What are the most important moral problems of our time? | Will MacAskill

翻译人员: duan JiGang 校对人员: Yiyang Piao

This is a graph

这是一张曲线图

that represents the economic history of human civilization.

它展现了人类文明的经济史.

[World GDP per capita over the last 200,000 years]

（过去20万年的世界人均GDP）

There's not much going on, is there.

没什么在发生，不是吗。

For the vast majority of human history,

在人类历史的长河中，

pretty much everyone lived on the equivalent of one dollar per day,

几乎每人每天用一美元来生活，

and not much changed.

并且没有什么变化。

But then, something extraordinary happened:

但是后来，发生了一个重大的事件：

the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions.

科学和工业革命。

And the basically flat graph you just saw

刚才你们所看到的平缓的曲线图

transforms into this.

变成了这样。

What this graph means is that, in terms of power to change the world,

这幅图表现的是， 就改变世界的能力而言，

we live in an unprecedented time in human history,

我们现在所处的时代是空前的，

and I believe our ethical understanding hasn't yet caught up with this fact.

并且我认为我们伦理上的理解 还没有赶上这一事实。

The Scientific and Industrial Revolutions

科学和工业革命

transformed both our understanding of the world

不光改变了我们对世界的认知

and our ability to alter it.

也提高了我们改变世界的能力。

What we need is an ethical revolution

我们所需要的 是一场伦理道德层面上的革命

so that we can work out

这样我们才能解决

how do we use this tremendous bounty of resources

怎么利用这些丰富的资源

to improve the world.

让世界变得更美好。

For the last 10 years,

在过去的10年中，

my colleagues and I have developed a philosophy and research program

我和同事开展了一项哲学研究计划，

that we call effective altruism.

我们称之为有效的利他主义。

It tries to respond to these radical changes in our world,

这项研究计划尝试去解决 当今世界所发生的巨变，

uses evidence and careful reasoning to try to answer this question:

依据事实证据和缜密的推理 来回答这一问题：

How can we do the most good?

我们怎样才可以 最大效益得做好事呢？

Now, there are many issues you've got to address

现今，有许多待解决的问题

if you want to tackle this problem:

如果你想要解决这个大难题，

whether to do good through your charity

无论你是通过做慈善

or your career or your political engagement,

还是通过你的职业， 或是通过政治活动，

what programs to focus on, who to work with.

你专注的项目， 或你工作的对象来为世界得益。

But what I want to talk about

但是我想讨论的是

is what I think is the most fundamental problem.

我认为在所有问题之中， 最根本的问题

Of all the many problems that the world faces,

这个世界所面临的所有问题中

which should we be focused on trying to solve first?

哪一个应是我们首先解决的问题?

Now, I'm going to give you a framework for thinking about this question,

现在，我将要给出 一个框架来思考这个问题，

and the framework is very simple.

这个框架很简单。

A problem's higher priority,

一个问题的优先级越高，

the bigger, the more easily solvable and the more neglected it is.

这问题就越大，就越容易解决， 也最容易被忽略。

Bigger is better,

越大越好。

because we've got more to gain if we do solve the problem.

因为我们若解决了这个问题， 我们会获利极多。

More easily solvable is better

越容易解决越好，

because I can solve the problem with less time or money.

因为我可以花费更少的钱和 时间来解决这个问题。

And most subtly,

最微妙的是，

more neglected is better, because of diminishing returns.

根据收益递减规律， 问题越容易被忽视越好。

The more resources that have already been invested into solving a problem,

若前期已投入资源过多， 来解决这个问题

the harder it will be to make additional progress.

就越难取得额外的进展。

Now, the key thing that I want to leave with you is this framework,

现在，我想要留给你们最关键的东西 就是这个框架，

so that you can think for yourself

这样你可以自己去思考

what are the highest global priorities.

什么问题具有全球最高的优先级。

But I and others in the effective altruism community

但是在这个高效利他主义群体中， 我和其他的人

have converged on three moral issues that we believe are unusually important,

一致认为有三个的道德问题

score unusually well in this framework.

在这个框架中占据重要的地位。

First is global health.

