Andrew McAfee: Are droids taking our jobs?

162,289 views ・ 2012-09-24

TED


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00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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Prevodilac: Miloš Milosavljević Lektor: Mile Živković
00:15
As it turns out, when tens of millions of people are unemployed
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Izgleda da, kada je desetine miliona ljudi
nezaposleno ili nedovoljno zaposleno,
00:19
or underemployed,
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00:20
there's a fair amount of interest in what technology might be doing
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ima puno interesovanja za ono što tehnologija
možda čini za radnu snagu.
00:24
to the labor force.
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00:25
And as I look at the conversation,
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I kad pogledam taj razgovor,
00:27
it strikes me that it's focused on exactly the right topic,
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upada mi u oči da je fokusiran na pravu temu,
00:30
and at the same time, it's missing the point entirely.
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i u isto vreme, promašuje suštinu u potpunosti.
00:33
The topic that it's focused on,
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Tema na koju je fokusiran, pitanje da li ili ne
00:35
the question is whether or not all these digital technologies are affecting
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sve ove digitalne tehnologije utiču na sposobnost ljudi
00:39
people's ability to earn a living,
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da zarade za život
00:41
or, to say it a little bit different way,
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ili da kažemo to na malo drugačiji način
00:43
are the droids taking our jobs?
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da li nam androidi uzimaju poslove?
00:45
And there's some evidence that they are.
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I evo nekih dokaza da to rade.
00:47
The Great Recession ended when American GDP resumed
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Velika recesija se završila kad je američki bruto domaći proizvod
00:51
its kind of slow, steady march upward,
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povratio svoj spori, postojani hod naviše
00:54
and some other economic indicators also started to rebound,
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i neki drugi ekonomski pokazatelji su takođe počeli da skaču
00:58
and they got kind of healthy kind of quickly.
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i brzo su se oporavili.
01:00
Corporate profits are quite high;
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Korporativni profiti su prilično visoki.
01:02
in fact, if you include bank profits,
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U stvari, ako uključite profite banaka, oni su veći nego ikada.
01:04
they're higher than they've ever been.
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01:06
And business investment in gear -- in equipment
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I poslovno ulaganje u pribor, u opremu
i hardver i softver je najveće ikada.
01:10
and hardware and software -- is at an all-time high.
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01:12
So the businesses are getting out their checkbooks.
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Tako da firme vade svoje čekovne knjižice.
01:16
What they're not really doing is hiring.
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A to ne rade da bi zapošljavale.
01:18
So this red line
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Ova crvena linija je odnos zaposlenosti i populacije,
01:19
is the employment-to-population ratio,
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01:22
in other words, the percentage of working-age people in America
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drugim rečima, procenat radno sposobnih ljudi
u Americi koji imaju posao.
01:26
who have work.
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01:27
And we see that it cratered during the Great Recession,
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I vidimo da se sunovratila tokom Velike recesije,
i nije uopšte počela da se ponovo podiže.
01:31
and it hasn't started to bounce back at all.
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Ali priča nije samo priča o recesiji.
01:34
But the story is not just a recession story.
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01:36
The decade that we've just been through had
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Decenija koju smo upravo prošli imala je relativno
01:39
relatively anemic job growth all throughout,
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anemičan porast posla za sve vreme njenog trajanja,
01:42
especially when we compare it to other decades,
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naročito kada je uporedimo sa drugim decenijama i 2000-te
01:44
and the 2000s are the only time we have on record
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su jedini period kada smo zabeležili
01:47
where there were fewer people working at the end of the decade
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da manje ljudi radi na kraju decenije
01:51
than at the beginning.
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nego na početku.
01:52
This is not what you want to see.
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To nije nešto što želite da vidite.
01:54
When you graph the number of potential employees
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Kada crtate grafikon broja potencijalnih zaposlenih
01:58
versus the number of jobs in the country,
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suprotstavljen broju poslova u zemlji, vidite da jaz
02:00
you see the gap gets bigger and bigger over time,
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postaje sve veći i veći tokom vremena i onda,
02:04
and then, during the Great Recession, it opened up in a huge way.
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u toku Velike recesije, se mnogo proširio.
Uradio sam neke brze proračune.
02:08
I did some quick calculations.
