Andrew McAfee: Are droids taking our jobs?

162,289 views ใƒป 2012-09-24

TED


์•„๋ž˜ ์˜๋ฌธ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ”ํด๋ฆญํ•˜์‹œ๋ฉด ์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.

00:00
Translator: Joseph Geni Reviewer: Morton Bast
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๋ฒˆ์—ญ: Woo Hwang ๊ฒ€ํ† : K Bang
00:15
As it turns out, when tens of millions of people are unemployed
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์•Œ๋ ค์ง„๋ฐ๋กœ, ์ˆ˜๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
์‹ค์งํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์— ๋งž์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ์ผ์„ ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๊ณ ,
00:19
or underemployed,
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00:20
there's a fair amount of interest in what technology might be doing
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์–ด๋–ค ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ๋…ธ๋™๋ ฅ์„ ๋Œ€์ฒดํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€์— ๋งŽ์€ ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:24
to the labor force.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋“ค์„ ๋“ค์œผ๋ฉด์„œ,
00:25
And as I look at the conversation,
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00:27
it strikes me that it's focused on exactly the right topic,
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์•„์ฃผ ์ ์ ˆํ•œ ์ฃผ์ œ์— ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:30
and at the same time, it's missing the point entirely.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋™์‹œ์—, ์ „์ฒด์ ์œผ๋กœ๋Š” ๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ๋…ผ์ ์„ ๋†“์น˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:33
The topic that it's focused on,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ๋“ค์ด ๊ด€์‹ฌ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ์ฃผ์ œ๋Š”
00:35
the question is whether or not all these digital technologies are affecting
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์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋“ค์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์ƒ๊ณ„๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์—
00:39
people's ability to earn a living,
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์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ฃผ๋Š๋ƒ ์ด๊ฑฐ๋‚˜, ์กฐ๊ธˆ ๋‹ค๋ฅด๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•˜๋ฉด
00:41
or, to say it a little bit different way,
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00:43
are the droids taking our jobs?
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๋กœ๋ด‡์ด๋‚˜ ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋“ค์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์ง์—…์„ ๋Œ€์‹ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š๋ƒ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:45
And there's some evidence that they are.
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๋Œ€์‹ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
00:47
The Great Recession ended when American GDP resumed
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์˜ GDP(๊ตญ๋‚ด์ด์ƒ์‚ฐ)๊ฐ€ ์„œ์„œํžˆ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜์„œ
00:51
its kind of slow, steady march upward,
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์ง€์†์ ์ธ ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ ์ƒ์Šน์ด ์žˆ๊ณ , ๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ
00:54
and some other economic indicators also started to rebound,
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๊ฒฝ์ œ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋“ค์ด ๋‹ค์‹œ ๋ฐ˜๋“ฑํ•˜๋ฉด์„œ, ๊ฒฝ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ฑด๊ฐ•ํ•ด์ง€๊ณ  ๋น ๋ฅธ ํšŒ๋ณต์„ ๋ณด์ผ ๋•Œ,
00:58
and they got kind of healthy kind of quickly.
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๋Œ€๊ณตํ™ฉ์ด ๋๋‚ฌ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํšŒ์‚ฌ๋“ค์€ ์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ
01:00
Corporate profits are quite high;
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๋†’์€ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ์˜ฌ๋ฆฝ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๊ธฐ์— ์€ํ–‰์˜ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ํฌํ•จํ•˜๋ฉด,
01:02
in fact, if you include bank profits,
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01:04
they're higher than they've ever been.
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์–ด๋Š๋•Œ ๋ณด๋‹ค ๋” ๋งŽ์€ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ์ฐฝ์ถœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:06
And business investment in gear -- in equipment
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๊ธฐ๊ณ„, ์žฅ์น˜, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ํ•˜๋“œ์›จ์–ด์™€ ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ
ํˆฌ์ž๋Š” ํ•ญ์ƒ ๋งŽ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:10
and hardware and software -- is at an all-time high.
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01:12
So the businesses are getting out their checkbooks.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์‚ฌ์—…์€ ์ˆ˜์ต์„ ์Ÿ์•„๋‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:16
What they're not really doing is hiring.
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๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์™€์ค‘์— ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๊ณ ์šฉ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:18
So this red line
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด ๋นจ๊ฐ„์ƒ‰ ์„ ์€ ์ธ๊ตฌ๋Œ€๋น„ ๊ณ ์šฉ ๋น„์œจ์„ ๋ณด์—ฌ์ค๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
01:19
is the employment-to-population ratio,
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01:22
in other words, the percentage of working-age people in America
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๋‹ค์‹œ ๋งํ•ด์„œ, ๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ๊ณ ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ธ๊ตฌ์ค‘
์ง์—…์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ์ธ๊ตฌ๋น„์œจ์„ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:26
who have work.
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01:27
And we see that it cratered during the Great Recession,
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๋Œ€๊ณตํ™ฉ์ค‘์— ๊ทธ ๋น„์œจ์ด ๋– ์–ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
01:31
and it hasn't started to bounce back at all.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ „ํ˜€ ํšŒ๋ณต์˜ ๊ธฐ๋ฏธ๊ฐ€ ๋ณด์ด์ง€ ์•Š๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:34
But the story is not just a recession story.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ๊ธฐ์นจ์ฒด์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:36
The decade that we've just been through had
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ์‚ด์•„์˜จ ๋ช‡ ์‹ญ๋…„๊ฐ„์€
01:39
relatively anemic job growth all throughout,
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๋น„๊ต์  ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ ์„ฑ์žฅ์ด ๋‚ฎ์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:42
especially when we compare it to other decades,
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ํŠนํžˆ, ๋‹ค๋ฅธ 10๋…„ ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„๋“ค๊ณผ ๋น„๊ตํ•ด ๋ณด๋ฉด,
01:44
and the 2000s are the only time we have on record
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2000๋…„๋Œ€๊ฐ€ ์œ ์ผํ•˜๊ฒŒ
01:47
where there were fewer people working at the end of the decade
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์ดˆ๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ๋ณด๋‹ค ํ›„๋ฐ˜๊ธฐ์— ๋” ์ ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
01:51
than at the beginning.
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์ผ์„ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์›ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
01:52
This is not what you want to see.
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01:54
When you graph the number of potential employees
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์—์„œ ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ ๊ฐฏ์ˆ˜์™€ ํ”ผ๊ณ ์šฉ์ธ ์ˆซ์ž๋ฅผ
01:58
versus the number of jobs in the country,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๋กœ ๊ทธ๋ ค๋ณด๋ฉด, ์‹œ๊ฐ„์ด ์ง€๋‚ ์ˆ˜๋ก
02:00
you see the gap gets bigger and bigger over time,
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๊ทธ ์ฐจ์ด๊ฐ€ ์ ์  ๋” ๋ฒŒ์–ด์ง€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์•Œ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
02:04
and then, during the Great Recession, it opened up in a huge way.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋Œ€๊ณตํ™ฉ์—๋Š” ์•„์ฃผ ํฌ๊ฒŒ ๋ฒŒ์–ด์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ œ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํžˆ ๊ณ„์‚ฐ์„ ํ•ด๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ง€๋‚œ 20๋…„๊ฐ„์˜
02:08
I did some quick calculations.