第一个是全球卫生。

This is supersolvable.

这是最易解决的。

We have an amazing track record in global health.

我们对于全球卫生 有一个惊人的跟踪记录。

Rates of death from measles, malaria, diarrheal disease

麻疹，疟疾和痢疾引起的死亡率

are down by over 70 percent.

已经降低了70%。

And in 1980, we eradicated smallpox.

并且在1980年， 我们根治了天花。

I estimate we thereby saved over 60 million lives.

我估计因此而拯救了 超过6000万条的生命。

That's more lives saved than if we'd achieved world peace

这些生命数量比 若在同时期取得世界和平

in that same time period.

拯救的生命还要多。

On our current best estimates,

根据我们目前的最佳估计，

we can save a life by distributing long-lasting insecticide-treated bed nets

我们可以通过分配长期有效的、 具有杀虫功效的蚊帐来拯救生命，

for just a few thousand dollars.

而这些蚊帐只花费几千元。

This is an amazing opportunity.

这是一个惊人的机会。

The second big priority is factory farming.

第二优先问题就是农业工厂化。

This is superneglected.

这一点被严重忽视了。

There are 50 billion land animals used every year for food,

每年有500亿陆生动物 被作为食物。

and the vast majority of them are factory farmed,

它们中的大部分是工厂化养殖的，

living in conditions of horrific suffering.

这些动物居住在痛苦的生存环境中。

They're probably among the worst-off creatures on this planet,

它们可能是这个地球上最惨的生物，

and in many cases, we could significantly improve their lives

并且在很多情况下， 我们可以大幅度改善它们的生活，

for just pennies per animal.

只需为每一个动物花费几分钱 就可以做到。

Yet this is hugely neglected.

然而这一点也被极度忽略了。

There are 3,000 times more animals in factory farms

工业化农场里的动物数量是

流浪动物的3000倍多，

than there are stray pets,

but yet, factory farming gets one fiftieth of the philanthropic funding.

但是工业化养殖的动物 只获得了1/5的慈善基金。

That means additional resources in this area

这意味着，在这个领域若有更多资源

could have a truly transformative impact.

可以产生一个真正的变革性影响。

Now the third area is the one that I want to focus on the most,

接下来第三个领域是我最想强调的。

and that's the category of existential risks:

这就是存亡风险：

events like a nuclear war or a global pandemic

一些像核战争或者全球性瘟疫的事件

that could permanently derail civilization

这些可能永久地使文明脱节，

or even lead to the extinction of the human race.

或者甚至导致人类种族的灭绝。

Let me explain why I think this is such a big priority

让我来解释下为什么我认为这件事情

in terms of this framework.

是这个框架下最具优先级的事情。

First, size.

第一，规模。

How bad would it be if there were a truly existential catastrophe?

如果出现一个毁灭性的灾难， 情况将会变得多糟糕？

Well, it would involve the deaths of all seven billion people on this planet

它将牵扯到这个星球上 70亿人类的生死，

and that means you and everyone you know and love.

当然包括你自己以及 你认识或者深爱的任何人。

That's just a tragedy of unimaginable size.

这将是一个不可想象规模的悲剧。

But then, what's more,

但是然后，还有呢。

it would also mean the curtailment of humanity's future potential,

它同时预示着人类未来潜力的缩减，

and I believe that humanity's potential is vast.

我相信人类的潜力是巨大的。

The human race has been around for about 200,000 years,

人类已经存在了大约20万年了，

and if she lives as long as a typical mammalian species,

如果她像一个典型的哺乳物种 活得一样长的话，

she would last for about two million years.

她将会持续200万年。

If the human race were a single individual,

如果人类是一个单一的个体，

she would be just 10 years old today.

那么她今天就只有10岁。

And what's more, the human race isn't a typical mammalian species.

更何况，人类不是 一个典型的哺乳动物，

There's no reason why, if we're careful,

没有理由，如果我们细心的话，

we should die off after only two million years.

我们将会在200万年后灭亡。

The earth will remain habitable for 500 million years to come.

而地球在未来的5亿年 仍将保持可居住状态。

And if someday, we took to the stars,

如果有一天，我们登上了星球，

the civilization could continue for billions more.