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02:09
I took the last 20 years of GDP growth
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Uzeo sam rast bruto domaćeg proizvoda u zadnjih 20 godina
02:12
and the last 20 years of labor-productivity growth
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i rast radne produktivnosti u zadnjih 20 godina
02:15
and used those in a fairly straightforward way
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i iskoristio sam ih na prilično uobičajen način
da pokušam da predvidim koliko će poslova ekonomiji
02:18
to try to project how many jobs the economy was going to need
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biti potrebno na nastavi rast, i ovo je linija koju sam dobio.
02:21
to keep growing,
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02:22
and this is the line that I came up with.
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02:24
Is that good or bad?
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Je li to dobro ili loše?
02:26
This is the government's projection
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Ovo je predviđanje vlade za radno sposobno stanovništvo unapred.
02:28
for the working-age population going forward.
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02:31
So if these predictions are accurate, that gap is not going to close.
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Ako su ova predviđanja tačna, taj jaz se neće zatvoriti.
02:36
The problem is, I don't think these projections are accurate.
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Problem je taj što ja ne mislim da su ova predviđanja tačna.
02:39
In particular, I think my projection is way too optimistic,
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U stvari, mislim da je moje predviđanje suviše optimistično
02:43
because when I did it,
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jer kad sam ga radio, pretpostavljao sam da će budućnost
02:44
I was assuming that the future was kind of going to look like the past,
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izgledati otprilike isto kao i prošlost
sa rastom radne produktivnosti, a to u stvari nije ono u šta verujem,
02:49
with labor productivity growth,
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02:50
and that's actually not what I believe.
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02:52
Because when I look around,
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jer kad se osvrnem, mislim da još ništa nismo videli
02:54
I think that we ain't seen nothing yet
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02:56
when it comes to technology's impact on the labor force.
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kad je u pitanju uticaj tehnologije na radnu snagu.
02:59
Just in the past couple years, we've seen digital tools
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Samo u poslednjih nekoliko godina, videli smo digitalne alate
03:03
display skills and abilities that they never, ever had before,
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koji pokazuju veštine i mogućnosti koje nikad ranije nisu imali,
i to se nekako uvlači duboko u ono što mi kao ljudska bića
03:08
and that kind of eat deeply into what we human beings
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03:11
do for a living.
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radimo da bi se izdržavali.
03:13
Let me give you a couple examples.
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Daću vam par primera.
Tokom cele istorije, ako ste želeli da nešto prevedete
03:15
Throughout all of history,
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03:16
if you wanted something translated from one language into another,
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sa jednog jezika na drugi,
03:19
you had to involve a human being.
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morali ste da uključite ljudsko biće u to.
03:21
Now we have multi-language, instantaneous,
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Sada imamo multijezičke, trenutne,
automatske prevodilačke servise dostupne besplatno
03:25
automatic translation services available for free
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03:29
via many of our devices, all the way down to smartphones.
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preko mnogih naših uređaja sve do smart telefona.
03:32
And if any of us have used these,
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I ako smo ih nekad koristili, znamo da nisu savršeni, ali su pristojni.
03:34
we know that they're not perfect, but they're decent.
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03:38
Throughout all of history, if you wanted something written,
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Kroz celu istoriju, ako ste hteli nešto napisano,
03:41
a report or an article, you had to involve a person.
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izveštaj ili članak, morali ste da uključite osobu.
Ne više. Ovo je članak koji se pojavio
03:45
Not anymore.
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03:46
This is an article that appeared in Forbes online a while back,
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u Forbsu na internetu pre nekog vremena, o Eplovim zaradama.
03:49
about Apple's earnings.
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03:50
It was written by an algorithm.
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Napisao ga je algoritam.
03:52
And it's not decent -- it's perfect.
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I nije pristojan. Savršen je.
Mnogi vide ovo i kažu:
03:57
A lot of people look at this and they say,
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"Okej, ali to su vrlo specifični, uski zadaci,
03:59
"OK, but those are very specific, narrow tasks,
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04:01
and most knowledge workers are actually generalists.
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a većina radnika koji koriste znanje u stvari ima opšte znanje,
04:04
And what they do is sit on top of a very large body of expertise and knowledge
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i ono što oni rade je da koriste veoma veliki skup
stručnosti i znanja i to koriste
04:08
and they use that to react on the fly to kind of unpredictable demands,
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da reaguju u hodu na donekle nepredvidive zahteve,
04:12
and that's very, very hard to automate."