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02:09
I took the last 20 years of GDP growth
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02:12
and the last 20 years of labor-productivity growth
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GDP ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ๊ณผ ๋…ธ๋™ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ์„ ๋น„๊ตํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
02:15
and used those in a fairly straightforward way
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์ด ๋‘๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ง€ํ‘œ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ„๋‹จํ•œ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ ๋น„๊ตํ•˜์—ฌ
02:18
to try to project how many jobs the economy was going to need
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์„ฑ์žฅ์„ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ๋งŽ์€ ์ผ์ž๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•„์š”ํ•œ์ง€
์˜ˆ์ธกํ•ด ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๊ฐ€ ๋‚˜์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:21
to keep growing,
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02:22
and this is the line that I came up with.
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02:24
Is that good or bad?
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์ด๊ฒŒ ์ข‹์€๊ฑธ๊นŒ์š” ๋‚˜์œ๊ฑธ๊นŒ์š”? ์ด ๋ถ€๋ถ„์€ ์ •๋ถ€๊ฐ€ ์˜ˆ์ธกํ•œ
02:26
This is the government's projection
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๊ณ ์šฉ ๊ฐ€๋Šฅํ•œ ์ธ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ๋Š˜์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ถ”์„ธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:28
for the working-age population going forward.
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02:31
So if these predictions are accurate, that gap is not going to close.
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์ด ์˜ˆ์ธก ์ž๋ฃŒ๊ฐ€ ์ •ํ™•ํ•˜๋‹ค๋ฉด, ๊ทธ ์ฐจ์ด๋Š” ์ค„์–ด๋“ค์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:36
The problem is, I don't think these projections are accurate.
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๋ฌธ์ œ๋Š”, ์ €๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์˜ˆ์ธก๋“ค์ด ๋งž๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:39
In particular, I think my projection is way too optimistic,
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ํŠนํžˆ, ์ œ ์˜ˆ์ธก์€ ๋„ˆ๋ฌด ๋‚™๊ด€์ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
02:43
because when I did it,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋Š”
02:44
I was assuming that the future was kind of going to look like the past,
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๊ณผ๊ฑฐ์— ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋˜ ๋…ธ๋™ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์„ฑ ์„ฑ์žฅ๊ณผ
02:49
with labor productivity growth,
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๋น„์Šทํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์ •์„ ํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ , ์‚ฌ์‹ค ๊ทธ๊ฑด ์ œ๊ฐ€ ๋ฏฟ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
02:50
and that's actually not what I believe.
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02:52
Because when I look around,
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์ฃผ์œ„๋ฅผ ๋‘˜๋Ÿฌ๋ณด๋ฉด, ๋…ธ๋™๋ ฅ์— ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ์˜ํ–ฅ์ด ๋ฏธ์น˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
02:54
I think that we ain't seen nothing yet
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02:56
when it comes to technology's impact on the labor force.
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์•„์ง ๋ณด์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
02:59
Just in the past couple years, we've seen digital tools
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์ง€๋‚œ ๋ช‡ ๋…„๋™์•ˆ์—, ์ด์ „์—๋Š” ๋ณธ์ ์ด ์—†๋Š”
03:03
display skills and abilities that they never, ever had before,
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๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๋„๊ตฌ๋“ค์ด ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ฐœํœ˜ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋จน๊ณ  ์‚ด๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ ํ•˜๋˜ ์ผ๋“ค์„
03:08
and that kind of eat deeply into what we human beings
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03:11
do for a living.
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์‹ฌ๊ฐํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ถ•๋‚ด๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋” ๋ง์”€ ๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:13
Let me give you a couple examples.
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03:15
Throughout all of history,
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์—ญ์‚ฌ์ ์œผ๋กœ ๋ณผ๋•Œ, ํ•œ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์–ธ์–ด๋ฅผ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์–ธ์–ด๋กœ
03:16
if you wanted something translated from one language into another,
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๋ฒˆ์—ญํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์„ ๋•Œ๋Š”,
03:19
you had to involve a human being.
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๋ฐ˜๋“œ์‹œ ํ†ต์—ญํ•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜ ๋ฒˆ์—ญํ•˜๋Š” ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ํ•„์š”ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:21
Now we have multi-language, instantaneous,
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์ง€๊ธˆ์€ ๋‹ค์–‘ํ•œ ์–ธ์–ด๋ฅผ ์‹ค์‹œ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ
03:25
automatic translation services available for free
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์ž๋™ ๋ฒˆ์—ญํ•ด์ฃผ๋Š” ์„œ๋น„์Šค๋ฅผ ์Šค๋งˆํŠธํฐ์— ๋‹ค์šด๋กœ๋“œ ๋ฐ›์•„
03:29
via many of our devices, all the way down to smartphones.
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๊ณต์งœ๋กœ ์ด์šฉํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:32
And if any of us have used these,
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ์„œ๋น„์Šค๋ฅผ ์ด์šฉํ•ด๋ณด์‹  ๋ถ„๋“ค์€
03:34
we know that they're not perfect, but they're decent.
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์™„๋ฒฝํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์ง€๋งŒ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋Œ€๋กœ ๊ดœ์ฐฎ๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์‹ค๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:38
Throughout all of history, if you wanted something written,
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์ด์ „์—๋Š”, ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ๋ณด๊ณ ์„œ๋‚˜ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธ€์„
03:41
a report or an article, you had to involve a person.
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์“ฐ๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ๋Š”, ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์ด ๊ธ€์“ฐ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ๋ฐ ์ด์ œ ๋”์ด์ƒ ๊ทธ๋ ‡์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:45
Not anymore.
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03:46
This is an article that appeared in Forbes online a while back,
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์–ผ๋งˆ์ „ ํฌ๋ธŒ์Šค(Forbes)์ง€์— ์˜ฌ๋ผ์˜จ ์• ํ”Œ์‚ฌ์˜ ์ˆ˜์ต์— ๊ด€ํ•œ ๊ธฐ์‚ฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:49
about Apple's earnings.
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03:50
It was written by an algorithm.
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์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ ์•Œ๊ณ ๋ฆฌ์ฆ˜์— ์˜ํ•ด ์ž‘์„ฑ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
03:52
And it's not decent -- it's perfect.
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์ด๊ฑด ๊ทธ์ € ์“ธ๋งŒํ•œ ์ •๋„๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ ์™„๋ฒฝํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋“ค์„ ๋ณด๊ณ  ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
03:57
A lot of people look at this and they say,
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03:59
"OK, but those are very specific, narrow tasks,
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"์ข‹๋„ค์š”, ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ํŠน์ • ๋ถ„์•ผ๋‚˜ ๋งค์šฐ ํ•œ์ •์ ์ธ ์ž‘์—…๋งŒ ํ•˜๋„ค์š”,"
04:01
and most knowledge workers are actually generalists.
