What are the most important moral problems of our time? | Will MacAskill

譯者: Lilian Chiu 審譯者: Helen Chang

This is a graph

這是一張圖，

that represents the economic history of human civilization.

圖上的是人類文明的經濟歷史。

[World GDP per capita over the last 200,000 years]

【過去二十萬年的 世界人均國內生產總額】

There's not much going on, is there.

圖上沒多少東西。

For the vast majority of human history,

人類歷史大部分的時期，

pretty much everyone lived on the equivalent of one dollar per day,

幾乎人人都是一天 用一塊美金在過日子，

and not much changed.

沒有很大的改變。

But then, something extraordinary happened:

接著，不凡的事發生了：

the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions.

科學和工業革命。

And the basically flat graph you just saw

各位剛剛看到幾乎是平坦的圖形

transforms into this.

轉變成這樣。

What this graph means is that, in terms of power to change the world,

這張圖的意義是， 就改變世界的力量來說，

we live in an unprecedented time in human history,

我們處在人類歷史上 前所未見的時代，

and I believe our ethical understanding hasn't yet caught up with this fact.

且我認為我們的倫理領會 還沒有趕上這些發展。

The Scientific and Industrial Revolutions

科學和工業革命

transformed both our understanding of the world

轉變了我們對世界的了解

and our ability to alter it.

及我們改變世界的能力。

What we need is an ethical revolution

我們需要的是倫理革命，

so that we can work out

這樣我們才能想出

how do we use this tremendous bounty of resources

我們要如何使用這麼豐富的資源

to improve the world.

來改善世界。

For the last 10 years,

在過去十年間，

my colleagues and I have developed a philosophy and research program

我和我同事在開發 一個哲學和研究的計畫，

that we call effective altruism.

我們稱它為「有效利他主義」。

It tries to respond to these radical changes in our world,

這個計畫是在嘗試對世界上的 這些極端改變做出應變，

uses evidence and careful reasoning to try to answer this question:

使用證據和謹慎的推論 來試著回答這個問題：

How can we do the most good?

我們要如何做至善的善事？

Now, there are many issues you've got to address

你需要處理許多議題，

if you want to tackle this problem:

才能解決這個問題：

whether to do good through your charity

是否透過慈善事業、

or your career or your political engagement,

職業或參與政治來行善，

what programs to focus on, who to work with.

要投入什麼計畫，要和誰合作。

But what I want to talk about

但我想要談的

is what I think is the most fundamental problem.

是我認為最基本的問題。

Of all the many problems that the world faces,

世界所面臨的這麼多問題當中，

which should we be focused on trying to solve first?

我們應該聚焦優先解決哪一個？

Now, I'm going to give you a framework for thinking about this question,

我要提供各位一個架構， 用來思考這個問題，

and the framework is very simple.

且這個架構很簡單。

A problem's higher priority,

優先順序高的迫切問題是

the bigger, the more easily solvable and the more neglected it is.

大的、容易解決的，和被忽視的。

Bigger is better,

越大越好，

because we've got more to gain if we do solve the problem.

因為若能解決這個問題， 我們就能得到比較多。

More easily solvable is better

比較容易解決比較好，

because I can solve the problem with less time or money.

因為我可以花費較少的時間 和金錢來解決這個問題。

And most subtly,

最微妙的一點是，

more neglected is better, because of diminishing returns.

越被忽視越好，理由是報酬遞減。

The more resources that have already been invested into solving a problem,

已經投入來解決 這個問題的資源越多，

the harder it will be to make additional progress.

就越難再做出額外的進展。

Now, the key thing that I want to leave with you is this framework,

我想要留給各位的關鍵， 就是這個架構，

so that you can think for yourself

這樣各位就可以自己想想，

what are the highest global priorities.

全球最高優先順序的事是哪些。

But I and others in the effective altruism community

但我和有效利他主義社區中的其他人

have converged on three moral issues that we believe are unusually important,

已經有共識，我們認為 有三項道德議題是特別重要的，

score unusually well in this framework.