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a to je jako, jako teško automatizovati."
Jedan od najimpresivnijih radnika koji koriste znanje u svom radu
04:15
One of the most impressive knowledge workers in recent memory
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04:17
is a guy named Ken Jennings.
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u skorijem sećanju je čovek po imenu Ken Dženings.
04:19
He won the quiz show "Jeopardy!" 74 times in a row.
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On je pobedio u kvizu "Džepardi!" 74 puta zaredom,
04:24
Took home three million dollars.
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odnevši kući tri miliona dolara.
04:27
That's Ken on the right, getting beat three-to-one
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Ovo desno je Ken koga sa 3-1 pobeđuje
04:30
by Watson, the Jeopardy-playing supercomputer from IBM.
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Votson, superkompjuter za igranje "Džepardija" iz IBM-a.
04:35
So when we look at what technology can do to general knowledge workers,
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Tako da kad vidimo šta tehnologija može da uradi
radnicima sa opštim znanjem, počinjem da mislim
04:39
I start to think there might not be something so special
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da možda nema ničeg posebnog u ovoj ideji
04:42
about this idea of a generalist,
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o radnicima opšteg znanja, posebno kad počnemo da radimo stvari
04:44
particularly when we start doing things like hooking Siri up to Watson,
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kao što su spajanje Siri i Votsona i dobijemo uređaje
04:48
and having technologies that can understand what we're saying
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koji mogu da razumeju šta govorimo
04:51
and repeat speech back to us.
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i ponove nam govor.
04:53
Now, Siri is far from perfect, and we can make fun of her flaws,
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Siri je daleko od savršenog, i možemo da se smejemo
njenim manama, ali takođe treba da imamo na umu da
04:57
but we should also keep in mind
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04:59
that if technologies like Siri and Watson improve along a Moore's law trajectory,
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ako tehnologije kao Siri i Votson napreduju
sledeći liniju Murovog zakona, što hoće,
05:04
which they will,
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05:06
in six years, they're not going to be two times better or four times better,
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za šest godina, one neće biti dva puta bolje
ili četiri puta bolje, nego će biti 16 puta bolje nego što su sada.
05:09
they'll be 16 times better than they are right now.
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05:13
So I start to think a lot of knowledge work is going to be affected by this.
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Tako da mislim da će ovo da utiče na mnoge vrste rada koji koriste znanje.
05:17
And digital technologies are not just impacting knowledge work,
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I digitalne tehnologije ne zadaju udarce samo radu u kome se koristi znanje.
05:21
they're starting to flex their muscles in the physical world as well.
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One počinju da stežu svoje mišiće i u fizičkom svetu.
05:24
I had the chance a little while back to ride in the Google autonomous car,
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Imao sam priliku pre nekog vremena da se vozim u Guglovom
autonomnom vozilu, koje je baš tako kul kao što zvuči.
05:28
which is as cool as it sounds.
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05:30
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
I posvedočiću da se snašao u kreni-stani saobraćaju
05:33
And I will vouch that it handled the stop-and-go traffic on US 101
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na putu U.S. 101 vrlo glatko.
05:37
very smoothly.
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05:38
There are about three and a half million people who drive trucks for a living
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Ima oko tri i po miliona ljudi
koji profesionalno voze kamione u Sjedinjenim Državama.
05:42
in the United States;
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05:43
I think some of them are going to be affected by this technology.
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Mislim da će na neke od njih uticati ova tehnologija.
05:46
And right now, humanoid robots are still incredibly primitive.
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A sada, humanoidni roboti su još neverovatno primitivni.
05:49
They can't do very much.
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Oni ne mogu da urade mnogo.
05:51
But they're getting better quite quickly
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Ali napreduju prilično brzo i DARPA,
05:53
and DARPA, which is the investment arm of the Defense Department,
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koja je investiciona ruka Ministarstva odbrane,
05:57
is trying to accelerate their trajectory.
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pokušava da ubrza njihovu putanju.
05:59
So, in short, yeah, the droids are coming for our jobs.
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Ukratko, da, androidi će preuzeti naše poslove.
Na kratak rok, možemo da podstičemo porast radnih mesta
06:05
In the short term, we can stimulate job growth
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06:08
by encouraging entrepreneurship
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podsticanjem preduzetništva i ulaganjem u infrastrukturu,
06:10
and by investing in infrastructure,
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zato što roboti danas još nisu
06:12
because the robots today still aren't very good at fixing bridges.