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"๋Œ€๋ถ€๋ถ„์˜ ์ง€์‹ ๊ทผ๋กœ์ž๋“ค์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ๋‹ค๋ฐฉ๋ฉด์— ๋Šฅํ†ตํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,"
04:04
And what they do is sit on top of a very large body of expertise and knowledge
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"๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ „๋ฌธ๊ฐ€๋“ค์ด๋‚˜, ์ง€์‹์˜ ์ตœ์ƒ์œ„ ๊ณ„์ธต์— ์•‰์•„์„œ"
"์˜ˆ์ƒํ•˜์ง€ ๋ชปํ•œ ์š”๊ตฌ์‚ฌํ•ญ์—"
04:08
and they use that to react on the fly to kind of unpredictable demands,
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"๊ทธ๋•Œ ๊ทธ๋•Œ ์ง€์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฐ˜์‘ํ•˜๊ณ "
04:12
and that's very, very hard to automate."
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"๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ž‘์—…์„ ์ž๋™ํ™”ํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€ ๋งค์šฐ ์–ด๋ ต์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
์ตœ๊ทผ ์ œ ๊ธฐ์–ต์†์— ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ธ์ƒ๊นŠ์—ˆ๋˜
04:15
One of the most impressive knowledge workers in recent memory
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์ง€์‹ ๊ทผ๋กœ์ž ์ค‘์— ํ•œ๋ช…์€ ์ผ„ ์ œ๋‹์Šค(Ken Jennings)๋ผ๋Š” ์นœ๊ตฌ์˜€์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:17
is a guy named Ken Jennings.
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04:19
He won the quiz show "Jeopardy!" 74 times in a row.
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์ œํผ๋””(Jeopardy) ํ€ด์ฆˆ์‡ผ์—์„œ 74๋ฒˆ์ด๋‚˜ ์—ฐ์†์œผ๋กœ ์šฐ์Šนํ•ด์„œ
04:24
Took home three million dollars.
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์•ฝ 34์–ต์„ ์ƒ๊ธˆ์œผ๋กœ ๋ฐ›์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
IBM์˜ ์Šˆํผ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ ์™“์Šจ์˜ ์˜ค๋ฅธ์ชฝ์— ์žˆ๋Š” ์นœ๊ตฌ๊ฐ€ ์ผ„์ธ๋ฐ์š”,
04:27
That's Ken on the right, getting beat three-to-one
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04:30
by Watson, the Jeopardy-playing supercomputer from IBM.
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์ด ์Šˆํผ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ์—๊ฒŒ 3๋Œ€ 1๋กœ ์กŒ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:35
So when we look at what technology can do to general knowledge workers,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์ผ๋ฐ˜์ ์ธ ์ง€์‹ ๊ทผ๋กœ์ž๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„
๋ณด๋ฉด์„œ ์ €๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ฐ•ํ•™๋‹ค์‹ํ•œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€
04:39
I start to think there might not be something so special
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์ด์ œ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€ ํŠน๋ณ„ํ•œ๊ฒŒ ์—†์„ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๊ฒ ๋‹ค๋Š” ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
04:42
about this idea of a generalist,
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ํŠนํžˆ, ์‹œ๋ฆฌ(Siri, ์• ํ”Œ์˜ ์Œ์„ฑ์ธ์‹ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋žจ)์—์„œ ์™“์Šจ ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ ๊นŒ์ง€
04:44
particularly when we start doing things like hooking Siri up to Watson,
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์—ฐ๊ฒฐํ•ด๋ณด๊ณ , ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ดํ•ดํ•˜๊ณ 
04:48
and having technologies that can understand what we're saying
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๋‹ค์‹œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๋ญ”๊ฐ€๋ฅผ ๋งํ•˜๋Š” ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋“ค์„
04:51
and repeat speech back to us.
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๋ณผ ๋•Œ๋Š” ๋”์šฑ ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ์ƒ๊ฐ์ด ๋“ญ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
04:53
Now, Siri is far from perfect, and we can make fun of her flaws,
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์ž, ์‹œ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์•„์ง ์™„๋ฒฝํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
ํ—ˆ์ˆ ํ•จ์„ ๋น„์›ƒ์ง€๋งŒ, ๋งŒ์•ฝ ์‹œ๋ฆฌ๋‚˜ ์™“์Šจ๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด
04:57
but we should also keep in mind
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04:59
that if technologies like Siri and Watson improve along a Moore's law trajectory,
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๋ฌด์–ด์˜ ๋ฒ•์น™(Moore's Law)์„ ๋”ฐ๋ผ ํ–ฅ์ƒ๋œ๋‹ค๋ฉด, * ๋ฌด์–ด์˜ ๋ฒ•์น™ : ๋ฐ˜๋„์ฒด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋ ฅ์ด 18๊ฐœ์›”๋งˆ๋‹ค 2๋ฐฐ์”ฉ ์ฆ๊ฐ€ํ•œ๋‹ค๋Š” ๋ฒ•์น™.
๊ทธ๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋˜๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ ๋ง์ด์ฃ , 6๋…„์ด ์ง€๋‚˜๋ฉด
05:04
which they will,
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05:06
in six years, they're not going to be two times better or four times better,
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๋‹จ์ˆœํžˆ 2๋ฐฐ ๋˜๋Š” 4๋ฐฐ ์ •๋„๊ฐ€ ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ
์ง€๊ธˆ๋ณด๋‹ค 16๋ฐฐ๊ฐ€๋Ÿ‰ ๋” ์ข‹์•„์ง„๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ช…์‹ฌํ•ด์•ผ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:09
they'll be 16 times better than they are right now.
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05:13
So I start to think a lot of knowledge work is going to be affected by this.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ €๋Š” ๋งŽ์€ ์ง€์‹ ๋…ธ๋™๋“ค์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋“ค์— ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›๋Š”๋‹ค๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:17
And digital technologies are not just impacting knowledge work,
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๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์€ ๋‹จ์ง€ ์ง€์‹ ๋…ธ๋™์—๋งŒ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ฃผ์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋“ค์€ ์œก์ฒด์ ์ธ ๋…ธ๋™์—๋„ ์˜ํ–ฅ๋ ฅ์„ ๋ฐœํœ˜ํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:21
they're starting to flex their muscles in the physical world as well.
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05:24
I had the chance a little while back to ride in the Google autonomous car,
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์–ผ๋งˆ ์ „์— ๊ตฌ๊ธ€์—์„œ ๋งŒ๋“  ๋ฌด์ธ ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋ฅผ ํƒ€๋ณด์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
๋ง๊ทธ ๋Œ€๋กœ ๋ฉ‹์žˆ์ฃ . (์›ƒ์Œ)
05:28
which is as cool as it sounds.
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05:30
(Laughter)
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์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žฅ๋‹ดํ•˜๊ฑด๋ฐ ์ด ์ž๋™์ฐจ๋Š” 101๋ฒˆ ๊ณ ์†๋„๋กœ์—์„œ
05:33
And I will vouch that it handled the stop-and-go traffic on US 101
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์ฃผํ–‰๊ณผ ์ •์ง€๋ฅผ ์•„์ฃผ ์ž์—ฐ์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ํ•ด๋ƒˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:37
very smoothly.