在這個架構中得到的分數特別高。

First is global health.

第一是全球健康。

This is supersolvable.

這個議題是超級可以解決的。

We have an amazing track record in global health.

關於全球健康，我們有 很驚人的過去記錄資料。

Rates of death from measles, malaria, diarrheal disease

麻疹、霍亂、痢疾的死亡率

are down by over 70 percent.

下降了超過 70%。

And in 1980, we eradicated smallpox.

1980 年，我們根絕了天花。

I estimate we thereby saved over 60 million lives.

依我估計，這就拯救了 超過六千萬條性命。

That's more lives saved than if we'd achieved world peace

就算能在那個時期達成世界和平，

in that same time period.

也救不了這麼多人。

On our current best estimates,

依我們目前最佳的估計，

we can save a life by distributing long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets

只要能發放用殺蟲劑處理過的 持久性蚊帳就能拯救一條性命，

for just a few thousand dollars.

成本不過幾千美元。

This is an amazing opportunity.

這是一個很棒的機會。

The second big priority is factory farming.

第二個優先議題，是工廠化養殖。

This is superneglected.

這個議題被嚴重忽略了。

There are 50 billion land animals used every year for food,

每年，有五百億隻陸地動物被食用，

and the vast majority of them are factory farmed,

牠們絕大多數都是工廠化養殖的，

living in conditions of horrific suffering.

生活條件非常惡劣、痛苦。

They're probably among the worst-off creatures on this planet,

牠們可能是地球上最不幸的生物，

and in many cases, we could significantly improve their lives

在許多案例中，我們都可以 大幅改善牠們的生活，

for just pennies per animal.

每隻動物只要幾分錢即可。

Yet this is hugely neglected.

但這個議題卻被嚴重忽視。

There are 3,000 times more animals in factory farms

工廠化養殖的動物數量

比街頭流浪的寵物要多三千倍，

than there are stray pets,

but yet, factory farming gets one fiftieth of the philanthropic funding.

但工廠化養殖得到的慈善資金 卻只有五十分之一。

That means additional resources in this area

這就意味著，在這個領域 若有額外的資源，

could have a truly transformative impact.

就能產生真正帶來改變的影響。

Now the third area is the one that I want to focus on the most,

第三個領域是我最想要拿來談的，

and that's the category of existential risks:

就是生存風險這個類別：

events like a nuclear war or a global pandemic

像核武戰爭或全球流行病這類事件，

that could permanently derail civilization

能夠讓文明永久脫軌，

or even lead to the extinction of the human race.

或甚至導致人類的滅絕。

Let me explain why I think this is such a big priority

讓我用這個架構 來解釋為什麼我認為

in terms of this framework.

這是個高優先的議題。

First, size.

首先，大小。

How bad would it be if there were a truly existential catastrophe?

如果真的發生了 攸關生死存亡的大災難會多糟？

Well, it would involve the deaths of all seven billion people on this planet

嗯，

它會牽涉到地球上 全部七十億人的存亡，

and that means you and everyone you know and love.

包括你和你認識、你愛的所有人。

That's just a tragedy of unimaginable size.

這個悲劇大到無法想像。

But then, what's more,

但，還不只如此，

it would also mean the curtailment of humanity's future potential,

它也意味著人類未來的 潛能會被限制，

and I believe that humanity's potential is vast.

而我相信人類的潛能很大。

The human race has been around for about 200,000 years,

人類已經存在有大約二十萬年了，

and if she lives as long as a typical mammalian species,

如果人類能活得跟典型的 哺乳動物物種一樣久，

she would last for about two million years.

就能活大約兩百萬年。

If the human race were a single individual,

如果把整體人類看成是單一個體，

she would be just 10 years old today.

人類現在才只有十歲而已。

And what's more, the human race isn't a typical mammalian species.

此外，人類並不是 典型的哺乳動物物種。

There's no reason why, if we're careful,

如果我們夠小心，

we should die off after only two million years.

我們不可能只存在 兩百萬年就絕種。

The earth will remain habitable for 500 million years to come.