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baš dobri u popravljanju mostova.
06:15
But in the not-too-long-term,
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Ali u ne tako dugom periodu, misaim u toku životnog veka
06:17
I think within the lifetimes of most of the people in this room,
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većine ljudi u ovoj prostoriji, ući ćemo u tranziciju
06:21
we're going to transition into an economy that is very productive,
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ka ekonomiji koja je vrlo produktivna
ali kojoj ne treba mnogo ljudskih radnika,
06:25
but that just doesn't need a lot of human workers.
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06:28
And managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge
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i rukovođenje tom tranzicijom će biti
najveći izazov sa kojim se suočava naše društvo.
06:31
that our society faces.
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06:32
Voltaire summarized why; he said,
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Volter je sumirao zbog čega. On kaže: "Rad nas spašava
06:34
"Work saves us from three great evils: boredom, vice and need."
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od tri najveća zla: dosade, poroka i oskudice."
06:40
But despite this challenge --
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Ali uprkos ovom izazovu, ja sam lično,
06:42
personally, I'm still a huge digital optimist,
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još uvek veliki digitalni optimista
06:45
and I am supremely confident
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i krajnje sam uveren da će nas digitalne tehnologije
06:47
that the digital technologies that we're developing now
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koje sada razvijamo odvesti u utopijsku budućnost, a ne distopijsku.
06:50
are going to take us into a Utopian future,
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06:52
not a dystopian future.
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06:54
And to explain why,
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I da bih objasnio zašto,
06:55
I want to pose a ridiculously broad question.
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želim da postavim jedno apsurdno široko pitanje.
06:58
I want to ask:
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Želim da pitam koja su bila najvažnija
06:59
what have been the most important developments in human history?
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dostignuća u ljudskoj istoriji?
07:03
Now, I want to share some of the answers that I've gotten
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Želim da podelim sa vama neke od odgovora koje sam dobio
07:06
in response to this question.
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na ovo pitanje.
07:07
It's a wonderful question to ask and start an endless debate about,
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To je divno pitanje
u vezi s kojim se otvara beskonačna rasprava
07:10
because some people are going to bring up
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zato što će neki ljudi izneti
07:12
systems of philosophy in both the West and the East
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filozofske sisteme Zapada i Istoka
07:15
that have changed how a lot of people think about the world.
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koji su promenili način na koji mnogi ljudi razmišljaju o svetu.
07:19
And then other people will say,
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I onda drugi ljudi će reći: "Ne, u stvari, velike priče,
07:20
"No, actually, the big stories, the big developments
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velika dostignuća su osnivanje najvećih svetskih religija,
07:23
are the founding of the world's major religions,
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07:25
which have changed civilizations and have changed and influenced
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koje su promenile civilizacije
i promenile i uticale na to kako nebrojeni ljudi žive svoje živote."
07:29
how countless people are living their lives."
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07:31
And then some other folk will say,
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I onda neki drugi će reći:
07:33
"Actually, what changes civilizations,
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"U stvari, ono što menja civilizacije, ono što ih modifikuje
07:35
what modifies them and what changes people's lives are empires,
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i što menja živote ljudi
su carstva, tako da su velika dostignuća u ljudskoj istoriji
07:40
so the great developments in human history
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priče o osvajanju i ratu."
07:43
are stories of conquest and of war."
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07:45
And then some cheery soul usually always pipes up and says,
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I onda neka vesela duša obično zapeva
07:48
"Hey, don't forget about plagues!"
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i kaže: "Hej, ne zaboravite kugu."
07:50
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:54
There are some optimistic answers to this question,
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Ima nekih optimističkih odgovora na ovo pitanje,
07:56
so some people will bring up the Age of Exploration
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pa će neki ljudi izneti razdoblje velikih geografskih otkrića
07:59
and the opening up of the world.
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08:00
Others will talk about intellectual achievements in disciplines like math
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i otvaranje sveta.
Drugi će pričati o intelektualnim dostignućima
u disciplinama kao što je matematika
08:04
that have helped us get a better handle on the world,
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koja su nam pomogla da bolje upravljamo svetom,
08:07
and other folk will talk about periods when there was a deep flourishing
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a drugi će pričati o periodima kada su cvetali umetnost i nauke.