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05:38
There are about three and a half million people who drive trucks for a living
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๋ฏธ๊ตญ์— ์ƒ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ์œ„ํ•ด ํŠธ๋Ÿญ์„ ์šด์ „ํ•˜์‹œ๋Š” ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด
์•ฝ 3๋ฐฑ 5์‹ญ๋งŒ ๋ช…์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:42
in the United States;
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๊ทธ ๋ถ„๋“ค์ค‘ ์ผ๋ถ€๋Š” ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ž๋™์ฐจ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋กœ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ๋ฐ›๊ฒŒ ๋ ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:43
I think some of them are going to be affected by this technology.
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ง€๊ธˆ, ํœด๋จธ๋…ธ์ด๋“œ ๋กœ๋ด‡๋“ค์€ ์›์‹œ์ˆ˜์ค€์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:46
And right now, humanoid robots are still incredibly primitive.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์•„์ง ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜๋Š” ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:49
They can't do very much.
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05:51
But they're getting better quite quickly
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์•„์ฃผ ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ํ–ฅ์ƒ๋˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋ฌด์„ฑ์˜
05:53
and DARPA, which is the investment arm of the Defense Department,
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ํˆฌ์ž๋ฅผ ๋‹ด๋‹นํ•˜๋Š” ๋ฏธ๊ตญ๋ฐฉ๊ณ ๋“ฑ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๊ธฐํš์ฒญ(DARPA)์ด
05:57
is trying to accelerate their trajectory.
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ํœด๋จธ๋…ธ์ด๋“œ ๋กœ๋ด‡ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์— ๋ฐ•์ฐจ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€ํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
05:59
So, in short, yeah, the droids are coming for our jobs.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์š”์•ฝํ•˜๋ฉด, ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋“ค์ด ์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ์ง์—…์„ธ๊ณ„๋กœ ๋“ค์–ด์˜ค๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๋‹จ๊ธฐ๊ฐ„์œผ๋กœ ๋ณด๋ฉด, ์ฐฝ์—…์„ ๊ถŒ์žฅํ•˜๊ณ ,
06:05
In the short term, we can stimulate job growth
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๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜ ์‹œ์„ค์— ํˆฌ์žํ•˜์—ฌ ๊ณ ์šฉ ์„ฑ์žฅ๋ฅ ์„ ์ฆ์ง„์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
06:08
by encouraging entrepreneurship
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06:10
and by investing in infrastructure,
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์•„์ง์€ ๋กœ๋ด‡๋“ค์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”
06:12
because the robots today still aren't very good at fixing bridges.
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๋ชจ๋“  ๋ฌธ์ œ๋ฅผ ํ•ด๊ฒฐํ•˜์ง€๋Š” ๋ชปํ•˜๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:15
But in the not-too-long-term,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋ฉ€์ง€ ์•Š์€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์—, ์ œ ์ƒ๊ฐ์—๋Š” ์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๊ณ„์‹œ๋Š” ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด
06:17
I think within the lifetimes of most of the people in this room,
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์‚ด์•„๊ณ„์‹œ๋Š” ๋™์•ˆ์—, ์•„์ฃผ ์ƒ์‚ฐ์ ์ธ ๊ฒฝ์ œํ™˜๊ฒฝ์œผ๋กœ
06:21
we're going to transition into an economy that is very productive,
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์˜ฎ๊ฒจ๊ฐ€๊ฒ ์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—์„œ๋Š” ๋”์ด์ƒ
06:25
but that just doesn't need a lot of human workers.
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๋งŽ์€ ์ธ๊ฐ„ ๋…ธ๋™์ž๋ฅผ ํ•„์š”๋กœ ํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์„ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
06:28
And managing that transition is going to be the greatest challenge
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์œผ๋กœ ์˜ฎ๊ฒจ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด
์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ๊ฐ€ ํ˜„์žฌ ์ง๋ฉดํ•œ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ๋„์ „์ด ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:31
that our society faces.
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06:32
Voltaire summarized why; he said,
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๋ณผํ…Œ๋ฅด(Voltaire, ํ”„๋ž‘์Šค ์ฒ ํ•™์ž)๊ฐ€ ๊ทธ ์ด์œ ๋ฅผ ๋งํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:34
"Work saves us from three great evils: boredom, vice and need."
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"๋…ธ๋™์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์„ธ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์•…์œผ๋กœ ๋ถ€ํ„ฐ ๊ตฌ์›ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๊ทธ ์„ธ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ๋‚˜ํƒœํ•จ, ๋ถ€๋„๋•ํ•จ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์š•๊ตฌ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
06:40
But despite this challenge --
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋„์ „์—๋„ ๋ถˆ๊ตฌํ•˜๊ณ , ์ €๋Š” ๊ฐœ์ธ์ ์œผ๋กœ,
06:42
personally, I'm still a huge digital optimist,
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์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๋ฌธ๋ช…์˜ ๋‚™๊ด€๋ก ์ž์ด๊ณ ,
06:45
and I am supremely confident
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š” ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋“ค์ด
06:47
that the digital technologies that we're developing now
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ด์ƒ์ ์ธ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜๋กœ ์•ˆ๋‚ดํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ๊ตณ๊ฒŒ ๋ฏฟ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
06:50
are going to take us into a Utopian future,
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06:52
not a dystopian future.
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๊ทธ ์ด์œ ๋ฅผ ์„ค๋ช…ํ•ด ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
06:54
And to explain why,
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06:55
I want to pose a ridiculously broad question.
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์–ด์ฒ˜๊ตฌ๋‹ˆ ์—†๊ฒŒ ๊ด‘๋ฒ”์œ„ํ•œ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์„ ํ•ด๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
06:58
I want to ask:
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์ธ๊ฐ„ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์ด
06:59
what have been the most important developments in human history?
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๋ฌด์—‡์ž…๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
07:03
Now, I want to share some of the answers that I've gotten
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์ž, ์ด ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๋Œ€๋‹ต์„ ๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€
๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ ค ๋ณด๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ด ์งˆ๋ฌธ์€ ์ฐธ ์ข‹์€ ์งˆ๋ฌธ์ด๊ณ 
07:06
in response to this question.
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07:07
It's a wonderful question to ask and start an endless debate about,
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๋์—†๋Š” ๋…ผ์Ÿ์„ ์ผ์œผํ‚ต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
07:10
because some people are going to bring up
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์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๋™์„œ์–‘์˜ ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด
07:12
systems of philosophy in both the West and the East
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์„ธ์ƒ์„ ์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๊ฒŒ ํ•œ
07:15
that have changed how a lot of people think about the world.
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์ฒ ํ•™์ ์ธ ์ฒด๊ณ„์— ๋Œ€ํ•œ ๋…ผ์ ์„ ๋„์ง‘์–ด ๋‚ด๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ด์ฃ .
07:19
And then other people will say,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
07:20
"No, actually, the big stories, the big developments
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"์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ์‚ฌ์‹ค, ๊ฐ€์žฅ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์€ ์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ์ข…๊ต์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,"
07:23
are the founding of the world's major religions,
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"์ข…๊ต๋Š” ๋ฌธ๋ช…์„ ๋ณ€ํ™”์‹œ์ผฐ๊ณ ,"
07:25
which have changed civilizations and have changed and influenced
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"์…€์ˆ˜ ์—†์ด ๋งŽ์€ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์‚ด์•„๊ฐ€๋Š” ๋ฐฉ์‹์—"
07:29
how countless people are living their lives."