那么文明将会继续数十亿年。

So I think the future is going to be really big,

所以，我认为未来将会真的很宽广，

but is it going to be good?

但是未来一定会更好吗？

Is the human race even really worth preserving?

人类种族真的还值得保留吗？

Well, we hear all the time about how things have been getting worse,

是的，我们一直都在 听到事情如何变得更糟的消息。

but I think that when we take the long run,

但是我相信当我们做长远打算时，

things have been getting radically better.

情况已经大为好转。

Here, for example, is life expectancy over time.

比如，人类平均寿命在延长。

Here's the proportion of people not living in extreme poverty.

很大比例的人不再生活异常贫困。

Here's the number of countries over time that have decriminalized homosexuality.

将同性恋合法化的国家数量在增加。

Here's the number of countries over time that have become democratic.

民主化的国家数量也在增加。

Then, when we look to the future, there could be so much more to gain again.

所以，当展望未来时， 我们可以获得更多东西。

We'll be so much richer,

我们将变得更富有，

we can solve so many problems that are intractable today.

我们可以解决很多 如今看来很棘手的问题。

So if this is kind of a graph of how humanity has progressed

所以，如果这是一个 人类进步曲线图的话，

in terms of total human flourishing over time,

它基于人类随着时间的推移 如何繁荣昌盛，

well, this is what we would expect future progress to look like.

这将会是未来我们期望看到的进展。

It's vast.

它很广阔。

Here, for example,

比如。

is where we would expect no one to live in extreme poverty.

在这个点，我们期望没人会生活在 极度的贫困中。

Here is where we would expect everyone to be better off

在个点，我们期待每个人都会比

than the richest person alive today.

比当今最富裕的人过的还好。

Perhaps here is where we would discover the fundamental natural laws

或许在这里，我们将会发现统治世界

that govern our world.

的基本自然法则。

Perhaps here is where we discover an entirely new form of art,

或许在这个点，我们将会发现 一个全新的艺术形式，

a form of music we currently lack the ears to hear.

或者是一种当下我们没有能力 去倾听的音乐。

And this is just the next few thousand years.

这仅仅是未来的几千年。

Once we think past that,

每当我们回首过往时，

well, we can't even imagine the heights that human accomplishment might reach.

我们甚至都不敢相信 人类曾经取得的高度。

So the future could be very big and it could be very good,

所以，前景可能会很广阔， 也可能会很好，

but are there ways we could lose this value?

但是，是否会有一些情况， 会使得我们丧失这些价值？

And sadly, I think there are.

悲伤地是，我认为是他们是存在的。

The last two centuries brought tremendous technological progress,

过去两个世纪带来了 巨大的技术进步，

but they also brought the global risks of nuclear war

但是技术进步同时带来了 核战争的全球危机

and the possibility of extreme climate change.

还有极端气候变化的可能性。

When we look to the coming centuries,

当我们观望未来的世纪时，

we should expect to see the same pattern again.

我们应该期望看到同样的样式。

And we can see some radically powerful technologies on the horizon.

我们能够看到未来会有的 一些激进强大的技术。

Synthetic biology might give us the power to create viruses

合成生物学使得我们能够创病毒，

of unprecedented contagiousness and lethality.

而这些病毒具有不可预测的传染性和 杀伤力。

Geoengineering might give us the power to dramatically alter the earth's climate.

地质工程可能给予我们 极大改变气候的力量。

Artificial intelligence might give us the power to create intelligent agents

人工智能可能会给予我们 创造智能终端的力量，

with abilities greater than our own.

而这些智能终端会比人类 具备更强的能力。

Now, I'm not saying that any of these risks are particularly likely,

现在，我并不是说所有这些风险 都特别的有可能实现，

but when there's so much at stake,

但当这一切都岌岌可危时。

even small probabilities matter a great deal.

甚至一个小的可能性 也会造成大的惨剧。

Imagine if you're getting on a plane and you're kind of nervous,

想象你登上一个飞机，你有点紧张，

and the pilot reassures you by saying,

并且飞行员在欢迎你时说到，

"There's only a one-in-a-thousand chance of crashing. Don't worry."