08:10
of the arts and sciences.
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08:12
So this debate will go on and on.
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Tako će se ova rasprava nastaviti.
08:13
It's an endless debate
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To je beskrajna rasprava, i ne postoji nijedan zaključni,
08:15
and there's no conclusive, single answer to it.
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jedan odgovor na to.
08:18
But if you're a geek like me,
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Ali ako ste štreber kao ja, reći ćete: "Šta kažu podaci?"
08:20
you say, "Well, what do the data say?"
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08:22
And you start to do things
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I počinjete da radite stvari kao što su grafikoni koji bi nas možda interesovali,
08:24
like graph things that we might be interested in --
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08:26
the total worldwide population, for example,
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cela svetska populacija na primer
ili neka mera društvenog razvoja
08:30
or some measure of social development
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08:32
or the state of advancement of a society.
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ili stanje napretka društva,
08:34
And you start to plot the data, because, by this approach,
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i počinjete da povezujete podatke, jer, po ovom pristupu
velike priče, velika dostignuća u ljudskoj istoriji,
08:39
the big stories, the big developments in human history,
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08:41
are the ones that will bend these curves a lot.
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su ona koja puno savijaju ove krive.
08:44
So when you do this and when you plot the data,
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Tako da kad uradite ovo i kad povežete podatke,
08:46
you pretty quickly come to some weird conclusions.
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vrlo brzo dođete do nekih čudnih zaključaka.
08:49
You conclude, actually,
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Zaključite u stvari da ništa od ovih stvari
08:50
that none of these things have mattered very much.
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nije bilo naročito važno.
08:53
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
08:57
They haven't done a darn thing to the curves.
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One nisu nimalo uticale na krive.
09:00
There has been one story, one development in human history
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Bila je jedna priča, jedno dostignuće
u ljudskoj istoriji koje je savilo krivu, savilo je otprilike
09:05
that bent the curve, bent it just about 90 degrees,
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za 90 stepeni i to je tehnološki događaj.
09:08
and it is a technology story.
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09:11
The steam engine and the other associated technologies
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Parna mašina i druge povezane tehnologije
09:14
of the Industrial Revolution
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industrijske revolucije su promenile svet
09:16
changed the world and influenced human history so much,
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i uticale na ljudsku istoriju toliko,
09:19
that in the words of the historian Ian Morris,
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da, po rečima istoričara Ijana Morisa,
09:21
"... they made mockery out of all that had come before."
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narugale su se svemu što je bilo pre.
09:25
And they did this by infinitely multiplying the power of our muscles,
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I ovo su uradile tako što su beskonačno umnožile snagu naših mišića,
prevazilazeći ograničenja naših mišića.
09:29
overcoming the limitations of our muscles.
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09:31
Now, what we're in the middle of now
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Ono usred čega se nalazimo sada
je prevazilaženje ograničenja naših individualnih mozgova
09:34
is overcoming the limitations of our individual brains
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i beskonačno umnožavanje naše mentalne snage.
09:37
and infinitely multiplying our mental power.
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Kako to može da ne bude isto tako važno kao i prevazilaženje
09:40
How can this not be as big a deal
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09:43
as overcoming the limitations of our muscles?
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ograničenja naših mišića?
09:46
So at the risk of repeating myself a little bit,
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Rizikujući da se malo ponavljam, kad pogledam šta se dešava
09:48
when I look at what's going on with digital technology these days,
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sa digitalnom tehnologijom danas,
09:52
we are not anywhere near through with this journey.
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nismo ni izbliza gotovi sa ovim putovanjem
09:55
And when I look at what is happening to our economies and our societies,
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i kad pogledam šta se dešava sa našim ekonomijama
i našim društvima, moj jedini zaključak je da
09:59
my single conclusion is that we ain't seen nothing yet.
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nismo još ništa videli.
10:02
The best days are really ahead.
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Najbolji dani su tek ispred nas.
10:04
Let me give you a couple examples.
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Da vam dam nekoliko primera.
10:06
Economies don't run on energy.
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Ekonomije ne pokreće energija.
10:08
They don't run on capital, they don't run on labor.
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Njih ne pokreće kapital, ne pokreće ih radna snaga.
10:11
Economies run on ideas.
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Ekonomije pokreću ideje.