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"์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ฃผ๊ณ  ๋ฐ”๊พธ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.", ๋˜ ์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€,
07:31
And then some other folk will say,
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07:33
"Actually, what changes civilizations,
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"์‚ฌ์‹ค์ƒ ๋ฌธ๋ช…์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๊ณ ,"
07:35
what modifies them and what changes people's lives are empires,
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"์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ์‚ถ์„ ๋ฐ”๊พผ ๊ฒƒ์€"
"์ œ๊ตญ์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค., ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ธ๊ฐ„ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€"
07:40
so the great developments in human history
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"์ „์Ÿ์„ ํ†ตํ•œ ์นจ๋žต์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค." ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
07:43
are stories of conquest and of war."
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07:45
And then some cheery soul usually always pipes up and says,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์žฌ๋ฐŒ๋Š” ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
07:48
"Hey, don't forget about plagues!"
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"์ €๊ธฐ์š”, ์ „์—ผ๋ณ‘๋„ ์žˆ์ž–์•„์š”." (์›ƒ์Œ)
07:50
(Laughter)
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์ด ์งˆ๋ฌธ์— ๊ธ์ •์ ์ธ ๋‹ต๋ณ€๋„ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
07:54
There are some optimistic answers to this question,
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07:56
so some people will bring up the Age of Exploration
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์–ด๋–ค ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ํƒํ—˜์˜ ์‹œ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ์–ธ๊ธ‰ํ•˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์„ธ๊ณ„์˜ ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ์„ฑ์„ ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜์ง€์š”.
07:59
and the opening up of the world.
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08:00
Others will talk about intellectual achievements in disciplines like math
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์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ์„ธ์ƒ์„ ์‚ฌ๋Š”๋ฐ
๋งŽ์€ ๋„์›€์„ ์ค€ ์ˆ˜ํ•™๊ณผ ๊ฐ™์€ ์ง€์ ์ธ ์„ฑ์ทจ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•˜๊ณ ,
08:04
that have helped us get a better handle on the world,
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์–ด๋–ค ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์€ ๊ณผํ•™๊ณผ ์˜ˆ์ˆ ์ด
08:07
and other folk will talk about periods when there was a deep flourishing
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๋ฒˆ์ฐฝํ–ˆ๋˜ ์‹œ๋Œ€๋ฅผ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐํ•˜๊ธฐ๋„ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:10
of the arts and sciences.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋…ผ์Ÿ์€ ๋Š์ž„์—†์ด ๊ณ„์† ์ง„ํ–‰ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:12
So this debate will go on and on.
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08:13
It's an endless debate
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๋์—†์€ ๋…ผ์Ÿ์ด๊ณ , ์•„๋ฌด ๊ฒƒ๋„ ๊ฒฐ์ •๋œ๊ฒƒ์ด ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
08:15
and there's no conclusive, single answer to it.
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๋‹ต ํ•˜๋‚˜๋กœ ๋๋‚˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์ด ์ €๊ฐ™์€ ๋ฒ”์ƒ์ด๋ผ๋ฉด,
08:18
But if you're a geek like me,
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"๊ธ€์Ž„์š”, ๋ฐ์ดํ„ฐ์—๋Š” ๋ญ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋‚˜์™”๋‚˜์š”?" ๋ผ๊ณ  ๋งํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:20
you say, "Well, what do the data say?"
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08:22
And you start to do things
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ ๋Š” ๊ด€์‹ฌ์ด ์žˆ์„ ๋ฒ•ํ•œ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„ ๊ฐ™์€ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์ฃ ,
08:24
like graph things that we might be interested in --
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์˜ˆ๋ฅผ๋“ค์–ด, ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ธ๊ตฌ์ˆ˜๋ผ๋“ ๊ฐ€,
08:26
the total worldwide population, for example,
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์‚ฌํšŒ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์ด๋ผ๋“ ๊ฐ€,
08:30
or some measure of social development
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08:32
or the state of advancement of a society.
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์‚ฌํšŒ ๋ฐœ์ „ ์ƒํƒœ๋ผ๋“ ๊ฐ€,
08:34
And you start to plot the data, because, by this approach,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ๋ฐ์ดํƒ€๋ฅผ ํ‘œ๋กœ ๋‚˜ํƒ€๋‚ด๊ฒ ์ฃ , ์™œ๋ƒํ•˜๋ฉด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ ‘๊ทผ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์œผ๋กœ
์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์ƒ ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ์ด์Šˆ๋“ค์ด๋‚˜, ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ๋“ค์ด
08:39
the big stories, the big developments in human history,
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08:41
are the ones that will bend these curves a lot.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„ ๊ณก์„ ์„ ๋งŒ๋“ค๊ธฐ ๋•Œ๋ฌธ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
08:44
So when you do this and when you plot the data,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๊ทธ๋ž˜ํ”„๋ฅผ ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๋ฉด,
08:46
you pretty quickly come to some weird conclusions.
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ๊ฝค ๋นจ๋ฆฌ ์ด์ƒํ•œ ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์— ๋„๋‹ฌํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ๋ณด๋ฉด, ์•„๋ฌด๊ฒƒ๋„ ์—ฐ๊ด€์ด
08:49
You conclude, actually,
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08:50
that none of these things have mattered very much.
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์—†๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์„ ๋‚ด๊ฒŒ ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (์›ƒ์Œ)
08:53
(Laughter)
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์ด ๊ณก์„ ์— ์ด์ƒํ•œ ์ง“์„ ํ•œ ๊ฒƒ์€ ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (์›ƒ์Œ)
08:57
They haven't done a darn thing to the curves.
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09:00
There has been one story, one development in human history
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ํ•œ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์ด์œ ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์—์„œ
์ด ๊ณก์„ ์„ 90๋„๋กœ ๊บฝ์–ด์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์ด ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
09:05
that bent the curve, bent it just about 90 degrees,
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ๊ทธ๊ฒƒ์ด ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:08
and it is a technology story.
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09:11
The steam engine and the other associated technologies
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์‚ฐ์—…ํ˜๋ช… ๋‹น์‹œ์— ์ฆ๊ธฐ๊ธฐ๊ด€๊ณผ ๊ด€๋ จ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋“ค์ด
09:14
of the Industrial Revolution
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์„ธ์ƒ์„ ๋ฐ”๊พธ๊ณ 
09:16
changed the world and influenced human history so much,
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์ธ๊ฐ„ ์—ญ์‚ฌ์— ๋งŽ์€ ์˜ํ–ฅ์„ ์ฃผ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
09:19
that in the words of the historian Ian Morris,
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์—ญ์‚ฌํ•™์ž ์ด์•ˆ ๋ชจ๋ฆฌ์Šค(Ian Morris)์˜ ํ‘œํ˜„๋Œ€๋กœ,
09:21
"... they made mockery out of all that had come before."