“飞机只有千分之一的几率会坠毁， 别担心。”

Would you feel reassured?

你会感觉安心吗？

For these reasons, I think that preserving the future of humanity

基于这些原因， 我认为保留人类的未来这件事情

is among the most important problems that we currently face.

是我们目前面临的最重要的难题。

But let's keep using this framework.

然而，让我们继续来使用这个框架。

Is this problem neglected?

这个问题被忽略了吗？

And I think the answer is yes,

并且我认为答案是 “是的”，

and that's because problems that affect future generations

这是因为影响人类后代的问题

are often hugely neglected.

通常都被极大地忽略了。

Why?

为什么？

Because future people don't participate in markets today.

因为未来人类没有参与今天的市场。

They don't have a vote.

他们没有任何决策权。

It's not like there's a lobby representing the interests

并没有一个大厅来展示他们的利益，

of those born in 2300 AD.

我指的是出生在公元2300年 这些人的利益。

They don't get to influence the decisions we make today.

他们没法影响我们今天所做的决定。

They're voiceless.

他们是无声的。

And that means we still spend a paltry amount on these issues:

这意味着我们在这些问题上的投入 微乎其微：

nuclear nonproliferation,

防止核扩散，

geoengineering, biorisk,

地质工程，生物风险，

artificial intelligence safety.

还有人工智能的安全性。

All of these receive only a few tens of millions of dollars

所有这些课题， 每年只能接受大约千万美金

of philanthropic funding every year.

的慈善基金。

That's tiny compared to the 390 billion dollars

这些和美国每年花费的

that's spent on US philanthropy in total.

3900亿慈善基金比起来 简直就是九牛一毛。

The final aspect of our framework then:

我们这个框架的最后一个方面：

Is this solvable?

这个问题可以解决吗？

I believe it is.

我相信是可以解决的。

You can contribute with your money,

你可以用你的钱来做贡献，

your career or your political engagement.

或者通过你的职业， 或者你的政治参与来贡献。

With your money, you can support organizations

使用你的钱，你可以支持那些

that focus on these risks,

聚焦在这些风险上的组织机构，

like the Nuclear Threat Initiative,

比如核威胁倡议组织，

which campaigns to take nuclear weapons off hair-trigger alert,

这个组织旨在将核武器 从一触即发的警告中消除，

or the Blue Ribbon Panel, which develops policy to minimize the damage

或者蓝丝带小组， 这个组织旨在开发政策来最小化

from natural and man-made pandemics,

自然或者人为流行病带来的伤害，

or the Center for Human-Compatible AI, which does technical research

或者人类兼容人工智能中心， 这个组织做一些研究

to ensure that AI systems are safe and reliable.

以确保人工智能系统是安全 并且可靠的。

With your political engagement,

通过你的政治参与活动

you can vote for candidates that care about these risks,

你可以投票给 那些关心这些风险的候选人，

and you can support greater international cooperation.

你也可以支持更大的国际化合作。

And then with your career, there is so much that you can do.

然后，通过你的职业， 有很多事情你可以做。

Of course, we need scientists and policymakers and organization leaders,

毫无疑问，我们需要科学家， 需要政策制定者和组织领导者，

but just as importantly,

但是同样重要的是，

we also need accountants and managers and assistants

我们也需要财会，经理人和助理，

to work in these organizations that are tackling these problems.

为解决这些难题的组织工作。

Now, the research program of effective altruism

当前，针对有效利他主义的研究程序

is still in its infancy,

还处于幼儿期。

and there's still a huge amount that we don't know.

我们对很多东西仍不了解。

But even with what we've learned so far,

但是，仅仅就目前我们所学到的东西 而言，

we can see that by thinking carefully

我们可以发现，通过认真思考

and by focusing on those problems that are big, solvable and neglected,

并且聚焦在这些巨大， 可解决并且被忽略的问题上，

we can make a truly tremendous difference to the world

我们可以对世界作出 真正意义上巨大的改变，

for thousands of years to come.

这些改变是为了未来的几千年。

Thank you.

谢谢。

(Applause)

(掌声)