10:14
So the work of innovation, the work of coming up with new ideas,
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Tako da je rad na inovacijama, rad na pronalaženju
novih ideja, jedan od najsnažnijih,
10:17
is some of the most powerful, most fundamental work that we can do
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jedan od najosnovnijih radova koje možemo da obavljamo u ekonomiji.
10:21
in an economy.
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10:22
And this is kind of how we used to do innovation.
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Ovako smo radili na inovaciji.
10:25
We'd find a bunch of fairly similar-looking people ...
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Našli bismo gomilu ljudi koji prilično liče jedni na druge
10:28
(Laughter)
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- (Smeh) -
izvadili bismo ih iz elitnih institucija, stavili bismo ih
10:32
We'd take them out of elite institutions,
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10:34
we'd put them into other elite institutions
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u druge elitne institucije i čekali na inovaciju.
10:36
and we'd wait for the innovation.
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10:37
Now --
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Sad -
10:38
(Laughter)
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(Smeh) -
10:41
as a white guy who spent his whole career at MIT and Harvard,
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kao belac koji je proveo celu svoju karijeru na MIT-u i Harvardu,
10:44
I've got no problem with this.
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ja nemam problem s tim.
10:46
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:50
But some other people do,
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Ali neki drugi ljudi imaju i oni su nekako upali na žurku
10:51
and they've kind of crashed the party
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10:53
and loosened up the dress code of innovation.
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i olabavili kodeks odevanja inovacije.
10:55
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
10:56
So here are the winners of a Topcoder programming challenge,
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Evo pobednika "Top koder" takmičenja u programiranju
11:00
and I assure you that nobody cares
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i uveravam vas da nikog nije briga
11:02
where these kids grew up, where they went to school,
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gde su ovi klinci odrasli, gde su išli u školu
11:06
or what they look like.
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ili kako izgledaju.
11:08
All anyone cares about is the quality of the work, the quality of the ideas.
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Sve što ikoga zanima je kvalitet rada, kvalitet ideja.
11:11
And over and over again, we see this happening
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I opet iznova, vidimo da se ovo dešava
11:14
in the technology-facilitated world.
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u svetu koji je olakšan tehnologijom.
11:16
The work of innovation is becoming more open,
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Rad na inovacijama postaje otvoreniji,
11:19
more inclusive, more transparent and more merit-based,
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uključeniji, transparentniji i više zasnovan na zaslugama,
11:22
and that's going to continue no matter what MIT and Harvard think of it,
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i to će se nastaviti bez obzira šta MIT i Harvard misle o tome
11:26
and I couldn't be happier about that development.
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i ja ne mogu biti srećniji zbog tog razvoja.
11:29
I hear once in a while, "OK, I'll grant you that,
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Čujem ponekad: "Okej, priznajem to,
ali tehnologija je još uvek alat za bogati svet
11:32
but technology is still a tool for the rich world,
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11:35
and what's not happening,
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i ono što se ne dešava, je da ovi digitalni alati
11:36
these digital tools are not improving the lives
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ne poboljšavaju živote ljudi na dnu piramide."
11:39
of people at the bottom of the pyramid."
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11:41
And I want to say to that very clearly: nonsense.
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I ja želim da kažem vrlo jasno: gluposti.
11:44
The bottom of the pyramid is benefiting hugely from technology.
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Dno piramide ima ogromne koristi od tehnologije.
11:47
The economist Robert Jensen did this wonderful study a while back
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Ekonomista Robert Džensen je uradio ovu divnu studiju
pre nekog vremena gde smo videli, jako detaljno,
11:51
where he watched, in great detail,
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11:53
what happened to the fishing villages of Kerala, India,
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šta se desilo sa ribarskim selima u Kerali, u Indiji,
11:56
when they got mobile phones for the very first time.
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kada su dobili mobilne telefone prvi put,
11:59
And when you write for the Quarterly Journal of Economics,
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i kada pišete za "Quarterly Journal of Economics",
12:02
you have to use very dry and very circumspect language.
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morate da koristite vrlo suv i oprezan jezik
12:05
But when I read his paper,
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ali kada čitam njegov rad, imam utisak da Džensen pokušava
12:06
I kind of feel Jensen is trying to scream at us
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12:08
and say, "Look, this was a big deal.
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da nam vikne, i kaže: vide, ovo je bila velika stvar.
Cene su stabilizovane, tako da ljudi mogu da planiraju svoje živote.