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์ด์ „์˜ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ๋ชจ๋‘ ์šฐ์Šต๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค์–ด ๋ฒ„๋ฆฐ ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:25
And they did this by infinitely multiplying the power of our muscles,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ธ๊ฐ„ ์œก์ฒด์˜ ํ•œ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ทน๋ณตํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด
๋ฌดํ•œํ•œ ํž˜์„ ๋”ํ•ด์„œ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ๋ฐœ์ „์„ ์ด๋ฃจ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:29
overcoming the limitations of our muscles.
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09:31
Now, what we're in the middle of now
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์ด์ œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ธ๊ฐ„์˜ ๋‡Œ๊ฐ€
09:34
is overcoming the limitations of our individual brains
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๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š” ํ•œ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ทน๋ณตํ•˜๊ธฐ ์œ„ํ•ด์„œ
09:37
and infinitely multiplying our mental power.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ •์‹ ์  ํž˜์„ ๋ฌดํ•œํžˆ ๋”ํ•ด๊ฐ€๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
09:40
How can this not be as big a deal
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์–ด๋–ป๊ฒŒ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ์˜ ์œก์ฒด์ ์ธ ํ•œ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๊ทน๋ณตํ•  ๋งŒํผ
09:43
as overcoming the limitations of our muscles?
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ํฐ ํž˜์ด ์•„๋‹์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๊นŒ?
09:46
So at the risk of repeating myself a little bit,
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์ž๊พธ ๊ฐ™์€ ๋ง์„ ๋˜ํ’€์ดํ•ด์„œ ๋ง์„ ํ•˜๋”๋ผ๋„,
09:48
when I look at what's going on with digital technology these days,
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์š”์ฆ˜ ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์— ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ผ์„ ๋ณด๋ฉด,
09:52
we are not anywhere near through with this journey.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ด ์—ฌํ–‰์„ ๋‹ค ๋๋‚ด์ง€ ์•Š์•˜์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
09:55
And when I look at what is happening to our economies and our societies,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‚ฌํšŒ์™€ ๊ฒฝ์ œ์— ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ๋ณด๋ฉด,
์ œ ๊ฒฐ๋ก ์€ ์•„์ง ๋งŽ์€ ๊ฒƒ์„ ๋ณด์ง€ ๋ชปํ–ˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
09:59
my single conclusion is that we ain't seen nothing yet.
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์ •๋ง ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ๋‚ ์€ ๋ฏธ๋ž˜์— ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:02
The best days are really ahead.
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10:04
Let me give you a couple examples.
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๋ช‡๊ฐ€์ง€ ์˜ˆ๋ฅผ ๋ง์”€๋“œ๋ฆฌ๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
๊ฒฝ์ œ๋Š” ์—๋„ˆ์ง€๋‚˜ ์ž๋ณธ์œผ๋กœ ๊ตด๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
10:06
Economies don't run on energy.
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10:08
They don't run on capital, they don't run on labor.
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๋…ธ๋™๋ ฅ์œผ๋กœ๋„ ๊ตด๋Ÿฌ๊ฐ€๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ด ์•„๋‹™๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฒฝ์ œ๋Š” ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋กœ ๋ฐœ์ „ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:11
Economies run on ideas.
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ํ˜์‹์ ์ธ ์ž‘์—…, ์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ์ œ์•ˆํ•˜๋Š” ์ผ๋“ค์ด
10:14
So the work of innovation, the work of coming up with new ideas,
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๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ฐ•๋ ฅํ•œ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด๊ณ 
10:17
is some of the most powerful, most fundamental work that we can do
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๊ฒฝ์ œํ™œ๋™์—์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฐ€์žฅ ๊ธฐ๋ณธ์ ์ธ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ˜์‹ ์— ์ ์‘ํ•ด ์˜ค๋˜ ๋ฐฉ๋ฒ•์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:21
in an economy.
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10:22
And this is kind of how we used to do innovation.
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ๋น„์Šทํ•˜๊ฒŒ ์ƒ๊ธด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ๋งŽ์ด ๋ณผ ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
10:25
We'd find a bunch of fairly similar-looking people ...
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10:28
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
์ด ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์„ ์—˜๋ฆฌํŠธ ๊ธฐ๊ด€์—์„œ ๋นผ์™€์„œ,
10:32
We'd take them out of elite institutions,
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10:34
we'd put them into other elite institutions
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๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์—˜๋ฆฌํŠธ ๊ธฐ๊ด€์— ๋ณด๋‚ด๊ณ , ํ˜์‹ ์„ ๊ธฐ๋‹ค๋ ค ์™”์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:36
and we'd wait for the innovation.
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10:37
Now --
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
10:38
(Laughter)
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10:41
as a white guy who spent his whole career at MIT and Harvard,
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MIT์™€ Harvard์—์„œ ๊ฒฝ๋ ฅ์„ ์Œ“์€ ๋ฐฑ์ธ์œผ๋กœ์จ
10:44
I've got no problem with this.
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์ €๋Š” ์ด๋ž˜๋„ ์ „ํ˜€ ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์—†์–ด์š”. (์›ƒ์Œ)
10:46
(Laughter)
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10:50
But some other people do,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์—๊ฒŒ๋Š” ๋ฌธ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์žˆ์–ด์š”. ๊ทธ๋“ค์€ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์„ธ๊ณ„๋ฅผ ๋ถ€์…”๋ฒ„๋ฆฌ๊ณ ,
10:51
and they've kind of crashed the party
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ํ˜์‹ ์˜ ํ˜•์‹์„ ํ’€์–ด๋ฒ„๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
10:53
and loosened up the dress code of innovation.
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10:55
(Laughter)
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(์›ƒ์Œ)
10:56
So here are the winners of a Topcoder programming challenge,
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์—ฌ๊ธฐ ํ”„๋กœ๊ทธ๋ž˜๋ฐ ๋Œ€ํšŒ์˜ ์šฐ์Šน์ž๋“ค์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
11:00
and I assure you that nobody cares
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์—ฌ๋Ÿฌ๋ถ„๋“ค์€ ์•„๋ฌด๋„ ์ด ์นœ๊ตฌ๋“ค์ด ์–ด๋””์„œ ๋ฐฐ์šฐ๊ณ  ์ž๋ž๋Š”์ง€
11:02
where these kids grew up, where they went to school,
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๋ชจ๋ฅผ๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์–ด๋–ค ์นœ๊ตฌ๋“ค์ธ์ง€ ๋ชจ๋ฆ…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:06
or what they look like.
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๋ชจ๋“  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ์‹ ๊ฒฝ์“ฐ๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์€
11:08
All anyone cares about is the quality of the work, the quality of the ideas.
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์–ผ๋งˆ๋‚˜ ์–‘์งˆ์˜ ์ผ๊ณผ ์•„์ด๋””์–ด๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๋Š๋ƒ ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:11
And over and over again, we see this happening
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋ ‡๊ฒŒ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ๋ฐฐ์–‘๋˜๋Š” ์„ธ์ƒ์—์„œ
11:14
in the technology-facilitated world.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ํ˜„์ƒ์„ ๊ณ„์†ํ•ด์„œ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:16
The work of innovation is becoming more open,
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ํ˜์‹ ์€ ์ ์  ๋” ๊ฐœ๋ฐฉ๋˜๊ณ ,
ํฌ๊ด„์ ์ด๊ณ , ํˆฌ๋ช…ํ•ด์ง€๊ณ , ๋Šฅ๋ ฅ ๊ธฐ๋ฐ˜์ด ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
11:19
more inclusive, more transparent and more merit-based,
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11:22
and that's going to continue no matter what MIT and Harvard think of it,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  MIT๋‚˜ Harvard์—์„œ ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ƒ๊ฐ์„ ํ•˜๋“ ์ง€
๊ณ„์† ์ง€์†๋  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ , ๊ทธ ๊ฐœ๋ฐœ์— ๋Œ€ํ•ด ๋” ์ด์ƒ ํ–‰๋ณต ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์—†์„๊ฒ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:26
and I couldn't be happier about that development.