在接下來的五億年， 地球都仍然會是適合居住的。

And if someday, we took to the stars,

若有一天，我們能到其他星球，

the civilization could continue for billions more.

文明就還可以再延續數十億年。

So I think the future is going to be really big,

所以我認為未來將會非常大，

but is it going to be good?

但未來會很好嗎？

Is the human race even really worth preserving?

人類真的值得保護嗎？

Well, we hear all the time about how things have been getting worse,

嗯，我們總是聽到有人說 事物變得更糟糕，

but I think that when we take the long run,

但我認為，從長期來看，

things have been getting radically better.

一切都徹底地變好了。

Here, for example, is life expectancy over time.

比如，這是各時期的預期壽命。

Here's the proportion of people not living in extreme poverty.

這是非處於極度貧窮 生活條件的人口比例。

Here's the number of countries over time that have decriminalized homosexuality.

這是各時期讓同性戀 合法化的國家數目。

Here's the number of countries over time that have become democratic.

這是各時期民主國家的數目。

Then, when we look to the future, there could be so much more to gain again.

當我們看向未來，會發現 還有好多可以獲得的。

We'll be so much richer,

我們會富有許多，

we can solve so many problems that are intractable today.

我們能夠解決許多現今的棘手問題。

So if this is kind of a graph of how humanity has progressed

如果就全人類隨時間 而過得更好的層面上來看，

in terms of total human flourishing over time,

這張圖算是某種人類進步圖，

well, this is what we would expect future progress to look like.

那麼我們預期未來進步 會是像這樣子的。

It's vast.

它很廣大。

Here, for example,

以這一點為例，

is where we would expect no one to live in extreme poverty.

我們預期到這時候就沒有人 會過著極度貧窮的生活。

Here is where we would expect everyone to be better off

在這裡，我們預期人人都會

比現今最富有的人過得更好。

than the richest person alive today.

Perhaps here is where we would discover the fundamental natural laws

也許在這裡，我們會 發現管理我們世界的

that govern our world.

基本自然法則。

Perhaps here is where we discover an entirely new form of art,

也許在這裡，我們會 發現全新的藝術形式，

a form of music we currently lack the ears to hear.

我們目前沒有辦法聽見的音樂形式。

And this is just the next few thousand years.

這只是接下來的幾千年。

Once we think past that,

一旦我們想到更遠的時間，

well, we can't even imagine the heights that human accomplishment might reach.

我們甚至無法想像 人類的成就能夠有多高。

So the future could be very big and it could be very good,

所以，未來可能是非常大， 也可能是非常好的，

but are there ways we could lose this value?

但我們會不會 以某些方式失去這價值？

And sadly, I think there are.

很不幸，我認為有可能。

The last two centuries brought tremendous technological progress,

過去兩個世紀， 發生了很巨大的技術進步，

but they also brought the global risks of nuclear war

但也帶來了核武戰爭的全球風險，

and the possibility of extreme climate change.

以及極端氣候改變的可能性。

When we look to the coming centuries,

當我們看向接下來的幾世紀，

we should expect to see the same pattern again.

我們應該會預期 再次看到同樣的模式。

And we can see some radically powerful technologies on the horizon.

我們能看到一些 極強大的技術即將問世。

Synthetic biology might give us the power to create viruses

合成生物學可能讓我們能創造出

of unprecedented contagiousness and lethality.

具有前所未見感染力 和致命度的病毒。

Geoengineering might give us the power to dramatically alter the earth's climate.

地球工程可能讓我們 能大大改變地球的氣候。

Artificial intelligence might give us the power to create intelligent agents

人工智慧可能讓我們能創造出

才能比我們更好的智慧代理人。

with abilities greater than our own.

Now, I'm not saying that any of these risks are particularly likely,

我並不是說上述這些風險 特別有可能發生，

but when there's so much at stake,

但當賭注有這麼高的時候，

even small probabilities matter a great deal.

