska postignuća mogu dosegnuti.

So the future could be very big and it could be very good,

Dakle, budućnost bi mogla biti značajna i mogla bi biti veoma dobra,

but are there ways we could lose this value?

ali da li postoji način da izgubimo tu vrednost?

And sadly, I think there are.

Nažalost, mislim da postoji.

The last two centuries brought tremendous technological progress,

Poslednja dva veka su donela ogroman tehnološki napredak,

but they also brought the global risks of nuclear war

ali su doneli i globalnu opasnost od nuklearnog rata

and the possibility of extreme climate change.

i mogućnost ekstremnih klimatskih promena.

When we look to the coming centuries,

Kada gledamo ka predstojećim vekovima,

we should expect to see the same pattern again.

treba očekivati da ponovo vidimo taj isti obrazac.

And we can see some radically powerful technologies on the horizon.

Možemo videti da se pomaljaju neke radikalno moćne tehnologije.

Synthetic biology might give us the power to create viruses

Sintetička biologija bi nam mogla dati moć da stvorimo viruse

of unprecedented contagiousness and lethality.

do sada neviđene zaraznosti i smrtnosti.

Geoengineering might give us the power to dramatically alter the earth's climate.

Geoinženjering bi nam mogao dati moć da drastično izmenimo klimu na planeti.

Artificial intelligence might give us the power to create intelligent agents

Veštačka inteligencija bi nam mogla dati moć da stvorimo inteligentne agente

with abilities greater than our own.

sa sposobnostima većim od naših.

Now, I'm not saying that any of these risks are particularly likely,

Ne kažem da su neke od ovih opasnosti posebno verovatne,

but when there's so much at stake,

ali kada je toliko toga u igri,

even small probabilities matter a great deal.

čak i male verovatnoće mnogo znače.

Imagine if you're getting on a plane and you're kind of nervous,

Zamislite da ulazite u avion i pomalo ste nervozni,

and the pilot reassures you by saying,

a pilot kaže da bi vas uverio:

"There's only a one-in-a-thousand chance of crashing. Don't worry."

„Šansa da se srušimo je samo jedan u hiljadu. Ne brinite.“

Would you feel reassured?

Da li biste se smirili?

For these reasons, I think that preserving the future of humanity

Iz tih razloga, mislim da je očuvanje budućnosti čovečanstva

is among the most important problems that we currently face.

jedan od najvažnijih problema sa kojima se trenutno suočavamo.

But let's keep using this framework.

Ali nastavimo da koristimo ovaj okvir.

Is this problem neglected?

Da li je ovaj problem zanemaren?

And I think the answer is yes,

Mislim da je odgovor da jeste,

and that's because problems that affect future generations

a to je zato što su problemi koji pogađaju buduće generacije

are often hugely neglected.

često izuzetno zanemareni.

Why?

Zašto?

Because future people don't participate in markets today.

Zato što ljudi iz budućnosti ne učestvuju na današnjem tržištu.

They don't have a vote.

Nemaju pravo glasa.

It's not like there's a lobby representing the interests

Ne postoji lobi koji zastupa interese

of those born in 2300 AD.

onih koji su rođeni 2300. godine nove ere.

They don't get to influence the decisions we make today.

Oni nemaju priliku da utiču na odluke koje donosimo danas.

They're voiceless.

Njihov glas se ne čuje.

And that means we still spend a paltry amount on these issues:

A to znači da još uvek dajemo tričave količine novca za ove probleme:

nuclear nonproliferation,

nuklearna neproliferacija,

geoengineering, biorisk,

geoinženjering, opasnost od izloženosti biološkim agensima,

artificial intelligence safety.

sigurnost veštačke inteligencije.

All of these receive only a few tens of millions of dollars

Svi ovi problemi dobijaju samo nekoliko desetina miliona dolara

of philanthropic funding every year.

od filantropskih sredstava svake godine.

That's tiny compared to the 390 billion dollars

To je neznatno u poređenju sa 390 milijardi dolara

that's spent on US philanthropy in total.

koji ukupno odlaze na filantropiju u SAD.

The final aspect of our framework then:

Potom, poslednji aspekt našeg okvira -

Is this solvable?

da li je rešivo?

I believe it is.

Verujem da jeste.

You can contribute with your money,

Možete doprineti svojim novcem,

your career or your political engagement.

svojom karijerom ili političkim angažovanjem.

With your money, you can support organizations

Svojim novcem možete podržati organizacije

that focus on these risks,

koje se fokusiraju na ove rizike,

like the Nuclear Threat Initiative,

poput Inicijative za nuklearne pretnje,

which campaigns to take nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert,

koja se zalaže da nuklearna oružja ne budu više u stanju stalne pripravnosti,

or the Blue Ribbon Panel, which develops policy to minimize the damage

ili stručnih komisija koje razvijaju strategije za smanjivanje štete

from natural and man-made pandemics,

prirodnih pandemija i onih kojima je uzrok čovek,

or the Center for Human-Compatible AI, which does technical research

ili Centra za veštacku inteligenciju kompatibilnu sa ljudima

koji vrši tehnička istraživanja

to ensure that AI systems are safe and reliable.

da bi se postarao da su sistemi VI bezbedni i pouzdani.

With your political engagement,

Svojim političkim angažovanjem

you can vote for candidates that care about these risks,

možete glasati za kandidate kojima je stalo do ovih opasnosti,

and you can support greater international cooperation.

a možete podržati i širu međunarodnu saradnju.

And then with your career, there is so much that you can do.

A svojom karijerom možete postići toliko toga.

Of course, we need scientists and policymakers and organization leaders,

Naravno, potrebni su nam naučnici,

kreatori politika i rukovodioci organizacija,

but just as importantly,

ali, jednako važno,

we also need accountants and managers and assistants

takođe nam je potrebno da računovođe, menadžeri i asistenti

to work in these organizations that are tackling these problems.

rade u organizacijama koje se bave ovim problemima.

Now, the research program of effective altruism

Istraživački program efektivnog altruizma

is still in its infancy,

još je u svom začetku,

and there's still a huge amount that we don't know.

i još postoji mnogo toga što ne znamo.

But even with what we've learned so far,

Ali čak i sa ovim što smo do sada saznali,

we can see that by thinking carefully

možemo videti da pažljivim promišljanjem

and by focusing on those problems that are big, solvable and neglected,

i fokusiranjem na one probleme koji su veliki, rešivi i zanemareni

we can make a truly tremendous difference to the world

možemo ostvariti zaista ogromnu promenu u svetu

for thousands of years to come.

koja će se odraziti na hiljade narednih godina.

Thank you.

Hvala.

(Applause)

(Aplauz)