12:11
Prices stabilized, so people could plan their economic lives.
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12:14
Waste was not reduced -- it was eliminated.
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Otpad nije smanjen; eliminisan je.
I životi i kupaca i prodavaca
12:19
And the lives of both the buyers and the sellers
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12:21
in these villages measurably improved."
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u ovim selima su se primetno poboljšali.
12:24
Now, what I don't think is that Jensen got extremely lucky
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Ne mislim da je Džensen imao neverovatnu sreću
12:27
and happened to land in the one set of villages
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i da se slučajno zaustavio u jednom skupu sela
12:30
where technology made things better.
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gde je tehnologija poboljšala stvari.
12:32
What happened instead is he very carefully documented
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Ono što se u stvari desilo je da je on brižljivo dokumentovao
12:35
what happens over and over again when technology comes for the first time
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šta se dešava stalno iznova kada tehnologija
stigne po prvi put u okolinu i u zajednicu.
12:39
to an environment and a community:
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12:41
the lives of people, the welfares of people, improve dramatically.
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Životi ljudi, blagostanja ljudi, poboljšavaju se dramatično.
Tako da kad se osvrnem na sve dokaze i pomislim
12:45
So as I look around at all the evidence
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12:46
and I think about the room that we have ahead of us,
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na prostor koji imamo ispred nas, postajem veliki digitalni optimista,
12:49
I become a huge digital optimist
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12:51
and I start to think that this wonderful statement from the physicist Freeman Dyson
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i počinjem da mislim da ova divna izjava
fizičara Frimena Dajsona nije u stvari hiperbola.
12:55
is actually not hyperbole.
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12:57
This is an accurate assessment of what's going on.
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To je tačna procena onoga što se dešava.
13:00
Our technologies are great gifts,
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Naše tehnologije su veliki pokloni,
13:02
and we, right now, have the great good fortune
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i mi sada imamo veliku sreću
13:05
to be living at a time when digital technology is flourishing,
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da živimo u vreme kad digitalna tehnologija cveta,
13:09
when it is broadening and deepening and becoming more profound
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kada se širi i produbljuje
i postaje temeljnija širom sveta.
13:13
all around the world.
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13:14
So, yeah, the droids are taking our jobs,
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I da, androidi preuzimaju naše poslove,
13:17
but focusing on that fact misses the point entirely.
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ali fokusiranjem na tu činjenicu, potpuno se propušta poenta.
13:21
The point is that then we are freed up to do other things,
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Poenta je da smo onda slobodni da radimo druge stvari,
13:24
and what we're going to do, I am very confident,
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i ono što ćemo da uradimo, ubeđen sam,
13:27
what we're going to do is reduce poverty
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ono što ćemo da uradimo je da smanjimo siromaštvo i kulučenje
13:29
and drudgery and misery around the world.
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i bedu širom sveta.
13:32
I'm very confident we're going to learn to live more lightly on the planet,
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Ubeđen sam da ćemo naučiti da živimo lakše na planeti,
13:36
and I am extremely confident that what we're going to do
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i krajnje sam ubeđen da će ono što ćemo uraditi
13:39
with our new digital tools
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sa našim novim digitalnim alatima biti toliko duboko
13:41
is going to be so profound and so beneficial
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i toliko korisno da će izvrgnuti ruglu
13:44
that it's going to make a mockery out of everything that came before.
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sve što je bilo pre.
13:47
I'm going to leave the last word
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Ostaviću zadnju reč čoveku koji je bio
13:49
to a guy who had a front-row seat for digital progress,
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u prvim redovima digitalnog napretka,
13:51
our old friend Ken Jennings.
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našem starom prijatelju Kenu Dženingsu.
13:53
I'm with him; I'm going to echo his words:
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Slažem se s njim. Ponoviću njegove reči:
13:55
"I, for one, welcome our new computer overlords."
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"Poželeću, za početak, dobrodošlicu našim novim kompjuterskim gospodarima."
13:58
(Laughter)
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13:59
Thanks very much.
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(Smeh)
Hvala mnogo. (Aplauz)
14:01
(Applause)
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About this website

This site will introduce you to YouTube videos that are useful for learning English. You will see English lessons taught by top-notch teachers from around the world. Double-click on the English subtitles displayed on each video page to play the video from there. The subtitles scroll in sync with the video playback. If you have any comments or requests, please contact us using this contact form.

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