即使很低的機率也是非常要緊的。

Imagine if you're getting on a plane and you're kind of nervous,

想像一下，如果你要 上飛機，且你蠻緊張的，

and the pilot reassures you by saying,

而駕駛員說了 這樣的話來向你保證：

"There's only a one-in-a-thousand chance of crashing. Don't worry."

「墜機的機會只有 一千分之一。別擔心。」

Would you feel reassured?

你會覺得安心嗎？

For these reasons, I think that preserving the future of humanity

基於這些理由， 我認為保護人類的未來

is among the most important problems that we currently face.

是我們目前所面臨 最重要的問題之一。

But let's keep using this framework.

但，咱們繼續用這個架構吧。

Is this problem neglected?

這個問題有被忽視嗎？

And I think the answer is yes,

我認為答案是「有」，

and that's because problems that affect future generations

那是因為會影響未來世代的問題

are often hugely neglected.

通常被嚴重忽視。

Why?

為什麼？

Because future people don't participate in markets today.

因為未來的人並沒有 參與現今的市場。

They don't have a vote.

他們沒有投票權。

It's not like there's a lobby representing the interests

並沒有一個遊說團會代表

of those born in 2300 AD.

2300 年出生者的利益。

They don't get to influence the decisions we make today.

他們無法影響我們現今所做的決策。

They're voiceless.

他們無法發聲。

And that means we still spend a paltry amount on these issues:

那就表示，我們在 這些議題上投入非常少：

nuclear nonproliferation,

防止核武器擴散、

geoengineering, biorisk,

地球工程、生物危險、

artificial intelligence safety.

人工智慧安全性。

All of these receive only a few tens of millions of dollars

所有這些議題每年都只得到

of philanthropic funding every year.

幾千萬美元的慈善資金。

That's tiny compared to the 390 billion dollars

這個數字相對很小， 因為美國的總慈善金額

that's spent on US philanthropy in total.

為三千九百億美元。

The final aspect of our framework then:

接著，架構的最後一個面向：

Is this solvable?

它是可解決的嗎？

I believe it is.

我相信是的。

You can contribute with your money,

你可以貢獻你的金錢、

your career or your political engagement.

你的職業，或你的政治參與。

With your money, you can support organizations

若你投入金錢，你可以資助組織，

that focus on these risks,

讓它們著重這些風險，

like the Nuclear Threat Initiative,

比如「核威脅倡議」，

which campaigns to take nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert,

它在做的是不要讓核武 處在一觸即發的警戒狀態，

or the Blue Ribbon Panel, which develops policy to minimize the damage

或「藍絲帶小組」， 它在做的是開發政策，

把自然發生和人為造成的流行病 所造成的影響給最小化，

from natural and man-made pandemics,

or the Center for Human-Compatible AI, which does technical research

或「人類相容人工智慧中心」， 它是在做技術研究，

to ensure that AI systems are safe and reliable.

確保人工智慧系統的安全可靠。

With your political engagement,

若你投入的是政治參與，

you can vote for candidates that care about these risks,

你可以投票給在乎 這些風險的候選人，

and you can support greater international cooperation.

你也可以支持更大的國際合作。

And then with your career, there is so much that you can do.

若你投入的是職業， 你能做的非常多。

Of course, we need scientists and policymakers and organization leaders,

當然，我們需要科學家、 政策制訂者，和組織領導人，

but just as importantly,

但，同樣重要的，

we also need accountants and managers and assistants

我們也需要會計師、經理人和助理，

to work in these organizations that are tackling these problems.

在這些能夠處理 這些問題的組織中工作。

Now, the research program of effective altruism

有效利他主義的研究專案

is still in its infancy,

還在初期階段，

and there's still a huge amount that we don't know.

還有很多我們不知道的。

But even with what we've learned so far,

但，就我們目前所知道的來說，

we can see that by thinking carefully

我們可以看到，若能謹慎思考，

and by focusing on those problems that are big, solvable and neglected,

並把焦點放在那些可解決、 被忽視的大問題上，

we can make a truly tremendous difference to the world

我們就能在接下來的數千年，

for thousands of years to come.

真正造成很大的不同，改變世界。

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Applause)

（掌聲）