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11:29
I hear once in a while, "OK, I'll grant you that,
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์–ผ๋งŒ ์ „์— ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ๋ฅผ ๋“ค์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
"์ข‹์•„์š”, ๋‹น์‹ ์˜ ๋ง์„ ์ธ์ •ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์€ ์—ฌ์ „ํžˆ ๋ถ€์œ ํ•œ ์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ๋„๊ตฌ์ผ ๋ฟ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค",
11:32
but technology is still a tool for the rich world,
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11:35
and what's not happening,
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"๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๋„๊ตฌ๋“ค์€ ์ธ๊ฐ„ ์‚ถ์˜ ๋ฐ‘๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ๊นŒ์ง€"
11:36
these digital tools are not improving the lives
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"ํ–ฅ์ƒ์‹œํ‚ฌ ์ˆ˜ ์—†์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
11:39
of people at the bottom of the pyramid."
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11:41
And I want to say to that very clearly: nonsense.
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์ €๋Š” ๊ทธ๋Ÿฐ ๋ง์—๋Š” ๋ถ„๋ช…ํžˆ ๋ง๋„ ์•ˆ๋œ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ถ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ธ๊ฐ„ ์‚ถ์˜ ๋ฐ‘๋ฐ”๋‹ฅ์€ ์‚ฌ์‹ค ๋งŽ์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์˜ ๋„์›€์„ ๋ฐ›๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
11:44
The bottom of the pyramid is benefiting hugely from technology.
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11:47
The economist Robert Jensen did this wonderful study a while back
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๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™์ž ๋กœ๋ฒ„ํŠธ ์˜Œ์Šจ(Robert Jensen)์€
์ธ๋„์˜ ์ผ€๋ž„๋ผ(Kerala) ์–ด์ดŒ๋งˆ์„์—์„œ ์ฒ˜์Œ ํœด๋Œ€ํฐ์„
11:51
where he watched, in great detail,
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11:53
what happened to the fishing villages of Kerala, India,
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์‚ฌ์šฉํ–ˆ์„ ๋•Œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚ฌ๋˜ ์ผ์„ ๋ณด๊ณ ๋Š”
11:56
when they got mobile phones for the very first time.
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์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ์—ฐ๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ํ–ˆ์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
11:59
And when you write for the Quarterly Journal of Economics,
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ฒฝ์ œํ•™ ์ €๋„์— ๊ธ€์„ ์“ธ ๋•Œ๋Š”,
12:02
you have to use very dry and very circumspect language.
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๋งค์šฐ ๊ฑด์กฐํ•˜๊ณ  ์‹ ์ค‘ํ•œ ์–ธ์–ด๋ฅผ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•ด์•ผ๋งŒ ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
12:05
But when I read his paper,
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ ์ œ๊ฐ€ ์ด ๋…ผ๋ฌธ์„ ์ฝ์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ, ์˜Œ์Šจ์ด ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์—๊ฒŒ
12:06
I kind of feel Jensen is trying to scream at us
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์†Œ๋ฆฌ๋ฅผ ์ง€๋ฅธ๋‹ค๊ณ  ๋Š๊ผˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๋ณด์„ธ์š”, ์ด๊ฒƒ์€ ์ •๋ง ํฐ ์ด์•ผ๊ธฐ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:08
and say, "Look, this was a big deal.
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๊ฐ€๊ฒฉ์ด ์•ˆ์ •ํ™”๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๊ฒฝ์ œ์  ์‚ถ์„ ๊ณ„ํšํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:11
Prices stabilized, so people could plan their economic lives.
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12:14
Waste was not reduced -- it was eliminated.
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๋‚ญ๋น„๋Š” ์ค„์–ด๋“ค์ง€ ์•Š์•˜๊ณ , ์—†์–ด์ ธ ๋ฒ„๋ ธ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์š”์ฆ˜ ์ด ๋งˆ์„์˜ ๊ตฌ๋งค์ž์™€ ํŒ๋งค์ž์˜ ์‚ถ์ด
12:19
And the lives of both the buyers and the sellers
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12:21
in these villages measurably improved."
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์ƒ๋‹นํžˆ ํ–ฅ์ƒ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
์ €๋Š” ์ด๊ฒƒ์ด ์˜Œ์Šจ์ด ๊ทน๋‹จ์ ์œผ๋กœ ์šด์ด ์ข‹์•˜๊ฑฐ๋‚˜
12:24
Now, what I don't think is that Jensen got extremely lucky
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12:27
and happened to land in the one set of villages
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๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ๋ชจ๋“  ๊ฒƒ์„ ์ข‹๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“  ํ•œ์ง€์—ญ์—
๊ตญํ•œ๋˜์–ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚œ ์ผ์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜์ง€ ์•Š์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:30
where technology made things better.
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12:32
What happened instead is he very carefully documented
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์˜Œ์Šจ์€ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ์ด๋Ÿฐ ์ง€์—ญ์‚ฌํšŒ ํ™˜๊ฒฝ์—
๋„์ž…๋˜์—ˆ์„ ๋•Œ ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๋Š” ์ผ๋“ค์„ ์ง€์†์ ์œผ๋กœ
12:35
what happens over and over again when technology comes for the first time
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๋ฌธ์„œํ™” ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:39
to an environment and a community:
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์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์˜ ์‚ถ๊ณผ ๋ณต์ง€๋Š” ๊ธ‰์ž‘์Šค๋Ÿฝ๊ฒŒ ํ–ฅ์ƒ๋˜์—ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:41
the lives of people, the welfares of people, improve dramatically.
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ ์ด๋Ÿฐ ๋ชจ๋“  ์ฆ๊ฑฐ๋“ค์„ ์‚ดํŽด๋ณด๋ฉด์„œ, ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋“ค ์•ž์—
12:45
So as I look around at all the evidence
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12:46
and I think about the room that we have ahead of us,
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๋‚จ๊ฒจ์ง„ ์—ฌ์ง€๋ฅผ ์ƒ๊ฐํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค, ์ €๋Š” ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ์„ธ์ƒ์— ๋‚™๊ด€์ฃผ์˜์ž๊ฐ€
12:49
I become a huge digital optimist
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๋˜์—ˆ๊ณ , ๋ฌผ๋ฆฌํ•™์ž์ธ ํ”„๋ฆฌ๋งŒ ๋‹ค์ด์Šจ(Freeman Dyson)์ด ๋งํ•œ
12:51
and I start to think that this wonderful statement from the physicist Freeman Dyson
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์ด ํ›Œ๋ฅญํ•œ ๋ง์€ ๊ณผ์žฅ์ด ์•„๋‹ˆ๋ผ๊ณ  ์ƒ๊ฐํ•˜๊ธฐ ์‹œ์ž‘ํ–ˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:55
is actually not hyperbole.
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์ด ๋ง์€ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋ฌด์Šจ ์ผ์ด ์ผ์–ด๋‚˜๊ณ  ์žˆ๋Š”์ง€๋ฅผ ์ •ํ™•ํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•˜๊ณ  ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
12:57
This is an accurate assessment of what's going on.
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13:00
Our technologies are great gifts,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์€ ์ •๋ง ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•œ ์ถ•๋ณต์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
13:02
and we, right now, have the great good fortune
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๋ฐ”๋กœ ์ง€๊ธˆ ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๊ธฐ์ˆ ์ด ๋ฒˆ์„ฑํ•˜๊ณ ,
13:05
to be living at a time when digital technology is flourishing,
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์„ธ์ƒ์— ์ ์  ๋” ํผ์ ธ๋‚˜๊ฐ€๊ณ 
13:09
when it is broadening and deepening and becoming more profound
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๋”์šฑ๋” ์ค‘์š”ํ•œ ๋ถ€๋ถ„์ด ๋  ๋•Œ,
์šฐ๋ฆฌ ์‚ถ์— ๊ฐ€์žฅ ํฐ ์žฌ์‚ฐ์„ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ฒŒ ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
13:13
all around the world.
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13:14
So, yeah, the droids are taking our jobs,
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๊ทธ๋ž˜์„œ, ๋„ค.. ๊ธฐ๊ณ„๋‚˜ ์†Œํ”„ํŠธ์›จ์–ด๊ฐ€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์ง์—…์„ ๋Œ€์ฒดํ•˜๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
13:17
but focusing on that fact misses the point entirely.
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ํ•˜์ง€๋งŒ, ๊ทธ ์‚ฌ์‹ค์€ ๋…ผ์ ์„ ์™„์ „ํžˆ ์žƒ๊ณ  ์žˆ๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์— ์ฃผ์˜ํ•ด์•ผํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:21
The point is that then we are freed up to do other things,
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๊ทธ ๋…ผ์ ์€ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ๋‹ค๋ฅธ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ๋„๋ก ์ž์œ ๋กœ์›Œ์ง„๋‹ค๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
13:24
and what we're going to do, I am very confident,
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๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์ž์‹ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•ด์„œ ์šฐ๋ฆฌ๊ฐ€ ํ•  ๊ฒƒ์€
13:27
what we're going to do is reduce poverty
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์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ๋นˆ๊ณค๊ณผ ๊ณ ๋‚œ์Šค๋Ÿฌ์šด ์ผ๋“ค
13:29
and drudgery and misery around the world.
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์ค„์ด๋Š” ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:32
I'm very confident we're going to learn to live more lightly on the planet,
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ๋Š” ์ง€๊ตฌ์ƒ์—์„œ ๋” ์‰ฝ๊ฒŒ ์‚ฌ๋Š” ๋ฒ•์„ ๋ฐฐ์šธ๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
๊ทธ๋ฆฌ๊ณ  ์‚ฌ๋žŒ๋“ค์ด ๋””์ง€ํ„ธ ๋„๊ตฌ๋ฅผ ๊ฐ€์ง€๊ณ  ํ•  ์ผ๋“ค์€
13:36
and I am extremely confident that what we're going to do
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13:39
with our new digital tools
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์ •๋ง ๋Œ€๋‹จํ•  ๊ฒƒ์ด๊ณ ,
13:41
is going to be so profound and so beneficial
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์ด์ „์— ์žˆ๋˜ ๋ชจ๋“ ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์„ ์šฐ์Šต๊ฒŒ ๋งŒ๋“ค ์ •๋„๋กœ
13:44
that it's going to make a mockery out of everything that came before.
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๋„์›€์ด ๋˜๋Š” ๊ฒƒ๋“ค์ด๋ผ๊ณ  ์ž์‹ ์žˆ๊ฒŒ ๋งํ•  ์ˆ˜ ์žˆ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค.
13:47
I'm going to leave the last word
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์ €๋Š” ๋””์ง€ํ‹€ ์„ธ์ƒ์˜ ์ง„๋ณด์— ์ตœ์ „๋ฐฉ์— ์žˆ๋Š”
13:49
to a guy who had a front-row seat for digital progress,
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์นœ๊ตฌ์—๊ฒŒ ๋งˆ์ง€๋ง‰ ๋ง์„ ํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค,
13:51
our old friend Ken Jennings.
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์šฐ๋ฆฌ์˜ ์˜ค๋žœ ์นœ๊ตฌ์ธ ์ผ„ ์ œ๋‹์Šค๋Š” ์ €์™€ ํ•จ๊ป˜ ์ผํ•˜๋Š”๋ฐ์š”,
13:53
I'm with him; I'm going to echo his words:
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๊ทธ ์นœ๊ตฌ์˜ ๋ง์„ ๋Œ€์‹  ์ „ํ•˜๊ฒ ์Šต๋‹ˆ๋‹ค:
13:55
"I, for one, welcome our new computer overlords."
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"์ƒˆ๋กœ์šด ์ปดํ“จํ„ฐ ์ง€๋ฐฐ์ž์˜ ์„ธ์ƒ์— ์˜ค์‹ ๊ฒƒ์„ ํ™˜์˜ํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค."
13:58
(Laughter)
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13:59
Thanks very much.
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๊ฐ์‚ฌํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. (๋ฐ•์ˆ˜)
14:01
(Applause)
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์ด ์›น์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ ์ •๋ณด

์ด ์‚ฌ์ดํŠธ๋Š” ์˜์–ด ํ•™์Šต์— ์œ ์šฉํ•œ YouTube ๋™์˜์ƒ์„ ์†Œ๊ฐœํ•ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์ „ ์„ธ๊ณ„ ์ตœ๊ณ ์˜ ์„ ์ƒ๋‹˜๋“ค์ด ๊ฐ€๋ฅด์น˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ˆ˜์—…์„ ๋ณด๊ฒŒ ๋  ๊ฒƒ์ž…๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๊ฐ ๋™์˜์ƒ ํŽ˜์ด์ง€์— ํ‘œ์‹œ๋˜๋Š” ์˜์–ด ์ž๋ง‰์„ ๋”๋ธ” ํด๋ฆญํ•˜๋ฉด ๊ทธ๊ณณ์—์„œ ๋™์˜์ƒ์ด ์žฌ์ƒ๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ๋น„๋””์˜ค ์žฌ์ƒ์— ๋งž์ถฐ ์ž๋ง‰์ด ์Šคํฌ๋กค๋ฉ๋‹ˆ๋‹ค. ์˜๊ฒฌ์ด๋‚˜ ์š”์ฒญ์ด ์žˆ๋Š” ๊ฒฝ์šฐ ์ด ๋ฌธ์˜ ์–‘์‹์„ ์‚ฌ์šฉํ•˜์—ฌ ๋ฌธ์˜ํ•˜์‹ญ์‹œ์˜ค.

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